NPR

Big day here in Turkey with the presidential and parliamentary elections taking place. Despite a very restrictive political environment, rampant censorship and pro-government propaganda in the media and some fairly blunt authoritarianism, the opposition do have a very real chance of doing something at the ballot box. It's my first time voting in Turkey and I've honestly never been as anxious about an election.

I did get a text message from Tayyip himself this morning reminding me to vote for him so that the country isn't surrendered to terrorists and perverts but I didn't find it terribly persuasive.

The path that Turkey has taken under erdogan the past 10 years is worrying. Regressing,100 years after Mustafa Kemal.
Who is the opposition?

boere wors wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 9:51 am The path that Turkey has taken under erdogan the past 10 years is worrying. Regressing,100 years after Mustafa Kemal.
Who is the opposition?

The opposing presidential candidate is Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who is basically an old school secular social democrat. There are lots and varied parties in the opposition, the two main ones are CHP (secular social democrats) and IYI (secular nationalists) together with some small Islamist parties and the leftist Kurds.

According to the polls, Kilicdaroglu is comfortably in the lead over Erdogan but the big question is whether he gets over 50% and can avoid a second round of voting.

robmatic wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 1:23 pm

boere wors wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 9:51 am The path that Turkey has taken under erdogan the past 10 years is worrying. Regressing,100 years after Mustafa Kemal.
Who is the opposition?

The opposing presidential candidate is Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who is basically an old school secular social democrat. There are lots and varied parties in the opposition, the two main ones are CHP (secular social democrats) and IYI (secular nationalists) together with some small Islamist parties and the leftist Kurds.

According to the polls, Kilicdaroglu is comfortably in the lead over Erdogan but the big question is whether he gets over 50% and can avoid a second round of voting.

and falling out of a window in the meantime.

So Kemal Kilicdaroglu is the good guy??

Ymx wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 2:48 pm So Kemal Kilicdaroglu is the good guy??

He's the one who won't put you in jail if you say he's a bad President.

Erdogan well ahead early in the count, guess it depends if his advantage is in a particular area. BTW turnout is a jaw-dropping 93%+

Do not be demoralized by the first results, about 40 million people live in İstanbul, Ankara and İzmir. And the first results always come from smaller places which tend to support Erdoğan. Wait until around 8:30 then you get some sense of the election.

My Turkish friend says there is no way Erdogan will lose that or any other election.
He is a Cult. His face adorns everywhere in Turkey
It's a sham election according to her

tabascoboy wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 3:50 pm Erdogan well ahead early in the count, guess it depends if his advantage is in a particular area. BTW turnout is a jaw-dropping 93%+

Do not be demoralized by the first results, about 40 million people live in İstanbul, Ankara and İzmir. And the first results always come from smaller places which tend to support Erdoğan. Wait until around 8:30 then you get some sense of the election.

I had to queue for an hour to vote.

The first ballot boxes that are counted are usually the smaller ones in villages and rural areas that always go for Erdogan. There does appear to be a decrease in his vote so far.

Are the elections trustworthy?

Ymx wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 4:05 pm Are the elections trustworthy?

The actual casting and counting of ballots is pretty solid - there's loads of observers at each box and each party collects and collates the votes independently to keep the electoral authority honest.

There is definitely potential for shenanigans about actually reporting the result though because the news agencies are government controlled. In the last Istanbul mayoral election, they basically stopped reporting the results when they realised that the opposition were going to win.

After the next 3% of votes were counted Erdo has lost 2%.

Now with ~ 25% of votes counted
Erdogan 53.1%
Kilicdaroglu 40.1%

Apparently people still voting for Ince despite his withdrawal, I guess they didn''t have time to remove his name from the ballot papers

@38.3% count ( Presidential )

Erdogan 52.9%
Kilicdaroglu 41.2%


Erdogan's share is slipping but not all that quickly, wiser heads seem to think this will not be decided on the first round

robmatic wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 1:23 pm

boere wors wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 9:51 am The path that Turkey has taken under erdogan the past 10 years is worrying. Regressing,100 years after Mustafa Kemal.
Who is the opposition?

The opposing presidential candidate is Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who is basically an old school secular social democrat. There are lots and varied parties in the opposition, the two main ones are CHP (secular social democrats) and IYI (secular nationalists) together with some small Islamist parties and the leftist Kurds.

According to the polls, Kilicdaroglu is comfortably in the lead over Erdogan but the big question is whether he gets over 50% and can avoid a second round of voting.

Cheers, that sounds good, secular...
Lets hope, But doesnt look to good at the moment.

There's another source that gives a completely different picture. Seen allegations that one agency wants to show Erdogan easily ahead as long as possible so that if the final official results looks different they can cry foul.

The other agency suggests it's very close - but it doesn't show the percentage of the count so far

Erdogan 47.3%
Kilicdaroglu 47.0%


So that's all clear then

robmatic wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 4:14 pm

Ymx wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 4:05 pm Are the elections trustworthy?

The actual casting and counting of ballots is pretty solid - there's loads of observers at each box and each party collects and collates the votes independently to keep the electoral authority honest.

There is definitely potential for shenanigans about actually reporting the result though because the news agencies are government controlled. In the last Istanbul mayoral election, they basically stopped reporting the results when they realised that the opposition were going to win.

That's really not what is happening on the groound tbh according to my sauces, it will be seen as being OK but everyone know what is going on and it's corrupt and the machinery behind thenscenes is tilted in one way.
It stinks to high heaven

C69 wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 7:28 pm

robmatic wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 4:14 pm

Ymx wrote: Sun May 14, 2023 4:05 pm Are the elections trustworthy?

The actual casting and counting of ballots is pretty solid - there's loads of observers at each box and each party collects and collates the votes independently to keep the electoral authority honest.

There is definitely potential for shenanigans about actually reporting the result though because the news agencies are government controlled. In the last Istanbul mayoral election, they basically stopped reporting the results when they realised that the opposition were going to win.

That's really not what is happening on the groound tbh according to my sauces, it will be seen as being OK but everyone know what is going on and it's corrupt and the machinery behind thenscenes is tilted in one way.
It stinks to high heaven

I'm pretty sure I'm closer to sources on the ground, to be honest. There are huge problems with democracy in Turkey but not so much with the actual voting process.

So, it will go to a second round but Erdogan and the hard right have a clear upper hand. It's a gloomy day for the secular opposition who should probably gave gone with a more charismatic candidate (and they did have options).

robmatic wrote: Mon May 15, 2023 8:32 am So, it will go to a second round but Erdogan and the hard right have a clear upper hand. It's a gloomy day for the secular opposition who should probably gave gone with a more charismatic candidate (and they did have options).

Perhaps those who didn’t vote Erdogan will now vote for Kemal

Plus, perhaps the vote turnout will be better this round.

Polls still putting Erdogan 3 - 5% points ahead

And with early results, Erdogan leading in fact by 8 - 9 % so far

Looks like he's home and dry.

Uncle fester wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 7:53 pm Looks like he's home and dry.

Seems confirmed now

YSK Chairman Ahmet Yener officially announced the election results, stating that Erdogan was elected as the new president with 52.14% of the votes.

"Even if all of the results that have not been entered into the system yet go to a presidential candidate, the results will not change."

Bad night for secular Turkey and those who want a West facing Turkey.
Putin is happy at least

You can't help those that don't want to be helped

TheNatalShark wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 8:38 pm You can't help those that don't want to be helped

I’ll remember this after the next election the ANC win.

Sandstorm wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 8:53 pm

TheNatalShark wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 8:38 pm You can't help those that don't want to be helped

I’ll remember this after the next election the ANC win.

It's as simple as that.

By and large we get what we vote for in the democratic world.

EnergiseR2 wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 8:37 pm All the people in Oreland who say we should give Sinn Fein a chance etc should realise getting rid of the stupid populist nationalist cunts will be nigh on impossible

The Shinners are the biggest party across the Island.
Democracy says their will is the way forward.
Soon



Turkey I weep for you.

C69 wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 8:06 pm Bad night for secular Turkey and those who want a West facing Turkey.
Putin is happy at least

I'm expecting an unstable few years for Turkey. Erdogan has a pretty solid religious/nationalist base but he's also got 48% of the population who profoundly dislike him and the economy has been running on fumes until the election. We are probably going to have some form of currency crisis this year and a recession when the cheap credit taps are turned off. Syrians and other immigrants will probably also have a rough time.

C69 wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 10:04 pm

EnergiseR2 wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 8:37 pm All the people in Oreland who say we should give Sinn Fein a chance etc should realise getting rid of the stupid populist nationalist cunts will be nigh on impossible

The Shinners are the biggest party across the Island.
Democracy says their will is the way forward.
Soon



Turkey I weep for you.

Yes, but there is Tayyip Erdogan isn't often pushed this close. Now isn't the time to fracture in the fight against a populist/nationalist Turkey, now's the time to double down on progressing a more secular/progressive Turkey (also a saner Turkey that doesn't so delight in impoverishing people)

EnergiseR2 wrote: Mon May 29, 2023 9:46 am

C69 wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 10:04 pm

EnergiseR2 wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 8:37 pm All the people in Oreland who say we should give Sinn Fein a chance etc should realise getting rid of the stupid populist nationalist cunts will be nigh on impossible

The Shinners are the biggest party across the Island.
Democracy says their will is the way forward.
Soon



Turkey I weep for you.

You be weeping a little closer to home when those cunts get power

So what exactly do the Shinners plan for the Island?

EnergiseR2 wrote: Mon May 29, 2023 10:10 am

C69 wrote: Mon May 29, 2023 10:03 am

EnergiseR2 wrote: Mon May 29, 2023 9:46 am

You be weeping a little closer to home when those cunts get power

So what exactly do the Shinners plan for the Island?

They have no coherent plan beyond give free shit away. They have an inherent tension and weakness n their support that the government parties have utterly failed to tackle. About one third of their support are hyper nationalist racist types, a third are hippy social justice warrior types and a third want free shit. The former two cannot be reconciled

Tbh atm free shit would sound good, in the UK free shit now costs twice as much as it did last year when it wasn't even free.
Joking apart could they be the biggest Party on both sides of the border? if so that would be a bit spicy.

C69 wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 8:06 pm Bad night for secular Turkey and those who want a West facing Turkey.
Putin is happy at least

Don't know if Putin will be that happy with him staying. He's an opportunist who will look to make hay from Russia's weakness.

EnergiseR2 wrote: Mon May 29, 2023 3:07 pm No surprise they dominate the Google ads space.

Do you have an example of one of their ads? They don't seem to have many ads according to Google's transparency report:
https://adstransparency.google.com/adve ... =political

Sad news

EnergiseR2 wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 5:41 pm

freddie wrote: Mon May 29, 2023 7:30 pm

EnergiseR2 wrote: Mon May 29, 2023 3:07 pm No surprise they dominate the Google ads space.

Do you have an example of one of their ads? They don't seem to have many ads according to Google's transparency report:
https://adstransparency.google.com/adve ... =political

Loads of dodgy ads eminate from the Shinners and Shinner supporters. You know them immediately as they like to trade on Leo Varadkar being a gay. Sinn Fein are murky as fuck. About as murky as you would expect a party run by an army council

I'm curious too. What ads?

EnergiseR2 wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 8:29 pm I'll tell you offline like lovers

Tell us now ER.
If a United Ireland comes about then...

EnergiseR2 wrote: Tue May 30, 2023 5:41 pm

freddie wrote: Mon May 29, 2023 7:30 pm

EnergiseR2 wrote: Mon May 29, 2023 3:07 pm No surprise they dominate the Google ads space.

Do you have an example of one of their ads? They don't seem to have many ads according to Google's transparency report:
https://adstransparency.google.com/adve ... =political

Loads of dodgy ads eminate from the Shinners and Shinner supporters. You know them immediately as they like to trade on Leo Varadkar being a gay. Sinn Fein are murky as fuck. About as murky as you would expect a party run by an army council

Doubt they are Google Ads.
Would be great to see an example

Can't attest to Shinners ads, because thankfully I wouldn't give them the steam off my piss so the algorithm hasn't tagged me for any shite like that.

I do however, and God knows how the algorithm hooked me for this, get spammed dodgy as fuck YouTube ads telling me how Elon Musk will give all Irish people millions of dollars!!!
If Alphabet (and no doubt Meta too) don't give two fucks about obvious fucking scam shit like that then I can well believe more subtle political shit stirring is getting through.

I do occasionally get ads by the Irish Independence (anti-EU Irexit types) fuckwits though.