Un Pilier wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:57 pm
I think the degree of undercut was what screwed Merc and I haven’t heard any definitive explaNations as to why it was so great. Anyone have any theories?
Loving the racing btw. Great to see real competitiveness
My theory is that the 1st stint was quite slow with HAM controlling the pace, and the overnight rain had de-rubbered the track so nobody had a realistic understanding of the true pace on hard tyres.

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Both HAM and VER were about 1.5s a lap faster on hards while they were hammering the 14-ish laps on the 2nd stint, than they were on the 1st stint mediums. HAM managed to maintain this pace until the end on hards knowing VER was chasing him, so it's probably a reasonable pace for that tyre.
VER was another 1.5s a lap faster when he changed back to mediums. I think the drop off in pace towards the end was due to VER working through traffic. Lower fuel loads aside, this is probably a more reasonable lap time on mediums, and had Lewis not been controlling the pace on the 1st stint (as is his perogative) something close to 2.5s a lapt faster could have been realised on the 1st stint (50s faster over 20 laps). Plenty of drivers (e.g. Norris passing 6 cars in 6 laps) showed that overtaking was very possible, but VER wouldn't really have known that in the 1st stint so was also managing his tyres.
So it seems that the strength of the undercut really came from a slower 1st stint because it wouldn't typically be expected that hard tyres are 1.5s faster than mediums, especially when VER showed in the 3rd stint that the mediums were more like 1s - 1.5 s faster than the hards.
With hindsight, had teams recognized the potential for a 2-stop and could have raised the pace in stint 1, a medium - medium - soft strategy would have covered race distance fastest. Although this would need enough confidence that you could last 10-ish laps on softs (VER managed 45 laps on mediums, leaving 8 laps on softs at the end. Stroll managed 19 laps on softs).