Saffers

[_Os_]

KZN

eMadlangeni (Utrecht), ANC have gone from 56% to 29%, strong IFP come back from 22% to 35%. IFP 4 seats, ANC 4 seats, EFF/DA/NFP all on 1 seat. The DA will back the IFP if the IFP want a coalition, that gets to 5 seats. NFP is sort of an ANC front, so they're on 5. EFF decides who wins.

eNdumeni (Dundee), ANC have gone from 50% in 2016 to 36%. EFF also lost fractions of a percent (from 3.8% to 3.5%), but that means they lose their 1 seat. Another IFP comeback but the DA also growing. ANC 5 seats, IFP 5, DA 2, ABC 1. If the IFP want it, it's an IFP/DA coalition.

DA will govern uMngeni, with a majority of the seats. Decent chance of the DA governing one of these in a coalition with the IFP if the deal can be made. IFP may need the DA in some others also but they're still being counted.

ANC are down almost everywhere in KZN. EFF holding their tiny share of KZN votes outside Ethekwini (will likely grow in Ethekwini though). DA/IFP/NFP growing strongly everywhere. Decent chance the ANC lose their majority in KZN come 2024.

[_Os_]

and now this doozie in Cederberg

00% of votes have been counted in Cederberg municipality. The DA lost its majority in the Cederberg municipality, dropping from 55.2% in 2016, to 20.7% in the 2021 municipal elections. The party now has two seats in the council, down from six seats.

The ANC is the majority party at 35.5%, with local party Cederberg Eerste (CE) receiving 27.5% of the vote. The ANC has four seats and CE has three seats. The Patriotic Alliance and FF Plus have one seat each. This is a huge blow for the DA.

Time for Auntie Zille to fokof

You have to be very careful when you read reports like this. Some people are still fucking desperate for the DA to do badly and ANC do well. It is bad result for the DA, but that doesn't mean it was good for the ANC as this report is trying to claim. Cederberg has had issues for years btw, it's nothing to do with Zille.

The DA got 55% in 2016, and the ANC 35%. This time the DA got 21%, Cederberg Eerste 27.5%, PA 8%, FF+ 3%. So a residents party took the DA vote, and some other minnows grew too. The ANC are just sitting on the same hardcore voters they had in 2016, the same 35% and the same 4 seats out of 11. The ANC are not "the majority party" there, they don't have over 50%+1 of the vote, the ANC have a plurality of the vote which means the largest party when none have a majority.

So the CE now needs to form a coalition with the DA and other smaller parties. Or they put the ANC into power and see how that works out for them.

Also in the Western Cape to the immediate north of Cederberg, the DA have just won a plurality in Matzikama (Vredendal), growing from 5 seats to 6, the ANC has gone from 8 to 4. It's not as simple as "Zille must go".

It's actually GOOD who lost out in the Western Cape, a lot of really pissed off coloured people and they didn't manage to capitalise on much of it. Instead about 5 different parties grew in different places (including the DA in some places). Ironically a lot of them would be pissed at the way auntie Pat was treated (although this is far behind local issues), but they didn't vote for her and of course auntie Helen backed auntie Pat. In some of those municipalities GOOD will have to decide if it's not so good and put the ANC back into power.

Thinking a bit more about this.

If you try to list all the parties with seats in the WC and NC, you quickly get bogged down in an immense list of local residents parties. Some municipalities have two competing local residents parties each with 1 seat. None of these people will vote for these parties in a provincial/national election, because those parties don't exist in those elections.

So what has happened is, the ANC is now so dead in the WC and also to some extent in NC, that no one now fears the ANC being in power there and basically are ignoring it. So they're voting for smaller parties in the expectation that these parties will have to go into alliance with the DA (who they previously voted for) and the smaller party will extract concessions from the DA for their community. It's the same logic as some Afrikaners voting FF+ using the logic that "we can vote FF+ because they'll end up in a coalition with the DA anyway". Some of the municipalities this is happening in, are the best run in SA. Not sure it really follows, because it makes government harder and more chaotic the bigger the coalition is and you also may not end up with a DA government (as in Cederberg), but also maybe not depending on the mix of parties.

Thing is coloured voters didn't always back PA/GOOD/Cape Coloured Congress (all coloured nationalist parties) in this election preferring the residents parties. A lot of reasons for that probably, but coloured identity is much more fractured than Afrikaner identity (some coloureds would even vote FF+ long before ever voting PA/GOOD/CCC for example ... and also obviously there's multiple coloured nationalist parties and not just one). But one of the big reasons is, these voters fucking hate the ANC, and probably do not trust GOOD (who went into alliance with the ANC at national level)/PA/CCC not to sell them out to the ANC.

A lot of these guys that voted for residents parties in places like Cederberg are going to be returning to the DA in 2024, because that's who they were voting for anyway and there is no residents party at national level.

You can compare this to KZN for example. There's no residents groups there, because defeating the ANC is existential, after July it feels like life and death for some. IFP and DA doing well in KZN. NFP also doing well but weren't allowed to contest in 2016 (many of their voters backed the DA in 2016 and are anti-ANC, the leadership of the party are close to the ANC though, the rumour has always been its origin was helped by the Zuma faction to split the IFP vote).

[_Os_]

The Metros.

CT: DA majority.
NMB: DA projected to have 42%, ANC and EFF under 50% combined.
Mangaung: ANC projected to have 51%.
Buffalo City: Looks like an ANC majority (this metro and Mangaung were the strongest for the ANC in 2016)
Ethekwini: 8% counted, it's looking dreadful for the ANC in some township wards that have come in though.
Joburg: 24% counted, looks like even more parties than before to make a working coalition. ANC looking like the largest party but below 40%.
Ekurhuleni: ANC projected to have 38%, DA 29%, EFF 14%
Tshwane: DA look on course to the largest party again, if ActionSA are taking enough votes from the ANC and EFF then the EFF may not be needed.

News24 projections now in for every metro other than Buffalo City and Ethekwini.

CT: DA 58%, ANC 18%, EFF 4%, GOOD 4%, ACDP 3%.
NMB: DA 42%, ANC 39%, EFF 6%, ACDP 2%, FF+ 1%.
Mangaung: ANC 51%, DA 26%, EFF 10%, FF+ 4%.
Buffalo City: Not enough votes counted.
Ethekwini: Not enough votes counted.
Joburg: ANC 34%, DA 28%, Action SA 16%, EFF 11%, IFP 2%
Ekurhuleni: ANC 38%, DA 29%, EFF 14%, Action SA 6%, FF+ 4%
Tshwane: ANC 34%, DA 33%, EFF 11%, FF+ 8%, Action SA 8%

So making some predictions.

Majorities: CT a DA majority, Mangaung a very thin ANC majority (history says this becomes chaotic and the ANC finds ways to construct putting itself out of power to the opposition sometimes), Buffalo City an ANC majority.

NMB: DA coalition. The ANC and EFF look short of a majority, so the rest will form a majority. The DA is large and coherent in NMB now, so it should be stable, good news for the city that's so great it was named three times.
Ethekwini: Impossible to call, comes down to what the riots did to the moral of ordinary ANC voters (who mostly did not partake in the riots and stayed at home kak scared I expect). Could be an ANC majority, or ANC coalition with EFF/NFP, or an opposition coalition with IFP/DA/EFF. The animosity is very deep between the IFP and ANC in the city. If people switch from ANC to IFP that's a massive rebuke. A hung result or unclear ANC loss, could even produce more violence.
Joburg: ANC and EFF do not have a majority. Mashaba is very close to the EFF, but Action SA couldn't join the EFF in a coalition with the ANC without losing all its voters. So the outcome will be DA/Action SA/EFF. This basically replicates the situation when Mashaba was mayor and a puppet of the EFF. I'm not that confident that this'll be good for Joburg, but on the plus side the DA looks larger than Action SA and the EFF combined, so Mashaba can't pretend he's the DA and then sell out the DA's voters anymore.
Ekurhuleni: ANC and EFF are a majority there, so that looks likely. But otherwise it's the same calculation as in Joburg.
Tshwane: One of the most interesting. The ANC and EFF are very far from a majority. The DA/Action SA/FF+ could be capable of forming a majority. BUT Action SA/Mashaba and the EFF are very close, there's a chance in the horse trading over Joburg/Ekurhuleni/Tshwane (and maybe even Ethekwini), that Action SA basically demands the EFF get included. So you then have a DA/Action SA/EFF government. So the people who voted FF+ thinking "we can vote FF+ because they have to go into coalition with the DA anyway" end up totally fucking wrong and only weakening the DA hand (no doubt they will think the opposite and that it proves you must vote FF+). If the DA had been in mid-40% in Tshwane, the horse trading would've basically gone "we're at almost a majority, fit in or fuck off, no EFF please". This one is a big test for Action SA, because "vote Action SA get the EFF" is not going to work well with the people who voted for them (mostly ex-ANC voters that probably hate the EFF, with some ex-DA voters who also hate the ANC/EFF).

[_Os_]

Gauteng.

Midvaal has just declared its result. May as well go through the whole province (small enough to do a run down and the heart of the economy, so massively important). Already did the metros:

News24 projections:
Joburg: ANC 34%, DA 28%, Action SA 16%, EFF 11%, IFP 2%
Ekurhuleni: ANC 38%, DA 29%, EFF 14%, Action SA 6%, FF+ 4%
Tshwane: ANC 34%, DA 33%, EFF 11%, FF+ 8%, Action SA 8%

Some predictions:
Joburg: ANC and EFF do not have a majority. Mashaba is very close to the EFF, but Action SA couldn't join the EFF in a coalition with the ANC without losing all its voters. So the outcome will be DA/Action SA/EFF. This basically replicates the situation when Mashaba was mayor and a puppet of the EFF. I'm not that confident that this'll be good for Joburg, but on the plus side the DA looks larger than Action SA and the EFF combined, so Mashaba can't pretend he's the DA and then sell out the DA's voters anymore.
Ekurhuleni: ANC and EFF are a majority there, so that looks likely. But otherwise it's the same calculation as in Joburg.
Tshwane: One of the most interesting. The ANC and EFF are very far from a majority. The DA/Action SA/FF+ could be capable of forming a majority. BUT Action SA/Mashaba and the EFF are very close, there's a chance in the horse trading over Joburg/Ekurhuleni/Tshwane (and maybe even Ethekwini), that Action SA basically demands the EFF get included. So you then have a DA/Action SA/EFF government. So the people who voted FF+ thinking "we can vote FF+ because they have to go into coalition with the DA anyway" end up totally fucking wrong and only weakening the DA hand (no doubt they will think the opposite and that it proves you must vote FF+). If the DA had been in mid-40% in Tshwane, the horse trading would've basically gone "we're at almost a majority, fit in or fuck off, no EFF please". This one is a big test for Action SA, because "vote Action SA get the EFF" is not going to work well with the people who voted for them (mostly ex-ANC voters that probably hate the EFF, with some ex-DA voters who also hate the ANC/EFF).

Municipalities with results:

Lesedi result: ANC 50.43% (62.08% in 2016) 13 seats (16 in 2016), DA 20.32% (23.77%) 5 seats (6 in 2016), EFF 13.53% (10%) 4 seats (3 in 2016), FF+ 9.04% (3.46%) 3 seats (1 in 2016), SEFM 2.25% 1 seat.
26 seats in total.

Midvaal result: DA 62.69% (59.70% in 2016) 19 seats (17 in 2016), ANC 21.18% (32.08%) 6 seats (9), FF+ 6.25% (2.99%) 2 seats (1), EFF 5.03% (4.80%) 2 seats (2), TYM 1.82% 1 seat.
30 seats in total. The DA crushed it here, won almost every ward.

Rand West City result: ANC 45.33% (52.65% in 2016) 32 seats (37 in 2016), DA 23% (26.92%) 16 seats (19), EFF 15.05% (11.97%) 11 seats (8), FF+ 3.86% (1.57%) 3 seats (1), PA 2.81% (0.32%) 2 seats (0), Independent 2.39% 0 seats, AZAPO 1.26% (1.02%) 1 seat (1), RPP 1.21% (3.28%) 1 seat (2), AIC 1.04% (0) 1 seat (0), IFP 0.90% (0.94%) 1 seat (1), ACDP 0.81% (0.25%) 1 seat (0).
69 seats in total.

These municipalities are still counting, so no seat totals:

Emfuleni 70% counted: ANC 38.81% (55.63% in 2016), DA 28.26% (24.65%), EFF 15.31% (12.20% ), FF+ 7.20% (2.18%), PAC 1.55% (0.86%), NHM 1.48%, Community Solidarity Association 1.13%, ACDP 0.82%, Independent 0.71%, PA 0.7%.
90 seats in this municipality, even very small parties can get 1 seat.

Merafong City 80% counted: ANC 54.02% (53.96% in 2016), EFF 14.64% (16.18), DA 12.98% (21.72%), FF+ 6.34% (2.01%), MAOC 3.62%, Independent 2.07% and 0 seats, IFP 1.37% (1.36%), AIC 1.27% (2.14%).
55 seats so small parties have a shot at a seat.

Mogale City 90% counted: ANC 41.74% (48.84% in 2016), DA 30.62% (34.88%), EFF 14.36% (11.65%), FF+ 7.58% (2.29%), IFP 1.24% (0.71%), ACDP 0.99% (0.36%), PAC 0.79% (0.36%), ATM 0.61%.
77 seats so small parties have a shot at a seat.

Looks like:
Lesedi: Hung, maybe ANC coalition with the minnow on 1 seat.
Midvaal: DA majority.
Rand West City: Hung, ANC coalition with minnows (AZAPO and AIC have both gone into coalitions with the ANC before, PA probably up for it also, that gets the ANC to a majority).
Emfuleni: Hung, minnows will not be enough to push the ANC over the line. So the ANC needs the EFF. If the EFF turns the ANC down then it's a coalition of all the opposition parties, or no control chaos.
Merafong City: ANC majority. If they go below 50% by the end of the count, they'll likely need the EFF.
Mogale City: Hung, minnows will not be enough to push the ANC over he line. So the ANC needs the EFF.

So ... Midvaal is a DA majority, Merafong City looks like an ANC majority. The EFF has the ANC by the balls in Lesedi/Emfuleni/Mogale City, and by the time the horse trading gets going Rand West City gets pulled into this group also (ANC doesn't need the EFF here, but if the ANC want coalitions elsewhere this municipality will get dragged in also). Ekurhuleni gets dragged into any ANC agreement in the same way Rand West City does (because the ANC and EFF can get a majority there).

The ANC are going to be desperate to get any form of alliance out of the EFF. As that then gives the ANC the municipalities of Lesedi/Emfuleni/Mogale City/Rand West City and Ekurhuleni metro. Without the EFF the ANC are fucked in Gauteng (they are anyway, but having the EFF delays it). For the EFF going into bed with the ANC would piss off their voters, because they're deluded and think the EFF is a real opposition party. The point of the EFF was to get Malema and friends back into the ANC but at the top table. So the price the EFF are going demand will be massive, could be they wait until after the 2024 election and all these municipalities are rolled into a new agreement then and become ANC (because Malema wants to be a minister/deputy president, that can only happen after a national election).

Without EFF support the ANC will have at most three municipalities in Gauteng (out of six municipalities and three metros).

[FalseBayFC]

Thanks OS enjoying this analysis of yours. I'm a little bit concerned about all the coalitions that are about to take place. It's great to have the ANF held to account though and more eyes on the ball mean they'll be less likely to continue their plunder. But I can foresee a whole lot of paralysis and bickering and backstabbing going on. And not much productive governing. Hope I'm wrong though.

[‘tsek]

Thanks OS enjoying this analysis of yours. I'm a little bit concerned about all the coalitions that are about to take place. It's great to have the ANF held to account though and more eyes on the ball mean they'll be less likely to continue their plunder. But I can foresee a whole lot of paralysis and bickering and backstabbing going on. And not much productive governing. Hope I'm wrong though.

This. But more worrying for me would be the ANC reaction to these results. They are likely to have a policy adjustment away from a centrist position to a more populist approach to retake lost ground before the national elections.

[TheNatalShark]

At some point in time enough of the apartheid generations will have died out and the ANC won't get a national majority.

At that point the political parties will likely need to form national coalitions to govern. Best they start learning how to do so somewhere.

[FalseBayFC]

At some point in time enough of the apartheid generations will have died out and the ANC won't get a national majority.

At that point the political parties will likely need to form national coalitions to govern. Best they start learning how to do so somewhere.

True. But we have parties like the EFF who act in bad faith a lot of the time. At a municipal level this can be crippling.

[_Os_]

Thanks OS enjoying this analysis of yours. I'm a little bit concerned about all the coalitions that are about to take place. It's great to have the ANF held to account though and more eyes on the ball mean they'll be less likely to continue their plunder. But I can foresee a whole lot of paralysis and bickering and backstabbing going on. And not much productive governing. Hope I'm wrong though.

There's going to be some chaos in some places, but others will have multiple party coalitions and be fine. It's like I told Average Joe on this thread weeks back. The electoral system SA is using is designed to produce multiple parties and coalitions. The power of the ANC stopped that happening, that's coming to an end so it's starting to work as it's designed to. Over time a party that's disruptive and not capable of governing in a coalition will lose out, the EFF are notorious for that nonsense and they haven't done well this time considering the millions of ANC voters who decided not to vote. It looks like the EFF still doesn't have a single majority in any municipality, people talk them up because they often end up as a king maker, but they end up a king maker because they're small and because they're suspected of being capable of getting in bed with the ANC, which is the same as saying they're suspected of being criminal looters. People understand all this about them.

This. But more worrying for me would be the ANC reaction to these results. They are likely to have a policy adjustment away from a centrist position to a more populist approach to retake lost ground before the national elections.

The ANC aren't in the centre (other than being so large it sort of makes them the centre whatever they do), they're extreme. If the ANC want to get even more extreme, they'll just decline even faster. South Africans aren't very keen on the ANC are offering and haven't been for awhile now, South Africans tend to be sensible and quite conservative the ANC are offering the opposite of that which is why the ANC are losing millions and millions of their voters.

At some point in time enough of the apartheid generations will have died out and the ANC won't get a national majority.

At that point the political parties will likely need to form national coalitions to govern. Best they start learning how to do so somewhere.

We're there right now.

It looks like about 6 million people voted ANC. Down from the 8 million who voted ANC in 2016/2011, or the 10 million in 2019, or the 11 million in 2014/2009/2004. So the ANC are down 2 million to 5 million votes. These people are different to people who just never vote. They're people in the habit of voting and understand at least some of the arguments around voting and why you should do it. They're not all going to sit around not voting forever, nor are they all going to return to voting ANC (the ANC is fucked, so whatever reason they have to stop voting ANC, it's not going away). They could've switched straight to the EFF, and basically just kept voting for a re-branded more extreme ANC, but they didn't. So there's 2-5 million ex-ANC voters that will: 1. Never vote again 2. Swallow their pride and vote for a sensible party that opposes the ANC and isn't incompetent. Basically their only options are the DA, Action SA if Mashaba doesn't fail, some minnows like Cope.

The ANC will be fighting for it's life in 2024. It's now gone below 50%, that's a huge psychological barrier, they're not invincible after all. The IFP are rebuilding their heartland. The ANC and EFF combined are below 2/3s (if they don't change the constitution soon and steal loads of land, they may never be able to, but if they do that they will also lose support because it'll be a shit show which is precisely why they haven't done it ... it's the same as the riots in July winning them nothing).

They're now heavily fucked in 2024. If they get say 9 million or 8 million in 2024 (a good result for them based on their performance this time), and the EFF continue to disgust vastly more people than they impress (highly probable), then the ANC loses most of the provinces in 2024 (much more probable than you'll find anyone in the media admitting) and if the millions of voters that have given up on them turn out for parties which oppose them then they'll go below 50% too.

They really are on death's door now.

[FalseBayFC]

They really are on death's door now.

If that's true, I find it both an exhilarating and terrifying prospect. That's a gut reaction though, I keep on hoping for a Clem Sumpteresque high road scenario. But I suspect it will be a frustrating low to middle road struggle.

[Big Nipper]

Ah, I see John Steenhuizen is throwing <checks notes> Mmusi Maimane under the bus for their disastrous outing at the ballot box. You just cannot make this shit up

https://mg.co.za/politics/2021-11-02-st ... ign=buffer

Steenhuisen hints at Maimane’s exit hurting the DA at the polls

Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen has dismissed suggestions that his weak leadership is at root of the party’s downward trajectory, with projections pointing to it losing control of the Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay metros in this week’s local government elections.

Speaking to journalists on Tuesday, Steenhuisen apportioned some of the blame on the exit of Mmusi Maimane as DA leader after the party’s poor showing in the 2019 general vote.

Numbers from the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) suggest that the two biggest parties — the DA and the governing ANC — will see a significant drop in voter support. The ANC’s share is expected to fall from 54.5% in 2016 to 46.7%, and the DA is expected to decline from 27% five years ago to 22.6% this year.

[_Os_]

They really are on death's door now.

If that's true, I find it both an exhilarating and terrifying prospect. That's a gut reaction though, I keep on hoping for a Clem Sumpteresque high road scenario. But I suspect it will be a frustrating low to middle road struggle.

Smuts did say that in South Africa the best and the worst never happens.

If the ANC survive 2024 they definitely will not survive 2029. Their majorities were very thin in quite a few provinces after 2019 (this was ignored by the media), it wouldn't take much for those provinces to be lost even if they kept a national majority. After they've basically lost an election (this one), and lost WC/NC/KZN/Gauteng in 2024 (maybe some others too), then they themselves will start thinking they're fucked even if they're still hanging on nationally. A lot of the country will then not have ANC majorities through the municipal/metro and provincial levels of government and only a thin ANC majority at national level. And this is all if the millions and millions of ex-ANC voters don't even pitch for DA/Action SA/IFP/Cope and just continue not voting, if they do turn out it's over for the ANC overnight in about two and a half years from now.

The only real danger is a growing EFF, but people are smart enough to see through Malema and friends. The amount of positive media coverage the EFF has got down the years compared to the DA is insane, but a majority EFF municipality is still not something that exists in the real world. To survive 2024 the ANC will either need a thin majority, or a coalition with the EFF. The EFF are strongly disliked by most though, so that'll just damage the ANC further.

[assfly]

I wouldn't say he's throwing him under the bus, probably just stating the obvious. MM had become a key figure for the DA; his departure (and replacement being from the wrong demographic) was always going to have an impact.

This whole election is just depressing. I'm glad to see the ANC losing ground, but still way too many people voting for them. Such a lack of genuine leaders in SA at the moment.

[Calculon]

The DA did quite a bit better than the last election in 2019. Let's hope for South Africa's sake that they maintain this trajectory.

In Nelson Mandela Bay, the party is projected to decline from 46.7% five years ago to 44.1% this year. The party received 39.4% of the votes in the 2019 general election. In Tshwane, the party is expected to receive 34.3% of the vote, from 43.1% in 2016. In 2019, it garnered 29.5%.

In Johannesburg, the CSIR projections indicate that the blue party will receive 31.4% of the votes, from 38.5% in 2016 and 29.6% in 2019.

“We will wait until the results come in. The benchmark is not 2016: the benchmark is the last election. You have 20.7 % of the votes in the last election. We were happy with growth, consolidation and progress from the DA from that election. We came out of that election with a leader having walked off the job. It’s very few parties in the world that survive that. I’m going to be very pleased with growth and momentum in this particular election,” Steenhuisen insisted on Tuesday.

[_Os_]

Ah, I see John Steenhuizen is throwing <checks notes> Mmusi Maimane under the bus for their disastrous outing at the ballot box. You just cannot make this shit up

The DA had 4.1 million voters in 2016 and 3.6 million in 2019. It doesn't make sense saying the DA has lost x amount compared 2016, when it had already lost 500k of those 2016 voters by 2019.

There's basically two groups of voters the DA has lost. Coloured voters to a variety of parties (but most coloureds still vote DA) and a much smaller loss of Afrikaner voters to the FF+ which seems to have been stemmed now (most Afrikaners still vote DA though). Part of the reason for losing both groups was the DA under Maimane being very keen on race based policies, when the entire point of the DA was non-racialism and people's talent and ability mattering not their race. Not everyone is as keyed into politics as someone who even knows who Steenhuisen is (you can't spell his name properly yet for example), about half the electorate don't know who he is. Politics is a long game, for a lot of people (eg rural coloured voters, working class Afrikaner voters) the DA is still the party that betrayed them and said they could be replaced with black voters.

So take Tshwane for example (the report you quote says the DA is losing control of the metro, it had 42.15% after 2016 it didn't have a majority, the same in NMB not a majority after 2016), if you want to compare the DA's 2021 result in Tshwane to a previous result, then because it had already lost Afrikaner voters there in 2019 comparing to 2016 distorts Steenhuisen's performance. So instead you have to model what the Tshwane metro result would've been for the DA using the 2019 result. Then from that decide if the DA's losses are accelerating or have been stemmed.

I wouldn't say he's throwing him under the bus, probably just stating the obvious. MM had become a key figure for the DA; his departure (and replacement being from the wrong demographic) was always going to have an impact.

This whole election is just depressing. I'm glad to see the ANC losing ground, but still way too many people voting for them. Such a lack of genuine leaders in SA at the moment.

If it was as easy as "select the black guy" then Maimane would've added support in 2019 (he didn't even add black supporters), Cope wouldn't have failed, Mashaba would have a majority in Joburg (like he said he would), and so on.

It's only a depressing election for ANC supporters and their friends in the media. It's actually a historic election and a huge ANC defeat.

[Big Nipper]

You are completely delusional if you think this election was a success for the DA, but then again you are the biggest DA simp I have met

[_Os_]

You are completely delusional if you think this election was a success for the DA, but then again you are the biggest DA simp I have met

No rebuttal then? Thought not. Steenhuisen was correct if you compare 2021 to 2016, you're dumping Maimane's mess on him. You have to compare to 2019 because the amount of voters the DA lost between 2016 and 2019 was so large. This isn't easy because one is a national election the other a municipal election (that was also a snap election with a lower turnout).

Yes all the cool kids mocked the DA for the last quarter of a century, the lefty moron types that were backing the ANC deep into the 2000s, the type who've been wrong about everything. I didn't "simp" for the DA before 2019 though did I, I said they were fucked and the FF+ were going to grow, you mocked me and said I didn't know what I was talking about I recall?

Some advice for you. All the cool kids always attack every DA rep, unless that DA rep leaves the DA and starts attacking the DA, then suddenly the cool kids love that ex-DA rep. So the only DA person the cool kids like are the failures who give up and have no integrity. Hmm, maybe think a bit more before backing a party like Action SA that has someone like John Moodey in it? Just a thought.

[Big Nipper]

You are completely delusional if you think this election was a success for the DA, but then again you are the biggest DA simp I have met

No rebuttal then? Thought not. Steenhuisen was correct if you compare 2021 to 2016, you're dumping Maimane's mess on him. You have to compare to 2019 because the amount of voters the DA lost between 2016 and 2019 was so large. This isn't easy because one is a national election the other a municipal election (that was also a snap election with a lower turnout).

Yes all the cool kids mocked the DA for the last quarter of a century, the lefty moron types that were backing the ANC deep into the 2000s, the type who've been wrong about everything. I didn't "simp" for the DA before 2019 though did I, I said they were fucked and the FF+ were going to grow, you mocked me and said I didn't know what I was talking about I recall?

Some advice for you. All the cool kids always attack every DA rep, unless that DA rep leaves the DA and starts attacking the DA, then suddenly the cool kids love that ex-DA rep. So the only DA person the cool kids like are the failures who give up and have no integrity. Hmm, maybe think a bit more before backing a party like Action SA that has someone like John Moodey in it? Just a thought.

The DA shed 5% of the votes from the last cycle, in a cycle where the ANC has been the weakest in their history. They have lost more than 15% of the coloured vote, they have been reamed by Mashaba in Gauteng. This was an absolute disaster for the DA, and Steenhuizen and Zille need to leave ASAP for them to become credible opposition again. My prediction is that ActionSA will campaign nation wide for 2024, which will cause the DA to lose even more ground should they maintain the status quo. If they do, expect them to end with 15 - 18% of the national vote

[_Os_]

The DA shed 5% of the votes from the last cycle, in a cycle where the ANC has been the weakest in their history. They have lost more than 15% of the coloured vote, they have been reamed by Mashaba in Gauteng. This was an absolute disaster for the DA, and Steenhuizen and Zille need to leave ASAP for them to become credible opposition again. My prediction is that ActionSA will campaign nation wide for 2024, which will cause the DA to lose even more ground should they maintain the status quo. If they do, expect them to end with 15 - 18% of the national vote

Are you going to keep doing the moron thing where you ignore my simple point that the DA lost 500k voters in 2019 compared to 2016. Their projected percentage of the vote is up compared to 2019.

Action SA are projected to do well in Joburg, they are not projected to do well in other places they contested, smaller than the DA everywhere they contested (including Joburg), they're projected to be 2% in Ethekwini, they're projected to be the same size as the FF+ in Tshwane. This is not a serious party. But then you're not a serious person, if a white politician came out with the xenophobia Mashaba does, you would hate him/her. You're backing SA's Trump, someone far to the right of someone like Zille, someone who was head of the Free Market Foundation a think tank funded by Rupert! They're not going to do anything to the DA either, you've decided they've done well and hurt the DA outside Joburg but that doesn't make it true. It's an absolute minefield making a party strong nationally, it takes decades, the EFF still has hardly any representation outside the north and the big metros for example. He's not going to walk into somewhere like KZN or the Western Cape and do anything at all to the DA. He will not even be able to take a short car journey from Joburg to Midvaal and do anything to the DA there.

What Action SA is, is a rich populist with a lot of former DA backroom staff behind him that were got rid of because they were dodgy, it's the same people that led the DA into the mess of 2019. That mess didn't come from nowhere, it came from opportunists doing damaging short term orientated things. Mashaba is not going to fund his pet project or stick around when the hard times come, which they surely will with the crew he's assembled. I suspect like Cope it'll just end up a gateway to the DA for some black voters fed up with the ANC.

I love this "Steenhuizen and Zille need to leave ASAP". That's not how it works, neither are ever going to leave the DA, they've given decades of their life to it. People like that are the DA. They didn't pop out of the ground from nowhere they were selected by the members and elected representatives, they're there because the party selected them. If the party de-selects them, they will still be in the party because it's a large part of their life. People who quit after their first setback then attack the DA from the outside, the DA is better off without. Neither Mashaba or Maimane had to leave, both chose to, Zille pleaded with Maimane to remain an MP.

Some more advice for you Nips. Be careful not to end up like the DA haters that turn off all critical facilities and chase any new party that comes along regardless of what it is, with the same passion as a dog chasing a car. Many of these morons backed the EFF when it first came along, whilst decrying the DA, a bit embarrassing. The main reason they all still hate Zille is jealousy.

[OomStruisbaai]

:Kaap Agulhas Municipality is a hung. War de vok it means sound like kak.

[Big Nipper]

The DA shed 5% of the votes from the last cycle, in a cycle where the ANC has been the weakest in their history. They have lost more than 15% of the coloured vote, they have been reamed by Mashaba in Gauteng. This was an absolute disaster for the DA, and Steenhuizen and Zille need to leave ASAP for them to become credible opposition again. My prediction is that ActionSA will campaign nation wide for 2024, which will cause the DA to lose even more ground should they maintain the status quo. If they do, expect them to end with 15 - 18% of the national vote

Are you going to keep doing the moron thing where you ignore my simple point that the DA lost 500k voters in 2019 compared to 2016. Their projected percentage of the vote is up compared to 2019.

Action SA are projected to do well in Joburg, they are not projected to do well in other places they contested, smaller than the DA everywhere they contested (including Joburg), they're projected to be 2% in Ethekwini, they're projected to be the same size as the FF+ in Tshwane. This is not a serious party. But then you're not a serious person, if a white politician came out with the xenophobia Mashaba does, you would hate him/her. You're backing SA's Trump, someone far to the right of someone like Zille, someone who was head of the Free Market Foundation a think tank funded by Rupert! They're not going to do anything to the DA either, you've decided they've done well and hurt the DA outside Joburg but that doesn't make it true. It's an absolute minefield making a party strong nationally, it takes decades, the EFF still has hardly any representation outside the north and the big metros for example. He's not going to walk into somewhere like KZN or the Western Cape and do anything at all to the DA. He will not even be able to take a short car journey from Joburg to Midvaal and do anything to the DA there.

What Action SA is, is a rich populist with a lot of former DA backroom staff behind him that were got rid of because they were dodgy, it's the same people that led the DA into the mess of 2019. That mess didn't come from nowhere, it came from opportunists doing damaging short term orientated things. Mashaba is not going to fund his pet project or stick around when the hard times come, which they surely will with the crew he's assembled. I suspect like Cope it'll just end up a gateway to the DA for some black voters fed up with the ANC.

I love this "Steenhuizen and Zille need to leave ASAP". That's not how it works, neither are ever going to leave the DA, they've given decades of their life to it. People like that are the DA. They didn't pop out of the ground from nowhere they were selected by the members and elected representatives, they're there because the party selected them. If the party de-selects them, they will still be in the party because it's a large part of their life. People who quit after their first setback then attack the DA from the outside, the DA is better off without. Neither Mashaba or Maimane had to leave, both chose to, Zille pleaded with Maimane to remain an MP.

Some more advice for you Nips. Be careful not to end up like the DA haters that turn off all critical facilities and chase any new party that comes along regardless of what it is, with the same passion as a dog chasing a car. Many of these morons backed the EFF when it first came along, whilst decrying the DA, a bit embarrassing. The main reason they all still hate Zille is jealousy.

You claim I am an ActionSA supporter, but nothing could be further from the truth. The DA is also pandering to the right inclined with a swart gevaar message, fearmongering with threats of EFF taking over etc. So please do not throw stones from that rickety glass house you call the DA. The simple facts were laid out by Zille that they are happy to be the 20% party. This means they have no interests in being a party that represents the people of SA. They are clearly pandering to one demographic, and they are still losing votes in that demographic.

[FalseBayFC]

You are completely delusional if you think this election was a success for the DA, but then again you are the biggest DA simp I have met

No rebuttal then? Thought not. Steenhuisen was correct if you compare 2021 to 2016, you're dumping Maimane's mess on him. You have to compare to 2019 because the amount of voters the DA lost between 2016 and 2019 was so large. This isn't easy because one is a national election the other a municipal election (that was also a snap election with a lower turnout).

Yes all the cool kids mocked the DA for the last quarter of a century, the lefty moron types that were backing the ANC deep into the 2000s, the type who've been wrong about everything. I didn't "simp" for the DA before 2019 though did I, I said they were fucked and the FF+ were going to grow, you mocked me and said I didn't know what I was talking about I recall?

Some advice for you. All the cool kids always attack every DA rep, unless that DA rep leaves the DA and starts attacking the DA, then suddenly the cool kids love that ex-DA rep. So the only DA person the cool kids like are the failures who give up and have no integrity. Hmm, maybe think a bit more before backing a party like Action SA that has someone like John Moodey in it? Just a thought.

The DA shed 5% of the votes from the last cycle, in a cycle where the ANC has been the weakest in their history. They have lost more than 15% of the coloured vote, they have been reamed by Mashaba in Gauteng. This was an absolute disaster for the DA, and Steenhuizen and Zille need to leave ASAP for them to become credible opposition again. My prediction is that ActionSA will campaign nation wide for 2024, which will cause the DA to lose even more ground should they maintain the status quo. If they do, expect them to end with 15 - 18% of the national vote

Depends on how ActionSA kick on. COPE did quite well in 2009 as new kids on the block but had collapsed into irrelevance within 5 years. The DA has an astute and committed base of on the ground campaigners. I have a feeling that ActionSA's supporters are hungry and impatient. If they don't see a material change to their circumstances they'll look for the next over-promising under-delivering populist.

[_Os_]

:Kaap Agulhas Municipality is a hung. War de vok it means sound like kak.

It just means there's no majority party and there'll be a coalition. Which in that municipality means the DA (5 seats) and the FF+ (1 seat), or the DA (5 seats) and the DLRP (2 seats), will form a coalition.

[FalseBayFC]

:Kaap Agulhas Municipality is a hung. War de vok it means sound like kak.

It just means there's no majority party and there'll be a coalition. Which in that municipality means the DA (5 seats) and the FF+ (1 seat), or the DA (5 seats) and the DLRP (2 seats), will form a coalition.

It means that soon you will have no rubbish collection and your sewage plant is going to break down by next year. Have fun building yourself a long drop.

[Calculon]

You claim I am an ActionSA supporter, but nothing could be further from the truth.

So who do you vote for or are you just too cool for voting?

[Big Nipper]

You claim I am an ActionSA supporter, but nothing could be further from the truth.

So who do you vote for or are you just too cool for voting?

I voted for a local PE residents group called AIM

https://www.aim4change.org.za/

[_Os_]

You claim I am an ActionSA supporter, but nothing could be further from the truth. The DA is also pandering to the right inclined with a swart gevaar message, fearmongering with threats of EFF taking over etc. So please do not throw stones from that rickety glass house you call the DA. The simple facts were laid out by Zille that they are happy to be the 20% party. This means they have no interests in being a party that represents the people of SA. They are clearly pandering to one demographic, and they are still losing votes in that demographic.

Yes, just like all the people years back who would bang on about the EFF and never really criticise them at all, then say they weren't EFF supporters.

Back on planet reality, "the rickety glass house" is pulling in results no other opposition ever has. Is doing everything it can to grow, something anyone who has paid even the smallest bit of attention would realise is extremely difficult when most people vote ANC or don't vote. And explicitly says over and over represents everyone, has that in all their policy, has people of every race group in leadership positions, etc etc.

The mistake the people you're listening to (lefties that chase every new party regardless of what it is, like a dog chasing a car) in the media always make, is they think if the DA disappears all those DA voters vote for some socialist party or other. They bizarrely think it's the DA stopping them having the party they want. So they try to damage the DA. This has been carrying on for a quarter of a century now. Maimane was naive and listened to these people, he actually did damage the DA like they always wanted to happen. They thought what Maimane got up (race based policies etc) would suddenly mean a large socialist party of their dreams would appear. Instead it spawned a stronger FF+, something they don't care about because they don't think the FF+ stole their lunch.

They moan about the DA because they think the DA is stealing their lunch, and the DA should be their party. But in a quarter of a century they have not attempted to start a socialist party separate from the ANC/SACP/EFF mess, because they know it would fail. So they can't start their own party because it would fail and no one would vote for it, but can change everything about the DA and people would vote for it? Are you seeing a bit of a problem here?

I think they would be better off admitting they have no political home and are a tiny minority much smaller than the FF+, much smaller than Cope even, a tiny tribe of English speakers somewhere to the left of Lenin that mostly live in Cape Town and have outsized media platforms. They're not going to do that though.

[Calculon]

You claim I am an ActionSA supporter, but nothing could be further from the truth.

So who do you vote for or are you just too cool for voting?

I voted for a local PE residents group called AIM

https://www.aim4change.org.za/

Cool, but I meant in national elections.

[Big Nipper]

So who do you vote for or are you just too cool for voting?

I voted for a local PE residents group called AIM

https://www.aim4change.org.za/

Cool, but I meant in national elections.

I voted DA in the last National elections, but not sure what I will do come 2024.

[Blake]

Pretty stoked about the outcome of the elections so far!

Would have loved the ANC to lose more and be comepletely kneecapped everywhere, but I’ll take what I can get. Cut off their unfetter access to state and municipal funds and they wither and die. It takes a while, but it is inevitable.

The rise of local community-based civic organizations has been interesting. I’m not sure how I feel about if, but it can be good if the representatives are comepetant locals and trustworthy coalition partners. At local level you need some kingmakers to stongarm the major parties in the big cities that are may be a bit disconnected from local issues. Just hope they are competent and trustworthy and are not enticed by the ANC & EFF, otherwise those councils will swing back and forth like Knysna and Plett and Potch did for years.

Lots of pressure on the DA too. While the election went pretty much as expected for them, governing in coalitions has been a challenge for them…mostly because the EFF has been predictably unpredictable and unreliable, but also because they have a history of bullying coalition partners. They will have to tread lightly and play the long game…keep the ANCs hands off the treasury, even if it costs you a ceremonial mayor or deputy-mayor spot here or there.

[Blake]

Action SA’s showing have been phenomenal and I think they might be a real force in 2024. They might just manage to do wat Cope and Mmaimane’s DA failed to do; offer a political home to disgruntled ANC voters. One that doesn’t come with baggage (EFF, COPE) and doesn’t feel like they are “betraying” the ANC (DA).

The challenge they will have is to scale up with competent people. New organizations like this have very theoretical constitutions that haven’t been tested by internal jockeying for power and influence. Now that they are contenders, they will attract some egos, and if Mashaba can’t keep things in tact they could prove a disappointment. Their inexperience in politics might also hinder them (like not registering properly for the ballots they were contesting).

Time will tell, but I have to admit, they exceeded my expectations.

[OomStruisbaai]

:Kaap Agulhas Municipality is a hung. War de vok it means sound like kak.

It just means there's no majority party and there'll be a coalition. Which in that municipality means the DA (5 seats) and the FF+ (1 seat), or the DA (5 seats) and the DLRP (2 seats), will form a coalition.

It means that soon you will have no rubbish collection and your sewage plant is going to break down by next year. Have fun building yourself a long drop.

No worries, we are on the jam lorrie system. With the flooding we had the sewage plant ran into the ocean.

[_Os_]

I voted DA in the last National elections, but not sure what I will do come 2024.

Stop being a pussy and just say you're ASA to the core, a devout follower of SA's Trump, and Mashaba fluffer.

I could respect that more.

Thinking a bit more about it, there is a way Mashaba could do well in 2024. It's not by targeting the DA though, I'm not convinced that's actually worked in Gauteng it definitely hasn't in KZN, he'll just end up a chump leading a minnow party doing that. The route for him is to target ex-ANC voters, ones still in the habit of voting that have only given up recently, people that live in the big cities and don't have a strong tribal identity. He should probably forget about the Western Cape and Northern Cape entirely, and only focus on Gauteng and big metros where there's a large urban black working class/middle class (the elite support the ANC). Cope got nearly 2 million from this group of people in 2009, the disaffected are much larger now than in 2009. In Joburg (the only place ASA did well where it contested in my opinion) the DA and ASA are larger as separate entities than the DA was alone in 2016, so this could work.

The DA will be targeting the same group of people, and as the outright DA win of a municipality in KZN shows they're more capable than the media gives them credit for. But Mashaba probably does have more of a shot with this demographic just because it's a new party. So lets say he does extremely well and gets 3 million votes in 2023, and the DA rebuilds from 2019 back to around 4 million, and the IFP rebuilds itself back to the 1 million it had in the 2000s, FF+ on a couple of 100k. That's a realistic best case scenario. A workable opposition coalition then has 8 million votes, maybe not enough to remove the ANC/EFF, but it could be close.

Your baas will have to put a lot more work into Gauteng/Mangaung/Ethekwini/NMB to make that work though. Only the Joburg result is near the numbers he needs to be pulling, so I remain to be convinced he can do it. If he pulls it off he becomes the president though.

[average joe]

Correct me if I'm wrong but Mashaba is from the DA right? Was he not the DA appointed mayor in Joburg that got ousted by the EFF running to the ANC because they did not like him.

[Big Nipper]

I voted DA in the last National elections, but not sure what I will do come 2024.

Stop being a pussy and just say you're ASA to the core, a devout follower of SA's Trump, and Mashaba fluffer.

I could respect that more.

Thinking a bit more about it, there is a way Mashaba could do well in 2024. It's not by targeting the DA though, I'm not convinced that's actually worked in Gauteng it definitely hasn't in KZN, he'll just end up a chump leading a minnow party doing that. The route for him is to target ex-ANC voters, ones still in the habit of voting that have only given up recently, people that live in the big cities and don't have a strong tribal identity. He should probably forget about the Western Cape and Northern Cape entirely, and only focus on Gauteng and big metros where there's a large urban black working class/middle class (the elite support the ANC). Cope got nearly 2 million from this group of people in 2009, the disaffected are much larger now than in 2009. In Joburg (the only place ASA did well where it contested in my opinion) the DA and ASA are larger as separate entities than the DA was alone in 2016, so this could work.

The DA will be targeting the same group of people, and as the outright DA win of a municipality in KZN shows they're more capable than the media gives them credit for. But Mashaba probably does have more of a shot with this demographic just because it's a new party. So lets say he does extremely well and gets 3 million votes in 2023, and the DA rebuilds from 2019 back to around 4 million, and the IFP rebuilds itself back to the 1 million it had in the 2000s, FF+ on a couple of 100k. That's a realistic best case scenario. A workable opposition coalition then has 8 million votes, maybe not enough to remove the ANC/EFF, but it could be close.

Your baas will have to put a lot more work into Gauteng/Mangaung/Ethekwini/NMB to make that work though. Only the Joburg result is near the numbers he needs to be pulling, so I remain to be convinced he can do it. If he pulls it off he becomes the president though.

Nah, I won't vote for a xenophobe like Mashaba. Os, what do you make of the DA losing 23% of the coloured vote? Pretty much a pasting in my books

[OomStruisbaai]

I voted DA in the last National elections, but not sure what I will do come 2024.

Stop being a pussy and just say you're ASA to the core, a devout follower of SA's Trump, and Mashaba fluffer.

I could respect that more.

Thinking a bit more about it, there is a way Mashaba could do well in 2024. It's not by targeting the DA though, I'm not convinced that's actually worked in Gauteng it definitely hasn't in KZN, he'll just end up a chump leading a minnow party doing that. The route for him is to target ex-ANC voters, ones still in the habit of voting that have only given up recently, people that live in the big cities and don't have a strong tribal identity. He should probably forget about the Western Cape and Northern Cape entirely, and only focus on Gauteng and big metros where there's a large urban black working class/middle class (the elite support the ANC). Cope got nearly 2 million from this group of people in 2009, the disaffected are much larger now than in 2009. In Joburg (the only place ASA did well where it contested in my opinion) the DA and ASA are larger as separate entities than the DA was alone in 2016, so this could work.

The DA will be targeting the same group of people, and as the outright DA win of a municipality in KZN shows they're more capable than the media gives them credit for. But Mashaba probably does have more of a shot with this demographic just because it's a new party. So lets say he does extremely well and gets 3 million votes in 2023, and the DA rebuilds from 2019 back to around 4 million, and the IFP rebuilds itself back to the 1 million it had in the 2000s, FF+ on a couple of 100k. That's a realistic best case scenario. A workable opposition coalition then has 8 million votes, maybe not enough to remove the ANC/EFF, but it could be close.

Your baas will have to put a lot more work into Gauteng/Mangaung/Ethekwini/NMB to make that work though. Only the Joburg result is near the numbers he needs to be pulling, so I remain to be convinced he can do it. If he pulls it off he becomes the president though.

Nah, I won't vote for a xenophobe like Mashaba. Os, what do you make of the DA losing 23% of the coloured vote? Pretty much a pasting in my books

Obviously a lot of new parties they vote for. You even got a Coloured party parties with WP colours, All Blacks party Cape Crusaders Party passion gap party ext

[Big Nipper]

And you see that type of casual racism is precisely why many coloureds, especially in the rural areas, have rejected the DA. Well done Oom, you are the perfect DA demographic

[OomStruisbaai]

And you see that type of casual racism is precisely why many coloureds, especially in the rural areas, have rejected the DA. Well done Oom, you are the perfect DA demographic

Vok you on your race car per usual. Look like you got the wrong voting papers in PE.

[Big Nipper]

And you see that type of casual racism is precisely why many coloureds, especially in the rural areas, have rejected the DA. Well done Oom, you are the perfect DA demographic

Vok you on your race car per usual. Look like you got the wrong voting papers in PE.

Sorry oom, I cannot afford a race car, still driving my Polo

[Chilli]

And you see that type of casual racism is precisely why many coloureds, especially in the rural areas, have rejected the DA. Well done Oom, you are the perfect DA demographic

Vok you on your race car per usual. Look like you got the wrong voting papers in PE.

Sorry oom, I cannot afford a race car, still driving my Polo

Did you not yet get your commission for the vacuum cleaner that I bought last week?