What's going on in Ukraine?

[PornDog]

[fishfoodie]

It wasn't a grenade and he wasn't drinking on a bench. It was an IED and he was meeting with a gay hook-up.

What happens when the Ukrainians crack your Grinder account .....

[Gumboot]

LISTEN, VLAD! I'VE TOLD YOU A MILLION TIMES!! THIS IS YOUR FINAL WARNING!!!

xx

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

In a hypothetical conflict with Russia, NATO and the United States would gain decisive air superiority, according to a new analysis conducted by the RAND Corporation for the U.S. Air Force.

Other key findings from the report include:

• In the RAND simulation, Russia attacks a NATO member state and claims its territory, in response to which the Alliance will be forced to organize a counterattack to regain control.

• Unlike the Russian-Ukrainian war, where there is positional stagnation, NATO would be able to quickly establish control over the airspace of Eastern Europe, which would allow it to effectively support ground operations.

• But despite its clear technological and air superiority, NATO lags behind Russia in the area of ​​mass production of ammunition, the introduction of small drones and experience in the use of electronic warfare systems.

• The study emphasizes that a large-scale conflict could escalate into a nuclear war, especially if Russia feels its integrity is threatened.

• But when researchers modeled such a conflict in a wargame, they put aside the nuclear map to study how a conventional struggle would play out.

• Analysts note that yes, in the first days Russia will most likely be able to strike at Alliance troops and achieve success, but then, if NATO acts actively and decisively, the allies will ensure dominance in the air space over Eastern Europe.

• Neutralization of Russian aviation and air defense systems, according to experts, will open the way for active reconnaissance work and precision strikes.

• NATO aircraft will be able to track Russian movements and launch massive strikes on command posts, logistics centers and combat units.

• Analysts believe that breaking the situation and taking control of the sky will allow NATO to seize the initiative in the shortest possible time.

• RAND Recommendations: To improve preparedness for a potential conflict with Russia, the report recommends accelerating investments in priority munitions production, as well as small drone technology and counter-drone systems.

• Accelerating investment in drones and counter-drone technologies is not just important, it is critical .

• This research is being conducted against the backdrop of and based on reports from Alliance intelligence services, which have repeatedly warned that the Kremlin could launch a military attack on one of the NATO countries within the next five years.

@yigal_levin

[Hellraiser]

Ukrainian combat aviation will receive significantly improved interoperability capabilities thanks to the integration of the CRC command and control (CSI) system from NATO.

Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine for Digital Development Kateryna Chernogorenko confirmed the signing of a license agreement for the use of this key non-commercial software.

CSI is NATO's forward data link buffer, which enables real-time information exchange between various command and control elements.

This means that Ukrainian aircraft (we are talking about the F-16, Mirage 2000, and Saab 340B AWACS aircraft) with the necessary equipment will be able to more effectively coordinate actions both among themselves and with ground-based anti-aircraft missile systems and ships.

The system uses standardized NATO data links, including Link 11A, Link 11B and especially Link 16.

The CSI functionality covers the transmission and retransmission of data through multiple nodes and communication channels, the formation of a real-time overall operational picture of the air, surface and ground space, as well as the ability to designate targets and control air defense forces.

@yigal_levin

[Hellraiser]

Recent interview with the CEO of Leonardo in Italy:

[tabascoboy]

[Margin__Walker]

Drones launched from trucks deep inside Russia.

That's some operation.

[Uncle fester]

Drones launched from trucks deep inside Russia.

That's some operation.

Border is so long that troops can probably cross non-contested areas pretty easily.

[Blackmac]

Over 40 bombers destroyed.

[PornDog]

Drones launched from trucks deep inside Russia.

That's some operation.

I was wondering about that. Whatever about the range, the potential to be spotted and interdicted would be too great if launched from Ukraine. I wonder could they even launch from within the likes of Belarus (or even Kazakhstan for Siberian attacks)

[tabascoboy]

Certainly explains how there have been some very deep range attacks inside Russia, seems that local truck drivers are duped into driving the trucks presumably on a promise of moolah or vodka on delivery...

[Hellraiser]

OSINT specialist Garbuz, leading resource Dnipro Osint, notes that as of 18:00, the destruction of 7 Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 strategic aviation aircraft and 1 An-12 military transport aircraft has been visually confirmed.

That is, 8 aircraft at two airfields, but the real number is higher, therefore, as Garbuz rightly calls, we need to wait for satellite images for complete information.

And yes, we are talking about destroyed aircraft, not damaged ones - even minus the conditional 10 aircraft (we take the most conservative bar) - this is a multiple of the load on the rest of the strategic aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces.

@yigal_levin

[geordie_6]

Not only a phenomenally successful operation in terms of the destruction of the planes, but now the Orcs are going to be checking every single container they come across...

[tabascoboy]

Not only a phenomenally successful operation in terms of the destruction of the planes, but now the Orcs are going to be checking every single container they come across...

UA have been teasing about the Kerch Bridge so long that so much of Russia's attention must be there it opens up other opportunities where they aren't looking. However, we can probably expect reprisals in the form of more attacks on civilian targets in UA.

[Hellraiser]

7 billion US dollars. This is the estimated cost of the enemy's strategic aviation, which was hit today as a result of the SBU special operation "Website".

34% of strategic cruise missile carriers at the main airfields of the Russian Federation were hit.

We will tell you about the details of the special operation of the Security Service a little later.

And for now, we can only say one thing to the Russians:
"Did you think that Ukraine was so simple? Ukraine is great. Ukraine is exclusive. It has passed all the roller coasters of history. It has undergone all kinds of tests. It is tempered with the highest tempering. In the conditions of the modern world, it has no price." (c) Lina Kostenko

We are doing everything to expel the enemy from our native land! We will beat him at sea, in the air and on land. And if necessary, we will get him out of the ground.

Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!

[Niegs]

Come fly with me!

[fishfoodie]

Not only a phenomenally successful operation in terms of the destruction of the planes, but now the Orcs are going to be checking every single container they come across...

It's hard to overstate how epic an operation this was; it might even rival Midway in terms of gutting an arm of enemy so effectively, that they'll have to decide if they can risk their remaining forces, or should they just withdraw their remaining strategic bombers so they can still retain some kind of threat.

The main message is that no where in Russia is safe !!

[Firewater]

Not only a phenomenally successful operation in terms of the destruction of the planes, but now the Orcs are going to be checking every single container they come across...

It's hard to overstate how epic an operation this was; it might even rival Midway in terms of gutting an arm of enemy so effectively, that they'll have to decide if they can risk their remaining forces, or should they just withdraw their remaining strategic bombers so they can still retain some kind of threat.

The main message is that no where in Russia is safe !!

Anyone who thinks this is epic needs their head read

There was a chance of peace but its the last thing the maxists and criminals running Europe want. They have destroyed Europe, and need a distraction and hope a major war and a glorious defeat of Russia, that gives them access to their mininal wealth etc, will save them.

It won't. China , Russia and Iran etc will win a major war. And China will back Russia as they know if Russia goes, they are next.

I hope the people of Europe stop thsi madness. It only a few at the top who want war

[mat the expat]

Billy Mykhailo vibes without the loss of crew

Very well done - and they (rightly) kept it secret from the US to avoid compromise

Those Bears are a big hit - they have the biggest capacity and range for launching Cruise missiles. With the latest missiles in theatre, the Russians won't risk their Blackjacks as they need to retain them for Nuclear Deterrent use

[Gumboot]

Very well done - and they (rightly) kept it secret from the US to avoid compromise

Yep, well played by Ukraine. And they were far too smart to alert the Russian asset in the WH.

Now hopefully they can sink that bastard bridge.

[Guy Smiley]

Very well done - and they (rightly) kept it secret from the US to avoid compromise

Yep, well played by Ukraine. And they were far too smart to alert the Russian asset in the WH.

Now hopefully they can sink that bastard bridge.

Re-engineered shipping containers hiding the drones within upper compartments and transported by local Russian trucking operators?

Fucking brilliant. The question for the Russians right now is, how many other shipping containers are parked up right now ready to deploy?

[Firewater]

Very well done - and they (rightly) kept it secret from the US to avoid compromise

Yep, well played by Ukraine. And they were far too smart to alert the Russian asset in the WH.

Now hopefully they can sink that bastard bridge.

They will be destroyed now and won't exist in 5 years. As they didn't as an independent country, before 1991

And I wouldn't be too excited about the damage done. In war time truth goes out the window. So it may be accurate or maybe not.

[Guy Smiley]

Very well done - and they (rightly) kept it secret from the US to avoid compromise

Yep, well played by Ukraine. And they were far too smart to alert the Russian asset in the WH.

Now hopefully they can sink that bastard bridge.

They will be destroyed now and won't exist in 5 years. As they didn't as an independent country, before 1991

And I wouldn't be too excited about the damage done. In war time truth goes out the window. So it may be accurate or maybe not.

Russia has been trying to destroy Ukraine for over 3 years now and failed.

[mat the expat]

Very well done - and they (rightly) kept it secret from the US to avoid compromise

Yep, well played by Ukraine. And they were far too smart to alert the Russian asset in the WH.

Now hopefully they can sink that bastard bridge.

Re-engineered shipping containers hiding the drones within upper compartments and transported by local Russian trucking operators?

Fucking brilliant. The question for the Russians right now is, how many other shipping containers are parked up right now ready to deploy?

That is the 64 Million Ruble question!

Some Interior Ministry heads will be falling out of windows soon

[Flockwitt]

Billy Mykhailo vibes without the loss of crew

Very well done - and they (rightly) kept it secret from the US to avoid compromise

Those Bears are a big hit - they have the biggest capacity and range for launching Cruise missiles. With the latest missiles in theatre, the Russians won't risk their Blackjacks as they need to retain them for Nuclear Deterrent use

I take the point about the introduciton of new Western long range air to air missiles but the situation is not that bad for Russia. They've lost perhaps a third of their strategic bombers, but they only need half a dozen of these big planes for their air-launched cruise missiles to keep hammering Ukraine.

It's a palpable blow but not actually a game changer for now vs. Ukraine.

[Enzedder]

Yep, a bloody nose but not a headshot.

[Hellraiser]

Billy Mykhailo vibes without the loss of crew

Very well done - and they (rightly) kept it secret from the US to avoid compromise

Those Bears are a big hit - they have the biggest capacity and range for launching Cruise missiles. With the latest missiles in theatre, the Russians won't risk their Blackjacks as they need to retain them for Nuclear Deterrent use

I take the point about the introduciton of new Western long range air to air missiles but the situation is not that bad for Russia. They've lost perhaps a third of their strategic bombers, but they only need half a dozen of these big planes for their air-launched cruise missiles to keep hammering Ukraine.

It's a palpable blow but not actually a game changer for now vs. Ukraine.

It's a geopolitical strategic defeat for Russia. One prong of their nuclear triad has been crippled.

[mat the expat]

I take the point about the introduciton of new Western long range air to air missiles but the situation is not that bad for Russia. They've lost perhaps a third of their strategic bombers, but they only need half a dozen of these big planes for their air-launched cruise missiles to keep hammering Ukraine.

It's a palpable blow but not actually a game changer for now vs. Ukraine.

On the contrary it's massive - any large, legacy plane like the Bear consumes spares and man-hours at a ridiculous rate. They're already in a bad place for readiness before the raid

They won't be able to run as many missions in the future

The A-50 is a massive loss - they only have 3 left out of a fleet of 6. They can't build any at present

Psyop value is off the charts - they'll not know if there are more attacks waiting and they'll pretty much have to check every truck within 50km of an airbase

It's a massive coup - especially as they can't hide the raids from the public

[Hellraiser]

In total, according to satellite images + video confirmed hits, we have:

Belaya airbase:
4 Tu-95MS;
4 Tu-22M3;

Olenya airfield:
4 Tu-95MS;
1 An-12.

At the moment, 8 Tu-95, 4 Tu-22M3, 1 An-12 have been definitely hit = 13 aircraft.

Of these all bar one were destroyed.

[_Os_]

I think this attack has generally been reported/analysed quite poorly. The narrative is it's a one off spectacular attack.

The more correct way of looking at it is a progression of the style of attacks Ukraine has been launching since the start of the full scale invasion. The original deep strike was Ukrainian Hinds on Russian oil infrastructure, which has evolved into long range one way drones to attack the same facilities. There have been reports of Ukraine using short range drones on Russian airbases before to attack the same target (strategic bombers), but no evidence.

Russia has shown they're just really poor at coming up with counters to cheap Ukrainian long range drone attacks, which means Ukraine will keep using and improving the same tactics until they're stopped.

Looked at that way, it's definitely on the table that Russia lose all their strategic bombers.

[PornDog]

I take the point about the introduciton of new Western long range air to air missiles but the situation is not that bad for Russia. They've lost perhaps a third of their strategic bombers, but they only need half a dozen of these big planes for their air-launched cruise missiles to keep hammering Ukraine.

It's a palpable blow but not actually a game changer for now vs. Ukraine.

On the contrary it's massive - any large, legacy plane like the Bear consumes spares and man-hours at a ridiculous rate. They're already in a bad place for readiness before the raid

They won't be able to run as many missions in the future

The A-50 is a massive loss - they only have 3 left out of a fleet of 6. They can't build any at present

Psyop value is off the charts - they'll not know if there are more attacks waiting and they'll pretty much have to check every truck within 50km of an airbase

It's a massive coup - especially as they can't hide the raids from the public

They'll also have to move drone counter measures away from the front lines to protect strategic bases.

[Flockwitt]

I take the point about the introduciton of new Western long range air to air missiles but the situation is not that bad for Russia. They've lost perhaps a third of their strategic bombers, but they only need half a dozen of these big planes for their air-launched cruise missiles to keep hammering Ukraine.

It's a palpable blow but not actually a game changer for now vs. Ukraine.

On the contrary it's massive - any large, legacy plane like the Bear consumes spares and man-hours at a ridiculous rate. They're already in a bad place for readiness before the raid

They won't be able to run as many missions in the future

The A-50 is a massive loss - they only have 3 left out of a fleet of 6. They can't build any at present

Psyop value is off the charts - they'll not know if there are more attacks waiting and they'll pretty much have to check every truck within 50km of an airbase

It's a massive coup - especially as they can't hide the raids from the public

I'm well aware of all the points made. In many ways it's the perfect asymetric attack victory. Something in the past would have been run as a suicide mission was accomplished with expendible tech gear to cause billions in direct damage and long term harm to Russia's capabilities. However, a single plane can carry the level of munitions that are currently being used against Ukraine. When I said a half dozen I was giving Russia the spares needed to continue to run at an effective level. Russia is still going to be able to deliver missiles for the time being.

I'm not trying to denigrate a fantastic strike with all its collateral implications but we need to be realistic. For now this is not a war changer for Ukraine.

I'll add though it completely, ah, trumps Russia's efforts with their massive drone strikes in Ukraine over the weekend to put pressure on the peace talks.

[tabascoboy]

Russia has developed a new paranoia: trucks. Long queues are forming as authorities now inspect cargo vehicles thoroughly.

According to Russian sources, drivers of trucks allegedly used to launch Ukrainian drones toward military airfields have been interrogated. One claimed his truck carried prefab houses from Chelyabinsk to Murmansk. En route, unknown callers instructed him where and when to stop—at one such stop, drones reportedly launched.

[Flockwitt]

Flying under the radar a bit with the bomber strikes - Ukraine successfully blew up 3 key rail lines.

[fishfoodie]

I think this attack has generally been reported/analysed quite poorly. The narrative is it's a one off spectacular attack.

The more correct way of looking at it is a progression of the style of attacks Ukraine has been launching since the start of the full scale invasion. The original deep strike was Ukrainian Hinds on Russian oil infrastructure, which has evolved into long range one way drones to attack the same facilities. There have been reports of Ukraine using short range drones on Russian airbases before to attack the same target (strategic bombers), but no evidence.

Russia has shown they're just really poor at coming up with counters to cheap Ukrainian long range drone attacks, which means Ukraine will keep using and improving the same tactics until they're stopped.

Looked at that way, it's definitely on the table that Russia lose all their strategic bombers.

What do you mean ?

Stacking car tyres on the wings of bombers is the perfect defense !!

[Hellraiser]

I think this attack has generally been reported/analysed quite poorly. The narrative is it's a one off spectacular attack.

The more correct way of looking at it is a progression of the style of attacks Ukraine has been launching since the start of the full scale invasion. The original deep strike was Ukrainian Hinds on Russian oil infrastructure, which has evolved into long range one way drones to attack the same facilities. There have been reports of Ukraine using short range drones on Russian airbases before to attack the same target (strategic bombers), but no evidence.

Russia has shown they're just really poor at coming up with counters to cheap Ukrainian long range drone attacks, which means Ukraine will keep using and improving the same tactics until they're stopped.

Looked at that way, it's definitely on the table that Russia lose all their strategic bombers.

It's a one-off in the sense that the arctic trailer launch platform is probably exhausted as an attack vector, but the secondary damage it will do to the Russian haulage industry will last a long time. You are quite correct that this is simply a progression in method of attack. What is grinding my gears at the moment is the misinformed and/or Dunning-Kruger morons (I'm looking at you, Elon) heralding this as the end of manned aerial platforms.

[Flockwitt]

May artillery losses dipped a bit. Tanks and IFVs are dropping drastically off with plenty of implications. This will be worth to watch over the summer offensive.

Good resource this by the way with various filtering options depending on what you're looking for:
https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian- ... asualties/

[tabascoboy]

Any efforts Russia made to keep the news of the airfield attacks out of their domestic news seem to have been in vain