Stop voting for fucking Tories

[Biffer]

Two very good friends of mine were telling me at the weekend that it’s time for Boris to come back.

Did you take the time to tell them that they're fucking idiots who are cursing their kids future and deserve to be kicked down the street? Friends should be able to tell each other when they're being really, really fucking stupid. It's the value of having friends.

I laughed, called them a pair of cunts and ordered them to get the beers.

That's one way to approach it tbf

[fishfoodie]

From what I heard on Politics Joe, Labour took the decision on friday and Badenoch's 'proposal' was sent in on saturday.

She's been gifting Starmer, not a man blessed with an ear catching turn of phrase or much humour, opportunities to rather funnily put her down and expose her exaggerate sense of self-importance.

I don't think she'll last till Christmas.

She hasn't laid a glove on Starmer in any PMQs since the GE, & it's not for lack of opportunities, but because she isn't nearly as clever, or as good at Politics as she obviously thinks she is !

The Tories might not want another Leadership race, so they'll probably go down the route of a Coronation after finding an excuse to ditch Badenoch, but they have to start looking like an Opposition soon; & one that could actually win another GE in the next 10-15 years, or else the donors, & their money will go to Frogface Inc, & his gang on Nazis.

There's local Elections, & probably a couple of By-Elections going to happen soon, & the Tories need start performing better in them, or else Kemi's only notable achievement will be lasting a bit longer than Truss.

Two very good friends of mine were telling me at the weekend that it’s time for Boris to come back.

I can see him standing as the Tory Candidate in a By-Election, mostly because there's a sizable contingent in the Tory membership that still hasn't got the message of how toxic he is Post-Partygate, but the Parliamentary Party don't want him back, & while the UK elected Churchill again after kicking him out, the manner of his departure was dramatically different than the Bumblecunts.

This is the classic time for putting in a caretaker to just get the Party thru the next GE, & get them on an even keel, & to give any future leader a few years to develop. The problem is that there's a dearth of candidates for even that relatively simple role, so you'll probably end up with "Honest Bob" leading them into the next Election, & that'll just make either the LibDems, or the scumbags the opposition, depending on what the Economy looks like.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Their problem is whether they'll have a party, Reform, Labour and the Li Dems could strip away what's left, so they mayn't have 3-4 years to start to get back on an even keel. Still, if they fold that might be the first genuine Brexit benefit!

Also entirely possible of course Reform will fold like a pack of cards inside the next 6 months (days really, who knows with Farage) and the crisis will be over for Kemi and Co.

[fishfoodie]

Their problem is whether they'll have a party, Reform, Labour and the Li Dems could strip away what's left, so they mayn't have 3-4 years to start to get back on an even keel. Still, if they fold that might be the first genuine Brexit benefit!

Also entirely possible of course Reform will fold like a pack of cards inside the next 6 months (days really, who knows with Farage) and the crisis will be over for Kemi and Co.

I wonder if Frogface is caught in a quandary that he doesn't know what to do with Reform ?

I mean he's fundamentally just another grifter, but here he is with the potential to actually have a viable Political Party; but to have it, he needs to change it from Farage Inc to a proper Party, & that means they might get rid of him; but if he does that then he has to put in some money & build a proper membership to do the campaigning etc that happens in other Parties, because the lack of that was ultimately what fucked up things for them in the last GE. They were a shambles & didn't vet candidates, didn't have polls & didn't target seats, & didn't do the nuts & bolts that could have given them 45 Seats, instead of 5(?).

I think he was previously aiming for just grifting in the US to present himself as the Le Pen of England, guzzling up vast amounts of money while never getting anywhere, but now he knows he actually has a chance to supplanting the Tories, but he doesn't want to spend his own money; hence him making cow eyes at Space Nazi !

[Biffer]

Their problem is whether they'll have a party, Reform, Labour and the Li Dems could strip away what's left, so they mayn't have 3-4 years to start to get back on an even keel. Still, if they fold that might be the first genuine Brexit benefit!

Also entirely possible of course Reform will fold like a pack of cards inside the next 6 months (days really, who knows with Farage) and the crisis will be over for Kemi and Co.

I wonder if Frogface is caught in a quandary that he doesn't know what to do with Reform ?

I mean he's fundamentally just another grifter, but here he is with the potential to actually have a viable Political Party; but to have it, he needs to change it from Farage Inc to a proper Party, & that means they might get rid of him; but if he does that then he has to put in some money & build a proper membership to do the campaigning etc that happens in other Parties, because the lack of that was ultimately what fucked up things for them in the last GE. They were a shambles & didn't vet candidates, didn't have polls & didn't target seats, & didn't do the nuts & bolts that could have given them 45 Seats, instead of 5(?).

I think he was previously aiming for just grifting in the US to present himself as the Le Pen of England, guzzling up vast amounts of money while never getting anywhere, but now he knows he actually has a chance to supplanting the Tories, but he doesn't want to spend his own money; hence him making cow eyes at Space Nazi !

More importantly, hell have to actually have policies and potentially be part of a future government. He doesn't want that, he wants to shout from the sidelines because he knows none of his shit will actually work.

[Calculon]

Also, importantly, a language.

I think the French have a better appreciation and understanding of this and when I read Macrons book he talked about the community of French speakers, the shared literary history of France and stuff like that. I forget what broader point he was making but it stuck with me how important language is to identity.

In that sense I'd venture an English speaker in the Anglosphere who is well versed in the English canon and English history is more English than someone who is born in England but in every other respect does not have any credentials.

Culture, language, history, shared values, that's all important stuff unless you think of identity in crudely reductionist terms. The whole subject is incredibly nuanced and complicated and it grates somewhat that the people who are most enamoured with identity politics engage with it in such a superficial manner.

Language is ridiculously overrated as a symbol of identity, & Culture. As a Countryman of mine put it, "England and America are two countries separated by a common language".

You could obviously say the same of England & Ireland, or America & Canada, Brazil & Portugal, etc, etc, etc.

What matters is the shared expectations & values of the citizens; that's what binds them together, not a shared language.

Just look at the reaction of Canadians to the suggestion that they should just become another US State, because they aren't a "real" Country anyway. The ignoramus suggesting it just showed how he knows the square root of fuck all about what your average Canadian thinks of as their identity as a citizen, & what their culture is, whether they are of European descent, or Asian, or 1st Nation.

Language drives culture and values and all the other stuff though. Culture is downstream of language.

All English speaking countries are more closely aligned on diplomacy, intel, defence etc precisely due to a shared language and the shared traditions that result from that.

except for MAGA america - at least diplomatically and i'm pretty sure intel as well now with a rusian asset like Gabbard in charge. Defence alingment yes, but surely as much to do with American military dominance of NATO as for any language reasons. Also igoring the non english speaking countries who are closely aligned to america, the likes of Japan and south korea. That's anyway going to change with MAGA hostility to any american overseas deployment and the Trump's pro russian policy.

and presumably excluding all the non-white majority english speaking cuntries, or are the 100 of millions of indians, saffas, malaysians, botswanans, jamiacans etc who speak fluent english since childhood more closely alligned to each other, to the USA and the UK. English is a global language, cultural ties between speakers are variable

actually i think most brits are culturaly closer to other western europeans compared to many, if not most, Yanks with their hostility to "socialized medicine" and their love of guns and jesus

[dpedin]

Language is ridiculously overrated as a symbol of identity, & Culture. As a Countryman of mine put it, "England and America are two countries separated by a common language".

You could obviously say the same of England & Ireland, or America & Canada, Brazil & Portugal, etc, etc, etc.

What matters is the shared expectations & values of the citizens; that's what binds them together, not a shared language.

Just look at the reaction of Canadians to the suggestion that they should just become another US State, because they aren't a "real" Country anyway. The ignoramus suggesting it just showed how he knows the square root of fuck all about what your average Canadian thinks of as their identity as a citizen, & what their culture is, whether they are of European descent, or Asian, or 1st Nation.

Language drives culture and values and all the other stuff though. Culture is downstream of language.

All English speaking countries are more closely aligned on diplomacy, intel, defence etc precisely due to a shared language and the shared traditions that result from that.

except for MAGA america - at least diplomatically and i'm pretty sure intel as well now with a rusian asset like Gabbard in charge. Defence alingment yes, but surely as much to do with American military dominance of NATO as for any language reasons. Also igoring the non english speaking countries who are closely aligned to america, the likes of Japan and south korea. That's anyway going to change with MAGA hostility to any american overseas deployment and the Trump's pro russian policy.

and presumably excluding all the non-white majority english speaking cuntries, or are the 100 of millions of indians, saffas, malaysians, botswanans, jamiacans etc who speak fluent english since childhood more closely alligned to each other, to the USA and the UK. English is a global language, cultural ties between speakers are variable

actually i think most brits are culturaly closer to other western europeans compared to many, if not most, Yanks with their hostility to "socialized medicine" and their love of guns and jesus

Having visited the US and Europe France, Belgium and Germany, many times in recent years I can confirm I'm far more comfortable and have far more in common with the latter than the US. Yes we speak the same, sort of, language as the US but culturally we are far closer to France, Belgium, Germany than we are the US. Language has feck all to do with it.

I think we have to accept the right wing, billionaire facists have taken over the US in a coup and it might not recover from this. There will be significant social unrest in the US once the huge swinging cuts in social security, healthcare, Gov employment, etc begin to have a real impact upon the lower and middle classes and they struggle to buy food, buy goods, survive financially and get healthcare. The move to rid the US of DEI is a cover for establishing a more racist society and there will be race riots again if they continue as is. Mass immigration will be ramped up with 'holding/internment camps' filled up with 'illegals who will be dumped in Mexico and South America. Meanwhile the US economy, after an initial surge, will collapse as the loss of labour has an impact. The US army will be put on the streets to 'keep order' and this will trigger huge constitutional issues. This is want Trump and his bampot zealots want ... an excuse to declare martial law and scrap any forthcoming elections. It will get very very nasty indeed!

Meanwhile the debate about whether the US should leave NATO and the UN will escalate. Putin is all smiles!

[fishfoodie]

...

Meanwhile the debate about whether the US should leave NATO and the UN will escalate. Putin is all smiles!

Well he'll be all smiles until he realizes if he'd put off invading Ukraine until the Traitor was in office, he would probably have succeeded in his original plan, & not have had his army, navy & economy fucked up; but I suppose when you know you're dying, you don't want to delay.

[SaintK]

Cracks starting to appear at the top of Reform?

Reform UK is facing a split at the top after Nigel Farage called one of his most prominent MPs “utterly completely wrong” for calling him the “messianic” leader of a protest party.
Farage hit out at Rupert Lowe after the Great Yarmouth MP and former Southampton FC chair criticised his leadership publicly in an interview.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2 ... p-style

[SaintK]

Cracks starting to appear at the top of Reform?

Reform UK is facing a split at the top after Nigel Farage called one of his most prominent MPs “utterly completely wrong” for calling him the “messianic” leader of a protest party.
Farage hit out at Rupert Lowe after the Great Yarmouth MP and former Southampton FC chair criticised his leadership publicly in an interview.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2 ... p-style

And now all of a sudden Rupert Lowe is being investigated by the police for threatening and intimidating behaviour

[dpedin]

Cracks starting to appear at the top of Reform?

Reform UK is facing a split at the top after Nigel Farage called one of his most prominent MPs “utterly completely wrong” for calling him the “messianic” leader of a protest party.
Farage hit out at Rupert Lowe after the Great Yarmouth MP and former Southampton FC chair criticised his leadership publicly in an interview.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2 ... p-style

And now all of a sudden Rupert Lowe is being investigated by the police for threatening and intimidating behaviour

The facist, racist right wing of the Tory Party seems to be imploding! This will really damage Farage's bid for the Tory leadership?

[SaintK]

Cracks starting to appear at the top of Reform?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2 ... p-style

And now all of a sudden Rupert Lowe is being investigated by the police for threatening and intimidating behaviour

The facist, racist right wing of the Tory Party seems to be imploding! This will really damage Farage's bid for the Tory leadership?

Pull up a chair and grab your popcorn. It's getting more interesting by the day!!!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv4lev7vdjo

[Hugo]

This episode really just underscores how fundamentally unserious Farage is. It's obvious to everyone of course but this makes it irrefutable.

A lot of the support his party has got in the past 6 months has been on the back of Lowe who is proving to be a competent MP. He is articulate, forthright and hard working. He sees the British state as being in disarray and is advocating for the type of transparency necessary for the problems to be properly diagnosed and remedied. He's almost 70, doesn't collect his salary for MP and frankly has no skin in the game other than wanting to see things improve.

Farage on the other hand operates in in bad faith. He absolutely does not want to be in government because that would require three things:
1. Coming up with policy
2. Work
3. Accountability.

Farage knows it's far easier to be in perennial opposition and not have to knuckle down and do work. The last thing he wants to have to do is be bogged down in the work and the details - even if he got into power he would not know what to do with it. Instead he's figured out there is plenty of money to be made grifting from the sidelines and weighing into the cultural stuff.

The reason Farage and Lowe are at odds is because one has substance, the other is superficial.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Lowe is harder working than Farage, fair enough. But the noting the climate change denying loon to be a person of substance simply for working harder than someone who doesn't turn up to work is a stretch.

[Hugo]

Lowe is harder working than Farage, fair enough. But the noting the climate change denying loon to be a person of substance simply for working harder than someone who doesn't turn up to work is a stretch.

Not really seeing "loon" as an apt descriptor of Lowe.

Realistically I see him as the type of MP you would expect a 67 year old, privately educated and wealthy man to be. He's the sort of bloke who would be in the rotary club or President of a golf or cricket club. A bit stuffy, maybe a little out of touch with younger generations but a pillar of the community nonetheless.

The likes of Anderson and Farage are by comparison chancers, I think part of the reason they have tried to freeze him out is because by comparison he makes them look like shit. I mean, "common sense food from the capital of common sense", who buys into this sort of idiocy?
https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1897971381146411092

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Lowe is harder working than Farage, fair enough. But the noting the climate change denying loon to be a person of substance simply for working harder than someone who doesn't turn up to work is a stretch.

Not really seeing "loon" as an apt descriptor of Lowe.

Realistically I see him as the type of MP you would expect a 67 year old, privately educated and wealthy man to be. He's the sort of bloke who would be in the rotary club or President of a golf or cricket club. A bit stuffy, maybe a little out of touch with younger generations but a pillar of the community nonetheless.

The likes of Anderson and Farage are by comparison chancers, I think part of the reason they have tried to freeze him out is because by comparison he makes them look like shit. I mean, "common sense food from the capital of common sense", who buys into this sort of idiocy?
https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1897971381146411092

He's in favour of Brexit, so an economic loon. And he argues the cause for not acting in the face of climate change, so a more general science/reality loon.

Lowe may indeed look better than Anderson and Farage, but being better than scum isn't the same as being a person of substance

[Paddington Bear]

Lowe has had a proper think about what Reform might do in government and how. He’s competent enough to understand roughly what it would involve. Farage of course has no interest in running the country, he wants a bigger office and better spaces in Westminster to host drinks. Hence the tension

[Rhubarb & Custard]

a competent brexiter is an oxymoron

[Paddington Bear]

a competent brexiter is an oxymoron

Whether a platform for government is well thought out and sensible is open to interpretation. People from across the political spectrum can be very effective at implementing it, sometimes leaving the rest of us wishing they hadn’t.

Lowe clearly was and is putting a lot of thought into how a hard right government might actually achieve something, having seen the complete failure of the Tory project under Boris and his successors. Whether he’d have managed it or not we’ll never know, but he certainly had a better chance than Farage does, not least because he tried

[dpedin]

Let's not get carried away with all the claims about Reform politics and policies, a fringe party with 5 MPs (at time of writing). It is a bit like arguing how much of a Nazi Hitler was! This is essentially a fight about the ownership and control of Reform. The 'party' was essentially owned by Farage and Tice and under pressure from the membership changed to a Company Limited by Guarantee in February this year. However they are still forming their Governing Board which interestingly will still have a majority of Board members made up of the Party Chairman and Leader and others these two select. Only three members of the Board will be elected by the membership. So Reform will still essential be controlled by Farage and his mates. The current fight is about this new structure and a challenge for the leadership - whoever is Reform Leader will in effect take over full control of Reform - and Lowe fancies is chances to be new leader and take over Reform completely. Everything else is just bullshit. It will be fun to watch as all those concerned will go in full throttle and chuck every bit of dirt they have at the other in order to win the fight for control - and there are a lot of skeletons in the cupboard! Pass the popcorn ... I'm waiting for Musk to wade in again, unless he is too busy trying to put fires out at Tesla dealerships and convincing Governments not to cancel the Starlink contracts?

[Tichtheid]

UKIP, Brexit Party, Reform - I wonder what Farage's next party will be called?

[Paddington Bear]

Of course it’s a battle for control of the party - in one corner is Lowe who has seen the polling and the state of the two main parties and decided that there’s a chance to 1) win an election then 2) shape the country in a right wing direction that he feels would be more successful.

In the other is Farage for whom this is all just a game, power would actually be a disaster, and the aim is to hold the balance of power propping up a Tory PM, meaning that he gets invited to all the parties, is on tv the whole time and winds up with a peerage. That peerage not coincidentally is also his pension.

Farage’s issue is that Lowe is the first person in any of his parties who is 1) independently wealthy and 2) not interested in the social side of Westminster, which is why he’s been unable to dispose of him as he has just about every other figure with even a crumb of substance to them

[Rhubarb & Custard]

If Farage isn't eying up ceding Reform to Lowe and instead taking over the Tory Party he needs some new advisors. The local elections are coming up soon and the Tories are defending a whole slew of seats they won because of Brexit/Boris, seats that often there'd be nothing they could have done to have held onto had they been outstanding in government and opposition. That surely presents Farage with a giant open goal.

[dpedin]

Farage and Lowe, Lowe and Farage ... both are as bad as each other to be honest, rats in sack. Pair of racist, xenophobic, addled shit stains as far as I am concerned. How on earth does a party of 5 MPs have a split and all fall out with each other for fecks sake! It is a bit like watching a couple of elderly, food stained, pissed having had too much port, blazer wearing, 28 handicap members having a fight at the end of the Golf Club Dinner. No one gives a shit about them and it is cringeworthy to watch.

Nicky Campbell had an hour of 'discussion' on BBC R5 this morning about this with a number of Reform members contributing including Ben Habib. What a shower of crap, they all ended up shouting at each other about Trump, Tommy Robinson, etc. Hilarious to listen to and Nicky Campbell was just continually taking the piss asking his usual 'questions' and setting them all up without any of them realizing he was doing it! A joy to listen to a master at work.

[SaintK]

Of course it’s a battle for control of the party - in one corner is Lowe who has seen the polling and the state of the two main parties and decided that there’s a chance to 1) win an election then 2) shape the country in a right wing direction that he feels would be more successful.

In the other is Farage for whom this is all just a game, power would actually be a disaster, and the aim is to hold the balance of power propping up a Tory PM, meaning that he gets invited to all the parties, is on tv the whole time and winds up with a peerage. That peerage not coincidentally is also his pension.

Farage’s issue is that Lowe is the first person in any of his parties who is 1) independently wealthy and 2) not interested in the social side of Westminster, which is why he’s been unable to dispose of him as he has just about every other figure with even a crumb of substance to them

See you in court Nige!

Ever since this malicious attack on my reputation was launched, all I have asked for from both Reform and the KC is credible evidence against me. None has been provided. It still hasn’t. The KC has said she has been ‘chasing’ for that. I have received nothing. Because there is no credible evidence against me …
I have been in discussions with my legal team this afternoon, and this will be followed by legal action in due course. I will not have my name dragged through the mud as part of a political assassination because I dared to question Nigel Farage. You have to stand up to bullies, and I am doing exactly that.

[Yeeb]

Farage and Lowe, Lowe and Farage ... both are as bad as each other to be honest, rats in sack. Pair of racist, xenophobic, addled shit stains as far as I am concerned. How on earth does a party of 5 MPs have a split and all fall out with each other for fecks sake! It is a bit like watching a couple of elderly, food stained, pissed having had too much port, blazer wearing, 28 handicap members having a fight at the end of the Golf Club Dinner. No one gives a shit about them and it is cringeworthy to watch.

Nicky Campbell had an hour of 'discussion' on BBC R5 this morning about this with a number of Reform members contributing including Ben Habib. What a shower of crap, they all ended up shouting at each other about Trump, Tommy Robinson, etc. Hilarious to listen to and Nicky Campbell was just continually taking the piss asking his usual 'questions' and setting them all up without any of them realizing he was doing it! A joy to listen to a master at work.

Sounds like the ‘that’s you that is’ old gits fighting from Mary Whitehouse experience.

Expelling all illegal immigrants sounds a good plan though , and a vote winner. Look forward to some cop vans battering doors open at 4am & loading up with all these illegal doctors and engineers.

[SaintK]

This should work out well then?

A Reform UK general election candidate who said Hitler was “brilliant” at inspiring people and described Bashar al-Assad as “gentle by nature” is now in charge of the party’s vetting process.
Jack Aaron’s comments about the Nazi leader and Syrian dictator came to light last year when he stood for Reform in the Welwyn Hatfield constituency. He also claimed Vladimir Putin’s use of force in Ukraine was “legitimate”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2 ... f-vetting

[SaintK]

Not sure why this has taken 10 months to investigate

The former Conservative MP Craig Williams is among 15 people, including several other senior Tories, charged by the Gambling Commission for alleged cheating connected to bets based on the date of the 2024 UK general election.
Williams was the MP for Montgomeryshire and Rishi Sunak’s parliamentary private secretary, but lost the support of the Conservative party after a Guardian story about alleged bets placed on a July election just days before the date was announced.

Among others charged, according to a Gambling Commission statement, was Russell George, a Tory member of the Welsh parliament who represents the same area as Williams did.
Others charged include Laura Saunders, the Conservative candidate for Bristol North West in July, who also lost party support after the investigation emerged; Tony Lee, the Conservatives’ campaigns director, who is married to Saunders; and Nick Mason, who was the Tories’ chief data officer at the time.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/20 ... election

[_Os_]

Of course it’s a battle for control of the party - in one corner is Lowe who has seen the polling and the state of the two main parties and decided that there’s a chance to 1) win an election then 2) shape the country in a right wing direction that he feels would be more successful.

In the other is Farage for whom this is all just a game, power would actually be a disaster, and the aim is to hold the balance of power propping up a Tory PM, meaning that he gets invited to all the parties, is on tv the whole time and winds up with a peerage. That peerage not coincidentally is also his pension.

Farage’s issue is that Lowe is the first person in any of his parties who is 1) independently wealthy and 2) not interested in the social side of Westminster, which is why he’s been unable to dispose of him as he has just about every other figure with even a crumb of substance to them

That's true, but you're missing that Frog Face and his team are quite good at this. What Frog Face understands and Lowe does not, is that if a party lets in Tommy Ten Names and other loonies, then goes into the great replacement stuff, it becomes a dustbin for the far right and nothing else. It would become irrelevant, another NF or BNP.

The skill of Frog Face is putting a human face onto something that's ugly and using that to gain support and prominence (as you say). His actual stated positions down the years don't indicate he cares much about even Brexit or immigration, he has supported every possible Brexit outcome including (very briefly) another referendum when he thought he had lost, he's also supported more Indian immigration over European immigration on the basis Indians are more culturally similar to English people than any Europeans (no, I'm not making this up).

It's possible in about a decade the buffoons on the right will be replaced by actual competent fascist authoritarians, not convinced Lowe is that guy, but maybe he is or there'll be someone else. It's more likely they've blown their chance, had nearly a decade long runway from 2016, achieved a widely disliked Brexit and nothing else. The UK's demographics in the 2030s are going to be quite a bit different to the 2010s, the Jenrick/Lowe approach just means no version of the right ever comes back.

Frog Face is probably as far to the right as anyone can go and still be viable, which is why he's dangerous. If Frog Face ever became PM he would be a combination of Big Dog and Truss. An incompetent disaster trying to implement turbo Thatcherism and making everything worse.

[Paddington Bear]

It's possible in about a decade the buffoons on the right will be replaced by actual competent fascist authoritarians, not convinced Lowe is that guy, but maybe he is or there'll be someone else. It's more likely they've blown their chance, had nearly a decade long runway from 2016, achieved a widely disliked Brexit and nothing else. The UK's demographics in the 2030s are going to be quite a bit different to the 2010s, the Jenrick/Lowe approach just means no version of the right ever comes back

Agree with a lot of the rest of your post, but given we have just seen a stonking majority won on 34% of the vote I don’t think this quite flies, particularly as the rapidly growing Indian community (who remember don’t even need to be citizens to vote) will be happy to row in behind a ‘deport Muslims’ platform.

Lowe I assume is waiting for Jenrick to topple Badenoch and then to defect. Neither of the pair are exactly central casting statesmen, they do though have, to their credit, of being exceptionally rare on the right in thinking about what a right wing government might look like, beyond drinks receptions, Telegraph columns and feeling up assistants. Can they win 45% of the vote? Can’t see it. 35? Definitely possible.

They may well go nowhere but our politics is far too febrile to say anything with much certainty.

[robmatic]

2025 demographics are giving Reform + Tories a combined 46% in the opinion polls. One of them isn't a real party and the other one is demonstrably inept.

From that starting point, I wouldn't be entirely confident that technocratic managed decline will win the next election for Labour.

[fishfoodie]

Not sure why this has taken 10 months to investigate

The former Conservative MP Craig Williams is among 15 people, including several other senior Tories, charged by the Gambling Commission for alleged cheating connected to bets based on the date of the 2024 UK general election.
Williams was the MP for Montgomeryshire and Rishi Sunak’s parliamentary private secretary, but lost the support of the Conservative party after a Guardian story about alleged bets placed on a July election just days before the date was announced.

Among others charged, according to a Gambling Commission statement, was Russell George, a Tory member of the Welsh parliament who represents the same area as Williams did.
Others charged include Laura Saunders, the Conservative candidate for Bristol North West in July, who also lost party support after the investigation emerged; Tony Lee, the Conservatives’ campaigns director, who is married to Saunders; and Nick Mason, who was the Tories’ chief data officer at the time.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/20 ... election

To be fair, in so called, "White Collar Crime" it is particularly hard to build a case, & the Prosecutor is then stuck with a case that will put a jury to sleep & the burden of proof is comparatively easy for the defense to mess up; just look at the Guinness case a gazillion years ago.

Money buys the Law, it doesn't matter what Country you're in; if you can afford a better defence, you'll get away with crimes that someone poorer will go to prison for.

[_Os_]

It's possible in about a decade the buffoons on the right will be replaced by actual competent fascist authoritarians, not convinced Lowe is that guy, but maybe he is or there'll be someone else. It's more likely they've blown their chance, had nearly a decade long runway from 2016, achieved a widely disliked Brexit and nothing else. The UK's demographics in the 2030s are going to be quite a bit different to the 2010s, the Jenrick/Lowe approach just means no version of the right ever comes back

Agree with a lot of the rest of your post, but given we have just seen a stonking majority won on 34% of the vote I don’t think this quite flies, particularly as the rapidly growing Indian community (who remember don’t even need to be citizens to vote) will be happy to row in behind a ‘deport Muslims’ platform.

Lowe I assume is waiting for Jenrick to topple Badenoch and then to defect. Neither of the pair are exactly central casting statesmen, they do though have, to their credit, of being exceptionally rare on the right in thinking about what a right wing government might look like, beyond drinks receptions, Telegraph columns and feeling up assistants. Can they win 45% of the vote? Can’t see it. 35? Definitely possible.

They may well go nowhere but our politics is far too febrile to say anything with much certainty.

However fast the British Indian population is growing, Hindus aren't putting up great numbers they grew by 200k between the 2011 and 2021 census. About half the Indians in the UK are Muslims/Sikhs/Christians. People forget India is one of the most populous Muslim nations, on the number of people (not the % of the population) only Pakistan and Indonesia have more. There's also a generation divide, older Hindus will vote for the Indian regardless of party, younger Hindus who are from the UK are a lot less likely to do that. There's also a divide over the BJP, some quite like the Tory rallies with Modi and the anti-Muslim stuff, others the exact opposite.

The problem with the 34% of the vote argument, is it's an FPTP system which excluding NI now has 7 parties able to win multiple seats (8 if you include the Muslim independents). Of those Labour/Tories/Lib Dems/SNP all have proven ability to win large numbers of seats and Frog Face maybe could. To my knowledge this is unique in an FPTP system. I do think it leaves the Tories more vulnerable than Labour. The advantage the Tories always had was their voters were evenly spread in just the right amounts everywhere, the weakness Labour always had was in some places they were weighing their vote and in other places they had no one. Not many wasted Tory votes, a lot of wasted Labour votes. If the Lib Dems are competitive again and Frog Face and the Greens show up, then Labour strongholds having ridiculously high walls could become an advantage and the Tories being evenly spread a disadvantage. It has already sort of happened when you compare Corbyn to the Tories last time, the Tory wipe out was a lot worse. Plausible if that many parties are in the race that a nailed on majority goes from 40% to 35% and being competitive goes from 35% to 30%.

Is Jenrick actually serious, or is he putting on a performance for the membership? Always a bit suspicious of people that seem to radically change direction once they're elected. He knows the membership will select the most right wing candidate possible.

[_Os_]

2025 demographics are giving Reform + Tories a combined 46% in the opinion polls. One of them isn't a real party and the other one is demonstrably inept.

From that starting point, I wouldn't be entirely confident that technocratic managed decline will win the next election for Labour.

The clue about Reform is in the personal polling for Frog Face. He has always had 40% to 50% disapproval and 20% approval, basically 10% to 20% are hardcore behind Frog Face no matter what and the rest don't care or don't like him. Yougov now puts him as high as 65% disapproval, and most polls are showing him around 30% approval. The net approval rating is irrelevant, it's the hardcore supporters at 20%-ish and the growth of approval which matters.

What it looks like is around half of Reform support are well to the right of the Tories and will never vote Tory (they're genuine fascists, or ex-Labour people who cannot stomach voting Tory). They're just voting for whoever is the most right wing, these are the people saying Frog Face is actually a Commie who should step down and find themselves in the awkward position of being fascist and demanding internal party democracy. But there's also something else going on where a lot of Tories seem to really like Frog Face and that's where Reform's growth is coming from.

This gets a bit morbid, but the main demographic issue is the Tory vote is disproportionately older, meaning unless something changes (they get more voters under the age of 50) they're in for serious problems. As things stand disproportionately more Tory voters polled now will not be around by the next election. The secondary demographic issue is it's going to be harder for them to win if they're disproportionately failing to win voters who are not white, it'll mean needing to win a higher % of white voters.

Technocratic managed decline is what the UK electorate likes best. Certainly there's no tolerance of anything radical from Labour, cannot have "chaos under Red Ed". A lot of the Big Dog majority was about the fear of Corbyn. My bet is Starmer struggles more against a Cameron type candidate than someone who can be made to look crazy. I've thought for awhile Labour are focusing attacks on the Tories and mostly ignoring Reform, which is boosting Reform, because they want a Starmer vs Frog Face election. Could be a mistake Frog Face is very slippery.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

There might be less old people, but for 'reasons' they're still more willing to walk the gruelling 10 minutes or so to a polling station and stand in a queue for mere minutes more than those under 30

[Tichtheid]

If anyone wants a grim, hollow laugh - Liz Truss says Trump is right about everything and that the likes of Farrage aren't hardline enough

oh and it was the deep state Bank of England wot fucked the markets, not her

https://archive.ph/W6Btg

[C69]

If anyone wants a grim, hollow laugh - Liz Truss says Trump is right about everything and that the likes of Farrage aren't hardline enough

oh and it was the deep state Bank of England wot fucked the markets, not her

https://archive.ph/W6Btg

Deluded salad brained idiot

[fishfoodie]

If anyone wants a grim, hollow laugh - Liz Truss says Trump is right about everything and that the likes of Farrage aren't hardline enough

oh and it was the deep state Bank of England wot fucked the markets, not her

https://archive.ph/W6Btg

Deluded salad brained idiot

That's an overly kind way of describing her, & how & why the Torygraph continues to platform her is bizarre, when you consider just how badly she fucked the Tory Party

[Lobby]

If anyone wants a grim, hollow laugh - Liz Truss says Trump is right about everything and that the likes of Farrage aren't hardline enough

oh and it was the deep state Bank of England wot fucked the markets, not her

https://archive.ph/W6Btg

Deluded salad brained idiot

That's an overly kind way of describing her, & how & why the Torygraph continues to platform her is bizarre, when you consider just how badly she fucked the Tory Party

As the Telegraph continues to shift rightwards, it probably finds the current Tory party a bit too centrist and not quite mad enough for its primary readership, so its hardly a surprise it continues to promote Truss. Its more of a Reform paper now.

[SaintK]

Deluded salad brained idiot

That's an overly kind way of describing her, & how & why the Torygraph continues to platform her is bizarre, when you consider just how badly she fucked the Tory Party

As the Telegraph continues to shift rightwards, it probably finds the current Tory party a bit too centrist and not quite mad enough for its primary readership, so its hardly a surprise it continues to promote Truss. Its more of a Reform paper now.

Sppot on. It's a hysterical right wing shit sheet