What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

The Swiss parliament security commission has finally approved the decommissioning and selling of 25 mothballed Leopard 2A4s/Pz 87s to Rheinmetall. This should allow Rheinmetall to transfer 25 tanks from their current stocks in short order as they've been refurbing and upgrading dozens of 2A4s since the beginning of the year.

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Wonder how long it took for Zelenskyy to realise he's having to deal with a useless knob-end...?

[tabascoboy]

The Freedom of Russia legion announced that they have restarted operations in the Bilhorod region in Russia.

"There are no wounded or dead among the legionnaires, we are working according to plan. Leave the tales about minefields to Konashenkov. We continue to cleanse our house of Putin’s filth," they emphasize.

[tabascoboy]

Well this is a bit "in your face!"

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[laurent]

The progress is painfully slow and will grind to a halt soon. See the NYT is running g a few articles saying it's a shit show

https://archive.ph/2023.09.28-195430/ht ... a-war.html

I have less faith in the outcome of all this than some of you it has to be said

NYT has published a load of bollox. From Russian spin doctors
Following some decent French specialists on Mastodon it looks like Ukraine has not committed reserves yet. the Russians are well entrenched however they are losing artillery at a crazy rate and had to commit reserves (VDV to Tokmak area).

[Hellraiser]

The progress is painfully slow and will grind to a halt soon. See the NYT is running g a few articles saying it's a shit show

https://archive.ph/2023.09.28-195430/ht ... a-war.html

I have less faith in the outcome of all this than some of you it has to be said

The NYT has no credibility where Ukraine is concerned.

[Hellraiser]

Watch this latest video from russian state TV.

It will be shown at russia’s tribunal. It will be studied in history classes by your children and grand children.

“You understand that this list [of territories to be conquered] is incomplete. Everyone understands that this list is incomplete.”

“It doesn’t matter what you call it …denazification or demilitarisation. Call it whatever you want. Everyone knows what it really means …the restoration of the russian empire.”

“There are some nations whose existence is pointless.”

This is just one clip of thousands of hours of footage in which the hatred and genocidal intentions of russia are on full display. It’s all documented for history.

He’s right when he says everyone already knows what is happening.

This is your regular reminder that future generations will not be in any doubt that you know right now that russia is a genocidal imperial aggressor. It’s very open about it.

Polling in russia shows russians overwhelmingly believe the goal of their war is territorial conquest, not any of the excuses peddled by its supporters abroad.

All of us around the world will have no plausible deniability that we didn’t know what was going on.

You can see these clips.

You can see the dictator literally standing over imperial era maps, comparing himself to other tsars, and discussing the erasure of a sovereign nation.

You can read endless, carefully documented testimonies from people who have escaped the horrors of russian occupation and its very clearly genocidal nature.

You know about all this. You scrolled past it. History will judge what you do now based on the fact that you know.

It’s the reason no one has ever expressed any confusion about russia’s talk of imperial conquest or its use of neo-nazis to achieve it. Not a single person has ever said: “wait, this doesn’t make sense if it’s just a special operation to denazify and demilitarise Ukraine”. No one has ever said that because, as russian TV makes clear, no one is in doubt about what all this is really about.

Russian soldiers who feign ignorance of being invaders when they are captured actually have no problem boasting of their atrocities in intercepted phone calls.

Academics who insist the war is in some way excusable are suddenly very articulate about why imperialism and genocide is wrong when russia is not doing it.

They know. They have just chosen to support genocidal imperialism in this case. Don’t let them gaslight you with excuses.

There’s one irony here though.

Russia’s war is based on denying the agency of Ukrainians and all nations in the way of russia’s expansionist aggression. However, the key to ending this is for us to respect the agency of those who deny ours.

Don’t think of them as brainwashed or too stupid to know what’s going on.

Respect their agency as supporters of imperial genocide. They are responsible for everything they are doing and must face the consequences of that.

One day, the chorus of propaganda offering excuses will fall silent, as it did during the Nuremberg tribunal. The horrors of russia’s genocidal crimes will be more fully documented.

As after Nuremberg, no one in future will give a shit about the excuses offered in our era to deny or delay the defeat of the genocidal aggressor and bring its leaders to justice.

Make sure you can look your children and grandchildren in the eye and tell them what you did now to help achieve that.

Send this clip to The Hague, along with all the others.

#SpecialTribunalNow

[Brazil]

The progress is painfully slow and will grind to a halt soon. See the NYT is running g a few articles saying it's a shit show

https://archive.ph/2023.09.28-195430/ht ... a-war.html

I have less faith in the outcome of all this than some of you it has to be said

NYT has published a load of bollox. From Russian spin doctors
Following some decent French specialists on Mastodon it looks like Ukraine has not committed reserves yet. the Russians are well entrenched however they are losing artillery at a crazy rate and had to commit reserves (VDV to Tokmak area).

It's not that bad an article, and the stuff about Korea is essentially what a lot of experts have been saying virtually since the start. If there's an error in his analysis, it's assuming that the status quo is going to be maintained. We know that the F16s are coming online, possibly sooner than expected, and that should give the Ukrainians parity in the air war and possibly an advantage. He also seems to underestimate just how difficult breaching the Surovikin line has been thanks to the absurd number of mines laid, so the slight gains are actually impressive under the circumstances. It is significant that these ops can be continued, along with light infantry operations even during the muddy season, allowing for a stronger armoured advance when the ground firms up in winter. The Russians are very overstretched, as the deployment of VDV troops to the front shows. It's like sending the Royal Marines to hold trenchlines, it's not what they're there for, and there's only a finite amount of time that they can do it. The Russian left flank is also vulnerable thanks to the genius tactic of blowing the dam, destroying their defences and giving Ukraine the opportunity to open a second front there. All in all, the prospects for a breakthrough towards Tokmak remain reasonably good and that would threaten the Russian supply lines. Ultimately, it still looks like Ukraine is in better shape, and is the more likely of the sides to make a significant advance.

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

The progress is painfully slow and will grind to a halt soon. See the NYT is running g a few articles saying it's a shit show

https://archive.ph/2023.09.28-195430/ht ... a-war.html

I have less faith in the outcome of all this than some of you it has to be said

NYT has published a load of bollox. From Russian spin doctors
Following some decent French specialists on Mastodon it looks like Ukraine has not committed reserves yet. the Russians are well entrenched however they are losing artillery at a crazy rate and had to commit reserves (VDV to Tokmak area).

It's not that bad an article, and the stuff about Korea is essentially what a lot of experts have been saying virtually since the start. If there's an error in his analysis, it's assuming that the status quo is going to be maintained. We know that the F16s are coming online, possibly sooner than expected, and that should give the Ukrainians parity in the air war and possibly an advantage. He also seems to underestimate just how difficult breaching the Surovikin line has been thanks to the absurd number of mines laid, so the slight gains are actually impressive under the circumstances. It is significant that these ops can be continued, along with light infantry operations even during the muddy season, allowing for a stronger armoured advance when the ground firms up in winter. The Russians are very overstretched, as the deployment of VDV troops to the front shows. It's like sending the Royal Marines to hold trenchlines, it's not what they're there for, and there's only a finite amount of time that they can do it. The Russian left flank is also vulnerable thanks to the genius tactic of blowing the dam, destroying their defences and giving Ukraine the opportunity to open a second front there. All in all, the prospects for a breakthrough towards Tokmak remain reasonably good and that would threaten the Russian supply lines. Ultimately, it still looks like Ukraine is in better shape, and is the more likely of the sides to make a significant advance.

Theiner is in contact with several senior Ukrainian officers, one of whom is a brigade commander in Zaporizhzhia. His sources estimated that the Russians had used 60% of their pre-invasion, mostly Soviet era, mine stockpiles to create the minefields in front of and between the Surovikin lines. They completely ignored their own doctrine in the concentration of mines they laid by a factor of three. If they were supposed to be laying 2 mines per metre squared they actually laid 6 or more.

They basically can't repeat the trick again because they lack the industrial production capacity to create mines on that scale in any sort of a reasonable time frame.

[fishfoodie]

They probably laid three times as many mines as a theorically required, as they now have zero faith in the quality control of the mines, & are hoping fervently that they do contain explosives, & not just sand, & they won't all explode when the ground freezes.

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[geordie_6]

Russia backing Serbia in their buildup on the Kosovo border on an attempt tie up NATO resources and try to slow aid to Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

Russia backing Serbia in their buildup on the Kosovo border on an attempt tie up NATO resources and try to slow aid to Ukraine?

It's pointless. NATO would curb stomp Serbia in 24hrs.

[Hellraiser]

[yermum]

1 hr powerpoints need a TLDR unless its something I'm going to get paid to watch.

[laurent]

1 hr powerpoints need a TLDR unless its something I'm going to get paid to watch.

He is very a interesting analyst (I am not listening to all his stuff though).

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[laurent]

Quite a lot of news from France :
6 more CAESAR https://www.armyrecognition.com/ukraine ... tzers.html
8 Mobile pontoon https://www.armyrecognition.com/ukraine ... idges.html
ARQUUS to potentially set up VAB production in Ukraine https://www.opex360.com/2023/10/01/le-f ... n-ukraine/
Potential reaper like drone production with Antonov (Turgis & Gaillard) this is in prototyping stage https://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-fi ... 78294.html
also Nexter to setup repair / maintenance in Ukraine

[tabascoboy]

Slightly tangential but relevant due to his anti-Ukraine stance. Visit the linked for the story and a batch of supporting images

Who is Robert Fico? Slovak leader’s ties with Russia exposed in hacked files
An analysis of leaked emails reveals that populist Slovak leader Robert Fico developed close ties with Russia’s energy sector to broker gas deals that advantaged Russia and lined his own pockets.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/10/03/ ... ked-files/

[TB63]

[Hellraiser]

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[tabascoboy]

Russian "writer" Aleksey Sukonkin describes his vision for the future of Ukraine: he predicts the repeat of the 1950s anti-Soviet underground movement, and suggests that Russia has rich experience in eliminating resistance. Just read it, it's even crazier than it sounds. He believes it will take Russia 20 years to establish order (kill everyone who doesn't want the Russian world on their land).

Thought I would only read such things in history books. As insane as his words sound, I encourage people to believe this is exactly what is going to happen if we do not stop the Moskva regime and the Kremlin Ripper from achieving their goals.

[Uncle fester]

Russian "writer" Aleksey Sukonkin describes his vision for the future of Ukraine: he predicts the repeat of the 1950s anti-Soviet underground movement, and suggests that Russia has rich experience in eliminating resistance. Just read it, it's even crazier than it sounds. He believes it will take Russia 20 years to establish order (kill everyone who doesn't want the Russian world on their land).

Thought I would only read such things in history books. As insane as his words sound, I encourage people to believe this is exactly what is going to happen if we do not stop the Moskva regime and the Kremlin Ripper from achieving their goals.

On a basic level, yes violent suppression of dissent does work, if you don't mind the place being a backwards shithole after. Small matter of "winning" the SMO first though.

[tabascoboy]

Yes, we should sit down and negotiate a peace with them

[Brazil]

Russian "writer" Aleksey Sukonkin describes his vision for the future of Ukraine: he predicts the repeat of the 1950s anti-Soviet underground movement, and suggests that Russia has rich experience in eliminating resistance. Just read it, it's even crazier than it sounds. He believes it will take Russia 20 years to establish order (kill everyone who doesn't want the Russian world on their land).

Thought I would only read such things in history books. As insane as his words sound, I encourage people to believe this is exactly what is going to happen if we do not stop the Moskva regime and the Kremlin Ripper from achieving their goals.

On a basic level, yes violent suppression of dissent does work, if you don't mind the place being a backwards shithole after. Small matter of "winning" the SMO first though.

That and the fact it will be an occupied country not part of the USSR. He may want to look at how well Afghanistan went in terms of suppression.

[Uncle fester]

If you kill everybody, there'll be no dissent. Now that isn't acceptable to us westerners but it doesn't bother Russians all that much. Their methods worked pretty well in eastern Europe post ww2.

Why it didn't work in Afghanistan and isn't quite working in Syria is worth examining.

[TB63]

Well that's settled then....

[Uncle fester]

Well that's settled then....

Based on eyewitness accounts?

[laurent]

Well that's settled then....

Based on eyewitness accounts?

Indeed

[TB63]

That's it, I'm boycotting Coke....

[tabascoboy]