Stop voting for fucking Tories

[Biffer]

Back to the tories. And another example of them not knowing what the fuck they are doing.

Under the parliament act, the last date parliament can be dissolved before a general election is 17th December 2024.

So if legislation is to be passed before then, the latest it can got to the Lords is November 17th 2024.

Again according to the Parliament Act, and the timescales laid out in it, to get to the Lords for November 17th 2024, the latest an act could go to the Commons is November 17th 2023.

Or today, in other words.

So Rishi's Rwanda act ain't happening.

[Slick]

The younger voters aren't about to let this go, there is the possibility that Labour turn the whole economy around in the next four or eight years and young people get themselves on the housing ladder, they have careers with bright prospects, net zero is heaving into sight, somehow they are allowed to study, work and live across the EU etc etc, but I'm not holding my breath

I'm sure I read somewhere that they were also haemorrhaging the young voters, I'll see if I can find it.

There are the obvious strong correlation between the SNP and independence but it is also clear that they are not one and the same. Whilst the SNP seem to be feckin up their position of strength from the past few years and Labour's standing is on the increase up here back in its traditional heartlands that doesnt mean the overall figures of those supporting independence is waning very much at all. The commentators down south talk about the two issues as one and the same and this is a mistake. Even though the SNP have gone into self destruction mode post Wee Nic the vast majority of Scots look down south at the complete clusterfuck the Tories are wreaking on the UK's, and by association Scotland, economy, reputation and standing in the world and many would like to distance ourselves from a country who voted for the likes of JRM, Braverman, Johnson, Gillis, Clark and all the other right wing nut jobs. If Farage gets anywhere near joining the Tory Party then I would expect many Scots would try desperately to expedite themselves from a union where he is seen as the answer! Last time he came up here he was run out of town with his tail in-between his legs.

yes, that's very fair actually, and I'm sometimes guilty of conflating the two which is wrong.

Please don't call her Wee Nic though, she is a fucking disgrace.

[C69]

Fuck me that's depressing

[Sandstorm]

Fuck me that's depressing

5 PMs
7 Chancellors
8 Foreign Secretaries
8 Health Secretaries
8 Home Secretaries
10 Education Secretaries
12 Cultural Secretaries


1 Circus Fire

[Paddington Bear]

I'm sure I read somewhere that they were also haemorrhaging the young voters, I'll see if I can find it.

There are the obvious strong correlation between the SNP and independence but it is also clear that they are not one and the same. Whilst the SNP seem to be feckin up their position of strength from the past few years and Labour's standing is on the increase up here back in its traditional heartlands that doesnt mean the overall figures of those supporting independence is waning very much at all. The commentators down south talk about the two issues as one and the same and this is a mistake. Even though the SNP have gone into self destruction mode post Wee Nic the vast majority of Scots look down south at the complete clusterfuck the Tories are wreaking on the UK's, and by association Scotland, economy, reputation and standing in the world and many would like to distance ourselves from a country who voted for the likes of JRM, Braverman, Johnson, Gillis, Clark and all the other right wing nut jobs. If Farage gets anywhere near joining the Tory Party then I would expect many Scots would try desperately to expedite themselves from a union where he is seen as the answer! Last time he came up here he was run out of town with his tail in-between his legs.

Yeah, I get the feeling that is an accurate analysis of where we are, Labour's vote is increasing in polling at around the same level as the SNP's is diminishing across all cohorts, as you say there is a desperation to get the Tories out. There may even be a swell of feeling to get the SNP out of Holyrood after the bin fire of this year, but that doesn't necessarily mean there is less support for Indy.

Right, but the SNP being out of power removes any realistic mechanism to have an independence vote, so polling data doesn’t really matter

[sockwithaticket]

Fuck me that's depressing

5 PMs
7 Chancellors
8 Foreign Secretaries
8 Health Secretaries
8 Home Secretaries
10 Education Secretaries
12 Cultural Secretaries


1 Circus Fire

But May told us it would be chaos under Labour!

[sockwithaticket]

Back to the tories. And another example of them not knowing what the fuck they are doing.

Under the parliament act, the last date parliament can be dissolved before a general election is 17th December 2024.

So if legislation is to be passed before then, the latest it can got to the Lords is November 17th 2024.

Again according to the Parliament Act, and the timescales laid out in it, to get to the Lords for November 17th 2024, the latest an act could go to the Commons is November 17th 2023.

Or today, in other words.

So Rishi's Rwanda act ain't happening.

I'm sure someone somewhere in the party has enough constitutional knowledge to realise this, but the Tories will forge ahead anyway because those making the decisions are still deeply unaccustomed to and actually aggrivede by being told no. Then when it doesn't work they'll fall back on blaming lefty lawyers and the civil service, perhaps even the moon being in retrograde, because that always plays well with the base regardless of whether there's any truth to what's being aid.

[Biffer]

Back to the tories. And another example of them not knowing what the fuck they are doing.

Under the parliament act, the last date parliament can be dissolved before a general election is 17th December 2024.

So if legislation is to be passed before then, the latest it can got to the Lords is November 17th 2024.

Again according to the Parliament Act, and the timescales laid out in it, to get to the Lords for November 17th 2024, the latest an act could go to the Commons is November 17th 2023.

Or today, in other words.

So Rishi's Rwanda act ain't happening.

I'm sure someone somewhere in the party has enough constitutional knowledge to realise this, but the Tories will forge ahead anyway because those making the decisions are still deeply unaccustomed to and actually aggrivede by being told no. Then when it doesn't work they'll fall back on blaming lefty lawyers and the civil service, perhaps even the moon being in retrograde, because that always plays well with the base regardless of whether there's any truth to what's being aid.

I think it'd require the Lords to accept a shortened timescale and let's face it, they won't.

Cue the Lords, and all the tories in there, being part of the left leaning Liberal elite.

[Calculon]

Something quite astonishing at how worked up parts of British political debate have got about a foreign war we will not intervene in and have no influence over

It's all about nailing one's colours to the mast now - for instance I've noticed a Venn diagram overlap of anti-vaxxers anti-lockdown Covid denier types with those who are most vocal in support of Israel's continued bombing in Gazza

Christian Evangelical wingnuts, innit !

the single most bizarre political group, & their relationship with Israel is the weirdest part, because they want Israel to exist, because they believe that it forms an important part of the whole "End of Days" shit, when the Jews will either convert, or get burned up with the rest of us unbelievers.

They're ISIS without the violence so far; but I don't rule out the violence coming in my lifetime.

Young, under 35 evangelicals are actually less supportive of Isreali than non evangelicals. There's a big divide based on age, more so than with non evangelicals. Also easy to overstate vaccine hesitancy amongst evangelicals. Yes greater than non evangelicals but iirc something like 54 percent indicated they took or will take a vaccine, as opposed to 77percent non evangelicals.

The loudest anti vaxers have been MAGA, who are also very much divided on support for Isreali. While the likes of MTG are firm supporters, many are not. They dislike Muslims, but they also really don't like the Jews. Something of course they have in common with many of those on the left and Muslims. Support for Isreali anyway crosses the political spectrum in the States, with a progressive democrat like Fetterman equality as supportive as a conservative repub desantis. Again the division is more age based, with admittedly more younger people being Democrats.

Also I've known many Evangelicals, friends and family. While some of their beliefs are obviously batshit insane, comparing them to ISIS is ridiculous

[Tichtheid]

There are the obvious strong correlation between the SNP and independence but it is also clear that they are not one and the same. Whilst the SNP seem to be feckin up their position of strength from the past few years and Labour's standing is on the increase up here back in its traditional heartlands that doesnt mean the overall figures of those supporting independence is waning very much at all. The commentators down south talk about the two issues as one and the same and this is a mistake. Even though the SNP have gone into self destruction mode post Wee Nic the vast majority of Scots look down south at the complete clusterfuck the Tories are wreaking on the UK's, and by association Scotland, economy, reputation and standing in the world and many would like to distance ourselves from a country who voted for the likes of JRM, Braverman, Johnson, Gillis, Clark and all the other right wing nut jobs. If Farage gets anywhere near joining the Tory Party then I would expect many Scots would try desperately to expedite themselves from a union where he is seen as the answer! Last time he came up here he was run out of town with his tail in-between his legs.

Yeah, I get the feeling that is an accurate analysis of where we are, Labour's vote is increasing in polling at around the same level as the SNP's is diminishing across all cohorts, as you say there is a desperation to get the Tories out. There may even be a swell of feeling to get the SNP out of Holyrood after the bin fire of this year, but that doesn't necessarily mean there is less support for Indy.

Right, but the SNP being out of power removes any realistic mechanism to have an independence vote, so polling data doesn’t really matter

The SNP is still leading in the polls in both constituency and regional votes, albeit by smaller margins. The Green vote could well prove significant again.

[Paddington Bear]

Yeah, I get the feeling that is an accurate analysis of where we are, Labour's vote is increasing in polling at around the same level as the SNP's is diminishing across all cohorts, as you say there is a desperation to get the Tories out. There may even be a swell of feeling to get the SNP out of Holyrood after the bin fire of this year, but that doesn't necessarily mean there is less support for Indy.

Right, but the SNP being out of power removes any realistic mechanism to have an independence vote, so polling data doesn’t really matter

The SNP is still leading in the polls in both constituency and regional votes, albeit by smaller margins. The Green vote could well prove significant again.

There’s been a lot of ground covered on this, but I started with *if* the SNP get booted out, they’d likely never have a better decade to achieve independence and the recriminations would be fascinating. Still all hypothetical

[SaintK]

No conflicts of interest here at all!
As mentioned up thread earlier, his wife is a senior executive of Anglian Water and..................

Barclay accepted £3,000 from Michael Hintze on 20 October, and is being asked by campaigners to reveal whether he has been lobbied on climate issues by those who seek to deny the extent of climate breakdown.
Lord Hintze has been one of the key funders of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, a UK-based thinktank that has denied the legitimacy of climate science, and he was one of its earliest backers.

[Slick]

Right, but the SNP being out of power removes any realistic mechanism to have an independence vote, so polling data doesn’t really matter

The SNP is still leading in the polls in both constituency and regional votes, albeit by smaller margins. The Green vote could well prove significant again.

There’s been a lot of ground covered on this, but I started with *if* the SNP get booted out, they’d likely never have a better decade to achieve independence and the recriminations would be fascinating. Still all hypothetical

I agree. I kind of accept Biffers point of support getting larger and larger, but the last decade has been an absolute golden period and very, very little has changed in terms of the numbers

[Hal Jordan]

His record on environmental votes would indicate he's not really keen on green crap.

[Biffer]

The SNP is still leading in the polls in both constituency and regional votes, albeit by smaller margins. The Green vote could well prove significant again.

There’s been a lot of ground covered on this, but I started with *if* the SNP get booted out, they’d likely never have a better decade to achieve independence and the recriminations would be fascinating. Still all hypothetical

I agree. I kind of accept Biffers point of support getting larger and larger, but the last decade has been an absolute golden period and very, very little has changed in terms of the numbers

But that's not true.

Go back ten years, and look at the polling before the indy referendum. 28%, 36% & 34% in favour in the three polls in November 2013.

[Slick]

There’s been a lot of ground covered on this, but I started with *if* the SNP get booted out, they’d likely never have a better decade to achieve independence and the recriminations would be fascinating. Still all hypothetical

I agree. I kind of accept Biffers point of support getting larger and larger, but the last decade has been an absolute golden period and very, very little has changed in terms of the numbers

But that's not true.

Go back ten years, and look at the polling before the indy referendum. 28%, 36% & 34% in favour in the three polls in November 2013.

OK… but what about since the Indy ref? It has been pretty much the same for years and all the way through Brexit, Boris, Covid etc etc

[tabascoboy]

Somebody please tell me this is a photoshop...

[fishfoodie]

Somebody please tell me this is a photoshop...

Always punching down !

If you turn down that job offer to be a school bus driver, we'll cut off your free prescriptions for your Narcolepsy.

Take that job in childcare, or we'll cut off your anti-psychotic medication

[C69]

Somebody please tell me this is a photoshop...

Yeah I thought her tits were bigger

[Hal Jordan]

Somebody please tell me this is a photoshop...

Whilst dangling an IHT cut as a vote grabber for people who think they will be robbed on their death by the most hated tax.

[C69]

Cutting IHT is so fucking lame.

[Tichtheid]

I acted as an advocate for someone who'd been refused incapacity benefit. It was Atos at the time who were dealing with it. They wrote to my friend's doctor to tell him to stop signing my friend off sick. This doctor had been my friend's GP for about 25 years. They were saying the results from their tick box exercise, carried out by their "medical practitioner" (not a doctor) was more valid than a real doctor who had that experience of the person in question.

I spent six years fighting that case, he was getting bailiffs sent round at one point, this was a frail sick man in his very late 50s who had worked all his life, paid all his dues and never missed a day of work, they really sent the dogs after him.

Long story short, we won the tribunal hearing, my mate was signed off legitimately after a six year fight, which he was not capable of doing on his own, he would have died under a hedgerow after a couple of weeks of it. As it panned out he died after a few months of them stopping the barrage of abuse.

[Biffer]

I agree. I kind of accept Biffers point of support getting larger and larger, but the last decade has been an absolute golden period and very, very little has changed in terms of the numbers

But that's not true.

Go back ten years, and look at the polling before the indy referendum. 28%, 36% & 34% in favour in the three polls in November 2013.

OK… but what about since the Indy ref? It has been pretty much the same for years and all the way through Brexit, Boris, Covid etc etc

In the four years before the indyref, there were four polls that showed a lead for independence. None were over 50%.

In the six years after the referendum there were thirteen. One was over 50%.

Since 2020 there have been fifty one. Sixteen were 50% or over.

That suggests a slow movement over time to independence, when you smooth things over a longer time period to get rid of the effect of transient events.

Would you like to keep picking different time periods until you find one that agrees with you, and then rely on that and ignore all the others?

This is entirely the point I was making, unionists say over and over again some variation of ‘but support for independence is stable, not increasing’ and it’s just wrong, it’s a deliberate blindness to what’s happening designed for newspapers to push and say that the independence movement has peaked. All the evidence says otherwise.

[Paddington Bear]

Cutting IHT is so fucking lame.

Smart politics though. The beneficiaries of massive house price rises are beginning to die. The amount of people I know who’ve worked bog standard 9-5s but by dint of having bought a house in South Bucks at the right time will leave an estate of over £1m is enormous

[SaintK]

Cutting IHT is so fucking lame.

Smart politics though. The beneficiaries of massive house price rises are beginning to die. The amount of people I know who’ve worked bog standard 9-5s but by dint of having bought a house in South Bucks at the right time will leave an estate of over £1m is enormous

It may well satisfy Telegraph and Mail readers but it will need more than a bribe like this for the Tories to save their skin at the next election.

[Paddington Bear]

Cutting IHT is so fucking lame.

Smart politics though. The beneficiaries of massive house price rises are beginning to die. The amount of people I know who’ve worked bog standard 9-5s but by dint of having bought a house in South Bucks at the right time will leave an estate of over £1m is enormous

It may well satisfy Telegraph and Mail readers but it will need more than a bribe like this for the Tories to save their skin at the next election.

I doubt it’ll win an election, or indeed if there’s anything that’s saving them now.

It’s popular across the political spectrum. A huge swathe of people across particularly the south would stand to benefit over the next 20 years, hugely.
And anecdotally as a millennial of a certain age from a certain part of the world, even the very left among the people I know turn Pinochet eat your heart out small statist when confronted with a big property related cheque. My sister, for example

[C69]

Smart politics though. The beneficiaries of massive house price rises are beginning to die. The amount of people I know who’ve worked bog standard 9-5s but by dint of having bought a house in South Bucks at the right time will leave an estate of over £1m is enormous

It may well satisfy Telegraph and Mail readers but it will need more than a bribe like this for the Tories to save their skin at the next election.

I doubt it’ll win an election, or indeed if there’s anything that’s saving them now.

It’s popular across the political spectrum. A huge swathe of people across particularly the south would stand to benefit over the next 20 years, hugely.
And anecdotally as a millennial of a certain age from a certain part of the world, even the very left among the people I know turn Pinochet eat your heart out small statist when confronted with a big property related cheque. My sister, for example

So how many people does this affect?

What a pile of shit. So fucking out of touch

[Paddington Bear]

It may well satisfy Telegraph and Mail readers but it will need more than a bribe like this for the Tories to save their skin at the next election.

I doubt it’ll win an election, or indeed if there’s anything that’s saving them now.

It’s popular across the political spectrum. A huge swathe of people across particularly the south would stand to benefit over the next 20 years, hugely.
And anecdotally as a millennial of a certain age from a certain part of the world, even the very left among the people I know turn Pinochet eat your heart out small statist when confronted with a big property related cheque. My sister, for example

So how many people does this affect?

What a pile of shit. So fucking out of touch

Property price rises in southern England? An enormous number

[Simian]

But that's not true.

Go back ten years, and look at the polling before the indy referendum. 28%, 36% & 34% in favour in the three polls in November 2013.

OK… but what about since the Indy ref? It has been pretty much the same for years and all the way through Brexit, Boris, Covid etc etc

In the four years before the indyref, there were four polls that showed a lead for independence. None were over 50%.

In the six years after the referendum there were thirteen. One was over 50%.

Since 2020 there have been fifty one. Sixteen were 50% or over.

That suggests a slow movement over time to independence, when you smooth things over a longer time period to get rid of the effect of transient events.

Would you like to keep picking different time periods until you find one that agrees with you, and then rely on that and ignore all the others?

This is entirely the point I was making, unionists say over and over again some variation of ‘but support for independence is stable, not increasing’ and it’s just wrong, it’s a deliberate blindness to what’s happening designed for newspapers to push and say that the independence movement has peaked. All the evidence says otherwise.

Agree with all this (as well as your earlier point about a shift in how undecideds are handled in media reports of poll results).

I never quite follow the ‘Brexit, Covid, Boris should have caused a big upswing in Indy support’ argument, tbh.

As far as I can tell, a big issue for a lot of folk who are undecided or ‘like’ the idea of an independent Scotland is that they’re (understandably?) concerned about the uncertainties that would go with that. So things like Brexit and the economic and social fall out from Covid that exacerbate those uncertainties probably trouble a lot of people (when there’s upheaval some folk won’t want more upheaval, basically). And that’s before you take into account the extent to which Covid might have masked to some extent the fall out from Brexit etc.

On Boris… just another crap Tory leader. In fact, that he was particularly crap to the point that even many Tory supporters were turned off, potentially didn’t help the independent movement (he arguably manoeuvred the tory party into a position where they were nailed on to lose the next election).

Dunno. The argument (and this ain’t a pop at you, Slick. I see it all over the place) that recent events were a perfect storm to boost Indy support seems a wee bit bit simplistic to me. I can see an equally compelling argument that the steady growth of Indy support that biffer points to happening despite all that being kinda remarkable. (If you’re worried about uncertainty, why support something that brings more uncertainty. If you’re worried about continuing to be under Tory rule, you won’t be for much longer. Etc).

The annoying thing for me personally is the number of people I know for whom the uncertainty around Eu membership was THE deciding factor in voting ‘No’ when it seemed kinda clear to me they we’re misreading the direction of UK travel (aka the volume of folk down south who were otherwise sensible but genuinely believed that Eu membership was a problem).

All of my views on this (including Scottish independence in General) would actually be kind of different in labour had had a coherent stance / voice on EU membership and I think it’s really interesting how many folk up here seem to have forgotten (or are overlooking) the fact that the No campaign around the Indy kinda were rescued (or shored up) by Labour’s efforts and that that led directly to us (Scotland) definitely being out the EU with no obvious way back (instead of being in a position where there maybe was a way back, albeit a potentially complicated one).

[Simian]

My personal politics are much more closely aligned with Labour than SNP. But I struggle to get past Labour failing to launch a credible and coherent challenge to Brexit. And it’s interesting to me to see so many Scottish posters on here getting upset by the corruption in (and bad judgment shown by) the SNP in recent years. I’ve no idea how old these posters are (and I agree it’s been horrible to see and they’re justifiably angered by it. I am too). But it’s nothing compared to the levels of corruption we saw in Glasgow under labour councils.

[Simian]

Many of those reports are based on very old met.

In the meantime, there has been significant recent developments in regards to different (two tier) policing based on cohort, and which clearly does need to be properly investigated. I hope they do.

But not all, whereas all you have is an anonymous statement.

Well, that and what we have all just witnessed. But fair, and I will read that Casey report as it flies in the face of current intuition. Then again, it might have been the final catalyst for the swing.

You said you were going to read the Casey report because you’d kept saying that reports on the behaviour of the Met were based on decades old data etc and it wasn’t indicative of their new ‘woke’ collective views. (As you put it the co conclusions of the report that it was racist, homophonbic+, and misogynistic ‘flies in the face of current intuitions’).

Did you? And what did you think if you did?

I take (what I think was your point - you don’t say it, but I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume it’s what you meant) that they were ‘of their time’ (decades ago the world was different, behaviours now not acceptable might have been acceptable to more then etc).

I’m genuinely interested if you read the report whether you still think the Met are ‘woke’ and the hotbed of leftist/progressive social views you claimed they are?

[C69]

I doubt it’ll win an election, or indeed if there’s anything that’s saving them now.

It’s popular across the political spectrum. A huge swathe of people across particularly the south would stand to benefit over the next 20 years, hugely.
And anecdotally as a millennial of a certain age from a certain part of the world, even the very left among the people I know turn Pinochet eat your heart out small statist when confronted with a big property related cheque. My sister, for example

So how many people does this affect?

What a pile of shit. So fucking out of touch

Property price rises in southern England? An enormous number

Really, for instance how many people in England did it effect last year?
Its a myth

[Ymx]

I did read it. Well, the first part of it.

It’s conclusion was there was in built bias. There was constant reference to the white male make-up of the force.

The summary to fix the met was based on improving public trust. It suggested to be focused on not over-policing certain segments and get a good trustpilot review from them. Peelian principles.

I do not agree with the strategy. I don’t think any concern about policing any segment should be in a police officers mind. If 70% of one crime is committed by a certain demographic, I’d expect 70% of preventative policing to be registered on that demographic. Not more not less and certainly not in tune with % of the overall population.

So it would appear they’ve taken it on board and probably why we are seeing so much soft policing on what they perceive as minorities.

There are numerous examples of this pandering behaviour. Especially in regards to the protests, where they are actively showing a political bias.

That’s my opinion

[Ymx]

Here are the badly thought out measures of success



If they actually policed the Hamas supporting protesters, and they are using the above as measure of success, they’d fail.

Fortunately, for them they had Tommy Robinson’s mates to pick up to help maintain the targeted 75% arrest level.

Bet that was a relief.

[Paddington Bear]

So how many people does this affect?

What a pile of shit. So fucking out of touch

Property price rises in southern England? An enormous number

Really, for instance how many people in England did it effect last year?
Its a myth

I’ve been referencing a 20 year+ period. We’re at the beginning of the largest inter-generational transfer of wealth this country has ever seen
Look at the average house price in London, for example, then look at the IHT exempt thresholds. You don’t need to have a mansion in the suburbs to have a large exposure to this.

[C69]

Property price rises in southern England? An enormous number

Really, for instance how many people in England did it effect last year?
Its a myth

I’ve been referencing a 20 year+ period. We’re at the beginning of the largest inter-generational transfer of wealth this country has ever seen
Look at the average house price in London, for example, then look at the IHT exempt thresholds. You don’t need to have a mansion in the suburbs to have a large exposure to this.

Latest figures show that fewer than one in 20 estates pay inheritance tax. Specifically, nearly 4% of deaths result in the payment of inheritance tax, which is about 27,000 estates a year.

[Paddington Bear]

Really, for instance how many people in England did it effect last year?
Its a myth

I’ve been referencing a 20 year+ period. We’re at the beginning of the largest inter-generational transfer of wealth this country has ever seen
Look at the average house price in London, for example, then look at the IHT exempt thresholds. You don’t need to have a mansion in the suburbs to have a large exposure to this.

Latest figures show that fewer than one in 20 estates pay inheritance tax. Specifically, nearly 4% of deaths result in the payment of inheritance tax, which is about 27,000 estates a year.

Yes and that number will go up as boomers who have benefited from a massive surge in house prices die off, which is why IHT related politics is smart, which is what started this discussion.

Fwiw these figures are always going to be low, to start with a massive chunk of estates will pass to the surviving spouse. Others of course with the resources/smarts/trustworthy kids get around it with clever planning.

One example - there’s a four bed house on the end of my road. They just accepted an offer for £1.25m, their parents bought it for less than £200k back in the day. People can put two and two together and work out they might end up with a tax bill

[C69]

I’ve been referencing a 20 year+ period. We’re at the beginning of the largest inter-generational transfer of wealth this country has ever seen
Look at the average house price in London, for example, then look at the IHT exempt thresholds. You don’t need to have a mansion in the suburbs to have a large exposure to this.

Latest figures show that fewer than one in 20 estates pay inheritance tax. Specifically, nearly 4% of deaths result in the payment of inheritance tax, which is about 27,000 estates a year.

Yes and that number will go up as boomers who have benefited from a massive surge in house prices die off, which is why IHT related politics is smart, which is what started this discussion.

Fwiw these figures are always going to be low, to start with a massive chunk of estates will pass to the surviving spouse. Others of course with the resources/smarts/trustworthy kids get around it with clever planning.

One example - there’s a four bed house on the end of my road. They just accepted an offer for £1.25m, their parents bought it for less than £200k back in the day. People can put two and two together and work out they might end up with a tax bill

I would contend that this will have fuck all influence at the next election.
Not a jot. At present the numbers are so small it's an irrelevance.
Catchy but not even newsworthy yet

[petej]

Really, for instance how many people in England did it effect last year?
Its a myth

I’ve been referencing a 20 year+ period. We’re at the beginning of the largest inter-generational transfer of wealth this country has ever seen
Look at the average house price in London, for example, then look at the IHT exempt thresholds. You don’t need to have a mansion in the suburbs to have a large exposure to this.

Latest figures show that fewer than one in 20 estates pay inheritance tax. Specifically, nearly 4% of deaths result in the payment of inheritance tax, which is about 27,000 estates a year.

Figures don't matter because most people don't know the thresholds and our "newspapers" aren't about to inform them they just want to keep people fearful. I doubt most of the population understand progressive taxation and could if given a simple example could calculate it.

[Simian]

I did read it. Well, the first part of it.

It’s conclusion was there was in built bias. There was constant reference to the white male make-up of the force.

The summary to fix the met was based on improving public trust. It suggested to be focused on not over-policing certain segments and get a good trustpilot review from them. Peelian principles.

I do not agree with the strategy. I don’t think any concern about policing any segment should be in a police officers mind. If 70% of one crime is committed by a certain demographic, I’d expect 70% of preventative policing to be registered on that demographic. Not more not less and certainly not in tune with % of the overall population.

So it would appear they’ve taken it on board and probably why we are seeing so much soft policing on what they perceive as minorities.

There are numerous examples of this pandering behaviour. Especially in regards to the protests, where they are actively showing a political bias.

That’s my opinion

so.... you don't think you think the 'baseline' (ground truth) of the prevalence of a crime is what the Met figures show? Even when (to pick an example from the last wee while) they were found guilty of making stuff about black athletes using drugs because they were, well, black? And you don't think that's a problem? and genuinely don't see the problem with it?

So even when there is an independent report saying that systemic biases in policing lead to a distortion in baseline figures for crime rates across demographic groups (and even though, as the report points out) a disproportionate of these 'cases' turn put to be actionable, you still think that's an appropriate baseline and still stand by your claim the Met are biased by their woke and left-leaning stance?

Can you answer these questions? I just want to be clear what you actually think to avoid any misunderstandings?

Can you also clarify what the distinction is between what the report found (based on actual data) and what you mean by 'my opinion' (I think you referred to it previously as your intuition)? An explanation of why the data and your opinion /intuitions are so very different would be helpful too.