NPR

_Os_ wrote: Mon Sep 04, 2023 1:45 pm As per your posts Russia are rumoured to be preparing for a mobilisation of the parts of Kherson they control too and migrant workers in Russia who are eligible for Russian citizenship.

It undermines the claim they have a bottomless supply of men for their military. When they tried a stealth mobilisation, over 1 million young Russian men left Russia, if they don't return then Russia's population number goes into some more long term decline.

They're clearly struggling to replace losses, and are now trying to use men they know are potentially disloyal. They're going to pressgang former security personnel of the state they're fighting into joining them. Potentially they end up with 1000s of spies on the loose all sending coordinates of potential targets to the Ukraine side.

A large proportion of Donetsk's and Luhansk's pre-2022 male populations are now dead, the supply of men from there is fully exhausted. Anyone following the war somewhat closely knows whole formations that have existed since 2014 have been fully wiped out, replaced and fully wiped out again, then replaced again usually with some locals and some Russian conscripts. Russia has essentially committed a genocide against ethnic Russians in Ukraine under the pretext of saving them. Next up Crimean ethnic Russians.

If/when Ukraine gets these regions back they're going to be more politically stable than people imagined. Most potential trouble makers will have died as cannon fodder.

It became necessary to destroy the town to save it

60 years later the Orcs are using the same warped logic

Niegs wrote: Mon Sep 04, 2023 3:30 am Never expected to hear about a volunteer group with this branding...

There's been anarchist, socialist, and liberal volunteer groups since 2014. they're smaller than the nationalist groups and get much less Western attention. When you get an existential war like this, politics is a way people are going to want to organise. There were Ukrainian anarchist groups on the Maidan in 2014, those guys volunteered together afterwards. I know of two anarchist volunteer groups, "Black Flag" and "Resistance Committee", plus some foreign anarchist volunteers likely mostly with Resistance Committee (probably mostly Westerners who fought for the YPG in Syria, which is also anarchist in outlook and includes ideological training as part of it's basic training/orientation that those Westerners would've gone through). I'm guessing this footage is actually from Resistance Committee because it was a formal TDF unit and would be attached to Ukrainian regulars now. I'm guessing there's about 100 to 500 anarchists in the fight, it's not below 100.

Ukraine has a long anarchist history. The Black Banner terror group, and Makhno's Revolutionary Insurgent Army of Ukraine that setup an anarchist territory after the 1917 revolution.

Anyway .. that guy that gets shot and keeps himself useful is a hard bastard. Here's a translation of what they're saying:

"Verbove - Novoprokopivka front.
8th Special Purpose Regiment 'Hertz', reportedly ambush RuAF 40m away. They fire off a ton of ammo, VOGs, hand grenades and RPGs. One UAF is perhaps lightly WIA (left arm?) but stays in the fight.
0:20 Are you alive? - Yes
0:32 (to radio) We have a contact! d40
1:23 (other man) close to us, 40m
1:47 fuuuuck eardrum
1:55 what happened to Bulldog? - give me the VOGs!
2:00 (other man to radio) point 40! point 40! quicker!
2:42 those are the last VOGs - give me the RPG!
2:58 (other man) I'm out of ammo
3:04 Fuck the RPG is stuck
3:25 (other man) watch the 'pidor'!
There is a drone herd close by at 03:35.
The filmaker is from eco/anarchist group reportedly serving with the 78th."

Shot so much his rifle barrel started smoking.

Verbove. Ukraine has made further inroads into the first Surovikin line they're now at its main trench line. Which means as things stand the first Surovikin line is fully penetrated by Ukrainian infantry. No video of Ukrainian vehicles operating that deep yet though. This is a rapid advance considering the mine density. Either Russian defenders are broken and don't have any answer to Ukraine's pushes, or Russia is letting them push.

Deepstate's maps are usually very accurate.

_Os_ wrote: Mon Sep 04, 2023 11:56 pm This is a rapid advance considering the mine density.

This video is a must watch. Full screen (not on a phone). If you watch carefully you can see mines everywhere on the surface. Ukrainian infantry walking through the minefield trusting there's none buried, looks like they're there to sweep a dirt road for mines. In the south along the front it could easily be an average of 1 mine per square metre.

looks like the first Challenger 2 was destroyed.

hopefully it did some damage before it got taken out and the crew escaped.

yermum wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 9:29 am looks like the first Challenger 2 was destroyed.

hopefully it did some damage before it got taken out and the crew escaped.

I'm curious as to what killed it.

Jock42 wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 10:25 am

yermum wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 9:29 am looks like the first Challenger 2 was destroyed.

hopefully it did some damage before it got taken out and the crew escaped.

I'm curious as to what killed it.

Some chat about a rocket barrage probably a lucky hit

I'm sure some of our saffer friends can confirm, but didn't Cuba send shit loads of, "Advisors", to Angola ?

fishfoodie wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 5:48 pm I'm sure some of our saffer friends can confirm, but didn't Cuba send shit loads of, "Advisors", to Angola ?

I'm sure Jocko Willink had a podcast with a SF/CIA boy who tangled with them in Central Africa

fishfoodie wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 5:48 pm I'm sure some of our saffer friends can confirm, but didn't Cuba send shit loads of, "Advisors", to Angola ?

Openly sent thousands of troops and armour. I lived in SA at the time and the general belief was that without the Cubans, UNITA would have won (albeit with SA support). A big problem for the SA military in fighting the Cubans was that the SA population was not prepared to see its boys come home in body bags for a war few were interested in.

yermum wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 10:34 am

Jock42 wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 10:25 am

yermum wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 9:29 am looks like the first Challenger 2 was destroyed.

hopefully it did some damage before it got taken out and the crew escaped.

I'm curious as to what killed it.

Some chat about a rocket barrage probably a lucky hit

I read that it went over a mine which ignited the rear fuel tank? Crew escaped and then it was targeted by a Lancet whilst it was disabled.

Yeah I have read that today seems more likely perhaps.

Openside wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2023 11:24 am I read that it went over a mine which ignited the rear fuel tank? Crew escaped and then it was targeted by a Lancet whilst it was disabled.

That is what the Ukrainian MOD has said (edit: searching to confirm this, it seems to be Western sources only, which may or may not be informed by Ukrainian MOD). From all the footage I've seen, it's very common on both sides for armour to be immobilised by a mine/artillery/ATGM then destroyed later by drones/loitering munitions.

Russians are targeting Western equipment for the propaganda value. In that video there's a modernised T-64 that looks like it was de-tracked/fuel tank hit by a mine, and it hasn't been destroyed. The Russian's are cheering on destroying an immobilised Challenger 2 like they've won the war.

On that front there's so many mines that sappers are clearing them during the night every night whilst artillery is used to clear paths further out, but the final pushes have to be either unsupported infantry (which is what mostly happens) or if there's a strong point armour has to go through uncleared ground (less common). It's mostly infantry assaults with the armour coming in afterwards to secure the ground, which means high casualties.

The office of the Ukrainian President released a horrific video of Russian missile strike in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Region. It shows the impact of the missile in a market street.

So far, 16 people killed, among them at least one child, and another 28 wounded.

Another inexcusable war crime by the Russian invasion.

Blake wrote: Mon Sep 04, 2023 6:46 am

_Os_ wrote: Sun Sep 03, 2023 3:59 pm Drone dropped AT mine with a grenade fuse, there's nothing this will not be able to destroy. In Ukraine the mine finds you!

Any videos yet of that bad boy in action?

I'm curious to see if the timed fuse gives the drone enough time to get clear. The operator is going to have to descend, drop the payload, and start climbing fast. Should make for some cracking footage.

First video I've seen of it in action. Madness.

Minister of defence Rustem Umerov:

“For me, this war did not begin in 2022, and not even in 2014. For my family and the Crimean Tatar people, the war with russia began several centuries ago, when moscow first occupied my native Crimea. I was born after my family had been deported, and as a child lived through the hardships brought about by russian colonialism, which attempted to make indigenous Crimean Tatar people feel as though they were aliens on their own land. They did not succeed back then, and they will never succeed. Our main goal today is to win the war.”

https://open.substack.com/pub/snyder/p/ ... dium=email

Snyder's current take

Musk making himself very popular!

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... -biography

"Provocation!"

The Naval Forces of Romania and the US will conduct joint exercises "Sea Breeze 23.3" in the Black Sea and the Danube Delta

Personnel from Bulgaria, France, UK, Türkiye and Ukraine will also take part. Training will take place from September 11 to 15.

tabascoboy wrote: Fri Sep 08, 2023 8:36 pm "Provocation!"

The Naval Forces of Romania and the US will conduct joint exercises "Sea Breeze 23.3" in the Black Sea and the Danube Delta

Personnel from Bulgaria, France, UK, Türkiye and Ukraine will also take part. Training will take place from September 11 to 15.

Saw a headline overnight that the US and Philippines are going to hold joint exercises in the South China sea

The RUAG Leopard 1A5 saga is turning into a whole drama of its own. RUAG apparently never got export permits for the tanks to begin with so contractually Italy may still own them. On top of this a German company is claiming that RUAG sold 25 of the tanks to them in 2019. And now it's emerging that Germany and the Netherlands are trying to broker a deal to get the tanks transferred to Greece, with refurb and upgrade in Germany, so the Greeks can send 96 of their own active service Leopard 1A5s directly to Ukraine.

Interesting observation by @gepardtatze. He seems pretty sure that the vehicle being shown is one of those sent to Qatar for the 2022 World Cup.

Guy Smiley wrote: Fri Sep 08, 2023 9:14 pm

tabascoboy wrote: Fri Sep 08, 2023 8:36 pm "Provocation!"

The Naval Forces of Romania and the US will conduct joint exercises "Sea Breeze 23.3" in the Black Sea and the Danube Delta

Personnel from Bulgaria, France, UK, Türkiye and Ukraine will also take part. Training will take place from September 11 to 15.

Saw a headline overnight that the US and Philippines are going to hold joint exercises in the South China sea

Afterparty at Taiwan’s house?

I think it's interesting that everyone seems to be taking the posturing up to another level... and that China is getting a bit of pushback. I guess the presence of an actual war will do that.

Guy Smiley wrote: Sat Sep 09, 2023 7:00 am I think it's interesting that everyone seems to be taking the posturing up to another level... and that China is getting a bit of pushback. I guess the presence of an actual war will do that.

Well the softly, softly approach clearly hasn't been working in the last two decades so time to flex a bit more and ignore all the nonsense about "provocation". China also laid claims this week to an even larger International Waters area of the South China Sea as well as Taiwan of course and the disputed areas with India end even a tiny part of what is now Russian Manchuria...

Not that we haven't hear this before but...

tabascoboy wrote: Sat Sep 09, 2023 7:39 am

Guy Smiley wrote: Sat Sep 09, 2023 7:00 am I think it's interesting that everyone seems to be taking the posturing up to another level... and that China is getting a bit of pushback. I guess the presence of an actual war will do that.

Well the softly, softly approach clearly hasn't been working in the last two decades so time to flex a bit more and ignore all the nonsense about "provocation". China also laid claims this week to an even larger International Waters area of the South China Sea as well as Taiwan of course and the disputed areas with India end even a tiny part of what is now Russian Manchuria...

Not that we haven't hear this before but...

Yup.

They're actually no better than common thieves.

Broken Russia #28477264

With voting underway in the Russian presidential elections, the authorities seem to want to make them even more unfair by handing mobilisation orders to election observers at polling stations.

2/ Russian Communist Party member Alexander Safronov says that in the Black Sea city of Gelendzhik, military registration and enlistment office employees have been handing mobilisation orders to election observers.

3/ "Another electoral disgrace in Gelendzhik," Safronov writes. "Electoral crooks have involved the military registration and enlistment office - they go to commissions, scare observers, and hand out summonses."

4/ The intended message is pretty clear: if you do anything to try to ensure free and fair elections in Russia, you'll be sent to fight and possibly die in Ukraine. /end

So far, the Black Sea basin has not been seen as the highest-priority battleground in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, but it is key to Russia’s economy and, by extension, its war effort. Russia earns a significant part of its income from commercial activities, both legitimate and illegitimate, that depend on unfettered access to the Black Sea. It is the main maritime route Russia uses to re-sell goods plundered from Ukraine, 100% of Russian grain is exported from its Azov and Black Sea ports, and it’s an important trade corridor by which European- and Chinese-manufactured goods reach Russia.

At present, Russia de facto dominates the Black Sea, conducting trade, looting Ukrainian assets, as well as exporting petroleum products and weapons beyond the region. In other words, it is allowed to carry out all manner of military and commercial endeavors in its own interest and essentially without restrictions, while interfering with other countries’ economic activities and impeding lawful freedom of navigation.

Read the full article at: https://www.mei.edu/publications/russia ... challenged

And to nobody's surprise, Ukraine is only the starting point for wider war with the west.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... r-AA1gtZQc?