So, coronavirus...

[Paddington Bear]

Local pub gardens round this way looked like Twickenham High Street establishments 90 minutes before an England Test. NO WAY was anyone worried about social distancing and pub landlords were gleefully making up for lost time.

Spike will be inevitable and if we get locked down again....

No evidence of outdoor transmission from any major public gathering over the last year, can’t see that changing

[shaggy]

Local pub gardens round this way looked like Twickenham High Street establishments 90 minutes before an England Test. NO WAY was anyone worried about social distancing and pub landlords were gleefully making up for lost time.

Spike will be inevitable and if we get locked down again....

No evidence of outdoor transmission from any major public gathering over the last year, can’t see that changing

At some point the key metric of daily cases needs to replaced with those in hospital as outcomes move towards non-fatality. Then daily cases become irrelevant to an extent.

[Saint]

Local pub gardens round this way looked like Twickenham High Street establishments 90 minutes before an England Test. NO WAY was anyone worried about social distancing and pub landlords were gleefully making up for lost time.

Spike will be inevitable and if we get locked down again....

No evidence of outdoor transmission from any major public gathering over the last year, can’t see that changing

At some point the key metric of daily cases needs to replaced with those in hospital as outcomes move towards non-fatality. Then daily cases become irrelevant to an extent.

Published on the gov dashboard daily:

Patients admitted
Patients in hospital
Patients on ventilation
Tests conducted
Tests conducted by type
Tests conducted by pillar
Positive tests by date of test
Positives tests by date reported
7 day case rate
Deaths within 28 days
Deaths with Covid on death certificate

It's taken us 12 months, but we're now reporting damned near every stat that might be used as a metric in a single, easily accessible, location. We;re even posting deaths in two ways - date of certificate vs date reported.

[shaggy]

No evidence of outdoor transmission from any major public gathering over the last year, can’t see that changing

At some point the key metric of daily cases needs to replaced with those in hospital as outcomes move towards non-fatality. Then daily cases become irrelevant to an extent.

Published on the gov dashboard daily:

Patients admitted
Patients in hospital
Patients on ventilation
Tests conducted
Tests conducted by type
Tests conducted by pillar
Positive tests by date of test
Positives tests by date reported
7 day case rate
Deaths within 28 days
Deaths with Covid on death certificate

It's taken us 12 months, but we're now reporting damned near every stat that might be used as a metric in a single, easily accessible, location. We;re even posting deaths in two ways - date of certificate vs date reported.

True, but decisions on control measures will need to be far more clearly based on the extremis to ensure the general public are kept on board. Numbers almost however big mean little in the future when people are not ending up in hospital. This is a good outcome.

[Sandstorm]

No evidence of outdoor transmission from any major public gathering over the last year, can’t see that changing

At some point the key metric of daily cases needs to replaced with those in hospital as outcomes move towards non-fatality. Then daily cases become irrelevant to an extent.

Published on the gov dashboard daily:

Patients admitted
Patients in hospital
Patients on ventilation
Tests conducted
Tests conducted by type
Tests conducted by pillar
Positive tests by date of test
Positives tests by date reported
7 day case rate
Deaths within 28 days
Deaths with Covid on death certificate

It's taken us 12 months, but we're now reporting damned near every stat that might be used as a metric in a single, easily accessible, location. We;re even posting deaths in two ways - date of certificate vs date reported.

Sounds like a huge waste of money for what is just the flu.

[tc27]

Interesting comparisons of different UK nations:



NI has the most dysfunctional administration yet seems to have done better than the mainland.

[BnM]

France is currently 13% UK 47% ish few weeks and even with slow down we're still vaccinating a lot everyday. What is this man on, has he lost the plot, mistranslation

'Few' is doing a lot of work in that quote.

They're also going to need 30m or so doses too.

Well it's been a few weeks. https://www.statista.com/statistics/119 ... y-country/
Doses Per 100 people UK 62 France 25.
Hungary and Serbia are doing great though. Though Hungary is using Sputnik and the Sino one. don't know about Serbia.

[shaggy]

Interesting comparisons of different UK nations:



NI has the most dysfunctional administration yet seems to have done better than the mainland.

It’s almost as if factors outside of government response affect the outcome.

[Raggs]

'Few' is doing a lot of work in that quote.

They're also going to need 30m or so doses too.

Well it's been a few weeks. https://www.statista.com/statistics/119 ... y-country/
Doses Per 100 people UK 62 France 25.
Hungary and Serbia are doing great though. Though Hungary is using Sputnik and the Sino one. don't know about Serbia.

In the end the telling result between tortoise and hare comparisons isn't how many are vaccinated. It's how many have died since vaccines were available and could take effect. Uk has done really well on that front with its hare approach. Even if we don't succeed with our July target the vaccination strategy has clearly been a success.

[Insane_Homer]

Be very concerned about flights from India.

Exhibit A - Flight 6395

https://simpleflying.com/vistara-covid-positive-flight/

Passengers who are allowed to travel to Hong Kong must have a PCR test within 72 hours of travel. On arrival, they must undergo additional testing and stay in a government-mandated quarantine facility at their own expense for 21 days.

On arrival in Hong Kong, the passengers entered the mandatory quarantine as normal. Six reportedly tested positive at the airport. However, soon after, more passengers began testing positive.

A total of 25 passengers tested positive for COVID to the end of last week. On day 12 of the quarantine period, all travellers were tested again. Incredibly, 22 more passengers tested positive.

This brings the total positive passengers to an astounding 47, the most ever recorded on a flight to Hong Kong. A seat map of positive cases shared online shows a cluster in the middle of the economy section, but also other cases spread throughout the aircraft, even in first class.

[Paddington Bear]

Would really love to understand the logic behind the delay to changing a nation's status on the red list. India isn't the first it has happened to, and I really can't work it out.

[BnM]

Maybe it's something negotiated with India, they are currently withholding 5m AZ doses?

[SaintK]

Maybe it's something negotiated with India, they are currently withholding 5m AZ doses?

Or maybe sosmething to do with the fact that until yersterday the blonde slug was due to visit India for a meeting with Modi

[Saint]

Either way, the real problem is that there's travel agents now looking to charter planes to bring as many people over from India as possible before Friday

[Mahoney]

Colleague of my wife was planning on flying back from India just before the red list came into force. Just got a positive in a PCR test. Going to be a tax nightmare for him if he's there for any longer.

[Saint]

UK vaccine supply seems to be easing a bit - trending up to 3.4 million a week now, both 1st and second doses trending upwards (although there's a LOT more 2nd doses going on)

[Bokkom]

Outdoors is much better. I was looking at the Worldometers web site by state, and it’s obvious that the southern states are overall doing much better than the northern ones as far as new cases are concerned, despite generally having few restrictions. I put it down to being outdoors.

If you live north of the 35 latitude in the Northern Hemisphere as well as south of the 35 in the Southern Hemisphere, these kind of viruses will apparently always be a bit of an issue.

[Rinkals]

Outdoors is much better. I was looking at the Worldometers web site by state, and it’s obvious that the southern states are overall doing much better than the northern ones as far as new cases are concerned, despite generally having few restrictions. I put it down to being outdoors.

If you live north of the 35 latitude in the Northern Hemisphere as well as south of the 35 in the Southern Hemisphere, these kind of viruses will apparently always be a bit of an issue.

You're saying that it's just the 'flu?

No different to other influenza viruses?

Before you get indignant and start attacking me for misinterpreting you, that's pretty much what it appears that you are saying. I have family members who are adamant that the whole pandemic is a hoax designed to massage the egos of scientists and politicians and they pretty much express the same opinion.

[tc27]

UK vaccine supply seems to be easing a bit - trending up to 3.4 million a week now, both 1st and second doses trending upwards (although there's a LOT more 2nd doses going on)

Yes looking pretty good:

[FalseBayFC]

Outdoors is much better. I was looking at the Worldometers web site by state, and it’s obvious that the southern states are overall doing much better than the northern ones as far as new cases are concerned, despite generally having few restrictions. I put it down to being outdoors.

If you live north of the 35 latitude in the Northern Hemisphere as well as south of the 35 in the Southern Hemisphere, these kind of viruses will apparently always be a bit of an issue.

The virus is thriving in temperate and tropical Brazil and India.

[mat the expat]

I was supposed to get my first vaccine tomorrow. Cancelled.

Australia has gone from being the lucky country to the useless country

[Lobby]

Either way, the real problem is that there's travel agents now looking to charter planes to bring as many people over from India as possible before Friday

The FT has done some deeper analysis of India's figures, which make for very sobering reading, in particular their conclusion that all of the official figures are vastly undercounting the real impact, and that daily deaths could be 10X higher than officially reported, ie 17,000 a day rather than 1,700

[Lemoentjie]

India isn't widely vaccinated. If only it would give the SA Government a sense of urgency...

[shaggy]

On a lighter note during my team meeting yesterday we talked about offices reopening and what people’s thoughts and fears were of being in an office with other people for the first time in over a year.

All going nicely to plan until the quietest member raised a recent issue after she returned to the office a few weeks ago - the fear of passing wind and no longer just getting away with muting Teams/Zoom (delete as applicable). We all thought she was referring to someone else until she explained further!

[Ovals]

Either way, the real problem is that there's travel agents now looking to charter planes to bring as many people over from India as possible before Friday

The FT has done some deeper analysis of India's figures, which make for very sobering reading, in particular their conclusion that all of the official figures are vastly undercounting the real impact, and that daily deaths could be 10X higher than officially reported, ie 17,000 a day rather than 1,700

That's horrific. With 1.4bn people in India, the death toll could be horrendous. And, if it continues at it's current rate, it could see a complete breakdown of society.

[Saint]

Some really good real world data on the efficacy of vaccines. Out of 74,000-odd recent hospital admissions for Covid, there were only 2,000 or so who had received a single dose of either vaccine. Of those, only 32 had received their dose 3 or more weeks earlier

[Dinsdale Piranha]

Some really good real world data on the efficacy of vaccines. Out of 74,000-odd recent hospital admissions for Covid, there were only 2,000 or so who had received a single dose of either vaccine. Of those, only 32 had received their dose 3 or more weeks earlier

Also increasing evidence that the variants are not escaping the vaccines to any significant degree.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 06690.html

[Saint]

Some really good real world data on the efficacy of vaccines. Out of 74,000-odd recent hospital admissions for Covid, there were only 2,000 or so who had received a single dose of either vaccine. Of those, only 32 had received their dose 3 or more weeks earlier

Also increasing evidence that the variants are not escaping the vaccines to any significant degree.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 06690.html

That would be extremely good news if born out by larger datasets

[Saint]

Heathrow has refused permits for an and additional 8 flights from India before India gets red-flagged because the Border is already so understaffed that they can't keep social distancing enforced. The CAA has also confirmed it has received a large number of applications for charter flight permits and it's refused them all

[Sandstorm]

Heathrow has refused permits for an and additional 8 flights from India before India gets red-flagged because the Border is already so understaffed that they can't keep social distancing enforced. The CAA has also confirmed it has received a large number of applications for charter flight permits and it's refused them all

Bout time.

[Bokkom]

Outdoors is much better. I was looking at the Worldometers web site by state, and it’s obvious that the southern states are overall doing much better than the northern ones as far as new cases are concerned, despite generally having few restrictions. I put it down to being outdoors.

If you live north of the 35 latitude in the Northern Hemisphere as well as south of the 35 in the Southern Hemisphere, these kind of viruses will apparently always be a bit of an issue.

You're saying that it's just the 'flu?

No different to other influenza viruses?

Before you get indignant and start attacking me for misinterpreting you, that's pretty much what it appears that you are saying. I have family members who are adamant that the whole pandemic is a hoax designed to massage the egos of scientists and politicians and they pretty much express the same opinion.

You never disappoint. I will leave it to others to judge your "inferences".'

[Biffer]

Heathrow has refused permits for an and additional 8 flights from India before India gets red-flagged because the Border is already so understaffed that they can't keep social distancing enforced. The CAA has also confirmed it has received a large number of applications for charter flight permits and it's refused them all

Glad to see someone is trying to act even if these fucking shysters in government won't.

Watch some kind of pressure get put on them by no 10 to change the decision.

[Biffer]

From the BBC story

A briefing document drawn up by officials at Public Health England shows that between 25 March and 7 April, 3,345 arrivals from India were registered in UK border travel data. Of those 161 - or 4.8% - tested positive for Covid-19 after a PCR test.

[Saint]

Heathrow has refused permits for an and additional 8 flights from India before India gets red-flagged because the Border is already so understaffed that they can't keep social distancing enforced. The CAA has also confirmed it has received a large number of applications for charter flight permits and it's refused them all

Glad to see someone is trying to act even if these fucking shysters in government won't.

Watch some kind of pressure get put on them by no 10 to change the decision.

Heathrow at least can say they need the border to be staffed better if the government wants to push more people through. According to a colleague that has had to pass through, there's barely 1 desk in 20 open

[Calculon]

Bad (if unsurprising) news - the director of the Chinese CDC publicly admitted today that the Chinese vaccines "aren't very good". A recent study of Sinovac vaccine as delivered in Chile shows just 3% efficacy after a single dose, and 56% after a second dose. There's no similar stufy yet on Sinopharm - China are claiming 76% after two doses but that now seems unlikely

Later, the poor man tried to walk back his remarks (doubtless after at least one arm had been broken)

For reference, Sinovac accounts for almost 90% of all vaccine delivered in Chile, and while 56% is definitely better than nothing, we need to get volumes of the higher efficacy vaccines up rapidly

That probably explains why Chile's vaccination rate, which is second only to Israel, appears to be having a negligible effect on its case and death rates.

Indeed.

[Biffer]

Valneva vaccine going in to phase iii trials.

[Uncle fester]

Some really good real world data on the efficacy of vaccines. Out of 74,000-odd recent hospital admissions for Covid, there were only 2,000 or so who had received a single dose of either vaccine. Of those, only 32 had received their dose 3 or more weeks earlier

Also increasing evidence that the variants are not escaping the vaccines to any significant degree.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 06690.html

Great but need to work on the basis that a variant will eventually get past the available vaccines, I.e. roll them out asap and shut down international travel until then. That way individual countries can loosen their own restrictions but prevent the new strains from spreading.

[Calculon]

That probably explains why Chile's vaccination rate, which is second only to Israel, appears to be having a negligible effect on its case and death rates.

This is not true. Chile's death rates and case rates are falling very quickly in people aged 70+ (the ones who have been vaccinated).

Exactly, and the fact that a relatively poor developing country like Chile has already vaccinated a large percentage of their population, really shows up our government's farcical efforts

[sorCrer]

314000 new cases registered in one day in India.

[Paddington Bear]

314000 new cases registered in one day in India.

I guess this is an underestimate as well - really concerning