NPR

dpedin wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 10:40 am

SaintK wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 9:22 am

Ymx wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:54 am https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/saji ... 75551.html

A lot of anti vax mob going to latch on to this guy.



https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dont ... -9kzfk8qs7

Watched that clip on BBC news last night, Javid was virtually speechless and the other medical staff somewhat embarrassed!!!

I am not surprised.

I have worked with and have a lot of friends who are doctors, GPs, dentists and hospital consultants. I play golf with lots of them. Doctors are just normal people who had an aptitude for academic work and did well at school and Uni exams! As a result there is the same broad range of people in the profession including some, a few, who are real ignorant, rude numpties as there are in every other profession. Whilst extremely knowledgable about their own specialties they can be very uninformed or indeed ignorant about others. Most docs know the limits of their expertise and will say so and seek advice from others but unfortunately a few are like politicians, believe their own hype and think, because they come from a privileged background in many cases, they are superior beings. These guys are the General Melchetts from Blackadder! Like the doctor in the clip these are the most dangerous ones! On the other hand some of the docs I have met have been incredibly clever and have amazed me with the astonishing things they achieve in their field ... as are some of the engineers, accountants, teachers, etc I have had the pleasure I of working with/meeting.

I've wondered, especially after becoming friends with some nurses who've complained about their doctors, if 'doctor' is a lot like politics or business CEOs where a good number are massive egoists who do it for the money and prestige before the, you know, helping people thing? I've certainly taught a few students in private schools who were 'destined' to do it (i.e. pushed into it by parents) for the honour without expressing any desire to make a difference in people's lives.

A beef I have with reporting things like the above, at least with our media, is that they seem to be including among 'healthcare workers' people like chiropractors, naturopaths, and care home employees.

Biffer wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 2:38 pm

dpedin wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 2:00 pm

Biffer wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 1:52 pm

That's because it doesn't get mentioned.

A bad winter flu season has maybe 20,000 deaths. That's 65-70 days at 300/day

We don't have 20,000 deaths due to flu. These are the numbers for deaths from flu and pneumonia - they are coded together in the death stats. Flu deaths are actually a lot smaller. Pneumonia can be caused by flu, lots will be but there are lots of other reasons why folk get pneumonia and die from it. See https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transpar ... 019and2020

Yeah, but that’s where the three hundred deaths a day figure comes from, flu and pneumonia.

Yeh but the 20k+ deaths are for both flu and pneumonia and pneumonia can be caused by a range of viral, bacterial and fungal infections. There will be a number of medical conditions for which patients will go on to develop pneumonia and possibly die from it.

The notes to the data also say that the numbers are for where flu and pneumonia were mentioned anywhere on the death certificate and not just the underlying cause of death. This will inflate the numbers - many of the number will include patients who died with pneumonia not because of it.

The true figure of death due to influenza in 2019 is probably somewhere between the 1,223 who were coded as for dying with flu and the 26,342 who died from either flu and pneumonia.

dpedin wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 5:34 pm

Biffer wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 2:38 pm

dpedin wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 2:00 pm

We don't have 20,000 deaths due to flu. These are the numbers for deaths from flu and pneumonia - they are coded together in the death stats. Flu deaths are actually a lot smaller. Pneumonia can be caused by flu, lots will be but there are lots of other reasons why folk get pneumonia and die from it. See https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transpar ... 019and2020

Yeah, but that’s where the three hundred deaths a day figure comes from, flu and pneumonia.

Yeh but the 20k+ deaths are for both flu and pneumonia and pneumonia can be caused by a range of viral, bacterial and fungal infections. There will be a number of medical conditions for which patients will go on to develop pneumonia and possibly die from it.

The notes to the data also say that the numbers are for where flu and pneumonia were mentioned anywhere on the death certificate and not just the underlying cause of death. This will inflate the numbers - many of the number will include patients who died with pneumonia not because of it.

The true figure of death due to influenza in 2019 is probably somewhere between the 1,223 who were coded as for dying with flu and the 26,342 who died from either flu and pneumonia.

You are treading on thin ice with that point. A lot of COVID patients die with pneumonia and other respiratory infections. An awful lot of COVID patients die due to co-morbidities particularly very old people or fat people or diabetic people or people with dementia. At this point with the immunity wall as it is in the UK now I suspect next winter COVID very much will be comparable to flu.

petej wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 6:53 pm

dpedin wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 5:34 pm

Biffer wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 2:38 pm

Yeah, but that’s where the three hundred deaths a day figure comes from, flu and pneumonia.

Yeh but the 20k+ deaths are for both flu and pneumonia and pneumonia can be caused by a range of viral, bacterial and fungal infections. There will be a number of medical conditions for which patients will go on to develop pneumonia and possibly die from it.

The notes to the data also say that the numbers are for where flu and pneumonia were mentioned anywhere on the death certificate and not just the underlying cause of death. This will inflate the numbers - many of the number will include patients who died with pneumonia not because of it.

The true figure of death due to influenza in 2019 is probably somewhere between the 1,223 who were coded as for dying with flu and the 26,342 who died from either flu and pneumonia.

You are treading on thin ice with that point. A lot of COVID patients die with pneumonia and other respiratory infections. An awful lot of COVID patients die due to co-morbidities particularly very old people or fat people or diabetic people or people with dementia. At this point with the immunity wall as it is in the UK now I suspect next winter COVID very much will be comparable to flu.

It is a complicated picture and I don't disagree with some of what you say but the only point I was making was about the claim of 20k+ deaths due to flu not being accurate. I was trying to show why this not be an accurate figure - I think the ONS data shows why this is the case. However all the ONS death data is wholly dependant on what individual doctors put down as underlying cause of death and other causes of death on the death certificate, they are different, as I mention in my post and as noted in the footnote to the ONS data.

I don't make any claims about the cause of death, underlying cause of death or co-morbidities of people dying with or because of covid, you do. This is a whole other discussion.

I honestly hope you are correct about next winter and covid and share some of your optimism however it all depends on what other variants of concern appear over the next 9-12 months and if they escape the vaccine and if they are more virulent. We didn't really know much about omicron 2-3 months ago and only one month ago Delta was still the dominant variant and yet Omicron is now dominant and has spread across the world very very quickly. Until we really super charge mass vaccinations across the under-developed world we are really going forward with our fingers crossed.

dpedin wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 2:00 pm

Biffer wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 1:52 pm

Ymx wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 11:55 am

I don’t recall that for some reason. 300 a day deaths?

That's because it doesn't get mentioned.

A bad winter flu season has maybe 20,000 deaths. That's 65-70 days at 300/day

We don't have 20,000 deaths due to flu. These are the numbers for deaths from flu and pneumonia - they are coded together in the death stats. Flu deaths are actually a lot smaller. Pneumonia can be caused by flu, lots will be but there are lots of other reasons why folk get pneumonia and die from it. See https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transpar ... 019and2020

The one time I know I had flu was just after Christmas 1999. According to the figures, that winter saw around 45,000 excess deaths (53,000 given the current population), and that was without routinely testing people to see if they had flu. Would be interesting to know how many had it that winter.

dpedin wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:24 pm

petej wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 6:53 pm You are treading on thin ice with that point. A lot of COVID patients die with pneumonia and other respiratory infections. An awful lot of COVID patients die due to co-morbidities particularly very old people or fat people or diabetic people or people with dementia. At this point with the immunity wall as it is in the UK now I suspect next winter COVID very much will be comparable to flu.

It is a complicated picture and I don't disagree with some of what you say but the only point I was making was about the claim of 20k+ deaths due to flu not being accurate. I was trying to show why this not be an accurate figure - I think the ONS data shows why this is the case. However all the ONS death data is wholly dependant on what individual doctors put down as underlying cause of death and other causes of death on the death certificate, they are different, as I mention in my post and as noted in the footnote to the ONS data.

I don't make any claims about the cause of death, underlying cause of death or co-morbidities of people dying with or because of covid, you do. This is a whole other discussion.

I honestly hope you are correct about next winter and covid and share some of your optimism however it all depends on what other variants of concern appear over the next 9-12 months and if they escape the vaccine and if they are more virulent. We didn't really know much about omicron 2-3 months ago and only one month ago Delta was still the dominant variant and yet Omicron is now dominant and has spread across the world very very quickly. Until we really super charge mass vaccinations across the under-developed world we are really going forward with our fingers crossed.

You've rather wonderfully posted about flu and pneumonia and not being due to flu which is funnily very similar to the argument around COVID and the whole with covid and due to covid which is what I was admittedly indirectly trying to point out. Personally, I wouldn't have debated the flu number because I know similar arguments can made around COVID. This is the very reason we have deaths within 28 days of a positive test metric because we needed something that was easy to count.

petej wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 9:05 pm

dpedin wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:24 pm

petej wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 6:53 pm You are treading on thin ice with that point. A lot of COVID patients die with pneumonia and other respiratory infections. An awful lot of COVID patients die due to co-morbidities particularly very old people or fat people or diabetic people or people with dementia. At this point with the immunity wall as it is in the UK now I suspect next winter COVID very much will be comparable to flu.

It is a complicated picture and I don't disagree with some of what you say but the only point I was making was about the claim of 20k+ deaths due to flu not being accurate. I was trying to show why this not be an accurate figure - I think the ONS data shows why this is the case. However all the ONS death data is wholly dependant on what individual doctors put down as underlying cause of death and other causes of death on the death certificate, they are different, as I mention in my post and as noted in the footnote to the ONS data.

I don't make any claims about the cause of death, underlying cause of death or co-morbidities of people dying with or because of covid, you do. This is a whole other discussion.

I honestly hope you are correct about next winter and covid and share some of your optimism however it all depends on what other variants of concern appear over the next 9-12 months and if they escape the vaccine and if they are more virulent. We didn't really know much about omicron 2-3 months ago and only one month ago Delta was still the dominant variant and yet Omicron is now dominant and has spread across the world very very quickly. Until we really super charge mass vaccinations across the under-developed world we are really going forward with our fingers crossed.

You've rather wonderfully posted about flu and pneumonia and not being due to flu which is funnily very similar to the argument around COVID and the whole with covid and due to covid which is what I was admittedly indirectly trying to point out. Personally, I wouldn't have debated the flu number because I know similar arguments can made around COVID. This is the very reason we have deaths within 28 days of a positive test metric because we needed something that was easy to count.

You've lost me now!

dpedin wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:24 pm It is a complicated picture and I don't disagree with some of what you say but the only point I was making was about the claim of 20k+ deaths due to flu not being accurate. I was trying to show why this not be an accurate figure - I think the ONS data shows why this is the case. However all the ONS death data is wholly dependant on what individual doctors put down as underlying cause of death and other causes of death on the death certificate, they are different, as I mention in my post and as noted in the footnote to the ONS data.

I don't make any claims about the cause of death, underlying cause of death or co-morbidities of people dying with or because of covid, you do. This is a whole other discussion.

I don't know if I've made the statement on here; but I've said it to friends:

"The UK is seeing lower death rates now; because they killed so many vulnerable people last year":

Whether it gets logged as; Flu, or Pneumonia; or Covid; if you're vulnerable: & no one is making any efforts to shield you; you die from whatever is going around.

Last year the UK did SFA to protect the vulnerable groups over Christmas; & they died in large numbers in the New Year; & because they can't die twice; now the UK's mortality numbers look a bit better; because they could only die the once.

I think the overall excess death figures are going to be what ultimately ends up what Governments get judged by; & it's not hard to see the 150k figure for the UK; being multiplied by x2.

That would have marginal impact. There will still be millions of vulnerable people, and of course each year thousands of people will become (more) vulnerable due to developing comorbidities.
The lower death rate is due to increased immunity and a variant causing less severe disease.

Shielding the vulnerable is fine as long as it doesn't mean locking down society.

fishfoodie wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 1:05 am

dpedin wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:24 pm It is a complicated picture and I don't disagree with some of what you say but the only point I was making was about the claim of 20k+ deaths due to flu not being accurate. I was trying to show why this not be an accurate figure - I think the ONS data shows why this is the case. However all the ONS death data is wholly dependant on what individual doctors put down as underlying cause of death and other causes of death on the death certificate, they are different, as I mention in my post and as noted in the footnote to the ONS data.

I don't make any claims about the cause of death, underlying cause of death or co-morbidities of people dying with or because of covid, you do. This is a whole other discussion.

I don't know if I've made the statement on here; but I've said it to friends:

"The UK is seeing lower death rates now; because they killed so many vulnerable people last year":

Whether it gets logged as; Flu, or Pneumonia; or Covid; if you're vulnerable: & no one is making any efforts to shield you; you die from whatever is going around.

Last year the UK did SFA to protect the vulnerable groups over Christmas; & they died in large numbers in the New Year; & because they can't die twice; now the UK's mortality numbers look a bit better; because they could only die the once.

I think the overall excess death figures are going to be what ultimately ends up what Governments get judged by; & it's not hard to see the 150k figure for the UK; being multiplied by x2.

Except we are not seeing lower deaths rates! Excess deaths - from all causes - have been higher than expected every week since July last year, by about 1,500 a week when compared to the 5 year average prior to covid.

dpedin wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 9:10 pm

petej wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 9:05 pm

dpedin wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:24 pm

It is a complicated picture and I don't disagree with some of what you say but the only point I was making was about the claim of 20k+ deaths due to flu not being accurate. I was trying to show why this not be an accurate figure - I think the ONS data shows why this is the case. However all the ONS death data is wholly dependant on what individual doctors put down as underlying cause of death and other causes of death on the death certificate, they are different, as I mention in my post and as noted in the footnote to the ONS data.

I don't make any claims about the cause of death, underlying cause of death or co-morbidities of people dying with or because of covid, you do. This is a whole other discussion.

I honestly hope you are correct about next winter and covid and share some of your optimism however it all depends on what other variants of concern appear over the next 9-12 months and if they escape the vaccine and if they are more virulent. We didn't really know much about omicron 2-3 months ago and only one month ago Delta was still the dominant variant and yet Omicron is now dominant and has spread across the world very very quickly. Until we really super charge mass vaccinations across the under-developed world we are really going forward with our fingers crossed.

You've rather wonderfully posted about flu and pneumonia and not being due to flu which is funnily very similar to the argument around COVID and the whole with covid and due to covid which is what I was admittedly indirectly trying to point out. Personally, I wouldn't have debated the flu number because I know similar arguments can made around COVID. This is the very reason we have deaths within 28 days of a positive test metric because we needed something that was easy to count.

You've lost me now!

This might help - tweet from UK National ICU Report. He goes on to say 'So Covid (excluding the crazy peaks) is double the ICU healthcare burden of pneumonia and more than ten times that of Flu. Do not compare Covid with Flu! Covid is far more destructive.'

And here we go, 25 cases of “ Deltacron” detected in Cyprus

Marylandolorian wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 1:52 pm And here we go, 25 cases of “ Deltacron” detected in Cyprus

Marylandolorian wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 1:52 pm And here we go, 25 cases of “ Deltacron” detected in Cyprus

dpedin wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 12:29 pm

dpedin wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 9:10 pm

petej wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 9:05 pm
You've rather wonderfully posted about flu and pneumonia and not being due to flu which is funnily very similar to the argument around COVID and the whole with covid and due to covid which is what I was admittedly indirectly trying to point out. Personally, I wouldn't have debated the flu number because I know similar arguments can made around COVID. This is the very reason we have deaths within 28 days of a positive test metric because we needed something that was easy to count.

You've lost me now!

This might help - tweet from UK National ICU Report. He goes on to say 'So Covid (excluding the crazy peaks) is double the ICU healthcare burden of pneumonia and more than ten times that of Flu. Do not compare Covid with Flu! Covid is far more destructive.'

My point was about convenient metrics. deaths within 28 days of a positive test is a convenient metric (though actually one that becomes less good with such a high prevalence of covid-do you know why?), combining flu and pneumonia is convenient as you aren't going to run a test for every respiratory infections on everyone that dies.

You link another spanner engaged in the twitter covid battle of fuckwits. in many ways the similarities between the covid is dreadful numpties and anti lockdown numpties is funny. They are both totally locked into their identities and belief systems with a tendency to treat variables as constants. Covids destructiveness is decreasing through increased population immunity (vaccination and/or infection) and a decrease in severity (though that could go the other way as well) which actually the ICNARC graph indicates nicely. I do love that the ICNARC graph has the omicron wave admission in December to be similar to Dec 16, 17, 18, 19 pneumonia admission it confirms that the spanner is indeed a numpty.

petej wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 6:35 pm

dpedin wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 12:29 pm

dpedin wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 9:10 pm

You've lost me now!

This might help - tweet from UK National ICU Report. He goes on to say 'So Covid (excluding the crazy peaks) is double the ICU healthcare burden of pneumonia and more than ten times that of Flu. Do not compare Covid with Flu! Covid is far more destructive.'

My point was about convenient metrics. deaths within 28 days of a positive test is a convenient metric (though actually one that becomes less good with such a high prevalence of covid-do you know why?), combining flu and pneumonia is convenient as you aren't going to run a test for every respiratory infections on everyone that dies.

You link another spanner engaged in the twitter covid battle of fuckwits. in many ways the similarities between the covid is dreadful numpties and anti lockdown numpties is funny. They are both totally locked into their identities and belief systems with a tendency to treat variables as constants. Covids destructiveness is decreasing through increased population immunity (vaccination and/or infection) and a decrease in severity (though that could go the other way as well) which actually the ICNARC graph indicates nicely. I do love that the ICNARC graph has the omicron wave admission in December to be similar to Dec 16, 17, 18, 19 pneumonia admission it confirms that the spanner is indeed a numpty.

You are correct - the impact of vaccination and boosters has so far reduced the number of admissions into ICU of patients with omicron - no one is disputing this but this really wasn't the point of the discussion! The original point was the overcounting of flu admission by combining flu and pneumonia patients. Helpfully the graphs I posted show the difference between all pneumonia admissions and flu admissions as defined by the ICNARC, based on medical coding by doctors, which I thought would be the interesting point given that this is what we were discussing? He and the ICNARC also make the point that covid, even with the omicron variant, is still much more serious than flu. If you look at both graphs, allowing for differences in scales, then this becomes clear.

I'm not really sure what it is you have about fully qualified and practicing medics and how qualified you are to call a medical consultant a 'spanner' or a 'fuckwit'? However all this guy is actually doing is copy graphs from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre Report published on 7th January ... I suppose they are all spanners and fuckwits too?

Yeah, lay off the language.

I must admit I had it in my head that omicron coupled with vaccinations had reduced covid to pretty much flu levels of deaths, if not less.

Just on the over reporting. Both are over reported. Flu being coupled with pneumonia. Covid with … well absolutely anything else they may have had (even probably flu). Even counting those catching this infectious bastard in the hospitals from staff and other patients.

The 2 measures are the 28 day one which has become less meaningful because of how infectious it is. So many incidental infections.

The other being the death certificate, but which is a several weeks out of date (not great for measuring omicron yet).

Provisional data in grey. Really old for the certified covid deaths

I guess to put it in perspective. Covid as a fraction.




It’s now very small in comparison with general weekly deaths.

Also it slightly dismisses the theory of vulnerable already dead.

Ymx wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:23 am I guess to put it in perspective. Covid as a fraction.




It’s now very small in comparison with general weekly deaths.

Also it slightly dismisses the theory of vulnerable already dead.

that graph looks extra-ordinarily unlikely !

Is the UK the only Country on the planet not seeing excess deaths ?

It’s real from ons. Scroll down page for chart.

The excess are those just above the black marker.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... cember2021

fishfoodie wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:59 am

Ymx wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:23 am I guess to put it in perspective. Covid as a fraction.




It’s now very small in comparison with general weekly deaths.

Also it slightly dismisses the theory of vulnerable already dead.

that graph looks extra-ordinarily unlikely !

Is the UK the only Country on the planet not seeing excess deaths ?

Not sure where you're getting 'no excess deaths' from on that graph. It shows 1500-2000 or so excess every week since the summer in the UK, and 5-10,000 some weeks in last winter's peak.

Biffer wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:56 am

fishfoodie wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:59 am

Ymx wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:23 am I guess to put it in perspective. Covid as a fraction.




It’s now very small in comparison with general weekly deaths.

Also it slightly dismisses the theory of vulnerable already dead.

that graph looks extra-ordinarily unlikely !

Is the UK the only Country on the planet not seeing excess deaths ?

Not sure where you're getting 'no excess deaths' from on that graph. It shows 1500-2000 or so excess every week since the summer in the UK, and 5-10,000 some weeks in last winter's peak.

What I think eyeballing that chart is particularly post vaccines is could you convince most people that that it justifies shuttering up and possibly forever closing parts of the hospitability industry, stopping swathe of amateur sports activities and closing stadiums? All whilst suppressing economic activity and printing and creating billions in extra debt to finance.

I realize the Y axis is in thousands and very death is a tragedy in its own way but the context is we live in a nation of 65 million people...at some point a decision on the cost benefit of further restrictions has to be taken.

tc27 wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:33 am

Biffer wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:56 am

fishfoodie wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:59 am

that graph looks extra-ordinarily unlikely !

Is the UK the only Country on the planet not seeing excess deaths ?

Not sure where you're getting 'no excess deaths' from on that graph. It shows 1500-2000 or so excess every week since the summer in the UK, and 5-10,000 some weeks in last winter's peak.

What I think eyeballing that chart is particularly post vaccines is could you convince most people that that it justifies shuttering up and possibly forever closing parts of the hospitability industry, stopping swathe of amateur sports activities and closing stadiums? All whilst suppressing economic activity and printing and creating billions in extra debt to finance.

I realize the Y axis is in thousands and very death is a tragedy in its own way but the context is we live in a nation of 65 million people...at some point a decision on the cost benefit of further restrictions has to be taken.

I think most people have made that decision already. I don't think I've spoken to anyone recently who hasn't been critical of the current situation in Scotland and is just moving on. My worry is if we don't open up things like hospitality and sporting events sharpish then folk are even going to start abandoning simple measures like mask wearing as they have had enough. Critical couple of weeks coming.

Slick wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:52 am

tc27 wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:33 am

Biffer wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:56 am

Not sure where you're getting 'no excess deaths' from on that graph. It shows 1500-2000 or so excess every week since the summer in the UK, and 5-10,000 some weeks in last winter's peak.

What I think eyeballing that chart is particularly post vaccines is could you convince most people that that it justifies shuttering up and possibly forever closing parts of the hospitability industry, stopping swathe of amateur sports activities and closing stadiums? All whilst suppressing economic activity and printing and creating billions in extra debt to finance.

I realize the Y axis is in thousands and very death is a tragedy in its own way but the context is we live in a nation of 65 million people...at some point a decision on the cost benefit of further restrictions has to be taken.

I think most people have made that decision already. I don't think I've spoken to anyone recently who hasn't been critical of the current situation in Scotland and is just moving on. My worry is if we don't open up things like hospitality and sporting events sharpish then folk are even going to start abandoning simple measures like mask wearing as they have had enough. Critical couple of weeks coming.

Yeah, I know for a fact that a couple of people I know are now ignoring Covid symptoms because they are so mild, not getting tested and just carrying on as normal. My own attitude is also getting towards the fuck it, just get it and crack on.

They can't keep telling us that vaccination is the way out and then walking back from that.

Slick wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:52 am folk are even going to start abandoning simple measures like mask wearing as they have had enough. Critical couple of weeks coming.

You don't want that - 2 weeks of that prior to Xmas here in NSW has caused Omicron to hit all over the country.

The Feds and State government have lost control here

tc27 wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:33 am

Biffer wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:56 am

fishfoodie wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:59 am

that graph looks extra-ordinarily unlikely !

Is the UK the only Country on the planet not seeing excess deaths ?

Not sure where you're getting 'no excess deaths' from on that graph. It shows 1500-2000 or so excess every week since the summer in the UK, and 5-10,000 some weeks in last winter's peak.

What I think eyeballing that chart is particularly post vaccines is could you convince most people that that it justifies shuttering up and possibly forever closing parts of the hospitability industry, stopping swathe of amateur sports activities and closing stadiums? All whilst suppressing economic activity and printing and creating billions in extra debt to finance.

I realize the Y axis is in thousands and very death is a tragedy in its own way but the context is we live in a nation of 65 million people...at some point a decision on the cost benefit of further restrictions has to be taken.

I was just querying fishfoodie about his interpretation of the graph.

I think we might see those restrictions lifted this week. The sporting event ones most likely, some lightening of the hospitality ones.

The alternative question is do you muller the NHS in order to keep bars and restaurants open? This balance is incredibly difficult and I don't envy anyone having to make it, because it'll never be exactly right and will elicit howls regardless of which way you go - there are plenty of people in England who have been screaming at the government for not doing enough.

If we don't have a crowd for the Calcutta Cup (and god I hope we do), I'm pretty sure we'll have one for the France game - which would be an interesting symmetry given that was one of the last big events before the first lockdown.

Edit to say I'm a bit confused about the sporting event stuff. If the problem they're actually worried about with sporting events is public transport and big crowds in bars etc, then why not regulate for public transport and bars? Seems a bit tail wagging the dog.

Blackmac wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 11:46 am

Slick wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:52 am

tc27 wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:33 am


What I think eyeballing that chart is particularly post vaccines is could you convince most people that that it justifies shuttering up and possibly forever closing parts of the hospitability industry, stopping swathe of amateur sports activities and closing stadiums? All whilst suppressing economic activity and printing and creating billions in extra debt to finance.

I realize the Y axis is in thousands and very death is a tragedy in its own way but the context is we live in a nation of 65 million people...at some point a decision on the cost benefit of further restrictions has to be taken.

I think most people have made that decision already. I don't think I've spoken to anyone recently who hasn't been critical of the current situation in Scotland and is just moving on. My worry is if we don't open up things like hospitality and sporting events sharpish then folk are even going to start abandoning simple measures like mask wearing as they have had enough. Critical couple of weeks coming.

Yeah, I know for a fact that a couple of people I know are now ignoring Covid symptoms because they are so mild, not getting tested and just carrying on as normal. My own attitude is also getting towards the fuck it, just get it and crack on.

They can't keep telling us that vaccination is the way out and then walking back from that.

There are still those who want to pursue a global elimination strategy and accuse those like you of buying into government spin with that attitude.

Well the sooner the government can lift all restrictions, the sooner they will start trumpeting about their "success" in handling the pandemic. Last thing they want is for it to drag on and their actual shortcomings, especially relating to pissing money away at friends and donors for "equipment" be fresh in the minds of everyone approaching the next election. They'll be hoping to buggery that no new strains with increased mortality rates spoil that plan.

mat the expat wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 11:51 am

Slick wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:52 am folk are even going to start abandoning simple measures like mask wearing as they have had enough. Critical couple of weeks coming.

You don't want that - 2 weeks of that prior to Xmas here in NSW has caused Omicron to hit all over the country.

The Feds and State government have lost control here

FFP2 masks or cloth masks? Cloth masks do almost nothing to stop the spread of Covid.

The Denmark and Bangladesh RCTs can tell you this.

Would be interested to see a FFP2 RCT.

tabascoboy wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:53 pm Well the sooner the government can lift all restrictions, the sooner they will start trumpeting about their "success" in handling the pandemic. Last thing they want is for it to drag on and their actual shortcomings, especially relating to pissing money away at friends and donors for "equipment" be fresh in the minds of everyone approaching the next election. They'll be hoping to buggery that no new strains with increased mortality rates spoil that plan.

Well this is true but I also think calling for further and prolonged bans on various social and economic activities just so you can criticize the government for not doing it is perverse but is the position of some critics (and I think has some bearing on decisions made in the devolved admins).

tc27 wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:44 pm

tabascoboy wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:53 pm Well the sooner the government can lift all restrictions, the sooner they will start trumpeting about their "success" in handling the pandemic. Last thing they want is for it to drag on and their actual shortcomings, especially relating to pissing money away at friends and donors for "equipment" be fresh in the minds of everyone approaching the next election. They'll be hoping to buggery that no new strains with increased mortality rates spoil that plan.

Well this is true but I also think calling for further and prolonged bans on various social and economic activities just so you can criticize the government for not doing it is perverse but is the position of some critics (and I think has some bearing on decisions made in the devolved admins).

I think there is a want to be doing something even if it isn't effective or have much impact now.

In defence of the devolved admins Johnson has frequently and often ended up doing the same but just at the last minute which is likely to be more inconvenient. For example, the post Christmas lockdown last year Wales and Scotland told people that schools would be closed with about a weeks warning while Johnson let them go back for a day then announced it the night before. Both leaders are also more inclined to be cautious than Johnson.

Dec/Jan last year (up to the school for a day fiasco) was the absolute low point for this Government. Complete shitshow, given the situation at the time and the lack of mitigation.

Agree last winter was an absolute disgrace and getting it largely right this year with vaccinations and only mild restrictions for the Omicron wave does not absolve them.

It seems strange to me that the Gov are looking at reducing PH mitigations, reducing isolation time, etc at this point in the year. We are still in the middle of winter and we know that now to the end of March is when the NHS is at its busiest and normally we have most non covid related deaths in UK. Also it is when we have the worst weather - remember the 'Beast from the East' happened at the end of Feb and into March - forcing people to socialise indoors. UK excess deaths are still running at between 1,000 - 1,500 pre week over the pre pandemic 5 year average and have been since July last year, covid hospital admissions are up 43% in last 7 days and covid numbers in hospital across the UK are still increasing - they are currently 85% of the numbers from the 1st wave. The NHS is still under severe pressure coping with covid and staff absence due to infection/isolation and every part of the NHS - A&E, urgent care and routine care is very badly affected. Paediatric covid hospital admissions in u5s are increasing markedly at the moment. We know that Omicron is milder than Delta but it is not that much milder than previous variants and reinfections are higher. Whilst we have had a hugely successful vaccination programme which has prevented serious illness and ICU admissions for the vaccinated we still have 5.5m unvaccinated over 12s and 9.5m unvaccinated kids.

Surely the Gov messaging should be that we need to continue to try and manage infections and cases by the simple PH mitigations of mask wearing, testing, distancing, etc to try and stop the NHS being overwhelmed over next few weeks and to push even harder on the vaccinations and boosters to drive down the 15m unvaccinated even further and that means vaccinating the 5-12 year olds as they are in the US. It should really be about one big push up to Easter to try and build the 'shield of vaccination' as the Gov like to describe it. It just seems daft to me to now send out the wrong messaging when we are still in the middle of the storm and when we have come so far and got so close to the levels of vaccination we want and need.

As said above folk are hearing what they want to hear from the current Gov messaging 'omicron is mild', 'we need to move to covid being endemic', 'the NHS is coping', 'we should move to 5 days isolation', etc and have decided, wrongly, that the pandemic is over. Unfortunately I seem to remember we have been here before ... who remembers 'Eat out to help out' or 'Freedom Day'? My fear is that all this will lead to more cases, more hospitalisations, more pressure on the NHS over the next few weeks and months and perhaps even more restrictions. It all sounds like Boris and his ERG mates have just got bored with it all now and can't be bothered to finish the job properly.

Biffer wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:21 pm

tc27 wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:33 am

Biffer wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:56 am

Not sure where you're getting 'no excess deaths' from on that graph. It shows 1500-2000 or so excess every week since the summer in the UK, and 5-10,000 some weeks in last winter's peak.

What I think eyeballing that chart is particularly post vaccines is could you convince most people that that it justifies shuttering up and possibly forever closing parts of the hospitability industry, stopping swathe of amateur sports activities and closing stadiums? All whilst suppressing economic activity and printing and creating billions in extra debt to finance.

I realize the Y axis is in thousands and very death is a tragedy in its own way but the context is we live in a nation of 65 million people...at some point a decision on the cost benefit of further restrictions has to be taken.

I was just querying fishfoodie about his interpretation of the graph.

I think we might see those restrictions lifted this week. The sporting event ones most likely, some lightening of the hospitality ones.

The alternative question is do you muller the NHS in order to keep bars and restaurants open? This balance is incredibly difficult and I don't envy anyone having to make it, because it'll never be exactly right and will elicit howls regardless of which way you go - there are plenty of people in England who have been screaming at the government for not doing enough.

If we don't have a crowd for the Calcutta Cup (and god I hope we do), I'm pretty sure we'll have one for the France game - which would be an interesting symmetry given that was one of the last big events before the first lockdown.

Edit to say I'm a bit confused about the sporting event stuff. If the problem they're actually worried about with sporting events is public transport and big crowds in bars etc, then why not regulate for public transport and bars? Seems a bit tail wagging the dog.

I agree about the sporting events - open air attendance for even big crowds is not apparently a big covid risk at all but the transport and bars, etc are. Regulating transport and bars etc would allow crowds in the events and that would seem to be a sensible option. I would have thought non mask wearing at an indoor snooker event is a much higher risk?

Partygate latest.

Margin__Walker wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 5:57 pm Partygate latest.

Bring your own booze? How cheap is our Prime Minister!?

Ymx wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:39 am It’s real from ons. Scroll down page for chart.

The excess are those just above the black marker.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... cember2021

I'll blame a weekend brain, & not the bottle of red

robmatic wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:01 pm

Margin__Walker wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 5:57 pm Partygate latest.

Bring your own booze? How cheap is our Prime Minister!?

He is very financially irresponsible, has a young wife to keep, no10 is a dump and she has expensive tastes so he can't be expected to supply drink as well.