NPR

Hellraiser wrote: Sun Sep 08, 2024 3:05 pm

They've run out of yuan to trade with China?

Looks like the Yanks are going to lift restrictions on long range strikes inside Russia with ATACMs and Western cruise missiles in response to Iran giving ballistic missiles to Russia.

Hellraiser wrote: Wed Sep 11, 2024 6:23 pm Looks like the Yanks are going to lift restrictions on long range strikes inside Russia with ATACMs and Western cruise missiles in response to Iran giving ballistic missiles to Russia.

Iran may yet regret taking their position. Budanov said a few days ago that the strike radius for Ukrainian produced long range drones was now 1800km. As the crow flies that does start putting Iran in range, and Ukraine can credibly say there are legitimate Iranian targets (factories producing missiles and drones etc). Realistically Ukraine would need something with a longer range, as the best route would be over Russia and over the Caspian Sea which isn't direct. Russia's ability to defend even key infrastructure and military bases has been shown to be poor, doubt they've got much air defence in that region any more capable than what they have around Moscow. A mass Ukrainian drone strike on Tehran isn't completely unthinkable, they certainly have the balls and the means is getting closer.

There was a drone attack on different Iranian weapons factories at the start of 2023 that was quite helpful for Ukraine, it's likely Israel was behind it. Israel will have a lot of targeting information, if they don't want to provide it Turkey is friendly with Ukraine and not so friendly with Iran, they likely have info. If both those decline Azerbaijan has a tense relationship with Iran, and is in a strategic military partnership with Turkey and an under the table one with Israel, whilst their main enemy Armenia is backed by Russia openly and Iran under the table.

Possible Ukraine is using their growing ability to spread the conflict, to gain permission from Western partners to allow more significant and deeper attacks directly on Russia. That's a total guess though.

They've had a hard enough time getting approval to hit targets in Russia. Don't think sending missile flights over Turkey/Azerbaijan/Georgia are going to get approval.

It'll be Israel. Suits them to win some kudos with the yanks.

Uncle fester wrote: Thu Sep 12, 2024 5:42 pm They've had a hard enough time getting approval to hit targets in Russia. Don't think sending missile flights over Turkey/Azerbaijan/Georgia are going to get approval.

It'll be Israel. Suits them to win some kudos with the yanks.

Ah come on, the post wasn't that long. There's a route to Tehran from Ukraine that goes over Russia and the Caspian Sea. Wouldn't go near Turkey or Georgia, it's drones so the flight path doesn't need to be straight. That may still violate some air space other than Russia's and Iran's, but it'll be over water and they'll be flying low so no one will know or be able to stop them anyway.

Russia has also already violated airspace and agreements over the Caspian Sea in this conflict and in the Syrian conflict, they use it as a launching point for cruise missiles. Ukraine has tracked cruise missiles hitting Ukrainian cities to Tu-95s launching from over the Caspian Sea:
https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/30295

Ukraine definitely has a drone capability with a 1000km strike range, 1800km is claimed and there is some evidence it exists (Russian air raid sirens going off about 2000km out from Ukraine). They are probably close to being technically capable of hitting Tehran with Ukrainian produced drones.

Hellraiser wrote: Wed Sep 11, 2024 6:23 pm Looks like the Yanks are going to lift restrictions on long range strikes inside Russia with ATACMs and Western cruise missiles in response to Iran giving ballistic missiles to Russia.

Prompting another round of sabre rattling towards NATO from Sad Vlad.

Hellraiser wrote: Sun Sep 08, 2024 3:05 pm

Not wanting to watch an hour PowerPoint is there at tldr on this one?

yermum wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2024 8:39 am
Not wanting to watch an hour PowerPoint is there at tldr on this one?

The Russian war economy is trucking along, the increased spending has ensured they're staying out of recession, they're increasing military production, they're still getting parts they need for key weapons systems despite the sanctions, oil sales have provided enough foreign exchange to fund the war effort... but everything is on a knife edge. The labour force has accute shortages which any further mobilisation is going to create major problems (mobilisation will mean another exodus besides those drafted), inflation is accelerating, the long term impact of funding the war will be huge, and there are other issues whose impact has still to be felt like Ukraine's ever increasingly successful attacks on Russian infrastructure which are only going to exacerbate next year's problems.

That's a decent distance away from Ukraine territory... probably slightly further than Moscow.

tabascoboy wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2024 4:36 pm

I'm going to assume that, even if they did give the go-ahead, they're not actually going to tell Russia that they gave the go-ahead?

And also picked up on seismometers as a 3.2

Nice one Ukraine - this one hit the spot

India is supplying ammunition to Ukraine despite Russia's objections. European countries like the Czech Republic, Spain, and Italy are purchasing the ammunition and sending it to Ukraine. Russia has raised this issue twice with Indian representatives, but India has stated it is not directly supplying Ukraine

In terms of shockwaves , how similar would a tactical nuke blast be to those if you were a similar distance away ?
The only other blast vids I’ve seen have been 1950’s bomb tests and the Beirut warehouse thing , but I have zero idea of scale and what modern weapons can do.

The Russians knew the Kursk incursion was coming?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... dApp_Other
Makes it even more embarrassing.

Surprisingly, even the staged talk show of the Russian State Duma occasionally confronts uncomfortable truths.

During a recent session, a representative of the Communist Party raised a pointed question about the legal loophole that exempts individuals from criminal liability by signing military contracts. He criticised this as turning the Russian army into "an army of bandits" and a means of legally evading justice.

In response, he was bluntly told that the expectation is for Russian soldiers to die in combat before they can take advantage of such "liberation."

Germany delivered another substantial military aid package to Ukraine.
The package includes:
22 Leopard 1A5 tanks
22 MRAPs
5 BV206 tracked all-terrain vehicles
1 Warthog All Terrain Tracked Carrier
3 Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns
2 TRML-4D air surveillance radars
61,000 rounds 155mm ammunition
30 Vector reconnaissance drones
20 RQ-35 Heidrun reconnaissance drones
20 unmanned surface vessels
12 Songbird reconnaissance drones
6 Hornet XR
3 Beaver bridge-laying tanks
1 Dachs armored engineer vehicle
6 Wisent 1 mine clearing tanks
16 ground surveillance radars
2 AMPS self-protection systems for helicopters
2 border protection vehicles
material for explosive ordnance disposal
112 vehicles (trucks, minibuses, all-terrain vehicles)
8 Zetros tankers
10 MG3 machine guns with 500 spare barrels and breechblocks
1 million rounds of ammunition for fire arms

Thank you for your unwavering support!

#StandWithUkraine
@BMVg_Bundeswehr

Satellite imagery shows the impressive job the drones made of that ammo dump !

And in a surprise to no one, the Ukrainians are upgrading their Leopard 1A5s with a shit ton of ERA.

Hellraiser wrote: Fri Sep 20, 2024 9:42 pm And in a surprise to no one, the Ukrainians are upgrading their Leopard 1A5s with a shit ton of ERA.

BUT !!!

Do they have the chicken coop COPE cages that make them a real 21st century MBT ??

fishfoodie wrote: Fri Sep 20, 2024 9:48 pm

Hellraiser wrote: Fri Sep 20, 2024 9:42 pm And in a surprise to no one, the Ukrainians are upgrading their Leopard 1A5s with a shit ton of ERA.

BUT !!!

Do they have the chicken coop COPE cages that make them a real 21st century MBT ??

Without being facetious, they actually do. They are in the stowed position, but there is anti-drone mesh "cages" on the turret and engine bay. Technically all these upgrades make the tanks a new variant, the 1A5V.

There's a consensus on Twitter that around 70 - 90% of the main Toropets site was destroyed in the first strike, now this...

It appears that the second ammunition site in Toropets, Tver region, in Russia has been struck. NASA FIRMS indicates that the entire facility is burning.

The site is 16 km (10 miles) from the other Toropets ammunition storage, which got incinerated three days ago.

There are some reports that the strike at Toropets involved an upgraded Neptune missile with a three times larger explosive load.

Toropets must have been very high on the NATO priority targets in the case of any conventional RU land attack towards the Baltic states and Poland. Based on the extraordinary ease and success by UA in this highly effective destruction any such attack would likely have had a massive early setback...

Ammo dump in Kammenyi, Krasnodar Krai (southern Russia) confirmed goneburger.

This is an excellent vid from hromadske (English subtitles) on Chasiv Yar that illustrates the issues the Ukrainians have really well. You see how difficult it is to get to their front positions, the supply and evac problems, the relentless assaults.

It's the same lass, Diana, who panicked a bit when she visited Bhakmut and pleased to see she's still there.

The madness of average people still doing their daily chores in the midst of all this as has been and is a happening everywhere on the front line - a woman chopping wood while everybody else is ducking for cover as the FPV drones buzz by.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZINTZMDaoBc

Putin's ordered another 180,000 troops - but not mobilised.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 024-09-16/

This is supposedly going to be paid for/"volunteers". It's a curious point of the war, because just where is Russia going to get these troops without mobilisation? The funding will have to be increased again, more semi-reservists like the repair technicians are going to be forced into the front line. This will certainly bear watching. People all over the globe are now well aware this is a one way trip, there's no one year contract and you can leave.

Flockwitt wrote: Sat Sep 21, 2024 10:07 pm Putin's ordered another 180,000 troops - but not mobilised.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 024-09-16/

This is supposedly going to be paid for/"volunteers". It's a curious point of the war, because just where is Russia going to get these troops without mobilisation? The funding will have to be increased again, more semi-reservists like the repair technicians are going to be forced into the front line. This will certainly bear watching. People all over the globe are now well aware this is a one way trip, there's no one year contract and you can leave.

The Beeb had a good article this week on the Orcs hitting 70k dead, & they highlighted one of these "volunteers", a 62 year old, who went from working two menial jobs out in the republics to being a "volunteer", & lasted a few weeks before going back in a body bag.

The bounty might have gone up, but it's just because they need to increase that initial sign-on payment to hook in the new suckers, but they know damn well that this is just fresh meat for the sausage machine, & whoever they hire won't be collecting any benefits at the end of their contract; (a) because the contracts don't have any end point, which was quietly removed, & (b) because there's less than fuck all chance of them surviving.

Bottom line, 180k "volunteers", might just turn into 18k recruit years of actual contribution.

This is going to get ultra-nasty, like the story of the Ghanians who thought they were being hired for construction work now calling for help as they find themselves in a military camp slated to be sent to the front line.

But the current serious problems of drawing on government and paramilitary organisations that has been ongoing is only going to be exacurbated. Russia's gone all in for the anything but mobilisation route - which isn't going to be quick enough to raise the necessary troops in time by conventional methods.

Flockwitt wrote: Sat Sep 21, 2024 10:31 pm This is going to get ultra-nasty, like the story of the Ghanians who thought they were being hired for construction work now calling for help as they find themselves in a military camp slated to be sent to the front line.

But the current serious problems of drawing on government and paramilitary organisations that has been ongoing is only going to be exacurbated. Russia's gone all in for the anything but mobilisation route - which isn't going to be quick enough to raise the necessary troops in time by conventional methods.

Please stop referring to this as, "Russia's" problem !

There is no "Russia", there is just Putin !

Russia is an imaginary construct that exists only in the mind of whatever delusional cunt currently occupies the Kremlin, dreaming of past realms.

The dying POS sold this crap to russians as a easy win to bring back a stolen republic into Mother Russia; & he did it with the nod-wink that no actual Russians would die bring them back into the fold, but that they'd use the tried & true tactic of letting the other nationalities do all they fighting & dying.

The war will only be won for Ukraine when the recruiting is happening in St Petersburg & Moscow; then it will be people that matter who'll be dying.

I read the other day that Russia has knocked out something like 80% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, with winter coming.

In return, Ukraine seems to be trying to knock out Russia's ability to fight, targetting ammo and machine stores. This is an ugly grind trying to wear each other down... I would like to see Ukraine able to use long range weaponry and hitting Putin right in the cities where you hope sentiment will turn against him rapidly in the face of casualties and damage.

fishfoodie wrote: Sat Sep 21, 2024 10:48 pm

Flockwitt wrote: Sat Sep 21, 2024 10:31 pm This is going to get ultra-nasty, like the story of the Ghanians who thought they were being hired for construction work now calling for help as they find themselves in a military camp slated to be sent to the front line.

But the current serious problems of drawing on government and paramilitary organisations that has been ongoing is only going to be exacurbated. Russia's gone all in for the anything but mobilisation route - which isn't going to be quick enough to raise the necessary troops in time by conventional methods.

Please stop referring to this as, "Russia's" problem !

There is no "Russia", there is just Putin !

Russia is an imaginary construct that exists only in the mind of whatever delusional cunt currently occupies the Kremlin, dreaming of past realms.

The dying POS sold this crap to russians as a easy win to bring back a stolen republic into Mother Russia; & he did it with the nod-wink that no actual Russians would die bring them back into the fold, but that they'd use the tried & true tactic of letting the other nationalities do all they fighting & dying.

The war will only be won for Ukraine when the recruiting is happening in St Petersburg & Moscow; then it will be people that matter who'll be dying.

Unfortunately you are wrong about the Russian point if you're trying to divorce Putin and Russia. "Russia" exists in all western governments' idea of what the world de facto realtiy is. Why do you think Germany still refuses to send Taurus? Why are guys like Jake Sullivan able to peddle their crap? Because Russia as a state does exist, it has nukes, and the next nutter that gets into power might well be Mendvedev. This is a 'Russian' problem because the current government is the best they've got. And for a chunk of the meaningful countries in the rest of the world, they want to keep at least a version of it in power - the stinking point about Ukraine being drip fed and having to do all the dying.

And to the Russian's it is a Russian problem - they want the strong arm Russia. They love Putin for his ability to bully all the states around Russia, this is how Russia came to be after all. Putin's grab of Crimea and Donbas was celebrated. Russia won't change till this attitude changes.

"The war will only be won for Ukraine when the recruiting is happening in St Petersburg & Moscow; then it will be people that matter who'll be dying"
This is true enough which is why they've baukled at another mobilisation, though there's another aspect to it - the economy will take a hit it may not surivive and Putin will have to deal with an economic crisis which will be more serious to him than a few hundred thousand more dead.

Where it goes for Putin is hard to say, the cracks will really start to appear next year. But I wouldn't hold out too much hope for a regime change as being the catalyst for a Ukrainian 'victory IMO'.

Must admit to being completely ignorant of this war and the region, besides Putin bad

From vids and articles I am reading seems the Russian military is facing complete collapse, with the only interest being if the economy collapses first. Any truth to this or am I getting Ukraine propaganda. Seems unlikely the Russian military is going to collapse due to the huge industry of corruption involved there.

Jethro wrote: Sat Sep 21, 2024 11:33 pm Must admit to being completely ignorant of this war and the region, besides Putin bad

From vids and articles I am reading seems the Russian military is facing complete collapse, with the only interest being if the economy collapses first. Any truth to this or am I getting Ukraine propaganda. Seems unlikely the Russian military is going to collapse due to the huge industry of corruption involved there.

Russia's military collapse is a couple of years away, I wouldn't hold my breath. In the meantime there could be more significant issues, like if Trump gets into power and cuts all aid to Ukraine by executive order and demands an immediate cease fire.