What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

The deputy commander of Rusich Group, Yan Petrovsky, has been arrested in Finland. How he got into Finland given he's on the sanctions lists will be an interesting thing to find out. Ukraine has requested his extradition.

Just to revisit this, he was caught earlier this month in a Finnish airport trying to enter the country on a fake passport. Additionally, the guy is an absolute monster; a torturer, mutilator, and murderer; dating back to 2014. A lot of Ukrainian Telegram chatter since the news broke earlier today wants to have him sent directly to the Hague on war crimes and crimes against humanity charges, instead of extraditing him to Ukraine, as there is a feeling that this is one instance where a prisoner exchange should not be made.

[Hellraiser]

If there was ever a reason to trust Putin's word and enter into good faith negotiations surely this was the killing blow

Prigozhin's death has transformed Wagner centers across Russia into memorial places and the first reaction many share is disgust which is all too human. PMC Wagner is a terrorist organization which had little regard for his victims and members alike. But there is something far more important when seeing this and it bodes a grim and inescapable reality for Putin.

Putin made his move and it was none which required a prophet. His relentless and seething need for taking revenge can be tracked through his entire life, especially when it comes to betrayal. Litvinenko is but one of the prominent names which instantly comes up.

Murdering Prigozhin, however, is strategically seen and especially at this very moment an absolute blunder. While the murder of Litvinenko was in the twisted logic of Putin's Kremlin a rather safe affair, Prigozhin's murder is an outright mad gamble, or better described: blind hate and recklessness. The timing cannot be worse. Russian troops are getting hammered along the entire frontline, Russian cities are getting strafed by Ukrainian drones, blunting Russia's already untenable lie of an "special operation" and the midst of this developing catastrophe the leader of Russia sidelines the most popular fighting unit and assassinates their commanders.

You do not have to be an expert to understand what this means in terms of troops' morale. There are many both, inside and outside Russia who are absolutely confused what "logic" can possibly lead to such a mad step, even when considering that Putin's vengefulness has been well-known, and the answer is easy: vanity, money and a complete detachment of reality. Combined with his narcissistic ego, it was no surprise that he would take out his most dangerous opponent in Russia.

I can imagine that having all 3 main Wagner leaders (Prigozhin, Utkin and Chekalov) in one controlled place, was for Putin too good to be to allowed to simply to go to waste. And so he probably gave the order to decapitate Wagner.

Every supporter of Wagner knows that it was Putin who murdered Prigozhin and there is no story which Putin or anyone else around the Kremlin can cook up in order to make them think, differently. There is nothing what Putin can do in order to quell this. There will be an answer, sooner rather than later. The first test will be when the attempt will be started to assign Wagners to the Russian military or even other PMCs. That moment will determine whether they can mount resistance in an organized fashion.

Some might argue, "well, they are mercenaries and it does not make a difference who is going to pay them" and they have point because there are many working for Wagner who see it that way. But that thinking alone would be too short-sighted, especially when reflecting what popularity Wagner has garnered over the past 18 months, ironically even thanks to the help of Putin's media. But the ghost is out of the bottle. They being pressed into Shoigu's PMC Patriot or Gerasimov's Russian (fail) army will be a notable downgrade, and I'm talking of both, money and status.

No matter where this is going, it will further weaken the Russian war effort, which already many Pro-Russian channels warned will happen. Putin's grinning face on the very same day when Prigozhin was blown out of the skies over Tver was the very best depiction of an self-own one can possibly give. It was another episode showing how far detached Putin has become from reality. His self-defeating vengefulness has reached a point where his self-centering interests will put Russia's wider interests into backseat and his above all, even and especially above people who once were part of his inner circle. This and exterior catastrophes are usually the sufficient propellants to make dictatorships implode.

So, we can sit back and see how this will play out. I for one will prepare for another supply of popcorn.

They didn't do boo with leaders in place. Now without leadership, they are going to rip stuff up?

For me, it's hopium. Hopefully I'm wrong.

The RDK have already released a video appeal to current or ex-Wagner mercs to join them if they want revenge, though obviously subject to the condition that they have committed no war crimes in Ukraine. This wouldn't have gone out without approval from HUR, or more particularly Budanov.

[Uncle fester]

Think Ukraine are better off staying away from them.

[Hellraiser]

Think Ukraine are better off staying away from them.

It's a destabilisation tactic. That being said there are some ex-Wagner recruited from POWs among them already.

[Hellraiser]

[_Os_]

Excellent article, it's why I've previously said Tokmak is important. Manage to take the Tokmak area and it gives Ukraine a logistics hub and fire control over a large area enough to collapse the southern front. This is also why Russia has fortified so heavily there and why Ukraine are directly attacking in that direction through heavy Russian fortifications (although manned by some quite poor Russian troops on my research).

Not mentioned in that article is even if Ukraine made no further ground, they've pierced the first line of defence. The entire first line can be more easily rolled up now because it can be attacked from two directions. Obviously the superior option is for Ukraine to keep pushing south from Robotyne to break the next (and much stronger going by the maps) defencive line around Solodka Balka. If Ukraine pierce the Solodka Balka line it's a massive development. I was the second to mention Robotyne on the thread (Tabasco quoted a report that mentioned it before me), this is what I posted back in early July:

"Lots of reports that Ukraine has taken frontline Russian trenches at Robotyne, which is about 20km up the road from the strategically important Tokmak. Russians maybe think Ukraine are going to be knocking on the door of Tokmak soon, I've seen some speculation in the last few days that Russian officers are leaving Tokmak and FSB are telling any friends or relatives there to leave."

I knew how massive a development that was, much bigger than winning some insignificant trenches. Breaking the Solodka Balka line would be on a level with the defence of Hostomel at the start of 2022 which prevented a Russian air bridge into Kyiv. It would be a turning point in the war, Ukraine would've gone through 2 lines of defence, with Tokmak waiting for some of Ukraine's best most well equipped forces.

Interesting wondering about the options that open up for Ukraine the moment they break that second defencive line around Solodka Balka. Ukraine would be at most months away from having fire control over the southern Ukraine land bridge. A good time for Russia to pull out, but past Russian choices indicate Russia doesn't retreat and sits it out longer than it should. Russia will have two escape routes when it tries to exit the south, one into Donbas that by then will be fully covered by Ukrainian artillery etc. The other into Crimea.

Which is why the second most important thing happening right now are the beachheads Ukraine has on the eastern side of the Dnipro. If it makes them stronger and masses amphibious forces in Kherson, there could be potential for a thunder run by Ukrainian forces to cut off a Russian retreat through Crimea. Really obvious why Russia blew the dam now, if they didn't Ukraine would probably control the last remaining land crossing now.

[Hellraiser]

[Flockwitt]

Excellent article, it's why I've previously said Tokmak is important. Manage to take the Tokmak area and it gives Ukraine a logistics hub and fire control over a large area enough to collapse the southern front. This is also why Russia has fortified so heavily there and why Ukraine are directly attacking in that direction through heavy Russian fortifications (although manned by some quite poor Russian troops on my research).

Not mentioned in that article is even if Ukraine made no further ground, they've pierced the first line of defence. The entire first line can be more easily rolled up now because it can be attacked from two directions. Obviously the superior option is for Ukraine to keep pushing south from Robotyne to break the next (and much stronger going by the maps) defencive line around Solodka Balka. If Ukraine pierce the Solodka Balka line it's a massive development. I was the second to mention Robotyne on the thread (Tabasco quoted a report that mentioned it before me), this is what I posted back in early July:

"Lots of reports that Ukraine has taken frontline Russian trenches at Robotyne, which is about 20km up the road from the strategically important Tokmak. Russians maybe think Ukraine are going to be knocking on the door of Tokmak soon, I've seen some speculation in the last few days that Russian officers are leaving Tokmak and FSB are telling any friends or relatives there to leave."

I knew how massive a development that was, much bigger than winning some insignificant trenches. Breaking the Solodka Balka line would be on a level with the defence of Hostomel at the start of 2022 which prevented a Russian air bridge into Kyiv. It would be a turning point in the war, Ukraine would've gone through 2 lines of defence, with Tokmak waiting for some of Ukraine's best most well equipped forces.

Interesting wondering about the options that open up for Ukraine the moment they break that second defencive line around Solodka Balka. Ukraine would be at most months away from having fire control over the southern Ukraine land bridge. A good time for Russia to pull out, but past Russian choices indicate Russia doesn't retreat and sits it out longer than it should. Russia will have two escape routes when it tries to exit the south, one into Donbas that by then will be fully covered by Ukrainian artillery etc. The other into Crimea.

Which is why the second most important thing happening right now are the beachheads Ukraine has on the eastern side of the Dnipro. If it makes them stronger and masses amphibious forces in Kherson, there could be potential for a thunder run by Ukrainian forces to cut off a Russian retreat through Crimea. Really obvious why Russia blew the dam now, if they didn't Ukraine would probably control the last remaining land crossing now.

It's curious the way it's panned out. With the Russians refusing to rotate front line troops it makes sense for the Ukrainians to take a route 1 approach, swapping in units to pound on a single spot till it cracks. And if you're going to do the hard yards you might as well head straight for the main prize which was always Tokmak.

[Hellraiser]

[_Os_]

It's curious the way it's panned out. With the Russians refusing to rotate front line troops it makes sense for the Ukrainians to take a route 1 approach, swapping in units to pound on a single spot till it cracks. And if you're going to do the hard yards you might as well head straight for the main prize which was always Tokmak.

Seems like they're adapting and moving some of their best in.

[Flockwitt]

Posting this from the other place.




Exceptional thread and profound insights into the counter-offensive in the South by
@solonko1648
(Olexandr Solon'ko), servicemember of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In his analysis, he sheds light on the situation, discussing both the challenges and achievements.

[Flockwitt]

Seems like they're adapting and moving some of their best in.

Being forced to I believe. The Russian's can't let that salient at Robotyne get any bigger or their forward facing positions along the rest of the line will be seriously compromised.

Incredibly tough war this, doing everything under constant observation and threat of attack from anywhere.

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

Just chatter at the moment with no verification but

[_Os_]

Looks like a broad attack along the front from Kopani to Novokarlivka.

[_Os_]

Posting this from the other place.

Which is why claims Ukraine hasn't yet gone through a line of defence are odd. Sure there may be tougher and more purpose built lines, but if they haven't gone through a defencive line then what have they done.

[tabascoboy]

“SBU attacked the airfield in Kursk with drones,” RBC reports.

A total of 16 kamikaze drones reportedly worked against four Su-30’s and one MiG-29. Additionally S-300 complex radars and two Pantsir AD systems were among the targets. It is claimed only 3 out of 16 were shot down while others managed to hit their targets.

The exact damage is being clarified.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Flockwitt]

“SBU attacked the airfield in Kursk with drones,” RBC reports.

A total of 16 kamikaze drones reportedly worked against four Su-30’s and one MiG-29. Additionally S-300 complex radars and two Pantsir AD systems were among the targets. It is claimed only 3 out of 16 were shot down while others managed to hit their targets.

The exact damage is being clarified.

I think the important point here is that Ukraine is really only getting going with its drone and missile attacks. As internal production ramps up this is going to become a bigger and bigger headache for Russia - the relative costs and attrition are going to be heavily in Ukraine's favour, much more so than the ground forces battle.

[Uncle fester]

Bit mad isn't it?
Cut off the land bridge and they only have sea plus the Kerch bridge.
To cover the sea routes, they'll probably need to make it all the way to the sea.

[_Os_]

Reports that Ukraine is storming Novopokrovka and could be taking it. Ukraine have been attacking in this direction, but these reports look very provisional to me, could be false.
Reports that Ukraine has broken through Russian lines in the Verbove area (but it's unclear what that means), Russian mil bloggers are saying this, and ISW says there's geo confirmed footage Ukraine has made ground in that direction. These reports look credible.

Ukraine's 46th Airmobile Brigade (Soviet equipment, T-80BVs, fought at Bakhmut and Soledar) seem to be leading the attack on Verbove. Ukraine's 82nd Air Assault Brigade (Western equipment, Challenger 2, Stryker, Marder, M119) seem to be leading the attack down the road to Tokmak in the Novoprokopivka (not to be confused with Novopokrovka) direction.

This thread is must read, has satellite imagery of Russia's fortifications, Verbove looks like the best place to attempt a breakthrough defence there looks rudimentary:

[tabascoboy]

I hear that The Hague is nice

[Uncle fester]

[Slick]

What's he saying? Don't have Twitter

"Fuck off cunt, get cancer"

[laurent]

What's he saying? Don't have Twitter

Not much (The map is so Bad Donetsk has been taken back by ukrainians)

[Flockwitt]

Yep, another X bandwagon hopper - oooh, look, you don't actually have to reach the Sea of Asov!!! Then cue a bunch of mutual back scratchers.

That Black Bird Group in that rather more professional map and twitter comment that Os posted made a counter point. Not saying I fully agree with it still it's always worth taking in the more balanced commentators.

https://twitter.com/J_JHelin/status/1695801316176544010

[tabascoboy]

While RU would claim that they destroyed dozens...

Ukraine lost only 5 of 71 Leopard 2 tanks during the summer counteroffensive, –– Forbes.

At least 10 more such tanks were damaged and are being repaired.

According to "Forbes", it is quite possible that almost every member of the crew of the five destroyed tanks - 20 people in total - managed to leave their car before it burned or exploded.

[tabascoboy]

Long thread of tweets, so as usual here is the all the text ( no images on this ): https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1696 ... 35661.html

[_Os_]

Ukraine now very much confirmed to be right on the defencive line that runs near Verbove. Lots of FPV drone footage is coming out.

This video is telling, from the 46th who are attacking in the Verbove direction. The Ukrainian push on Robotyne started in early July-ish and Robotyne was taken mid August. Ukraine have only been attacking in the Verbove direction for at most a week and half. But all the treelines are smashed, the fields are cratered. It has been heavily worked on in a short space of time.

[laurent]

What's he saying? Don't have Twitter

"Fuck off cunt, get cancer"

I don't think you have the same Twitter as Laurent

He has Elon on direct line...

Not a nice person.

[tabascoboy]

700km from Ukraine territory, did these overfly Belarus without detection, or launched from somewhere else inside RU?

Widespread drone attacks overnight:

- Bryansk oblast
- Kaluga oblast
- Pskov oblast
- Ryazan oblast
- Russian-controlled Crimea oblast
- Oryol oblast

Heavy drone attack against the Russian military airport Pskov military airport. According multiple sources 15 drones penetrated the Russian air defense and hit parking Ilyushin Il-76.

TASS reports that at least 4 Ilyushin Il-76 have been damaged. Videos confirm the burning of at least one or even two Il-76.

In addition, fuel depots and ammunition might be hit. Secondary explosions can be heard.

Coordinates of the airplane shelters:

57°47'12"N 28°22'56"E

[tabascoboy]

Yevgeny Prigozhin's funeral was reportedly kept secret even from the Russian authorities, who appear to have been fooled by a dummy cortege. Now the entire cemetery is locked down by heavily armed police, who have installed metal detectors at its gates.

Commentators have noted that an elaborate "special funeral operation" was held for Prigozhin, in which journalists and the police were directed towards St Petersburg's Serafimovskoye cemetery. Meanwhile, Prigozhin was actually buried at the Porokhovskoye cemetery.

According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, the coffin carried by a hearse to Serafimovskoe was empty. Meanwhile, his remains were taken to Porokhovskoye. Although it's formally closed, it can still be used for subburials in family plots. His father is buried there.

This meant that there was no need to buy a plot or commission any work other than paying for a digger and a simple wooden cross. This was presumably intended to conceal it from the authorities, who were reportedly falsely told the funeral would be at Serafimovskoe.

After Prigozhin's representatives announced that the funeral had been held, the authorities flooded the cemetery with armed police – some with anti-drone guns – and installed metal detectors at the entrance. Barriers were installed and police are patrolling the area.

It's unclear why they are doing this, but the intention is presumably to prevent anyone from approaching Prigozhin's grave. The authorities may want to avoid him being treated as a martyr – it seems they still fear him, even in death. /end

[Flockwitt]

Denys is a happy chappy this evening

[_Os_]

Advanced Ukrainian elements are geo confirmed to have broken through the Russian line at Verbove and are fighting in the village itself. The second line of Russian defences is breached/poorly defended/weak around Verbove and now that's being exploited by Ukraine. It's also the first purpose built/machine made line.
Advanced Ukrainian elements are also now pressed up right on the same defencive line as it passes south of Novoprokopivka.

[Uncle fester]

Great they are adding depth to the breach. When do they plan on adding width?

[tabascoboy]

Great they are adding depth to the breach. When do they plan on adding width?

Yep those who know much more about it than I have pointed out the danger of weakness to counter-attacks and artillery on the flanks. Hopefully they are on it and opsec applies

[_Os_]

Great they are adding depth to the breach. When do they plan on adding width?

Yep those who know much more about it than I have pointed out the danger of weakness to counter-attacks and artillery on the flanks. Hopefully they are on it and opsec applies

Back at the start of the full scale invasion there were people saying all the maps showing areas of control, weren't portraying a true picture of Russian control because Ukraine is so vast, and what Russia really controlled was some roads and a few settlements, and no big cities. There were some maps trying to show the conflict in terms of road control in those early months.

This situation is different but also similar in how the map may not be telling the full story. Russia has built two "Surovikin lines", and in the area north of those lines up to the Ukrainian controlled area is loaded with minefields and Russian fighting positions (trenches/bunkers), any wooded area there is covered in Russian fortifications. To get vehicles through the two big defencive lines/"Surovikin lines" and the fortified area between them and the Ukrainian position (for resupply/reinforcements), means there's a limited amount of access points. It has to be this way because the point of the Russian minefields/tank traps/dragon's teeth/trenches/bunkers, is to funnel the Ukrainian attack into kill boxes.

The problem for Russia if Ukraine breaches all this, as it is doing, is it's very hard to maneuverer and attack Ukraine's flanks and turn the Ukrainian advance into a Ukrainian encircled pocket. The Russians have just spent half a year digging in to prevent that type of warfare. The important thing becomes controlling the roads/approaches.

Once Ukraine have punched a big hole in the first Surovikin line, Ukraine can roll it up to the highway connecting Robotyne and Tokmak, taking the Novoprokopivka/Solodka Balka area. If Russia cannot stop Ukraine's artillery controlling roads/approaches, it cannot counter the flanks and has to go head on into Ukraine's advance. The logical thing for Russia to do once Ukraine is through the the first Surovikin line would be to counter Ukraine head on to try and win back control of the first Surovikin line.

If that all works in Ukraine's favour they have a choice to press on down the highway towards Tokmak, or if they want to widen the breach swing west and use the Dnipro (like using the touchline as an extra defender in rugby), which would trap thousands of Russians if they don't pull out. It's probably one or the other, swing west and those Russians pull out into Tokmak making taking it harder.

I'm no general though, so that could all be bullshit. But I think I'm safe in saying the quantity and depth of fortifications and the quality of Ukraine's screening units are working to reduce the risk of Ukraine going narrow.

[Uncle fester]

That's a good point. So the defences built could/will hamper the Russians ability to flank the deepening salient?

[Hellraiser]

That's a good point. So the defences built could/will hamper the Russians ability to flank the deepening salient?

Absolutely. Choke points work both ways.