What's going on in Ukraine?

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[tabascoboy]

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[TB63]

[tabascoboy]

Russia last year experienced a record number of explosions, leading to dozens of deaths and thousands of injuries, the independent news website Vyortska reported, citing a report by the Emergency Situations Ministry.

Overall, 83 blasts ripped through residential buildings, warehouses, cars and mines in 2022, according to the cited ministry report on 2013-22 emergency response efforts.

At least 55 people died and 10,647 were injured last year as a result of the record number of explosions, said Vyorstka, which noted that over the past decade, no single year had witnessed more than a total of 500 people injured and killed.

In a sign of the domestic toll of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Vyorstka notes that 55 out of the 83 recorded explosions involved bombs, rockets, mines or grenades.

Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry report also includes the October 2022 blast on the Crimea bridge, which links the annexed peninsula to mainland Russia.

In July, Ukraine's security service for the first time claimed responsibility for the October bridge attack.

The Emergency Situations Ministry’s report does not include explosions that are considered “state secret,” a fire safety expert told Vyorstka.

[tabascoboy]

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Thomas C. Theiner
@noclador
Aug 9

The 111 known Ukrainian combat brigades are:

Army:
• 34x Mechanized
• 5x Tank
• 5x Motorized
• 4x Rifle
• 2x Jaeger
• 2x Mountain
• 2x Assault
• 1x Special Purpose
• 1x Presidential

Air Assault Forces:
• 4x Air Assault
• 3x Airmobile
• 1x Airborne
• 1x Jaeger

Marine Corps:
• 4x Marine

Air Force:
• 1x Rifle

Territorial Defense:
• 31x Defense

National Guard:
• 7x Offensive Guard

National Police:
• 1x Offensive Guard

Border Guards:
• 1x Offensive Guard

General Staff:
• 1x Guards

And there might be more.

As for support brigades and regiments:

• 3x Special Forces regiments
• 16x Artillery brigades
• 1x Rocket Artillery regiment
• 2x Engineer brigades
• 5x Engineer regiments
• 3x Pontoon Bridge regiments
• 7x Tactical Aviation brigades
• 4x Army Aviation brigades
• 1x Naval Aviation brigade
• 5x Anti-Aircraft Missile brigades
• 12x Anti-Aircraft Missile regiments

And there are at least 143 independent light infantry, reconnaissance, special forces, volunteer, tank, territorial defense, and rifle battalions.

These combat and combat support forces number at least 600,000 troops. All the signals, radar, radio-technical, electronic warfare, drone, logistics, maintenance, transport, medical, PSYOPS, naval, rear area security, training, military police, staff, etc. units add at least an additional 500,000 troops to the current strength of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Currently 32 combat brigades are in the rear training and waiting for the call to enter the fight in the next phases of the Ukrainian offensive. And (!) Ukraine keeps forming new brigades.

So, please don't listen to people saying Ukraine is running out of units. russia is running out of units; Ukraine isn't.

And thanks to increased Western and Ukrainian artillery ammo production Ukrainian artillery units now regularly outshoot the russian artillery.

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Theiner was on MriyaReport at the weekend and made some interesting points re current operations.

- there are comparatively few Ukrainian troops actively involved in offensive operations at the moment. Most units are either in reserve, training, or refitting.

- this is due to a combination of force conservation and a strategy of attrition.

- attrition is in two forms: attriting artillery systems and using cluster munitions against Russian infantry assaults.

- the massive targeting of Russian artillery systems is for two purposes: firstly, to allow sappers to de-mine in relative safety; and secondly, to degrade the Russian ability to use artillery against Ukrainian infantry and armour formations when the breakthrough occurs. These purposes are inextricably linked.

- the Russians send infantry assaults forward regardless of circumstance so the Ukrainians are using DPCIMs to wipe out units and force the Russians to burn through their infantry reserves.

- the Ukrainians are more than happy to sit back and not make a major push forward anywhere on the line as the Russians are being such obliging enemies.

- case in point: the Dnipro beachhead. The Russians have failed to dislodge the Ukrainians since they crossed the river because the Ukrainians are not really pushing forward, but rather waiting for the Russians to open fire with artillery, then using Western counter-battery radars and drones to geolocate and destroy them. When infantry are sent forward to push them out, they get obliterated by cluster shells. These problems are being exacerbated by increasing amounts of troops and equipment being sent East.

- the Ukrainians will make a major armoured push forward when they feel they have destroyed enough Russian artillery to make a powerful thrust through the line into the Russian rear that is too fast for the Russians to stall and/or lay mines against.

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https://thehill.com/opinion/internation ... ds-of-war/

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[Uncle fester]

Confused. Why would a Putin aligned source be drawing attention to back door sources for Russia?

Muddy the water?

[Flockwitt]

Ooof. Zelensky on a purge. He's fired all enlistment office heads, everyone of them to be replaced and a big chunk of them will be doing time, 112 cases.

https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-en ... s-ukraine/

[Hellraiser]

Theiner made an interesting point that you will be able to pinpoint when the second phase of the counter-offensive begins by when the bridges at Heniche'sk and Chonhar are demolished by missile strikes. At the moment they are being worn down intermittently to interdict supplies, when they are collapsed it will be to prevent Russian troops withdrawing into Crimea after a Ukrainian breakthrough.

Take out the bridges and there is only one route left, the road through Armiansk. Imagine a >20km tailback of Russian troops and equipment trying to get through the town and remember Armiansk is only 80km from Beryslav, and Ukraine has M30 and M30A1 GMLRs.

[Hellraiser]

Confused. Why would a Putin aligned source be drawing attention to back door sources for Russia?

Muddy the water?

Disinformation. The easiest and most successful way to ensure inaction is to create hesitancy. And the easiest and best way to create hesitancy is to cause confusion.

[fishfoodie]

Confused. Why would a Putin aligned source be drawing attention to back door sources for Russia?

Muddy the water?

The US can see all of this live on satellite, & can see where the assembly points are for refueling too ....

[Hellraiser]

Confused. Why would a Putin aligned source be drawing attention to back door sources for Russia?

Muddy the water?

The US can see all of this live on satellite, & can see where the assembly points are for refueling too ....

I think you are misinterpreting. Qazaqstan is not sending weaponry to Russia, these videos are part of a fake news disinformation campaign.

[fishfoodie]

Confused. Why would a Putin aligned source be drawing attention to back door sources for Russia?

Muddy the water?

The US can see all of this live on satellite, & can see where the assembly points are for refueling too ....

I think you are misinterpreting. Qazaqstan is not sending weaponry to Russia, these videos are part of a fake news disinformation campaign.

Which makes you ask who this BS is aimed at, when everyone who counts knows the true story, & that's that the Orcs on the line are sucking hind tit, & they're led by goons who are several levels below donkeys, but whose mistresses live in very nice beach front mansions in Sochi.

I think things are going to get interesting in the next year, because they've tapped out the republics in terms of recruits who could be conned/blackmailed & now they're increasingly having to rope in ethnic Russians, who've always had it easy when it came to dying for mother Russia.

[Hellraiser]

The US can see all of this live on satellite, & can see where the assembly points are for refueling too ....

I think you are misinterpreting. Qazaqstan is not sending weaponry to Russia, these videos are part of a fake news disinformation campaign.

Which makes you ask who this BS is aimed at, when everyone who counts knows the true story, & that's that the Orcs on the line are sucking hind tit, & they're led by goons who are several levels below donkeys, but whose mistresses live in very nice beach front mansions in Sochi.

I think things are going to get interesting in the next year, because they've tapped out the republics in terms of recruits who could be conned/blackmailed & now they're increasingly having to rope in ethnic Russians, who've always had it easy when it came to dying for mother Russia.

The Ruble is also about to hit 100 to the dollar. All that Central Bank fire-fighting has run out of road.

[TB63]

[Uncle fester]

Hope he's locked down his Strava.

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[tabascoboy]

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[Blake]

They have fuck all time left to start making the investment in them look worthwhile

There's an argument that this war saved NATO and sparked the kind of defence spending in Europe that been needed for a long time. Old Soviet stocks from Eastern Europe are being donated to Ukraine and replaced by modern Western equipment. France is about to replace Russia as the world's 2nd largest arms supplier.

Western countries are benefitting more from this war than is being said publicly.

And it has stress tested western weapons systems and tactics, while simultaneously exposing ruining the Russians arms industry.

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[Uncle fester]

I always envisage the future war scenes from the Terminator filums when I read stuff like this.



Bad enough having humans hunting you but AI/robots, no way.

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[Flockwitt]

Germany committing to a minimum of 5 billion euros a year till 2027 of military aid. This doesn't include humanitarian and other aid.

It should be noted they've supplied 22 billion euros in aid to date.

[Hellraiser]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/0 ... s-invasion

[tabascoboy]

Likelihood is this happens more often than is reported, but maybe with less consequences



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Another senior officer gone, this time nothing to do with the conflict...

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[tabascoboy]

Not sure what gives him the idea that UA would consider this...

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Not sure what gives him the idea that UA would consider this...

I expect there will be a grovelling public backtracking at some stage.