So, coronavirus...

[petej]

It might have just been tongue in cheek as to be fair it’s a good natured thread.

And I’ve been poking with the

Job done

a little bit

Just to add a bit more. mRNA might be considerably shitter than the adenovirus vector vaccine's like AZ, janssen. Interesting interview.

[Grandpa]

I accidentally walked into a large hospital last week without a mask on... completely forgot about it... until I saw that everyone was wearing a mask... quickly went back to my car and put a mask on. Didn't realise it was still mandatory inside hospitals.

[Guy Smiley]

I accidentally walked into a large hospital last week without a mask on... completely forgot about it... until I saw that everyone was wearing a mask... quickly went back to my car and put a mask on. Didn't realise it was still mandatory inside hospitals.

I just spent 5 weeks in rural Thailand, which involved a few visits to a local hospital and larger ones in Bangkok itself.

The Thais are red hot on mask wearing with neighbours calling in wearing them in the village and everyone using them in any sort of public gathering. As for the hospitals... many staff wear face shields as well as masks.

towards the end of my stay I forgot a couple of times leaving the car and it's a jolt when you realise and have to shoot back for it.

[Grandpa]

I accidentally walked into a large hospital last week without a mask on... completely forgot about it... until I saw that everyone was wearing a mask... quickly went back to my car and put a mask on. Didn't realise it was still mandatory inside hospitals.

I just spent 5 weeks in rural Thailand, which involved a few visits to a local hospital and larger ones in Bangkok itself.

The Thais are red hot on mask wearing with neighbours calling in wearing them in the village and everyone using them in any sort of public gathering. As for the hospitals... many staff wear face shields as well as masks.

towards the end of my stay I forgot a couple of times leaving the car and it's a jolt when you realise and have to shoot back for it.

It's opened up a lot in Thailand since May 1st as well. I guess you went through all the testing etc to get into the country? From friends there now they say it has become more relaxed in the last week (since May 1st). Though not in hospitals I assume.. but in hotels etc.

Is mask wearing still a thing back in NZ?

[Guy Smiley]

I accidentally walked into a large hospital last week without a mask on... completely forgot about it... until I saw that everyone was wearing a mask... quickly went back to my car and put a mask on. Didn't realise it was still mandatory inside hospitals.

I just spent 5 weeks in rural Thailand, which involved a few visits to a local hospital and larger ones in Bangkok itself.

The Thais are red hot on mask wearing with neighbours calling in wearing them in the village and everyone using them in any sort of public gathering. As for the hospitals... many staff wear face shields as well as masks.

towards the end of my stay I forgot a couple of times leaving the car and it's a jolt when you realise and have to shoot back for it.

It's opened up a lot in Thailand since May 1st as well. I guess you went through all the testing etc to get into the country? From friends there now they say it has become more relaxed in the last week (since May 1st). Though not in hospitals I assume.. but in hotels etc.

Is mask wearing still a thing back in NZ?

When I flew in I had to have a booked hotel that provided airport pickup and onsite PCR test, results guaranteed within 24 hrs so you only book a night. There were different requirements for tourist heavy areas like the islands but I was always heading rural so went with what they called the Test and Go package. They've pretty much got their shit together with all of that... my test was ready in 8 hours. Similar efficiency with my test to return to NZ... PCR result emailed to me within a few hours complete with QR code.

I left on the 2nd... masks still prevalent everywhere and we had a group out for dinner on my last night in a popular beach area... the restaurant provided 'ATK' rapid test kits (standard rapid antigen test kits) for everyone to use before we could enter... cost 50BHT each.

NZ's official line is that it's suggested you wear a mask in public... so I see a few people around my regular spots like a cafe and supermarket not wearing them but most do. I caught the shuttle bus from Tauranga to Auckland when I flew out and bought a coffee at a roadside stop... we had masks on in te mini bus so I kept mine on to order. It was pretty clear the good burghers of Ngatea weren't too impressed with masks or people wearing them

[Grandpa]

I just spent 5 weeks in rural Thailand, which involved a few visits to a local hospital and larger ones in Bangkok itself.

The Thais are red hot on mask wearing with neighbours calling in wearing them in the village and everyone using them in any sort of public gathering. As for the hospitals... many staff wear face shields as well as masks.

towards the end of my stay I forgot a couple of times leaving the car and it's a jolt when you realise and have to shoot back for it.

It's opened up a lot in Thailand since May 1st as well. I guess you went through all the testing etc to get into the country? From friends there now they say it has become more relaxed in the last week (since May 1st). Though not in hospitals I assume.. but in hotels etc.

Is mask wearing still a thing back in NZ?

When I flew in I had to have a booked hotel that provided airport pickup and onsite PCR test, results guaranteed within 24 hrs so you only book a night. There were different requirements for tourist heavy areas like the islands but I was always heading rural so went with what they called the Test and Go package. They've pretty much got their shit together with all of that... my test was ready in 8 hours. Similar efficiency with my test to return to NZ... PCR result emailed to me within a few hours complete with QR code.

I left on the 2nd... masks still prevalent everywhere and we had a group out for dinner on my last night in a popular beach area... the restaurant provided 'ATK' rapid test kits (standard rapid antigen test kits) for everyone to use before we could enter... cost 50BHT each.

NZ's official line is that it's suggested you wear a mask in public... so I see a few people around my regular spots like a cafe and supermarket not wearing them but most do. I caught the shuttle bus from Tauranga to Auckland when I flew out and bought a coffee at a roadside stop... we had masks on in te mini bus so I kept mine on to order. It was pretty clear the good burghers of Ngatea weren't too impressed with masks or people wearing them

Yeah sounds like what most of my friends went through pre May 1st. As for NZ... sounds like here in the UK a few months back... since then, less and less wear masks... maybe 10% in shops etc... if that... sometimes I don't see any masks when out. It's just asking for a new variant to appear isn't it...

[Guy Smiley]

New variants are going to be a bit of an ongoing issue I guess. I think more pertinent for NZ right now is we're heading into winter and a flu season after two years where that hasn't been an issue. It'll be interesting to see how that pans out.

Interesting too, to note that Australia is currently seeing some of it's highest fatality rates from Covid since the thing began and it's getting no mention in the press at all... overshadowed by election coverage that has feature no hard questioning of the government on a range of contentious issues, replaced instead by ridiculous attempts at 'gotcha' moments by 'journo's' focussed on superficiality and soundbites. I think that dynamic has played out in the coverage of Covid related issues... it's been passed by the next shiny thing and the 'viewing public' are fatigued by it now. As a generalisation... 'everyone just wants to move on', come hell or high water.

[Tichtheid]

I was in a packed tube carriage on Saturday which got delayed on the way to Waterloo.

I was perhaps one of three people in the carriage wearing a mask.

It surprised me a little.

[laurent]

I was in a packed tube carriage on Saturday which got delayed on the way to Waterloo.

I was perhaps one of three people in the carriage wearing a mask.

It surprised me a little.

Mandatory in France

Only place with health centres where it is.

Frankly I wear it in shops still as well.

[Calculon]

Last time I wore a mask was on a Turkish Airlines flight back in February

[convoluted]

Re. the above mention of immunity issues caused by lockdown reducing interaction with others: Seemingly the local folk had built resistance since infancy and, on the outside at least, they looked in perfect health and beauty.

Ignoring the many serious diseases killing people there due to poor sanitation that you don't see on your tour

Just seen this^^.
I wrote about the sterility of Antarctica weakening the immune system, and contrasted it with people living on and adjacent to the Bangkok klongs doing their early morning ablutions in that water.
Re. the serious diseases, once vaccinations kicked in they were little more susceptible than we were.
Malaria remains a problem there, but just as flu does so with us.
The respiratory virus RSV hit NZ hard last winter because the lockdowns meant that children had gone unexposed for too long.
Obviously too there are concerns about this year's flu as winter kicks in. I believe that cases this Autumn far exceed the normal early number.

P.S. My 'tour'?? It was lone travel spent 95 percent among local people, and the huge bulk of the time was spent in South Vietnam-Cambodia.

[Ovals]

Got my booster (4th) shot booked

[Kiwias]

Way over 90% of people out in public are wearing masks in my little country town.

[Grandpa]

Way over 90% of people out in public are wearing masks in my little country town.

Got to the point here where I rarely see anyone wearing a mask... just in the last week or two.. they've gone! apart from in medical facilities. Even in pharmacies it's gone... it's also interesting that a lot of my friends/relatives have had Covid in the last few months... some suffered quite badly. I've been lucky so far.

[dpedin]

Interesting that BoE are now including the impact of long covid into their economic analysis - see below.

At first glance, it may seem surprising that domestic cost and capacity pressures have escalated so much, and the labour market is so tight, given that real GDP is only slightly above the Q4-19 level. If potential GDP had grown in line with its pre-pandemic pace (around 1½% YoY) since Q4-19, then one would expect the economy to still have some slack.

However, since Q4-19, the economy’s potential output has fallen well below its previous trend.

The workforce has shrunk by 440,000 people (1.3%) since Q4-19, and is 2.5% below the January 2020 forecast (see figure 5). The scale and persistence of this drop in labour supply has been a surprise to many forecasters, including us. The interplay between Brexit and the pandemic has reduced net inward migration (and hence population growth), while participation has fallen markedly (especially among people aged 50-64 years). Since Q4-19, the number of people aged 16-64 years that are outside the workforce and do not want a job has risen by 525,000 (1.3% of the 16-64 age population). This largely reflects increases in long-term sickness (roughly 320,000 people) and retirement (90,000), with smaller contributions from lower participation among students (65-70,000) and short-term sickness (30-35,000 people). The share of the 16-64 population who are outside the workforce and do not want a job because of long-term sickness is a record high, with an especially sharp rise among women (see figure 6). I suspect much of this rise in inactivity due to long-term sickness reflects side effects of the pandemic, for example Long Covidfootnote [3] and the rise in NHS waiting lists.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/ ... tion-event

[dpedin]

Interesting?

[petej]

Interesting?

Piss poor public health plus anti vaccine nonsense would have made COVID worse.

[Rinkals]

It’s not just that people dying of cancer happened to have caught Covid in the last weeks of their lives. Rather, people are dying way early—sometimes months...

The fudging of numbers in the US is chronic. Its pure political theatre

I suspect that's a little too rancid.

[petej]

Interesting?

Piss poor public health plus anti vaccine nonsense would have made COVID worse.

Depends where in the US.
- Scotland pop. 5.5 M , Covid death 15k
- Maryland pop. 6 M. , Covid death 14.5k

https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

Yep. I would expect the vaccine uptake to be very good in a strongly Dem state like Maryland and probably better public health as well.

[TheFrog]

Virus spreading fast and thick around me (DMV). No seriously ill people around, but the problem is kids exams, as you are not allowed to sit an exam if you're sick.

[Wilson's Toffee]

Finally had the thing. Not vaxxed.

It is just a fokken flu, did not even use antibiotics.

[dpedin]

Anyone mentioned Monkeypox yet? Simultaneous outbreaks of monkeypox in multiple countries - UK, Spain, Portugal and US as far as we know - is unprecedented. and probably indicates person-to-person transmission is already happening. Apparently it can spread through aerosol transmission, bodily fluids as well as via fomites. It is thought to have an RO of less than 1 and although there is no monkeypox vaccine the smallpox vaccine, to which monkeypox is related, is thought to offer some protection. Luckily it is the 'milder' version which has been found spreading, which has a IFR of c1%, the less mild version has an IFR of 10%. There is no known treatment.

It might just be coincidence or it might be that increased surveillance is identifying things which would previously have gone unnoticed but unexplained outbreaks of paediatric hepatitis and monkeypox, both very, very rare prior to covid pandemic is strange? Coincidence? Increased surveillance? Have these viruses changed or has covid impacted upon our immunity system response to other viruses? Too early to call yet but it is a worry.

[petej]

Anyone mentioned Monkeypox yet? Simultaneous outbreaks of monkeypox in multiple countries - UK, Spain, Portugal and US as far as we know - is unprecedented. and probably indicates person-to-person transmission is already happening. Apparently it can spread through aerosol transmission, bodily fluids as well as via fomites. It is thought to have an RO of less than 1 and although there is no monkeypox vaccine the smallpox vaccine, to which monkeypox is related, is thought to offer some protection. Luckily it is the 'milder' version which has been found spreading, which has a IFR of c1%, the less mild version has an IFR of 10%. There is no known treatment.

It might just be coincidence or it might be that increased surveillance is identifying things which would previously have gone unnoticed but unexplained outbreaks of paediatric hepatitis and monkeypox, both very, very rare prior to covid pandemic is strange? Coincidence? Increased surveillance? Have these viruses changed or has covid impacted upon our immunity system response to other viruses? Too early to call yet but it is a worry.

Increased media interest and, therefore, public awareness of disease outbreaks probably plays a part as well. Not like there hasn't been significant effort in surveillance of diseases pre pandemic.

[TheFrog]

Virus spreading fast and thick around me (DMV). No seriously ill people around, but the problem is kids exams, as you are not allowed to sit an exam if you're sick.

No serious hill people ? In MoCo we had 150 people in hospitals April 20th, now over 400.
With the availability of the antiviral Pfizer's pills (Paxlovid), I’m surprise to see this big jump .

Maybe kids should wear a mask at least during the exams to be safe.

We are neighbors man! I live in Moco too.

I am talking about people I know - not about the stats.

From what I hear, there are more vaccinated people in hospital now as the effect of the vaccines vanishes - and the virus mutates away from it's original form.

[TheFrog]

Finally had the thing. Not vaxxed.

It is just a fokken flu, did not even use antibiotics.

You know antibiotics are of no use against vaccines, don't you?

[laurent]

Finally had the thing. Not vaxxed.

It is just a fokken flu, did not even use antibiotics.

You know antibiotics are of no use against vaccines, don't you?

Virus I suppose

[Wilson's Toffee]

I always thought flu was caused by a virus.
Antibiotics is very good against bacterial infections caused by flu symptoms, I found.

But maybe COV2 is different.

[dpedin]

Anyone mentioned Monkeypox yet? Simultaneous outbreaks of monkeypox in multiple countries - UK, Spain, Portugal and US as far as we know - is unprecedented. and probably indicates person-to-person transmission is already happening. Apparently it can spread through aerosol transmission, bodily fluids as well as via fomites. It is thought to have an RO of less than 1 and although there is no monkeypox vaccine the smallpox vaccine, to which monkeypox is related, is thought to offer some protection. Luckily it is the 'milder' version which has been found spreading, which has a IFR of c1%, the less mild version has an IFR of 10%. There is no known treatment.

It might just be coincidence or it might be that increased surveillance is identifying things which would previously have gone unnoticed but unexplained outbreaks of paediatric hepatitis and monkeypox, both very, very rare prior to covid pandemic is strange? Coincidence? Increased surveillance? Have these viruses changed or has covid impacted upon our immunity system response to other viruses? Too early to call yet but it is a worry.

Increased media interest and, therefore, public awareness of disease outbreaks probably plays a part as well. Not like there hasn't been significant effort in surveillance of diseases pre pandemic.

Italy and Sweden have now identified cases of Monkeypox - see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61506562 Authorities are struggling to find links between the cases across all the countries involved - this seems very strange. Hopefully some link between the cases is identified soon, if not then it becomes a completely different ball game.

PS Apparently masks and hand washing prevents community transmission of monkeypox.

[TheFrog]

Finally had the thing. Not vaxxed.

It is just a fokken flu, did not even use antibiotics.

You know antibiotics are of no use against vaccines, don't you?

Virus I suppose

Yes

[TheFrog]

No serious hill people ? In MoCo we had 150 people in hospitals April 20th, now over 400.
With the availability of the antiviral Pfizer's pills (Paxlovid), I’m surprise to see this big jump .

Maybe kids should wear a mask at least during the exams to be safe.

We are neighbors man! I live in Moco too.

I am talking about people I know - not about the stats.

From what I hear, there are more vaccinated people in hospital now as the effect of the vaccines vanishes - and the virus mutates away from it's original form.

Same around me, barely nobody got Covid and the ones who got it had mild symptoms, but numbers are numbers.
As the bad wanes it makes sense , 95% of the MoCo adult pop has been vaccinated, but only a third got a booster.

To be safe Kids should wear a mask during their exams .

14 schools have had more than 4% of their staff and students test positive in the past 10 days, yours might be at
the lycée Rochambeau.

Those schools are:
• Sherwood Elementary (64 cases, 11.6%)
• Woodlin Elementary, Silver Spring (45 cases, 7.3%)
• Diamond Elementary, Gaithersburg (59 cases, 7.2%)
• Westover Elementary, Silver Spring (23 cases, 7.2%)
• Kensington Parkwood Elementary, Kensington (47 cases, 7%)
• Wyngate Elementary, Bethesda (50 cases, 6.5%)
• Westbrook Elementary, Bethesda (19 cases, 5.7%)
• Carderock Springs Elementary, Bethesda (20 cases, 5.3%)
• Ritchie Park Elementary, Rockville (22 cases, 5.2%)
• Bradley Hills Elementary, Bethesda (27 cases, 5.1%)
• Ashburton Elementary, Bethesda (47 cases, 5%)
• Westland Middle, Bethesda (43 cases, 4.8%)
• Lucy V. Barnsley Elementary, Rockville (35 cases, 4.5%)
• Thomas W. Pyle Middle, Bethesda (61 cases, 4.2%)

Rochambeau has temporarily made masks mandatory again - I suspect at the request of terminale parents who were concerned their children would not be able to sit their exams if sick.


[What do you do in Moco?]

[dpedin]

Anyone mentioned Monkeypox yet? Simultaneous outbreaks of monkeypox in multiple countries - UK, Spain, Portugal and US as far as we know - is unprecedented. and probably indicates person-to-person transmission is already happening. Apparently it can spread through aerosol transmission, bodily fluids as well as via fomites. It is thought to have an RO of less than 1 and although there is no monkeypox vaccine the smallpox vaccine, to which monkeypox is related, is thought to offer some protection. Luckily it is the 'milder' version which has been found spreading, which has a IFR of c1%, the less mild version has an IFR of 10%. There is no known treatment.

It might just be coincidence or it might be that increased surveillance is identifying things which would previously have gone unnoticed but unexplained outbreaks of paediatric hepatitis and monkeypox, both very, very rare prior to covid pandemic is strange? Coincidence? Increased surveillance? Have these viruses changed or has covid impacted upon our immunity system response to other viruses? Too early to call yet but it is a worry.

Increased media interest and, therefore, public awareness of disease outbreaks probably plays a part as well. Not like there hasn't been significant effort in surveillance of diseases pre pandemic.

Italy and Sweden have now identified cases of Monkeypox - see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61506562 Authorities are struggling to find links between the cases across all the countries involved - this seems very strange. Hopefully some link between the cases is identified soon, if not then it becomes a completely different ball game.

PS Apparently masks and hand washing prevents community transmission of monkeypox.

Cases on Monkeypox in 12 countries now. WHO still struggling to find links between them all and explain such a widespread distribution of cases. They expect many more cases over the next few weeks given the incubation period. Young folk <50'ish are most at risk as older population will have been vaccinated against smallpox, which offers good protection. Smallpox vaccination was discontinued in early 70s once the virus was all but eliminated. Richer countries stocking up with smallpox vaccines and antiviral treatments for a few weeks now. Internet getting into a frenzy over this - seen many suggesting this is Russian germ warfare!

In unrelated news number of cases of paediatric hepatitis reaches over 450 in 25 countries. This has doubled in 2 weeks. Almost all are under 5 years old so therefore not connected to vaccines in any way. Adenovirus type41 is still being investigated as possible cause but some scientists are now doubting this, 'Tissue and liver samples obtained in the U.K., according to Dr. Phillipa Easterbrook, a senior scientist at the WHO, said they do not “show any of the typical features you might expect with a liver inflammation due to adenovirus, but we are awaiting further examination of biopsies.' This number of cases is very unusual.

Keep safe guys!

[petej]

Increased media interest and, therefore, public awareness of disease outbreaks probably plays a part as well. Not like there hasn't been significant effort in surveillance of diseases pre pandemic.

Italy and Sweden have now identified cases of Monkeypox - see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61506562 Authorities are struggling to find links between the cases across all the countries involved - this seems very strange. Hopefully some link between the cases is identified soon, if not then it becomes a completely different ball game.

PS Apparently masks and hand washing prevents community transmission of monkeypox.

Cases on Monkeypox in 12 countries now. WHO still struggling to find links between them all and explain such a widespread distribution of cases. They expect many more cases over the next few weeks given the incubation period. Young folk <50'ish are most at risk as older population will have been vaccinated against smallpox, which offers good protection. Smallpox vaccination was discontinued in early 70s once the virus was all but eliminated. Richer countries stocking up with smallpox vaccines and antiviral treatments for a few weeks now. Internet getting into a frenzy over this - seen many suggesting this is Russian germ warfare!

In unrelated news number of cases of paediatric hepatitis reaches over 450 in 25 countries. This has doubled in 2 weeks. Almost all are under 5 years old so therefore not connected to vaccines in any way. Adenovirus type41 is still being investigated as possible cause but some scientists are now doubting this, 'Tissue and liver samples obtained in the U.K., according to Dr. Phillipa Easterbrook, a senior scientist at the WHO, said they do not “show any of the typical features you might expect with a liver inflammation due to adenovirus, but we are awaiting further examination of biopsies.' This number of cases is very unusual.

Keep safe guys!

Guardian reporting past the peak. Good luck to the scientists unpicking the hepatitis. Stomach bugs and colds have been mental last winter and spring.

[tabascoboy]

Cases on Monkeypox in 12 countries now. WHO still struggling to find links between them all and explain such a widespread distribution of cases. They expect many more cases over the next few weeks given the incubation period. Young folk <50'ish are most at risk as older population will have been vaccinated against smallpox, which offers good protection. Smallpox vaccination was discontinued in early 70s once the virus was all but eliminated. Richer countries stocking up with smallpox vaccines and antiviral treatments for a few weeks now. Internet getting into a frenzy over this - seen many suggesting this is Russian germ warfare!
...

Keep safe guys!

Nah, it's #BillGatesBioLabs innit.

[dpedin]

Cases on Monkeypox in 12 countries now. WHO still struggling to find links between them all and explain such a widespread distribution of cases. They expect many more cases over the next few weeks given the incubation period. Young folk <50'ish are most at risk as older population will have been vaccinated against smallpox, which offers good protection. Smallpox vaccination was discontinued in early 70s once the virus was all but eliminated. Richer countries stocking up with smallpox vaccines and antiviral treatments for a few weeks now. Internet getting into a frenzy over this - seen many suggesting this is Russian germ warfare!
...

Keep safe guys!

Nah, it's #BillGatesBioLabs innit.

15 countries now - Israel, Swiss and Austria added to the list.

[dpedin]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 2022-05-23

This is an interesting publication re deaths due to covid v flu and pneumonia. There are the usual warnings about the data but the ONS appear comfortable that the analysis and the data. It must be remembered that the 'flu and pneumonia' category includes pneumonia deaths and many of these will be unrelated to flu, some will also be related to covid deaths.

Shows that covid was far more deadly then flu/pneumonia and that it impacted more on younger age groups.

[petej]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 2022-05-23

This is an interesting publication re deaths due to covid v flu and pneumonia. There are the usual warnings about the data but the ONS appear comfortable that the analysis and the data. It must be remembered that the 'flu and pneumonia' category includes pneumonia deaths and many of these will be unrelated to flu, some will also be related to covid deaths.

Shows that covid was far more deadly then flu/pneumonia and that it impacted more on younger age groups.

It is a very good article. The ONS appear comfortable, more we've been told to analyse this and this is the best we can do with the information we have and here is a load of limitations. The limitations and warnings are there precisely because of what the ONS authors are uncertain about.

Directly comparing COVID-19 deaths with those from flu and pneumonia has limitations. For example, death certificates likely underestimate flu deaths because not all patients are tested for it, and circulating flu causes increases in deaths due to other conditions such as cardiovascular diseases. However, these figures do allow us to compare the trends and approximate mortality associated with each.

In that winter, deaths due to both COVID-19 and flu and pneumonia far exceeded those due to flu and pneumonia alone in pre-coronavirus pandemic years.

In the latest winter (December 2021 to March 2022), the number of deaths with COVID-19 as the underlying cause has fallen more in line with those due to flu and pneumonia in pre-coronavirus pandemic years.

The number of deaths due to COVID-19 is still double that of those due to flu and pneumonia in the same period, as there have been considerably fewer deaths due to flu and pneumonia over the last two winters.

The change in flu counting method and flu vaccines is interesting with a similar impact. If you were cynical you could contrast the approaches of 2 governments to reducing flu deaths. You would expect the 2022 COVID number to be between the number for flu prior to vaccination being rolled out to all adults over 65 and the current pre pandemic number (hopefully nearer the latter).

Screenshot_20220524-142938.png (197.57 KiB) Viewed 1538 times

[dpedin]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 2022-05-23

This is an interesting publication re deaths due to covid v flu and pneumonia. There are the usual warnings about the data but the ONS appear comfortable that the analysis and the data. It must be remembered that the 'flu and pneumonia' category includes pneumonia deaths and many of these will be unrelated to flu, some will also be related to covid deaths.

Shows that covid was far more deadly then flu/pneumonia and that it impacted more on younger age groups.

It is a very good article. The ONS appear comfortable, more we've been told to analyse this and this is the best we can do with the information we have and here is a load of limitations. The limitations and warnings are there precisely because of what the ONS authors are uncertain about.

Directly comparing COVID-19 deaths with those from flu and pneumonia has limitations. For example, death certificates likely underestimate flu deaths because not all patients are tested for it, and circulating flu causes increases in deaths due to other conditions such as cardiovascular diseases. However, these figures do allow us to compare the trends and approximate mortality associated with each.

In that winter, deaths due to both COVID-19 and flu and pneumonia far exceeded those due to flu and pneumonia alone in pre-coronavirus pandemic years.

In the latest winter (December 2021 to March 2022), the number of deaths with COVID-19 as the underlying cause has fallen more in line with those due to flu and pneumonia in pre-coronavirus pandemic years.

The number of deaths due to COVID-19 is still double that of those due to flu and pneumonia in the same period, as there have been considerably fewer deaths due to flu and pneumonia over the last two winters.

The change in flu counting method and flu vaccines is interesting with a similar impact. If you were cynical you could contrast the approaches of 2 governments to reducing flu deaths. You would expect the 2022 COVID number to be between the number for flu prior to vaccination being rolled out to all adults over 65 and the current pre pandemic number (hopefully nearer the latter).
Screenshot_20220524-142938.png

The biggest problem with the data is including deaths from flu and pneumonia together, many pneumonia deaths have nothing to do with flu.

It is interesting that ONS suggest that there is an underestimation of flu deaths because circulating flu increases deaths due to other conditions such as cardiovascular disease when we know now that covid can lead to increased risk of cardiovascular disease for >12 months post even a mild infection. I would suggest that the likelihood of ongoing illness and death post covid, which is also not recorded accurately, is higher than that of flu? Certainly emerging research suggests, for example, that covid increases risk of cardiovascular disease significantly - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... -american/ as an example.

However as the ONS say, these figures do allow us to compare the trends and approximate mortality associated with each.

[Guy Smiley]

A statistical irrelevance in AU/NZ.

Not worth trashing the economy over, but its too late to undo the damage now.

Well, I was curious so I had a look at the first page of the thread :)

[petej]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 2022-05-23

This is an interesting publication re deaths due to covid v flu and pneumonia. There are the usual warnings about the data but the ONS appear comfortable that the analysis and the data. It must be remembered that the 'flu and pneumonia' category includes pneumonia deaths and many of these will be unrelated to flu, some will also be related to covid deaths.

Shows that covid was far more deadly then flu/pneumonia and that it impacted more on younger age groups.

It is a very good article. The ONS appear comfortable, more we've been told to analyse this and this is the best we can do with the information we have and here is a load of limitations. The limitations and warnings are there precisely because of what the ONS authors are uncertain about.

Directly comparing COVID-19 deaths with those from flu and pneumonia has limitations. For example, death certificates likely underestimate flu deaths because not all patients are tested for it, and circulating flu causes increases in deaths due to other conditions such as cardiovascular diseases. However, these figures do allow us to compare the trends and approximate mortality associated with each.

In that winter, deaths due to both COVID-19 and flu and pneumonia far exceeded those due to flu and pneumonia alone in pre-coronavirus pandemic years.

In the latest winter (December 2021 to March 2022), the number of deaths with COVID-19 as the underlying cause has fallen more in line with those due to flu and pneumonia in pre-coronavirus pandemic years.

The number of deaths due to COVID-19 is still double that of those due to flu and pneumonia in the same period, as there have been considerably fewer deaths due to flu and pneumonia over the last two winters.

The change in flu counting method and flu vaccines is interesting with a similar impact. If you were cynical you could contrast the approaches of 2 governments to reducing flu deaths. You would expect the 2022 COVID number to be between the number for flu prior to vaccination being rolled out to all adults over 65 and the current pre pandemic number (hopefully nearer the latter).
Screenshot_20220524-142938.png

The biggest problem with the data is including deaths from flu and pneumonia together, many pneumonia deaths have nothing to do with flu.

It is interesting that ONS suggest that there is an underestimation of flu deaths because circulating flu increases deaths due to other conditions such as cardiovascular disease when we know now that covid can lead to increased risk of cardiovascular disease for >12 months post even a mild infection. I would suggest that the likelihood of ongoing illness and death post covid, which is also not recorded accurately, is higher than that of flu? Certainly emerging research suggests, for example, that covid increases risk of cardiovascular disease significantly - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... -american/ as an example.

However as the ONS say, these figures do allow us to compare the trends and approximate mortality associated with each.

I know it sounds dull but perhaps they don't unpick the flu and pneumonia because it would be impractical to do so particularly if the records are going back a long time. COVID is likely to be recorded more accurately because there has been shitloads of money, effort and technological capability to do so. I'm certain it is the most recorded and traced disease ever.

[dpedin]

It is a very good article. The ONS appear comfortable, more we've been told to analyse this and this is the best we can do with the information we have and here is a load of limitations. The limitations and warnings are there precisely because of what the ONS authors are uncertain about.






The change in flu counting method and flu vaccines is interesting with a similar impact. If you were cynical you could contrast the approaches of 2 governments to reducing flu deaths. You would expect the 2022 COVID number to be between the number for flu prior to vaccination being rolled out to all adults over 65 and the current pre pandemic number (hopefully nearer the latter).
Screenshot_20220524-142938.png

The biggest problem with the data is including deaths from flu and pneumonia together, many pneumonia deaths have nothing to do with flu.

It is interesting that ONS suggest that there is an underestimation of flu deaths because circulating flu increases deaths due to other conditions such as cardiovascular disease when we know now that covid can lead to increased risk of cardiovascular disease for >12 months post even a mild infection. I would suggest that the likelihood of ongoing illness and death post covid, which is also not recorded accurately, is higher than that of flu? Certainly emerging research suggests, for example, that covid increases risk of cardiovascular disease significantly - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... -american/ as an example.

However as the ONS say, these figures do allow us to compare the trends and approximate mortality associated with each.

I know it sounds dull but perhaps they don't unpick the flu and pneumonia because it would be impractical to do so particularly if the records are going back a long time. COVID is likely to be recorded more accurately because there has been shitloads of money, effort and technological capability to do so. I'm certain it is the most recorded and traced disease ever.

Probably right. All the ONS data is based in the ICD - International Classification of Death - codes which I think are managed by WHO so we need to align with international coding systems to allow for cross country research etc. Also depends on what is recorded as cause and/or underlying cause of death on the cert - quite a few can be listed. Most doctors who sign off the forms, who need to be GMC registered, do so pretty well. Both covid and flu/pneumonia can be on the death cert and be coded and counted against both. If ONS say death involves covid or flu/pneumonia then the death cert will have these mentioned anywhere on it and they are counted as an underlying cause.

To be fair to our systems all deaths are recorded and all have cause of death and underlying causes of death in detail on them, so I don't think it wouldn't be correct to suggest that covid is recorded more accurately than other diseases, including flu/pneumonia. However there will be some issues about certs being filled in correctly in some complex cases and that some deaths, albeit a small number, are obviously coded incorrectly - just think how many deaths records needed to be corrected, which they will have been, following the Shipman case! However I suspect the ONS data is pretty accurate for the vast majority of deaths.