NPR

Was previously under the old PR as 'Market Meltdown' but have moderated the definition to include any interesting economics articles as well as equity/ trading chat.

Good day today on markets: QLD government reopen interstate borders and Boeing's (somewhat tenuous) successful test of their re-engineered plane has caused airline and tourism stocks to take a big rise today relative to broad ASX.

I'm surprised Boeing are persisting with the MAX considering the Market for travel at present

mat the expat wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:55 am I'm surprised Boeing are persisting with the MAX considering the Market for travel at present

I suppose it keeps them in the market to compete with the Airbus offering on speed and price. Haven't read much about Boeing in ages but I have a faint memory that the MAX was a direct competitor to a single Airbus offering and retreating from market would leave Airbus a monopoly (though a vastly reduced market).

I think they also have several orders that need to be filled and haven't (yet) been cancelled by some airlines.

Caley_Red wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:02 am

mat the expat wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:55 am I'm surprised Boeing are persisting with the MAX considering the Market for travel at present

I suppose it keeps them in the market to compete with the Airbus offering on speed and price. Haven't read much about Boeing in ages but I have a faint memory that the MAX was a direct competitor to a single Airbus offering and retreating from market would leave Airbus a monopoly (though a vastly reduced market).

I think they also have several orders that need to be filled and haven't (yet) been cancelled by some airlines.

Also, if the aircraft is available to buy, it’s customers cancelling orders rather than Boeing. Very important in terms of which way cash flows when a contract is cancelled.

Saw Cirque du Soleil in trouble yesterday, looks like they are going into admin.

Won't be the last whilst this rumbles on, seems a vaccine is really the only way out of this when you look at the carnage of the US

Northern Lights wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:50 am Saw Cirque du Soleil in trouble yesterday, looks like they are going into admin.

Won't be the last whilst this rumbles on, seems a vaccine is really the only way out of this when you look at the carnage of the US

Pretty much everywhere

Caley_Red wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:02 am

mat the expat wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:55 am I'm surprised Boeing are persisting with the MAX considering the Market for travel at present

I suppose it keeps them in the market to compete with the Airbus offering on speed and price. Haven't read much about Boeing in ages but I have a faint memory that the MAX was a direct competitor to a single Airbus offering and retreating from market would leave Airbus a monopoly (though a vastly reduced market).

I think they also have several orders that need to be filled and haven't (yet) been cancelled by some airlines.

Both Airbus and Boeing have around 8-10 years of backlog orders for the A32x and the B737M (more for Airbus tbf). So for many airlines, as long as Boeing can make the thing get through approvals, they;re not going to have much choice but to buy the MAX as they can;t wait 10 years. Even the worst projections have international flight returning to pre COVID levels by 2024, so those airframes are going to be needed regardless.

My father recently sold out of his A2 Milk shares. Turned $480 into $250K in 3 years. It blows my mind and after the sense of what could have been subsides you look for the next opportunity. Seems A2 Milk was the best performing stock of the last so many years worldwide.

Mr Bungle wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:17 am My father recently sold out of his A2 Milk shares. Turned $480 into $250K in 3 years. It blows my mind and after the sense of what could have been subsides you look for the next opportunity. Seems A2 Milk was the best performing stock of the last so many years worldwide.

damn thats a great return.......

Sards wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:39 am

Mr Bungle wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:17 am My father recently sold out of his A2 Milk shares. Turned $480 into $250K in 3 years. It blows my mind and after the sense of what could have been subsides you look for the next opportunity. Seems A2 Milk was the best performing stock of the last so many years worldwide.

damn thats a great return.......

Albeit in Kiwi dollars only, so approx a billion rand.


The bugger forgot he even had them. Makes me sick.

Mr Bungle wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:46 am

Sards wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:39 am

Mr Bungle wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:17 am My father recently sold out of his A2 Milk shares. Turned $480 into $250K in 3 years. It blows my mind and after the sense of what could have been subsides you look for the next opportunity. Seems A2 Milk was the best performing stock of the last so many years worldwide.

damn thats a great return.......

Albeit in Kiwi dollars only, so approx a billion rand.


The bugger forgot he even had them. Makes me sick.

( I feel dirty using that smilie btw )

Not quite a billion....but if he is looking for a great investment buying at half price because of COVID I know a bloke who knows a bloke that lives in the greatest city in the world and is prepared to sell his business....location ....location....location

Thoughts on UK housebuilders please?

Persimmon announced this morning that their half year profits are down 43% which is a pretty decent result all things considered. I listened to Taylor Wimpey’s call a few weeks ago and they pretty much said expenses are going to be high relative to sales for the next year or so.

Given the much talked up pent-up demand in the UK for new housing, is now a good buying opportunity given the long-term demand is supposedly there?

Jim Lahey wrote: Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:44 am Thoughts on UK housebuilders please?

Persimmon announced this morning that their half year profits are down 43% which is a pretty decent result all things considered. I listened to Taylor Wimpey’s call a few weeks ago and they pretty much said expenses are going to be high relative to sales for the next year or so.

Given the much talked up pent-up demand in the UK for new housing, is now a good buying opportunity given the long-term demand is supposedly there?

I'm not sure. The property market is a bit of a mystery longer term at the moment. Commercial property, both office and retail space, will see demand cut by about 20-30%. That'll have a knock on to residential as well, and might see a lot of conversion activity in city centres.

They might get a short term boost but I think they're very high risk medium term.


Of course the flip side to that is that the UK is a consumer driven economy, and consumer confidence is significantly driven by over inflated house prices. So unless we actually do look at large scale change to the macroeconomic model, then we can expect significant government action to support house prices. However the cost of that could lag the economy as a whole and give very small margins to the big builders.

Mr Bungle wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:17 am My father recently sold out of his A2 Milk shares. Turned $480 into $250K in 3 years. It blows my mind and after the sense of what could have been subsides you look for the next opportunity. Seems A2 Milk was the best performing stock of the last so many years worldwide.

Bloody hell. Good job

Jim Lahey wrote: Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:44 am Thoughts on UK housebuilders please?

Persimmon announced this morning that their half year profits are down 43% which is a pretty decent result all things considered. I listened to Taylor Wimpey’s call a few weeks ago and they pretty much said expenses are going to be high relative to sales for the next year or so.

Given the much talked up pent-up demand in the UK for new housing, is now a good buying opportunity given the long-term demand is supposedly there?

I think there are some headwinds against them: the implementation of the Scruton reforms is liekly to trim operating margins and, with the government ripping up the antiquated planning system, there is going to be a good drive on supply. If the government enter the market in any serious form (which I think is possible given the psephology of home-owning) then I'd be fairly pessimistic on house builders. A bit of a story around margins really: the pricing power will collapse if the government starts building, their costs will rise as a result of the implementation of Scruton's recommendations, just a question of what's better: more building, slimmer margins or less and higher.
The other thing I'd be concerned about is the land that house builders sit on, always the most expensive part of any development: if COVID means far less office work in the future then there will be some fundamental changes in land value and those with land in the likes of a London or Manchester may suffer disproportionately and hence impair the carrying value on the balance. I'd be taking a good look at the asset side of the equation for house builders.
If COVID also puts an end to the migration-housing Ponzi scheme then the opening up of supply from planning reform and the fall in demand from lower net migration will be quite a bind for builders.
The outlook for office commercial is unremittingly bleak in the medium term so pay attention to what commercial (if any) they historically build and have in pipeline.

Jim Lahey wrote: Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:44 am Thoughts on UK housebuilders please?

Persimmon announced this morning that their half year profits are down 43% which is a pretty decent result all things considered. I listened to Taylor Wimpey’s call a few weeks ago and they pretty much said expenses are going to be high relative to sales for the next year or so.

Given the much talked up pent-up demand in the UK for new housing, is now a good buying opportunity given the long-term demand is supposedly there?

You should buy lots and lots of Persimmon shares, right now.
I should disclose I own some and got in at AvSP of about £13

Yeeb wrote: Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:52 am

Jim Lahey wrote: Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:44 am Thoughts on UK housebuilders please?

Persimmon announced this morning that their half year profits are down 43% which is a pretty decent result all things considered. I listened to Taylor Wimpey’s call a few weeks ago and they pretty much said expenses are going to be high relative to sales for the next year or so.

Given the much talked up pent-up demand in the UK for new housing, is now a good buying opportunity given the long-term demand is supposedly there?

You should buy lots and lots of Persimmon shares, right now.
I should disclose I own some and got in at AvSP of about £13

Time to check out and go buy yourself a kobe beef steak for lunch.

Will avoid that one then.

Anyone else signed up with Stockopedia for a bit of condensed financial news/data? I know pretty much all of the info is available free of charge elsewhere on the web (apart from their stock ranks/scores etc.) but it seems a pretty useful tool so far in terms of getting ideas before doing due diligence.

CrazyIslander wrote: Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:29 am

Mr Bungle wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:17 am My father recently sold out of his A2 Milk shares. Turned $480 into $250K in 3 years. It blows my mind and after the sense of what could have been subsides you look for the next opportunity. Seems A2 Milk was the best performing stock of the last so many years worldwide.

Bloody hell. Good job

Australia has been short of baby formula for the last 5 or so years, supply can't keep up with demand as Chinese were buying it up. Guess the savvy investor saw this and bought share.

The reason for this post comes from the Scottish Politics thread, which I greatly enjoy reading but I do not wish to derail the discussion.

I really do think there will be a day when Stephanie Kelton will be a globally infamous name. Her and her supporters' ideas are so dangerous, and they're already being practiced to quite a large extent.

I've read quite a lot of stuff by Michael Lewis, who is a well-known author. From reading his material, you realise the complete lack of collectivism in Western economies. There is no individual responsibility, and there is no bottom to greed. This is usually because politicians do not want to make politically unpopular, but necessary decisions.

This is a societal problem, and Westerns live far beyond their means. The amount of consumerism in the West must have increased massively since the 80s, but has productivity/real wealth increased at the same rate?

MMT seems like a silver bullet for those who want to keep their heads in the sand. I consider MMT supporters genuinely dangerous.

I brought shares in Rolls Royce and I am still losing money on paper, I brought shares in easy Jet and then panicked after Buffet warned about Airlines, I sold at a loss and then within 2 weeks they had gone up by 50%.