President Trump and US politics catchall

[laurent]

France is going to be pissed off Naval group had a contract with Australia (5 years of development already) to build 12 Subs in Australia.

I think they'll be happy enough. They milked the Ozzies for a load of money, & delivered nothing in return.

If they want any new contracts, they need to maybe consider the possibility of actually being able to deliver on the promises of their sales people !

Naval group is perfectly capable of delivering (after all they are capable of building nuclear subs) whether the Aussies knew what they wanted is another matter (similarly the tiger helicopter is used successfully in actual conflict yet the aussies could not keep them flying) ...

[Paddington Bear]

US, UK and Aus to announce new defense and intelligence pact shortly.

The most notable aspect will be RAN will be getting US designed submarine hulls running British designed reactors

Long overdue and whilst you would guess it would give the 'Biden hates Britain' crew pause for thought, it probably won't.

[tc27]

France is going to be pissed off Naval group had a contract with Australia (5 years of development already) to build 12 Subs in Australia.

I think they'll be happy enough. They milked the Ozzies for a load of money, & delivered nothing in return.

If they want any new contracts, they need to maybe consider the possibility of actually being able to deliver on the promises of their sales people !

Naval group is perfectly capable of delivering (after all they are capable of building nuclear subs) whether the Aussies knew what they wanted is another matter (similarly the tiger helicopter is used successfully in actual conflict yet the aussies could not keep them flying) ...

Yeah feel a little for NG here particularly as they were asked to redesign the Barracuda to make it diesel-electric powered and most of it has to be built in Australia. On the other hand competing for defence contracts is absolutely ruthless and the French play the game that way too - sometimes you lose..

[tc27]

US, UK and Aus to announce new defense and intelligence pact shortly.

The most notable aspect will be RAN will be getting US designed submarine hulls running British designed reactors

Long overdue and whilst you would guess it would give the 'Biden hates Britain' crew pause for thought, it probably won't.

Yes the whole 'Britain is isolated and powerless' narrative always was bullshit - yeah we were better of in the EU but its not a zero sum game outside of it.

Pandering to the East coast Irish vote is something all US presidents do but never actually translates into a difficulty for the US/UK relationship.

[Paddington Bear]

US, UK and Aus to announce new defense and intelligence pact shortly.

The most notable aspect will be RAN will be getting US designed submarine hulls running British designed reactors

Long overdue and whilst you would guess it would give the 'Biden hates Britain' crew pause for thought, it probably won't.

Yes the whole 'Britain is isolated and powerless' narrative always was bullshit - yeah we were better of in the EU but its not a zero sum game outside of it.

Pandering to the East coast Irish vote is something all US presidents do but never actually translates into a difficulty for the US/UK relationship.

Dated reference now but plenty of East Coast politicians would happily and without internal contradiction proudly display pictures of them shaking hands with Gerry Adams and Maggie Thatcher.

[inactionman]

US, UK and Aus to announce new defense and intelligence pact shortly.

The most notable aspect will be RAN will be getting US designed submarine hulls running British designed reactors

Long overdue and whilst you would guess it would give the 'Biden hates Britain' crew pause for thought, it probably won't.

To be honest, whether he does or he doesn't makes only the slightest difference - and even whether he does or he doesn't depends upon the crowd he's playing to at that moment.

[laurent]

I think they'll be happy enough. They milked the Ozzies for a load of money, & delivered nothing in return.

If they want any new contracts, they need to maybe consider the possibility of actually being able to deliver on the promises of their sales people !

Naval group is perfectly capable of delivering (after all they are capable of building nuclear subs) whether the Aussies knew what they wanted is another matter (similarly the tiger helicopter is used successfully in actual conflict yet the aussies could not keep them flying) ...

Yeah feel a little for NG here particularly as they were asked to redesign the Barracuda to make it diesel-electric powered and most of it has to be built in Australia. On the other hand competing for defence contracts is absolutely ruthless and the French play the game that way too - sometimes you lose..

The Yanks have been Very agressive recently (The Swiss Aircraft deal for a completely unsuitable aircraft ...)

[robmatic]

Naval group is perfectly capable of delivering (after all they are capable of building nuclear subs) whether the Aussies knew what they wanted is another matter (similarly the tiger helicopter is used successfully in actual conflict yet the aussies could not keep them flying) ...

Yeah feel a little for NG here particularly as they were asked to redesign the Barracuda to make it diesel-electric powered and most of it has to be built in Australia. On the other hand competing for defence contracts is absolutely ruthless and the French play the game that way too - sometimes you lose..

The Yanks have been Very agressive recently (The Swiss Aircraft deal for a completely unsuitable aircraft ...)

Well, the Afghanistan gravy train for the US defence industry seems to be over. They'll be keen to maintain that revenue somehow.

[Slick]

France is going to be pissed off Naval group had a contract with Australia (5 years of development already) to build 12 Subs in Australia.

I see NZ have already said the subs won't be allowed in their waters.

It's going to be a fascinating watch to see how woke a government can go before it dissolves.

[Calculon]

France is going to be pissed off Naval group had a contract with Australia (5 years of development already) to build 12 Subs in Australia.

I see NZ have already said the subs won't be allowed in their waters.

It's going to be a fascinating watch to see how woke a government can go before it dissolves.

Nuclear vessels have been banned from NZ waters since 1984.

[tc27]

Naval group is perfectly capable of delivering (after all they are capable of building nuclear subs) whether the Aussies knew what they wanted is another matter (similarly the tiger helicopter is used successfully in actual conflict yet the aussies could not keep them flying) ...

Yeah feel a little for NG here particularly as they were asked to redesign the Barracuda to make it diesel-electric powered and most of it has to be built in Australia. On the other hand competing for defence contracts is absolutely ruthless and the French play the game that way too - sometimes you lose..

The Yanks have been Very agressive recently (The Swiss Aircraft deal for a completely unsuitable aircraft ...)

Not sure anyone has the high ground here....some of the competitions Rafale has won have being pretty brutal.

From the sounds of it the Aussies wanted Nuclear boats and France wasn't willing to do the tech transfer to make it happen

[Paddington Bear]

This whining from the French is pretty unseemly - it's not like they always play above board on defence or anything else and had the positions been reversed we be getting a lot of smug comments about how Brits need to better understand diplomacy, their place in the world etc etc. Suck it up.

[FalseBayFC]

Oh great! Another cold war. As long as they keep out of Africa this time. That was a bit of a fuck up. Tens of millions dead in a couple of decades.

[laurent]

This whining from the French is pretty unseemly - it's not like they always play above board on defence or anything else and had the positions been reversed we be getting a lot of smug comments about how Brits need to better understand diplomacy, their place in the world etc etc. Suck it up.

Actually France never offer nuclear subs because of Non Proliferation accord Make that what you will.

US and UK are actually Breaking a UN treaty ...

And Fucking up their allies...

[GogLais]

This whining from the French is pretty unseemly - it's not like they always play above board on defence or anything else and had the positions been reversed we be getting a lot of smug comments about how Brits need to better understand diplomacy, their place in the world etc etc. Suck it up.

Actually France never offer nuclear subs because of Non Proliferation accord Make that what you will.

US and UK are actually Breaking a UN treaty ...

And Fucking up their allies...

I hadn't had cause to think about it before but I thought the NPT applied to weapons, not propulsion.

[fishfoodie]

This whining from the French is pretty unseemly - it's not like they always play above board on defence or anything else and had the positions been reversed we be getting a lot of smug comments about how Brits need to better understand diplomacy, their place in the world etc etc. Suck it up.

Actually France never offer nuclear subs because of Non Proliferation accord Make that what you will.

US and UK are actually Breaking a UN treaty ...

And Fucking up their allies...

I hadn't had cause to think about it before but I thought the NPT applied to weapons, not propulsion.

These Reactors use HEU, which is controlled by the NPT.

It should also be said that it's a little early for the UK & US to be celebrating. They're now in exactly the same position as the French were years ago; after the boys in sales promised the world; the engineers need to work out how to create, more or less from the ground up; a native Ozzie submarine building capacity !

The state of the latest UK Subs shows how hard it is to maintain, & sustain, let alone create such a capacity !!

[Paddington Bear]

This whining from the French is pretty unseemly - it's not like they always play above board on defence or anything else and had the positions been reversed we be getting a lot of smug comments about how Brits need to better understand diplomacy, their place in the world etc etc. Suck it up.

Actually France never offer nuclear subs because of Non Proliferation accord Make that what you will.

US and UK are actually Breaking a UN treaty ...

And Fucking up their allies...

Except we're not breaking a treaty and we're supporting our ally. France would have done exactly the same as we have done and the same people now crying salt tears would be crowing again at us. The fact that the Orsay is happy to chuck stones around their glasshouse doesn't mean we need to dignify it.

[Paddington Bear]

Actually France never offer nuclear subs because of Non Proliferation accord Make that what you will.

US and UK are actually Breaking a UN treaty ...

And Fucking up their allies...

I hadn't had cause to think about it before but I thought the NPT applied to weapons, not propulsion.

These Reactors use HEU, which is controlled by the NPT.

It should also be said that it's a little early for the UK & US to be celebrating. They're now in exactly the same position as the French were years ago; after the boys in sales promised the world; the engineers need to work out how to create, more or less from the ground up; a native Ozzie submarine building capacity !

The state of the latest UK Subs shows how hard it is to maintain, & sustain, let alone create such a capacity !!

Best case estimates suggest 15 years until Oz deploys a nuclear submarine, the timescales show exactly why Australia has looked for help.
Not that the only purpose of the alliance is the subs, far from it. It's a formalisation of something that should have been formalised years and years ago, Australia and Britain are very similar countries (concerningly so...).

[Niegs]

[laurent]

This whining from the French is pretty unseemly - it's not like they always play above board on defence or anything else and had the positions been reversed we be getting a lot of smug comments about how Brits need to better understand diplomacy, their place in the world etc etc. Suck it up.

Actually France never offer nuclear subs because of Non Proliferation accord Make that what you will.

US and UK are actually Breaking a UN treaty ...

And Fucking up their allies...

Except we're not breaking a treaty and we're supporting our ally. France would have done exactly the same as we have done and the same people now crying salt tears would be crowing again at us. The fact that the Orsay is happy to chuck stones around their glasshouse doesn't mean we need to dignify it.

You are as the US/UK reactor use Enriched Uranium.

Both the UK and US government Went behind Naval group and Lockheed Martin to Fuck this contract (5 years in).
Naval group will lose a lot but Lockheed martin stand to lose even more.
Contract was 35 Billion Euros, 8 for Naval Group. Lockheed Martin the remainder

[GogLais]

Actually France never offer nuclear subs because of Non Proliferation accord Make that what you will.

US and UK are actually Breaking a UN treaty ...

And Fucking up their allies...

Except we're not breaking a treaty and we're supporting our ally. France would have done exactly the same as we have done and the same people now crying salt tears would be crowing again at us. The fact that the Orsay is happy to chuck stones around their glasshouse doesn't mean we need to dignify it.

You are as the US/UK reactor use Enriched Uranium.

They may well do. There's a major proviso that I'm not a diplomat or a lawyer but it's called the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty and the initial articles refer to nuclear weapons or explosive devices.

[Paddington Bear]

Actually France never offer nuclear subs because of Non Proliferation accord Make that what you will.

US and UK are actually Breaking a UN treaty ...

And Fucking up their allies...

Except we're not breaking a treaty and we're supporting our ally. France would have done exactly the same as we have done and the same people now crying salt tears would be crowing again at us. The fact that the Orsay is happy to chuck stones around their glasshouse doesn't mean we need to dignify it.

You are as the US/UK reactor use Enriched Uranium.

Both the UK and US government Went behind Naval group and Lockheed Martin to Fuck this contract (5 years in).
Naval group will lose a lot but Lockheed martin stand to lose even more.
Contract was 35 Billion Euros, 8 for Naval Group. Lockheed Martin the remainder

Australia approached us. And don't get self-righteous about it, you know damn well France would have done exactly the same and has done much dodgier stuff in the past.

[Hugo]

[_Os_]

Oh great! Another cold war. As long as they keep out of Africa this time. That was a bit of a fuck up. Tens of millions dead in a couple of decades.

There has to be two sides to have a Cold War.

You can go through every African country's imports/exports, the top three is always China/EU/other African countries. Doesn't look like much prospect of the EU joining this new Cold War the US seems to want. So the prospects of dragging us into it are low.

The logic can be applied to Asia also, China/HK make up 20%-40% of the imports/exports for all those countries. Unsurprisingly not many of them seem keen on fighting China. The clever ones like the Aussies, will get the US and whoever else to pay for their military and give them good deals. Whilst continuing the massive trade with China/HK, and all the other countries in the region that are also all Chinese connected economies. So the US provides the defence, and China their economy. The calculations for the nations in the region are really about accommodating China, because that's who they economically depend on. With everything China has done they would already be in sanctions up to their eyeballs if anyone could do that and not end up significantly worse off themselves, the same goes for even officially recognising Taiwan it's a state only a handful of places that are so insignificant they don't matter can even officially say is a state. It's all a bit silly.

It's really about the US losing hegemony in that region. If China continues on its current trajectory they'll take Taiwan in the 2030s, no one will be able/willing to stop them so no one will. And even if China is stopped from taking Taiwan once, there's still a China with a massive population/economy that will be regionally dominant just because it's in the region and the US is not, and still a China that has taking Taiwan as its primary objective, so stopping them once just means having to stop them again the time after.

[Gumboot]

If China continues on its current trajectory they'll take Taiwan in the 2030s, no one will be able/willing to stop them so no one will. And even if China is stopped from taking Taiwan once, there's still a China with a massive population/economy that will be regionally dominant just because it's in the region and the US is not, and still a China that has taking Taiwan as its primary objective, so stopping them once just means having to stop them again the time after.

Disagree. I don't think you've taken into account the probable Taiwanese response to a PRC attack, or just what a vibrant, robust and hard-earned democracy the 'renegade province' now is. Their very well equipped and trained military are not about to capitulate without one helluva fight. And the Taiwanese have shown through recent free and fair election results that they are in no mood to take any shit (other than the usual endless sabre-rattling) from Beijing. And that's all before taking into account the international support Taiwan would undoubtedly receive. China won't attack any time in the foreseeable future, imho.

[TB63]

[laurent]

Except we're not breaking a treaty and we're supporting our ally. France would have done exactly the same as we have done and the same people now crying salt tears would be crowing again at us. The fact that the Orsay is happy to chuck stones around their glasshouse doesn't mean we need to dignify it.

You are as the US/UK reactor use Enriched Uranium.

Both the UK and US government Went behind Naval group and Lockheed Martin to Fuck this contract (5 years in).
Naval group will lose a lot but Lockheed martin stand to lose even more.
Contract was 35 Billion Euros, 8 for Naval Group. Lockheed Martin the remainder

Australia approached us. And don't get self-righteous about it, you know damn well France would have done exactly the same and has done much dodgier stuff in the past.

No they would not.
Not a single one of the Nuclear power exported this kind of technology until now.
https://www.meta-defense.fr/en/2021/09/ ... e-pandore/

Naval group was selling modified Barracuda class subs these are Nuclear subs in French arsenals yet the Aussies were getting Diesels, Guess why?

[_Os_]

If China continues on its current trajectory they'll take Taiwan in the 2030s, no one will be able/willing to stop them so no one will. And even if China is stopped from taking Taiwan once, there's still a China with a massive population/economy that will be regionally dominant just because it's in the region and the US is not, and still a China that has taking Taiwan as its primary objective, so stopping them once just means having to stop them again the time after.

Disagree. I don't think you've taken into account the probable Taiwanese response to a PRC attack, or just what a vibrant, robust and hard-earned democracy the 'renegade province' now is. Their very well equipped and trained military are not about to capitulate without one helluva fight. And the Taiwanese have shown through recent free and fair election results that they are in no mood to take any shit (other than the usual endless sabre-rattling) from Beijing. And that's all before taking into account the international support Taiwan would undoubtedly receive. China won't attack any time in the foreseeable future, imho.

Taking Taiwan is China's primary strategic objective, the main Taiwanese island is 50km from the Chinese coast, not far. Military action will be the last resort for them, I doubt it'll even come to military action. But I'll do a rundown of their military quickly.

Russia ended up selling them Sukhoi Su-35S fighters, it wasn't a big sale and very obvious China are going to reverse engine the bits they want (the engines probably), it was a token sale of about 20 units because the Russians decided they could either give it up now and get some cash or the Chinese would have superseded the tech in 5 years anyway. Chinese aircraft tech is minimum what Russia has, then there's all the tech they've stolen (the Z10 Chinese attack helicopter is clearly a stolen Rooivalk or Eurotiger), then there's some collaborations they've had (the Israeli Lavi and Chinese J10 look the same, there's a reason Russia and China don't oppose Israel). They also now have some stuff they've made like the semi-stealth J20, that can be armed with beyond visual range air-to-air missiles that have an estimated range of 200km, in any invasion of Taiwan the battle space will be so crowded that even semi-stealth will be good enough to get something through Taiwanese/US air defence. Right now today they're probing Taiwanese airspace all the time.

Their missile inventory has the DF series of ballistic anti-shipping missiles. They could fire them from the Gobi desert unmolested at targets beyond Japan and still have range to spare, they have an accuracy of 100m so they'll be used in saturation attacks on carrier groups. For targeting they've been launching Yaogan spy satellites in batches of 3 since the 2000s, there must be getting on for over 100 of the things up by now. There's a whole variety of shorter range cruise missile type anti-shipping missiles. The point with the missiles is, China is on the land and is good at manufacturing shit, it doesn't matter how good a ship's countermeasures are if it's overwhelmed uses up all those countermeasures and is still overwhelmed.

As for "the international support Taiwan would undoubtedly receive", the minimum buy in for nations hosting US bases and allowing those bases to be used, is a lot of missiles raining down on them (most of the US bases in Japan are right next to heavily populated areas), so that's mass civilian causalities win or lose. The worst case for Japan if they get involved and lose, is losing some of their very small islands near Taiwan. For South Korea though, the potential downside is much more severe, worst case for them is a land war against NK and China. Even Taiwan isn't going to fight for long if they think they'll lose, it'll hardly do them any favours "fighting hard" if they're not going to win.

And the main point in all this is, it's their primary objective 50km from the Chinese coast (smaller islands are close enough to swim to from China, they'll be gobbled up long before Taiwan proper is). There is no plan capable of preventing China taking something 50km away forever. No one else has it as their primary objective so no one else is going to risk whatever they're prepared to risk.

The Aussie plan does seem to be US defence and Chinese economy. Good luck with that and the war with China that'll definitely never happen.

[Gumboot]

Yeah I do know where Taiwan is. Lived there for 20 years, first arrived in 1986 when Chiang Ching-kuo was president and martial law was in place - had to be very careful about certain topics of conversation...

The Tiananmen Square Massacre was quite unnerving from our close vantage point across the narrow Strait, esp. when reports started coming through that PLA troops and tank convoys were mobilizing towards the Fujian coast as Beijing hunted down the remaining democracy activists who were on the run, and sought to divert their populace's attention from their domestic brutality by, you guessed it, more sabre-rattling at Taiwan.

That was as close to open conflict as things have got since I was there.

As for military action being Beijing's 'last resort'...nah, it's their only resort. Taiwan has never been part of China, and I don't think it ever will be.

[Calculon]

French foreign minister speaks

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-58610234

The fact that for the first time in the history of relations between the United States and France we are recalling our ambassador for consultations is a serious political act, which shows the magnitude of the crisis that exists now between our countries," he told France 2.

He said the ambassadors were being recalled to "re-evaluate the situation".

But he said France had seen "no need" to recall its ambassador to the UK, as he accused the country of "constant opportunism".

"Britain in this whole thing is a bit like the third wheel," he said.

[Rinkals]

This whining from the French is pretty unseemly - it's not like they always play above board on defence or anything else and had the positions been reversed we be getting a lot of smug comments about how Brits need to better understand diplomacy, their place in the world etc etc. Suck it up.

I heard that the main reason the Aussies stopped the deal was because the French didn’t want to move the torpedo tubes from the bow to the stern.

Aft facing torpedoes make a lot more sense than forward facing ones.

[Lemoentjie]

Sjoe, just caught up on all of that. The French Government are acting like children! Wow

[tc27]

French foreign minister speaks

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-58610234

The fact that for the first time in the history of relations between the United States and France we are recalling our ambassador for consultations is a serious political act, which shows the magnitude of the crisis that exists now between our countries," he told France 2.

He said the ambassadors were being recalled to "re-evaluate the situation".

But he said France had seen "no need" to recall its ambassador to the UK, as he accused the country of "constant opportunism".

"Britain in this whole thing is a bit like the third wheel," he said.

Aside from doing the behind the scenes brokering of the deal with the Americans and making it viable (as the yanks cant export their reactors) and in all likelihood gaining an export customer for it the next generation of SSN design the UK is hardly being involved at all.

[Calculon]

Yeah, I guess aukus will sort out the details of which defense contractors get what cut in the next few years.

[Uncle fester]

If China continues on its current trajectory they'll take Taiwan in the 2030s, no one will be able/willing to stop them so no one will. And even if China is stopped from taking Taiwan once, there's still a China with a massive population/economy that will be regionally dominant just because it's in the region and the US is not, and still a China that has taking Taiwan as its primary objective, so stopping them once just means having to stop them again the time after.

Disagree. I don't think you've taken into account the probable Taiwanese response to a PRC attack, or just what a vibrant, robust and hard-earned democracy the 'renegade province' now is. Their very well equipped and trained military are not about to capitulate without one helluva fight. And the Taiwanese have shown through recent free and fair election results that they are in no mood to take any shit (other than the usual endless sabre-rattling) from Beijing. And that's all before taking into account the international support Taiwan would undoubtedly receive. China won't attack any time in the foreseeable future, imho.

Xi Jinping is 68. In 2030's he'll be pushing 80 and he has successfully eliminated all possible competition for his seat, which means there's no clear line of succession and chucks out the previous system of rule + succession by consensus.

China could be consumed with "internal issues" when it comes to that changeover.

[convoluted]

... On Fox News and other pro-Trump outlets, there have been unprecedented attacks on the Military Leadership in the last few days and I've read opinions that view this as part of an attempt to drive a wedge between the rank-and-file and Command. The feeling is that the January 6th could have succeeded but that the Generals failed to support it. .....

Have you seen the surveillance tapes of the STORMING OF THE CAPITOL that Pelosi and the Biden admin tried so hard to hide until a judge forced their release yesterday??
They ''white supremacist insurrection terrorists" looked nothing more than rambling middle-aged tourists taking selfies and looking a little lost as they milled around in the foyers and corridors, intermingling in most friendly manner with the Capitol police.

This, the alleged Pearl Harbour and Gettysburg rolled into one.

They attacked with shot and shell ...
Yelling "Shashow" as they fell ...

In reality, they didn't even roll any Jaffas down the aisles.

The only aggro, and the scenes repeatedly rammed down your gullible throats by the complicit MSM, came from the masked and planted FBI agents and experienced Antifa thugs whose allocated task was to con you buffoons into a false narrative that the Dems hoped would eliminate Trump once and for all.

Pelosi, in charge of security at the Capitol, refused offers prior to Jan 6 of a solid national guard presence. That was to deliberately leave the Capitol all but undefended in order to make it as easy as possible for the plants to smash their way in and encourage the Trumpies to follow them inside.

Release yesterday of the hours and hours of surveillance tape that the Dems had tried so hard to suppress blows the whole "Jan 6 Insurrection" farce out of the water.

[Rinkals]

Pass the Kool Aid.

[Slick]

I do so enjoy your posts.

Just to be clear, are we saying that the election was rigged and the Capitol business was planned and executed by the Dems?

[convoluted]

I do so enjoy your posts.

Just to be clear, are we saying that the election was rigged and the Capitol business was planned and executed by the Dems?

Absolutely we are, and I've said so from each of their beginnings.
And 'we' suggests that you have finally seen the light??

[convoluted]

... and put forward for us the name of even one 'armed Trump white supremacist insurrectionist terrorist' who has been charged as being such.
Go on.

All they have is a bunch of people charged with trespass and absolutely nothing else.