Home Office Child grooming Gangs Report release

[Insane_Homer]

DAC is going to be disappoint.

Key findings

Research has found that group-based CSE offenders are most commonly White

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... _Paper.pdf

[ScarfaceClaw]

This thread will end well...

[Slick]

Some studies have indicated an over-representation of Asian and Black offenders

I think everyone can pick something from there - this was in the foreword.

[Slick]

This thread will end well...

Quite. Just pointing out IH selective quoting from the outset and thats me done.

[tabascoboy]

People who perpetrate group-based CSE:
o are predominantly, but not exclusively, male;

Lock up all men now!

[Insane_Homer]

Some studies have indicated an over-representation of Asian and Black offenders

I think everyone can pick something from there - this was in the foreword.

Bingo

[Torquemada 1420]

DAC is going to be disappoint.

Key findings

Research has found that group-based CSE offenders are most commonly White

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... _Paper.pdf

Well, that should be no surprise given the relative proportions of ethnicities assuming that the measure is absolute. I would be more surprised if that were true on a relative basis.

Other complications include
- the Bradford case showed an almost conspiratorial effort on behalf of the authorities to ignore perpetrators based on race/religion
- and if that is true in wider scope, then the data used to arrive at this conclusion is going to be skewed i.e. as a result of non reporting

[Lobby]

DAC is going to be disappoint.

Key findings

Research has found that group-based CSE offenders are most commonly White

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... _Paper.pdf

Well, that should be no surprise given the relative proportions of ethnicities assuming that the measure is absolute. I would be more surprised if that were true on a relative basis.

Other complications include
- the Bradford case showed an almost conspiratorial effort on behalf of the authorities to ignore perpetrators based on race/religion
- and if that is true in wider scope, then the data used to arrive at this conclusion is going to be skewed i.e. as a result of non reporting

Some interesting analysis of the report:

While the Home Office authors concede there have been high-profile cases that ‘have mainly involved men of Pakistani ethnicity’ they add that ‘the academic literature highlights significant limitations to what can be said about links between ethnicity and this form of offending.’

‘Some studies suggest an over-representation of black and Asian offenders relative to the demographics of national populations. However, it is not possible to conclude that this is representative of all group-based CSE offending,’ they say.

They add that in fact: ‘Research has found that group-based child sexual exploitation (CSE) offenders are most commonly white.’

Note that linguistic sleight of hand – not ‘usually’ but ‘most commonly’. Digging into the report’s section on the ethnicity of offenders one learns that an official data collection exercise in 2011 involving police forces and other agencies found that of 2,300 possible offenders there was no basic information held about 1,100. Among the remaining 1,200, ethnicity data was not known for 38 per cent. Of the remaining suspects – approximately 750 by my arithmetic – ‘30 per cent of offenders were White, while 28 per cent were Asian’. This presumably is the finding used to justify ‘most commonly White’ – but which seems to miss the obvious point that the white population of England and Wales is around 80 per cent overall.

A second smaller study from 2013 mentioned in the report found that of 306 offenders looked at, 75 per cent were Asian, which actually amounts to a ten-fold over-representation, though the report does not point this out.

[JM2K6]

Or, alternatively, that's disingenuous bollocks from a man who wears his colours on his sleeve when it comes to immigrants. The actual report says this:

Beyond specific high-profile cases, the academic literature highlights significant
limitations to what can be said about links between ethnicity and this form of
offending. Research has found that group-based CSE offenders are most
commonly White. Some studies suggest an over-representation of Black and Asian
offenders relative to the demographics of national populations. However, it is not
possible to conclude that this is representative of all group-based CSE offending.
This is due to issues such as data quality problems, the way the samples were
selected in studies, and the potential for bias and inaccuracies in the way that
ethnicity data is collected. During our conversations with police forces, we have
found that in the operations reflected, offender groups come from diverse
backgrounds, with each group being broadly ethnically homogenous. However,
there are cases where offenders within groups come from different backgrounds.

It's not a lingusitic sleight of hand - they acknowledge and discuss it in the very next sentence and for the rest of the paragraph. Does The Spectator assume that people won't bother to read the report for themselves?

[I like neeps]

The Spectator's Deputy Editor was funnily enough at the weekend making a joke about an article Rod Liddle the police cautioned wife beater wrote saying he (Liddle) couldn't be a teacher as he'd want to shag the 14 year olds. So their view on mincing is a bit off as they've decided it's a jokey topic.

I won't read the report but it's clear there is a problem with Asian gangs working in the night-time economy and grooming kids. But to say it's not something white British men also do is just stupid.

[JM2K6]

The Spectator's Deputy Editor was funnily enough at the weekend making a joke about an article Rod Liddle the police cautioned wife beater wrote saying he (Liddle) couldn't be a teacher as he'd want to shag the 14 year olds. So their view on mincing is a bit off as they've decided it's a jokey topic.

Yeah, I've read Liddle's own quotes on it. Quite remarkable.

I won't read the report but it's clear there is a problem with Asian gangs working in the night-time economy and grooming kids. But to say it's not something white British men also do is just stupid.

Thing is, the report seems pretty even-handed about what it can and can't draw from the data, acknowledges where the data is lacking, and clearly cautions against the very behaviour that everyone immediately falls into.

[Torquemada 1420]

Or, alternatively, that's disingenuous bollocks from a man who wears his colours on his sleeve when it comes to immigrants. The actual report says this:

Beyond specific high-profile cases, the academic literature highlights significant
limitations to what can be said about links between ethnicity and this form of
offending. Research has found that group-based CSE offenders are most
commonly White. Some studies suggest an over-representation of Black and Asian
offenders relative to the demographics of national populations. However, it is not
possible to conclude that this is representative of all group-based CSE offending.
This is due to issues such as data quality problems, the way the samples were
selected in studies, and the potential for bias and inaccuracies in the way that
ethnicity data is collected. During our conversations with police forces, we have
found that in the operations reflected, offender groups come from diverse
backgrounds, with each group being broadly ethnically homogenous. However,
there are cases where offenders within groups come from different backgrounds.

It's not a lingusitic sleight of hand - they acknowledge and discuss it in the very next sentence and for the rest of the paragraph. Does The Spectator assume that people won't bother to read the report for themselves?

Whichever way it is, you have to conclude that if the report's aim was to dispel the belief that Asians are disproportionately involved in child grooming, the lack of scientific rigour entirely fails to justify that conclusion.

FWIW, I don't think this the key element of concern but my earlier point that authorities, en masse, made an election to ignore abuse of the worst kind in the name of avoiding upsetting cultural sensibilities. What I'd really like to hear is the proportion of resource dedicated to detection and prosecution across different ethnic backgrounds. For example
- we know the Met spent decades w*g (and queer) bashing
- whilst at the other extreme, AFAIK, there has never been a single prosecution (let alone a successful one) for FGM. And I can be confident that whatever basis of white you take, whites are going to be disproportionately low.

[Kawazaki]

Are Eastern Europeans classed as white?

[JM2K6]

Or, alternatively, that's disingenuous bollocks from a man who wears his colours on his sleeve when it comes to immigrants. The actual report says this:

Beyond specific high-profile cases, the academic literature highlights significant
limitations to what can be said about links between ethnicity and this form of
offending. Research has found that group-based CSE offenders are most
commonly White. Some studies suggest an over-representation of Black and Asian
offenders relative to the demographics of national populations. However, it is not
possible to conclude that this is representative of all group-based CSE offending.
This is due to issues such as data quality problems, the way the samples were
selected in studies, and the potential for bias and inaccuracies in the way that
ethnicity data is collected. During our conversations with police forces, we have
found that in the operations reflected, offender groups come from diverse
backgrounds, with each group being broadly ethnically homogenous. However,
there are cases where offenders within groups come from different backgrounds.

It's not a lingusitic sleight of hand - they acknowledge and discuss it in the very next sentence and for the rest of the paragraph. Does The Spectator assume that people won't bother to read the report for themselves?

Whichever way it is, you have to conclude that if the report's aim was to dispel the belief that Asians are disproportionately involved in child grooming, the lack of scientific rigour entirely fails to justify that conclusion.

Happily, reading it that doesn't seem to be the report's aim at all.

It's not so much about lack of scientific rigour - they're applying a decent amount, but part of statistical analysis is recognising when your data is shit and what you can and can't infer from it. Perhaps it will lead to better data collection in future.

[Bimbowomxn]

And the data for a particular type of crime is a bit shit. Phew.

[Hugo]

I've been kicking the tyres on this particular subject for a good few months now since learning that incidences of rape have trebled in the last decade. In fact most of that increase has occured in the last 5 years.

There is a depressingly low conviction rate for rape too, something like 1.5%. Couple that with the fact that it is an under reported crime for obvious reasons (victims are threatened with violence for speaking out, they know their attackers and want to protect them, victims are often drunk or drugged) and its clear we don't really have a grasp on the enormity of the problem.

The crazy thing is the sentencing. A man tried to abduct a couple of school girls in south Wales a few years back and got a pitifully small sentence. In sentencing the judge even described him as "other than this incident a family man" which was bonkers. After getting out he then relocated and reoffended, only this time he was successful. He abducted and raped a drunken girl in Middlesbrough.

IMO the powers that be (home office, police, courts & social services) are failing women every day.

[Hong Kong]

Regardless of race, ethnicity, nationality or whatever, I think we all can agree that grooming of kids is a despicable act and the perpetrators deserve a hefty kick in the balls, as well as significant jail time

[Ymx]

So is the report saying

30% White offenders
28% Asian
38% Unknown

And the report is saying the unknown is reason for not being able to draw conclusions? I’ve lifted this from above, or is this incorrect?

[Ymx]

https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.ser ... -wales/1.5

86% White, 7.5% Asian according to 2011 Census of England and Wales.

11-12 times as many white as Asian.

[Ymx]

So up to 68% of offenders could be white? Putting the unknown as white. If so, just over twice the numbers of Asian offenders.

With whites being 11-12 times the population.

So an Asian is at minimum 5 times more likely to be offender.

If that 38% was all Asian it’s more like 25 times. But it clearly can’t be this.

I’m sure my numbers must be wrong, as I’ve picked out most data from posts above (without reading links), and an old census.

[JM2K6]

Yeah, no, read the report. There's all kinds of problems with the data, not just "well this figure here is unknown". The numbers you do have aren't considered particularly accurate, with huge caveats.

If you read the report in full it's absolutely clear they're not trying to obfuscate anything. It's certainly something you can draw any number of unsupported conclusions from, mind.

[Torquemada 1420]

Happily, reading it that doesn't seem to be the report's aim at all.

It's not so much about lack of scientific rigour - they're applying a decent amount, but part of statistical analysis is recognising when your data is shit and what you can and can't infer from it. Perhaps it will lead to better data collection in future.

I doubt it. The lack of data is from the same cause as the lack of action i.e.
1) A fear of reporting by victims
2) Absence of positive intervention by the protection agencies


1) Is never changing because victims in fear are, well, partly victims because they can be put in a state of fear.
There is no evidence to suggest any change in enforcement policy by the powers that be.

[JM2K6]

Happily, reading it that doesn't seem to be the report's aim at all.

It's not so much about lack of scientific rigour - they're applying a decent amount, but part of statistical analysis is recognising when your data is shit and what you can and can't infer from it. Perhaps it will lead to better data collection in future.

I doubt it. The lack of data is from the same cause as the lack of action i.e.
1) A fear of reporting by victims
2) Absence of positive intervention by the protection agencies


1) Is never changing because victims in fear are, well, partly victims because they can be put in a state of fear.
There is no evidence to suggest any change in enforcement policy by the powers that be.

Read the report

[Yeeb]

Don’t think the ethnicity of the rapist matters too much to the victims tbh - they are all scum and I would give life sentences to anyone caught.

[Torquemada 1420]

Don’t think the ethnicity of the rapist matters too much to the victims tbh - they are all scum and I would give life sentences to anyone caught.

You miss the wider point. If I take FGM (because there is no doubt that it is practised almost exclusively by certain ethnic minorities), if public protection
is being influenced in a detrimental manner to victims due to policy driven by ethnic considerations, then we have a problem. I used the reverse example
earlier on the Met targeting blacks. It doesn't matter if it's relatively excessive or relatively ignoring, the result is the same i.e. unfair victimisation based on
race/colour. If a policy is bad/ineffective, it needs to be (as far as practicable and certainly not intentionally the reverse) neutral for all.

I'm really not interested in the race agenda** of XYZ non whites commit more of ABC crimes save where that is true and trying to understand why but in
a distorted application of justice.

**I think there are 2 debates going on here.

[Yeeb]

Don’t think the ethnicity of the rapist matters too much to the victims tbh - they are all scum and I would give life sentences to anyone caught.

You miss the wider point. If I take FGM (because there is no doubt that it is practised almost exclusively by certain ethnic minorities), if public protection
is being influenced in a detrimental manner to victims due to policy driven by ethnic considerations, then we have a problem. I used the reverse example
earlier on the Met targeting blacks. It doesn't matter if it's relatively excessive or relatively ignoring, the result is the same i.e. unfair victimisation based on
race/colour. If a policy is bad/ineffective, it needs to be (as far as practicable and certainly not intentionally the reverse) neutral for all.

I'm really not interested in the race agenda** of XYZ non whites commit more of ABC crimes save where that is true and trying to understand why but in
a distorted application of justice.

**I think there are 2 debates going on here.

You lost me there, hombre
Cops should just nick and stop anyone irrespective of colour, if more Rotherham rapes are by Asians, let them stop more Asians there, if more knife crime in London is operation Trident stuff, let them stop more blacks here, if garden gnomes in chipping sodbury get vandalised, let them stop honkey-bas.

I’d rather cops stopped more young people getting raped or stabbed to death, than worrying about whom it may offend or cry victimisation, but I suspect you knew that. Can you just imagine me as Met commissionaire ? I wouldn’t last 2 mins before calling a shovel a shovel and getting in trouble

[Openside]

Don’t think the ethnicity of the rapist matters too much to the victims tbh - they are all scum and I would give life sentences to anyone caught.

This, and deport any we can legally do so.

Judging by what has been said on here vis a vis the report (I haven't read it) it seems couched in so many unknowns, caveats and imprecise data you wonder what is was trying to achieve?

[JM2K6]

Don’t think the ethnicity of the rapist matters too much to the victims tbh - they are all scum and I would give life sentences to anyone caught.

This, and deport any we can legally do so.

Judging by what has been said on here vis a vis the report (I haven't read it) it seems couched in so many unknowns, caveats and imprecise data you wonder what is was trying to achieve?

It's supposed to be informational for police forces and associated groups. It does have some good information on how these groups work, what ties them together, the fact that they're often racially homogenous, etc etc, as well as pointing out where the data is weak and how that should change.

Why it was published to the wider public is beyond me, though I suspect there's pressure from all sides on this.

[Torquemada 1420]

You lost me there, hombre

I think there are 3 key threads in play here
1) Plain old whitey racism where stuff like the Bradford case helps reinforce bias regardless of the underlying facts/data.
2) Where the law fails v1 e.g. "institutional racism" or over intervention
3) Where the law fails v2 which is the tragic one: either well intended or motivated from fear of being accused of being in 1) or 2) resulting in crimes like FMG, child brides etc being ignored = under intervention

[Yeeb]

Don’t think the ethnicity of the rapist matters too much to the victims tbh - they are all scum and I would give life sentences to anyone caught.

This, and deport any we can legally do so.

Judging by what has been said on here vis a vis the report (I haven't read it) it seems couched in so many unknowns, caveats and imprecise data you wonder what is was trying to achieve?

I’d only deport after their sentence has been served and their country billed for their incarceration.
Very high percentage of those rapers would have british passports as well though so unless you intend to revoke those, it’s just pointless Farage bluster.

[Yeeb]

You lost me there, hombre

I think there are 3 key threads in play here
1) Plain old whitey racism where stuff like the Bradford case helps reinforce bias regardless of the underlying facts/data.
2) Where the law fails v1 e.g. "institutional racism" or over intervention
3) Where the law fails v2 which is the tragic one: either well intended or motivated from fear of being accused of being in 1) or 2) resulting in crimes like FMG, child brides etc being ignored = under intervention

How was whitey racist in 1? I thought it was those Asian gangs were specifically not target for investigation enough because the Asian community wasn’t to be offended or victimised ?
If it even stopped one rape, it would have been worthwhile causing any amount of noses to be put out of joint.

[Openside]

Don’t think the ethnicity of the rapist matters too much to the victims tbh - they are all scum and I would give life sentences to anyone caught.

This, and deport any we can legally do so.

Judging by what has been said on here vis a vis the report (I haven't read it) it seems couched in so many unknowns, caveats and imprecise data you wonder what is was trying to achieve?

I’d only deport after their sentence has been served and their country billed for their incarceration.
Very high percentage of those rapers would have british passports as well though so unless you intend to revoke those, it’s just pointless Farage bluster.

Did you miss the bit about able to legally??

[Yeeb]

This, and deport any we can legally do so.

Judging by what has been said on here vis a vis the report (I haven't read it) it seems couched in so many unknowns, caveats and imprecise data you wonder what is was trying to achieve?

I’d only deport after their sentence has been served and their country billed for their incarceration.
Very high percentage of those rapers would have british passports as well though so unless you intend to revoke those, it’s just pointless Farage bluster.

Did you miss the bit about able to legally??

So it’s a handful of people then and you are saying pointless Farage bluster - gotcha

[Openside]

I’d only deport after their sentence has been served and their country billed for their incarceration.
Very high percentage of those rapers would have british passports as well though so unless you intend to revoke those, it’s just pointless Farage bluster.

Did you miss the bit about able to legally??

So it’s a handful of people then and you are saying pointless Farage bluster - gotcha

Bizarre

[Torquemada 1420]

You lost me there, hombre

I think there are 3 key threads in play here
1) Plain old whitey racism where stuff like the Bradford case helps reinforce bias regardless of the underlying facts/data.
2) Where the law fails v1 e.g. "institutional racism" or over intervention
3) Where the law fails v2 which is the tragic one: either well intended or motivated from fear of being accused of being in 1) or 2) resulting in crimes like FMG, child brides etc being ignored = under intervention

How was whitey racist in 1? I thought it was those Asian gangs were specifically not target for investigation enough because the Asian community wasn’t to be offended or victimised ?
If it even stopped one rape, it would have been worthwhile causing any amount of noses to be put out of joint.

It's NOT in 1. Bradford is an example of what feeds 1.

[Ted.]

Regardless of race, ethnicity, nationality or whatever, I think we all can agree that grooming of kids is a despicable act and the perpetrators deserve a hefty kick in the balls, as well as significant jail time

Yeah, focusing on ethnicity seems to be massively missing, or avoiding, the point.

[Ted.]

Don’t think the ethnicity of the rapist matters too much to the victims tbh - they are all scum and I would give life sentences to anyone caught.

Crikey Yeeb, that a bit off. Not all victims are scum.