NPR

Hellraiser wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2024 1:18 pm

Nikolaevsky Vanek reports that the Russians are currently assembling a 2,000-strong group, which is a hodgepodge of various units, as well as service personnel from airfields and individual representatives of the air defense forces, to prepare for a counteroffensive and the recapture of the city of Sudzha. He also reports that the local population near Kursk is not resisting the Ukrainians, and the main danger to civilians is Russian aviation, which, due to chaos and lack of communication, is striking its own troops.

@yigal_levin

According to Russian sources, there are significant changes as of 17:00.

AFU has taken Martynovka, Kruglik, Myrnyi (now completely) and Bondarevka and have indeed reached the outskirts of Bol'shoe Soldatskoe.
The status of Zamost'e, Dmitriukov, Makhnovka and Kolmakov east of Sudzha is unclear, but are likely under UA control. Needs confirmation.

Sudzha is high likely fully UA controlled or either completely surrounded.

The Russian MoD claims the “destruction of 945 Ukrainian military personnel and 102 armoured vehicles” in the Kursk zone since the beginning of hostilities. Meanwhile, Gerasimov stated the other day that the Ukrainian Armed Forces group that crossed the border amounted to just under 1,000 people. So, everyone has already been killed? Then who controls the occupied territory in Kursk?

Ukrainian forces near Sudzha in the Kursk region captured ammunition depots intended for a Russian offensive on the Sumy region, according to Serhii Bratchuk, Spokesperson for the Head of Odesa Oblast Military Administration.
...
Russian forces are redeploying units and reserves to the Sudzha area, pulling troops from multiple eastern directions, including those recently recovering from previous assaults. The 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment's mortar battery, previously on the Kupyansk front, is already in the Kursk region.

The Kursk NPP is being prepared for defence, — according to russian media.

All power has been cut off at the nuclear power plant's under-construction units, and construction workers have left the site. Security at the plant has been reinforced and the Russian Guard has returned.

Uncle fester wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:46 am Russians are moving troops there now so hit them somewhere else now?

Huge advantage Ukraine have is that they don't have to hold any of this territory. They can withdraw and attack somewhere else.

Russians trying to understand why their army is being destroyed in the Kursk region.

- blames Russian commanders
- blames neo nazis
- says it's all french and polish soldiers

tabascoboy wrote: Sat Aug 10, 2024 11:54 am

Uncle fester wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:46 am Russians are moving troops there now so hit them somewhere else now?

Huge advantage Ukraine have is that they don't have to hold any of this territory. They can withdraw and attack somewhere else.

Jethro wrote: Sat Aug 10, 2024 11:19 pm

Uncle fester wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:46 am Russians are moving troops there now so hit them somewhere else now?

Huge advantage Ukraine have is that they don't have to hold any of this territory. They can withdraw and attack somewhere else.

Am wondering why no push into the Crimea, which is Ukrainian territory to begin with

tabascoboy wrote: Sat Aug 10, 2024 11:18 am

Russians trying to understand why their army is being destroyed in the Kursk region.

- blames Russian commanders
- blames neo nazis
- says it's all french and polish soldiers

Russian military correspondent Kotenok, describing the situation in the Donetsk direction, said that many forces were transferred to Kursk, which eased the pressure on Ukrainians:

"The Ukrainians do not have any serious defense in this direction and are forced to constantly roll back. Ours are trying not to lose the initiative and move forward, but a significant part of the forces have been transferred, you know where."

Since there have been numerous articles and statements on Telegram channels about the movement of Russian and Ukrainian reinforcements to the frontline, specifically the Kursk area, I think it's important to address a few points:

- Both Russian and Ukrainian forces face the same issue: battalions are often pulled from their brigades to reinforce weaker sections of the frontline. This means that when people hear "a brigade has moved," it might actually refer to only one or two battalions.

- We are now at a stage in the war where battalions can be essentially reinforced companies due to shortages of manpower and vehicles. This applies to both sides, as both Russia and Ukraine have created many new units and rapidly expanded their structures but lack enough personnel to fully staff existing units.

- Many OSINT analysts (this is not a criticism, just noting the limitations) often use FPV drone footage to identify the presence of specific units. For example, if X brigade posts a drone video from the Kherson area, it might be concluded that X brigade is operating there. However, native UAV units can be deployed separately for specific operations due to their mobility and effectiveness. Additionally, both Ukrainian and Russian forces have used this for disinformation, deliberately uploading videos from different locations with their logos to confuse the enemy.

Overall, when you read statements like "Another Ukrainian brigade has been spotted in Kursk" or "A Russian regiment from Krynky is heading to Kursk," it could mean anything from a company-sized battalion moving to a full brigade with thousands of personnel and dozens or even hundreds of vehicles.

Hellraiser wrote: Sun Aug 11, 2024 12:26 am

Jethro wrote: Sat Aug 10, 2024 11:19 pm

Uncle fester wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:46 am Russians are moving troops there now so hit them somewhere else now?

Huge advantage Ukraine have is that they don't have to hold any of this territory. They can withdraw and attack somewhere else.

Am wondering why no push into the Crimea, which is Ukrainian territory to begin with

Because there's a big fucking river, massive Russian fortifications, and a 10 km wide minefields in the way. The Russian border is basically undefended.

As I pointed out yesterday, the Russians are now taking very seriously the fact that the AFU in the Kursk region are here to stay. This morning, several bloggers are talking about this, warning that victorious reports are harmful. Dislodging even the existing group of the AFU will be extremely challenging.

Jethro wrote: Sat Aug 10, 2024 11:19 pm

Uncle fester wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:46 am Russians are moving troops there now so hit them somewhere else now?

Huge advantage Ukraine have is that they don't have to hold any of this territory. They can withdraw and attack somewhere else.

Am wondering why no push into the Crimea, which is Ukrainian territory to begin with

As Ukrainian forces advance in the Kursk region, law and order in frontline Russian-held areas is reported to have collapsed completely. "Rampant looting" is said have broken out – being done by the Russians themselves – while local residents say they feel abandoned.

Hellraiser wrote: Sun Aug 11, 2024 12:26 am

Jethro wrote: Sat Aug 10, 2024 11:19 pm

Uncle fester wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:46 am Russians are moving troops there now so hit them somewhere else now?

Huge advantage Ukraine have is that they don't have to hold any of this territory. They can withdraw and attack somewhere else.

Am wondering why no push into the Crimea, which is Ukrainian territory to begin with

Because there's a big fucking river, massive Russian fortifications, and a 10 km wide minefields in the way. The Russian border is basically undefended.

Jethro wrote: Tue Aug 13, 2024 12:32 am

Hellraiser wrote: Sun Aug 11, 2024 12:26 am

Jethro wrote: Sat Aug 10, 2024 11:19 pm

Am wondering why no push into the Crimea, which is Ukrainian territory to begin with

Because there's a big fucking river, massive Russian fortifications, and a 10 km wide minefields in the way. The Russian border is basically undefended.

You are assuming a land based assault.

1/ The Russian publication 'Interesting Stories' has published a lengthy interview with a former Russian army officer who opposed the invasion of Ukraine. He explains how the Ukrainians were able to invade the Kursk region so easily. Here are some extracts.

2/ The former officer comments that the Russian Volunteer Corps and Freedom of Russia Legion began mounting raids into the Kursk region in March 2024. This was done to observe "how quickly they respond to your arrival, how many forces are there, where, what, how."
3/ While the Ukrainians were gathering intelligence on the ground, the officer says, the Russians didn't react: "what changed on our side [on the border] in six months? Fucking nothing."
4/ And when all these raids on the Kursk direction started, the border guards only had light firearms, no heavy equipment, and the border was practically always open. But nothing changed in six months.
5/ Authorities allocated money to strengthen the border: ‘dragon’s teeth,’ trenches were supposedly dug — but mostly, the money, as usual, was fucked up [i.e. stolen]."
6/ Those on the border knew something was up, he says, but were brushed off by the general command. "As usual, all requests up the chain were met with: ‘We have everything under control; intelligence reports that nothing has been noticed.’"

7/ When the Ukrainians began their offensive, "they arrived in groups and just started pushing forward without securing positions. Just further and further — one swift push."
8/ "Because if they were to secure positions, it would give us more time and opportunities to bring in troops to stop them. So they just push forward as fast as possible, while ours are talking shit, arguing, showing up, and filming reports.
9/ "As they say in the army: ‘If you want to defeat Russia, declare war, and it will fuck itself up with inspections.’"
10/ The main Ukrainian force has been preceded by a screening force of long-range sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRGs) which "go even further — and start digging in. And when the Russian troops finally show up, the DRGs start attacking them."

11/ "In this situation, our forces didn’t just respond late — they didn’t respond [properly] at all ... they surrender in whole packs, because, firstly, the conscripts don’t know how to fight, and secondly, they don’t have the weapons to repel such attacks."
12/ The former officer says that the Ukrainian offensive has been aided by catastrophically poor Russian command decisions, such as the sending of hundreds of troops in a convoy that was obliterated by HIMARS strikes at Rylsk on the night of 9 August.

13/ "At least on the front line, after some time and massive losses, they figured out that driving in a convoy is suicide. But those sitting here still drive in convoys and think they’re going to a parade.
14/ "The AFU has drones, has rockets — what kind of fucking idiot would lead a convoy in this case, and one that’s even being filmed for the news. That’s why the guys died, without even getting there."
15/ He doubts that the Ukrainians will go much further into Russia, as the line of the breakthrough is small and there is a significant risk of encirclement. "As soon as our forces start doing something right and pull in reserves, they can block the [AFU] approaches from Ukraine.
16/ "The Russian army will encircle them, stop the flow of resources, then just tighten the ring and destroy them all."
As for the local civilians, the former officer believes they will be written off by the Russian authorities.

17/ "Since this is Russia, we won’t give a fuck about the civilians left there. It’s already clear that the locals have been abandoned to fend for themselves — people there are on their own.
18/ "They’ll level everything with artillery and aviation: after all, what is Kursk Oblast compared to Russia?”

Yesterday, videos circulated showing Ukraine losing 8 BTR-4Es, leading some observers to panic, claiming it's over and that Ukraine is losing its way. This perspective is misguided.

The loss is indeed tragic, and it's heartbreaking to know that lives were lost in that assault. Our mechanized forces suffered both equipment and human losses. Given Ukraine's more limited resources compared to Russia, I wish this hadn't happened.

However, it's important to remember that Ukraine is fighting an opponent that is ten times larger, wealthier, and better equipped. It's unrealistic to expect Ukraine to always carry out flawless operations.

For instance, while attention is focused on Kursk, the Russians launched an assault on Lyptsi yesterday with six tanks and around 30 infantry riding on top. Most of them were destroyed (see the next tweet), yet few people seem to take notice. Don't underestimate the immense skill of our troops in repelling Russian invaders. It's a tough fight, and Ukraine is achieving a great deal.

Jürgen Nauditt
@jurgen_nauditt

The German IRIS-T air defense systems have proven to be 100% effective in Ukraine, according to military historian Andriy Haruk, who wrote about this in a blog for "Militarnyy."

Since their deployment in October 2022, the IRIS-T systems have been actively defending Ukraine's airspace. Haruk highlighted the exceptional performance of these systems, citing the manufacturer, Diehl Defense. From October 2022 to June 2024, the IRIS-T systems successfully intercepted more than 240 targets, achieving a remarkable 100% hit rate—every missile fired reached its intended target.
United24

Biffer wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 8:01 am

Jethro wrote: Sat Aug 10, 2024 11:19 pm

Uncle fester wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:46 am Russians are moving troops there now so hit them somewhere else now?

Huge advantage Ukraine have is that they don't have to hold any of this territory. They can withdraw and attack somewhere else.

Am wondering why no push into the Crimea, which is Ukrainian territory to begin with

Stops Putin and his apologists putting forward peace based on current territory.

Jethro wrote: Tue Aug 13, 2024 10:43 pm

Biffer wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 8:01 am

Jethro wrote: Sat Aug 10, 2024 11:19 pm

Am wondering why no push into the Crimea, which is Ukrainian territory to begin with

Stops Putin and his apologists putting forward peace based on current territory.

Thanks Biff, from reading it would appear any sort of cease fire would only benefit Putin, hence this one is going to drag on till Putin is out of power and some sort of compromise is reached.

Of course Trump could prevail in the U.S Pres election, and the orange demi-god is going to end the war in one day

With the Kursk operation proceeding beyond all expectations, Ukraine has reminded both Russia and the West that the war is far from settled.

I wonder whether many decision-makers and analysts in the west fully appreciate what’s at stake in this war. Some thoughts:

First: there’s no “deal solution” available. Not even Trump can “deal his way out” because there’s no status quo to return to.

At this point the war has unfolded a global effect that is the question whether the western-dominated rules-based world order will prevail. It’s very much a win or lose situation. Russia has gathered around itself a group of states (Iran, North Korea, China) that are eager to challenge the West’s dominant position and all profit from the continuation of the war.

It’s a wild illusion that China would have any interest to pressure Russia to stop this war. On the contrary, it’s keeping Russia going because it’s very convenient for China that the US is putting both attention and resources into this - as well as the Gaza war.

At some point, also the countries in the so-called “global south” that are currently still hedging, might have to choose what kind of an international system suits them best - one dominated by China, with the support of Russia and Iran, or what the West has to offer.

In Europe, there’s a perfect chance to send both the Kremlin and Russians a message that they need to stop choosing violence because that’s not a way to live in the 21st century.

At the same time, we can help Ukraine become a prosperous and strong member of the European family. Helping Ukraine end this war on favourable terms and integrating it into NATO and EU will give it an optimal framework to combat corruption, fortify democracy, support its already strong civil society and make it an overall productive member of a future European security order. Giving up on Ukraine and selling out its territory in a misguided deal (which isn’t inevitable, as Ukraine is just showing in Kursk) would create conditions similar to Finland after the Winter War:

Bitterly disappointed population, likely political turmoil, & possibly revanchism

European leaders should ask themselves: do we want to risk failing Ukraine, which could lead to an attempt to take back what they feel they lost unfairly, due to lack of support and even obstruction by partners ? A renewed, likely much less controllable war would probably result .

European countries have an urgent self-interest in having Ukraine in NATO. We definitely want Ukraine on our side. It’s Europe’s most combat-experienced military and likely also the most innovative one. We want that know how on our side, not for it to go rogue

A long thread short:

It’s by far not inevitable that this war will have to end in a compromise unfavourable to Ukraine. The doomerism that has dominated the analytical and news landscape is simply not warranted. Nothing is decided yet and the West can still do the right thing.