So, coronavirus...

[Lemoentjie]

From the BBC story

A briefing document drawn up by officials at Public Health England shows that between 25 March and 7 April, 3,345 arrivals from India were registered in UK border travel data. Of those 161 - or 4.8% - tested positive for Covid-19 after a PCR test.

If you scale that to the entire Indian population (although I don't pretend the Indian flying to London is representative of the average Indian), that would be 65m Indians currently with Covid!

[Lemoentjie]

That probably explains why Chile's vaccination rate, which is second only to Israel, appears to be having a negligible effect on its case and death rates.

This is not true. Chile's death rates and case rates are falling very quickly in people aged 70+ (the ones who have been vaccinated).

Exactly, and the fact that a relatively poor developing country like Chile has already vaccinated a large percentage of their population, really shows up our government's farcical efforts

Chile is a developed economy. It's part of the OECD. That's not to whitewash the SA Government's awful efforts, though.

[Calculon]

Fair enough, I thought they were more like Argentina.

[Biffer]

For info, Chile nominal GDP per capita $15,617 (50th globally). South Africa nominal GDP per capita $5,444 (91st globally). Estimated 2021 figures from IMF.

[tabascoboy]

How long do we have to wait for a day when all COVID news is optimisitc and encouraging?

Covid: India sees world's highest daily cases amid oxygen shortage

India has reported 314,835 new coronavirus cases in the last 24 hours - the highest one-day tally recorded anywhere in the world.

Deaths rose by 2,104 in the same time period, India's worst daily toll.

It brings the country's total confirmed cases close to 16 million, second only to the US.

India is in the grip of a vicious second wave and an acute oxygen shortage is raising more fears about its overwhelmed health care system.

It has led Delhi's highest court to publicly criticise the central government for its handling of the oxygen crisis in the city.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-56826645

[Saint]

How long do we have to wait for a day when all COVID news is optimisitc and encouraging?

Covid: India sees world's highest daily cases amid oxygen shortage

India has reported 314,835 new coronavirus cases in the last 24 hours - the highest one-day tally recorded anywhere in the world.

Deaths rose by 2,104 in the same time period, India's worst daily toll.

It brings the country's total confirmed cases close to 16 million, second only to the US.

India is in the grip of a vicious second wave and an acute oxygen shortage is raising more fears about its overwhelmed health care system.

It has led Delhi's highest court to publicly criticise the central government for its handling of the oxygen crisis in the city.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-56826645

That's still some ways off - India is vaccinating at an incredible rate now but the law of large numbers means that they've only got a first jab into 8% of their population - but they're third in terms of total jabs delivered now

[Saint]

And I just got my vaccination appointment confirmed for 1st May

[Raggs]

So USA has apparently placed a few more countries onto their Do Not Travel list, due to high covid levels. Including the UK and Israel....

Surely once Israel is on a list, you pretty much have to just say Do Not Travel?

[tc27]

UK has lower covid infection rates now than the US and further ahead in vaccinations - not that I think anyone should be travelling for all but a very small number or reasons.

[Lobby]

So USA has apparently placed a few more countries onto their Do Not Travel list, due to high covid levels. Including the UK and Israel....

Surely once Israel is on a list, you pretty much have to just say Do Not Travel?

Israel 1.6 cases per 100k, UK 3.7 cases per 100k, US 19.1 cases per 100k, but yes, if Israel is the measure for 'high' Covid levels, then pretty much everywhere should be off the list.

[Fangle]

The local press is reporting re-infections from covid. From about last June.

[Sandstorm]

And I just got my vaccination appointment confirmed for 1st May

[Sandstorm]

The local press is reporting re-infections from covid. From about last June.

Hmmm...less than 9 months immunity post-infection. Not a good stat.

[laurent]

The local press is reporting re-infections from covid. From about last June.

Hmmm...less than 9 months immunity post-infection. Not a good stat.

Brazilian numbers are likely shorter ...

:(

[Saint]

So USA has apparently placed a few more countries onto their Do Not Travel list, due to high covid levels. Including the UK and Israel....

Surely once Israel is on a list, you pretty much have to just say Do Not Travel?

Israel 1.6 cases per 100k, UK 3.7 cases per 100k, US 19.1 cases per 100k, but yes, if Israel is the measure for 'high' Covid levels, then pretty much everywhere should be off the list.

It's a bonkers list. Of the 50 countries that AREN'T at "Do Not Travel", Australia is at "Reconsider Travel" alongside Japan and China

[Saint]

The local press is reporting re-infections from covid. From about last June.

Hmmm...less than 9 months immunity post-infection. Not a good stat.

It's already known that the immunity won't be as strong, nor as long lasting. I'd be interested in knowing whether it's symptomatic, hospitalisation required etc

[Fangle]

Looking at the Worldometers website, it reports a that USA had about 98 thousand cases per million compared to UK at about 64 thousand. But in number of deaths they are very similar at 1,800 thousand per million.

Have I got that right?

[Slick]

I’ve just had my Moderna jab

[Ovals]

I’ve just had my Moderna jab

Had my 2nd AZ jab today.

[Saint]

Looking at the Worldometers website, it reports a that USA had about 98 thousand cases per million compared to UK at about 64 thousand. But in number of deaths they are very similar at 1,800 thousand per million.

Have I got that right?

Both numbers are fairly subjective. Cases are those detected by tests; so the reported number is a function of both the actual infection rate and the number of tests performed. Deaths are really subjective in how they're recorded and reported, so there's absolutely no standardisation between the two numbers. The standard in the USA varies between states, so trying to then compare the USA to another country based on these numbers is a fools errand. Probably the only real comparison that can be made is in excess death numbers

[Saint]

I’ve just had my Moderna jab

Had my 2nd AZ jab today.

Get ready for that blood clot

[Slick]

I’ve just had my Moderna jab

Had my 2nd AZ jab today.

Get ready for that blood clot

Dinnae

[Rinkals]

If you live north of the 35 latitude in the Northern Hemisphere as well as south of the 35 in the Southern Hemisphere, these kind of viruses will apparently always be a bit of an issue.

You're saying that it's just the 'flu?

No different to other influenza viruses?

Before you get indignant and start attacking me for misinterpreting you, that's pretty much what it appears that you are saying. I have family members who are adamant that the whole pandemic is a hoax designed to massage the egos of scientists and politicians and they pretty much express the same opinion.

You never disappoint. I will leave it to others to judge your "inferences".'

Oooh.

Nearly missed this one.

When you said "these kind of viruses", I naturally assumed that you were suggesting that "these kind of viruses" were fairly common occurrences.

If that is not what you are suggesting, then I'd be happy to hear you clarify what you meant.

As I said, I'm hearing the suggestion that Covid is nothing more than a 'flu variant often enough to feel that any implication that the pandemic is not a serious issue needs to be confronted.

[Saint]

In the meantime, the EU Commission wants member states to green light a lawsuit against AstraZeneca by the end of the week; and Germany is negotiating with Russia to purchase 30 million doses of Sputnik V subject to EMA approval

[BnM]

1. They've undermined the vaccine how many times?
2. They're still in negotiations for other vaccines....
3. Nobody is getting the doses (inc the UK) they hoped for, every producer is down on forecasts.
4. Do they really believe AZ are doing this on purpose?

I guess they definitely don't want a second order of this vaccine.

A legal case has been started by the European Commission against AstraZeneca over its "complete failure" to meet delivery and contractual agreements, Ireland's health minister has said.

Speaking to the Irish parliament, Stephen Donnelly said on Thursday: "With regard to AstraZeneca, a legal case has been initiated by the Commission and earlier this week I have joined Ireland as one of the parties to that legal case, specifically around AstraZeneca's complete failure to meet its delivery and contractual agreements for April, May and June."

Under its contract, the Anglo-Swedish pharmaceutical firm is committed to supplying 180 million doses - enough for 90 million people - to the EU in the second quarter of this year.

But EU officials have repeatedly accused the drugmaker of under-delivering.

Its chief executive Pascal Soriot told the EU Parliament in February that he believed they were on track to meet commitments for the second quarter.

The legal action comes amid ongoing concerns that the COVID-19 vaccine could be linked to blood clots.

Several countries in the bloc halted their rollout of the jab, but the European regulator has now ruled that "unusual" blood clots should be listed as a "very rare" side effect.

[Lobby]

1. They've undermined the vaccine how many times?
2. They're still in negotiations for other vaccines....
3. Nobody is getting the doses (inc the UK) they hoped for, every producer is down on forecasts.
4. Do they really believe AZ are doing this on purpose?

I guess they definitely don't want a second order of this vaccine.

A legal case has been started by the European Commission against AstraZeneca over its "complete failure" to meet delivery and contractual agreements, Ireland's health minister has said.

Speaking to the Irish parliament, Stephen Donnelly said on Thursday: "With regard to AstraZeneca, a legal case has been initiated by the Commission and earlier this week I have joined Ireland as one of the parties to that legal case, specifically around AstraZeneca's complete failure to meet its delivery and contractual agreements for April, May and June."

Under its contract, the Anglo-Swedish pharmaceutical firm is committed to supplying 180 million doses - enough for 90 million people - to the EU in the second quarter of this year.

But EU officials have repeatedly accused the drugmaker of under-delivering.

Its chief executive Pascal Soriot told the EU Parliament in February that he believed they were on track to meet commitments for the second quarter.

The legal action comes amid ongoing concerns that the COVID-19 vaccine could be linked to blood clots.

Several countries in the bloc halted their rollout of the jab, but the European regulator has now ruled that "unusual" blood clots should be listed as a "very rare" side effect.

EU is also not getting on with Valneva.

Yesterday, Valneva announced it was withdrawing from talks with the EU, citing the difficulties in dealing with EU bureaucracy as a problem, and said it would instead look to do deals with individual companies. Valneva Chief executive Thomas Lingelbach :

"We've committed significant time and effort to try to meet the needs of the central procurement process. Despite our recent clinical data, we have not made meaningful progress. We are now concentrating our efforts on EU member states and interested parties outside the EU."

The EU has responded today to say that Valneva has not met the conditions to conclude talks with the European Union on a supply deal of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate.

[Saint]

1. They've undermined the vaccine how many times?
2. They're still in negotiations for other vaccines....
3. Nobody is getting the doses (inc the UK) they hoped for, every producer is down on forecasts.
4. Do they really believe AZ are doing this on purpose?

I guess they definitely don't want a second order of this vaccine.

A legal case has been started by the European Commission against AstraZeneca over its "complete failure" to meet delivery and contractual agreements, Ireland's health minister has said.

Speaking to the Irish parliament, Stephen Donnelly said on Thursday: "With regard to AstraZeneca, a legal case has been initiated by the Commission and earlier this week I have joined Ireland as one of the parties to that legal case, specifically around AstraZeneca's complete failure to meet its delivery and contractual agreements for April, May and June."

Under its contract, the Anglo-Swedish pharmaceutical firm is committed to supplying 180 million doses - enough for 90 million people - to the EU in the second quarter of this year.

But EU officials have repeatedly accused the drugmaker of under-delivering.

Its chief executive Pascal Soriot told the EU Parliament in February that he believed they were on track to meet commitments for the second quarter.

The legal action comes amid ongoing concerns that the COVID-19 vaccine could be linked to blood clots.

Several countries in the bloc halted their rollout of the jab, but the European regulator has now ruled that "unusual" blood clots should be listed as a "very rare" side effect.

EU is also not getting on with Valneva.

Yesterday, Valneva announced it was withdrawing from talks with the EU, citing the difficulties in dealing with EU bureaucracy as a problem, and said it would instead look to do deals with individual companies. Valneva Chief executive Thomas Lingelbach :

"We've committed significant time and effort to try to meet the needs of the central procurement process. Despite our recent clinical data, we have not made meaningful progress. We are now concentrating our efforts on EU member states and interested parties outside the EU."

The EU has responded today to say that Valneva has not met the conditions to conclude talks with the European Union on a supply deal of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate.

So.....
Novovax is "delaying" concluding a deal with the EU
Valneva has pulled out of discussions

Who else do they fancy pissing off?

[The Druid]

Who else do they fancy pissing off?

They are buying Sputnik from the Russkies.
If their supplies run late I would love to see them try to poke the bear.

[BnM]

So.....
Novovax is "delaying" concluding a deal with the EU
Valneva has pulled out of discussions

Who else do they fancy pissing off?

The phrase beggars can't be choosers comes to mind. I think the pharma companies have been fine. Why on earth does the EU think it has the upper hand? The best outcome would be to work WITH them, they have pretty much all the power and I doubt anyone is going to criticise Valneva and possibly Novovax given how imperious the EU has been.

[BnM]

Interesting comments.

[Saint]

Interesting comments.

For AZ, I suspect that AZ would be trying to work out how to get out of the option if the EU tried to exercise it, and wouldn;t participate in contract renewal discussions. The mRNA vaccines are impressive, bit they have long, complex supply chains, and can;t scale out particularly quickly. This is actually the real downside of new tech - not the risk of it not being safe, the risk of not being able to scale if it turns out to be safe

[Saint]

It’s working

WASHINGTON (AP) — COVID-19 hospitalizations among older Americans have plunged 80% since the start of the year, dramatic proof the vaccination campaign is working. Now the trick is to get more of the nation's younger people to roll up their sleeves.

The drop-off in severe cases among people 65 and older is so dramatic that the hospitalization rate among this highly vaccinated group is now down to around the level of the next-youngest category, Americans 50 to 64.

That slide is especially encouraging because senior citizens have accounted for about 8 out of 10 deaths from COVID-19 since the virus hit the United States.

In my state of 6 million+, 56% of the adult population has been vax.

So Israel, UK, and now the USA seeing the same thing. As long as variants don't cause drastic problems we have a path out of this mess

[Sandstorm]

My mum worked in a Cape Town hospital for 40 years and they saw blood clots in patients every week. They are not rare.

Covid has made everyone fucking stupid.

[Saint]

My mum worked in a Cape Town hospital for 40 years and they saw blood clots in patients every week. They are not rare.

Covid has made everyone fucking stupid.

I can see the point., These specific blood clots (on the brain) are ridiculously rare to start with. They may be slightly less rare post AZ/Sputnik/Johnson. They are still ridiculously rare. The issue is the inability of people to understand differing levels of risk, especially risks that they would normally not even consider when taking an aspirin/paracetamol for a headache.

I will always come back to the basics. Individuals are (can be) smart. People, are, without exception, stupid

[Slick]

I’ve just had my Moderna jab

Had my 2nd AZ jab today.

Get ready for that blood clot

Pleased to report only a sore arm so far

[TheNatalShark]

1. They've undermined the vaccine how many times?
2. They're still in negotiations for other vaccines....
3. Nobody is getting the doses (inc the UK) they hoped for, every producer is down on forecasts.
4. Do they really believe AZ are doing this on purpose?

I guess they definitely don't want a second order of this vaccine.

Can you quote some of the instances where the EUCO / EMA or its institutions have undermined the vaccine? I don't think AZ will be too worried, as noted some months ago "if the EU had a leg to stand on, they would have initiated legal proceedings" etc...

Additionally AZ could offset any such costs in its legal notice launched this month against the Serum Institute of India for failing to export (after gov intervention) to meet AZ's commitments to the UK and other partners. It's a good thing they are suing SII for production in a country relatively untouched by Covid, and not in need of vaccines.

Would be as well covered in UK press as EUCO mulling legal case if they did. Nobody is getting the doses they ordered, so wouldn't make sense if AZ did such a thing in a country facing issues.


As for the comments around FR being "a few weeks behind UK", well on fag packet maths of even just UK current jabs to reach 70% with completed dosing, nevermind increased prod + Novavax, those few weeks probably still stretches into 2.5 months if the latest forecast deliveries for France are met (which include the additional/prioritisation of 50mm Pfizer doses to EU+NO+IS in Q2). With Curevac hoping for approval by early June + pre-production, and AZ have announced further delays since those forecasts so likely some plus and minuses on those numbers. Few weeks doing very heavy lifting indeed, though I imagine they'll follow through with eased restrictions mid-May so presume the goal posts will change to infer that Vs UK.




EUCO Vs Novavax/Valneva is a bit odd, they won't be approved/deliver to EU+NO+IS in time to be part of the programme before completion, so if we're looking for a summer holiday in pestilence ridden Europe bit odd to get pent up about it. If producers demonstrate scaling and protection Vs variants discussions for 2022+ would resume, bit naive to think they will walk and stay away (and EUCO wouldn't be more flexible) when they reach a point are confident they can match ambition with production like others. Pfizer/Biotech must be idiots if everyone under the sun perceives EU as unsatisfiable partner, but they keep running back.

[Ovals]

Had my 2nd AZ jab today.

Get ready for that blood clot

Pleased to report only a sore arm so far

I didn't get a sore arm with the 1st dose, or with the 2nd, so far. Just a bit of an ache in my lower back. Not entirely sure that the ache has anything to do with the vaccine though - I met up with a few others for some, outdoor, guitar practice last night and it got a bit chilly by the time we finished - so could be that. Either way, just happy to have had the full dose now.

[Saint]

New study from the UK based on 370,000 participants, tracking infections (as opposed to just symptoms) post vaccination for both Pfizer and AZ

First thing to note is that both vaccines performed almost identically. Three weeks after the first jab symptomatic infection fell by 74%. Asymptomatic infection fell by 57%

For Pfizer, after dose 2 infection fell by 90%. Not enough data was available for AZ as not enough second doses had been delivered by the time the study concluded.

A second study involving 46,000 participants show that both vaccines generate a strong sustained antibody response lasting at least 10 weeks out for a single jab. Interestingly, Pfizer generates a stronger initial response than AZ, but it falls off faster before levelling out at similar levels

[tc27]

Interesting read on the Valneva vaccine - French designed but being produced in and for the UK:

[Raggs]

Interesting read on the Valneva vaccine - French designed but being produced in and for the UK:

There was an interview with one of their head honchos. Said that the French government weren't interested, but the UK came straight in and offered funding etc.