The Scottish Politics Thread

[tc27]

Seems to me that there's a significant tactical (stop the SNP) vote for the constituencies, feck knows what's happening with the lists, those could be very interesting.

One thing that seems to be widely reported is that Alba may not get any list MSPs - apparently Salmond walking around the count ashen faced.

[Biffer]

Seems to me that there's a significant tactical (stop the SNP) vote for the constituencies, feck knows what's happening with the lists, those could be very interesting.

Although increased SNP majorities in Dundee West, Kilmarnock, Glasgow Anniesland and Perthshire North suggest the other direction of travel. Banffshire and Buchan Coast held with a much reduced majority though - I don't understand how fishing and farming communities are voting Conservative after what's happened to their export in the last few months.

[Jock42]

My SLabs friends Jonah curse continues - campaigned in Dundee West against Joe Fitzpatrick who resigned as a minister over drug deaths - he increased his majority

Say most people he met did not even know he was a minister.

Neither did I til I checked who the candidates were. Voted Labour but I wouldn't read much into that.

[tc27]

Big win for the SNP in East Lothian - no.6 on their target list.


Otherwise this is hard to predict - big swings in every direction so far - the excitement is almost enough to overcome the sense of dread at five more years of constitutional trench warfare.

[iarmhí]

According to Sky News, it's on a knife-edge now whether the SNP get a majority or not now

[Biffer]

Don’t think the East Lothian seat makes a huge amount of difference as the SNP will lose a list seat as a result. I think Ayr might be a gain though, and Edinburgh Central definitely is..

[tc27]

It absolutely is now. Banff and East Lothian really good results for the SNP but Carlaw held Eastwood which stopped the narrative somewhat.
is

AMS meant to prevent majorities on a minority of the vote but perhaps not in this case.

[tc27]

Jackie Ballie holds Bumbarton - after two recounts.

Pleased for the obvious reason and because I think she's an excellent MSP.

EOP today is:


SNP 46.99%
Lab 21.73%
Tory 21.09%
LibDem 8.59%
Green 0.71%
Others 0.89%

Or After 46 seats 47.7% Nationalist, 52.79% Unionist if you prefer to look at it that way :

Salmond and Galloway have bombed.

[tc27]

Its looking like the SNP will fall short of a majority now...Aberdeenshire West very likely staying Conservative

[tc27]

Confirmed its stayed blue...massive tactical voting.

Pro seperation majority due to list Green seats but don't think this will have the moral firepower to force a s30.

[Jock42]

Confirmed its stayed blue...massive tactical voting.

Pro seperation majority due to list Green seats but don't think this will have the moral firepower to force a s30.

I'm not as optimistic as you. Another few years of division and uncertainty

[Big D]

Confirmed its stayed blue...massive tactical voting.

Pro seperation majority due to list Green seats but don't think this will have the moral firepower to force a s30.

They absolutely will try and force it. And to be fair they'd have the pro independence majority in parliament to do so.

[Big D]

My preference would be they spend 3-4 years delivering their other manifesto promises first but I doubt that will happen.

[fishfoodie]

Jackie Ballie holds Bumbarton - after two recounts.

Pleased for the obvious reason and because I think she's an excellent MSP.

EOP today is:


SNP 46.99%
Lab 21.73%
Tory 21.09%
LibDem 8.59%
Green 0.71%
Others 0.89%

Or After 46 seats 47.7% Nationalist, 52.79% Unionist if you prefer to look at it that way :

Salmond and Galloway have bombed.

What a tragedy .....

All that money from Vlad wasted.

[Big D]

Jackie Ballie holds Bumbarton - after two recounts.

Pleased for the obvious reason and because I think she's an excellent MSP.

EOP today is:


SNP 46.99%
Lab 21.73%
Tory 21.09%
LibDem 8.59%
Green 0.71%
Others 0.89%

Or After 46 seats 47.7% Nationalist, 52.79% Unionist if you prefer to look at it that way :

Salmond and Galloway have bombed.

Only 65% voted. There's little excuse for not voting IMO.

I'd make it mandatory. Taking your percentages it's a little over a 3rd of voters for unionist parties, a little under a 3rd for pro indy and a little over a 3rd couldn't give enough of a toss.

[HKCJ]

I see our local dickhead with the ‘Vote Alba’ sign in his penthouse window has taken it down.. not sure if that’s from lack of need or sheer embarrassment.

[Biffer]

There is a mandate in the parliament for a referendum.

[Jockaline]

There's no mandate even if the SNP had got a majority, the referendum vote has already took place and the Scottish people rejected nationalism It's done and dusted. Continuing to ignore that result makes a mockery of Scotland voters to decide it's future, as they did. They said no and they continue to reject it. As above less posts state less than a third of of the voting public want it, and of those that vote more don't want it than do.

Boris will ignore any calls for another referendum, and rightly so. Those elected if they have any respect for the parliament and their country they should get on with the job they are elected to do, which is to concentrate on devolved matters for the good of the country and help us recover from the pandemic.

[tc27]

Confirmed its stayed blue...massive tactical voting.

Pro seperation majority due to list Green seats but don't think this will have the moral firepower to force a s30.

I'm not as optimistic as you. Another few years of division and uncertainty

Sadly taking that as a given at this point.

[tc27]

There is a mandate in the parliament for a referendum.

Less than half the voters support it, around a third of the total voters support it

On the other hand by gaming the list system the Greens produce a majority of MSPs for it

These metrics matter as it legally beyond the remit of the devolved Parliament so its an entirely moral arguement.

[Big D]

There is a mandate in the parliament for a referendum.

Less than half the voters support it, around a third of the total voters support it

On the other hand by gaming the list system the Greens produce a majority of MSPs for it

These metrics matter as it legally beyond the remit of the devolved Parliament so its an entirely moral arguement.

Look, I am sure Biffer and TH and others will tell you I am not I favour of independence (at this present time) but parties standing with a referendum as a key part of their manifesto have gained a combined majority.

It doesn't really matter if a third of the voting eligible public didn't give a toss enough to vote.

I don't like it, I don't agree with the need to a referendum but we live in a democracy and the people who voted have achieved the number of seats they needed. The pro union parties had the same chance.

The Westminster government can hide behind legal arguments but the voting public have made their point.

[Big D]

Confirmed its stayed blue...massive tactical voting.

Pro seperation majority due to list Green seats but don't think this will have the moral firepower to force a s30.

I'm not as optimistic as you. Another few years of division and uncertainty

This has and will cause irreparable damage in terms of division for generations.

That's the issue with referendums, the out side only need to win once.

[Slick]

There is a mandate in the parliament for a referendum.

Less than half the voters support it, around a third of the total voters support it

On the other hand by gaming the list system the Greens produce a majority of MSPs for it

These metrics matter as it legally beyond the remit of the devolved Parliament so its an entirely moral arguement.

Look, I am sure Biffer and TH and others will tell you I am not I favour of independence (at this present time) but parties standing with a referendum as a key part of their manifesto have gained a combined majority.

It doesn't really matter if a third of the voting eligible public didn't give a toss enough to vote.

I don't like it, I don't agree with the need to a referendum but we live in a democracy and the people who voted have achieved the number of seats they needed. The pro union parties had the same chance.

The Westminster government can hide behind legal arguments but the voting public have made their point.

They’ve just spent 2 months telling us that it’s only the Tory’s that are obsessed with an independence vote. Not them. No siree

[Jockaline]

The democratic vote was about who to represent you in a devolved parliament, nothing more. The devolved parliament has no power to have instruct yet another referendum.

The once in a generation referendum gave the UK the power to decide if there was another. They have a stonking majority and have been clear it ain't happening. They will not gamble, as Cameron did, on the Scots rejecting it again, even if it does look like that they would. The case for going it alone just hasn't been made, it's based airy fairy sentimentalism, and a quite unseemly anti English and Tory tropes. I'd be more open to it if those advocating for it were more honest about the consequences.

[Big D]

Less than half the voters support it, around a third of the total voters support it

On the other hand by gaming the list system the Greens produce a majority of MSPs for it

These metrics matter as it legally beyond the remit of the devolved Parliament so its an entirely moral arguement.

Look, I am sure Biffer and TH and others will tell you I am not I favour of independence (at this present time) but parties standing with a referendum as a key part of their manifesto have gained a combined majority.

It doesn't really matter if a third of the voting eligible public didn't give a toss enough to vote.

I don't like it, I don't agree with the need to a referendum but we live in a democracy and the people who voted have achieved the number of seats they needed. The pro union parties had the same chance.

The Westminster government can hide behind legal arguments but the voting public have made their point.

They’ve just spent 2 months telling us that it’s only the Tory’s that are obsessed with an independence vote. Not them. No siree

I don't disagree with you. But it is I their manifesto and they have a way of getting a majority for it.

I don't like it but it is what it is.

[tc27]

There is a mandate in the parliament for a referendum.

Less than half the voters support it, around a third of the total voters support it

On the other hand by gaming the list system the Greens produce a majority of MSPs for it

These metrics matter as it legally beyond the remit of the devolved Parliament so its an entirely moral arguement.

Look, I am sure Biffer and TH and others will tell you I am not I favour of independence (at this present time) but parties standing with a referendum as a key part of their manifesto have gained a combined majority.

It doesn't really matter if a third of the voting eligible public didn't give a toss enough to vote.

I don't like it, I don't agree with the need to a referendum but we live in a democracy and the people who voted have achieved the number of seats they needed. The pro union parties had the same chance.

The Westminster government can hide behind legal arguments but the voting public have made their point.

I think that.s a very good argument to be fair

My point would be that without the legal authority to actually pass the bill it exists as a way of pressuring the UK parliament to delegate the powers to make it legal - in that sense the extent it represents the democratic will of Scotland beyond the number of MSPs does matter in shitfing perceptions the UK as a whole and indeed in Scotland.

Anyway lets just all enjoy this.

[Slick]

SNP: here is our manifesto, we want independence and a load of free stuff but won’t raise tax

Why don’t you stop talking about independence and actually govern

SNP: like, OMG, why do you always go on about independence, we want to be judged on our record

OK, it’s shite

SNP: yeah, but Westminster. We need independence to achieve everything

Why don’t you stop talking about independence for a while and give governing a go

SNP: oh my god, you are so obsessed with independence, look at our manifesto

Etc etc ad infinitum

It’s a shite state of affairs that has been going round in circles for 10 years and looks like it will for another 10. But people, and quite a few intelligent people, will pretend it’s perfectly normal. It’s not, it’s crap, and dangerous for our country.

[Slick]

Look, I am sure Biffer and TH and others will tell you I am not I favour of independence (at this present time) but parties standing with a referendum as a key part of their manifesto have gained a combined majority.

It doesn't really matter if a third of the voting eligible public didn't give a toss enough to vote.

I don't like it, I don't agree with the need to a referendum but we live in a democracy and the people who voted have achieved the number of seats they needed. The pro union parties had the same chance.

The Westminster government can hide behind legal arguments but the voting public have made their point.

They’ve just spent 2 months telling us that it’s only the Tory’s that are obsessed with an independence vote. Not them. No siree

I don't disagree with you. But it is I their manifesto and they have a way of getting a majority for it.

I don't like it but it is what it is.

I’m kind of at the stage where id like UKG to call their bluff and give them a referendum in 18 months

[Dogbert]

SNP: here is our manifesto, we want independence and a load of free stuff but won’t raise tax

Why don’t you stop talking about independence and actually govern

SNP: like, OMG, why do you always go on about independence, we want to be judged on our record

OK, it’s shite

SNP: yeah, but Westminster. We need independence to achieve everything

Why don’t you stop talking about independence for a while and give governing a go

SNP: oh my god, you are so obsessed with independence, look at our manifesto

Etc etc ad infinitum

It’s a shite state of affairs that has been going round in circles for 10 years and looks like it will for another 10. But people, and quite a few intelligent people, will pretend it’s perfectly normal. It’s not, it’s crap, and dangerous for our country.

And the only legitimate way to change is by winning an election....

[Big D]

I think that.s a very good argument to be fair

My point would be that without the legal authority to actually pass the bill it exists as a way of pressuring the UK parliament to delegate the powers to make it legal - in that sense the extent it represents the democratic will of Scotland beyond the number of MSPs does matter in shitfing perceptions the UK as a whole and indeed in Scotland.

As I've said I'm firmly on the union side at the minute but Scotland is being held hostage by the prospect of a referendum.

The SNP returned 47 of 59 MPs, and in a system that was pretty much put in place to avoid a majority have almost secured a majority on their own and fairly comfortably secured a majority of MSPs from pro indy parties.

The only way we have a chance to move on is to put this to bed now. At least for a long time.

Otherwise we will be stuck in limbo indefinitely.

[Slick]

I think that.s a very good argument to be fair

My point would be that without the legal authority to actually pass the bill it exists as a way of pressuring the UK parliament to delegate the powers to make it legal - in that sense the extent it represents the democratic will of Scotland beyond the number of MSPs does matter in shitfing perceptions the UK as a whole and indeed in Scotland.

As I've said I'm firmly on the union side at the minute but Scotland is being held hostage by the prospect of a referendum.

The SNP returned 47 of 59 MPs, and in a system that was pretty much put in place to avoid a majority have almost secured a majority on their own and fairly comfortably secured a majority of MSPs from pro indy parties.

The only way we have a chance to move on is to put this to bed now. At least for a long time.

Otherwise we will be stuck in limbo indefinitely.

I think I’m probably quite close to you on this. On the Union side at the moment but would happily be moved across if I felt there was a plan and some competency. I don’t feel there is either at the moment

[Slick]

SNP: here is our manifesto, we want independence and a load of free stuff but won’t raise tax

Why don’t you stop talking about independence and actually govern

SNP: like, OMG, why do you always go on about independence, we want to be judged on our record

OK, it’s shite

SNP: yeah, but Westminster. We need independence to achieve everything

Why don’t you stop talking about independence for a while and give governing a go

SNP: oh my god, you are so obsessed with independence, look at our manifesto

Etc etc ad infinitum

It’s a shite state of affairs that has been going round in circles for 10 years and looks like it will for another 10. But people, and quite a few intelligent people, will pretend it’s perfectly normal. It’s not, it’s crap, and dangerous for our country.

And the only legitimate way to change is by winning an election....

It’s a decent point, but a 1/3 of the country don’t give a fuck how damaging any of it is, won’t engage in any of it and will just blindly vote. It’s a bit mental

[tc27]

I think that.s a very good argument to be fair

My point would be that without the legal authority to actually pass the bill it exists as a way of pressuring the UK parliament to delegate the powers to make it legal - in that sense the extent it represents the democratic will of Scotland beyond the number of MSPs does matter in shitfing perceptions the UK as a whole and indeed in Scotland.

As I've said I'm firmly on the union side at the minute but Scotland is being held hostage by the prospect of a referendum.

The SNP returned 47 of 59 MPs, and in a system that was pretty much put in place to avoid a majority have almost secured a majority on their own and fairly comfortably secured a majority of MSPs from pro indy parties.

The only way we have a chance to move on is to put this to bed now. At least for a long time.

Otherwise we will be stuck in limbo indefinitely.

I think the 'held hostage' part is true but agreeing to have a referendum gives one side the chance to win forever whereas the other has to keep winning - just having one to relief some pressure is not a balanced proposition (and as the last few years have shown a referendum itself is not going to put the issue away).

Again to go back to the mandate - another point I would make is both Scotland Acts, and two referendums have established the limits of Holyroods mandate. I am not totally sure an election where parties pledge to do things that exceed this (with a minority of voters) suddenly overturn this.

[tc27]

Final score:




One thing that sticks out is the Scottish Conservatives ran an awful campaign and matched their best ever result

[Dogbert]

SNP: here is our manifesto, we want independence and a load of free stuff but won’t raise tax

Why don’t you stop talking about independence and actually govern

SNP: like, OMG, why do you always go on about independence, we want to be judged on our record

OK, it’s shite

SNP: yeah, but Westminster. We need independence to achieve everything

Why don’t you stop talking about independence for a while and give governing a go

SNP: oh my god, you are so obsessed with independence, look at our manifesto

Etc etc ad infinitum

It’s a shite state of affairs that has been going round in circles for 10 years and looks like it will for another 10. But people, and quite a few intelligent people, will pretend it’s perfectly normal. It’s not, it’s crap, and dangerous for our country.

And the only legitimate way to change is by winning an election....

It’s a decent point, but a 1/3 of the country don’t give a fuck how damaging any of it is, won’t engage in any of it and will just blindly vote. It’s a bit mental

I believe that's what's called democracy , not perfect , unless you can come up with some other option

The parties that lost just have to work harder to persuade the electorate on their policies

[Biffer]

I think that.s a very good argument to be fair

My point would be that without the legal authority to actually pass the bill it exists as a way of pressuring the UK parliament to delegate the powers to make it legal - in that sense the extent it represents the democratic will of Scotland beyond the number of MSPs does matter in shitfing perceptions the UK as a whole and indeed in Scotland.

As I've said I'm firmly on the union side at the minute but Scotland is being held hostage by the prospect of a referendum.

The SNP returned 47 of 59 MPs, and in a system that was pretty much put in place to avoid a majority have almost secured a majority on their own and fairly comfortably secured a majority of MSPs from pro indy parties.

The only way we have a chance to move on is to put this to bed now. At least for a long time.

Otherwise we will be stuck in limbo indefinitely.

I think the 'held hostage' part is true but agreeing to have a referendum gives one side the chance to win forever whereas the other has to keep winning - just having one to relief some pressure is not a balanced proposition (and as the last few years have shown a referendum itself is not going to put the issue away).

Again to go back to the mandate - another point I would make is both Scotland Acts, and two referendums have established the limits of Holyroods mandate. I am not totally sure an election where parties pledge to do things that exceed this (with a minority of voters) suddenly overturn this.

Ok, so what’s the democratic route to a referendum for those of us who do want one?

[Tichtheid]

The changes were all slight in terms of numbers, the Tories won the same number of seats with a very slightly smaller percentage of the vote.

The Greens won more seats with an increased share of the vote, Labour lost seats and votes, as did Willie Whatshisface.

The SNP ended up one short of an overall majority in a system designed to not return majorities, they increased their number of seats and their percentage of the vote.


I still don't think they can win an Indy vote, the polling would have to be far higher, in the high 60s to 70s to allow for masses of cold feet at the ballot box, the difference between Indy and UK Brexit is the decades of drip feed against the EU, compared to the same time of telling Scots they aren't able to run their own country

[Jock42]

I still don't think they can win an Indy vote, the polling would have to be far higher, in the high 60s to 70s to allow for masses of cold feet at the ballot box, the difference between Indy and UK Brexit is the decades of drip feed against the EU, compared to the same time of telling Scots they aren't able to run their own country

No. There were still more votes for Unionst parties. Can't bare to think about the state of politics for the next few years, completely fucking depressing.

[fishfoodie]

I think the 'held hostage' part is true but agreeing to have a referendum gives one side the chance to win forever whereas the other has to keep winning - just having one to relief some pressure is not a balanced proposition (and as the last few years have shown a referendum itself is not going to put the issue away).

Again to go back to the mandate - another point I would make is both Scotland Acts, and two referendums have established the limits of Holyroods mandate. I am not totally sure an election where parties pledge to do things that exceed this (with a minority of voters) suddenly overturn this.

As a matter of interest; has this ever actually been challenged in Court ?

I ask; as it seems that Scotland could argue that the fact that the residents of NI have an agreed method/path to; self-determination, that Westminster plays no part in; but for Scotland; their future is in the gift of Westminster ?

I think this would make it very difficult for Westminster to sustain their sole right to determine whether or not a Referendum is called !

[Tichtheid]

I still don't think they can win an Indy vote, the polling would have to be far higher, in the high 60s to 70s to allow for masses of cold feet at the ballot box, the difference between Indy and UK Brexit is the decades of drip feed against the EU, compared to the same time of telling Scots they aren't able to run their own country

No. There were still more votes for Unionst parties. Can't bare to think about the state of politics for the next few years, completely fucking depressing.

To be fair though, there will be a lot of rhetoric from both sides of the Indy debate, but it's not going to impact on the day to day workings in Holyrood, by that I mean it's not going to be noticeable in Carbost or Lerwick or St Boswells or Kirkcudbright.

Debate is good, but that is depending on the level of it, if it can kept to issues then great.

I think any issue or statement can be attacked as hard as you like, but as soon as the argument becomes personal then the chance for genuine debate is obscured or lost.