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Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:39 am
by lilyw
I posted something about this a few years ago - there have been suggestions that far from the runaway growth commonly projected the world's population may peak during the next 50 years and then start to decline. I actually don't believe the Nigerian projections here; I think that hey are over-stated.
World population in 2100 could be 2 billion below UN forecasts, study suggests
Earth will be home to 8.8 billion people in 2100, 2 billion fewer than current UN projections, according to a major study published on Wednesday that foresees changes shaped by declining fertility rates and ageing populations.
By the century’s end, 183 of 195 countries – barring an influx of immigrants – will have fallen below the replacement threshold needed to maintain population levels, an international team of researchers reported in the Lancet.
More than 20 countries – including Japan, Spain, Italy, Thailand, Portugal, South Korea and Poland – will see their numbers diminish by at least half.
China’s will fall nearly that much, from 1.4 billion people today to 730 million in 80 years.
Sub-Saharan Africa, meanwhile, will triple in size to some 3 billion people, with Nigeria alone expanding to almost 800 million in 2100, second only to India’s 1.1 billion.
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:15 am
by Caley_Red
That last paragraph should cause some concern: half the world's people living in its most dysfunctional region.
Given all post-WW2 economic transitions (that I've read about) were preceded by a fall in the fertility rate, this would suggest that most of Africa is going to be (relatively) as poor in 2100 as it is now. Difficult to see how they will close the gap given the low hanging fruit of low-level manufacturing is a dwindling industry and won't provide the same leg up to lower middle income that it did in the 20th century. Given underlying changes in the composition of the global economy, the future will reward technical knowledge relatively more than it has done in the past which means that countries with poor secondary and tertiary education are going to suffer. That cohort includes pretty much all African countries.
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:23 am
by Sandstorm
lilyw wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:39 am
Nigeria alone expanding to almost 800 million in 2100
[/quote]
No Inbox on the planet will be safe.
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:32 am
by Mr Bungle
Sandstorm wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:23 am
lilyw wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:39 am
Nigeria alone expanding to almost 800 million in 2100
No Inbox on the planet will be safe.
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:35 pm
by lilyw
I do idly wonder whether these experts are any less reliable (18.5% error) than the ones who can with precision forecast the rise in Global Temperature over the same time period?
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:21 pm
by Lemoentjie
These threads always bring a bit of anti-African prejudice out, not nice to see. Africa is much less densely populated than Europe or China or India.
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:52 pm
by sockwithaticket
Lemoentjie wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:21 pm
These threads always bring a bit of anti-African prejudice out, not nice to see.
Africa is much less densely populated than Europe or China or India.
That's because so much of the land is uninhabitable, a situation that's only going to get worse as time goes on if climate change continues as it has.
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:09 pm
by lilyw
Lemoentjie wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:21 pm
These threads always bring a bit of
anti-African prejudice out, not nice to see. Africa is much less densely populated than Europe or China or India.
Where?
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:11 pm
by Ali Cadoo
lilyw wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:09 pm
Lemoentjie wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:21 pm
These threads always bring a bit of
anti-African prejudice out, not nice to see. Africa is much less densely populated than Europe or China or India.
Where?
Accusations of laziness: “there’s nothing that a hundred men or more could ever do”.
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:20 pm
by Sandstorm
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:26 pm
by New guy
Governments have spent years essentially encouraging people not to have kids and now the chickens are coming home to roost. The BBC had an article this morning which suggested 800 million people would be aged over 80 by the year 2100 which is staggering. The population of Japan will fall to 70 million and Italy to 20 million.
Retirement will be a thing of the past. I barely pay into my pension because I dont believe I'll ever stop working.
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:14 pm
by A6D6E6
New guy wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:26 pm
Governments have spent years essentially encouraging people not to have kids and now the chickens are coming home to roost. The BBC had an article this morning which suggested 800 million people would be aged over 80 by the year 2100 which is staggering. The population of Japan will fall to 70 million and Italy to 20 million.
Retirement will be a thing of the past.
I barely pay into my pension because I dont believe I'll ever stop working.
Well that doesn't sound much like a self fulfilling prophesy.
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:18 pm
by lilyw
New guy wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:26 pm
Governments have spent years essentially encouraging people not to have kids and now the chickens are coming home to roost. The BBC had an article this morning which suggested 800 million people would be aged over 80 by the year 2100 which is staggering. The population of Japan will fall to 70 million and Italy to 20 million.
Retirement will be a thing of the past. I barely pay into my pension because I dont believe I'll ever stop working.
That's not really true in most countries. The move to smaller families is largely driven by social norms and lifestyle expectation rather than Government encouragement. France even preferentially supports larger families.
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:26 pm
by Mr Bungle
A6D6E6 wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:14 pm
New guy wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:26 pm
Governments have spent years essentially encouraging people not to have kids and now the chickens are coming home to roost. The BBC had an article this morning which suggested 800 million people would be aged over 80 by the year 2100 which is staggering. The population of Japan will fall to 70 million and Italy to 20 million.
Retirement will be a thing of the past.
I barely pay into my pension because I dont believe I'll ever stop working.
Well that doesn't sound much like a self fulfilling prophesy.
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:38 pm
by Gav
The Lancet hasn’t exactly been covering itself in glory with the quality of its papers recently.
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:43 pm
by Hugo
Lemoentjie wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:21 pm
These threads always bring a bit of anti-African prejudice out, not nice to see.
More accurately these topics always bring about accusations of prejudice, bigotry, racism.
World population projections can be added to the pile of subjects that it is hard to meaningfully discuss because people will make spurious accusations designed to shut down conversation.
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:32 am
by Caley_Red
Hugo wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:43 pm
Lemoentjie wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:21 pm
These threads always bring a bit of anti-African prejudice out, not nice to see.
More accurately these topics always bring about accusations of prejudice, bigotry, racism.
World population projections can be added to the pile of subjects that it is hard to meaningfully discuss because people will make spurious accusations designed to shut down conversation.
Yeah, not sure if that top comment was a dig at my post which is entirely about the practical difficulties that will be exacerbated in Africa should this come to pass.
Let me be clear on my point: having nearly half the world's population residing in the poorest and most dysfunctional continent on Earth will present real and practical challenges for the rest of the world as well as Africa itself, the sooner something is done by policymakers to address these issues, the better.
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:47 am
by Caley_Red
lilyw wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:18 pm
New guy wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:26 pm
Governments have spent years essentially encouraging people not to have kids and now the chickens are coming home to roost. The BBC had an article this morning which suggested 800 million people would be aged over 80 by the year 2100 which is staggering. The population of Japan will fall to 70 million and Italy to 20 million.
Retirement will be a thing of the past. I barely pay into my pension because I dont believe I'll ever stop working.
That's not really true in most countries. The move to smaller families is largely driven by social norms and lifestyle expectation rather than Government encouragement. France even preferentially supports larger families.
The most overlooked aspect of this in the West is asset price inflation: affordability of housing and median ages for children are moving in opposite directions and are bumping up against the natural age cap of female fertility and the inflation-induced budget constraint.
There was a very interesting cross-country survey in 2018 (or some time around then) which determined that in the US, UK and some other western countries, there is an increasing gap between the number of children people want and the number they have and there is good evidence that the financial crisis and the asset bubbles that have arisen after it have permanently damaged fertility. A summary from the IFS on the US data is here:
https://ifstudies.org/blog/how-many-kids-do-women-want
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:05 am
by stemoc
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:40 am
by Kiap
^ Erm ... China's population will almost halve, Africa's will grow massively, according to the report...
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:50 am
by Kiap
Something else interesting is it forecasts Australia will overtake Canada in GDP by 2100 ...
Figure 9 Ranking the top 25 economies by total GDP in 2017 and the reference scenario in 2030, 2050, and 2100
I call shenanigans.
But either way, we'll all be dead.
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:27 am
by assfly
sockwithaticket wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:52 pm
That's because so much of the land is uninhabitable, a situation that's only going to get worse as time goes on if climate change continues as it has.
What do you mean by uninhabitable?
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:04 am
by Sandstorm
assfly wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:27 am
sockwithaticket wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:52 pm
That's because so much of the land is uninhabitable, a situation that's only going to get worse as time goes on if climate change continues as it has.
What do you mean by uninhabitable?
He means Durban.
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:18 pm
by sockwithaticket
assfly wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:27 am
sockwithaticket wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:52 pm
That's because so much of the land is uninhabitable, a situation that's only going to get worse as time goes on if climate change continues as it has.
What do you mean by uninhabitable?
Unable to support human existence. 25% of it is already desert (not that that's the only thing that renders land unsuitable for or incapable of supporting a human population, but it's a starting point) and increasing, with the rate of increase set to get worse unless we bring climate change under control.
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:57 pm
by assfly
sockwithaticket wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:18 pm
Unable to support human existence. 25% of it is already desert (not that that's the only thing that renders land unsuitable for or incapable of supporting a human population, but it's a starting point) and increasing, with the rate of increase set to get worse unless we bring climate change under control.
The report refers to sub-Saharan Africa, so I don't think your 25% is correct.
I personally have a different view for the continent. As the African middle class grows, population growth will slow.
Many countries are incredibly fertile, and a country like Tanzania (if run properly) could feed a large portion of the world.
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:43 am
by Sandstorm
assfly wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:57 pm
a country like Tanzania (if run properly)
oooohhh...so close.
Re: Future population estimates 2bn too high
Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:31 pm
by eldanielfire
A6D6E6 wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:14 pm
New guy wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:26 pm
Governments have spent years essentially encouraging people not to have kids and now the chickens are coming home to roost. The BBC had an article this morning which suggested 800 million people would be aged over 80 by the year 2100 which is staggering. The population of Japan will fall to 70 million and Italy to 20 million.
Retirement will be a thing of the past.
I barely pay into my pension because I dont believe I'll ever stop working.
Well that doesn't sound much like a self fulfilling prophesy.
This is why we need a new model fo economics. Constant population growth isn't sustainable for resources, space etc. We need to start planning for population reduction, We have a rich baby boomer generation who will be dying off soon. And their finances should return to younger and smaller generations.
