So, coronavirus...

[Sandstorm]

Obviously I’m not talking about the dodgy lab … But in terms of managing it once you’ve 90% vaccinated, (and ideally the 12-16’s covered), what actually is/was the other option apart from live with it?

There is no way this thing is not going to burn through our population. And possibly better it does sooner while the vaccinations are more effective.

Keep doing the simple PH measures that have done all the hard yards this far !

Let people work from home (Ireland, has now gone from aiming for this to reduce in Oct/Nov, to conceding it can't happen till Spring)

Businesses already have all the shields, masks, etc in place; so keep using them, & tell people that social distancing is still best if they have the space.

It's all about minimizing the risks where we a lot of the hard work is done; & then keep pushing vaccination, & start shooting the anti-vaxxer cunts scaring people*



* may not be completely legal; but we have to start thinking about doing it in a limited & specific way.

Rich business property landlords have pressured/bribed the Govt to get people back to work.

[Ymx]

I was wondering what’s going to happen to the commercial real estate. Converted to residential was the expectation. Though that needs capital to do.

[fishfoodie]

I was wondering what’s going to happen to the commercial real estate. Converted to residential was the expectation. Though that needs capital to do.

So in other words; commercial real estate owners want a bribe from the taxpayers; to switch to a more profitable real estate; & because the cunts in power can sell this as a win; they're confident they'll get that bribe.

Government give tax payers money to insanely rich people to spend said money to convert commercial lets into residential.

Tories trumpet their Green credentials; by enabling more people to WFH.

Tories trumpet their Caring credentials; by enabling the creation of many more housing Units in the most expensive parts of Cities.

Tax payers get fleeced; by paying twice; if not three times for a tiny flat in a former commercial let.

[Ymx]

I’m not certain the capital to transform it will be a hand out.

Probably some owners of commercial property will have their ownership bought out by private developers.

Most owners of commercial property own shares in a building and it generates income and capital gains for them. Selling done through property broker.

But that income is at risk of drying up as commercial leases start expiring or expect to expire. The valuation is significantly driven by income (like with a bond) so the valuation of their ownership will dive.

So I expect the residential developers will pick it up at bargain prices.

But I think this will all be driven by natural capital markets, no need for government to intervene. Except unless they offer grants. But haven’t read that.

This is just my understanding, and I might be totally wrong about all of this. An expert on the bored may correct my understanding.

[shaggy]

I was wondering what’s going to happen to the commercial real estate. Converted to residential was the expectation. Though that needs capital to do.

So in other words; commercial real estate owners want a bribe from the taxpayers; to switch to a more profitable real estate; & because the cunts in power can sell this as a win; they're confident they'll get that bribe.

Government give tax payers money to insanely rich people to spend said money to convert commercial lets into residential.

Tories trumpet their Green credentials; by enabling more people to WFH.

Tories trumpet their Caring credentials; by enabling the creation of many more housing Units in the most expensive parts of Cities.

Tax payers get fleeced; by paying twice; if not three times for a tiny flat in a former commercial let.

Do you know where your pension pot is invested? Commercial property is indelibly linked to all of our retirements, they are not just the plaything of some small group of evil overseas investors.

[Paddington Bear]

Commercial landlords are going to bring enormous pressure to bear to get people back to work in 2022.
Fwiw though no one is crying salt tears for them, I'm increasingly down on wfh - in general I think it does reduce productivity and makes it very difficult for people to start new roles/take on new projects. A lot of people have coasted through the pandemic from their spare room.

I've made the point before but if there is no benefit to having a London/Amsterdam/New York etc office then in the longer term we cannot expect London/Amsterdam/NY wages and I think we'll find jobs replaced in Bucharest and Bangalore.

[Uncle fester]

But surely it’s not something we will be able to avoid. And it’s better to catch it now than later whilst vaccinations are most effective, and not to mention to catch it before the next dangerous strain inevitably comes along - and take the edge of that one.

Shooting anti vaxxers sounds like one way to keep the covid linked deaths lower.

The harder we make it for the virus to spread, the more likely it is to mutate to a milder form.

[Sandstorm]

But surely it’s not something we will be able to avoid. And it’s better to catch it now than later whilst vaccinations are most effective, and not to mention to catch it before the next dangerous strain inevitably comes along - and take the edge of that one.

Shooting anti vaxxers sounds like one way to keep the covid linked deaths lower.

The harder we make it for the virus to spread, the more likely it is to mutate to a milder form.

Norovirus has been rampant in England in the last decade and neither my wife or I have had it. No reason why everyone will inevitably catch Covid.

[Ymx]

But surely it’s not something we will be able to avoid. And it’s better to catch it now than later whilst vaccinations are most effective, and not to mention to catch it before the next dangerous strain inevitably comes along - and take the edge of that one.

Shooting anti vaxxers sounds like one way to keep the covid linked deaths lower.

The harder we make it for the virus to spread, the more likely it is to mutate to a milder form.

Hmmm, I’m not sure that is based on any science I’ve heard. But ping a link through.

In fact, the opposite happened with the Kent strain and then the Indian strain, whilst the world was locked down. Survival of the fittest saw to these strains taking over their respective predecessors. The ones able to survive and flourish effectively in a more locked down state.

In terms of mild/dangerous, the single most important factor here is in relation to the state of the human immune system response. And what it has previously battled and recognises.

[tabascoboy]

At this rate it'll be a long time to say things are getting back to normal, when there are still "hot-spots" springing up here there and everywhere especially when a majority remain unvaccinated for whatever reason

Covid: Moscow shops and restaurants shut in partial lockdown

Shops, restaurants and schools have shut in Moscow in a partial lockdown, as Russia battles record Covid deaths and infections. Only essential shops like supermarkets and pharmacies are allowed to open in the capital, while food outlets are only providing takeaways.

Authorities have also given workers across Russia nine days off from Saturday in a bid to curb infections. Russia has reported a record 1,159 deaths from Covid in the past 24 hours. The official data also reveals 40,096 new infections in 85 regions of Russia - another record.

Russia's overall Covid death toll in the pandemic is officially more than 230,000, the highest in Europe and one of the highest in the world. Russia's last major lockdown was in May-June 2020.

The proportion of Russia's population fully vaccinated remains low - on 23 October it was 32.8%, Our World in Data reports. Most European countries have much higher rates. Despite an intensive state vaccination drive, many Russians remain suspicious of the Sputnik V vaccine, which is internationally recognised as an effective shield against Covid.

[JM2K6]

But surely it’s not something we will be able to avoid. And it’s better to catch it now than later whilst vaccinations are most effective, and not to mention to catch it before the next dangerous strain inevitably comes along - and take the edge of that one.

Shooting anti vaxxers sounds like one way to keep the covid linked deaths lower.

The harder we make it for the virus to spread, the more likely it is to mutate to a milder form.

Norovirus has been rampant in England in the last decade and neither my wife or I have had it. No reason why everyone will inevitably catch Covid.

It's a winter virus that doesn't last as long as Covid, isn't as infectious as Covid, and has nowhere near the numbers of people infected as Covid. Not sure it's a great comparison.

[dpedin]

But surely it’s not something we will be able to avoid. And it’s better to catch it now than later whilst vaccinations are most effective, and not to mention to catch it before the next dangerous strain inevitably comes along - and take the edge of that one.

Shooting anti vaxxers sounds like one way to keep the covid linked deaths lower.

There is no scenario where 'catching' covid is a better way of achieving a level of immunity inn the community than being vaccinated. Any strategy which involves deliberately letting a section of society 'catch' a relatively unknown virus with a death rate of 7-10 times that of flu and as yet not fully understood long term health implications is criminal.Letting it 'burn through' the young isnt a PH strategy it is an abdication of the basic priority of a Gov to protect its people.

We know that even those double vaccinated can still catch or transmit covid but we also know they are many times less likely to be hospitalised or die. We also know that they are also far less likely to transmit covid and over a shorter period of time. Boosters will reduce these even further. The sensible strategy would have been to wait until we had a very high level of vaccination, including school kids, before we loosened PH mitigations and then only do that in a controlled way. It would also make more sense to do this in spring once we have got over what looks like a shitty winter coming up.

Longer term we need to drive down community transmission of covid by using the standard PH mitigations, continue to boost or adapt vaccinations if required, have locally based PH teams in place to test, track and trace local outbreaks and improve various issues like ventilation on crowded areas much of which could be simple and low cost solutions ie portable HEPA filters.

[Ymx]

I was not saying people catch it instead of being vaccinated. Not sure if that was a deliberately mis construing my words, or not? Though I was pretty clear, I thought.

But those vaccinated are also catching it (delta) too. And it will continue to propagate through the vaccinated country until the next strain does after which.

I think it is fine to return to normal for those who’ve been double vaccinated. And like I say it’s probably better for you and me (against future unstoppable strains) to also have our bodies fend off the delta strain first.

[dpedin]

Immensa Labs ... doesn't get any better!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 45785.html

[Sandstorm]

The harder we make it for the virus to spread, the more likely it is to mutate to a milder form.

Norovirus has been rampant in England in the last decade and neither my wife or I have had it. No reason why everyone will inevitably catch Covid.

It's a winter virus that doesn't last as long as Covid, isn't as infectious as Covid, and has nowhere near the numbers of people infected as Covid. Not sure it's a great comparison.

It’s been around for 10 times longer too. It’s a valid example.

[JM2K6]

Norovirus has been rampant in England in the last decade and neither my wife or I have had it. No reason why everyone will inevitably catch Covid.

It's a winter virus that doesn't last as long as Covid, isn't as infectious as Covid, and has nowhere near the numbers of people infected as Covid. Not sure it's a great comparison.

It’s been around for 10 times longer too. It’s a valid example.

It really isn't. All it really shows is you don't understand how contagious Covid is compared to bog standard stuff.

[Sandstorm]

It's a winter virus that doesn't last as long as Covid, isn't as infectious as Covid, and has nowhere near the numbers of people infected as Covid. Not sure it's a great comparison.

It’s been around for 10 times longer too. It’s a valid example.

It really isn't. All it really shows is you don't understand how contagious Covid is compared to bog standard stuff.

Yeah, I’m brand new off the boat about Covid.

[Calculon]

But surely it’s not something we will be able to avoid. And it’s better to catch it now than later whilst vaccinations are most effective, and not to mention to catch it before the next dangerous strain inevitably comes along - and take the edge of that one.

Shooting anti vaxxers sounds like one way to keep the covid linked deaths lower.

The harder we make it for the virus to spread, the more likely it is to mutate to a milder form.

Norovirus has been rampant in England in the last decade and neither my wife or I have had it. No reason why everyone will inevitably catch Covid.

Something like 35 percent of norovirus infection are asymptotic and of the rest many only have mild symptoms so not sure how you can be confident that you and your wife have never had it. Anyway, I don't think the fecal oral route has the same infectious potential as an airborne route which is why you get norovirus outbreaks rather than norovirus pandemics. Of course norovirus is still highly infectious and if you live in a third world shithole where they don't bother treating the sewage you've got an excellent chance of getting infected

[Sandstorm]

Of course norovirus is still highly infectious and if you live in a third world shithole where they don't bother treating the sewage you've got an excellent chance of getting infected

Oh, post-Brexit I am sure my chances are going to increase a lot.

[fishfoodie]

Of course norovirus is still highly infectious and if you live in a third world shithole where they don't bother treating the sewage you've got an excellent chance of getting infected

Oh, post-Brexit I am sure my chances are going to increase a lot.

Are they at least going to check those; tens of thousands of Dutch shite; before they start spraying it across those; "Green & Pleasant Lands" ?

You wouldn't think, that with the Tories in power, there was any need to import, even more shit into the Country.

[Rinkals]

The harder we make it for the virus to spread, the more likely it is to mutate to a milder form.

Norovirus has been rampant in England in the last decade and neither my wife or I have had it. No reason why everyone will inevitably catch Covid.

Something like 35 percent of norovirus infection are asymptotic and of the rest many only have mild symptoms so not sure how you can be confident that you and your wife have never had it. Anyway, I don't think the fecal oral route has the same infectious potential as an airborne route which is why you get norovirus outbreaks rather than norovirus pandemics. Of course norovirus is still highly infectious and if you live in a third world shithole where they don't bother treating the sewage you've got an excellent chance of getting infected

You mean a third world country that dumps untreated sewage in rivers?

oh.... wait.....

[Edit: Sorry, the same point has already been made.]

[Uncle fester]

But surely it’s not something we will be able to avoid. And it’s better to catch it now than later whilst vaccinations are most effective, and not to mention to catch it before the next dangerous strain inevitably comes along - and take the edge of that one.

Shooting anti vaxxers sounds like one way to keep the covid linked deaths lower.

The harder we make it for the virus to spread, the more likely it is to mutate to a milder form.

Hmmm, I’m not sure that is based on any science I’ve heard. But ping a link through.

In fact, the opposite happened with the Kent strain and then the Indian strain, whilst the world was locked down. Survival of the fittest saw to these strains taking over their respective predecessors. The ones able to survive and flourish effectively in a more locked down state.

In terms of mild/dangerous, the single most important factor here is in relation to the state of the human immune system response. And what it has previously battled and recognises.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... dApp_Other

Writer has written the definitive history on 1918 epidemic and the lessons of that are relevant here.

Vaccination is great but if we really want to beat Covid, we need to maintain stuff like mask wearing and social distancing so that we don't end up having to go for full lockdowns later.

[Ymx]

Interesting

“ The tragedy of that situation, in other words, is that humans did the virus’s work for it. It had no need to dial down its virulence to keep spreading – in fact it was in its evolutionary interests to dial it up and transmit even faster, since there was no cost to doing so. ”

That’s the core of the theory.

[Ymx]

Doesn’t quite seem like the situation though. In locked down countries it’s not the weaker variants prevailing.

Eg NZ

[Ymx]

This virus is so unique in that it’s crazily transmissible off the scale. But the other factor making it so dangerous is that to the unvaccinated it has such a variable effect over the population. No symptoms, to mild, to death. But it’s such a strong spread against all of these categories that makes the disease more transmissible. It doesn’t need to dial down, as it’s effect varies so much person to person !!

[Uncle fester]

It's a bit more than just a theory.

"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... dApp_Other"

[Uncle fester]

Doesn’t quite seem like the situation though. In locked down countries it’s not the weaker variants prevailing.

Eg NZ

Depends how you define "weaker".
The more transmittable variants are prevailing. Lethality is approx the same.

It's natural selection at work and we can influence the pressures that push the development in a certain direction.

Where I'm going with this is that letting it run through the population as you suggest, increases the risk of current vaccines becoming obsolete.

[Ymx]

But that was the crux of that piece. It suggested trade off between transmissible and lethalness for viruses.

That’s not the case with covid as you say. What we are seeing is not that. The virus has not dialled down its lethalness (except via exposure and better treatment of course), because it hasn’t needed to.

[Ymx]

Where I'm going with this is that letting it run through the population as you suggest, increases the risk of current vaccines becoming obsolete.

This part is true, and will happen in the world regardless. But if we don’t get regular exposure and immunity top ups, it will be more a problem for us when new strains inevitably continue to hit us.

[Uncle fester]

The reason it's more transmittable than previous SARS is that it can infect both upper and lower respiratory systems and this is also why it has a range of symptoms.

MERS tends to be lower respiratory system only which makes it more lethal but harder to transmit. Common colds and seasonal flus tend to be upper respiratory system only so they transmit quite easily but don't kill you as much.

Every time the virus replicates, there's a chance of mutation. If we "give" it more hosts in an effort to let it "run through" the population, we are giving it many more replications and thus more chances to mutate and therefore more variants.

From there, letting it run loose means natural selection decides which variant becomes dominant. We make it harder to spread, it means the virus has to get sneakier.

[Ymx]

On PR, this discussion would have resulted in hand bags and insults. That’s why I like this place

[fishfoodie]

On PR, this discussion would have resulted in hand bags and insults. That’s why I like this place

Agreed !

One thing that concerns me about the whole; "it won't migrate to a more lethal variety; because that's not how selection works"; is that you have a virus like Ebola.

Some Ebola strains have lethality > 50%; the reason being, that humans aren't the viruses host; we're just collateral damage, & even if Ebola killed every human on the planet, the virus would continue to exist in whatever it's host actually is.

Covid would could do the same; & yet still exist in dozens of other species on the planet.

[Calculon]

On PR, this discussion would have resulted in hand bags and insults. That’s why I like this place

Agreed !

One thing that concerns me about the whole; "it won't migrate to a more lethal variety; because that's not how selection works"; is that you have a virus like Ebola.

Some Ebola strains have lethality > 50%; the reason being, that humans aren't the viruses host; we're just collateral damage, & even if Ebola killed every human on the planet, the virus would continue to exist in whatever it's host actually is.

Covid would could do the same; & yet still exist in dozens of other species on the planet.

the animal reservoir is a worry, and we might well see a sars cov3 in the not to distant future,. But if this sars cov 3 has the lethality of ebola, it is also likely like ebola to limit its transmissibility.

What you describe is in some ways what happened with the black death where Y pestis is also hosted by fleas,. Fortunately we don't have the same close living arrangements with fleas anymore. Interesting enough in that case humans were the original hostt and y pestis manage to mutate to be resistant to the fleas defences and use it as a vector

[Calculon]

Doesn’t quite seem like the situation though. In locked down countries it’s not the weaker variants prevailing.

Eg NZ

Depends how you define "weaker".
The more transmittable variants are prevailing. Lethality is approx the same.

It's natural selection at work and we can influence the pressures that push the development in a certain direction.

Where I'm going with this is that letting it run through the population as you suggest, increases the risk of current vaccines becoming obsolete.

It makes sense that facilitating transmission (Spanish flu example) changes the environmental conditions to allow faster transmission variants (with the byproduct of being more virulent) to predominate – and visa versa if transmission is hampered. I think the greater danger is long term hospitalized patients acting as incubators for novel strains that could be more transmissible/ more resistant to antibodies /vaccine

I think I might have linked this before

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... us-strains

[Uncle fester]

Interesting. This bit stuck out.

the longer and hotter the pandemic rages, the more chances the virus will have to devise random mutations.

We can only do so much about the length but we can do something about the temperature.

[Sandstorm]

On PR, this discussion would have resulted in hand bags and insults. That’s why I like this place

Agreed !

One thing that concerns me about the whole; "it won't migrate to a more lethal variety; because that's not how selection works"; is that you have a virus like Ebola.

Some Ebola strains have lethality > 50%; the reason being, that humans aren't the viruses host; we're just collateral damage, & even if Ebola killed every human on the planet, the virus would continue to exist in whatever it's host actually is.

Covid would could do the same; & yet still exist in dozens of other species on the planet.

Whoa whoa whoa!! Are you saying that Covid might start infecting useful animals like pigs? And cause a shortage in bacon rolls???

Jesus man, this year has been bad enough without you creating real panic!!

[fishfoodie]

On PR, this discussion would have resulted in hand bags and insults. That’s why I like this place

Agreed !

One thing that concerns me about the whole; "it won't migrate to a more lethal variety; because that's not how selection works"; is that you have a virus like Ebola.

Some Ebola strains have lethality > 50%; the reason being, that humans aren't the viruses host; we're just collateral damage, & even if Ebola killed every human on the planet, the virus would continue to exist in whatever it's host actually is.

Covid would could do the same; & yet still exist in dozens of other species on the planet.

Whoa whoa whoa!! Are you saying that Covid might start infecting useful animals like pigs? And cause a shortage in bacon rolls???

Jesus man, this year has been bad enough without you creating real panic!!

Joking aside; you'd better pray that Covid doesn't get into Pigs; because the worst thing that can happen in a Foot & Mouth outbreak; is for a piggery to get infected; because the pigs are just fine; but, they are perfect engines for creating massive, massive amounts of the virus

[Sandstorm]

Agreed !

One thing that concerns me about the whole; "it won't migrate to a more lethal variety; because that's not how selection works"; is that you have a virus like Ebola.

Some Ebola strains have lethality > 50%; the reason being, that humans aren't the viruses host; we're just collateral damage, & even if Ebola killed every human on the planet, the virus would continue to exist in whatever it's host actually is.

Covid would could do the same; & yet still exist in dozens of other species on the planet.

Whoa whoa whoa!! Are you saying that Covid might start infecting useful animals like pigs? And cause a shortage in bacon rolls???

Jesus man, this year has been bad enough without you creating real panic!!

Joking aside; you'd better pray that Covid doesn't get into Pigs; because the worst thing that can happen in a Foot & Mouth outbreak; is for a piggery to get infected; because the pigs are just fine; but, they are perfect engines for creating massive, massive amounts of the virus

Joking aside? If you keep beating up this wonderful, magical creature then you and I are going to have a problem!

[Ovals]

Got my Booster booked for the 4th Nov

[Sandstorm]

Got my Booster booked for the 4th Nov