A place where escape goats go to play
https://www.notplanetrugby.com/
Biffer wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:50 am Wow. Truss refuses to say that she trusts her chancellor with big decisions.
2. Agree with that, but the post was already long and wanted to just focus on the debt issue. The other part of crowding out is when the government dominates a market preventing private investment (this is the one usually mentioned by Thatcherites), but opening utilities up to competition hasn't produced expensive strategic infrastructure investment (water looks to be in the very early stages of a crisis because of this). Tories also conflate competition with deregulation, but the point of good regulation is to prevent crowding out of smaller players by larger players, simply ending all regulation means monopolisation.Torquemada 1420 wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:51 pm Agree with pretty much all of this and just a few observations
1) 100% on the energy issue. I can't understand why commentators are not exposing it for what it is: rob Peter to pay Paul. And, as you highlight, it's a massive gamble on prices falling or this becomes a millstone around their necks forever at the expense of the public purse propping up super profits of the energy cos.
2) Whatever Thatcher's Govt claimed it was, the privatisation of assets paid for and owned by the public was really about 2 things
- one trick pony of clearing the national debt
- placing into the hands of their cronies products/services that had monopoly or cartelised oligopoly positions and so would be able to profiteer ad infinitum.
3) There is the other aspect to bond pricing: confidence. Kwarteng has seen the markets have concerns over the UK Govt's ability to pay back its own debt. Suicide.
4) Your point on spending being an asset rather than a debt is only true if the target of the spending provides an effective pay off down the line. Crudely, investing in teaching meeejuh studies is not the same as teaching electronic engineering. Around here, I've seen a new section of road relaid 4x in the last 12 months alone. New Deals can work but it's not a given and can easily go all Gosplan.
{EDIT} I had not checked but I see S&P has in effect downgraded the UK's credit rating. It still says AA rated but now comes with "outlook negative".
And, surprise, surprise, she's been caught embellishing her CV, claiming author contribution to a book. The contribution was, in fact, photocopying.tabascoboy wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:33 am Meanwhile Braverman throwing some fresh red meat for the jackals at the Tory party conference
that's great skills for a tory I supposeHal Jordan wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:30 pmAnd, surprise, surprise, she's been caught embellishing her CV, claiming author contribution to a book. The contribution was, in fact, photocopying.tabascoboy wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:33 am Meanwhile Braverman throwing some fresh red meat for the jackals at the Tory party conference
Same position as you although somewhat less charitable about many others' plights. Way too many people have used cheap credit since 2008 to gear themselves up to the eyeballs rather than using surplus income (from falling interest rates) to clear their debt.dpedin wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:21 am Whilst we agree the housing market is a shitfest the economic and social fallout of a dramatic and severe collapse of the housing market would impact on us all pretty severely. Also lots of innocent casualties at the bottom end of the market who were merely taken in by all the guff they have been fed over the years. This wouldn't be good for anyone and I say this as someone with no mortgage and would benefit from higher interest rates.
We really do need some folk with serious brains, political nous and a social conscious in charge.
On 4+:_Os_ wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:23 am
2. Agree with that, but the post was already long and wanted to just focus on the debt issue. The other part of crowding out is when the government dominates a market preventing private investment (this is the one usually mentioned by Thatcherites), but opening utilities up to competition hasn't produced expensive strategic infrastructure investment (water looks to be in the very early stages of a crisis because of this). Tories also conflate competition with deregulation, but the point of good regulation is to prevent crowding out of smaller players by larger players, simply ending all regulation means monopolisation.
3, Yes that's true. I just focused on bond rates because a lot of people who are running the UK, seem to have forgotten about the absolute basics. When bond rates go up and there's no realistic sovereign risk, capital flows from stocks to bonds, what would've funded private investments goes into whatever the debt is funding.
4. The pay off isn't always easy to measure, but it does reach a point where it becomes easy to determine that continuing to cut is detrimental. Many Tories seem to view things like youth centres, mental health services, free skills training, as something the state shouldn't pay for/charities should provide/left wing bullshit. If they implement their austerity MK2 programme debt will increase, just like it did under austerity MK1.
Rating agency downgrades only start becoming crucial when junk status (BB+) is being approached, because some funds are barred from investing in non-investment grade bonds as they're more risky. The UK would require another 10+ years of this standard of governance to reach that point.
Ah yes. Another coconut who wants to pull up the drawbridge from which she and her own family benefited.tabascoboy wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:33 am Meanwhile Braverman throwing some fresh red meat for the jackals at the Tory party conference
Gordoh knows the real numbers unlike Brandon Lewis (frothing more lies this morning on the Beeb when he claimed (again, unchallenged by the Beeb) that the UK has the 2nd lowest debt to GDP in the G7). Gordoh has included the hole in things like the public sector pensions.
I doubt it.Torquemada 1420 wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:47 pm I genuinely believe a hard kick in the teeth over the relationship with housing is needed to try and fix all this
Additionally for SMEs, as soon as they start getting investors I volved to grow, all the talk is of the exit strategy. In other words how quickly can we grow it tot the roi we want and then get rid of it. We hear various agencies banging on about unicorns but there's no interest in investing to achieve that in the UK._Os_ wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:47 pmI doubt it.Torquemada 1420 wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:47 pm I genuinely believe a hard kick in the teeth over the relationship with housing is needed to try and fix all this
After any housing market crash if nothing else changes the housing market just comes back exactly as it is now. We also both know the best time to get into BTL was 20+ years ago, and those that did so and managed their portfolios well are basically bomb proof.
The problem is the entire UK economy is about owning things and not doing things, it's all about rent extraction. It's just most obvious with housing, because everyone needs a roof over their head. But the problem is systemic and covers everything from natural resources/land and buildings/infrastructure/IP/finance. Normally you find the UK government has created the asset and distributed it (most obvious with Thatcher's privatisations). The owners then sit on the asset and squeeze everything they can from it.
When someone tries to start a business that's scalable and about doing something rather than owning something, they quickly discover the entry barrier is owning quite a lot already (and often then decide BTL is the best option, or if they don't own enough a sole trader type business which cannot scale). If they persist they find something else out, every tool (software and hardware) they need for their business isn't UK produced, because the UK economy isn't about disrupting owners. All their software is American and the hardware is East Asian/European/American, and all the best advice/knowledge doesn't come from the UK either. They'll also find their business model didn't exist or wasn't viable 10 years ago and is mostly online, and the reason they'll end up with that is because rent (building rent, council tax business rate, and now even the cost of electricity) make any other option unviable. The issue for the UK is once businesses like that scale, there's less incentive for them to employ people in the UK as they're starting out distributed/internationalised.
Whatever the solution is, it's never coming from the Tories.
Add to that that UK banks won't invest in businesses: it's all about short term loans at high rates with an immediate call on the debt. Plus they usually force security on other assets (e.g. your home) and so the whole notion of limited liability business is circumvented. Ditto of PE/VC money as per Biffer's observation._Os_ wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:47 pmI doubt it.Torquemada 1420 wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:47 pm I genuinely believe a hard kick in the teeth over the relationship with housing is needed to try and fix all this
After any housing market crash if nothing else changes the housing market just comes back exactly as it is now. We also both know the best time to get into BTL was 20+ years ago, and those that did so and managed their portfolios well are basically bomb proof.
The problem is the entire UK economy is about owning things and not doing things, it's all about rent extraction. It's just most obvious with housing, because everyone needs a roof over their head. But the problem is systemic and covers everything from natural resources/land and buildings/infrastructure/IP/finance. Normally you find the UK government has created the asset and distributed it (most obvious with Thatcher's privatisations). The owners then sit on the asset and squeeze everything they can from it.
When someone tries to start a business that's scalable and about doing something rather than owning something, they quickly discover the entry barrier is owning quite a lot already (and often then decide BTL is the best option, or if they don't own enough a sole trader type business which cannot scale). If they persist they find something else out, every tool (software and hardware) they need for their business isn't UK produced, because the UK economy isn't about disrupting owners. All their software is American and the hardware is East Asian/European/American, and all the best advice/knowledge doesn't come from the UK either. They'll also find their business model didn't exist or wasn't viable 10 years ago and is mostly online, and the reason they'll end up with that is because rent (building rent, council tax business rate, and now even the cost of electricity) make any other option unviable. The issue for the UK is once businesses like that scale, there's less incentive for them to employ people in the UK as they're starting out distributed/internationalised.
Whatever the solution is, it's never coming from the Tories.
Or in other words, maybe assuming that in the quietude of the post mournfest that it would somehow slip by while attention was still elsewhere?Biffer wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:16 pm We're now at the 'it's the Queen's fault for dying' stage of apportioning blame for the budget fuxkup.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 95185.html
meh, He's just a Stephen Fry wannabe without the intellect, wearing a Fry suit.Slick wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:32 pm I quite like JRM. Don’t agree with a word he says but I find him quite an intriguing character
Are Albanian small boat arrivals making false claims?
The home secretary said many of the Albanians arriving in the UK in small boats were falsely claiming to be trafficking victims.
Home Office figures show that in the first six months of this year, 18% of people arriving in small boats were from Albania (more than 2,100 people).
This is a substantial increase on the same period the year before, when there were just 23 arrivals from the country.
Yet yearly immigration figures also show that over half of recent arrivals from Albania were granted asylum by the government.
Albanians were also the most commonly referred nationality for trafficking support. In the first quarter of this year, Albanians accounted for 27% (1,008) of all potential victims.
The Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority was set up by the government to investigate trafficking claims. It found that in the first half of this year, 97% of cases referred for human trafficking were genuine, according to a report by a human rights charity.
After the Irish property bubble crashed, there were reforms, but if you were young & wanted to buy a house, it was hard to see how they benefited you, & even if you had a house & wanted to trade up, they weren't much good to you._Os_ wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:47 pm After any housing market crash if nothing else changes the housing market just comes back exactly as it is now. We also both know the best time to get into BTL was 20+ years ago, and those that did so and managed their portfolios well are basically bomb proof.
I like neeps wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:23 am
Not sure why Labour are playing the we'll be tougher on illegal immigration than Tories line. They'll never be more hateful (although they might try). And what do they think will happen? Illegal immigration to the UK is small part of people escaping conflict and climate breakdown across ME and Africa coming into Europe. Neither of the parties will "fix it". The press who have turned up Patel, will turn on Braverman will absolutely savage whoever Labour's Home Sec is too.
Never underestimate the shy Tory vote e.g. my paternal grandmother, who voted Tory all her life and lied to my Liberal voting grandfather about it, she confessed as much to my father after my grandfather died.Lobby wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:51 am I’m sure the ‘red wall’ Tories are delighted with Truss’s 1st month in charge
They probably shouldn't cede the argument to the racist populists.Tichtheid wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:57 amI like neeps wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:23 am
Not sure why Labour are playing the we'll be tougher on illegal immigration than Tories line. They'll never be more hateful (although they might try). And what do they think will happen? Illegal immigration to the UK is small part of people escaping conflict and climate breakdown across ME and Africa coming into Europe. Neither of the parties will "fix it". The press who have turned up Patel, will turn on Braverman will absolutely savage whoever Labour's Home Sec is too.
It's a tricky one, a serious conversation on the subject is nigh on impossible, that was shown by Farage standing in front of a poster depicting a huge queue of people supposedly (incorrectly) waiting to get into the UK.
Labour probably knows that the Tory press will play that card in the lead up to the next election, they should have worked out a grown-up response to populist racism by now.
I don't think pointing out Tory failure by their own criteria and 'process claims quicker and send back people who don't have a genuine claim to be here' = an avowed intent to be tougher on illegal migrants than the Tories.I like neeps wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:23 am
Not sure why Labour are playing the we'll be tougher on illegal immigration than Tories line. They'll never be more hateful (although they might try). And what do they think will happen? Illegal immigration to the UK is small part of people escaping conflict and climate breakdown across ME and Africa coming into Europe. Neither of the parties will "fix it". The press who have turned up Patel, will turn on Braverman will absolutely savage whoever Labour's Home Sec is too.
1) If house prices fall then surely 1st time buyers benefit from reduced costs all round (assuming interest rate rises don't negate all of them)?fishfoodie wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:28 pmAfter the Irish property bubble crashed, there were reforms, but if you were young & wanted to buy a house, it was hard to see how they benefited you, & even if you had a house & wanted to trade up, they weren't much good to you._Os_ wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:47 pm After any housing market crash if nothing else changes the housing market just comes back exactly as it is now. We also both know the best time to get into BTL was 20+ years ago, and those that did so and managed their portfolios well are basically bomb proof.
The bottom line is that the only people who can benefit from a property crash, are those with cold, hard, cash !
If house prices crash, those with mortgages lose shitloads of the equity they've built up, & if the want to move, they're faced with the same increased interest rates as everyone else, & if the Banks now have mortgage books full of houses in negative equity, then the BoE will make them impose enormous restrictions on those seeking new mortgages; lest the banks go pop !!
The other simple reality is that house development will immediately grind to a complete halt (it's already under enormous pressure because of inflation, & COVID/Brexit supply chain pains); & the supply of new housing will cease; because their development was based on the Pre-Crash pricing; & then, if you're like Ireland, most of the developers will go bust, & their contractors will bugger off to places where they can still work, & you'll end up with a significant number of years where you aren't even meeting minimum goals for new housing !
And then guess what !
Any properties, or developments that are close to completion, will probably be hoovered up by REITs; because the underlying conditions for the bubble, of high rents, & high prices, low supply, & friendly tax breaks, will draw them in, & they'll buy up whole apartment blocks & housing estates, & completely freeze out private buyers.
robmatic wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:56 amThey probably shouldn't cede the argument to the racist populists.Tichtheid wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:57 amI like neeps wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:23 am
Not sure why Labour are playing the we'll be tougher on illegal immigration than Tories line. They'll never be more hateful (although they might try). And what do they think will happen? Illegal immigration to the UK is small part of people escaping conflict and climate breakdown across ME and Africa coming into Europe. Neither of the parties will "fix it". The press who have turned up Patel, will turn on Braverman will absolutely savage whoever Labour's Home Sec is too.
It's a tricky one, a serious conversation on the subject is nigh on impossible, that was shown by Farage standing in front of a poster depicting a huge queue of people supposedly (incorrectly) waiting to get into the UK.
Labour probably knows that the Tory press will play that card in the lead up to the next election, they should have worked out a grown-up response to populist racism by now.
I actually think it's pretty reasonable for Labour to be talking about deportations. Whether you are pro or anti immigration, deportation is something that the UK is quite bad at and is an important part of the policy toolkit for managing migration.
I gave it about 7 minutes before my ears started bleeding.dpedin wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 11:09 am Well that was a depressing speech from the PM - nothing of substance, nothing new just the creation of a new 'enemy of the people'! Instead of 'remainers' apparently everyone who isn't a Tory, or even a Tory who doesn't support her, is now part of an 'anti growth coalition'. It reminded me of the Star Wars 'Empire' v the 'Rebel Alliance' - so feckin childish. In the absence of any ideas etc they need to create an artificial enemy to throw crap towards. Absolute risible nonsense!
Quite a lot of the speech sounded like the stump speech she was making during the Tory leadership, or what she was saying during the hustings. These arguments were successful with her audience – Conservative party members – and so it probably made sense to provide them with an encore today. But hardcore free market libertarianism is a niche enthusiasm, even in the Conservative party, and there was nothing in the speech that will make her economic agenda sound more appealing to the public at large than it is already (which is not, not very). The speech was not even particularly well written.
When driving ideology is more important than the people whose lives it is supposed to improve ( except the top 1% earners of course )dpedin wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 11:09 am Well that was a depressing speech from the PM - nothing of substance, nothing new just the creation of a new 'enemy of the people'! Instead of 'remainers' apparently everyone who isn't a Tory, or even a Tory who doesn't support her, is now part of an 'anti growth coalition'. It reminded me of the Star Wars 'Empire' v the 'Rebel Alliance' - so feckin childish. In the absence of any ideas etc they need to create an artificial enemy to throw crap towards. Absolute risible nonsense!
I assume her speech was so short and devoid of substance because they had to rip out any new policy or tax announcements yesterday after the response to her and Khamikarzi's disastrous budget. This would also account for it being so poorly written - too many advisors making last minute adjustments of the 'best we don't mention that bit right now' type.SaintK wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 11:23 amI gave it about 7 minutes before my ears started bleeding.dpedin wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 11:09 am Well that was a depressing speech from the PM - nothing of substance, nothing new just the creation of a new 'enemy of the people'! Instead of 'remainers' apparently everyone who isn't a Tory, or even a Tory who doesn't support her, is now part of an 'anti growth coalition'. It reminded me of the Star Wars 'Empire' v the 'Rebel Alliance' - so feckin childish. In the absence of any ideas etc they need to create an artificial enemy to throw crap towards. Absolute risible nonsense!Quite a lot of the speech sounded like the stump speech she was making during the Tory leadership, or what she was saying during the hustings. These arguments were successful with her audience – Conservative party members – and so it probably made sense to provide them with an encore today. But hardcore free market libertarianism is a niche enthusiasm, even in the Conservative party, and there was nothing in the speech that will make her economic agenda sound more appealing to the public at large than it is already (which is not, not very). The speech was not even particularly well written.
Think the general concensus from the Lobby was that she did ok, targetted nit at her audience and didn't say anytrhing new but more importantly didn't make any more fuck upsLobby wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 12:08 pmI assume her speech was so short and devoid of substance because they had to rip out any new policy or tax announcements yesterday after the response to her and Khamikarzi's disastrous budget. This would also account for it being so poorly written - too many advisors making last minute adjustments of the 'best we don't mention that bit right now' type.SaintK wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 11:23 amI gave it about 7 minutes before my ears started bleeding.dpedin wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 11:09 am Well that was a depressing speech from the PM - nothing of substance, nothing new just the creation of a new 'enemy of the people'! Instead of 'remainers' apparently everyone who isn't a Tory, or even a Tory who doesn't support her, is now part of an 'anti growth coalition'. It reminded me of the Star Wars 'Empire' v the 'Rebel Alliance' - so feckin childish. In the absence of any ideas etc they need to create an artificial enemy to throw crap towards. Absolute risible nonsense!Quite a lot of the speech sounded like the stump speech she was making during the Tory leadership, or what she was saying during the hustings. These arguments were successful with her audience – Conservative party members – and so it probably made sense to provide them with an encore today. But hardcore free market libertarianism is a niche enthusiasm, even in the Conservative party, and there was nothing in the speech that will make her economic agenda sound more appealing to the public at large than it is already (which is not, not very). The speech was not even particularly well written.
I'm sure she originally intended to cement her place as PM with a triumphant speech to the Tory faithful, but instead had to concentrate on not making any more fuck-ups and not spooking the markets any more than she and Kwarteng have already. After the last few days, she is also probably aware that most of her MPs are part of the 'anti-growth' coalition and won't be voting in favour of her 'revolution'.
Oh and she lied about being the first PM from a comprehensive school. Both Brown and May went to comprehensives.