NPR

petej wrote: Mon May 08, 2023 10:25 am

tabascoboy wrote: Mon May 08, 2023 10:04 am

This is a key reason why getting the Tories out is so important regardless of any understandable reservations about Starmer. There is a process/pathway to be followed which involves investigating brexit impact and only then can policy be changed.

I like neeps wrote: Mon May 08, 2023 11:40 am

petej wrote: Mon May 08, 2023 10:25 am

tabascoboy wrote: Mon May 08, 2023 10:04 am

This is a key reason why getting the Tories out is so important regardless of any understandable reservations about Starmer. There is a process/pathway to be followed which involves investigating brexit impact and only then can policy be changed.

Starmer is not going to go near an inquiry into Brexit, he and Labour will do absolutely everything they can to not talk about Brexit. The Tories would see it as a gift if Starmer was even a bit critical of Brexit as their media acolytes can cry betrayal.

C69 wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 9:07 pm

_Os_ wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 8:45 pm I watched Channel 4 News and Sky News this evening. All the journalists were saying this indicates a hung parliament, then they put their numbers up, and they've taken the percentage of the vote this local election and mapped it onto all 650 Westminster seats. But the Lib Dems are polling at 10%-ish UK wide and not 18%, and obviously independents aren't going to be getting 20%+. It seems like the media have forgotten this is only most of England outside London. Wales/Scotland/London are going to be adding a lot to Labour and very little to the Tories. This result indicates a Labour majority more than any other outcome imo.

Indeed such a strange conflation. Very poor political science indeed.

_Os_ wrote: Mon May 08, 2023 4:37 pm

C69 wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 9:07 pm

_Os_ wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 8:45 pm I watched Channel 4 News and Sky News this evening. All the journalists were saying this indicates a hung parliament, then they put their numbers up, and they've taken the percentage of the vote this local election and mapped it onto all 650 Westminster seats. But the Lib Dems are polling at 10%-ish UK wide and not 18%, and obviously independents aren't going to be getting 20%+. It seems like the media have forgotten this is only most of England outside London. Wales/Scotland/London are going to be adding a lot to Labour and very little to the Tories. This result indicates a Labour majority more than any other outcome imo.

Indeed such a strange conflation. Very poor political science indeed.

At risk of replying to myself (no one on the thread has really said much on the topic or seems to disagree), I've looked into the numbers a bit more over the last few days.

I looked at four constituencies (all in southern England) I know well enough to describe the type of people/economy/housing they have, taking 3 or 4 wards from each which again I know the demographics well enough to not need Google. 14 wards across 4 Westminster constituencies. I then compiled the results for each ward in the 2023/2022/2019 council election, the overall council result in each of those elections, and also the constituency result in the 2019/2017 general election. 8 pieces of data for each ward.

From looking at all that the one liner for this election is really simple, "people voted for whoever was most likely to remove the Tories". Not the convoluted mess the media have come up with of a hung parliament based on the Lib Dems/Greens/Others taking 40% of the vote in a GE, which is not likely at all. But instead simply "people voted for whoever was most likely to remove the Tories".

Sometimes this wasn't precise, a Lib Dem may have been second in a ward previously and the Lib Dems may have been doing okay-ish on the council (but not first or second), but Labour were second in the council and second in the constituency seat so Labour came from third in the ward to win. But the pattern remained whoever was second somewhere (and mostly the same party was second across different elections, so whatever imperfect information the voter had was correct anyway) behind the Tory, suddenly got half the votes from those placed 3rd and 4th and it looks like a portion of the previously Tory votes too. Sometimes this was very clear where the turnout was the same as 2019 (as in almost the exact same amount of votes), and the votes lost from the previously first placed Tory and the 3rd and 4th placed parties exactly matches the gain for the previously 2nd placed party who won. If any model isn't outputting something basic like "it's FPTP, people voted for whoever was second previously to remove the Tories", then it is over complicating things.

One interesting thing which I've not seen mentioned anywhere. Working class areas that previously had some UKIP footprint, have disappeared into the Labour vote on an almost 1:1 basis. The middle/upper class areas I looked at all had a past UKIP footprint that was tiny or didn't exist, so I'm less sure where those votes went to. Nowhere I looked at had Reform UK candidates (they fielded 500 candidates and got 6 councillors). It seems possible the Tory attempt to eat UKIP, meant they took all its headbanging membership and its policies, but many of UKIP's voters may have just never been prepared to vote Tory (even if they agree with Tory policies) because they're never going to trust them. Reform UK at the moment is incapable of filling the same space UKIP did at its peak (mostly because the Tories themselves now dominate that space, but also because Labour hasn't taken the bait and given people a reason to not vote Labour). In other words the Tory stuff on Rwanda and small boats, may be a total waste of time if the point is winning votes.

This election was heavily tilted in favour of the Tories. Council elections favour Tory voters because they're older and turn out more. It was held in England but not London or Birmingham and tilted towards shires, the Tory heartland. The Tories got 26% of the popular vote. If this is all repeated (not the literal results as the media are spinning it, but the clear intention that "people voted for whoever was most likely to remove the Tories") at a GE, then the Tories will be at risk of a really incredible defeat.

Tory MPs now talk about "18 months until the next election", meaning the general election. But the next set of elections are in May 2024, in London/Manchester/West Midlands, these are more favourable to Labour than this election was. Not only do they now need to turn this around (step one should be send loony Tory MPs to the backbenches, and prevent them talking non-stop on loony far right TV "news" channels), they also look committed to sacrificing momentum for a winter 2024 election. They're just kicking the can and hoping.

C69 wrote: Mon May 08, 2023 4:59 pm
Next May when the NHS and Public sector will be on strike again unless the magic money tree is watered and cash found to prevent public services grinding to a halt just before a general election.
I agree that these elections did not have the Labour stroing holds.
I think the last GE was very peculiar about Boris and Brexit. The red wall lent their votes to the Tories and hated Corbyn.
I think this may be the election when tactical voting may be at it's most prevalent with the Tories crying about electoral pacts etc

Liz Truss, the former prime minister, is to visit Taiwan next week, where she will deliver a speech likely to anger Beijing and potentially upset the UK government’s careful approach to China relations.
Speaking ahead of her visit, she said:

Taiwan is a beacon of freedom and democracy. I’m looking forward to showing solidarity with the Taiwanese people in person in the face of increasingly aggressive behaviour and rhetoric from the regime in Beijing.

The former Tory leader’s office said today that she is also expected to meet senior members of the Taiwanese government.

However, the trip comes after a warning by the foreign secretary James Cleverly that Britain should not “pull the shutters down” on China, as it would be counterproductive to the national interest

I like neeps wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 9:42 am From FT analysis:

"Britain’s privatised water and sewage companies paid £1.4bn in dividends in 2022, up from £540mn the previous year, despite rising household bills and a wave of public criticism over sewage outflows."

What a total failure Thatcher's privatisations have been. Oil wealth, housing, water. Sold the family china and the kids inheritance for the illusion of wealth.

SaintK wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 10:05 am Little Miss Vanity off on her travels again.............I wonder who's paying?

Liz Truss, the former prime minister, is to visit Taiwan next week, where she will deliver a speech likely to anger Beijing and potentially upset the UK government’s careful approach to China relations.
Speaking ahead of her visit, she said:

Taiwan is a beacon of freedom and democracy. I’m looking forward to showing solidarity with the Taiwanese people in person in the face of increasingly aggressive behaviour and rhetoric from the regime in Beijing.

The former Tory leader’s office said today that she is also expected to meet senior members of the Taiwanese government.

However, the trip comes after a warning by the foreign secretary James Cleverly that Britain should not “pull the shutters down” on China, as it would be counterproductive to the national interest

Hal Jordan wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 1:15 pm Just seen a description of Truss as causing as much chaos as a roomba that's driven through dogshit.

dpedin wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 10:17 am

I like neeps wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 9:42 am From FT analysis:

"Britain’s privatised water and sewage companies paid £1.4bn in dividends in 2022, up from £540mn the previous year, despite rising household bills and a wave of public criticism over sewage outflows."

What a total failure Thatcher's privatisations have been. Oil wealth, housing, water. Sold the family china and the kids inheritance for the illusion of wealth.

England, one of the few, if not the only, country in the world to privatise water and sewage systems. Water and sewage should be seen as a public health priority not as a vehicle for private sector making a profit. Since the days of John Snow and Cholera in the 1850's in London everyone knows a healthy water supply and safe sewage systems was a critical part of sustaining a healthy population, selling it off for profit, which mainly go to overseas corporations/Govs, has been a fecking disaster not just economically but for public health. It will be the death of the Tory Party.

dpedin wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 10:17 am

I like neeps wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 9:42 am From FT analysis:

"Britain’s privatised water and sewage companies paid £1.4bn in dividends in 2022, up from £540mn the previous year, despite rising household bills and a wave of public criticism over sewage outflows."

What a total failure Thatcher's privatisations have been. Oil wealth, housing, water. Sold the family china and the kids inheritance for the illusion of wealth.

England, one of the few, if not the only, country in the world to privatise water and sewage systems. Water and sewage should be seen as a public health priority not as a vehicle for private sector making a profit. Since the days of John Snow and Cholera in the 1850's in London everyone knows a healthy water supply and safe sewage systems was a critical part of sustaining a healthy population, selling it off for profit, which mainly go to overseas corporations/Govs, has been a fecking disaster not just economically but for public health. It will be the death of the Tory Party.

tabascoboy wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 11:25 am

SaintK wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 10:05 am Little Miss Vanity off on her travels again.............I wonder who's paying?

Liz Truss, the former prime minister, is to visit Taiwan next week, where she will deliver a speech likely to anger Beijing and potentially upset the UK government’s careful approach to China relations.
Speaking ahead of her visit, she said:

Taiwan is a beacon of freedom and democracy. I’m looking forward to showing solidarity with the Taiwanese people in person in the face of increasingly aggressive behaviour and rhetoric from the regime in Beijing.

The former Tory leader’s office said today that she is also expected to meet senior members of the Taiwanese government.

However, the trip comes after a warning by the foreign secretary James Cleverly that Britain should not “pull the shutters down” on China, as it would be counterproductive to the national interest

Well Beijing will have plenty of material with which to lambast and discredit the loon

shaggy wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 6:29 pm

dpedin wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 10:17 am

I like neeps wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 9:42 am From FT analysis:

"Britain’s privatised water and sewage companies paid £1.4bn in dividends in 2022, up from £540mn the previous year, despite rising household bills and a wave of public criticism over sewage outflows."

What a total failure Thatcher's privatisations have been. Oil wealth, housing, water. Sold the family china and the kids inheritance for the illusion of wealth.

England, one of the few, if not the only, country in the world to privatise water and sewage systems. Water and sewage should be seen as a public health priority not as a vehicle for private sector making a profit. Since the days of John Snow and Cholera in the 1850's in London everyone knows a healthy water supply and safe sewage systems was a critical part of sustaining a healthy population, selling it off for profit, which mainly go to overseas corporations/Govs, has been a fecking disaster not just economically but for public health. It will be the death of the Tory Party.

Not exactly a new concept though, the water system was built and operated by private companies for centuries and only nationalised about a hundred years ago. A return to its natural state?

petej wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 7:21 pm

shaggy wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 6:29 pm

dpedin wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 10:17 am

England, one of the few, if not the only, country in the world to privatise water and sewage systems. Water and sewage should be seen as a public health priority not as a vehicle for private sector making a profit. Since the days of John Snow and Cholera in the 1850's in London everyone knows a healthy water supply and safe sewage systems was a critical part of sustaining a healthy population, selling it off for profit, which mainly go to overseas corporations/Govs, has been a fecking disaster not just economically but for public health. It will be the death of the Tory Party.

Not exactly a new concept though, the water system was built and operated by private companies for centuries and only nationalised about a hundred years ago. A return to its natural state?

For centuries you say. So that would be the centuries while people died from cholera and other water based nasties and rivers were open sewers. Dumping shit in rivers at least is consistent with the private operating model then. Looking at London the "modern or proper" sewage system was very much publicly funded.

C69 wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 7:50 pm

petej wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 7:21 pm

shaggy wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 6:29 pm

Not exactly a new concept though, the water system was built and operated by private companies for centuries and only nationalised about a hundred years ago. A return to its natural state?

For centuries you say. So that would be the centuries while people died from cholera and other water based nasties and rivers were open sewers. Dumping shit in rivers at least is consistent with the private operating model then. Looking at London the "modern or proper" sewage system was very much publicly funded.

Shaggy just got err shagged dry prison style

Hal Jordan wrote: Wed May 10, 2023 4:28 pm The replies seem to doubt his veracity.

Hal Jordan wrote: Wed May 10, 2023 4:28 pm The replies seem to doubt his veracity.

SaintK wrote: Wed May 10, 2023 4:07 pm This is a major scandal waiting to happen.
Every time Tory blue eyed boy Houchen opens his mouth he finds himself drawing more interest into the finances and profits being made by his mates and their kids.
Private Eye have been on it for a couple of years and every edition brings new and very dodgy information

Hal Jordan wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 4:37 pm No peerage for him.

Aren't those freeport wankers the ones who were told it's not a good idea to dredge the silt from the river as it contained decades worth of toxic shit from heavy industries, did it anyway, dumped it at sea and caused a mass die off of crabs etc.?

SaintK wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 4:47 pm

Hal Jordan wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 4:37 pm No peerage for him.

Aren't those freeport wankers the ones who were told it's not a good idea to dredge the silt from the river as it contained decades worth of toxic shit from heavy industries, did it anyway, dumped it at sea and caused a mass die off of crabs etc.?

Yes according to some experts and all the local fisherman and related businesses who have lost their livelihoods. But no according to Coffey who is refusing to open another, wider investigation or even visit to meet with the locals

JM2K6 wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 4:55 pm Hmm from memory it's really not that straightforward and it's really unclear what the hell happened to the crabs...

shaggy wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 6:34 pm

JM2K6 wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 4:55 pm Hmm from memory it's really not that straightforward and it's really unclear what the hell happened to the crabs...

Agreed. The investigation carried out was inconclusive but they did confirm that the dredged material was not toxic as stated by numerous parties.

fishfoodie wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 8:18 pm

shaggy wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 6:34 pm

JM2K6 wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 4:55 pm Hmm from memory it's really not that straightforward and it's really unclear what the hell happened to the crabs...

Agreed. The investigation carried out was inconclusive but they did confirm that the dredged material was not toxic as stated by numerous parties.

Doesn't matter.

If you bury the existing washed surface under feet of rock, & soil you destroy an ecology that's been generated by thousands of tides, & it'll take years before thousands more tides recreate that ecology.

JM2K6 wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 8:22 pm

fishfoodie wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 8:18 pm

shaggy wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 6:34 pm

Agreed. The investigation carried out was inconclusive but they did confirm that the dredged material was not toxic as stated by numerous parties.

Doesn't matter.

If you bury the existing washed surface under feet of rock, & soil you destroy an ecology that's been generated by thousands of tides, & it'll take years before thousands more tides recreate that ecology.

I don't think that makes any sense. That's not the argument being made, and your argument essentially dictates no dredging of major rivers ever. More importantly, the dredging was at the river mouth, but it was the colonies along the coastline that saw the die-offs. The "ecology" of the river mouth was never really a concern.

fishfoodie wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 8:34 pm

JM2K6 wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 8:22 pm

fishfoodie wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 8:18 pm

Doesn't matter.

If you bury the existing washed surface under feet of rock, & soil you destroy an ecology that's been generated by thousands of tides, & it'll take years before thousands more tides recreate that ecology.

I don't think that makes any sense. That's not the argument being made, and your argument essentially dictates no dredging of major rivers ever. More importantly, the dredging was at the river mouth, but it was the colonies along the coastline that saw the die-offs. The "ecology" of the river mouth was never really a concern.

Well yeah, if you're going to dredge, your going to have an impact; & it'll depend on the currents & where they dredge, & where they dump the material they dredge where that happens, & in this case, the reason they had to dredge was its been years since the inlet actually was maintained, & surprise surprise, the crabs returned, & the local fishermen had been able to set pots there & make a living.

Now they want to re-open & dredge the channel, so the damage should be something that any environmental impact statement for the works would highlight, & the fishermen would express their concerns & request changes or look for some compensation for their loss of earnings, or whatever, because they now have to spend more on fuel to go to some other crab beds ?

This is exactly the process required here for putting in the footings for offshore turbines, I don't know why it should be different at the shoreline, than five miles out ?

I like neeps wrote: Fri May 12, 2023 7:52 am

This is quite funny but when she says 56m of investment she means 56m that will be an increase on our bills for a service we have no other provider for and when the choice motive has been removed from capitalism it doesn't work anymore as your profit is guaranteed and you have no motive to improve. You need competition!

I'd love to have the choice of price gauge water, sh*te in your river water, or we now have an incentive not to price gouge l or allow sh*t in rivers as now we have to invest in infrastructure water.

dpedin wrote: Fri May 12, 2023 9:17 am

I like neeps wrote: Fri May 12, 2023 7:52 am

This is quite funny but when she says 56m of investment she means 56m that will be an increase on our bills for a service we have no other provider for and when the choice motive has been removed from capitalism it doesn't work anymore as your profit is guaranteed and you have no motive to improve. You need competition!

I'd love to have the choice of price gauge water, sh*te in your river water, or we now have an incentive not to price gouge l or allow sh*t in rivers as now we have to invest in infrastructure water.

Whately was just plain terrible but allowed to spout shite by Bruce. The labour spokesman at least came clean on the question re denationalisation of the water industry - the Lab Gov won't be able to afford it! They need to go same route as with rail franchises and regulated and fine the arse of these water companies who will then hopefully cry wolf and walk away from the industry. The Tories have a lot to answer for by nationalising all these essential industries and turning them into cash machines for their mates.