The Scottish Politics Thread

[tc27]

Interesting post:



Of course running a list only party could well be seen as gaming the system by the EC...

[Biffer]

Of course, if he digs into the SNP second vote in Central Scotland, Glasgow, Lothian, Mid Scotland & Fife and West Scotland, where the SNP didn't get any list seats despite getting 100,000+ list votes in each region, then he might end up adding 10 seats to the Indy vote, and end up with a parliament which has 90 pro independence MSPs.

[tc27]

Of course, if he digs into the SNP second vote in Central Scotland, Glasgow, Lothian, Mid Scotland & Fife and West Scotland, where the SNP didn't get any list seats despite getting 100,000+ list votes in each region, then he might end up adding 10 seats to the Indy vote, and end up with a parliament which has 90 pro independence MSPs.

Yes I think that's entirely possible.

Of course achieving such a majority by gaming the ANS voting system is not likely to increase the chances of the government changing its mind on a S30...infact sitting back and letting the movement devour itself would be the smart move...just my view.

[Tichtheid]

Of course, if he digs into the SNP second vote in Central Scotland, Glasgow, Lothian, Mid Scotland & Fife and West Scotland, where the SNP didn't get any list seats despite getting 100,000+ list votes in each region, then he might end up adding 10 seats to the Indy vote, and end up with a parliament which has 90 pro independence MSPs.

That last part is pretty much is what he said is his goal in the press release earlier, that what he calls “wasted” second votes will be scooped up to create a super majority of pro Indy MPs

[Biffer]

The SNP received more list votes than any other party in every region in Scotland in 2016. And 2011. And 2007. And everywhere apart from South Scotland in 2003.

[Slick]

Of course, if he digs into the SNP second vote in Central Scotland, Glasgow, Lothian, Mid Scotland & Fife and West Scotland, where the SNP didn't get any list seats despite getting 100,000+ list votes in each region, then he might end up adding 10 seats to the Indy vote, and end up with a parliament which has 90 pro independence MSPs.

That last part is pretty much is what he said is his goal in the press release earlier, that what he calls “wasted” second votes will be scooped up to create a super majority of pro Indy MPs

You'd think that would be quite easy to bat away from Westminster, ie it's just the same people voting twice.

Whatever, it is not good for Scotland or Scottish politics.

[Tichtheid]

Of course, if he digs into the SNP second vote in Central Scotland, Glasgow, Lothian, Mid Scotland & Fife and West Scotland, where the SNP didn't get any list seats despite getting 100,000+ list votes in each region, then he might end up adding 10 seats to the Indy vote, and end up with a parliament which has 90 pro independence MSPs.

That last part is pretty much is what he said is his goal in the press release earlier, that what he calls “wasted” second votes will be scooped up to create a super majority of pro Indy MPs

You'd think that would be quite easy to bat away from Westminster, ie it's just the same people voting twice.

Whatever, it is not good for Scotland or Scottish politics.

Or, it could be argued that it’s a better representation of the will of the voters where the SNP didn’t pick up many list seats, despite the votes for them

[Biffer]

That last part is pretty much is what he said is his goal in the press release earlier, that what he calls “wasted” second votes will be scooped up to create a super majority of pro Indy MPs

You'd think that would be quite easy to bat away from Westminster, ie it's just the same people voting twice.

Whatever, it is not good for Scotland or Scottish politics.

Or, it could be argued that it’s a better representation of the will of the voters where the SNP didn’t pick up many list seats, despite the votes for them

I don't think that's a good argument. But it could be said it's no worse than the representation at Westminster where 42% of the vote gets you 58% of the seats.

[KingBlairhorn]

I wonder if this might actually be a good thing for the parliament's ability to properly function on most topics (with the exclusion of the independence question). I think Salmond is a *REDACTED FOR LEGAL REASONS*, however he certainly will hold the SNP to account on all non-independence related topics. At the moment the debate on any subject is simplified to "if the Tories say it, it must be wrong", whereas I think most here agree from there is much that could be improved in Scotland across multiple policy areas.

On the independence question this isn't so good. I expect the chamber to largely become an echo-chamber, with any credible questions on the topic shut-down from debate.

[tc27]

There a reasonable case for the Electoral Commission to step and stop a party only standing for list seats - it does break the way ANS is supposed to work.

[Tichtheid]

There a reasonable case for the Electoral Commission to step and stop a party only standing for list seats - it does break the way ANS is supposed to work.

I haven’t had time to look yet, is there something in the legislation that states a party must stand in both constituencies and regional lists?
If so, are they limited to, say, one list candidate per constituency candidate?

[tc27]

No I don't think so but I think the EC has fairly wide ranging powers.

Will be interesting to see if Cherry jumps ship? The SNP leadership changed the rules to keep her out of HR so I imagine she's tempted.

[Biffer]

There a reasonable case for the Electoral Commission to step and stop a party only standing for list seats - it does break the way ANS is supposed to work.

Given that I could probably name five or six parties who've already done it, and got seats that way, stepping in now would be perceived as a huge bias by the electoral commission.

[Biffer]

There a reasonable case for the Electoral Commission to step and stop a party only standing for list seats - it does break the way ANS is supposed to work.

I haven’t had time to look yet, is there something in the legislation that states a party must stand in both constituencies and regional lists?
If so, are they limited to, say, one list candidate per constituency candidate?

No.

[Slick]

As I say, disastrous for Scotland

[Tichtheid]

As I say, disastrous for Scotland

Why is it a disaster for Scotland?

[Slick]

As I say, disastrous for Scotland

Why is it a disaster for Scotland?

Not tonight mate

[Tichtheid]

As I say, disastrous for Scotland

Why is it a disaster for Scotland?

Not tonight mate

Monday, then?

Tonight is a good night, it was almost a very good night

[Caley_Red]

I see Kenny McCaskill has defected to Salmond'd new outfit, have to say, didn't realise he was still an MP or MSP. It'll be interesting to see if this is part of a wider cleave in ideology. .

[Biffer]

I see Kenny McCaskill has defected to Salmond'd new outfit, have to say, didn't realise he was still an MP or MSP. It'll be interesting to see if this is part of a wider cleave in ideology. .

SNP sources quoted as saying its a bit of a relief he's gone

[Tichtheid]

If nothing else this should teach people to pronounce Alba properly.

[Caley_Red]

I see Kenny McCaskill has defected to Salmond'd new outfit, have to say, didn't realise he was still an MP or MSP. It'll be interesting to see if this is part of a wider cleave in ideology. .

SNP sources quoted as saying its a bit of a relief he's gone

Not sure if it's still the case but I understand that he used tio be a bit of a drunk

[Biffer]

If nothing else this should teach people to pronounce Alba properly.

Andrew Marr was thoroughly murdering it on TV this morning, which kinda sums up one of the problems with upper middle class lowland Scots.

[Biffer]

The more I think about this, the more I think about there being a part of the SNP and Indy movement which is right of centre, when you remember the way their seats used to be in farming and rural communities. They are voters who would never vote for the greens with their focus on trans /gay/queer issues, refugees, higher taxes etc. The move of the SNP to the left (which was necessary to eat into central belt seats) has left some long time SNP voters a bit alienated within their own movement. A right of centre nationalist party might also throw a few traditional Scottish Tories, who were always more old style conservative rather than what the party has become in the last ten year, and make them consider changing their allegiance.

[tc27]

Nothing center right about Alba though - its Salmond's revenge vehicle onto which various oddballs and cranks will hitch their wagon.

[Slick]

If nothing else this should teach people to pronounce Alba properly.

Andrew Marr was thoroughly murdering it on TV this morning, which kinda sums up one of the problems with upper middle class lowland Scots.

How is it pronounced then?

[Biffer]

If nothing else this should teach people to pronounce Alba properly.

Andrew Marr was thoroughly murdering it on TV this morning, which kinda sums up one of the problems with upper middle class lowland Scots.

How is it pronounced then?

Marr was basically giving it three syllables and saying Ull-ah-ba. I’ve always understood it to be one of these awkward words that has an almost half syllable in the middle. It’s a dark, closed Ah sound, and a long double ll that almost forms the plosive ending l that you have where l is followed by a vowel as in last, but I always understood it to be that your mouth shape leads towards that, but doesn’t actually ‘plode’ as it were so the b sound becomes then ending of the l replacing the plosive.

[Big D]

I see Kenny McCaskill has defected to Salmond'd new outfit, have to say, didn't realise he was still an MP or MSP. It'll be interesting to see if this is part of a wider cleave in ideology. .

SNP sources quoted as saying its a bit of a relief he's gone

It probably is but then they are hardly going to say how sad they are he's going are they?

My local MP has left the SNP too. There really should be a by election as even he should know people are voting SNP rather than him. Yes I'm aware that isn't how it works but it should.

[KingBlairhorn]

I see Kenny McCaskill has defected to Salmond'd new outfit, have to say, didn't realise he was still an MP or MSP. It'll be interesting to see if this is part of a wider cleave in ideology. .

SNP sources quoted as saying its a bit of a relief he's gone

I've never met Kenny but I know his brother quite well. He's a bit of an oddball to be honest, although a very talented and fairly affable one. If Kenny is like his brother it's no surprise if some don't like him.

[clydecloggie]

Wings over Scotland toyed with the idea of setting up a list-only party last year and did some good analysis on what it could mean for seats at Holyrood. I know, it's WoS, but when he temporarily sheds his faux Scottish-hard-man-from-Bath image, his analysis is very good on this sort of thing. The hybrid voting system can be 'gamed' in this way as not having any votes in the constituency vote gives a massive advantage on the list vote.

As much as I think Salmond is a dick, I kind of like it that there might very well be three pro-independence parties at Holyrood representing a fair chunk of the political spectrum: the Greens on the left, SNP in the middle, and Alba somewhat to the right of that, especially in terms of their social conservatism. Because whatever my personal politics might be, an independent country needs viable parties across the political spectrum for voters to feel they have a say in what happens to their country (it's the nr 1 reason why the UK's political system is broken, imo - not enough votes matter).

[Tichtheid]

Wings over Scotland toyed with the idea of setting up a list-only party last year and did some good analysis on what it could mean for seats at Holyrood. I know, it's WoS, but when he temporarily sheds his faux Scottish-hard-man-from-Bath image, his analysis is very good on this sort of thing. The hybrid voting system can be 'gamed' in this way as not having any votes in the constituency vote gives a massive advantage on the list vote.

As much as I think Salmond is a dick, I kind of like it that there might very well be three pro-independence parties at Holyrood representing a fair chunk of the political spectrum: the Greens on the left, SNP in the middle, and Alba somewhat to the right of that, especially in terms of their social conservatism. Because whatever my personal politics might be, an independent country needs viable parties across the political spectrum for voters to feel they have a say in what happens to their country (it's the nr 1 reason why the UK's political system is broken, imo - not enough votes matter).

Good points.

re the voting system, I live in the one Green UK parliamentary constituency, the Tories got 365 times as many seats with only 16.7 times as many votes

[tc27]

Hard to describe Alba as 'somewhat to the right' surely? Aside from I suppose a socially conservative position on gender ID its currently a single issue party.

I think the more significant difference is that if Alba gains ground it will become the formalised alternative to the SNP for those who think its not radical enough in pursuing independence (or those who simply have being pissed off by the Murrels)

[Slick]

Why is it a disaster for Scotland?

Not tonight mate

Monday, then?

Tonight is a good night, it was almost a very good night

Well I think it's bad that the system that is meant to be in place to stop a majority is being gamed to potentially give a parliament that doesn't reflect the views of Scottish people.

It also turns this election into a one issue game again. Now should be the time for the SNP to be held to account for it's failures and a chance for them to explain their policy going forward on a whole range of issues. But it won't be, it will be constant bickering which will give them the oppotuntity to dodge the difficult questions. If you care about more than one issue in Scotland it's a disaster.

[SaintK]

Hard to describe Alba as 'somewhat to the right' surely? Aside from I suppose a socially conservative position on gender ID its currently a single issue party.

I think the more significant difference is that if Alba gains ground it will become the formalised alternative to the SNP for those who think its not radical enough in pursuing independence (or those who simply have being pissed off by the Murrels)

Where or who are they getting their funding from?

[tc27]

Hard to describe Alba as 'somewhat to the right' surely? Aside from I suppose a socially conservative position on gender ID its currently a single issue party.

I think the more significant difference is that if Alba gains ground it will become the formalised alternative to the SNP for those who think its not radical enough in pursuing independence (or those who simply have being pissed off by the Murrels)

Where or who are they getting their funding from?

That's a good question - Salmond raised over 100k for his legal challenge in a very quick amount of time so crowdfunding is one source - possibly private backers. MP's who have defected to the party also make it legible for short money.

[Tichtheid]

Not tonight mate

Monday, then?

Tonight is a good night, it was almost a very good night

Well I think it's bad that the system that is meant to be in place to stop a majority is being gamed to potentially give a parliament that doesn't reflect the views of Scottish people.

It also turns this election into a one issue game again. Now should be the time for the SNP to be held to account for it's failures and a chance for them to explain their policy going forward on a whole range of issues. But it won't be, it will be constant bickering which will give them the oppotuntity to dodge the difficult questions. If you care about more than one issue in Scotland it's a disaster.

All for Unity are doing the same thing as Alba - they are advocating voting Lab/Con/Lib in the constituencies where they are in with the best chance, and voting for AFU in the list.

I accept that Galloway is a divisive character, but is he any more divisive than Salmond?

You're right that the election is becoming about this one issue, those in favour would probably argue that everything else flows from being responsible for one's own future, those against will bring out the well-worn arguments.

I can see there being lots of heat, very little light in the upcoming weeks.

[SaintK]

Hard to describe Alba as 'somewhat to the right' surely? Aside from I suppose a socially conservative position on gender ID its currently a single issue party.

I think the more significant difference is that if Alba gains ground it will become the formalised alternative to the SNP for those who think its not radical enough in pursuing independence (or those who simply have being pissed off by the Murrels)

Where or who are they getting their funding from?

That's a good question - Salmond raised over 100k for his legal challenge in a very quick amount of time so crowdfunding is one source - possibly private backers. MP's who have defected to the party also make it legible for short money.

So no Aaron Banks like figure in the background pumping money in as there was for Farage?

[clydecloggie]

Hard to describe Alba as 'somewhat to the right' surely? Aside from I suppose a socially conservative position on gender ID its currently a single issue party.

I think the more significant difference is that if Alba gains ground it will become the formalised alternative to the SNP for those who think its not radical enough in pursuing independence (or those who simply have being pissed off by the Murrels)

Based on Salmond's track record in the SNP he is definitely more right-wing than current Sturgeon-led SNP. Still sort of a middle-ground liberal, but less socio-culturally progressive? Someone who would appeal to the Scottish voter with a distaste for Tories but who sees no need to hand out free laptops to kids. Who will have voted SNP because of independence / brexit etc and may now see a pro-independence party more naturally aligned to their own politics.

[tc27]

So an err interesting SNP PPB last night.

Think Labours campaign has being excellent so far but no reward in polls yet - the Conservatives really doubling down on getting the rangers vote out


I think Salmond will almost certainty win a seat and if he gets enough fellow Alba MSPs in with him he will hold the balance of power in Holyrood. Also think gaming AMS to get a 75% of MEPs standing for pro independence parties on around 50% of the vote will not have to moral force some people think it will.

[Dogbert]

So an err interesting SNP PPB last night.

Think Labours campaign has being excellent so far but no reward in polls yet - the Conservatives really doubling down on getting the rangers vote out


I think Salmond will almost certainty win a seat and if he gets enough fellow Alba MSPs in with him he will hold the balance of power in Holyrood. Also think gaming AMS to get a 75% of MEPs standing for pro independence parties on around 50% of the vote will not have to moral force some people think it will.

Not even close , the latest polling has the SNP gaining 65 seats on the constituency vote alone , which would give them a working majority , albeit a slim one , on top of that Greens also seem to be doing well - with a projected 10 regional votes - if that works out to be the case , then ALBA become irrelevant, although somewhat of an irritant to the SNP
( If this is accurate , it does rather fly in the face of a lot of the commentary up in Scotland that the ALBA party would be extremely detrimental to the Greens

Looking at the SNP/ ALBA share in the Regional voting - on the latest Poll SNP Lose 3 - Alba gain 6 - so only an increase of 3 seats , or 2% of seats increase to the pro - independence vote - so the 'gaming 'of the system is in fact very small - The increase in the Green vote is more significant as they look to increase their number of seats from 6 - 10

Also the total number of Pro independence Seats would only be 64% , nowhere near your 75%