What's going on in Ukraine?

[Niegs]

[PornDog]

Fuck me but that's depressing!

[TB63]

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[Plim]

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That’s grim as fuck.

Worthwhile reminder of the reality of conflict, I suppose. But still a horror show. Poor bastards.

[Hellraiser]

If anyone is interested in an update on Igor "Yankee" Yankov aka Warstache, the Belarusian volunteer who became quite famous in the early days of the invasion, he's currently SOF in Special Purpose Unit "Timur" of HUR.

[Plim]

If anyone is interested in an update on Igor "Yankee" Yankov aka Warstache, the Belarusian volunteer who became quite famous in the early days of the invasion, he's currently SOF in Special Purpose Unit "Timur" of HUR.

Thank you for that. I was wondering about what might have happened to him. Modern legend.

[Random1]

https://www.forces.net/technology/land- ... ine-losses

Looks like the yank tanks are struggling.

[Hellraiser]

https://www.forces.net/technology/land- ... ine-losses

Looks like the yank tanks are struggling.

There's a bit of disinformation going on here, which the Ukrainians have had to deny. They haven't been withdrawn from combat, they're just being used differently. Supply of 120mm ammo is a limiting factor too.

No tank, Western or Soviet/Russian, is drone proof.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

OSINT researcher Jompy has updated his assessments of the current situation regarding the remains of infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers at Russia's largest storage bases. In total, as he points out, the Russians have seven such bases, and all of them are significantly empty:

- Arsenal 3018/6018: significantly emptied, half of the remaining equipment was moved to the sump, where it is gradually taken away for spare parts. Almost all MT-LBs have disappeared. According to the researcher, of the 969 infantry fighting vehicles located there, 502 currently remain, of which 273 show signs of complete disrepair.

- Arsenal 22: on its last legs. Previously, a lot of relatively new equipment was stored at this base. At the moment, only 90 BTR-80s remain there (out of 429 pre-war), of which 38 are completely rusted. Infantry fighting vehicles, mainly BMP-1, also remain at the base. There are 409 of them left out of 727 pre-war ones, at least 155 of the remaining ones are beyond repair.

- Arsenal 769/227 in Buryatia: the rate of cannibalization of armored vehicles has increased significantly. Mostly BMP-1 remain, their number has dropped to 552 from 918 pre-war, some remaining are also beyond repair.

- Arsenal 111 near Khabarovsk: a huge settling tank for equipment of little use for repair. During the war, only 59 infantry fighting vehicles were removed from there; it is doubtful that any significant number of others will be removed.

- Arsenal 1295: almost completely empty, and for quite some time. 156 BMP-1 BMP-1s remain at the base, of which 69 are clearly broken.

- Arsenal 2544: was the main storage place for airborne combat vehicles (the number of which the Russians generally had dropped to a strategically insignificant number). 285 of 343 pre-war infantry fighting vehicles and 250 of 306 pre-war BTR-70 armored personnel carriers remain at the base.

- Arsenal 1311: almost all that was stored there were tanks.

In total, according to Jompy, of the 4,191 infantry fighting vehicles located at their main storage bases, 2,793 currently remain there. Of the remaining infantry fighting vehicles, 1,814 appear to be beyond repair. Almost all remaining BMPs are BMP-1s, and BMP-2s are becoming an endangered vehicle as the Ukrainians knock them out. The rate of cannibalization is increasing, although it requires a separate study. The number of remaining armored personnel carriers is 451 units.

Cannibalized equipment is not useless, as it allows you to support the armored vehicles that are in service. However, Jompy's assessment remains the same: in a year and a half, the Russians will exhaust all reserves of armored infantry vehicles, and the only source of replenishment will be the production of new ones, which does not exceed several hundred units per year.

* Jompy relies on satellite images purchased by the teams Viyskovy Vishchun, Mortis Aeterna and Resurgam. The names of the storage databases are given as in Jompy.

@yigal_levin

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-buys ... 20k-2024-4

[Hellraiser]

Britain estimates that 450,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded and over 10,000 Russian armoured vehicles have been destroyed in Ukraine.

John Healey MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Defence, asked the following:

“To ask the Secretary of State for Defence, whether his Department has made an assessment of the number of personnel serving in the Russian armed forces in Ukraine who have (a) been killed in action, (b) been wounded and (c) deserted their posts since February 2022.”

“To ask the Secretary of State for Defence, whether his Department has made an estimate of the number of mercenaries serving in Russian private military companies who have (a) been killed in action, (b) been wounded and (c) deserted their post since February 2022.”

“To ask the Secretary of State for Defence, whether he has made an estimate of the number of Russian (a) main battle tanks, (b) armoured fighting vehicles, (c) fixed-wing aircrafts, (d) helicopters, (e) unmanned aerial vehicles, (f) ships, (g) artillery systems, (h) multiple-launch rocket systems and (i) other capabilities destroyed in Ukraine since 24 February 2022.”

Leo Docherty Minister of State, Minister for the Armed Forces, responded:

“We estimate that approximately 450,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded, and tens of thousands more have already deserted since the start of the conflict. The number of personnel killed serving in Russian private military companies (PMCs) is not clear.

We also estimate that over 10,000 Russian armoured vehicles, including nearly 3,000 main battle tanks, 109 fixed wing aircraft, 136 helicopters, 346 unmanned aerial vehicles, 23 naval vessels of all classes, and over 1,500 artillery systems of all types have been destroyed, abandoned, or captured by Ukraine since the start of the conflict.”

[Hellraiser]

A new twist in the case of corruption in the Russian Ministry of Defense. During searches of Timur Ivanov and his accomplices, operatives uncovered gross violations of the requirements for maintaining state secrets and the secrecy regime, which the leadership of the FSB DVKR is afraid to report to the director of the service and the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. As it turned out, for the convenience of maintaining internal accounting and monitoring the most “tasty” government contracts distributed among “anchor contractors” (like A. Fomin), Timur Ivanov and Ruslan Tsalikov for more than 5 years allowed civil servants and their partners access to secret information -entrepreneurs who did not formally have access to restricted data, but had codes and information from more than 200 secret facilities directly related to the “Russian nuclear shield”, 12 Main Directorates of the Moscow Region, Strategic Missile Forces, etc.

A source from Gulagu.net reported that the first deputy director of the FSB, Sergei Korolev, after a conversation with one of the billionaires who has a joint business with the family of Ruslan Tsalikov, instructed the head of one of the departments of the DVKR not to formalize what was discovered and not to transfer what was discovered to investigators of the Main Investigative Directorate of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, citing… state secret. In fact, one of the heads of the service is trying to hide with state secrets the largest disclosure in the entire history of the FSB and Russia of those very state secrets and strategic secrets of the RF Armed Forces. In addition, Korolev and DVKR do not and cannot have an excuse for the fact that the holder of state secrets (T.V. Ivanov) freely traveled more than 10 times to NATO countries, not to mention his business partners.

A source from Gulagu.net reported that, contrary to the conspiracy between Tsalikov and Korolev, another service (FSO) will report this to Vladimir Putin on Monday and by the end of the week, personnel and procedural decisions that are unexpected for many will be made.

The attached files from the document “Input Schedules for Commissions” (contained on the hard drives of counterparties of the RF Ministry of Defense) are a clear confirmation of what was said above. To be continued

[Hellraiser]

Germany handed over another package of military aid to Ukraine, which included:

1 Skynex air defense system;
10 Marder 1A3 BMP;
1 BIBER bridge paver;
6 M1070 tank tractors;
1 Pionierpanzer 2A1 engineering vehicle;
9 mine trawls;
3000 RGW90 MATADOR grenade launchers;
1 TRML-4D radar;
IRIS-T air defense missiles;
29,638 35-mm cartridges for the Gepard Armed Forces;
Ammunition for Leopard 2;
18,000 40-mm shells for grenade launchers;
120-mm mines;
7500 155-mm shells;
1 AMPS protection system for helicopters;
60 boat motors;
600 lanterns;
1980 camouflage nets;
2000 military ponchos;
100,000 first-aid kits.

https://t.me/operativnoZSU

[TheNatalShark]

I jump out today for a few months to earn some £££. As the situation in the east deteriorates, I'm finding myself worrying for the first time might not see some people again.

Looking forward to those outside of curfew pints (even if it will cost an arm and a leg) and sleeps without fucking 1am air alarm blaring right outside.

[Glaston]

The EU list of shame.
Cyprus
France
Greece
Hungary
Malta
Slovakia

[yermum]

Why France?

[Stranger]

Why France?

I was wondering that

[MungoMan]

Why France?

I was wondering that

Because the French smell faintly of poo? Or is it the Finns?

Some mob beginning with F in any case.

[Hellraiser]

OSINT researcher Jompy has summarized the results of his study of satellite images of Russian storage bases and the number of armored combat vehicles on them. Considering that the images of Viyskovy Vishchun, Mortis Aeterna and Resurgam are 2-4 months old at the moment, Jompy tried to extrapolate estimates for the beginning of May, taking into account the pace of recovery:

- MT-LBu - chassis for installing other weapons on them. They practically do not reactivate, except to create rare modifications of weapons, such as improvised self-propelled guns. At the storage bases there should be 800 visually intact and 100 clearly broken.

- BRDM-2 - Jompy was initially mistaken regarding their reactivation. The Russians began to use these armored vehicles in the rear. The number of those remaining at the bases approximately corresponds to the number of MT-LBs: 800 visually intact and 100 broken.

- MT-LB (suitable for use as an armored personnel carrier) - almost finished. There should be 300 visually intact and 100 clearly broken bases. There are probably 1-2 thousand MT-LBs remaining in the troops; they will gradually break down under Ukrainian attacks.

- BMD - there are practically none left. The Russians are trying to convert 1B119 vehicles on the BMD chassis into armored personnel carriers, and also produce several hundred BTR-MDM and BMD-4 a year, but this quantity does not cover their losses.

- BTR: BTR-80s are almost gone. 1B18 vehicles based on the BTR-60 are occasionally used in the rear. The remaining stock of BTR-70s is quite significant, about 1,500 units. They have already begun to register on the front lines. Apparently, the rate of their removal from storage will increase significantly. It is not yet clear how many of them the Russians will upgrade to the BTR-70M level. The BTR-82 is still in production.

- BMP - there are practically no BMP-2 or BMP-3 left at the storage bases. On the other hand, the Russians produce BMP-3, and those BMP-2 that still remain with the Russian Guard and the rear are transferred to the front line. The rate of cannibalization of the BMP-1s still remaining at the bases has increased significantly. The total number of infantry fighting vehicles remaining at the bases is 1,900 visually intact and 2,100 clearly broken.

@yigal_levin

[Hellraiser]

OSINT researcher HighMarsed calculated the number of Russian D-30 howitzers at storage bases using the latest available satellite images. Before the full-scale war, only 170 guns of this type were in active service, and another 3,191 were kept in storage bases. At the moment, at least 2,012 of them have been reactivated, and 1,179 remain. At the same time, some of the howitzers could go to training centers, and not to the front , and others - to be used as donor barrels for other guns.

At the same time, HighMarsed notes that the available images are quite old, often more than six months, so in reality there could be fewer than 500 D-30s left. However, another researcher, Morten Bjorn, created a mathematical graph that shows that if the rate of artillery de-mothballing continues The D-30 should have already ended.

@yigal_levin

[Marylandolorian]

Why France?

I was wondering that

Because king Macron said he’s thinking about sending troops to Ukraine?

[sockwithaticket]

Why France?

I was wondering that

Because king Macron said he’s thinking about sending troops to Ukraine?

I was assuming, particularly with the context of the other names on the list, that it's because France haven't actually given all that much to assist Ukraine thus far and Macron's recent tough guy language about boots on the ground thus seems a bit empty or over-compensatory.

[Marylandolorian]

I was wondering that

Because king Macron said he’s thinking about sending troops to Ukraine?

I was assuming, particularly with the context of the other names on the list, that it's because France haven't actually given all that much to assist Ukraine thus far and Macron's recent tough guy language about boots on the ground thus seems a bit empty or over-compensatory.

I was assuming that the poster put France on the list because he’s a well known asshole who was alway bashing France on PR.
No idea if they haven’t given as much as promised but I know that they have sent a bunch of arms, training Ukrainian soldiers, tacking a bunch of refugees and continue to do so.
As for the prez, I can’t stand this sob.

[Hellraiser]

I was wondering that

Because king Macron said he’s thinking about sending troops to Ukraine?

I was assuming, particularly with the context of the other names on the list, that it's because France haven't actually given all that much to assist Ukraine thus far and Macron's recent tough guy language about boots on the ground thus seems a bit empty or over-compensatory.

France gets bashed a bit without context. The French army radically restructured after the end of the Cold War, away from a conventional land war force and towards a highly mobile expeditionary force. They shed a huge amount of legacy heavy metal in the process. The net result is they didn't, and still don't to a degree, have much to spare for Ukraine. It's not generally realised that the 30 or so CAESAR 155mm SPHs that France initially gave Ukraine in 2022-23 amounted to over 25% of their entire self-propelled artillery force.

Additionally, France has given a significant part of their SCALP-EG missile stocks to Ukraine, and has given over 250 VABs so far with several hundred more to come.

Also France is giving a lot of smaller less expensive kit under the table which they don't publicise.

[Flockwitt]

Along with direct training so their gear is getting to the battlefield in a timely fashion.

[yermum]

Because king Macron said he’s thinking about sending troops to Ukraine?

I was assuming, particularly with the context of the other names on the list, that it's because France haven't actually given all that much to assist Ukraine thus far and Macron's recent tough guy language about boots on the ground thus seems a bit empty or over-compensatory.

France gets bashed a bit without context. The French army radically restructured after the end of the Cold War, away from a conventional land war force and towards a highly mobile expeditionary force. They shed a huge amount of legacy heavy metal in the process. The net result is they didn't, and still don't to a degree, have much to spare for Ukraine. It's not generally realised that the 30 or so CAESAR 155mm SPHs that France initially gave Ukraine in 2022-23 amounted to over 25% of their entire self-propelled artillery force.

Additionally, France has given a significant part of their SCALP-EG missile stocks to Ukraine, and has given over 250 VABs so far with several hundred more to come.

Also France is giving a lot of smaller less expensive kit under the table which they don't publicise.

They have also found a way to refurb decommissioned SCALP-EG missiles and are looking to buy back EOL export sales and ship straight to UA.

The France bashing is lame.

[S/Lt_Phillips]

I was assuming, particularly with the context of the other names on the list, that it's because France haven't actually given all that much to assist Ukraine thus far and Macron's recent tough guy language about boots on the ground thus seems a bit empty or over-compensatory.

France gets bashed a bit without context. The French army radically restructured after the end of the Cold War, away from a conventional land war force and towards a highly mobile expeditionary force. They shed a huge amount of legacy heavy metal in the process. The net result is they didn't, and still don't to a degree, have much to spare for Ukraine. It's not generally realised that the 30 or so CAESAR 155mm SPHs that France initially gave Ukraine in 2022-23 amounted to over 25% of their entire self-propelled artillery force.

Additionally, France has given a significant part of their SCALP-EG missile stocks to Ukraine, and has given over 250 VABs so far with several hundred more to come.

Also France is giving a lot of smaller less expensive kit under the table which they don't publicise.

They have also found a way to refurb decommissioned SCALP-EG missiles and are looking to buy back EOL export sales and ship straight to UA.

The France bashing is lame.

Was it not because France sent a representative to Putin's inauguration? Most EU countries, US, Canada & the UK did not send anyone. France, Slovakia & Hungary did - not sure about Cypress & the others on the list.

[Hellraiser]

Was listening to a live stream of the May 9th parade in Moscow in the car. Apparently they did the fly-over this year but it was a mixture of stock footage and CGI, and they couldn't even get consistency between the aircraft types, weather, or insignia. Clown show of a country.

[sockwithaticket]

Because king Macron said he’s thinking about sending troops to Ukraine?

I was assuming, particularly with the context of the other names on the list, that it's because France haven't actually given all that much to assist Ukraine thus far and Macron's recent tough guy language about boots on the ground thus seems a bit empty or over-compensatory.

France gets bashed a bit without context. The French army radically restructured after the end of the Cold War, away from a conventional land war force and towards a highly mobile expeditionary force. They shed a huge amount of legacy heavy metal in the process. The net result is they didn't, and still don't to a degree, have much to spare for Ukraine. It's not generally realised that the 30 or so CAESAR 155mm SPHs that France initially gave Ukraine in 2022-23 amounted to over 25% of their entire self-propelled artillery force.

Additionally, France has given a significant part of their SCALP-EG missile stocks to Ukraine, and has given over 250 VABs so far with several hundred more to come.

Also France is giving a lot of smaller less expensive kit under the table which they don't publicise.

Like I said I was mainly making an assumption based on the countries list, but it certainly does feel like any contribution they have made has received considerably less press attention than, say, Germany.

[Hellraiser]

I was assuming, particularly with the context of the other names on the list, that it's because France haven't actually given all that much to assist Ukraine thus far and Macron's recent tough guy language about boots on the ground thus seems a bit empty or over-compensatory.

France gets bashed a bit without context. The French army radically restructured after the end of the Cold War, away from a conventional land war force and towards a highly mobile expeditionary force. They shed a huge amount of legacy heavy metal in the process. The net result is they didn't, and still don't to a degree, have much to spare for Ukraine. It's not generally realised that the 30 or so CAESAR 155mm SPHs that France initially gave Ukraine in 2022-23 amounted to over 25% of their entire self-propelled artillery force.

Additionally, France has given a significant part of their SCALP-EG missile stocks to Ukraine, and has given over 250 VABs so far with several hundred more to come.

Also France is giving a lot of smaller less expensive kit under the table which they don't publicise.

Like I said I was mainly making an assumption based on the countries list, but it certainly does feel like any contribution they have made has received considerably less press attention than, say, Germany.

Germany gets more attention because it is the largest, wealthiest country in Europe, has deep historical ties to both Russia and Ukraine, has the largest defence industrial capacity in Europe, the deepest industrial stocks of Western heavy weaponry in Europe, has shirked defence investment and funding since the end of the Cold War, and is substantially responsible for enabling Russian aggression through misguided/corrupt economic, energy, and foreign policies.

[TheNatalShark]

France also doesn't make nice pretty graphics for "journalists" to just grab headline Euro numbers for. The "journalists" then hide behind needing "verifiable" or "official" trot outs, so that they don't have to do any actual work in compiling pretty bad chart graphics. Which then forms large parts of online discussion.

Lots of internal chat in how aid amounts aren't routed through normal hannels in France. When working for French NGO come across plenty of families talking about relatives having been trained in France. But we don't see the nice "UK troops salute to Ukrainian troops leaving training" videos, that swirl around UK talk.

[Hellraiser]

OSINT researcher Richard Vereker notes a new jump in the number of losses among Russia's newest T-90M tanks, as well as among the old T-62. Vereker points out that it is necessary to wait to be sure whether this trend will continue in the future (it could mean problems in making up for the losses of the more standard T-72 and T-80). However, the trend towards a gradual decrease in T-80 losses seems correct to him - many of these tanks were in good condition at storage bases and helped make up for the catastrophic losses of 2022. However, now the number of well-preserved T-80s has decreased significantly, and those that remain have to be reactivated much longer.

@yigal_levin

[Hellraiser]

Interesting point in Lazerpig's latest video; Ukrainian tankers say that Russian tanks will not engage Ukrainians tank units equipped with Western tanks, they stay well out of range.

[Hellraiser]

According to the head of maintenance at FFG and the Danish defence ministry, Ukraine already has 90 Leopard 1A5s. The mechanical issues of last year were solved and without any announcement, by Ukrainian request it seems, there has been continuous transfer of units. Another 20 tanks are to set to be transferred by the end of June, with a further 25 by years end for a total of 135.