The Official Aotearoa Politics Thread

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Guy Smiley
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Luxon? :lol: fuck me, the Black Hole of Inspiration.

Anyway, some facts to tide you over the days ahead.

https://michaelwest.com.au/murdochs-wai ... ong-again/

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As the world is thanking Jacinda Ardern profoundly for her 14 years in New Zealand’s Parliament and more than five as prime minister, a large number of white male scribes have joined in a frenzy of extraordinarily bitter attacks. Alan Austin reports on her economic performance.

*********************

At 6.4 per cent, New Zealand’s annual economic growth, far from being “on the verge of a recession” is double the rate of the Netherlands, South Korea, Italy, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom. It is three times that of the USA and four times Japan, Germany, France and Switzerland.

When Ardern became prime minister in October 2017, New Zealand’s annual GDP growth was a modest 3.0 per cent which ranked 19th in the OECD.
Employment

The jobless rate has been at 3.4 per cent or lower since June 2021. Between September 2021 and March 2022, the rate was 3.2 per cent, the lowest since records have been kept.

That ranks fifth in the OECD, beaten only by Switzerland, Norway, Denmark and Japan.

Job participation had reached an all-time high of 71.2 per cent just before Ardern took office. She kept this within what seems to be an optimum band between 69.9 and 71.2 per cent throughout her tenure, until the third quarter last year, when it reached a new record high of 71.7 per cent.

Labour productivity was a modest 124.1 when Ardern took office. This has increased steadily since then, except for a blip during the Covid recession, and hit a new peak of 132.02 in the latest quarter.

Wages have increased satisfactorily from NZ$30.51 per hour in Ardern’s first quarter to NZ$37.93 in the last measure published.
Further fun facts and figures

New Zealand’s current inflation rate is 7.2 per cent, just below the peak of 7.3 in the previous quarter. This is well below the OECD average of 11.6 per cent, ranking around eleventh. Given the global challenges, it is quite false to characterise this as “soaring”.

Ardern’s Government has shone in budget discipline, with healthy budget surpluses in 2017, 2018 and 2019. The pandemic recession year caused a deficit of 7.3 per cent of GDP, with that improving substantially in 2021 to just 1.3 per cent of GDP.

******************

Finally, the rankings on economic freedom compiled by Heritage Foundation in the USA give the Ardern administration huge bragging rights.

Heritage ranked New Zealand the top economy in the OECD in four of the last five years. Global ranking has fluctuated between second and fifth.

If the right wing media read these numbers when the Nationals were in office, they would have proclaimed them from the mountain tops.
Room for improvement

This is not to claim all has gone perfectly. Youth unemployment has been above ten per cent since records have been kept in 2004 until the last quarter of 2021, and above 13 per cent for much of that time. It tumbled to 8.83 per cent in 2021and has remained below 9.6 per cent since. Still too high.

Other variables which could do better include low income wages, the distribution of wealth and income and the value of the Kiwi dollar. Concerns about emissions reduction also remain.
Comprehending the critics

Could it be that Ardern is young, female, candid and honest, widely-respected abroad, genuinely loved at home, an open and proud socialist, and a winner? In other words, the direct opposite of Donald Trump, Scott Morrison and Boris Johnson? Could it be that they cannot abide her succeeding in economic management where their heroes have all dismally failed?

Is this why they must shamelessly falsify the record? Because falsify it, they have.
Monkey Magic
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Guy Smiley wrote: Thu Jan 19, 2023 5:14 pm
Flockwitt wrote: Thu Jan 19, 2023 4:51 pm
Snooze wrote: Thu Jan 19, 2023 4:12 pm

I was gonna mention the Mosque too. She had some challenging times to navigate and really did well - in my humble opinion.

I might have to agree with GS on the outlook for NZ. Maybe not a good time for me to be 'hoping' to move back home. :cry:
It is what it is, inflation, struggling economies in key overseas markets, socio-economic issues. We need strong leadership of a different type going forward, not sure where it's coming from either.
It’s time for serious reform and neither of the two majors appear to have the least inclination to do anything other than slightly different versions of what’s been done for the last 30 odd years.

Investment based pretty much entirely on property with no real support for serious research and development investment.

Inequality as a lifestyle choice of the nation.

30 or so years worth of infrastructure development to catch up on.

Immigration to favour a vocal sector of business that wants cheap labour, adding pressure on accomodation and practically non existent public transport.


It’s a basket case and there will be some sort of collapse that may be as mild as a recession or possibly worse. Imagine if China stopped buy milk products.
Simeon Brown has already come out and said light rail in Auckland is gone. Great so that's how many millions wasted so far, and no other public transport plan to replace it. It's OK we'll just keep throwing more cars onto the same clogged roads
Gumboot
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EnergiseR2 wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 9:06 am There is an argument she is fucking off when the real business of government is about to take off namely the economy stupid. She got handy numbers those being looking sad about stuff and covid was a piece of absolute piss for NZ.
It's a piss weak argument, then. She displayed outstanding leadership when it mattered most.
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Guy Smiley
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EnergiseR2 wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 9:06 am There is an argument she is fucking off when the real business of government is about to take off namely the economy stupid. She got handy numbers those being looking sad about stuff and covid was a piece of absolute piss for NZ.
I was watching some short clip the other day, some random Irish stand up comic talking about how stupid in Ireland goes from eejit to gobshite.
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JM2K6
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Guy Smiley wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 12:23 pm
EnergiseR2 wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 9:06 am There is an argument she is fucking off when the real business of government is about to take off namely the economy stupid. She got handy numbers those being looking sad about stuff and covid was a piece of absolute piss for NZ.
I was watching some short clip the other day, some random Irish stand up comic talking about how stupid in Ireland goes from eejit to gobshite.
ER's commitment to the bit certainly rivals any stand-up doing the comedy circuit grind.
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Steaking and ER are not really something I want to contemplate tbf :sick:
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Guy Smiley
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Certain Navigator
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Guy Smiley wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 2:31 am Luxon? :lol: fuck me, the Black Hole of Inspiration.

Anyway, some facts to tide you over the days ahead.

Well, they're facts in the sense that the raw numbers quoted are correct, but the interpretations are, shall we say, courageous. *One quarter* of nominal GDP growth, measured over a period that began when NZ was in lockdown. All that does is tell us what a disastrous effect the covid policy had on economic activity.

As for building consents, it's again very dangerous indeed to try and generalise from just two observations. But if one was honestly game to do so, all it tells us is that covid policy — which confused a supply shock with a demand shock — drove house prices into the stratosphere and supply has responded accordingly.

The rest of it, presumably produced by a socialist hack, is in a similar misinformation vein.
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Guy Smiley
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presumably ************ misinformation

classic
Gumboot
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Congrats, Chippy and Carmel.

Jacinda can no doubt pick and choose from a long list of possible next steps, but NZ Rugby could do a lot worse than creating a new position specifically for her - Director of Succession Planning.
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Calculon
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As the world is thanking Jacinda Ardern profoundly for her 14 years in New Zealand’s Parliament
:lolno:
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Guy Smiley
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Blathering
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JM2K6
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Certain Navigator wrote: Sun Jan 22, 2023 3:46 am
Guy Smiley wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 2:31 am Luxon? :lol: fuck me, the Black Hole of Inspiration.

Anyway, some facts to tide you over the days ahead.

Well, they're facts in the sense that the raw numbers quoted are correct, but the interpretations are, shall we say, courageous. *One quarter* of nominal GDP growth, measured over a period that began when NZ was in lockdown. All that does is tell us what a disastrous effect the covid policy had on economic activity.

As for building consents, it's again very dangerous indeed to try and generalise from just two observations. But if one was honestly game to do so, all it tells us is that covid policy — which confused a supply shock with a demand shock — drove house prices into the stratosphere and supply has responded accordingly.

The rest of it, presumably produced by a socialist hack, is in a similar misinformation vein.
Huh. While it looks like Covid certainly had an effect, there's been a drop in recent times that takes it right back to where it would've been following pre-Covid trends over the last 10 years: https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/housing-index
Gumboot
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EnergiseR2 wrote: Mon Jan 23, 2023 4:10 pm
Guy Smiley wrote: Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:02 amBlathering
I must introduce you to my privately school educated Trotskist brother. He was mad for a lockdown as well. Got his authoritarian juices flowing
Yeah well, as someone who had to cope with elderly, infirm parents during the pandemic, I'm very grateful for the 'go hard and go early' approach. Thank fuck we didn't have an arse-clown like Boris or Donald in charge.

Bit of a silly thing to be trolling about, Shirley?
Gumboot
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Fair enough, but I really don't see what 'authoritarian juices' has got to do with it when the vast majority of Kiwis bought into the govt's approach as necessary for the greater good... and Labour subsequently won the 2020 election in a landslide. That was a free and fair election, btw. :wink:
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Guy Smiley
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He's just trolling.

It's an interesting and kinda plaintive whine though... all those puir wee children who have suffered so much as a result of lockdowns and the rest would have been so much better off watching scores of people fall seriously ill and / or die as a result of an unchecked virus running free in their communities.
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Ymx
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New Zealand is generally pretty tight knit, and toes the company line, so not surprising to see all the gushing for Jacinda. Even the papers toe the line, and I think were paid to.

I think as outsiders from democracies some of her messaging was terrifying how she delivered her authoritarian threats. All with a smile, made it seem all the more evil.



*Cue the lefty abuse and venom
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Calculon
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I read she had a 29% approval rating, so apparently not so much gushing from the Kiwis anymore
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Calculon
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EnergiseR2 wrote: Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:58 pm I wasn't trolling. Different strokes for different folks. I remained consistent on covid from the very start so my conscience is clear. I said it was a massive overreaction and the harm done by said overreaction would last years because of other illnesses and the impact on kids. I might just have been right.
I can understand the rationale for the introduction of lockdowns. How effective they were is another matter, but this would also vary considerably on the context, and I also think that many people too easily dismissed the socio-economic cost of them. I also feel that once the vunerable (elderly and immuno compromised) had the opportunity to be fully vaccinated restrictions in general should have been lifted.
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Tichtheid
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Calculon wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:58 am I read she had a 29% approval rating, so apparently not so much gushing from the Kiwis anymore

The 29% was apparently higher than any other potential candidate for PM
Prime minister Jacinda Ardern is still the most popular choice for prime minister, but her approval rating dropped slightly – by 1% to 29% – her lowest result since August 2017, just before she became prime minister.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... poll-shows

After nearly six years most politicians will suffer lowering public approval, those outside a cultish type following like Trump anyway.
Gumboot
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But how can you possibly ace your response to an unprecedented disaster? All you can do, at best, is mitigate the consequences to the lowest possible death count.
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Calculon
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Tichtheid wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:33 am
Calculon wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:58 am I read she had a 29% approval rating, so apparently not so much gushing from the Kiwis anymore

The 29% was apparently higher than any other potential candidate for PM
Prime minister Jacinda Ardern is still the most popular choice for prime minister, but her approval rating dropped slightly – by 1% to 29% – her lowest result since August 2017, just before she became prime minister.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... poll-shows

After nearly six years most politicians will suffer lowering public approval, those outside a cultish type following like Trump anyway.
5 years and 1 month to be exact, but it seems all the recent polls indicated that her party will lose the next election and that most Kiwis thought the government is moving in the wrong direction. So while most Kiwis were indeed gushing over her when she was closing New Zealand's border and telling them to stay at home, it doesn't seem to me to be the case anymore.
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Tichtheid
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Your choice of language makes it obvious that you're not a neutral observer on this

Also, PR voting systems make it easier to unseat an incumbent politician.
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Calculon
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I was being slightly facetious, and I'm not really in a position to judge her success as a politician. From the little I've seen at least she seem to be a genuinely nice person if a little sanctimonious. She's obviously also had to put up with some ridiculous shit that comes from being a female politician. Like that Kiwi journalist who asked her if the reason she's meeting the Prime Minister of Finland is because they're both young women who like to gossip about men and talk about make-up.
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Guy Smiley
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Ymx wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:20 am New Zealand is generally pretty tight knit, and toes the company line, so not surprising to see all the gushing for Jacinda. Even the papers toe the line, and I think were paid to.

I think as outsiders from democracies some of her messaging was terrifying how she delivered her authoritarian threats. All with a smile, made it seem all the more evil.



*Cue the lefty abuse and venom
You’re well wide of the mark there. As in, so fucking wrong it’s funny.

Sorry you were so terrified though, bro.

The papers have been pretty united in slagging the government for the last year or so, by the way.
Last edited by Guy Smiley on Fri Jan 27, 2023 6:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Dan54
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Ymx wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:20 am New Zealand is generally pretty tight knit, and toes the company line, so not surprising to see all the gushing for Jacinda. Even the papers toe the line, and I think were paid to.

I think as outsiders from democracies some of her messaging was terrifying how she delivered her authoritarian threats. All with a smile, made it seem all the more evil.



*Cue the lefty abuse and venom
Shit I not a lefty, but I certainly not sure what all the evil you talking about. But I only came back from Aus to here a couple of years ago (and yep into MIQ) , so maybe missed it all. I actually haven't met too many outsiders from democracies who were terrified, but could be the circles we mix in? I still don't know whether she did a good or bad job compared to anyone elase etc, as I said I only experinced Aus and here during pandemic and seemed not all that different. Got relatives (by marriage) in Italy and they seemed be pretty tied up , and felt they lost freedoms etc. I not quite sure who has told you the press is paid off in NZ either, seems all a bit extreme to me.
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Guy Smiley
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(SOE declared by deputy mayor, BTW)
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Guy Smiley
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:lol: :lol:

It's got to be bad when you've got Gerry Brownlee attacking your competence.
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Guy Smiley
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😀

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/29-01 ... o-the-rain
Vexed, defensive, shouty, Wayne Brown wore the countenance of a man who had just discovered, to his irritation and mounting horror, that he is, well, the mayor of Auckland.

At Saturday’s press conference in response to the devastating, record-breaking floods in Auckland, Mayor Brown the Second angrily rejected suggestions he had been slow in declaring in a state of emergency as Auckland sank underwater on Friday night, furiously denied that he had been missing in action on the communications front and threw his gobby council colleagues under the waterlogged bus.
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Enzedder
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Good line doing to rounds in Auckland this week... "Wayne, Wayne, Go away".
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Ymx
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Enzedder wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 9:34 pm Good line doing to rounds in Auckland this week... "Wayne, Wayne, Go away".
:lol: :lol:
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Enzedder
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Egg shortage solved

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Auckman
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Haven’t been on here in over two years. Good to see Guy Smiley here! I thought you’d retired from the online life.

By the way, whoever up there who brought up the approval rating, Jacinda the Great was still the most popular PM in preferred PM polls all the way to the end. Luxon is a corporate flop.

Chippy has far more pragmatism though so cautious optimism on the labour side of the fence. NatmobZB activists are starting to sound a few alarms re: the recent Hipkins bounce.
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Enzedder
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Interestinger and interestinger

Looks like the election this year will be a humdinger - if Hipkins can get some more of his base out of bed it's all on

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... atest-poll

And... we could get rid of the ZB breakfast host
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Enzedder
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And it looks like he will have another emergency to deal with by Tuesday

This one is looking hairy - the river here in Hamilton is already full so how the hell it will cope with a day of heavy rain has me buggered

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Cyclone Gabrielle has intensified into a category 3 severe tropical cyclone and has tracked back slightly west, towards Auckland – but the Coromandel will still be hit the worst, forecasters say.

On Friday, Gabrielle is off the coast of Queensland in the Coral Sea and is moving southeast towards Aotearoa.

It is expected to make landfall early on Tuesday on the eastern side of Northland – but bad weather will start from Sunday, according to experts.

The latest Niwa forecast shows Gabrielle is most likely to track down the eastern side of New Zealand.

MetService Forecaster Aidan Pyselman said while the Coromandel was still likely to be hit the hardest, the latest models showed the cyclone was headed slightly further west, sliding closer to Auckland.

The average wind speeds could be around 90kph, with gusts of around 130-140kph, he said, but it was unclear where the strongest wind would be experienced.

Over the past 24 hours each model has had slight changes, Pyselman said, so the cyclone’s path could change even more before it hits New Zealand.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on Friday morning that Gabrielle’s wind speed was 120kph with wind gusts to 165kph.

The bureau made the call to upgrade Gabrielle into a category 3 storm off data received at 5am Australian eastern time, or 8am NZ time.

A category 3 tropical cyclone, with the upgraded “severe” designation, has an average wind speed of between 119kph and 157kph.

It is moving southeast towards NZ at 31kph.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 68,-11.658

Gabrielle is not expected to reach category 4 status.

A heavy rain watch is in place for Northland and Auckland from 1am Sunday, with MetService also implementing heavy rain watches for Coromandel and Gisborne later in the day.

Between 200-400mm of rain could fall in Coromandel in the 53 hours from Sunday morning to Tuesday afternoon.
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Frop.E
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Enzedder wrote: Fri Feb 10, 2023 6:08 pm Interestinger and interestinger

Looks like the election this year will be a humdinger - if Hipkins can get some more of his base out of bed it's all on

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... atest-poll

And... we could get rid of the ZB breakfast host
When's the next election due?
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Enzedder
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14th October
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Enzedder wrote: Fri Feb 10, 2023 6:08 pm Interestinger and interestinger

Looks like the election this year will be a humdinger - if Hipkins can get some more of his base out of bed it's all on

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... atest-poll

And... we could get rid of the ZB breakfast host
The whole time he was on leave you were hanging out for him to come back so don’t pretend you don’t love his show, even if it’s only so you can sit there and get all indignant about everything he says.
Frop.E
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Enzedder wrote: Fri Feb 10, 2023 6:27 pm14th October
:thumbup:
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