Saffers

[sorCrer]

https://www.news24.com/news24/southafri ... e-20210905

Did we expect anything else?

He literally didn't spend one night in a cell.

[Sards]

https://www.news24.com/news24/southafri ... e-20210905

Did we expect anything else?

He literally didn't spend one night in a cell.

A complete mockery

[assfly]

https://www.news24.com/news24/southafri ... e-20210905

Did we expect anything else?

Well that was easy. Not sure why this wasn't done sooner.

[Chilli]

https://www.news24.com/news24/southafri ... e-20210905

Did we expect anything else?

Well that was easy. Not sure why this wasn't done sooner.

So this will delay his trial as well.

He will still demand his day in court, once he is better of course

[assfly]

So this will delay his trial as well.
He will still demand his day in court, once he is better of course

I'm starting to doubt it will even happen. If it's this easy for him to walk out of prison on medical grounds. It has Schabir Shaik written all over it.

[Big Nipper]

This is a golden ticket for all the opposition parties. ANC will be way below 50% after the October polls, and will lose almost all the main metros

Only positive I can draw from this farce, but at least a good one

[average joe]

The guy has wasted so much of our money. Al this court cases just adds to the tally and putting him in prison would be unfair on the tax payers who would fit the bill to feed and house him. I say he should forfeit his pension, his properties and belongings should be confiscated and put on auction. It would be better for him to just die forgotten and forlorn in some old age home.

[assfly]

The guy has wasted so much of our money. Al this court cases just adds to the tally and putting him in prison would be unfair on the tax payers who would fit the bill to feed and house him. I say he should forfeit his pension, his properties and belongings should be confiscated and put on auction. It would be better for him to just die forgotten and forlorn in some old age home.

I'm inclined to agree. Sometimes the search for justice can be a long and expensive one, until we finally realise that he was untouchable all along. Do something to make an example of him, but the chances of begging for forgiveness, spilling the beans on his cronies and dying in prison are low.

[Chilli]

The DA should be all over this.......

[Big Nipper]

The DA should be all over this.......

Indeed. Instead Zille is doubling down on the conspiracy theory she sowed about the Con Court leaking their judgment to the ANC regarding the election case.

Absolute clownery of the highest order

[Chilli]

The DA should be all over this.......

Indeed. Instead Zille is doubling down on the conspiracy theory she sowed about the Con Court leaking their judgment to the ANC regarding the election case.

Absolute clownery of the highest order

She is a cancer.

[Rinkals]

I think we have to be realistic about this.

Zuma is almost eighty and there is no way he doesn't have medical issues.

The fact that he is [technically] behind bars is a win for me, not least because it shows that even former Presidents are not above the law.

[Chilli]

I think we have to be realistic about this.

Zuma is almost eighty and there is no way he doesn't have medical issues.

The fact that he is [technically] behind bars is a win for me, not least because it shows that even former Presidents are not above the law.

Yes, but it still a hollow win.

[Rinkals]

I think we have to be realistic about this.

Zuma is almost eighty and there is no way he doesn't have medical issues.

The fact that he is [technically] behind bars is a win for me, not least because it shows that even former Presidents are not above the law.

Yes, but it still a hollow win.

Only if the purpose behind it is retribution.

[Blake]

This is a golden ticket for all the opposition parties. ANC will be way below 50% after the October polls, and will lose almost all the main metros

Only positive I can draw from this farce, but at least a good one

Polls means nothing. Many people threaten to change their vote, but when they actually have to put pen to paper, they chicken out.
Can't see much changing next election.

The DA is pretty fragmented right now. I like the things they are saying and doing (for the most part) but it will take at least 2 election cycles to undo the damage that was done when they tried to window dress their leadership structures, at the cost of their core principles. It's going to take time to rebuild.

Luckily it's not all lost. Most of the votes that shifted to the FF+ etc. will align with the DA on important national issues e.g. breaking up SEOs, rejecting the way BEE has been implemented, clamping down on corruption, giving provinces and metros more autonomy etc, but the longer the ANC takes to fracture completely, the longer a transition is likely to take.

[Blake]

The DA should be all over this.......

Indeed. Instead Zille is doubling down on the conspiracy theory she sowed about the Con Court leaking their judgment to the ANC regarding the election case.

Absolute clownery of the highest order

Yeah, I've tried to defend some of her ramblings in the past, not because I agree with them, but because I believed them or be inconsequential, but she's a major liability now.
Boomers on social media really are a massive problem in general.

[assfly]

Is this non-registration issue of the ANC likely to have much of an impact come election day?

[Big Nipper]

This is a golden ticket for all the opposition parties. ANC will be way below 50% after the October polls, and will lose almost all the main metros

Only positive I can draw from this farce, but at least a good one

Polls means nothing. Many people threaten to change their vote, but when they actually have to put pen to paper, they chicken out.
Can't see much changing next election.

The DA is pretty fragmented right now. I like the things they are saying and doing (for the most part) but it will take at least 2 election cycles to undo the damage that was done when they tried to window dress their leadership structures, at the cost of their core principles. It's going to take time to rebuild.

Luckily it's not all lost. Most of the votes that shifted to the FF+ etc. will align with the DA on important national issues e.g. breaking up SEOs, rejecting the way BEE has been implemented, clamping down on corruption, giving provinces and metros more autonomy etc, but the longer the ANC takes to fracture completely, the longer a transition is likely to take.

By polls I mean the actual elections, sorry for the misunderstanding.

I think if the ANC does not succeed in registering its councillors the voter turnout is going to be extremely low, due to the fact that some ANC voters will never in their lives vote for another party. This will surely help the DA and other parties

[Blake]

This is a golden ticket for all the opposition parties. ANC will be way below 50% after the October polls, and will lose almost all the main metros

Only positive I can draw from this farce, but at least a good one

Polls means nothing. Many people threaten to change their vote, but when they actually have to put pen to paper, they chicken out.
Can't see much changing next election.

The DA is pretty fragmented right now. I like the things they are saying and doing (for the most part) but it will take at least 2 election cycles to undo the damage that was done when they tried to window dress their leadership structures, at the cost of their core principles. It's going to take time to rebuild.

Luckily it's not all lost. Most of the votes that shifted to the FF+ etc. will align with the DA on important national issues e.g. breaking up SEOs, rejecting the way BEE has been implemented, clamping down on corruption, giving provinces and metros more autonomy etc, but the longer the ANC takes to fracture completely, the longer a transition is likely to take.

By polls I mean the actual elections, sorry for the misunderstanding.

I think if the ANC does not succeed in registering its councillors the voter turnout is going to be extremely low, due to the fact that some ANC voters will never in their lives vote for another party. This will surely help the DA and other parties

My understanding is that those ANC candidates can still register as independents, they will just not be on the ballots next to an ANC Emblem. No doubt it will hurt them badly as most voters are stupid/lazy and just look for a logo and not an actual candidate, but they could still take a large chunk of the votes. It'll just cost the ANC more money in campaigning...money that they don't have (yet).

Will be glorious if this is finally the election the ANC implodes. If the loss of the Western Cape has taught us anything, is that they completely crumble when they lose the levers of power and the cookie jar slams shut. Once they can no longer use state resources to keep their grip on power, they turn on one another very quickly when cushy government jobs become scarce and they are useless in the private sector without friends in power to give them government contracts.

[Chilli]

This is a golden ticket for all the opposition parties. ANC will be way below 50% after the October polls, and will lose almost all the main metros

Only positive I can draw from this farce, but at least a good one

Polls means nothing. Many people threaten to change their vote, but when they actually have to put pen to paper, they chicken out.
Can't see much changing next election.

The DA is pretty fragmented right now. I like the things they are saying and doing (for the most part) but it will take at least 2 election cycles to undo the damage that was done when they tried to window dress their leadership structures, at the cost of their core principles. It's going to take time to rebuild.

Luckily it's not all lost. Most of the votes that shifted to the FF+ etc. will align with the DA on important national issues e.g. breaking up SEOs, rejecting the way BEE has been implemented, clamping down on corruption, giving provinces and metros more autonomy etc, but the longer the ANC takes to fracture completely, the longer a transition is likely to take.

By polls I mean the actual elections, sorry for the misunderstanding.

I think if the ANC does not succeed in registering its councillors the voter turnout is going to be extremely low, due to the fact that some ANC voters will never in their lives vote for another party. This will surely help the DA and other parties

What worries me is if the voters don't see the ANC on the ballot paper and they cannot bring themselves to vote for the DA.................next thing the EFF are running municipalities.

If the candidates are allowed to run as independents it might be a very good thing.
It takes away the ANC's policy of cadre deployment. So the people can actually vote for and get the candidate who they want.

[_Os_]

This is a golden ticket for all the opposition parties. ANC will be way below 50% after the October polls, and will lose almost all the main metros

Only positive I can draw from this farce, but at least a good one

Polls means nothing. Many people threaten to change their vote, but when they actually have to put pen to paper, they chicken out.
Can't see much changing next election.

Nah, Nipper is closer to what's going to happen in this one.

The ANC hasn't been paying its staff, hasn't been paying polling companies it hired (IPSOS). If you don't have paid staff members, you have no campaign worth the name, and if you have no valid polling (IPSOS not he greatest but there's worse out there by a long way) you're flying blind. In the UK the Conservatives and Labour run very different types of campaigns (I'm not a fan of either party, but just using it as an example), the Conservatives have much less support on the ground and usually run an awful ground campaign (can't knock on doors if you have no people) but have lots of money and the excellent marketing and polling that buys, Labour have a very large ground campaign but less money. So what ends up happening is Labour spam constituencies with messages/slogans on issues which may impact one constituency but literally have no one that cares about it another, no targeting just all cookie cutter and knock on as many doors as possible, whilst the Conservatives tailor their campaigns down to the micro level they've even targeted individual people with custom generated letters addressed to them (machine generated) before as well as tailored Facebook ads they don't have many door knockers. The end result is the Conservatives end up with majorities by winning many constituencies by small amounts, they do this whilst the left and centre parties get most of the votes (the UK doesn't have a great electoral system, Labour tend to stack up huge piles of votes in constituencies they've already won).

The ANC have fucked themselves by not paying staff, creating an awful working environment for staff who have resorted to striking, and then not paying important contractors either (polling companies, printers etc). They're fucked. Crazy that all the BEE billionaires and other hugely wealthy crooks aren't prepared to put their hands into their own pockets to keep their party going. The best they can do now is a really poorly targeted campaign , where they just blast messages that may resonate in one place but not another. If they have no money for focus groups, then making an effective election messaging/slogans/TV slots/material which will resonate with their supporters, is impossible. If you fail at that your voters stay at home.

Not going to make any calls until closer to the election, but the broad picture is the ANC will get hammered. ANC going below 50% is very likely. There's scope for them to go quite far below 50% too, but that depends on if the opposition parties can get their votes out.

What worries me is if the voters don't see the ANC on the ballot paper and they cannot bring themselves to vote for the DA.................next thing the EFF are running municipalities.

There's been polling done on this, the question is something like "if you didn't vote for your party who would you vote for?" or "what is your second choice party". ANC voters are about a quarter/third each wouldn't vote/EFF/DA and the remainder going for IFP or total minnows.

[_Os_]

Just to put some numbers onto that post. In 2016 the ANC spent over R1 billion on its campaign, you read that correctly, an unknown amount exceeding one billion. To put that into perspective, it's triple what the Conservatives spent in the UK to win a national election in 2019.

What over R1 billion got the ANC in 2016 was 8 million people to vote for them in an election where 15 million voted. In 2011 8.5 million ANC voters turned up, in 2006 6.5 million turned up. If the ANC score closer to 6.5 million than 8 million, they end up well under 50% if the opposition parties get their voters out.

[OomStruisbaai]

How can anyone disagree with Chief Ox.

DA is party to vote for.

To vote for individuals is a waisted vote.

[average joe]

Just to put some numbers onto that post. In 2016 the ANC spent over R1 billion on its campaign, you read that correctly, an unknown amount exceeding one billion. To put that into perspective, it's triple what the Conservatives spent in the UK to win a national election in 2019.

What over R1 billion got the ANC in 2016 was 8 million people to vote for them in an election where 15 million voted. In 2011 8.5 million ANC voters turned up, in 2006 6.5 million turned up. If the ANC score closer to 6.5 million than 8 million, they end up well under 50% if the opposition parties get their voters out.

Under 50% does not matter, the next biggest opposition party below the DA is the EFF. Guess who they would vote with on contentious issues like land reform, BBBEE, etc. Even if the ANC drops to say 40% they only need a peepee party of 10% to put them over. It's not only the hopefully 30% DA that can form coalitions. All the ANC needs to do is lean a bit more one way or the other on contentious issues and they can rope in a few of the more radical party's. So you've beaten the old ANC but now you have a new ANC to contend with. One that's not bound by to old farts respect for the constitution.

[Chilli]

Just to put some numbers onto that post. In 2016 the ANC spent over R1 billion on its campaign, you read that correctly, an unknown amount exceeding one billion. To put that into perspective, it's triple what the Conservatives spent in the UK to win a national election in 2019.

What over R1 billion got the ANC in 2016 was 8 million people to vote for them in an election where 15 million voted. In 2011 8.5 million ANC voters turned up, in 2006 6.5 million turned up. If the ANC score closer to 6.5 million than 8 million, they end up well under 50% if the opposition parties get their voters out.

Where do you get that figure from?

[assfly]

Looks like the ANC have managed to convince the IEC to reopen registration.

[Blake]

The ANC have fucked themselves by not paying staff, creating an awful working environment for staff who have resorted to striking, and then not paying important contractors either (polling companies, printers etc). They're fucked. Crazy that all the BEE billionaires and other hugely wealthy crooks aren't prepared to put their hands into their own pockets to keep their party going. The best they can do now is a really poorly targeted campaign , where they just blast messages that may resonate in one place but not another. If they have no money for focus groups, then making an effective election messaging/slogans/TV slots/material which will resonate with their supporters, is impossible. If you fail at that your voters stay at home.

It's beautiful isn't it. Read this opinion piece that also shed some light on that:
Linky

All the many publicly stated reasons for why the ANC is suddenly so penniless are no doubt true. The biggest one you come across, of course, is the law the ANC themselves introduced – much to their own horror – that requires larger donations to be publicly declared.

It has clearly disrupted the ANC’s tried-and-tested funding model of taking donation kickbacks from the companies its government officials award tenders to.

^^ This and also the fact that all the SEOs are on their knees and under a microscope.

The whole organisation is built on sand. Once you start cutting off all the dodgy funds they can't sustain themselves. Western Cape ANC was crippled when they lost Cape Town and the Province.

[Sards]

Pissing against the wind....
as long as the ANC and EFF play race based politics and keep the population poorly educated they will reign till Jesus comes...the rest is just a sideshow.

[_Os_]

Under 50% does not matter, the next biggest opposition party below the DA is the EFF. Guess who they would vote with on contentious issues like land reform, BBBEE, etc. Even if the ANC drops to say 40% they only need a peepee party of 10% to put them over. It's not only the hopefully 30% DA that can form coalitions. All the ANC needs to do is lean a bit more one way or the other on contentious issues and they can rope in a few of the more radical party's. So you've beaten the old ANC but now you have a new ANC to contend with. One that's not bound by to old farts respect for the constitution.

Ja, it's heading towards a proper political contest. No one will be able to say their vote doesn't matter. If the ANC drop to 40% (in many places the smallest amount they could drop to in the next few years), then getting a coalition with a single party of 10% to form a coalition with them won't be easy because there's not many of those. In the electoral system SA has 10% is a medium sized party and 25%+ is a very large party, a party the size of the ANC shouldn't exist in the electoral system SA has but does for now because of the history.

For example, in KZN only ANC/IFP/DA will be over 10% (the EFF has some support in the Durban area and just about nothing elsewhere in KZN), people that speak Zulu/Xhosa/Afrikaans/English are much less interested in the EFF and so it's also nowhere in Eastern Cape/Western Cape/Northern Cape (although the Northern Cape has a lot of Tswana speakers around Kimberley that part of the province is the most populated and should've probably been part of North West, they swing which way the province goes). The EFF only really starts picking up support that goes 10%+ among the Sotho–Tswana language group speakers (Pedi which is Malema's home language, is basically the entire Northern Sotho group, which is between Sotho and Tswana being not entirely one or the other) and in the really big metros that have large enough populations to have a lot of young black men that are desperate and also urbanised enough to have lost tribal affiliations. The DA and minnows below 10% could have a shot at coalitions without the ANC/EFF in a lot more areas than before.

The other side of what you're saying, is that with the electoral system SA has it should be normal to form coalitions. Every big metro, province, and national government should end up a coalition. If it's shown that a party can't form a coalition and can't get anything done (this has been shown with the EFF now, although it will take a bit longer for some to realise), then they're at a massive disadvantage. To EFF supporters part of the appeal of Malema is his image as a strongman that looks like he'll get stuff done. It'll harm him if it's shown to be a clown that can't get anything done, either because he creates chaos or just goes along with the ANC like a stooge. Those are likely the EFF's two options in a coalition with the ANC, chaotic clown show or change nothing (both will mkae them look like traitors to their supporters). It's not actually a positive for the ANC that they'll need to depend on a rabble like the EFF, most ANC voters strongly dislike the EFF if the ANC died and was replaced by the EFF, then every 3 or 4 ANC voters becomes 1 EFF voter.

Where do you get that figure from?

The ANC campaign boss said in 2016 "we've spent over one billion rand", some other ANC bosses said it also from memory. It was insane, but they said it like it was normal. The DA spend at most around 10% of that, and all the other parties much less than the DA.

It's beautiful isn't it. Read this opinion piece that also shed some light on that:
Linky

The whole organisation is built on sand. Once you start cutting off all the dodgy funds they can't sustain themselves. Western Cape ANC was crippled when they lost Cape Town and the Province.

It does look that way. All they had to do was go with merit and certainly not cadre deployment and BEE (both just ending up with the cronies pocketing all the money and nothing improving), and by now they would've probably been impossible to defeat. Instead we are where we are. I'm optimistic they'll be reduced to being medium sized and out of power (from there it's a short journey to minnow status, and from minnow status another short journey to death) in my lifetime, and whilst I'm still young enough for it to make any difference to me.

[Calculon]

Looks like the ANC have managed to convince the IEC to reopen registration.

The IEC has been captured. Zille was proven right.

[Chilli]

Looks like the ANC have managed to convince the IEC to reopen registration.

The IEC has been captured. Zille was proven right.

Looks like it hey!

[Calculon]

It's just so fucking blatant, no pretense anymore


https://www.politicsweb.co.za/politics/ ... court--irr

[Sards]

It's just so fucking blatant, no pretense anymore


https://www.politicsweb.co.za/politics/ ... court--irr

There is absolutely nothing we can do about it

[_Os_]

It's just so fucking blatant, no pretense anymore


https://www.politicsweb.co.za/politics/ ... court--irr

This was always the entire point of cadre deployment. The ANC through its deployment committees gets its members into institutions that should be independent of party politics (the original goal was all media, military, police, parastatals, company board rooms, basically everything), then those people start tilting everything they can towards the ANC. There was a time not long ago when if you bothered to point this out, you got called crazy or rightwing or something else not good (usually the accuser was a clueless left wing older white person ... actual hardcore ANC people always just said "Ja, that's us, more power please"). Look where we are now, without the IRR and DA fighting this the ANC would've probably got away with avoiding an election this year. It's obvious which media outlets are captured, they're the ones that are only just lurching into election coverage now, which is most of them. There's only been one poll done on voting intention that's available to the public, these are usually commissioned and paid for by large media organisations and used to fuel the election news cycle, it gives them content to report on so is money well spent for media houses. The fact there's only one publicly available poll on voting intention in the 2021 election, which is happening next month, says a lot about the head space of many that own/run media in SA, if it's not ANC they don't report it or if they do they say it's evil.

The ANC can try whatever games they like, it will not stop them losing, other elections in the region show that. When ZANU-PF tried to change the Zim constitution to insert expropriation without compensation, they lost the referendum they called on their own constitutional change and Zimbabweans rejected ewc (every constituency in Bulawayo and Harare provinces said "no"). ZANU-PF then lost other elections after that even with rigging, the only reason they still exist is ANC ruled SA propped them up and forced into existence "coalitions" where the loser still had power, there's no country that'll do the same for the ANC. In Zambia the incumbent has just been voted out, on the way out he claimed election fraud (against him) even though he was president and had "heavily leaned" on Zambia's electoral commission to favour him.

The ANC can play all the crooked games they want. The ANC are still fucked.

[Blake]

It's just so fucking blatant, no pretense anymore


https://www.politicsweb.co.za/politics/ ... court--irr

This was always the entire point of cadre deployment. The ANC through its deployment committees gets its members into institutions that should be independent of party politics (the original goal was all media, military, police, parastatals, company board rooms, basically everything), then those people start tilting everything they can towards the ANC. There was a time not long ago when if you bothered to point this out, you got called crazy or rightwing or something else not good (usually the accuser was a clueless left wing older white person ... actual hardcore ANC people always just said "Ja, that's us, more power please"). Look where we are now, without the IRR and DA fighting this the ANC would've probably got away with avoiding an election this year. It's obvious which media outlets are captured, they're the ones that are only just lurching into election coverage now, which is most of them. There's only been one poll done on voting intention that's available to the public, these are usually commissioned and paid for by large media organisations and used to fuel the election news cycle, it gives them content to report on so is money well spent for media houses. The fact there's only one publicly available poll on voting intention in the 2021 election, which is happening next month, says a lot about the head space of many that own/run media in SA, if it's not ANC they don't report it or if they do they say it's evil.

The ANC can try whatever games they like, it will not stop them losing, other elections in the region show that. When ZANU-PF tried to change the Zim constitution to insert expropriation without compensation, they lost the referendum they called on their own constitutional change and Zimbabweans rejected ewc (every constituency in Bulawayo and Harare provinces said "no"). ZANU-PF then lost other elections after that even with rigging, the only reason they still exist is ANC ruled SA propped them up and forced into existence "coalitions" where the loser still had power, there's no country that'll do the same for the ANC. In Zambia the incumbent has just been voted out, on the way out he claimed election fraud (against him) even though he was president and had "heavily leaned" on Zambia's electoral commission to favour him.

The ANC can play all the crooked games they want. The ANC are still fucked.

Pretty much. That's the beauty of democracy. Yes, the wheels move slowly, but when you have to continually rig the system to stay in power, you only really paper over the cracks. Eventually the bottom will drop out where no amount of spin is going to turn the tide, and the foundation your house is standing on is completely rotten. Eventually the only way to stay in power is by force, and even then the institutions (army, police) might not back you as much as you think they do.

The modern ANC was built on illicit funding models, from kickbacks for government tenders, to rampant insider trading, to blatant looting of SEOs by deployed cadres. Now that all of those teats have been sucked dry, they have no sustainable funding models to sustain the lavish lifestyles the officials have become accustomed to. It's bloody glorious. Just a pity it took so long and so much damage has been done.

[Rinkals]

[Chilli]

Piet Snor is running for Mayor of the Drakenstein municipality.
If he gets it, it means that the can't coach the EP.


Vote GOODE Party!

[Sards]

Piet Snor is running for Mayor of the Drakenstein municipality.
If he gets it, it means that the can't coach the EP.


Vote GOODE Party!

Is that a Good thing

[handyman]

Swys de Bruin appointed as director of rugby at Shimlas.

[Lemoentjie]

Vokken ANC kunts.

Democracy is fully in retreat in SA.