Saint wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 3:50 pm
Like I said, at some point soon they actually need to deliver an absolute shitload of second jabs. We had a week where we hit nearly 5 million in the week, and with 800,000 in a single day. That's building up in the forecast for 2nd doses to be delivered, and without any external delivery from India or the EU for AZ has got to be a limiting factor at the moment. Not sure we'll be opening up to under 40s any time soon in most places
In Scotland I'm expecting second doses to trend down a bit in the next week, and first doses to kick in again. The big numbers of first doses up here were 31st Jan - 14th Feb, where 50,000+ were done each day, but it looks like they've been aiming for around a 10 week interval for the second dose, as there's now more second doses given than there were first doses by 14th Feb (1,348,000 vs 1,242,000). Last couple of weeks they were hitting 40-45,000 second doses a day to get to there, which meant first doses were low (<10,000/day). Expecting it to go to a 50/50 or 40/60 split of first dose v second dose now, as that will keep pace with the second dose rate (first doses were about 25-30k/day second half of Feb and most of March) allowing us to get through most of the 40-49 group in the next two or three weeks (about 350k more people to do).