NPR

Biffer wrote: Thu Feb 03, 2022 1:53 pm

CM11 wrote: Thu Feb 03, 2022 1:28 pm Sorry, we're on the same page. Didn't I say that already though?

Aye we are

Just backing you up

JM2K6 wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:22 pm

CM11 wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:14 pm

troglodiet wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 5:06 pm

Depending on who you ask, that post falls nicely into the "misinfo" category too.

The official right answer is that you MUST consult a doctor, who will advise you how and with what to treat the disease, based on the severity of your illness, your medical history, and other factors such as co-morbidities.

If you were Jimmy Dore, Joe Rogan, Russell Brand, Dave Rubin or a million other content creators, you could easily have been accused of misinformation, as some idiots may think you're advising against any medical intervention.

It's a fine line between opinion and disinformation these days.

I'm trying to figure out if you're being satirical or are actually serious? I don't have a handle on your covid persona.

He believes this shit.

It's odd.

The very same people who accuse Government of being incompetent are saying that they are capable of implementing a vast and complicated conspiracy to enslave, track with microchips or cull the entire human race.

I use the term Government as a general term because it appears that all Governments are unified and in cahoots.

Rinkals wrote: Fri Feb 04, 2022 8:20 am

JM2K6 wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:22 pm

CM11 wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:14 pm

I'm trying to figure out if you're being satirical or are actually serious? I don't have a handle on your covid persona.

He believes this shit.

It's odd.

The very same people who accuse Government of being incompetent are saying that they are capable of implementing a vast and complicated conspiracy to enslave, track with microchips or cull the entire human race.

I use the term Government as a general term because it appears that all Governments are unified and in cahoots.

If you follow this kind of shite to its logical conclusion the Cold War and both World Wars were staged events and everyone who died was an actor.

Biffer wrote: Fri Feb 04, 2022 8:42 am

Rinkals wrote: Fri Feb 04, 2022 8:20 am

JM2K6 wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:22 pm

He believes this shit.

It's odd.

The very same people who accuse Government of being incompetent are saying that they are capable of implementing a vast and complicated conspiracy to enslave, track with microchips or cull the entire human race.

I use the term Government as a general term because it appears that all Governments are unified and in cahoots.

If you follow this kind of shite to its logical conclusion the Cold War and both World Wars were staged events and everyone who died was an actor.

Don't fuckin start!

You know that we are all lying in pods of green goo with a cable coming out of the back of our necks, right? This is all a computer program and nothing is real...

As I had thought, this likely to be brought in earlier.

But Scotland. I imagine there will be protests at prolonged continuation??

Covid: Self-isolation law could be scrapped in England this month


By Francesca Gillett & Joseph Lee
BBC News
Published1 hour agocommentsComments
Share
Related Topics
Coronavirus pandemic

Media caption,
Watch the PM tell MPs that he intends to end the remaining Covid restrictions in England “a full month early”

All remaining Covid restrictions in England - including the legal rule to self-isolate - could end later this month, Boris Johnson has said.

Under the current rules, anyone who tests positive must self-isolate for at least five full days.

The current restrictions are due to expire on 24 March.
But Mr Johnson told MPs he expected the last domestic rules would end early as long as the positive trends in the data continued.

He said he intended to return after parliamentary recess - which runs from Thursday to 21 February - to outline the government's strategy for living with Covid.
"It is my intention to return on the first day after the half-term recess to present our strategy for living with Covid," Mr Johnson said at the start of Prime Minister's Questions.

"Provided the current encouraging trends in the data continue, it is my expectation that we will be able to end the last domestic restrictions - including the legal requirement to self-isolate if you test positive - a full month early."

The law will be replaced with guidance, Downing Street said - and for example people will be urged not to go to work if they have Covid.

Back in January, Mr Johnson said he expected the restrictions would end for good when they expired on 24 March - and hinted they could be abolished sooner.

In contrast, the Scottish government's remaining Covid powers are set to be extended until 24 September, as legislation making face coverings mandatory and requiring vaccine passports in some settings was due to expire at the end of the month.

Announcing the extension, Deputy First Minister John Swinney said it was important to keep options on the table, but he also stressed it did not mean curbs would definitely be in force until then.

What Covid rules remain across the UK?
How are travel rules being relaxed?
When do you need to self-isolate?

Labour's shadow health secretary Wes Streeting said the prime minister's announcement was merely "a series of throwaway remarks designed to dig him out of a political hole, with absolutely no plan to back it up", following a series of political controversies and criticism of parties held at No 10 during lockdown.
Mr Streeting told the BBC the government needed a "real plan for living well with Covid", adding Labour had published its own proposal - including provision for better sick pay and improved testing - and the prime minister was "welcome to nick it".

Downing Street also suggested there could be an update on the remaining travel rules at the same time when Mr Johnson sets out the strategy for living with Covid later this month.

Asked if the remaining travel rules would remain in place until the end of March, a spokesman said "we will obviously make a decision when we get to that stage".

I have to say however, that I am pretty sure the number of reported cases is not correct. It’s much lower now because people are just managing it themselves with 5 days and lat flow tests.

The law will be replaced with guidance, Downing Street said - and for example people will be urged not to go to work if they have Covid.

Yeah that'll help employees resist bosses who couldn't give a flying fuck about their workers.

Ymx wrote: Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:42 pm As I had thought, this likely to be brought in earlier.

But Scotland. I imagine there will be protests at prolonged continuation??

Covid: Self-isolation law could be scrapped in England this month


By Francesca Gillett & Joseph Lee
BBC News
Published1 hour agocommentsComments
Share
Related Topics
Coronavirus pandemic

Media caption,
Watch the PM tell MPs that he intends to end the remaining Covid restrictions in England “a full month early”

All remaining Covid restrictions in England - including the legal rule to self-isolate - could end later this month, Boris Johnson has said.

Under the current rules, anyone who tests positive must self-isolate for at least five full days.

The current restrictions are due to expire on 24 March.
But Mr Johnson told MPs he expected the last domestic rules would end early as long as the positive trends in the data continued.

He said he intended to return after parliamentary recess - which runs from Thursday to 21 February - to outline the government's strategy for living with Covid.
"It is my intention to return on the first day after the half-term recess to present our strategy for living with Covid," Mr Johnson said at the start of Prime Minister's Questions.

"Provided the current encouraging trends in the data continue, it is my expectation that we will be able to end the last domestic restrictions - including the legal requirement to self-isolate if you test positive - a full month early."

The law will be replaced with guidance, Downing Street said - and for example people will be urged not to go to work if they have Covid.

Back in January, Mr Johnson said he expected the restrictions would end for good when they expired on 24 March - and hinted they could be abolished sooner.

In contrast, the Scottish government's remaining Covid powers are set to be extended until 24 September, as legislation making face coverings mandatory and requiring vaccine passports in some settings was due to expire at the end of the month.

Announcing the extension, Deputy First Minister John Swinney said it was important to keep options on the table, but he also stressed it did not mean curbs would definitely be in force until then.

What Covid rules remain across the UK?
How are travel rules being relaxed?
When do you need to self-isolate?

Labour's shadow health secretary Wes Streeting said the prime minister's announcement was merely "a series of throwaway remarks designed to dig him out of a political hole, with absolutely no plan to back it up", following a series of political controversies and criticism of parties held at No 10 during lockdown.
Mr Streeting told the BBC the government needed a "real plan for living well with Covid", adding Labour had published its own proposal - including provision for better sick pay and improved testing - and the prime minister was "welcome to nick it".

Downing Street also suggested there could be an update on the remaining travel rules at the same time when Mr Johnson sets out the strategy for living with Covid later this month.

Asked if the remaining travel rules would remain in place until the end of March, a spokesman said "we will obviously make a decision when we get to that stage".

Nah, we don't have such a high proportion of arseholes and we're vocal in telling them to STFU

NZ seems to be kicking off. But I don’t blame them. I couldn’t fathom having those constraints again, just for omicron with same if not higher vaccination rates than us.

Ymx wrote: Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:59 pm NZ seems to be kicking off. But I don’t blame them. I couldn’t fathom having those constraints again, just for omicron with same if not higher vaccination rates than us.

They could do with following Denmark's lead on this.

So the FluTruxKlan in Canada continues to use children and not, as far as I know, get punished for it? As far as I know as well, we're fairly quite open and probably a few months away from reasonably (?) safe conditions. These twats just want it all their way.

For all intents and purpose in the UK now Corona Omicron is not as bad as the Flu.

C69 wrote: Fri Feb 11, 2022 8:53 pm For all intents and purpose in the UK now Corona Omicron is not as bad as the Flu.

It’s IFR is still somewhere about 60% higher, and it’s more infectious. So that’s not really true, is it?

Biffer wrote: Fri Feb 11, 2022 9:04 pm

C69 wrote: Fri Feb 11, 2022 8:53 pm For all intents and purpose in the UK now Corona Omicron is not as bad as the Flu.

It’s IFR is still somewhere about 60% higher, and it’s more infectious. So that’s not really true, is it?

Really? Is that from a PHE report?

petej wrote: Fri Feb 11, 2022 9:20 pm

Biffer wrote: Fri Feb 11, 2022 9:04 pm

C69 wrote: Fri Feb 11, 2022 8:53 pm For all intents and purpose in the UK now Corona Omicron is not as bad as the Flu.

It’s IFR is still somewhere about 60% higher, and it’s more infectious. So that’s not really true, is it?

Really? Is that from a PHE report?

Yeah, as reported by John Burn Murdoch, one of the more reliable data representation journos.

Biffer wrote: Fri Feb 11, 2022 9:23 pm

petej wrote: Fri Feb 11, 2022 9:20 pm

Biffer wrote: Fri Feb 11, 2022 9:04 pm

It’s IFR is still somewhere about 60% higher, and it’s more infectious. So that’s not really true, is it?

Really? Is that from a PHE report?

Yeah, as reported by John Burn Murdoch, one of the more reliable data representation journos.

Thanks. I've stopped reading covid stuff recently. He is very good. As is Meaghan Kall hence the PHE (or whatever it is called now) guess.

I've also stopped reading covid stuff a little while back (apart from just now), with the benefit that its meant I've stopped reading Twitter too.

https://gript.ie/sa-doctor-who-first-re ... 76aMK3RPNU

Calculon wrote: Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:46 pm I've also stopped reading covid stuff a little while back (apart from just now), with the benefit that its meant I've stopped reading Twitter too.

https://gript.ie/sa-doctor-who-first-re ... 76aMK3RPNU

Careful with that source. Gript are run by far right wing Christian fundamentalist types and are not a reliable source for anything, let alone something that pushes their agenda.

I'm not familiar with gript


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid- ... 5ET5HLIWI/


It does feel like covid is finally starting to fade into the background.

Amazing to see that in a NZ publication. That won’t qualify for the state sponsored funding programme.

In contrast a NZ poster put this one up in another thread

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/10-02 ... -it-really

Although the protests are more anti vax than anti lockdown. The tone of the article is very authoritarian demanding, mind you.

So, COVID is a bit shit, isn’t it? Felt broadly OK when I first had it, easily over the worst in a couple of days. Tested negative days 6 and 7, happy days. Roll on the next weekend and an average weekend trailing round with the kids, pushing a pushchair has wiped me out. Work hours don’t help but the physical effect 2.5 weeks on has been really surprising. An awful lot of people have now told me it took them 3-4 weeks to get back to normal.

I had a really mild dose at Christmas that was basically a bad head cold. Negative on antigen after a few days. Thought I was pretty much fully over it

A few weeks later I got a milk shake and was panting from the effort of drawing the milk shake up the straw.

Biffer wrote: Fri Feb 11, 2022 9:23 pm

petej wrote: Fri Feb 11, 2022 9:20 pm

Biffer wrote: Fri Feb 11, 2022 9:04 pm

It’s IFR is still somewhere about 60% higher, and it’s more infectious. So that’s not really true, is it?

Really? Is that from a PHE report?

Yeah, as reported by John Burn Murdoch, one of the more reliable data representation journos.

It's wholly true from a clinical management point of view

Quite a few families and people I know are refusing to lft with colds now. Just not worth the hassle. Can't quite believe how many colds we've had this winter with every bug coming back after a 18+ month restrictions limited spread of it.

With covid and worse symptoms than colds (in people not immune naive) I wonder how much is psychosomatic (pretty much impossible to unpick and a lot of people are burnt out at anyrate). Might be best not knowing you've had it.

I said I would check back in 2022 ...

Biffer wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:05 pm

_Os_ wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:37 pm

Biffer wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:07 pmWhat do you think endemic actually means?

So now we're going to discuss the dictionary, when we can all Google the meaning of words. Endemic is something that's always there.

One of the dumbest things about all this, is you can read everything from actual scientists (journal articles and full press releases, not articles in the media filtered through journalists) and just repeat what they say. And it makes no difference, you will be told you're a moron. If you advocate for maximum mitigation, which has failed, no one questions that.

This from the first page first paragraph of the MAC's assessment sent to the minister of health:
"quarantine is only likely to be effective and/or practical in certain circumstances, and is an extreme, though sometimes necessary control measure for a disease outbreak. It is one potential control measure among many options, including isolation, and widespread testing campaigns. It does not generally have a role for endemic diseases, where control is not possible".
Just this block of text has three references from different US institutions/journal articles.

The whole of page two then goes on to describe that there should be no quarantine or isolation because it's now pointless (guess why dictionary dude), concluding with: "We propose that quarantining be discontinued with immediate effect" and "we further propose that contact tracing be stopped", and "this applies equally to vaccinated and non-vaccinated contacts". Page three continues explaining those recommendations. Page four the references.

So I read the top scientists advising my government, then I'm wrong and you want me to read the dictionary to you? I don't know where to go with that.

It’s just the way you’re using endemic seems to carry some implication of lower risk, that’s why I asked. If that’s unintentional fair enough, but if you want to maintain that you’re looking at this in a purely scientific way, you need to make sure you use language better.

And I get my info from very good sources - I work for a Uk government science lab, so we’ve been getting in house briefings from leading scientists and researchers all the way through the pandemic. Head of vaccination research for the MRC, that kind of thing. Twenty or thirty minutes at a time, straight from the horses mouth, unfiltered by media. It also means I have access to medical and science journal full texts, so you can be guaranteed I’m using that as well.

So who was correct ... South Africa's MAC months back when they were ignored whilst many were going into full hysteria mode, or South Africa's MAC now quite a number of places are doing what they pointed out months ago?

dpedin wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 4:16 pmPH mitigations help avoid disease becoming endemic and then killing people! When done properly it will save lives and hold back community transmission until effective vaccines, medications, etc are developed and can be deployed. The likes of NZ, Japan and other are doing this successfully - see their covid death rates per 100k of pop - whereas the UK response has been awful - see our death rates. The difference for this has been the different PH responses.

I snipped this reply down, to just focus on the meat of it.

This is the zero Covid mantra that hasn't worked, isn't it? People in developed nations have had the chance to be vaccinated. More people in developing nations have had the option to be vaccinated, than the narrative of developing nations not having access lets on, for example Namibia vaccine stocks expiring and being destroyed because there wasn't uptake (people didn't assess the Covid risk as high). My experience with the vaccines is getting double jabbed asap. Then requesting to get a booster asap, being told I was too young. Then everyone shitting themselves in hysteria about Omicron and being requested to get a booster, then being told I could not get a booster because I had Covid too recently and therefore didn't qualify. Then just deciding this had all become a bit stupid and not caring.

NZ and Japan were never valid comparisons to the UK. The UK is deeply integrated into Europe's regional economy (even with Brexit that's still the case), the UK is also a hub for Commonwealth countries (especially India/Pakistan/Bangladesh) and their interactions with Europe, there's a massive movement of people between the UK/London and elsewhere. A lot of the UK's economic strength is based on this. NZ and Japan aren't like this, Japan has a large tourism industry they decided to shutter and is culturally completely different to anywhere outside east Asia, NZ is a geographically isolated place with a much smaller population and economy. People basing their thinking on some very fringe cases like this, ended up taking bad positions (that they were/are almost religiously attached to and cannot be talked down from). The difference between the UK and Japan or NZ, is not how and when they did lockdowns, it's that they're completely different places.

As for the UK's response. If you go back and look at the original Neil Ferguson models. Mitigation much more mild than eventually happened, was supposed to reduce deaths from 250k to 50k (from memory, but it was in that ballpark). Everything the UK did was far more extreme and for longer than was originally planned for. It's obvious the entire thing has become hopelessly politicised, people demand Johnson lockdown, and when he does it's too late, and when he doesn't he's a killer. Some people seem to have wanted a two year long lockdown and the torching of the UK economy. There was a lot of hysteria in June/July last year about an imminent wave of death and the need to lockdown, same again in November/December, Johnson (or whatever the dynamics are within the Tory leadership) was correct to not lockdown both times. The NHS backlog that lockdowns have produced will likely end up killing a lot of people who shouldn't have died, and endemic Covid will still be a fact.

Public health measures (ie lockdowns of some soft or hard variety) and aiming for zero Covid, just means something that's unwinnable never ends. I'm happy there's been movement globally towards the MAC's position back in mid December (including in NZ seeing as you mentioned them).

My daughter (triple vaxxed) and 2 of my Grandaughters are currently ill with Covid and finding it most umpleasant. It's the 2nd time for my eldest Grandaughter in 3 months - 1st time around she barely noticed she had it, this time she's feeling much more poorly.

petej wrote: Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:15 pm Quite a few families and people I know are refusing to lft with colds now. Just not worth the hassle. Can't quite believe how many colds we've had this winter with every bug coming back after a 18+ month restrictions limited spread of it.

With covid and worse symptoms than colds (in people not immune naive) I wonder how much is psychosomatic (pretty much impossible to unpick and a lot of people are burnt out at anyrate). Might be best not knowing you've had it.

It’s as I suggested, id say the true number of infections is literally off the scale. Some just doing LFT and isolating, not reporting, and many just ignoring the symptoms knowing it will pass quickly.

The only thing I’m concerned with is watching the excess death rate. Since the whole deaths with covid vs deaths from covid data reporting problem.

And it looks absolutely fine with “Omicron”, as was reported by SA (yet ignored). This also goes for the Sequel “Omicron 2: Return of the S gene”.

The UK govt contributed to the hysteria in order to push through the boosters they’d ordered. Not to mention everything that SAGE reported.

Yet here we are, about to fully open up …

Ymx wrote: Sun Feb 13, 2022 10:46 am

petej wrote: Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:15 pm Quite a few families and people I know are refusing to lft with colds now. Just not worth the hassle. Can't quite believe how many colds we've had this winter with every bug coming back after a 18+ month restrictions limited spread of it.

With covid and worse symptoms than colds (in people not immune naive) I wonder how much is psychosomatic (pretty much impossible to unpick and a lot of people are burnt out at anyrate). Might be best not knowing you've had it.

It’s as I suggested, id say the true number of infections is literally off the scale. Some just doing LFT and isolating, not reporting, and many just ignoring the symptoms knowing it will pass quickly.

The only thing I’m concerned with is watching the excess death rate. Since the whole deaths with covid vs deaths from covid data reporting problem.

And it looks absolutely fine with “Omicron”, as was reported by SA (yet ignored). This also goes for the Sequel “Omicron 2: Return of the S gene”.

The UK govt contributed to the hysteria in order to push through the boosters they’d ordered. Not to mention everything that SAGE reported.

Yet here we are, about to fully open up …

About to? Aren't we fully open already?

Only when isolation requirement goes.

_Os_ wrote: Sat Feb 12, 2022 10:36 pm I said I would check back in 2022 ...

Biffer wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:05 pm

_Os_ wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:37 pm
So now we're going to discuss the dictionary, when we can all Google the meaning of words. Endemic is something that's always there.

One of the dumbest things about all this, is you can read everything from actual scientists (journal articles and full press releases, not articles in the media filtered through journalists) and just repeat what they say. And it makes no difference, you will be told you're a moron. If you advocate for maximum mitigation, which has failed, no one questions that.

This from the first page first paragraph of the MAC's assessment sent to the minister of health:
"quarantine is only likely to be effective and/or practical in certain circumstances, and is an extreme, though sometimes necessary control measure for a disease outbreak. It is one potential control measure among many options, including isolation, and widespread testing campaigns. It does not generally have a role for endemic diseases, where control is not possible".
Just this block of text has three references from different US institutions/journal articles.

The whole of page two then goes on to describe that there should be no quarantine or isolation because it's now pointless (guess why dictionary dude), concluding with: "We propose that quarantining be discontinued with immediate effect" and "we further propose that contact tracing be stopped", and "this applies equally to vaccinated and non-vaccinated contacts". Page three continues explaining those recommendations. Page four the references.

So I read the top scientists advising my government, then I'm wrong and you want me to read the dictionary to you? I don't know where to go with that.

It’s just the way you’re using endemic seems to carry some implication of lower risk, that’s why I asked. If that’s unintentional fair enough, but if you want to maintain that you’re looking at this in a purely scientific way, you need to make sure you use language better.

And I get my info from very good sources - I work for a Uk government science lab, so we’ve been getting in house briefings from leading scientists and researchers all the way through the pandemic. Head of vaccination research for the MRC, that kind of thing. Twenty or thirty minutes at a time, straight from the horses mouth, unfiltered by media. It also means I have access to medical and science journal full texts, so you can be guaranteed I’m using that as well.

So who was correct ... South Africa's MAC months back when they were ignored whilst many were going into full hysteria mode, or South Africa's MAC now quite a number of places are doing what they pointed out months ago?

dpedin wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 4:16 pmPH mitigations help avoid disease becoming endemic and then killing people! When done properly it will save lives and hold back community transmission until effective vaccines, medications, etc are developed and can be deployed. The likes of NZ, Japan and other are doing this successfully - see their covid death rates per 100k of pop - whereas the UK response has been awful - see our death rates. The difference for this has been the different PH responses.

I snipped this reply down, to just focus on the meat of it.

This is the zero Covid mantra that hasn't worked, isn't it? People in developed nations have had the chance to be vaccinated. More people in developing nations have had the option to be vaccinated, than the narrative of developing nations not having access lets on, for example Namibia vaccine stocks expiring and being destroyed because there wasn't uptake (people didn't assess the Covid risk as high). My experience with the vaccines is getting double jabbed asap. Then requesting to get a booster asap, being told I was too young. Then everyone shitting themselves in hysteria about Omicron and being requested to get a booster, then being told I could not get a booster because I had Covid too recently and therefore didn't qualify. Then just deciding this had all become a bit stupid and not caring.

NZ and Japan were never valid comparisons to the UK. The UK is deeply integrated into Europe's regional economy (even with Brexit that's still the case), the UK is also a hub for Commonwealth countries (especially India/Pakistan/Bangladesh) and their interactions with Europe, there's a massive movement of people between the UK/London and elsewhere. A lot of the UK's economic strength is based on this. NZ and Japan aren't like this, Japan has a large tourism industry they decided to shutter and is culturally completely different to anywhere outside east Asia, NZ is a geographically isolated place with a much smaller population and economy. People basing their thinking on some very fringe cases like this, ended up taking bad positions (that they were/are almost religiously attached to and cannot be talked down from). The difference between the UK and Japan or NZ, is not how and when they did lockdowns, it's that they're completely different places.

As for the UK's response. If you go back and look at the original Neil Ferguson models. Mitigation much more mild than eventually happened, was supposed to reduce deaths from 250k to 50k (from memory, but it was in that ballpark). Everything the UK did was far more extreme and for longer than was originally planned for. It's obvious the entire thing has become hopelessly politicised, people demand Johnson lockdown, and when he does it's too late, and when he doesn't he's a killer. Some people seem to have wanted a two year long lockdown and the torching of the UK economy. There was a lot of hysteria in June/July last year about an imminent wave of death and the need to lockdown, same again in November/December, Johnson (or whatever the dynamics are within the Tory leadership) was correct to not lockdown both times. The NHS backlog that lockdowns have produced will likely end up killing a lot of people who shouldn't have died, and endemic Covid will still be a fact.

Public health measures (ie lockdowns of some soft or hard variety) and aiming for zero Covid, just means something that's unwinnable never ends. I'm happy there's been movement globally towards the MAC's position back in mid December (including in NZ seeing as you mentioned them).

Wow - what a mix of nonsense and misinterpretation of what folk have posted.

Of course NZ and Japan are different, every country is different to a greater or lesser degree and no. doubt any comparison used will be ignored by many. However they are valid examples/comparisons of the difference in PH approaches adopted by different countries and whilst it might be more or less difficult for countries to implement these types of mitigations the bottom line is that these are political decisions driven by the Govs of those countries - some value PH differently to others. They are also valid comparisons because it can show the different impact the various PH strategies can have on the populations of those countries, the covid virus doesn't discriminate. Death counts are a useful measure? I used both of Japan and NZ because they are 1st world developed island nations who could control their own borders the same way as the UK could if it wanted. The fact that the UK did not control their borders in the same way and adopted a very different set of PH mitigations was a political choice - we all picked. form the same menu of PH mitigations - and of a different PH strategy. So let's compare the success/failure of their PH strategies - UK deaths per million population - 2,373, Japan - 158, New Zealand - 10.78. If neither are an accepted comparison then lets use Germany, not an island nation but very similar in demography etc to the UK and fully integrated into the wider EU, with lots of migration from Eastern Europe, Turkey, etc - death rate per million for Germany is 1,440 per million population, about 60% of the UK's death rate.

Zero covid, or more correctly elimination strategy, is a tried and tested PH strategy for dealing with pandemic outbreaks and involves border control, rapid case detection, TT&T, improved personal hygiene, physical distancing in indoor and confined areas, a informed communication strategy to make sure people know what to do, etc. Google the NHS Measles Guidelines, which is a far more infectious disease than covid, as a good example of a plan for an elimination strategy. This is standard practice for a whole range of infectious diseases/viruses and is used for everything from embola to measles outbreaks. The aim of an elimination strategy is to control and minimise community transmission, to minimise ill health and deaths as much as possible and to get outbreaks under control. This is not to be confused, although it often is, with an eradication strategy which aims to get rid of the disease/virus completely. As far as I am aware only polio has ever been truly eradicated? From the death rates above it is blindingly obvious that those countries that have adopted an elimination strategy have been immeasurably more successful that the UK.

I am not entirely sure what a 'soft lockdown' is to be honest. We had a lock down in early 2020 but since then I don't think the UK has had a lock down since, we have however had various PH mitigations put in place when required but not a full lock down? Some sectors have had it hard and I would have been happier to see greater support for leisure, music, pubs, restaurants, etc in place. Many other sectors have made money out of the pandemic.

You also seem to be confused about the difference between PH modelling and predictions?

In terms of economic performance the UK, according to the FT analysis in January 2022 of five economic and financial indicators—gdp, household incomes, stockmarket performance, capital spending and government indebtedness—for 23 rich countries, the UK comes 22 out of 23 just above Spain although Germany and Japan are in the bottom end of the table as well. so it doesn't look like sacrificing people for economic performance really worked out does it? This isn't politicalising the issue this is saying that the UK Gov got it badly wrong and need to be held to account!

Finally as the vaccines roll out they are minimising hospitalisations and deaths, although not completely. The likes of NZ have therefore decided that now is the time to gradually lift restrictions as vaccines and medicines can do the heavy lifting. This was always the plan, go back to why have an elimination strategy, and to portray this as failure or anything else is just a nonsense. NZ has had 5% of the covid deaths the UK has had.

That’s a lot of words and I’m lost in the general discussion of the above (tldr), but surely no one is currently advocating the attempt of an elimination strategy against Omicron??

Re the measles comment

“ I've NEVER seen anything like the speed of Omicron,”Dr. Tom Frieden, a former CDC director under President Barack Obama, tweeted Monday night. “It's as infectious as measles spreading in a non-immune population, with a much shorter incubation time therefore much faster doubling time.”

Two key comments
- Comparison is to non immune measles
- Much shorter incubation time

Ymx wrote: Mon Feb 14, 2022 2:15 am That’s a lot of words and I’m lost in the general discussion of the above (tldr), but surely no one is currently advocating the attempt of an elimination strategy against Omicron??

Re the measles comment

“ I've NEVER seen anything like the speed of Omicron,”Dr. Tom Frieden, a former CDC director under President Barack Obama, tweeted Monday night. “It's as infectious as measles spreading in a non-immune population, with a much shorter incubation time therefore much faster doubling time.”

Two key comments
- Comparison is to non immune measles
- Much shorter incubation time

Measles has an R0 of about 18, didn’t think Omicron had got that high tbh.

Biffer wrote: Mon Feb 14, 2022 5:55 pm

Ymx wrote: Mon Feb 14, 2022 2:15 am That’s a lot of words and I’m lost in the general discussion of the above (tldr), but surely no one is currently advocating the attempt of an elimination strategy against Omicron??

Re the measles comment

“ I've NEVER seen anything like the speed of Omicron,”Dr. Tom Frieden, a former CDC director under President Barack Obama, tweeted Monday night. “It's as infectious as measles spreading in a non-immune population, with a much shorter incubation time therefore much faster doubling time.”

Two key comments
- Comparison is to non immune measles
- Much shorter incubation time

Measles has an R0 of about 18, didn’t think Omicron had got that high tbh.

Measles is one of the most infectious diseases known to man. Luckily it isn't particularly deadly but because if infects huge numbers of people very quickly it leads to a lot of deaths and serious side effects ie encephalitis, sight loss, etc. However in UK we have had a very effective childhood vaccination programme that took us above the 95% 'herd immunity' levels as recommended by WHO. Unfortunately, in part due to the covid pandemic and debate around vaccinations, we have seen vaccination levels drop to c89% levels in England for example so we are likely to see some outbreaks occurring later this year at which point the NHS England Measles PH guidelines will be implemented including testing, track and trace, isolating, travel restrictions, etc plus those unvaccinated will be asked to vaccinate.

Measles has an interesting history, it was particularly deadly for island populations who had had no previous history of the disease and were exposed by Western European visitors. One study of a remote small south sea island suggested measles had a mortality rate of c12% on the local population.

Ymx wrote: Mon Feb 14, 2022 2:15 am That’s a lot of words and I’m lost in the general discussion of the above (tldr), but surely no one is currently advocating the attempt of an elimination strategy against Omicron??

Re the measles comment

“ I've NEVER seen anything like the speed of Omicron,”Dr. Tom Frieden, a former CDC director under President Barack Obama, tweeted Monday night. “It's as infectious as measles spreading in a non-immune population, with a much shorter incubation time therefore much faster doubling time.”

Two key comments
- Comparison is to non immune measles
- Much shorter incubation time

That ship has sailed unfortunately.

However if you look at both the death rates and the measures of economic performance I quote above then those countries who adopted an elimination strategy ie tried as much as possible to limit community transmission, did better than the UK in terms of both death rates and economic performance, in some cases by a huge difference! I would be delighted to see evidence that supports the opposite?

See other posts re measles.

Unfortunately it would appear the current UK Gov strategy is now 'head in the sand' and to withdraw all PH covid requirements and to even stop monitoring covid case numbers etc by stopping the ONS Survey work. Talk about flying blind .....

Surely with covid so prevalent you can assume it's everywhere, that everyone is going to get it etc etc and just deal with the serious cases as they arrive in hospital?

I presume hospitals are still testing?

CM11 wrote: Tue Feb 15, 2022 9:57 pm Surely with covid so prevalent you can assume it's everywhere, that everyone is going to get it etc etc and just deal with the serious cases as they arrive in hospital?

I presume hospitals are still testing?

Certainly are in England atm.

dpedin wrote: Tue Feb 15, 2022 11:12 am

Ymx wrote: Mon Feb 14, 2022 2:15 am That’s a lot of words and I’m lost in the general discussion of the above (tldr), but surely no one is currently advocating the attempt of an elimination strategy against Omicron??

Re the measles comment

“ I've NEVER seen anything like the speed of Omicron,”Dr. Tom Frieden, a former CDC director under President Barack Obama, tweeted Monday night. “It's as infectious as measles spreading in a non-immune population, with a much shorter incubation time therefore much faster doubling time.”

Two key comments
- Comparison is to non immune measles
- Much shorter incubation time

That ship has sailed unfortunately.

However if you look at both the death rates and the measures of economic performance I quote above then those countries who adopted an elimination strategy ie tried as much as possible to limit community transmission, did better than the UK in terms of both death rates and economic performance, in some cases by a huge difference! I would be delighted to see evidence that supports the opposite?

See other posts re measles.

Unfortunately it would appear the current UK Gov strategy is now 'head in the sand' and to withdraw all PH covid requirements and to even stop monitoring covid case numbers etc by stopping the ONS Survey work. Talk about flying blind .....

Presuming excess death rates (and covid on death cert) is the last key metric we have on it.

With the testing heading out the window, detecting new variants is going to be slowed down considerably, which seems scary.

But perhaps it’s not a bad thing, should this disease head the way of swine flu, which just continues to circulate to this day in its changing form.

dpedin wrote: Tue Feb 15, 2022 11:12 am

Ymx wrote: Mon Feb 14, 2022 2:15 am That’s a lot of words and I’m lost in the general discussion of the above (tldr), but surely no one is currently advocating the attempt of an elimination strategy against Omicron??

Re the measles comment

“ I've NEVER seen anything like the speed of Omicron,”Dr. Tom Frieden, a former CDC director under President Barack Obama, tweeted Monday night. “It's as infectious as measles spreading in a non-immune population, with a much shorter incubation time therefore much faster doubling time.”

Two key comments
- Comparison is to non immune measles
- Much shorter incubation time

That ship has sailed unfortunately.

However if you look at both the death rates and the measures of economic performance I quote above then those countries who adopted an elimination strategy ie tried as much as possible to limit community transmission, did better than the UK in terms of both death rates and economic performance, in some cases by a huge difference! I would be delighted to see evidence that supports the opposite?

See other posts re measles.

Unfortunately it would appear the current UK Gov strategy is now 'head in the sand' and to withdraw all PH covid requirements and to even stop monitoring covid case numbers etc by stopping the ONS Survey work. Talk about flying blind .....

I'd love to see what risk assessments, if any, have been carried out with respect to the latest strategy - how many fatalities are planned ? It makes me wonder whether the highly vulnerable, and those unable to be vaxxed, are just being thrown to the wolves, or expected to hide themselves away. It's pretty obvious that the decisions being made now are mostly political (as in Johnson trying to bolster his support with the right wing in his party) rather than scientific.

Does anyone have any reliable figures for the number of people, in the UK, have actually caught Covid ?

For all our lockdowns, and rapid vax campaigns, etc., we've still fared pretty poorly in comparison to most European countries, when it comes to fatalities/100k population. It'll be interesting to see how much we've (directly) spent in combatting Covid, in comparison to other countries.

How many people are genuinely unable to be vaxed at this point? Genuine question.

And what restrictions should we be keeping in place? Mandatory masks or something beyond that?

Margin__Walker wrote: Wed Feb 16, 2022 6:52 am How many people are genuinely unable to be vaxed at this point? Genuine question.

And what restrictions should we be keeping in place? Mandatory masks or something beyond that?

At what point should the onus shift on companies + govt to make air quality & ventilation a priority?