What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

Every word of Roderich Kiesewetter, German Parliament member of the CDU, is a truth bomb:

- Holding back the TAURUS is irrational. There are no technical or legal issues. The discussion regarding geo data is a divergence. Ukraine has this data since a long time.

- Occupied Crimea is Russia’s primary logistic hub (85%) and its logistic lines must be cut

- Russia must not keep a single meter of Crimea otherwise other countries will take note of this and start to attack their neighbors (Iran, China, Egypt etc.)

- Germany must take the lead to help Ukraine and ease the US’ burden of help. This would give President Biden room to better negotiate with Republicans

- Scholz and a tiny group in the Chancellory still believe that Putin is still a negotiating partner. He is not.

I wish we would have more people like him in Germany.

Danke, Herr Kiesewetter!

#Germany #Ukraine

[Hellraiser]

One of Dozy's multis got nuked for comparing me to Goebbels.

[Hellraiser]

[Calculon]

Bunch of shitkickers

[inactionman]

Bunch of shitkickers

I watched all of that with my buttocks firmly clenched.

They do realise all that stuff goes bang?

[tabascoboy]

This could be interesting from Finland, new claims that the gas pipeline leak in the Gulf of Finland was not an accident but sabotage - press briefing soon...

[EDIT] oh well that seems to have fizzled out with no direct attribution for the leak even though "The Russian survey vessel Sibiryakov was conducting “underwater activities” in by the Balticconector pipeline throughout the summer."

The President of the Republic, Sauli Niinistö , said in a press release from the President's office at 4:00 p.m. that outside activity is suspected to be the cause of the damage to both the gas pipe and the telecommunications cable. On Tuesday, Niinistö discussed the matter with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg . NATO is ready to assist in investigations, Niinistö says.

[Niegs]

That's it, I'm boycotting Coke....

There must be some actually skilled Russian intelligence people from the Cold War era just constantly face-palming at this.

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

In Avdiivka, judging by the lack of joyful proclamations over the past 12 hours, Russians have not been able to achieve any major breakthroughs, but continue attempts to advance, taking serious losses. Khodakovsky says that "Over the past 24 hours, we have managed to worsen the enemy’s position in Avdeevka and reached the lines from which we can control the communication of the Avdeevka garrison with the rest of the group."

Others say that even with success, Avdiivka is too big and well-defended of a stronghold to be taken quickly, and the whole operation may take as much as several months.

Deep State's last night's comment says that the Russian blitzkrieg attempt has failed.

Interesting from Russian volunteer Murz commenting on Avdiivka, saying the offensive had to be started to pull some of the Ukrainian reserves from Bakhmut. It started with attempting to re-take positions already lost to Ukrainians due to a lack of quality infantry for Russians. He says the lack of infantry is now compensated by massive artillery barrages but this won't last long, at least until Ukrainians haven't brought up their own artillery reserves. As the best-case scenario, he says, Russians will make Ukrainian life in Avdiivka more difficult.

[BnM]

In 100 years time when they do those war re-enactments this how I'd imagine it. Weird amateur vibes.

[tabascoboy]

Speculation that this was caused by their own mines as there was no attack ongoing at the time

[tabascoboy]

And another ship suffers "mysterious" explosion - EDITED for update now seems possibly questionable - and EDITED again as SBU now claiming use of "experimental naval drones"

[tabascoboy]

Apparently another pone and not the same as that posted a few days ago

[tabascoboy]

Very long analysis here that needs the supporting images for added context. Have copy-pasted the conclusion anyway to give the gist of it

Conclusions:

The enemy is actively seeking to shift the strategic initiative and mold public perception to their advantage. This determination is evident in their efforts to secure Avdiivka and the Kharkiv region. Their goal is likely to achieve victories that could potentially offset or negate the gains made by the Ukrainian army in the South during the summer and fall of 2023. The intended message is clear: "Regardless of the aid provided to Ukraine, Russia will continue to advance and achieve victories". The gravity of this intent is highlighted by the scale and commitment displayed in this offensive.

I advise you to stay cautious when assessing the overall situation. The Russians appear to be concentrating significant forces in the Avdiivka area, potentially involving more vehicles and personnel than they have already lost, indicating their capability for further advances. Independent observers can verify this by noting that the battle has persisted non-stop for the fourth day, marked by ongoing company-sized (at least) assaults.

The scale of enemy losses has been significant, but keep in mind that this doesn't necessarily preclude them from achieving their objectives. In the eyes of their leadership, the potential gains from this massive assault operation far outweigh the value of the vehicles and human resources expended. This pattern of prioritizing strategic and operational goals over immediate losses has been a consistent historical feature of the Russian and Soviet armies.

The future success of these efforts is likely dependent on the availability of reserves on both sides and the willingness to commit additional forces to this operation.

[tabascoboy]

No indication of how old the video may be, but always good to see one of these taken out

[Uncle fester]

No indication of how old the video may be, but always good to see one of these taken out

Just one explosion and no secondaries?

[tabascoboy]

No indication of how old the video may be, but always good to see one of these taken out

Just one explosion and no secondaries?

Well I'm as far from an expert as can be but

[Uncle fester]

[Hellraiser]

The first results of the exit poll of the parliamentary elections in Poland have appeared:
"Law and Justice" — 36.8%;
"Civic Coalition" — 31.6%;
"Third way" — 13%;
"Left" — 8.65%;
"Confederation" — 6.2%.

Looks like PiS have lost. Still the biggest party but can't form a majority coalition.

[tabascoboy]

Interesting info about the south of Bakhmut that needs verifying but nevertheless states that the defensive nodes south of Bakhmut are being pushed by Ukrainians who are already establishing behind the railway line in the area of Andriivka and Klischiivka.

Russian command in the area is said to be very poor and unwilling, there's a follow-up post with insults towards the former commander in the area, Lt. General Andrey Suchevoy was removed from his position sometime in September/October who allegedly lost "1,5k people just in September" in the area (killed and wounded).

I took the liberty of drawing roughly where the new defensive line (according to the author and WarGonzo) is being established.

[tabascoboy]

A rather happier story for once

[Hellraiser]

The opposition has won a clear majority in the Polish senate.

[tabascoboy]

Ruzzia: Guns not buns

[PornDog]

I love how they've presented that - as if the "Bertha" machine can just switch from producing drones to loaves of bread

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

Further to above

Special operations forces confirmed the attack on airfields in Berdiansk and Luhansk.

As a result of the "DRAGONFLY" operation, nine helicopters of various modifications, special equipment, an air defense launcher, and an ammunition depot were destroyed. Airfield runways were also damaged. Losses in the enemy's manpower amount to dozens of dead and wounded. Bodies are still being pulled from the rubble.

[tabascoboy]

[Enzedder]

When did the cease fire in Ukraine happen.

It appears to be all over (if media reporting here is anything to go by)

[/sarcasm mode]

[tabascoboy]

Following the previous undersea Finland to Estonia cable damage, another incident now

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

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[tabascoboy]

Fark me, there's a Putin calendar

[Niegs]

Fark me, there's a Putin calendar

One with sad Putin 2022/23 images would make a nice dart board if a Ukraine charity could put out their own!

[Slick]

Ruzzia: Guns not buns

Wondered what had happened to Matt Lucas from GBBO

[Calculon]

Brilliant, I hope this isn't an empty threat

[tabascoboy]

They should top one of the RT propagandists. It was clear to a blind man Russia were in on this. It's far from an empty threat in that I would imagine Ukraine will benefit immediately as Israel will see the benefit in exhausting Russias will that bit more

And the Hamas website and domain is apparently registered to Russian hosting service VDSina. VDSina office is located in Moscow.
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Quite a long series of tweets here, I've copy pasted the text of the first and last

Iran is reportedly providing Russia with anti-drone radars, in addition to the kamikaze drones it has already been providing. Ironically, the radars are said to have been designed for Iran by a Russian engineer after Russia had declined to develop them itself.

The decision to close down the NIIDAR and abandon development of radars to detect low-observable targets meant that Russia has been unable to counter Ukraine's use of long-range kamikaze drones. Now, VChK-OGPU says, it is having to buy back the technology from Iran. /end

[tabascoboy]

Nothing to indicate when this happened, but we can hope it's new and one fewer TOS-1A in their armoury
Don't know how much a TOS-1A costs but to be taken out by a mere drone seems a very good return on investment!

[TB63]

That'll buff out..

[Flockwitt]

Just extraordinary losses by the Russians over the last 24 to 48 hours with their blind assaults on Avdiivka. Madness. Utter madness.