So, coronavirus...

[Rinkals]

I would suggest that saying all of Europe across the board have failed on covid19 as much as the UK has is a bit misleading, the likes of Norway, Denmark, Finland have done much better than us with less than 25% of the deaths per million that we have had. Germany has a death rate of 50% of the UKs, ditto Ireland. Even France and Spain have a lower death rate than the UK. Belgium is worse than the UK, along with Slovenia and Italy and Portugal aren't far behind the UK. It is without doubt that the UK has done remarkably badly in responding to covid19 pandemic if you use deaths per million population as a measure of success/failure. Even allowing for some differences in recording of deaths etc the numbers don't lie. Most countries in Europe have done better, some a lot better. The question is was our UK Gov response to covid19 pandemic the root cause of our deplorable death rate? I would suggest it is.

Countries did better than us, but still did shit, though circumstances helped some nations more than others as population, size, density, geography interconnectivity. Finland had a comparable death total with Australia despite them having a population 5 times smaller and far fewer visitors. All were still relatively late in talking action and could have prevented deaths. They all made similar mistakes and they all failed to learn from the first peak until the 2nd was overwhelmingly happening. Some more than others.

That's not excusing the UK but I forgive all the countries for mistakes for the 1st peak. However I'm not exempting any country for their winter mistakes when New Zealand among others gave a fine example of exactly what is a successful response that could heave been applied more seriously for the winter.

The virus seems completely impervious to warmer weather. South Africa's massive second wave happened in the middle of summer.

Didn't it have more to do with complacency rather than any seasonal factor?

When we lifted the booze restrictions and allowed social mixing, everybody went mal.

We had those big super spreader post-matric boozeups in Balito which brought the virus back to Gauteng.

Also, all the township shebeens went moggy, celebrating the defeat of the virus.

Once winter sets in, I suspect that the conditions for a third wave will be a lot better.

[dpedin]

I would suggest that saying all of Europe across the board have failed on covid19 as much as the UK has is a bit misleading, the likes of Norway, Denmark, Finland have done much better than us with less than 25% of the deaths per million that we have had. Germany has a death rate of 50% of the UKs, ditto Ireland. Even France and Spain have a lower death rate than the UK. Belgium is worse than the UK, along with Slovenia and Italy and Portugal aren't far behind the UK. It is without doubt that the UK has done remarkably badly in responding to covid19 pandemic if you use deaths per million population as a measure of success/failure. Even allowing for some differences in recording of deaths etc the numbers don't lie. Most countries in Europe have done better, some a lot better. The question is was our UK Gov response to covid19 pandemic the root cause of our deplorable death rate? I would suggest it is.

You are correct but a couple of things should be mentioned.
We can’t compare countries with not only a population of 5 million but mainly with a density of less than 20/sq kilometer like Finland, Norway and even Danemark with others like Belgium ( 376/sq K) or the UK 68 million (270/ sq K)
My other point will be gov & people,
Germany did very well until fall, don’t forget that Merkel has a doctorate in Quantum chemistry and she believes in science as the contrary of your PM and my past moron in chief, then the German people like the Brits, Yanks French etc... decided they deserved to have fun and masks and social distancing was bs... we know the results. Almost no government were up to the task beside a few like NZ and ?..

Again pop density is not a factor - many of the SE Asia countries have higher pop density that UK yet have lower death rates and have done remarkably well compared to UK. International studies have found no correlation between pop density and covid deaths across countries, there may be some within countries but that probably reflects deprivation and poor PH and medical systems i.e. the USA? The SE Asia countries also have populations similar or larger than ours.

If we had a similar death rate per million to Germany then c60,000 lives would have been saved. If we had a similar one to Denmark the c90,000 lives would have been saved. Also something like 50% of all UK deaths have happened in the last 4 months, despite having time to learn the lessons from the previous 6 months. All the PH research I have seen suggests that the key determinant in how a country has performed in managing the pandemic and keeping deaths low is how their gov has performed in deciding and implementing good, standard PH practices - lock down quick, hard and longer than you might want, shut borders, implement robust test, track and trace, help folk to isolate and support local community based PH responses to local outbreaks.

Whilst I agree some of the international comparisons are problematic the numbers are the numbers and they tell a story, however it was Eldaniefire who made the comparison suggesting all the countries in Europe were equally as bad in managing the pandemic , I was just suggesting that the figures don't support that statement and if we go there then the UK is bottom or close to bottom of the league on almost all of the stats you look at.

[FalseBayFC]

Countries did better than us, but still did shit, though circumstances helped some nations more than others as population, size, density, geography interconnectivity. Finland had a comparable death total with Australia despite them having a population 5 times smaller and far fewer visitors. All were still relatively late in talking action and could have prevented deaths. They all made similar mistakes and they all failed to learn from the first peak until the 2nd was overwhelmingly happening. Some more than others.

That's not excusing the UK but I forgive all the countries for mistakes for the 1st peak. However I'm not exempting any country for their winter mistakes when New Zealand among others gave a fine example of exactly what is a successful response that could heave been applied more seriously for the winter.

The virus seems completely impervious to warmer weather. South Africa's massive second wave happened in the middle of summer.

Didn't it have more to do with complacency rather than any seasonal factor?

When we lifted the booze restrictions and allowed social mixing, everybody went mal.

We had those big super spreader post-matric boozeups in Balito which brought the virus back to Gauteng.

Also, all the township shebeens went moggy, celebrating the defeat of the virus.

Once winter sets in, I suspect that the conditions for a third wave will be a lot better.

Yep but early on there was speculation that the heat would play a factor in the virus's survival. It's not just the big superspreader events. In rural,peri-urban and urban areas there is almost zero adherence to protocols amongst the poor. I've been volunteering in Langa and the Cape Flats and people tend to socialize outside. If anything I think there will be less mixing in winter. Poor people stay indoors to keep warm and mix less.

[FalseBayFC]

You are correct but a couple of things should be mentioned.
We can’t compare countries with not only a population of 5 million but mainly with a density of less than 20/sq kilometer like Finland, Norway and even Danemark with others like Belgium ( 376/sq K) or the UK 68 million (270/ sq K)
My other point will be gov & people,
Germany did very well until fall, don’t forget that Merkel has a doctorate in Quantum chemistry and she believes in science as the contrary of your PM and my past moron in chief, then the German people like the Brits, Yanks French etc... decided they deserved to have fun and masks and social distancing was bs... we know the results. Almost no government were up to the task beside a few like NZ and ?..

Samoa. The Samoan response seems to have been even more successful than NZ but you don't see anyone gushing over....
Tuimalealiifano Va'aletoa Sualauvi II

Mainly because they can't spell it!!

I had to google him.

[Ovals]

I would suggest that saying all of Europe across the board have failed on covid19 as much as the UK has is a bit misleading, the likes of Norway, Denmark, Finland have done much better than us with less than 25% of the deaths per million that we have had. Germany has a death rate of 50% of the UKs, ditto Ireland. Even France and Spain have a lower death rate than the UK. Belgium is worse than the UK, along with Slovenia and Italy and Portugal aren't far behind the UK. It is without doubt that the UK has done remarkably badly in responding to covid19 pandemic if you use deaths per million population as a measure of success/failure. Even allowing for some differences in recording of deaths etc the numbers don't lie. Most countries in Europe have done better, some a lot better. The question is was our UK Gov response to covid19 pandemic the root cause of our deplorable death rate? I would suggest it is.

You are correct but a couple of things should be mentioned.
We can’t compare countries with not only a population of 5 million but mainly with a density of less than 20/sq kilometer like Finland, Norway and even Danemark with others like Belgium ( 376/sq K) or the UK 68 million (270/ sq K)
My other point will be gov & people,
Germany did very well until fall, don’t forget that Merkel has a doctorate in Quantum chemistry and she believes in science as the contrary of your PM and my past moron in chief, then the German people like the Brits, Yanks French etc... decided they deserved to have fun and masks and social distancing was bs... we know the results. Almost no government were up to the task beside a few like NZ and ?..

Again pop density is not a factor - many of the SE Asia countries have higher pop density that UK yet have lower death rates and have done remarkably well compared to UK. International studies have found no correlation between pop density and covid deaths across countries, there may be some within countries but that probably reflects deprivation and poor PH and medical systems i.e. the USA? The SE Asia countries also have populations similar or larger than ours.

If we had a similar death rate per million to Germany then c60,000 lives would have been saved. If we had a similar one to Denmark the c90,000 lives would have been saved. Also something like 50% of all UK deaths have happened in the last 4 months, despite having time to learn the lessons from the previous 6 months. All the PH research I have seen suggests that the key determinant in how a country has performed in managing the pandemic and keeping deaths low is how their gov has performed in deciding and implementing good, standard PH practices - lock down quick, hard and longer than you might want, shut borders, implement robust test, track and trace, help folk to isolate and support local community based PH responses to local outbreaks.

Whilst I agree some of the international comparisons are problematic the numbers are the numbers and they tell a story, however it was Eldaniefire who made the comparison suggesting all the countries in Europe were equally as bad in managing the pandemic , I was just suggesting that the figures don't support that statement and if we go there then the UK is bottom or close to bottom of the league on almost all of the stats you look at.

Intuitively you'd have to think that pop density is a factor - but maybe it becomes so more when populations are very mobile and travel around widely - as is the case in places like the UK, but, perhaps, less so in some less wealthy countries.

[Saint]

Just 150k doses delivered yesterday. I know that the expectation is that there will be a significant ramp up once AZ and Pfizer come back online, but this is a very large drop off.

[dpedin]

You are correct but a couple of things should be mentioned.
We can’t compare countries with not only a population of 5 million but mainly with a density of less than 20/sq kilometer like Finland, Norway and even Danemark with others like Belgium ( 376/sq K) or the UK 68 million (270/ sq K)
My other point will be gov & people,
Germany did very well until fall, don’t forget that Merkel has a doctorate in Quantum chemistry and she believes in science as the contrary of your PM and my past moron in chief, then the German people like the Brits, Yanks French etc... decided they deserved to have fun and masks and social distancing was bs... we know the results. Almost no government were up to the task beside a few like NZ and ?..

Again pop density is not a factor - many of the SE Asia countries have higher pop density that UK yet have lower death rates and have done remarkably well compared to UK. International studies have found no correlation between pop density and covid deaths across countries, there may be some within countries but that probably reflects deprivation and poor PH and medical systems i.e. the USA? The SE Asia countries also have populations similar or larger than ours.

If we had a similar death rate per million to Germany then c60,000 lives would have been saved. If we had a similar one to Denmark the c90,000 lives would have been saved. Also something like 50% of all UK deaths have happened in the last 4 months, despite having time to learn the lessons from the previous 6 months. All the PH research I have seen suggests that the key determinant in how a country has performed in managing the pandemic and keeping deaths low is how their gov has performed in deciding and implementing good, standard PH practices - lock down quick, hard and longer than you might want, shut borders, implement robust test, track and trace, help folk to isolate and support local community based PH responses to local outbreaks.

Whilst I agree some of the international comparisons are problematic the numbers are the numbers and they tell a story, however it was Eldaniefire who made the comparison suggesting all the countries in Europe were equally as bad in managing the pandemic , I was just suggesting that the figures don't support that statement and if we go there then the UK is bottom or close to bottom of the league on almost all of the stats you look at.

Intuitively you'd have to think that pop density is a factor - but maybe it becomes so more when populations are very mobile and travel around widely - as is the case in places like the UK, but, perhaps, less so in some less wealthy countries.

Many less wealthy countries have workers who have to travel widely to work and will come home at weekends etc. I think it is simply that they are better at implementing PH policies better than we are. Their Govs do tend to be more authoritarian but there is also a history in dealing with possible pandemics like SARS and MERS and implementing PH - we all saw the TV pictures of squads of folk disinfecting streets, buses, trains, public spaces etc in China, South Korea, etc but I never saw anything like that here. Look at all the shit here about something simple like wearing a mask. I suspect our misplaced sense of imperialistic past superiority and smugness stopped us form learning from these countries, to our cost.

[tc27]

Just 150k doses delivered yesterday. I know that the expectation is that there will be a significant ramp up once AZ and Pfizer come back online, but this is a very large drop off.

No AZ was supplied last week and we only got about 1 million PZ doses.

Going to be a little better in terms of supply this week but really getting much better again the first two weeks of March.

[Flockwitt]

So how does this work? BBC headline is that "Social contact limits over from 21 June". Then the line underneath it states "Boris Johnson says coronavirus will be eased in four stages, with changes led by 'data not dates'".

[tabascoboy]

So how does this work? BBC headline is that "Social contact limits over from 21 June". Then the line underneath it states "Boris Johnson says coronavirus will be eased in four stages, with changes led by 'data not dates'".

"The prime minister hopes that step four, from 21 June, would see the end of all legal limits on social contact"

Giving himself wiggle room in case it all goes pear-shaped I guess.

[Saint]

So how does this work? BBC headline is that "Social contact limits over from 21 June". Then the line underneath it states "Boris Johnson says coronavirus will be eased in four stages, with changes led by 'data not dates'".

There's 4 stages, with a minimum of 5 weeks between stages. So if all goes perfectly, then 21st June is the complete unlock. But if there's problems then they'll extend the dates out

[TheNatalShark]

Hoping for some updated guidance from the RFU on return to amateur rugby. Even if just once Vs each oppo in league. Hopefully something like mid April into June.

Not something dumb like a waterfall cup where it will be impossible to gauge teams given likely massive change in players likely to occur.

Slightly disappointed Bojo didn't opt for provisional end of restrictions midnight 22nd and then springboard off that later. Would have made for some good (and even more dour) content.

[ohno]

So how does this work? BBC headline is that "Social contact limits over from 21 June". Then the line underneath it states "Boris Johnson says coronavirus will be eased in four stages, with changes led by 'data not dates'".

There's 4 stages, with a minimum of 5 weeks between stages. So if all goes perfectly, then 21st June is the complete unlock. But if there's problems then they'll extend the dates out

Also interesting to note that despite being a national approach, they left room for regional variations to deal with mutations.

[Ovals]

Intuitively you'd have to think that pop density is a factor - but maybe it becomes so more when populations are very mobile and travel around widely - as is the case in places like the UK, but, perhaps, less so in some less wealthy countries.

Many less wealthy countries have workers who have to travel widely to work and will come home at weekends etc. I think it is simply that they are better at implementing PH policies better than we are. Their Govs do tend to be more authoritarian but there is also a history in dealing with possible pandemics like SARS and MERS and implementing PH - we all saw the TV pictures of squads of folk disinfecting streets, buses, trains, public spaces etc in China, South Korea, etc but I never saw anything like that here. Look at all the shit here about something simple like wearing a mask. I suspect our misplaced sense of imperialistic past superiority and smugness stopped us form learning from these countries, to our cost.

Dpedin, I check and you are right about the pop. density by countries, this is one of the few articles I just saw.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/covid-19 ... 42b6fba9eb
But density mixed with poverty is a big factor for covid spread
https://news.usc.edu/182433/los-angeles ... c-experts/

How about in the UK - haven't the more densely populated areas suffered more than say - Devon, Cornwall and North Scotland.

[Sandstorm]

Once the pubs open and I see some clown in front of me wasting the barmaid’s time by ordering a coffee, I’m gonna start up my kinghit!!

[dpedin]

Cheers Marylandolorian - interesting articles. Pop density does not explain differences in cases nor deaths between countries, it is the PH policies the Gov of those countries decide on and how well they implement them. However within a country there may be a correlation between pop density, poverty and covid19 for the reasons described in the articles. However I also think it has a lot to do with the messaging from the country/region/city leaders, their local implementation of national policies and access to basic PH and healthcare services. I haven't looked at the variation between various US states in any detail but I think it would be fascinating to see how each has performed. I am aware that there is a lot of local manipulation of covid19 data so comparisons may be difficult just now, for example I believe Florida has been less than forthcoming with covid19 data sets? Any good sites you can recommend?

[Ovals]

Cheers Marylandolorian - interesting articles. Pop density does not explain differences in cases nor deaths between countries, it is the PH policies the Gov of those countries decide on and how well they implement them. However within a country there may be a correlation between pop density, poverty and covid19 for the reasons described in the articles. However I also think it has a lot to do with the messaging from the country/region/city leaders, their local implementation of national policies and access to basic PH and healthcare services. I haven't looked at the variation between various US states in any detail but I think it would be fascinating to see how each has performed. I am aware that there is a lot of local manipulation of covid19 data so comparisons may be difficult just now, for example I believe Florida has been less than forthcoming with covid19 data sets? Any good sites you can recommend?

I find it hard to believe that all the countries with low covid fatalities have decided on, and implemented, Public Health poilicies that are better at handling the pandemic than most of the wealthy countries with vastly superior Health infrastructures, but worse rates. I don't think anyone knows what the reason is, other than the lower average age and some poor recording of deaths (In India only 22% of deaths are medically certified). But those things certainly don't explain all the differences (and Japan has an old population and low rates). It seems to have the experts baffled.

This article, from last summer, goes through many of the possibilities. But, without a lot more research, there's no definitive conclusion - but the suggestion is that there is, for some reason, more natural immunity in those populations. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/re ... tory.html

[Rinkals]

Intuitively you'd have to think that pop density is a factor - but maybe it becomes so more when populations are very mobile and travel around widely - as is the case in places like the UK, but, perhaps, less so in some less wealthy countries.

Many less wealthy countries have workers who have to travel widely to work and will come home at weekends etc. I think it is simply that they are better at implementing PH policies better than we are. Their Govs do tend to be more authoritarian but there is also a history in dealing with possible pandemics like SARS and MERS and implementing PH - we all saw the TV pictures of squads of folk disinfecting streets, buses, trains, public spaces etc in China, South Korea, etc but I never saw anything like that here. Look at all the shit here about something simple like wearing a mask. I suspect our misplaced sense of imperialistic past superiority and smugness stopped us form learning from these countries, to our cost.

Dpedin, I check and you are right about the pop. density by countries, this is one of the few articles I just saw.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/covid-19 ... 42b6fba9eb
But density mixed with poverty is a big factor for covid spread
https://news.usc.edu/182433/los-angeles ... c-experts/

Part of the problem for underdeveloped Nations is the prevalence of shanty town populations living cheek-by-jowl with little access to sanitation.

In South Africa, that is compounded by a cavalier attitude to life, but I suppose if you have little to live for, that would be inevitable.

The richer nations may feel that this has very little to do with them, but I would imagine that this acts as an incubation for the virus (and mutations thereof) with the risk that it may find it's way back even after it may appear to have been eradicated.

[TheNatalShark]

Some short but interesting analysis of available data re current and expected vaccine supply and administration continent side. As author notes, going to be a lot of sticks to wield in upcoming elections that national govs may not be able to escape from if the Nordics vaccinate by end of summer.

Odd because it wasn't too long ago Von Der Leyden reaffirmed the 70% target by end of September. Hopefully she and her team are wrong, again.

[dpedin]

Cheers Marylandolorian - interesting articles. Pop density does not explain differences in cases nor deaths between countries, it is the PH policies the Gov of those countries decide on and how well they implement them. However within a country there may be a correlation between pop density, poverty and covid19 for the reasons described in the articles. However I also think it has a lot to do with the messaging from the country/region/city leaders, their local implementation of national policies and access to basic PH and healthcare services. I haven't looked at the variation between various US states in any detail but I think it would be fascinating to see how each has performed. I am aware that there is a lot of local manipulation of covid19 data so comparisons may be difficult just now, for example I believe Florida has been less than forthcoming with covid19 data sets? Any good sites you can recommend?

I find it hard to believe that all the countries with low covid fatalities have decided on, and implemented, Public Health poilicies that are better at handling the pandemic than most of the wealthy countries with vastly superior Health infrastructures, but worse rates. I don't think anyone knows what the reason is, other than the lower average age and some poor recording of deaths (In India only 22% of deaths are medically certified). But those things certainly don't explain all the differences (and Japan has an old population and low rates). It seems to have the experts baffled.

This article, from last summer, goes through many of the possibilities. But, without a lot more research, there's no definitive conclusion - but the suggestion is that there is, for some reason, more natural immunity in those populations. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/re ... tory.html

There is obviously a lot more research required to get to the bottom of this and yes some of the data can be dodgy, no one is disputing that. However for many of the factors the article, which is now 10 moths old and we have learnt a lot since then, raises there are always contradictory evidence. For example obesity is mentioned and the USA and the UK have high levels but then so does NZ. Pop density we have covered. Population size is also used but again you can compare the UK and Germany and we have double the death rate they have. Levels of deprivation, ditto. AS far as I am aware there is no evidence that shows a link between any of these factors and a countries performance with covid19.

I haven't seen anything about research into genetics providing greater/lesser immunity but was there not research in UK to show that there was no genetic reason why BAME individuals had a higher death rate here? It was because they were exposed to the virus more frequently due to the fact they were often in low pay categories and the jobs they did i.e. bus drivers, care assistants, shop workers.The other BAME group with high death rates, scandalously, were doctors and nurses at the beginning of the pandemic and this was due to exposure and the shortage of PPE.

There is some suggestion vitamin D levels, BCG coverage, etc might have an impact but more research is required. I take Bit D supplements daily.

However from most of what I have read the researchers seem to come back to is countries performance is determined by how well Governments of countries have developed and implemented policies that reflect basic Public Health guidance. Some of that is supported by local custom and practice i.e. many eastern countries don't shake hands, mask wearing is the public norm, etc.

On the back of all this I still hold the view that our Gov has performed miserably badly and has directly contributed to our horrendous death rates and our economic disaster. Slow to respond, incredibly bad messaging, poor role modelling, lack of preparation, etc etc. Over 50% of our deaths have occurred in the last 4 months of this pandemic, no feckin lessons learnt!

[Raggs]

Population density isn't granular enough at a countrywide level would be my guess. Prevalence of multi-generational households could be a decent measure, since you then have children to grandparent transmission becoming a larger factor? And it's not necessarily only going to relate directly to the density of the county/country involved.

[dpedin]

Population density isn't granular enough at a countrywide level would be my guess. Prevalence of multi-generational households could be a decent measure, since you then have children to grandparent transmission becoming a larger factor? And it's not necessarily only going to relate directly to the density of the county/country involved.

Might be, haven't seen any research on this but I have heard some suggest this is an explanation for higher levels of spread within parts of the UK with higher levels of deprivation and a BAME communities. However I am not sure the UK stands out for having more multi generational households compared to its european neighbours for example?

[Raggs]

Population density isn't granular enough at a countrywide level would be my guess. Prevalence of multi-generational households could be a decent measure, since you then have children to grandparent transmission becoming a larger factor? And it's not necessarily only going to relate directly to the density of the county/country involved.

Might be, haven't seen any research on this but I have heard some suggest this is an explanation for higher levels of spread within parts of the UK with higher levels of deprivation and a BAME communities. However I am not sure the UK stands out for having more multi generational households compared to its european neighbours for example?

I've no idea. There's also the question of single person, couples, families etc. The whole lot. With evidence suggesting children are bringing into homes, you'd think that households with more than 1 child could have higher incidents etc. I think BAME still tend to have more children than white British, which could easily expose them more often.

All things that I'm sure are being looked into, and may well have been already. Just a question of finding it, and whether the study was solely in single country, or comparative.

[Ovals]

Cheers Marylandolorian - interesting articles. Pop density does not explain differences in cases nor deaths between countries, it is the PH policies the Gov of those countries decide on and how well they implement them. However within a country there may be a correlation between pop density, poverty and covid19 for the reasons described in the articles. However I also think it has a lot to do with the messaging from the country/region/city leaders, their local implementation of national policies and access to basic PH and healthcare services. I haven't looked at the variation between various US states in any detail but I think it would be fascinating to see how each has performed. I am aware that there is a lot of local manipulation of covid19 data so comparisons may be difficult just now, for example I believe Florida has been less than forthcoming with covid19 data sets? Any good sites you can recommend?

I find it hard to believe that all the countries with low covid fatalities have decided on, and implemented, Public Health poilicies that are better at handling the pandemic than most of the wealthy countries with vastly superior Health infrastructures, but worse rates. I don't think anyone knows what the reason is, other than the lower average age and some poor recording of deaths (In India only 22% of deaths are medically certified). But those things certainly don't explain all the differences (and Japan has an old population and low rates). It seems to have the experts baffled.

This article, from last summer, goes through many of the possibilities. But, without a lot more research, there's no definitive conclusion - but the suggestion is that there is, for some reason, more natural immunity in those populations. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/re ... tory.html

There is obviously a lot more research required to get to the bottom of this and yes some of the data can be dodgy, no one is disputing that. However for many of the factors the article, which is now 10 moths old and we have learnt a lot since then, raises there are always contradictory evidence. For example obesity is mentioned and the USA and the UK have high levels but then so does NZ. Pop density we have covered. Population size is also used but again you can compare the UK and Germany and we have double the death rate they have. Levels of deprivation, ditto. AS far as I am aware there is no evidence that shows a link between any of these factors and a countries performance with covid19.

I haven't seen anything about research into genetics providing greater/lesser immunity but was there not research in UK to show that there was no genetic reason why BAME individuals had a higher death rate here? It was because they were exposed to the virus more frequently due to the fact they were often in low pay categories and the jobs they did i.e. bus drivers, care assistants, shop workers.The other BAME group with high death rates, scandalously, were doctors and nurses at the beginning of the pandemic and this was due to exposure and the shortage of PPE.

There is some suggestion vitamin D levels, BCG coverage, etc might have an impact but more research is required. I take Bit D supplements daily.

However from most of what I have read the researchers seem to come back to is countries performance is determined by how well Governments of countries have developed and implemented policies that reflect basic Public Health guidance. Some of that is supported by local custom and practice i.e. many eastern countries don't shake hands, mask wearing is the public norm, etc.

On the back of all this I still hold the view that our Gov has performed miserably badly and has directly contributed to our horrendous death rates and our economic disaster. Slow to respond, incredibly bad messaging, poor role modelling, lack of preparation, etc etc. Over 50% of our deaths have occurred in the last 4 months of this pandemic, no feckin lessons learnt!

Oh, I definitely agree with the last para. I just fail to see how some countries, that appear to have done even less to mitigate transmission and the consequences of illness, have outperformed the UK in terms of death rates, to such an enormous margin. And I can't find any recent studies that really get to the bottom of the issues.

[Sandstorm]

Oh, I definitely agree with the last para. I just fail to see how some countries, that appear to have done even less to mitigate transmission and the consequences of illness, have outperformed the UK in terms of death rates, to such an enormous margin. And I can't find any recent studies that really get to the bottom of the issues.

Let me help you:

[Ovals]

Oh, I definitely agree with the last para. I just fail to see how some countries, that appear to have done even less to mitigate transmission and the consequences of illness, have outperformed the UK in terms of death rates, to such an enormous margin. And I can't find any recent studies that really get to the bottom of the issues.

Let me help you:

[Sandstorm]

Oh, I definitely agree with the last para. I just fail to see how some countries, that appear to have done even less to mitigate transmission and the consequences of illness, have outperformed the UK in terms of death rates, to such an enormous margin. And I can't find any recent studies that really get to the bottom of the issues.

Let me help you:

Is that Gatwick South Terminal Arrivals?

[FalseBayFC]

Oh, I definitely agree with the last para. I just fail to see how some countries, that appear to have done even less to mitigate transmission and the consequences of illness, have outperformed the UK in terms of death rates, to such an enormous margin. And I can't find any recent studies that really get to the bottom of the issues.

Let me help you:

These countries have low testing rates, poor death reporting protocols and zero post mortem testing. You cannot rely on data from countries with health systems like Bangladesh or South Africa.

[Dinsdale Piranha]

Let me help you:

Is that Gatwick South Terminal Arrivals?

There are people there with their luggage.

So No.

[Saint]

[Sandstorm]

[Ovals]

Is that Gatwick South Terminal Arrivals?

There are people there with their luggage.

So No.

Very Good

[Ovals]

Let me help you:

These countries have low testing rates, poor death reporting protocols and zero post mortem testing. You cannot rely on data from countries with health systems like Bangladesh or South Africa.

Nonetheless - it is still fairly evident that India, for example, has a far lower death rate than the UK. I think someone would have noticed if they'd had >1 million covid deaths - which is what it would be at our levels

[Raggs]

1 million is less than 0.1% of India's population. Considering around 2/3rds live in poverty, would it be that shocking to find out that a lot of deaths simply aren't recorded properly? People have been noticing that the numbers don't really add up that well.

[Ovals]

1 million is less than 0.1% of India's population. Considering around 2/3rds live in poverty, would it be that shocking to find out that a lot of deaths simply aren't recorded properly? People have been noticing that the numbers don't really add up that well.

Except that the vast majority of Covid deaths would have come in short spaces of time, so would be far more noticeable. I believe thay have a fairly good idea of the number of deaths in India but that many just aren't accompanied by a medical cert - but 22% are. At the moment, India are recording about 7% of the Covid death rate of the UK - that's too big a difference to be explained by poor records - Especially given the spotlight on Covid. And that's just India - there's many more countries with substantially lower death rates.

[FalseBayFC]

1 million is less than 0.1% of India's population. Considering around 2/3rds live in poverty, would it be that shocking to find out that a lot of deaths simply aren't recorded properly? People have been noticing that the numbers don't really add up that well.

Except that the vast majority of Covid deaths would have come in short spaces of time, so would be far more noticeable. I believe thay have a fairly good idea of the number of deaths in India but that many just aren't accompanied by a medical cert - but 22% are. At the moment, India are recording about 7% of the Covid death rate of the UK - that's too big a difference to be explained by poor records - Especially given the spotlight on Covid. And that's just India - there's many more countries with substantially lower death rates.

Well it is noticable in South Africa. We have about 140000 excess deaths with only 49000 accounted for by Covid. In South Africa a rural death can and is often recorded by a village elder or policeman. No medical professional is required.

[Raggs]

1 million is less than 0.1% of India's population. Considering around 2/3rds live in poverty, would it be that shocking to find out that a lot of deaths simply aren't recorded properly? People have been noticing that the numbers don't really add up that well.

Except that the vast majority of Covid deaths would have come in short spaces of time, so would be far more noticeable. I believe thay have a fairly good idea of the number of deaths in India but that many just aren't accompanied by a medical cert - but 22% are. At the moment, India are recording about 7% of the Covid death rate of the UK - that's too big a difference to be explained by poor records - Especially given the spotlight on Covid. And that's just India - there's many more countries with substantially lower death rates.

I doubt they've missed that many in truth, but I really suspect there's a lot more out there that aren't seen as covid. And yes, if you read articles, you can get a sense of just how many don't reach the governmental levels.

Another strong factor is probably just their age range. Under 6% are over 65, in the UK it's closer to 18%.

[Biffer]

1 million is less than 0.1% of India's population. Considering around 2/3rds live in poverty, would it be that shocking to find out that a lot of deaths simply aren't recorded properly? People have been noticing that the numbers don't really add up that well.

Yeah, there's probably at least 15 million deaths a year in India. Would a million extra really be noticed immediately? Particularly if they're amongst the poorest where they might not be in hospital anyway?

[FalseBayFC]

Also very high rates of obesity and other first world lifestyle diseases mean the USA and Europe have a lot of comorbidity out there.

[TheNatalShark]

Some short but interesting analysis of available data re current and expected vaccine supply and administration continent side. As author notes, going to be a lot of sticks to wield in upcoming elections that national govs may not be able to escape from if the Nordics vaccinate by end of summer.

Odd because it wasn't too long ago Von Der Leyden reaffirmed the 70% target by end of September. Hopefully she and her team are wrong, again.

Looks like AZ believes it will also substantially miss second quarter targets to EU by more than half again, so above plans go up in smoke (again)

https://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSKBN2AN1ZY