NPR

Biffer wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 7:40 pm Yeah, I was first asked if I minded if they asked.

The reason for the White British / White Scottish thing is to prevent arguments. You’d get people insisting they weren’t that if you only used one of them.

Ymx wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 7:43 pm

Biffer wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 7:40 pm Yeah, I was first asked if I minded if they asked.

The reason for the White British / White Scottish thing is to prevent arguments. You’d get people insisting they weren’t that if you only used one of them.

A stealth check by Sturgeon to test the waters on a referendum?

Biffer wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:04 pm

Ymx wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 7:43 pm

Biffer wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 7:40 pm Yeah, I was first asked if I minded if they asked.

The reason for the White British / White Scottish thing is to prevent arguments. You’d get people insisting they weren’t that if you only used one of them.

A stealth check by Sturgeon to test the waters on a referendum?

Nah, genuinely if you only gave people one option or the other you’d end up with the vaccination staff having folk shouting at them, from whichever side depending on what option you didn’t have.

Ymx wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:05 pm I never realised until just now that London is terrible in terms of vaccine uptake. Over a third not at all vaccinated.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
Type in area names.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 76746.html

Biffer wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:02 am

Ymx wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:05 pm I never realised until just now that London is terrible in terms of vaccine uptake. Over a third not at all vaccinated.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
Type in area names.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 76746.html

That's a third of eligible people as well. Overall it's over 40% of people in London who've not even had one vaccination.

petej wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:59 am Some positive work from the Gupta Lab Cambridge @GuptaR_lab that omicron is worse at inducing cell to cell fusion than delta and worse spike entry efficiency into lung organoids.
https://t.co/EzbfHMStTt

Sandstorm wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:37 am

Biffer wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:02 am

Ymx wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:05 pm I never realised until just now that London is terrible in terms of vaccine uptake. Over a third not at all vaccinated.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
Type in area names.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 76746.html

That's a third of eligible people as well. Overall it's over 40% of people in London who've not even had one vaccination.

*dons fire-proof suit*

If Boris was mayor this wouldn’t happen!!

Calculon wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:45 am

petej wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:59 am Some positive work from the Gupta Lab Cambridge @GuptaR_lab that omicron is worse at inducing cell to cell fusion than delta and worse spike entry efficiency into lung organoids.
https://t.co/EzbfHMStTt

Ties into data from Gauteng hospitals where far fewer covid patients required oxygen. The Omicron wave is proving to be a damp squib as far as Gauteng is concerned, excess deaths has hardly moved.




With millions of Gautengteners heading to the coastal provinces for holiday/visiting relatives we should soon see infections shoot up in KZN, Western and Eastern Cape. Will be interesting to see how it reflects on hospitalisations and deaths there.

tc27 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:55 pm 2 week lockdown after Christmas now widely being trailed.

Biffer wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:02 am

Ymx wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:05 pm I never realised until just now that London is terrible in terms of vaccine uptake. Over a third not at all vaccinated.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
Type in area names.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 76746.html

That's a third of eligible people as well. Overall it's over 40% of people in London who've not even had one vaccination.

Uncle fester wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:45 pm

Calculon wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:45 am

petej wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:59 am Some positive work from the Gupta Lab Cambridge @GuptaR_lab that omicron is worse at inducing cell to cell fusion than delta and worse spike entry efficiency into lung organoids.
https://t.co/EzbfHMStTt

Ties into data from Gauteng hospitals where far fewer covid patients required oxygen. The Omicron wave is proving to be a damp squib as far as Gauteng is concerned, excess deaths has hardly moved.




With millions of Gautengteners heading to the coastal provinces for holiday/visiting relatives we should soon see infections shoot up in KZN, Western and Eastern Cape. Will be interesting to see how it reflects on hospitalisations and deaths there.

Looks positive. Just need to be careful re population age distribution, etc before extrapolating the results and slapping confirmation bias on top. Would I be right in saying South African age distribution would be distinctly lower than Europe?

Ymx wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 3:27 pm Moderna jab for me. Just done.

From what I’ve read above, it’s been nice knowing you!

COVID-19: Mayor of London Sadiq Khan declares major incident over 'huge surge' of Omicron cases

The mayor of London has declared a major incident in the capital over the "huge surge" of Omicron cases and an increase in hospital admissions.

Sadiq Khan said he has been meeting with colleagues from the NHS, councils and the fire service about the rise in infections of the COVID variant, with more than 10,000 new cases reported nationwide today.

While no new measures have been announced, he said: "In the last 24 hours, we have had the largest number of new cases since the pandemic began, more than 26,000.

"Hospital admissions are going up but also staff absences are going up by massive levels, so I have taken the decision, along with our partners, to declare a major incident."

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-may ... s-12499021

Today, a new analysis suggested both that the hospitalization rate in South Africa may have been reduced by as much as 91 percent, compared to the country’s last wave, and that the death rate among those hospitalized may also have fallen by two-thirds — two points that, taken together, suggest as much as a 25-fold or even 30-fold reduction in mortality. On the same day, a report produced by the Imperial College of London suggested there was no clear indication that, among early British cases, Omicron was any less severe at all — though that analysis was based on just a few dozen cases
….



If you assume that these numbers are correct, it would mean a 30-times reduction in fatality relative to previous waves, which is really something. That brings us down to seasonal flu.

Well, it goes back to this fundamental problem. If Omicron is milder, then it will be milder everywhere, irrespective of population or irrespective of the vaccine coverage or prior infection. If it’s not particularly milder itself or only marginally so, and what we are observing here with the South African population is a reflection of the fact that essentially the entire population has been exposed or vaccinated or both, then obviously that’s not portable to any other place. It’s a really major question. And sadly, I don’t think we can extrapolate anything from South Africa, really. We don’t actually even know the vaccine status of the hospitalized.

JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 4:46 pm Always fun to see a lengthy article posted and then someone replying within a couple of minutes cherry picking some quotes from the first part of it

Here, have another one

Well, it goes back to this fundamental problem. If Omicron is milder, then it will be milder everywhere, irrespective of population or irrespective of the vaccine coverage or prior infection. If it’s not particularly milder itself or only marginally so, and what we are observing here with the South African population is a reflection of the fact that essentially the entire population has been exposed or vaccinated or both, then obviously that’s not portable to any other place. It’s a really major question. And sadly, I don’t think we can extrapolate anything from South Africa, really. We don’t actually even know the vaccine status of the hospitalized.

JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 4:46 pm Always fun to see a lengthy article posted and then someone replying within a couple of minutes cherry picking some quotes from the first part of it

Here, have another one

Well, it goes back to this fundamental problem. If Omicron is milder, then it will be milder everywhere, irrespective of population or irrespective of the vaccine coverage or prior infection. If it’s not particularly milder itself or only marginally so, and what we are observing here with the South African population is a reflection of the fact that essentially the entire population has been exposed or vaccinated or both, then obviously that’s not portable to any other place. It’s a really major question. And sadly, I don’t think we can extrapolate anything from South Africa, really. We don’t actually even know the vaccine status of the hospitalized.

JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:12 pm Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:12 pm Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:12 pm Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

Ymx wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:07 pm Well certainly the UK is in a much better place in terms of immunisation and antibodies than SA. I doubt that’s even a discussion. 90+% v 70% I think I read earlier.

The SA population median age is younger. Whilst from what I read the relevant base health levels are better in the UK.

If the difference is really 30 times in a relevant size study. Then even given the above it’s quite a stretch to say we can’t read anything in to it.

I appreciate the parallels with delta where countries (UK/US) had varying impact. But I don’t think they amounted to 30 times.

It’s almost like some people are hell bent to discard any positive news or stats. “Throw the whole lot out, look here’s a slight difference which renders all of it meaningless”. Rather than taking it as very encouraging but with expectations there will be some differences.

I almost wonder what some people are actually hoping to emerge from this? It feels like some want it to be worse. And want to stay in perpetual masked lockdown. I’m sure no one would be that messed up though.

petej wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:49 pm

JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:12 pm Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

Natural immunity varies wildly. The immune system isn't just antibodies. Really depends on success measures, for me. I don't care about cases but do care about hospitalizations, deaths etc .. if you can get loads of cases but low number needing treatment or dying then I'm happy for measures and restrictions to be lifted.

JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:12 pm Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:23 pm

Ymx wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:07 pm Well certainly the UK is in a much better place in terms of immunisation and antibodies than SA. I doubt that’s even a discussion. 90+% v 70% I think I read earlier.

The SA population median age is younger. Whilst from what I read the relevant base health levels are better in the UK.

If the difference is really 30 times in a relevant size study. Then even given the above it’s quite a stretch to say we can’t read anything in to it.

I appreciate the parallels with delta where countries (UK/US) had varying impact. But I don’t think they amounted to 30 times.

It’s almost like some people are hell bent to discard any positive news or stats. “Throw the whole lot out, look here’s a slight difference which renders all of it meaningless”. Rather than taking it as very encouraging but with expectations there will be some differences.

I almost wonder what some people are actually hoping to emerge from this? It feels like some want it to be worse. And want to stay in perpetual masked lockdown. I’m sure no one would be that messed up though.

The whole point is that it's a load of "if"s that you're treating as "definitely". You're willing to listen to someone when they mention some stats you like the sound of, but ignore them when they say we can't draw conclusions yet and that a simple comparison would be wrong.

It'll be fucking great if Omicron just isn't that bad compared to the original strain, but like they all say we're just going to have to wait and see.

It'll be fucking great if Omicron just isn't that bad compared to the original strain

Ymx wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:44 pmthe doomers are writing off strong positive indicators with a "well its different, I can't or won't read anything in to that".