COVID-19 in SOUTH AFRICA

[Lemoentjie]

Is "Look, we're not quite as bad as Nigeria" going to be the ANC's next election slogan?

[Sandstorm]

Is "Look, we're not quite as bad as Nigeria" going to be the ANC's next election slogan?

“Is that a loaf of white bread under your arm? Vote ANC”

[assfly]

Heard an interesting report on 702 today.

They are collecting samples of waste from certain areas and checking for Covid, and based on the results that can tell which areas are high in numbers without necessarily testing people. Then they're able to direct resources to that area.

Seems like an ingenious way of monitoring the situation.

[Rinkals]

Heard an interesting report on 702 today.

They are collecting samples of waste from certain areas and checking for Covid, and based on the results that can tell which areas are high in numbers without necessarily testing people. Then they're able to direct resources to that area.

Seems like an ingenious way of monitoring the situation.

That was being discussed over a year ago, but I'm not sure the results are terribly useful with your high-density areas predictably being positive and your more affluent suburbs tending to have less prevalence.

Obviously, focussing on the contrasting demographics is politically sensitive.

[handyman]

Heard an interesting report on 702 today.

They are collecting samples of waste from certain areas and checking for Covid, and based on the results that can tell which areas are high in numbers without necessarily testing people. Then they're able to direct resources to that area.

Seems like an ingenious way of monitoring the situation.

Shitty job for the medico's doing the testing tho.

[assfly]

That was being discussed over a year ago, but I'm not sure the results are terribly useful with your high-density areas predictably being positive and your more affluent suburbs tending to have less prevalence.

Obviously, focussing on the contrasting demographics is politically sensitive.

Being able to know where to concentrate testing and tracing must be incredibly useful. Especially now with numbers going down, allowing teams to focus on hotspot areas.

[OomStruisbaai]

Is "Look, we're not quite as bad as Nigeria" going to be the ANC's next election slogan?

You have no idea.

[OomStruisbaai]

That was being discussed over a year ago, but I'm not sure the results are terribly useful with your high-density areas predictably being positive and your more affluent suburbs tending to have less prevalence.

Obviously, focussing on the contrasting demographics is politically sensitive.

Being able to know where to concentrate testing and tracing must be incredibly useful. Especially now with numbers going down, allowing teams to focus on hotspot areas.

Its a waiste of time to krap ou kak oop. Those dying will show where the vokop areas are. This can change in a few days.

[assfly]

Its a waiste of time to krap ou kak oop.

never change, Oom

[Lemoentjie]

Is "Look, we're not quite as bad as Nigeria" going to be the ANC's next election slogan?

You have no idea.

I was making a joke. I've been to Nigeria

[assfly]

The President of Tanzania is currently in Nairobi Hospital with breathing difficulties. One of several Tanzanian politicians in Kenyan hospitals.

The same cunt who claimed Covid doesn't exist in Tanzania and says the illness can be cured through prayer. Nobody knows how many people have died in Tz because of his position.

Every cloud has a silver lining.

[Blake]

The President of Tanzania is currently in Nairobi Hospital with breathing difficulties. One of several Tanzanian politicians in Kenyan hospitals.

The same cunt who claimed Covid doesn't exist in Tanzania and says the illness can be cured through prayer. Nobody knows how many people have died in Tz because of his position.

Every cloud has a silver lining.

Has any head of state died from Covid yet? I can't recall seeing reports of any.

I know a couple have contracted it, Trump, Bolsonaro, Macron...and I'm sure a couple of others, but no deaths yet, right?

SA has had a couple of high profile Covid deaths thus far. I'm not following international news as much, but I think ours might be disproportionately high.

[assfly]

Has any head of state died from Covid yet? I can't recall seeing reports of any.

I know a couple have contracted it, Trump, Bolsonaro, Macron...and I'm sure a couple of others, but no deaths yet, right?

SA has had a couple of high profile Covid deaths thus far. I'm not following international news as much, but I think ours might be disproportionately high.

The only one I can think of is the president of Burundi Nkurunziza, but technically he resigned a few weeks before.

[OomStruisbaai]

Welcome winter rains started today. Lets hold tumbs the winter wont make a 3rd spike. This will kill our sport.

[Blake]

Welcome winter rains started today. Lets hold tumbs the winter wont make a 3rd spike. This will kill our sport.

Ja, I'm not very optimistic and I really hope I'm wrong.

The vaccine rollout has been so painfully slow, I can't see us having decent (30-40%) coverage by June when we initially had our first wave in 2020 despite having been in Level 4 and 5 lockdowns in April and May.
At the moment we are only tracking at 120k vaccines administered maxing out at around 11k per day on our best day. It's not nearly enough to get ahead of this thing.

Positivity rate has dropped nicely to below 5%. Tracking at 4.2% for our 7-day average which is very encouraging, but as soon as that starts ticking up again alarm bells should start ringing.
Estimated R(t) currently at 0.78 which is also encouraging.

[handyman]

Welcome winter rains started today. Lets hold tumbs the winter wont make a 3rd spike. This will kill our sport.

Ja, I'm not very optimistic and I really hope I'm wrong.

The vaccine rollout has been so painfully slow, I can't see us having decent (30-40%) coverage by June when we initially had our first wave in 2020 despite having been in Level 4 and 5 lockdowns in April and May.
At the moment we are only tracking at 120k vaccines administered maxing out at around 11k per day on our best day. It's not nearly enough to get ahead of this thing.

Positivity rate has dropped nicely to below 5%. Tracking at 4.2% for our 7-day average which is very encouraging, but as soon as that starts ticking up again alarm bells should start ringing.
Estimated R(t) currently at 0.78 which is also encouraging.

That is if we can believe the numbers that we see in the press. I have serious doubts about it.

[Green light echo]

Welcome winter rains started today. Lets hold tumbs the winter wont make a 3rd spike. This will kill our sport.

Perhaps you should have played in the Rugby Championship then. As well as the Proteas should have accepted Austraian crickets very kind offer to host the Test series in OZ.

But no. In your infinite wisdom you declined the two opportunities. Now with the Lions tour looking very dicey and a third winter wave imminent youre sports are increasingly looking like you are entering shit creek without a paddle.

But hey you boys obviously know best.........

[assfly]

Yea Oom, why did you personally decline those opportunities?

[handyman]

Welcome winter rains started today. Lets hold tumbs the winter wont make a 3rd spike. This will kill our sport.

Perhaps you should have played in the Rugby Championship then. As well as the Proteas should have accepted Austraian crickets very kind offer to host the Test series in OZ.

But no. In your infinite wisdom you declined the two opportunities. Now with the Lions tour looking very dicey and a third winter wave imminent youre sports are increasingly looking like you are entering shit creek without a paddle.

But hey you boys obviously know best.........

Keep on keeping on!

[Blake]

Welcome winter rains started today. Lets hold tumbs the winter wont make a 3rd spike. This will kill our sport.

Ja, I'm not very optimistic and I really hope I'm wrong.

The vaccine rollout has been so painfully slow, I can't see us having decent (30-40%) coverage by June when we initially had our first wave in 2020 despite having been in Level 4 and 5 lockdowns in April and May.
At the moment we are only tracking at 120k vaccines administered maxing out at around 11k per day on our best day. It's not nearly enough to get ahead of this thing.

Positivity rate has dropped nicely to below 5%. Tracking at 4.2% for our 7-day average which is very encouraging, but as soon as that starts ticking up again alarm bells should start ringing.
Estimated R(t) currently at 0.78 which is also encouraging.

That is if we can believe the numbers that we see in the press. I have serious doubts about it.

I'm not following the press at all. This Dashboard has been a pretty handy resource for SA-centric Covid data:

https://mediahack.co.za/datastories/cor ... dashboard/

[Blake]

Yea Oom, why did you personally decline those opportunities?

YES! We demand answers!

[handyman]

Ja, I'm not very optimistic and I really hope I'm wrong.

The vaccine rollout has been so painfully slow, I can't see us having decent (30-40%) coverage by June when we initially had our first wave in 2020 despite having been in Level 4 and 5 lockdowns in April and May.
At the moment we are only tracking at 120k vaccines administered maxing out at around 11k per day on our best day. It's not nearly enough to get ahead of this thing.

Positivity rate has dropped nicely to below 5%. Tracking at 4.2% for our 7-day average which is very encouraging, but as soon as that starts ticking up again alarm bells should start ringing.
Estimated R(t) currently at 0.78 which is also encouraging.

That is if we can believe the numbers that we see in the press. I have serious doubts about it.

I'm not following the press at all. This Dashboard has been a pretty handy resource for SA-centric Covid data:

https://mediahack.co.za/datastories/cor ... dashboard/

Numbers coming from our DOH. Sorry, but I don't have much faith in it tbh.

[Sards]

Yea Oom, why did you personally decline those opportunities?

Seriously.... i would kill for a match against the Kiwi teams right now....

Griquas
Pumas
Cheetahs
Stormers


Vok me...thats like school boy rugby

[Green light echo]

Wait. You don't have faith in the SA DOH. Well i for one am shocked gentlemen utterly shocked.

Chin up boets I am sure there are wonderful immigration opportunities in the great nation of Nigeria.

There I'm sure you can all dominate to your hearts content.

Enjoy and God speed........

[handyman]

Yea Oom, why did you personally decline those opportunities?

Seriously.... i would kill for a match against the Kiwi teams right now....

Griquas
Pumas
Cheetahs
Stormers


Vok me...thats like school boy rugby

Hey man, take a break from rugby, cook an egg in your microwave and come back refreshed.

[handyman]

Wait. You don't have faith in the SA DOH. Well i for one am shocked gentlemen utterly shocked.

Chin up boets I am sure there are wonderful immigration opportunities in the great nation of Nigeria.

There I'm sure you can all dominate to your hearts content.

Enjoy and God speed........

How did our sh1thouse country manage to outperform yours by such a margin in RWC 2019?

[Green light echo]

Wait. You don't have faith in the SA DOH. Well i for one am shocked gentlemen utterly shocked.

Chin up boets I am sure there are wonderful immigration opportunities in the great nation of Nigeria.

There I'm sure you can all dominate to your hearts content.

Enjoy and God speed........

How did our sh1thouse country manage to outperform yours by such a margin in RWC 2019?

Luck.

Lucky to beat Japan. Lucky that France lost to Wales. However you can keep that. Would rather have a lucky Country than a rugby team. And you boets certainly do not have a lucky Country.

More like FORSAKEN dont you think?

Anyway meanwhile in the true LUCKY country I am just off for a few sundowners and a steak.

Enjoy your 2019 highlights. It's now 2021 and you haven't played since RWC, doubt you will play this year either.

But the memories are golden arent they boets?

Well they better be

[handyman]

Wait. You don't have faith in the SA DOH. Well i for one am shocked gentlemen utterly shocked.

Chin up boets I am sure there are wonderful immigration opportunities in the great nation of Nigeria.

There I'm sure you can all dominate to your hearts content.

Enjoy and God speed........

How did our sh1thouse country manage to outperform yours by such a margin in RWC 2019?

Luck.

Lucky to beat Japan. Lucky that France lost to Wales. However you can keep that. Would rather have a lucky Country than a rugby team. And you boets certainly do not have a lucky Country.

More like FORSAKEN dont you think?

Anyway meanwhile in the true LUCKY country I am just off for a few sundowners and a steak.

Enjoy your 2019 highlights. It's now 2021 and you haven't played since RWC, doubt you will play this year either.

But the memories are golden arent they boets?

Well they better be

Enjoy the gas bbq.

[Green light echo]

How did our sh1thouse country manage to outperform yours by such a margin in RWC 2019?

Luck.

Lucky to beat Japan. Lucky that France lost to Wales. However you can keep that. Would rather have a lucky Country than a rugby team. And you boets certainly do not have a lucky Country.

More like FORSAKEN dont you think?

Anyway meanwhile in the true LUCKY country I am just off for a few sundowners and a steak.

Enjoy your 2019 highlights. It's now 2021 and you haven't played since RWC, doubt you will play this year either.

But the memories are golden arent they boets?

Well they better be

Enjoy the gas bbq.

Gas bbq. How dare you.

You boets haven't heard of the Oz big pig smoker have you.

No didn't think so.......

[Blake]

Numbers coming from our DOH. Sorry, but I don't have much faith in it tbh.

In my experience, people that express these types of attitudes a generally don't have a lot of experience with big data or how data sets from multiple sources are consolidated.
You are well within your rights to distrust the data, but I would rather have flawed data than fly blind with zero data. There are inherent flaws in all datasets and it is a frustrating recent phenomenon that people distrust and entire dataset because of one or more known flaws. See the recent US election.

In general our pandemic data gathering, cleansing and reporting has been world class.

The big issues have been twofold:
1. Limited testing which has skewed our infection rates lower (a problem not unique to us)
2. Deaths. A follow up from #2 not having enough spare test kits to test all natural deaths for the last year to definitively prove how many of the excess deaths for 2020-2021 have been Covid related. This is also not unique to us.

For both these primary data sets, there are secondary proxy datasets to infer what they could have been: Hospitalizations and Excess Deaths.
Very clever actuaries and statisticians use statistical methods and models infer these data points to a detailed enough level that they are as accurate as they can get.

So yeah, while I share your sentiment that number of infections and number of deaths are likely under-reported in absolute terms, what is important is looking at and monitoring trends. Over time the patterns will (to some extent) compensate for the underlying inaccuracy of the absolute numbers to provide valuable insights for decision making.

[handyman]

Luck.

Lucky to beat Japan. Lucky that France lost to Wales. However you can keep that. Would rather have a lucky Country than a rugby team. And you boets certainly do not have a lucky Country.

More like FORSAKEN dont you think?

Anyway meanwhile in the true LUCKY country I am just off for a few sundowners and a steak.

Enjoy your 2019 highlights. It's now 2021 and you haven't played since RWC, doubt you will play this year either.

But the memories are golden arent they boets?

Well they better be

Enjoy the gas bbq.

Gas bbq. How dare you.

You boets haven't heard of the Oz big pig smoker have you.

No didn't think so.......

I guess it's ok for a bbq. It sure as hell is not a braai tho.

[handyman]

Numbers coming from our DOH. Sorry, but I don't have much faith in it tbh.

In my experience, people that express these types of attitudes a generally don't have a lot of experience with big data or how data sets from multiple sources are consolidated.
You are well within your rights to distrust the data, but I would rather have flawed data than fly blind with zero data. There are inherent flaws in all datasets and it is a frustrating recent phenomenon that people distrust and entire dataset because of one or more known flaws. See the recent US election.

In general our pandemic data gathering, cleansing and reporting has been world class.

The big issues have been twofold:
1. Limited testing which has skewed our infection rates lower (a problem not unique to us)
2. Deaths. A follow up from #2 not having enough spare test kits to test all natural deaths for the last year to definitively prove how many of the excess deaths for 2020-2021 have been Covid related. This is also not unique to us.

For both these primary data sets, there are secondary proxy datasets to infer what they could have been: Hospitalizations and Excess Deaths.
Very clever actuaries and statisticians use statistical methods and models infer these data points to a detailed enough level that they are as accurate as they can get.

So yeah, while I share your sentiment that number of infections and number of deaths are likely under-reported in absolute terms, what is important is looking at and monitoring trends. Over time the patterns will (to some extent) compensate for the underlying inaccuracy of the absolute numbers to provide valuable insights for decision making.

All good points, but I know people in the medical industry that have told me about major errors, confusion and incompetence in areas where it should have been fairly simple. Scale that up to include the whole South Africa and I stand by my opinion.

For broad decision making purposes, I guess it has it's value.

[FalseBayFC]

Accurately tracking infections and deaths was never going to be possible in SA. The primary objective imo was to prevent our health system being completely overwhelmed. Pointless to compare ourselves on any worldometer. Press on with vaccination and continue with prudent containment measures is now key. But we also need to remove any obstacles to our economic recovery. That is causing more suffering than the illness itself - the economic collapse that is.

[Blake]

Accurately tracking infections and deaths was never going to be possible in SA. The primary objective imo was to prevent our health system being completely overwhelmed. Pointless to compare ourselves on any worldometer. Press on with vaccination and continue with prudent containment measures is now key. But we also need to remove any obstacles to our economic recovery. That is causing more suffering than the illness itself - the economic collapse that is.

100% agree.

My point is that us as individuals should be data literate and vigilant so that we can spot the trends early enough so that we don't have to wait for the heavy hammer of Government to come slamming down on us. We are not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination and if we become complacent there will be an upswing, a 3rd wave and possibly another catastrophic lockdown...all avoidable.

[FalseBayFC]

Accurately tracking infections and deaths was never going to be possible in SA. The primary objective imo was to prevent our health system being completely overwhelmed. Pointless to compare ourselves on any worldometer. Press on with vaccination and continue with prudent containment measures is now key. But we also need to remove any obstacles to our economic recovery. That is causing more suffering than the illness itself - the economic collapse that is.

100% agree.

My point is that us as individuals should be data literate and vigilant so that we can spot the trends early enough so that we don't have to wait for the heavy hammer of Government to come slamming down on us. We are not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination and if we become complacent there will be an upswing, a 3rd wave and possibly another catastrophic lockdown...all avoidable.

Yep, a lot of the talk on the other threads seems to involve cock waving, hand wringing, hubris and schadenfreude. All based on the global death and infection rankings.

I think that considering our circumstances we've done OK. I rely on local anecdotal evidence, some data like the small sample sero-prevalence studies etc to inform my attitude to this.

My contacts in Khayelitsha, Mitchells plain etc suggest that another lockdown won't be tolerated. A major crime wave and civil unrest would be on the cards imo.

[handyman]

Accurately tracking infections and deaths was never going to be possible in SA. The primary objective imo was to prevent our health system being completely overwhelmed. Pointless to compare ourselves on any worldometer. Press on with vaccination and continue with prudent containment measures is now key. But we also need to remove any obstacles to our economic recovery. That is causing more suffering than the illness itself - the economic collapse that is.

100% agree.

My point is that us as individuals should be data literate and vigilant so that we can spot the trends early enough so that we don't have to wait for the heavy hammer of Government to come slamming down on us. We are not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination and if we become complacent there will be an upswing, a 3rd wave and possibly another catastrophic lockdown...all avoidable.

Yep, a lot of the talk on the other threads seems to involve cock waving, hand wringing, hubris and schadenfreude. All based on the global death and infection rankings.

I think that considering our circumstances we've done OK. I rely on local anecdotal evidence, some data like the small sample sero-prevalence studies etc to inform my attitude to this.

My contacts in Khayelitsha, Mitchells plain etc suggest that another lockdown won't be tolerated. A major crime wave and civil unrest would be on the cards imo.

[Sards]

Accurately tracking infections and deaths was never going to be possible in SA. The primary objective imo was to prevent our health system being completely overwhelmed. Pointless to compare ourselves on any worldometer. Press on with vaccination and continue with prudent containment measures is now key. But we also need to remove any obstacles to our economic recovery. That is causing more suffering than the illness itself - the economic collapse that is.

100% agree.

My point is that us as individuals should be data literate and vigilant so that we can spot the trends early enough so that we don't have to wait for the heavy hammer of Government to come slamming down on us. We are not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination and if we become complacent there will be an upswing, a 3rd wave and possibly another catastrophic lockdown...all avoidable.

Dude you can put a balance sheet in front of me showing a profit and in half an hour I will show a break even. Data can so easily be manipulated .

[Sards]

100% agree.

My point is that us as individuals should be data literate and vigilant so that we can spot the trends early enough so that we don't have to wait for the heavy hammer of Government to come slamming down on us. We are not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination and if we become complacent there will be an upswing, a 3rd wave and possibly another catastrophic lockdown...all avoidable.

Yep, a lot of the talk on the other threads seems to involve cock waving, hand wringing, hubris and schadenfreude. All based on the global death and infection rankings.

I think that considering our circumstances we've done OK. I rely on local anecdotal evidence, some data like the small sample sero-prevalence studies etc to inform my attitude to this.

My contacts in Khayelitsha, Mitchells plain etc suggest that another lockdown won't be tolerated. A major crime wave and civil unrest would be on the cards imo.

I think he is being serious

[FalseBayFC]

Accurately tracking infections and deaths was never going to be possible in SA. The primary objective imo was to prevent our health system being completely overwhelmed. Pointless to compare ourselves on any worldometer. Press on with vaccination and continue with prudent containment measures is now key. But we also need to remove any obstacles to our economic recovery. That is causing more suffering than the illness itself - the economic collapse that is.

100% agree.

My point is that us as individuals should be data literate and vigilant so that we can spot the trends early enough so that we don't have to wait for the heavy hammer of Government to come slamming down on us. We are not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination and if we become complacent there will be an upswing, a 3rd wave and possibly another catastrophic lockdown...all avoidable.

Dude you can put a balance sheet in front of me showing a profit and in half an hour I will show a break even. Data can so easily be manipulated .

You mean income statement, balance sheet shows solvency. Yes I am serious about the crime wave and civil unrest. The poor have very little left in the tank and winter is here soon.

[Lemoentjie]

Is "Look, we're not quite as bad as Nigeria" going to be the ANC's next election slogan?

“Is that a loaf of white bread under your arm? Vote ANC”