NPR

Note KGB is Belarusian security services. They kept the old name.

Some criticism of Ryanair's statement not making any mention of the kidnapping but probably better that they hold their peace for the time being.

Looks like the pilots did their best to get the hell out of dodge.

Russian aviation expert Vadim Lukashevich noted that the flight course of FR4978 over Belarus on 23 May became unusual even before making U-turn: based on FlightRadar raw data he claimed that the plane did not start to descend over Belarus, though this is usually done in preparation for landing in Vilnius. He assumed that the unusual route can indicate that the plane's pilots tried to keep the original direction to get into Lithuanian airspace as soon as possible, but were forced to divert after the Belarusian jet fighter's interference.

Imagine being on that flight...

Yes I don't understand the criticism of Ryanair's statement. Not exactly beyond the realms of possibility that their staff were threatened with harm if a press release mentioned it.

I'm certainly not going on a plane over Russia/Iran/Armenia any time soon.

I read an American academic on twitter saying that Moscow would have signed off on this. Does it benefit Putin?

Hugo wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 6:31 am I read an American academic on twitter saying that Moscow would have signed off on this. Does it benefit Putin?

One of his few allies ...

Any idea how many people were on the flight?
They'll have interesting stories to tell.

Uncle fester wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 6:45 am Any idea how many people were on the flight?
They'll have interesting stories to tell.

When they are sure to not ever fly over Belarus again.

Fairly blatant state terrorism, this.

Uncle fester wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 6:45 am Any idea how many people were on the flight?
They'll have interesting stories to tell.

171 passengers on the Athens departure


Lukashenko strikes me as dumb enough to have done this without consulting Russia, given their reaction to his botched election rigging. I imagine they will be happy enough as it will push Belarus further into their orbit.

Orban will undoubtedly try and scuttle any organised response at the Euro level. If he does national leaders really do need to indicate if there is a straw heavy enough to break their back. Particularly as it allows such an easy diversion valve for things like NS2.

Forgetting Orban for a minute, what can the EU do in response?

Uncle fester wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 11:53 am Forgetting Orban for a minute, what can the EU do in response?

The measures being discussed by the EU include a ban on overflights of Belarus, a ban on entry to European airports by national carrier Belavia and a suspension of ground transport links to Belarus. Financial sanctions could also be considered.

It also looks that international air flights will avoid going through Belarus air space as it is now considered unsafe.

An anonymous sauce tells me the UK will ban cheese exports to Belarus.

tabascoboy wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 12:04 pm An anonymous sauce tells me the UK will ban cheese exports to Belarus.

Liz Truss is going to be raging. That was one of her big trade victories.

Lobby wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 12:02 pm

Uncle fester wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 11:53 am Forgetting Orban for a minute, what can the EU do in response?

The measures being discussed by the EU include a ban on overflights of Belarus, a ban on entry to European airports by national carrier Belavia and a suspension of ground transport links to Belarus. Financial sanctions could also be considered.

It also looks that international air flights will avoid going through Belarus air space as it is now considered unsafe.

Beyond the air travel sanctions there is plenty of efforts the EU could organise Vs the individual member state action, and really target things that make the top brass feel alienated. Whether it be putting pressure on non-EU states to impose sanctions, particularly on banking, barring Belarusian orgs (particularly hockey + football) from partaking in events in European territory and above all actions on Russia that make Belarus a liability.

It is as it ever was, part tool to propagate influence of state functions.

At least this time Orban wasn't able to ring out the initial actions, may well be keeping powder dry waiting for dust to settle.

Maybe the UK could quit being the money laundering capital of the world. Sanctions won't hurt them if the kleptocracy can continue buying flats in London and sending their kids to public schools in the UK.

robmatic wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 7:10 am Fairly blatant state terrorism, this.

Which no-one will do anything about other than issue a few "strongly worded statements of condemnation".

FalseBayFC wrote: Wed May 26, 2021 4:53 am Maybe the UK could quit being the money laundering capital of the world. Sanctions won't hurt them if the kleptocracy can continue buying flats in London and sending their kids to public schools in the UK.

Indeed/

Not the main story, but the Greek bloke who decided to get off in Minsk because he was taking a connecting flight there anyway is hilarious

Hugo wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 6:31 am I read an American academic on twitter saying that Moscow would have signed off on this. Does it benefit Putin?

Isn't the Western theory that Putin wants Lukashenka as weak as possible, so that he is forced into a Union?

Yet this move obviously strengthens Lukashenka.

Waiting to hear the rationalisation from Western 'commentators' for this one.

Torquemada 1420 wrote: Wed May 26, 2021 7:24 am

robmatic wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 7:10 am Fairly blatant state terrorism, this.

Which no-one will do anything about other than issue a few "strongly worded statements of condemnation".

Ryan Air, innit. A less unpopular airline on the other hand.....

Very similar sort of situation to Evo Morales' plane being forced down in Vienna in 2013 because the US/EU wanted to apprehend Snowden, who they thought was on the flight.

RichieRich89 wrote: Wed May 26, 2021 1:04 pm Very similar sort of situation to Evo Morales' plane being forced down in Vienna in 2013 because the US/EU wanted to apprehend Snowden, who they thought was on the flight.

Actually different : countries forbade access to their airspace (perfectly legal).

laurent wrote: Wed May 26, 2021 1:47 pm

RichieRich89 wrote: Wed May 26, 2021 1:04 pm Very similar sort of situation to Evo Morales' plane being forced down in Vienna in 2013 because the US/EU wanted to apprehend Snowden, who they thought was on the flight.

Actually different : countries forbade access to their airspace (perfectly legal).

Just a little different to being forced to land by the proximity of a warplane...

Essentially, they are almost identical. Morales's plane was forced to land in Vienna because there wasn't sufficient fuel for an alternate route once several European countries had closed their air space. It was an appalling slight on the leader of a sovereign country.

RichieRich89 wrote: Wed May 26, 2021 2:40 pm Essentially, they are almost identical. Morales's plane was forced to land in Vienna because there wasn't sufficient fuel for an alternate route once several European countries had closed their air space. It was an appalling slight on the leader of a sovereign country.

That's quite a long way from identical.

The Belorussian methods are more obviously brutish, but the result is the same. A plane forced to land so a search can be made for a wanted man.

Both despicable.

RichieRich89 wrote: Wed May 26, 2021 2:54 pm The Belorussian methods are more obviously brutish, but the result is the same. A plane forced to land so a search can be made for a wanted man.

Both despicable.

Refusing entry to your own airspace = fine, if extraordinary. Essentially hijacking a plane at gunpoint (cannon/missile-point) = very different. It's very disingenuous to claim these are essentially identical actions.

In both instances a plane was forced to land so a wanted man could be apprehended. The rest is just details, really.

If the Beyelorussians had the might of the US/EU, and it was geographically possible, I'm sure they would have used the closing air space method pioneered in 2013.

RichieRich89 wrote: Wed May 26, 2021 3:09 pm In both instances a plane was forced to land so a wanted man could be apprehended. The rest is just details, really.

If the Beyelorussians had the might of the US/EU, and it was geographically possible, I'm sure they would have used the closing air space method pioneered in 2013.

Fucking lol

using that logic an armed kidnapping and a road closure are the same thing if the person ends up in the same place at the end

Road closure? It's not as if Morales's plane could just pull over and wait for the airspace to open again. I guess they had three options:

- come up with a new route and run out of fuel and crash or ditch somewhere before reaching the Canary Islands
- continue into these EU countries' air spaces, possibly resulting in fighter jets being scrambled and being forced to land anyway
- re-route to Vienna, as the Americans wanted them to

Great options. Let's all applaud how civilised the West is.

Let's pretend forcing a plane to land in your territory under threat of being shot from the sky is the same thing as not allowing a plane to enter your airspace to begin with, that's cool and not at all disingenuous

You really can't see the ramifications of the air space closure? Morales's plane was forced to land just as much as the Ryanair one was. Perhaps more so. I highly doubt the MiG 29 would actually have shot down the Ryanair plane if the pilots had refused to comply.

Look, the Belarussians received a credible threat. Ignore an email with the subject 'allahu akbar' at your peril:

RichieRich89 wrote: Wed May 26, 2021 4:12 pm You really can't see the ramifications of the air space closure? Morales's plane was forced to land just as much as the Ryanair one was. Perhaps more so. I highly doubt the MiG 29 would actually have shot down the Ryanair plane if the pilots had refused to comply.

Of course you doubt it.

Lemoentjie wrote: Thu May 27, 2021 7:34 am Look, the Belarussians received a credible threat. Ignore an email with the subject 'allahu akbar' at your peril:

Seems legit, sending a warning of a bomb explosion over the capital of another nation to a non-EU nation complaining about EU policy and on a flight where there just so happened to be a "person of interest" to the Belarus Government on board. Totes genuine, no doubt.

RichieRich89 wrote: Wed May 26, 2021 3:52 pm Road closure? It's not as if Morales's plane could just pull over and wait for the airspace to open again. I guess they had three options:

- come up with a new route and run out of fuel and crash or ditch somewhere before reaching the Canary Islands
- continue into these EU countries' air spaces, possibly resulting in fighter jets being scrambled and being forced to land anyway
- re-route to Vienna, as the Americans wanted them to

Great options. Let's all applaud how civilised the West is.

You guys don't have any notion how obvious you are. It's hilarious.

Lemoentjie wrote: Wed May 26, 2021 9:13 am

Hugo wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 6:31 am I read an American academic on twitter saying that Moscow would have signed off on this. Does it benefit Putin?

Isn't the Western theory that Putin wants Lukashenka as weak as possible, so that he is forced into a Union?

Yet this move obviously strengthens Lukashenka.

Waiting to hear the rationalisation from Western 'commentators' for this one.

Isolating him further from the rest of the world, driving him towards Mother Russia, who in turn have now refused landing at Moscow to at least two flights from the EU - thus showing their support for Belarus and drawing him in further

With allies like Belarus, who needs friends.

Lemoentjie wrote: Thu May 27, 2021 7:34 am Look, the Belarussians received a credible threat. Ignore an email with the subject 'allahu akbar' at your peril:

You're a credulous moron.

Hellraiser wrote: Thu May 27, 2021 9:38 pm

Lemoentjie wrote: Thu May 27, 2021 7:34 am Look, the Belarussians received a credible threat. Ignore an email with the subject 'allahu akbar' at your peril:

You're a credulous moron.

I thought Poms/Irish were meant to have good humour? It's a joke