NPR

tc27 wrote: Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:41 am

Paddington Bear wrote: Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:43 am Are case numbers really wildly out of kilter skewed towards England in the UK? Didn't appear so last I checked although I'm not constantly looking at these things

Over the summer of 2020 Scottish nationalism got a big boost by the perception that the devolved government had handled the epidemic much better than the the UK government had handled it in England (which as of yet has no devolved government) based on case numbers. This lead to the claim by by Nicola Sturgeon that the virus was effectively eliminated over the summer of 2020 in Scotland only to be reseeded by visitors from England (the former based on incorrect data and the second a fairly scurrilous claim by a politician claiming respectability).

Of course subsequent events have undermined this narrative and subsequently the comparable metrics (deaths with CV19 on the certificate) and total cases have fallen broadly into line with each other (particularity given in population and density terms England is quite a different proposition to the other UK nations).

yermum wrote: Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:45 pm 3 out of 4 in my house have covid. I am legend now

Came back from my eldest daughters School.

Muttonbird wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 12:15 am

yermum wrote: Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:45 pm 3 out of 4 in my house have covid. I am legend now

Came back from my eldest daughters School.

Me and the boy were due second Pfizer on 21 October, six weeks after the first. Brought it forward to this morning (4 weeks) on government advice. This will give the whole family protection when he and his sister return to school on 18 October (hopefully).

A slow motion train-wreck is coming to NZ, don't want to end up anywhere near a hospital in the next three months.

dpedin wrote: Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:43 am

tc27 wrote: Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:41 am

Paddington Bear wrote: Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:43 am Are case numbers really wildly out of kilter skewed towards England in the UK? Didn't appear so last I checked although I'm not constantly looking at these things

Over the summer of 2020 Scottish nationalism got a big boost by the perception that the devolved government had handled the epidemic much better than the the UK government had handled it in England (which as of yet has no devolved government) based on case numbers. This lead to the claim by by Nicola Sturgeon that the virus was effectively eliminated over the summer of 2020 in Scotland only to be reseeded by visitors from England (the former based on incorrect data and the second a fairly scurrilous claim by a politician claiming respectability).

Of course subsequent events have undermined this narrative and subsequently the comparable metrics (deaths with CV19 on the certificate) and total cases have fallen broadly into line with each other (particularity given in population and density terms England is quite a different proposition to the other UK nations).

Pop density doesn't drive/explain differences in case numbers - compare us with Japan for instance.

Paddington Bear wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 7:38 am

dpedin wrote: Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:43 am

tc27 wrote: Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:41 am


Over the summer of 2020 Scottish nationalism got a big boost by the perception that the devolved government had handled the epidemic much better than the the UK government had handled it in England (which as of yet has no devolved government) based on case numbers. This lead to the claim by by Nicola Sturgeon that the virus was effectively eliminated over the summer of 2020 in Scotland only to be reseeded by visitors from England (the former based on incorrect data and the second a fairly scurrilous claim by a politician claiming respectability).

Of course subsequent events have undermined this narrative and subsequently the comparable metrics (deaths with CV19 on the certificate) and total cases have fallen broadly into line with each other (particularity given in population and density terms England is quite a different proposition to the other UK nations).

Pop density doesn't drive/explain differences in case numbers - compare us with Japan for instance.

Japan is the comparison no one wants to touch (Cummings was right about the 'asians are weird' mindset that partially explains this).

All that said, I think pop density does help to explain faster spread in the UK than other Western European nations.

on March 9 2020, the Japanese government had introduced its “3Cs policy”: avoid closed spaces, crowded places and close contact, especially when talking or singing. These three measures were based on detailed analysis of outbreaks using not just prospective contact tracing (to identify people who may have caught the disease from an infected individual) but retrospective tracing (to find how that individual became infected).

This allowed public health experts to hypothesise about a possible airborne route of transmission. The Japanese government was honest with the public, explicitly invoking the precautionary principle:

We do not have enough scientific evidence yet on how significantly such actions can reduce the risk of spreading infection. However, since places with poor ventilation and crowded places are increasing infections, we ask that you take precautions even before scientific evidence for clear standards is found.

This prompt and cautious policy, based on preliminary but rigorous science, helped ensure that Japan’s first wave was tiny

tc27 wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 8:58 am

Paddington Bear wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 7:38 am

dpedin wrote: Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:43 am

Pop density doesn't drive/explain differences in case numbers - compare us with Japan for instance.

Japan is the comparison no one wants to touch (Cummings was right about the 'asians are weird' mindset that partially explains this).

All that said, I think pop density does help to explain faster spread in the UK than other Western European nations.

Population density is one factor but its fair to say its complicated. And I think if you admit population density might not be the driving factor then you also have to admit its probably not the relatively minor differences in the approach to policy within the UK itself.

To illustrate this point the region in the UK that has the lowest covid related death is the Southwest of England (153.4 per 100k) but England also has the region with the highest deaths (North West at
293 per 100k). Both these regions have larger populations than any of the other UK nations and both had the same public health policies set directly by the UK government.

Paddington Bear wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 7:38 am

dpedin wrote: Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:43 am

tc27 wrote: Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:41 am


Over the summer of 2020 Scottish nationalism got a big boost by the perception that the devolved government had handled the epidemic much better than the the UK government had handled it in England (which as of yet has no devolved government) based on case numbers. This lead to the claim by by Nicola Sturgeon that the virus was effectively eliminated over the summer of 2020 in Scotland only to be reseeded by visitors from England (the former based on incorrect data and the second a fairly scurrilous claim by a politician claiming respectability).

Of course subsequent events have undermined this narrative and subsequently the comparable metrics (deaths with CV19 on the certificate) and total cases have fallen broadly into line with each other (particularity given in population and density terms England is quite a different proposition to the other UK nations).

Pop density doesn't drive/explain differences in case numbers - compare us with Japan for instance.

Japan is the comparison no one wants to touch (Cummings was right about the 'asians are weird' mindset that partially explains this).

All that said, I think pop density does help to explain faster spread in the UK than other Western European nations.

Sandstorm wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 10:17 am I was in Cambridge on Monday and it was first day back in town for all the students. Hardly any of them were wearing masks, even the Asian kids weren’t bothering.

Older people were maybe 50% masked, but the younger gen were like….meh innit.

Paddington Bear wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:03 am

Sandstorm wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 10:17 am I was in Cambridge on Monday and it was first day back in town for all the students. Hardly any of them were wearing masks, even the Asian kids weren’t bothering.

Older people were maybe 50% masked, but the younger gen were like….meh innit.

Are you referencing whilst being outside? As there's pretty much no reason to wear a mask outside.

Calculon wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:30 am

Slick wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:00 am

Rinkals wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:07 am

They accept South African passports and other documents.

That there is suddenly doubt cast on the ability of South Africa to regulate and control proof of vaccination is insulting and I'm inclined to feel it has its roots, if not in outright racism, certainly in the perception that the Nations listed as untrustworthy are inferior. In spite of Sandy's protestations.

That doesn't explain Kenya moving though, does it. I really think it's the simple fact that the SA government have been generally shite and the Kenyans have been generally pretty good.

The UK also does not accept Kenyan vaccine certificates though. I don't know which countries accept the Kenyan vaccine certificates but it seems all countries accept the SA ones except for the UK.

You won't find any saffa on here who disagree that the SA government are a bunch of incompetent crooks with almost no exceptions but its still managed to fully vaccinate about 8 or 9 times more of its population than Kenya has. Kenya also does not come close to our ability to sequence, track and discover any potential new strains.

edit: good piece in The Times on SA remaining on the red list

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/travel/comme ... e-red-list

It's actually a disgraceful decision but even more so is the UK high commission in Pretoria putting out tweets containing fake covid information that serves to increase vaccine hesitancy in South Africa. It's a pity our government is so useless or apathetic about it that it won't bring them to task.

dpedin wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:35 pm
UK covid case numbers still kicking around 40k per day and deaths running at a weekly rate of about double that in comparable European neighbours ie France, Italy, Germany, etc.

Sandstorm wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:11 pm

dpedin wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:35 pm
UK covid case numbers still kicking around 40k per day and deaths running at a weekly rate of about double that in comparable European neighbours ie France, Italy, Germany, etc.

Friends in Germany are horrified at how blasé UK is about the Covid death rate right now. Can’t believe we have basically decided it’s all over already.

Sandstorm wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:11 pm

dpedin wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:35 pm
UK covid case numbers still kicking around 40k per day and deaths running at a weekly rate of about double that in comparable European neighbours ie France, Italy, Germany, etc.

Friends in Germany are horrified at how blasé UK is about the Covid death rate right now. Can’t believe we have basically decided it’s all over already.

fishfoodie wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:32 pm

Sandstorm wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:11 pm

dpedin wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:35 pm
UK covid case numbers still kicking around 40k per day and deaths running at a weekly rate of about double that in comparable European neighbours ie France, Italy, Germany, etc.

Friends in Germany are horrified at how blasé UK is about the Covid death rate right now. Can’t believe we have basically decided it’s all over already.

Well these are the geniuses that gave the; "herd immunity", idea, more than the 3 seconds of thought; before deciding that looking up a rope wasn't an improbably outcome, for themselves.

Covid: UK start to pandemic worst public health failure ever, MPs say

The UK's failure to do more to stop Covid spreading early in the pandemic was one of the worst ever public health failures, a report by MPs says.

The government approach - backed by its scientists - was to try to manage the situation and in effect achieve herd immunity by infection, it said.

This led to a delay in introducing the first lockdown, costing lives.

But the report by the cross-party group said there had been successes too - in particular the vaccination programme.

It described the whole approach - from the research and development through to the rollout of the jabs - as "one of the most effective initiatives in UK history".

The report predominantly focuses on the response to the pandemic in England. The committee did not look at steps taken individually by Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

tc27 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:16 am I think the decisions in the spring on 2020 are at least mitigated by the fact the politicians where following the scientific advice (flawed as it was).

In my view the failure to react to the second wave in the Autumn until it was far too late was far less excusable - waffling on about saving Christmas ETC

Greg Clark [ Con MP ], chairman of the Science and Technology Committee that co-authored the report, says it is doing the "painful" work in trying to "squeeze out the lessons" from the government's handling of the pandemic.

Asked what the report found on why the government delayed locking the country down, Clark says one "mistake" was the "assumption" that people wouldn't obey lockdown rules for a long period of time and that the harshest restrictions could only be brought in at the last minute to ensure maximum compliance and effect.

"What we actually discovered in practice was that people were actually perfectly prepared to follow instructions, to stay at home, because they realised the importance of it," he tells BBC Breakfast.

Clark says there also wasn't enough testing capacity at the outset - which left the country "in the dark" on the Covid picture in the community - and the UK should have been quicker to mobilise it.

"The operational response of NHS test and trace was very poor and very slow and that really hampered our initial response," he adds.

The report also discusses whether the UK was quick enough to close its borders.

"The UK did not impose blanket or rigorous border controls at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic as compared to other countries, particularly in East and South East Asia," the report says.

"Instead, the UK implemented light-touch border controls only on countries and regions where there was a recorded high incidence rate. While the UK initially focused on China, Iran, South Korea and Italy, a significant number of cases came from elsewhere.

"A study found that 33% of cases during the first wave were introduced from Spain and 29% were introduced from France.

"The number of seeding events that occurred early in the pandemic, coupled with the lack of data, made the lockdown almost inevitable.

"By contrast, other countries implemented more rigorous border controls which were more effective at suppressing the virus and preventing the need for long and repeated lockdowns.

"However, even though it is not straightforward to make direct comparisons between countries, and it is yet to be seen how countries like New Zealand will fare when their borders are opened, it is reasonable to say that a more precautionary approach would have been beneficial at the start of the pandemic."

Slick wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:33 am

tc27 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:16 am I think the decisions in the spring on 2020 are at least mitigated by the fact the politicians where following the scientific advice (flawed as it was).

In my view the failure to react to the second wave in the Autumn until it was far too late was far less excusable - waffling on about saving Christmas ETC

Yup, totally agree. No one really knew what they were doing at the beginning and there was plenty of conflicting advice coming from scientists.

FalseBayFC wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:51 am

fishfoodie wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:32 pm

Sandstorm wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:11 pm

Friends in Germany are horrified at how blasé UK is about the Covid death rate right now. Can’t believe we have basically decided it’s all over already.

Well these are the geniuses that gave the; "herd immunity", idea, more than the 3 seconds of thought; before deciding that looking up a rope wasn't an improbably outcome, for themselves.

In South Africa we have relaxed restrictions to a light level 1. Covid fatigue means that this is virtually all shields down. But also our infections are down to 200 per day and deaths are 25 a day. And this with only 20 percent vaccination rate.

All schools are open, pubs and restaurants going great guns, social distancing and mask wearing is very loosely adhered to.

What puzzles me is how a wave can drop so dramatically. Is this not some evidence of herd immunity through infection?

Margin__Walker wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:46 am

Slick wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:33 am

tc27 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:16 am I think the decisions in the spring on 2020 are at least mitigated by the fact the politicians where following the scientific advice (flawed as it was).

In my view the failure to react to the second wave in the Autumn until it was far too late was far less excusable - waffling on about saving Christmas ETC

Yup, totally agree. No one really knew what they were doing at the beginning and there was plenty of conflicting advice coming from scientists.

100%. Mistaken as it was, you can understand the first one.

The delays in the Autumn (and December) were a complete mess though. People need to be held accountable for that when all is said and done. They weren't operating in the dark when those decisions were made.

tc27 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:16 am In my view the failure to react to the second wave in the Autumn until it was far too late was far less excusable - waffling on about saving Christmas ETC

Hal Jordan wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 12:48 pm We mustn't dwell on the past, lessons will be learned, we are looking to the future.

Slick wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:33 am

tc27 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:16 am I think the decisions in the spring on 2020 are at least mitigated by the fact the politicians where following the scientific advice (flawed as it was).

In my view the failure to react to the second wave in the Autumn until it was far too late was far less excusable - waffling on about saving Christmas ETC

Yup, totally agree. No one really knew what they were doing at the beginning and there was plenty of conflicting advice coming from scientists.

Calculon wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:00 am

FalseBayFC wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:51 am

fishfoodie wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:32 pm

Well these are the geniuses that gave the; "herd immunity", idea, more than the 3 seconds of thought; before deciding that looking up a rope wasn't an improbably outcome, for themselves.

In South Africa we have relaxed restrictions to a light level 1. Covid fatigue means that this is virtually all shields down. But also our infections are down to 200 per day and deaths are 25 a day. And this with only 20 percent vaccination rate.

All schools are open, pubs and restaurants going great guns, social distancing and mask wearing is very loosely adhered to.

What puzzles me is how a wave can drop so dramatically. Is this not some evidence of herd immunity through infection?

Could be, but we had the same dramatic drop after the first and second wave

Biffer wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 2:00 pm

Slick wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:33 am

tc27 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:16 am I think the decisions in the spring on 2020 are at least mitigated by the fact the politicians where following the scientific advice (flawed as it was).

In my view the failure to react to the second wave in the Autumn until it was far too late was far less excusable - waffling on about saving Christmas ETC

Yup, totally agree. No one really knew what they were doing at the beginning and there was plenty of conflicting advice coming from scientists.

See, my problem with all of this is the complete lack of any scientific background in our politicians. Basically it's nearly all PPE @Oxford types, who lack any genuine critical thinking. There were plenty of people calling for earlier lockdowns and the fundamental here should have been the precautionary principle rather than the middle road / wait and see approach. It shows a complete lack of any understanding of probabilities vs outcomes, as well as a lack of understanding of the general public. Nobody challenged the scientists advising government on the most basic assumption they'd all made - to treat this like a flu pandemic, even though it wasn't. The evidence of rapid spread was right in front of us. Other countries got it right, so I don't think it's unfair to criticise those that got it wrong.

Biffer wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 2:00 pm

Slick wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:33 am

tc27 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:16 am I think the decisions in the spring on 2020 are at least mitigated by the fact the politicians where following the scientific advice (flawed as it was).

In my view the failure to react to the second wave in the Autumn until it was far too late was far less excusable - waffling on about saving Christmas ETC

Yup, totally agree. No one really knew what they were doing at the beginning and there was plenty of conflicting advice coming from scientists.

See, my problem with all of this is the complete lack of any scientific background in our politicians. Basically it's nearly all PPE @Oxford types, who lack any genuine critical thinking. There were plenty of people calling for earlier lockdowns and the fundamental here should have been the precautionary principle rather than the middle road / wait and see approach. It shows a complete lack of any understanding of probabilities vs outcomes, as well as a lack of understanding of the general public. Nobody challenged the scientists advising government on the most basic assumption they'd all made - to treat this like a flu pandemic, even though it wasn't. The evidence of rapid spread was right in front of us. Other countries got it right, so I don't think it's unfair to criticise those that got it wrong.

FalseBayFC wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 2:13 pm

Calculon wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:00 am

FalseBayFC wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:51 am
In South Africa we have relaxed restrictions to a light level 1. Covid fatigue means that this is virtually all shields down. But also our infections are down to 200 per day and deaths are 25 a day. And this with only 20 percent vaccination rate.

All schools are open, pubs and restaurants going great guns, social distancing and mask wearing is very loosely adhered to.

What puzzles me is how a wave can drop so dramatically. Is this not some evidence of herd immunity through infection?

Could be, but we had the same dramatic drop after the first and second wave

Yes but at that stage we were at level 4 lockdown with fairly rigid adherence to all the precautions. The downward trend in the current wave has happened concurrently with a loosening of these. It will be interesting to observe the trend in a few weeks time. Especially since events with large attendances are now back on the table.

tc27 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:12 pm

Biffer wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 2:00 pm

Slick wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:33 am

Yup, totally agree. No one really knew what they were doing at the beginning and there was plenty of conflicting advice coming from scientists.

See, my problem with all of this is the complete lack of any scientific background in our politicians. Basically it's nearly all PPE @Oxford types, who lack any genuine critical thinking. There were plenty of people calling for earlier lockdowns and the fundamental here should have been the precautionary principle rather than the middle road / wait and see approach. It shows a complete lack of any understanding of probabilities vs outcomes, as well as a lack of understanding of the general public. Nobody challenged the scientists advising government on the most basic assumption they'd all made - to treat this like a flu pandemic, even though it wasn't. The evidence of rapid spread was right in front of us. Other countries got it right, so I don't think it's unfair to criticise those that got it wrong.

I largely agree with this which is why think the flawed scientific advice only mitigates that governments handling of the events in the spring and does not absolve them.

Raggs wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:43 pm

tc27 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:12 pm

Biffer wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 2:00 pm

See, my problem with all of this is the complete lack of any scientific background in our politicians. Basically it's nearly all PPE @Oxford types, who lack any genuine critical thinking. There were plenty of people calling for earlier lockdowns and the fundamental here should have been the precautionary principle rather than the middle road / wait and see approach. It shows a complete lack of any understanding of probabilities vs outcomes, as well as a lack of understanding of the general public. Nobody challenged the scientists advising government on the most basic assumption they'd all made - to treat this like a flu pandemic, even though it wasn't. The evidence of rapid spread was right in front of us. Other countries got it right, so I don't think it's unfair to criticise those that got it wrong.

I largely agree with this which is why think the flawed scientific advice only mitigates that governments handling of the events in the spring and does not absolve them.

Even the original Imperial document said that lockdowns would be required. It's not that they weren't in the plan at all. It was felt that 0 covid was a dream (and I have to agree, the UK gets far too much footfall to pretend we could have kept it out, even if we'd managed to remove it from our shores in the first place).

Calculon wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:22 pm

FalseBayFC wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 2:13 pm

Calculon wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:00 am

Could be, but we had the same dramatic drop after the first and second wave

Yes but at that stage we were at level 4 lockdown with fairly rigid adherence to all the precautions. The downward trend in the current wave has happened concurrently with a loosening of these. It will be interesting to observe the trend in a few weeks time. Especially since events with large attendances are now back on the table.

My understanding is we're unlikely to get proper herd immunity like for example we got for measles. The virus will continue to circulate in the background, infecting people and killing of the vulnerable. As shown in the UK, the virus can still spread around (infect people and be transmitted) even when high levels of the population have some level of immunity through vaccines/previous infections or both. In saying that, I think enough people in SA have some level of immunity against the delta variant (and many of the most vulnerable have already died) that I don't think there will be a fourth wave driven by the delta variant with anything like the mortality we've seen wave 3. Wave one was the alpha, 2 the beta, new variants could complicate matters but hopefully enough immunity will carry over to any new variant.