NPR

_Os_ wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 11:56 am

JM2K6 wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 11:25 am But the point is that Labour are in a completely different position when it comes to local councils, so trying to analyse the possible impact for a general election is not comparing apples to apples in the first place.

Obviously it's not an apple and an apple. But you're still painting in brushstrokes that are too broad for me. I think you get my general point and just disagree, so I won't make any further long posts to try and convince you it can be a good indicator sometimes.

We (the voters) have been here before! :-)

The general election will be a culture war or a war on woke, or decided by a bacon sandwich. Its battle ground, debates and talking points will be dictated by the tories and the Murdoch, non dom press..who influence elections world wide and have the tried and tested, political machinery and tactics to do it... and everyone else will be floundering, trying desperately to catch up.

I mean it won't be decided by educated, inquisitive voters, taking their civic responsibilities seriously and who have read, even the first 30 pages of basically any book on practical logic and logical fallacies..that blows litterally all tory bullshit out the water.
It will be decided by anger, resentment, spite and fuckwits.

Sky News was on during lunch. The presenter was in front of a video wall, four graphs were displayed dividing England into North/East/South/West, showing lost or gained seats in each region. Tories had lost seats in every region (wasn't very accurate I thought, what constitutes North/East/South/West and how many seats were contested in each, it was all unclear), the other parties had gained seats in every region. The presenter says "if the Conservatives had done badly they would be losing seats in all these regions", then he just continues waffling, before realising the graphs were down everywhere for the Tories, so then said "if they had done badly it would be much worse than this, the graphs would be far worse!".

Alternate reality.

JM2K6 wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 8:29 am

I like neeps wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 8:11 am

JM2K6 wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 7:50 am Labour's little pact with the Lib Dems suggests that "a bad night for Labour", when they've so far improved on an already strong position despite not campaigning in some seats, is an odd call

Not really, when you can't batter this government and you're one hope of govt is an agreement with the Lib Dems. It's eh not great?

This isn't a general election. The Tories have taken a battering so far and both Labour and Lib Dems have made gains. Labour already had a very strong position - it's not like a GE where Labour are having to work from a weak position. These elections are not a direct proxy for the general election.

Indeed. Council elections are treated like some indicator, but they are not. Blair always lost a ton of seats, Corbyn had a bad one in 2017 before surging to a close race in the general election a few month later. Broadly speeking council elections bring out low turnouts with passioante protest votes

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61347764

Interesting analysis, basically the Tories lost some support, but Labour have barely gained any of it:

"However, the loss of support for the Conservatives did not simply translate into Labour advance. A one-point advance in Labour's vote share in London was accompanied by a three-point fall in the north of England. Indeed, across England as a whole, Labour failed to advance in wards where it faced competition from both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

Although Labour have recorded a four-point improvement on what was a poor performance in last year's local elections, the party has not recorded the kind of consistent advance that demonstrates that it has now reached new levels of popularity.

The 33 net gains of seats it has registered so far (all of them in London) is a consequence of the decline in Conservative support rather than any electoral advance by Labour themselves since the seats were last fought in 2018, when Jeremy Corbyn was leader.

In fact, the Conservative decline has thus far helped the Liberal Democrats more than Labour. Coupled with the modest two point increase in Lib Dem support since 2018, the party has so far enjoyed a net gain of 58 seats and gained control of Kingston-upon-Hull from Labour."

Rhubarb & Custard wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 12:25 pm It's perhaps not such a good indicator of a GE, polling should still be better for that if done well

I know how the Libdem machine works more or less. UK level polling gives a broad picture, but it cannot tell you where to target. For that to be done thoroughly you would need a poll in each individual constituency, which would be expensive/impossible. Marginals do get polled though. Other things including local election results are put into the model (each constituency has its own modelling), this will then be used to help target resources like polling/campaigning /activists. It's very difficult to know you have a few hundred new voters in a ward somewhere, outside of an actual election there's only membership signups.

I guess I'm talking about something different to you and JM. Not a predictor of a general election, more a pointer to where the strengths/weaknesses are, the parties still have to use whatever opportunities they can find. But if there's not even any indication they have support somewhere, they're not going to put resources into that area and are unlikely to flip that constituency in a general election.

Starmer being investigated for lockdown breaches. Oh dear.

Didn't labour have an agreement with the Dems though? So they'll have lost out in places they planned with the Dems, so sheer number of votes isn't a good way to go.

eldanielfire wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 1:19 pm https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61347764

Interesting analysis, basically the Tories lost some support, but Labour have barely gained any of it:

"However, the loss of support for the Conservatives did not simply translate into Labour advance. A one-point advance in Labour's vote share in London was accompanied by a three-point fall in the north of England. Indeed, across England as a whole, Labour failed to advance in wards where it faced competition from both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

Although Labour have recorded a four-point improvement on what was a poor performance in last year's local elections, the party has not recorded the kind of consistent advance that demonstrates that it has now reached new levels of popularity.

The 33 net gains of seats it has registered so far (all of them in London) is a consequence of the decline in Conservative support rather than any electoral advance by Labour themselves since the seats were last fought in 2018, when Jeremy Corbyn was leader.

In fact, the Conservative decline has thus far helped the Liberal Democrats more than Labour. Coupled with the modest two point increase in Lib Dem support since 2018, the party has so far enjoyed a net gain of 58 seats and gained control of Kingston-upon-Hull from Labour."

Or the other narrative is Labour have a 5 point national lead over the Tories based upon the results already in.

I like neeps wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 1:32 pm Starmer being investigated for lockdown breaches. Oh dear.

Re-investigated having already been cleared once.

SaintK wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 2:04 pm

I like neeps wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 1:32 pm Starmer being investigated for lockdown breaches. Oh dear.

Re-investigated having already been cleared once.

Durham Constabulary didn't investigate Dominic Cummings over his alleged breach of lockdown rules, their reasons being that his statement in the Rose Garden at Downing St was taken as his account of what happened.

I remember at the time, wrt Cummings, Durham police said that they did not issue fines retrospectively, a stance that has been reported in the Spectator only yesterday. If this leads to anything there will be some raised eyebrows as to why this police force are changing policy now.

SaintK wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 2:04 pm

I like neeps wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 1:32 pm Starmer being investigated for lockdown breaches. Oh dear.

Re-investigated having already been cleared once.

After the tory mp has requested the police to review.
Which police confirm on the morning that the electoral results are announced, and the tories look weak and need to point at another cat.

Lib Dems have taken Somerset, please please make a special effort for North East Somerset too at the next GE

Tichtheid wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 2:25 pm

SaintK wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 2:04 pm

I like neeps wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 1:32 pm Starmer being investigated for lockdown breaches. Oh dear.

Re-investigated having already been cleared once.

Durham Constabulary didn't investigate Dominic Cummings over his alleged breach of lockdown rules, their reasons being that his statement in the Rose Garden at Downing St was taken as his account of what happened.

I remember at the time, wrt Cummings, Durham police said that they did not issue fines retrospectively, a stance that has been reported in the Spectator only yesterday. If this leads to anything there will be some raised eyebrows as to why this police force are changing policy now.

Did The Met not also have that stance until public pressure became too much to ignore?

If being under police investigation after denials is a resignation matter for Starmer then I look forward to the next Labour leadership election.

fishfoodie wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 10:16 pm And lo & behold the Unionists on BBC NI are falling over them selves to pretend that the NIP is a serious issue, & that they are justified in not forming an Executive on the strength of it.

They have to know that if they don't form an Executive to deal with the Cost of Living crisis, & the Health Service; they'll be completely fucking obliterated in a subsequent vote, because people won't forgive & forget

If the Union falls thanks almost entirely to intransigent Unionists, oh the ironing! The Shinners seem confident today. What with the Tories desperate to stop another referendum for Scotland, if they were in charge for Irish reunification and Scottish independence during a term of government it would be a clusterfuck by them for one of their core tenets that would be a joy to behold. Although TBF most in England probably couldn't really give a tartan toss.

I like neeps wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 2:53 pm

Tichtheid wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 2:25 pm

SaintK wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 2:04 pm
Re-investigated having already been cleared once.

Durham Constabulary didn't investigate Dominic Cummings over his alleged breach of lockdown rules, their reasons being that his statement in the Rose Garden at Downing St was taken as his account of what happened.

I remember at the time, wrt Cummings, Durham police said that they did not issue fines retrospectively, a stance that has been reported in the Spectator only yesterday. If this leads to anything there will be some raised eyebrows as to why this police force are changing policy now.

Did The Met not also have that stance until public pressure became too much to ignore?

This doesn't seem like public pressure, and anyway, the incident has already been investigated, that is the big difference between what happened in Durham and what has happened multiple times in Downing St.

The Met certainly said they wouldn't be making public any more fines in the lead up to these elections, which is something quite new

The Tories have been repeating the mantra that voters are "fed up of cake and wine", on the other hand they've been pushing this story very hard.

There is also the fact that there is a lot more to come, a party in the No. 10 flat is seemingly of particular concern.

Will we see Sue Gray's report in the next few weeks?

I suspect it's not specifically Sue Grays report, more that more FPNs have been given to the Bumblecunt, & the Princess; but weren't reported due to the Elections, & now they will be reported.

And in other news Plaid take control in Ynys Mon.

Tichtheid wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 3:10 pm

I like neeps wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 2:53 pm

Tichtheid wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 2:25 pm


Durham Constabulary didn't investigate Dominic Cummings over his alleged breach of lockdown rules, their reasons being that his statement in the Rose Garden at Downing St was taken as his account of what happened.

I remember at the time, wrt Cummings, Durham police said that they did not issue fines retrospectively, a stance that has been reported in the Spectator only yesterday. If this leads to anything there will be some raised eyebrows as to why this police force are changing policy now.

Did The Met not also have that stance until public pressure became too much to ignore?

This doesn't seem like public pressure, and anyway, the incident has already been investigated, that is the big difference between what happened in Durham and what has happened multiple times in Downing St.

The Met certainly said they wouldn't be making public any more fines in the lead up to these elections, which is something quite new

The Tories have been repeating the mantra that voters are "fed up of cake and wine", on the other hand they've been pushing this story very hard.

There is also the fact that there is a lot more to come, a party in the No. 10 flat is seemingly of particular concern.

Will we see Sue Gray's report in the next few weeks?

The press have been pretty hot on it and it started coming into daytime TV shows like GMB. So a bit of public pressure. Otherwise why re-open it?

In any case, judging by his own tweet he has to resign. He's lost pretty much all moral authority on partygate.

I like neeps wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 3:37 pm

Tichtheid wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 3:10 pm

I like neeps wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 2:53 pm

Did The Met not also have that stance until public pressure became too much to ignore?

This doesn't seem like public pressure, and anyway, the incident has already been investigated, that is the big difference between what happened in Durham and what has happened multiple times in Downing St.

The Met certainly said they wouldn't be making public any more fines in the lead up to these elections, which is something quite new

The Tories have been repeating the mantra that voters are "fed up of cake and wine", on the other hand they've been pushing this story very hard.

There is also the fact that there is a lot more to come, a party in the No. 10 flat is seemingly of particular concern.

Will we see Sue Gray's report in the next few weeks?

The press have been pretty hot on it and it started coming into daytime TV shows like GMB. So a bit of public pressure. Otherwise why re-open it?

In any case, judging by his own tweet he has to resign. He's lost pretty much all moral authority on partygate.

An interesting take here

Durham’s former police chief has condemned attempts to get his former force to investigate Keir Starmer over allegations of Covid rule-breaking as “hypocritical” and “dangerous” and said there is no evidence the Labour leader flouted the law.

Michael Barton, chief constable of Durham until 2019, said the pressure on police to investigate was politically motivated. In his time in charge, Durham was rated as one of the best-performing police forces.
...
Barton said of those pressing police to investigate, including Conservative MPs and rightwing newspapers: “They are using operational policing as a political football, which is dangerous and ought to be condemned.
“For the same people who said Dominic Cummings had done nothing wrong to demand police action is both hypocritical and dangerous. It means operational policing is being dragged into a political minefield.”

He said all the circumstances around Starmer were hugely different to those surrounding Boris Johnson’s law-breaking.

Barton said: “The only reason that those offences should be looked at in retrospect is if the people who made the laws, broke the laws. That is why it was crucial the gatherings in Westminster were investigated.”

He likened those demanding Starmer be investigated to malicious neighbours plaguing police with vexatious complaints: “All forces saw calls on neighbours increase during Covid from people using Covid as cover for longstanding disputes. That’s what this is.

The moral authority is based on Johnson and Sunak misleading parliament, breaking the laws that they had made and the fact that Johnson went on national television every evening telling people to keep to the rules, whilst he and his team were flouting them.

Starmer has denied breaking the law at that constituency event.

I like neeps wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 3:37 pm Otherwise why re-open it?

Because the police are corrupt and treat Boris with fear and favour, some might say

Tory’s taken a kicking in Edinburgh. Big gains for LD

Slick wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 3:54 pm Tory’s taken a kicking in Edinburgh. Big gains for LD

Looks like Labour will take over from the Cons in second place in Scotland.

Greens are up 13 seats, Cons down 61 with 28/32 councils declared

Rhubarb & Custard wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 3:49 pm

I like neeps wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 3:37 pm Otherwise why re-open it?

Because the police are corrupt and treat Boris with fear and favour, some might say

I’ve no idea who said what and when but possibility of the political parties trying the set the police on each other isn’t a good look.

One oddity I have noticed with this election is the marked difference in the reporting of results by the Guardian and other news sites.

The BBC and most other news sites are reporting the changes in seats as follows (combined figures for England, Wales and Scotland):

Conservative: - 379
Labour: + 103
LibDems: + 191
Green: + 74

But the Guardian have the figures as follows:

Conservative: - 303
Labour: + 169
LibDems: + 162
Green: + 68

I just can't see why the Guardian's figures should be so markedly different to everyone else's, given that these should be relatively easy to calculate.

And the Tories lose the only council under their control in Wales.

tabascoboy wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 5:19 pm And the Tories lose the only council under their control in Wales.

Just a mixed set of results

Shinners pushing for a referrendum big style.

In amongst all the good news of Tory losses, I see that Lutfur Rahman has been elected as the Mayor of Tower Hamlets again, having now served his five year ban from standing for public office for corruption and electoral fraud, and having been struck off as a solicitor.

Still, I am sure he is now a changed man, and won't be indulging in the same practices that saw him removed from office in 2015.

Lobby wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 5:47 pm In amongst all the good news of Tory losses, I see that Lutfur Rahman has been elected as the Mayor of Tower Hamlets again, having now served his five year ban from standing for public office for corruption and electoral fraud, and having been struck off as a solicitor.

Still, I am sure he is now a changed man, and won't be indulging in the same practices that saw him removed from office in 2015.

Private Eye have been following this closely and reporting on moderates and his rivals being slowly forced out over months paving the way for his glorious return.

Also, see Hounslow

Looks like Doug Beattie, the UUP Leader is screwed. He's been overtaken by the Alliance candidate for the 5th seat, & the Alliance is very transfer friendly, so will probably pull away now.

Almost the big 400 for Tory losses now. A remarkable battering.

JM2K6 wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 8:02 pm Almost the big 400 for Tory losses now. A remarkable battering.

Nice little test run for Labour, & the Lib Dems on cooperating, ahead of the main event.

Just saw someone suggest that the Tories might call a GE as early as this year, which does make a good bit of sense.

The Economy is only going to get worse, between now & when the GE has to happen; Labour are on an improving trajectory, but clearly aren't far enough in front to get a majority, so will have to form a minority Government which will struggle to last the full term; & this will probably be a very good time to be in opposition, & finding some competent leadership.

Lobby wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 4:23 pm One oddity I have noticed with this election is the marked difference in the reporting of results by the Guardian and other news sites.

The BBC and most other news sites are reporting the changes in seats as follows (combined figures for England, Wales and Scotland):

Conservative: - 379
Labour: + 103
LibDems: + 191
Green: + 74

But the Guardian have the figures as follows:

Conservative: - 303
Labour: + 169
LibDems: + 162
Green: + 68

I just can't see why the Guardian's figures should be so markedly different to everyone else's, given that these should be relatively easy to calculate.

BBC use the seats won in the previous comparable election and not which party actually holds the seats being contested immediately prior to the election, The Guardian/Press Association compare against the party holding the contested seats prior to the election. That's the best I can make of this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61223003
"How is seat change calculated?
The change in the number of councillors for each party is calculated by comparing this election result with the result the last time these seats were contested.
For some councils not all their seats will be contested at this election, as some authorities only have elections for half or a third of seats at any given time.
In Scotland and Wales the seats were last up in 2017, while in London the last elections were in 2018.
In other parts of England these dates differ. For most councils the seats were last contested in 2018 but in some areas it was 2019 and others 2021.
There are some areas where change is more difficult to calculate because there have been boundary changes or the number of councillors representing each ward has changed. In four areas there are brand new councils.
In cases like this, the BBC uses "notional results" to project what the previous result would have been if the new boundaries had been in place at the last election."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng ... land-wales
"The data on councillor numbers comes from PA Media. Because PA only reports on complete councils, the numbers for councillor change may differ from those reported by other sources who report each council seat as it comes in. In addition, there are differences in the point of comparison: PA calculates change based on the status of each seat just before the election, not on its status after the preceding election. Lastly, there are frequent changes in ward boundaries and the number of councillors per ward, to maintain equality of representation. This may mean that parties’ net seat changes in one particular council may not balance each other out."

If you can watch the BBC NI Election coverage, it's great value !

They've a diverse, & excellent panel

Lobby wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 5:47 pm In amongst all the good news of Tory losses, I see that Lutfur Rahman has been elected as the Mayor of Tower Hamlets again, having now served his five year ban from standing for public office for corruption and electoral fraud, and having been struck off as a solicitor.

Still, I am sure he is now a changed man, and won't be indulging in the same practices that saw him removed from office in 2015.

Didn't Rahman declare himself bankrupt to get out of paying Andy Erlam? I know you can't be a bankrupt and an MP, would that not apply here? Not that Rahman coming in below the moral standards of an MP would surprise anyone

Discharge from bankruptcy in the UK is 12 months.

After the property collapse in Ireland many of our shyster developers suddenly became British because, at the time, discharge form an Irish bankruptcy was 13 years.

If you have a problem, take it up with the UK government which made the UK the Bankruptcy place of choice in the developed world.

C69 wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 8:33 pm The Shinners being the main Party and the Unionists losing a majority of votes in NI would be cataclysmic.
Those Catholics are breeding like rabbits

A United Ireland soon?

Was always likely. Not sure what the population split is but breeding like flies was inevitably going to tilt the balance without some serious gerrymandering.