So, coronavirus...

[Biffer]

Yes but at that stage we were at level 4 lockdown with fairly rigid adherence to all the precautions. The downward trend in the current wave has happened concurrently with a loosening of these. It will be interesting to observe the trend in a few weeks time. Especially since events with large attendances are now back on the table.

My understanding is we're unlikely to get proper herd immunity like for example we got for measles. The virus will continue to circulate in the background, infecting people and killing of the vulnerable. As shown in the UK, the virus can still spread around (infect people and be transmitted) even when high levels of the population have some level of immunity through vaccines/previous infections or both. In saying that, I think enough people in SA have some level of immunity against the delta variant (and many of the most vulnerable have already died) that I don't think there will be a fourth wave driven by the delta variant with anything like the mortality we've seen wave 3. Wave one was the alpha, 2 the beta, new variants could complicate matters but hopefully enough immunity will carry over to any new variant.

I fully agree that COVID will always be around, it is a similar type of virus than the flu, it just mutates to fast for us to build up full immunity to it for a long period of time. The day they find a way to eradicate the flu is the day they will get rid of Covid as well. I think most people's bodies might build up enough resistance over time so that Covid just feels like another flu. So eventually most people might not end up in hospital anymore but they will still get it in some way or form like the yearly flu. Exactly what the current vaccines are trying to do, just give our bodies a better chance to fight the virus if we get it.

Might not be as far away as you think

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-re ... -candidate

[JM2K6]

I enjoyed this article on the UK decision making:
https://unherd.com/2021/10/the-men-who-failed-britain/

It is good, and Chivers continues to be the only thing worth reading at Unherd. The comments, however, well... Jesus Christ.

[Ovals]

Daily cases up to 45K today. In my locality they've gone up by a factor of 7 in the last month.

Still can't understand why we're seeing so many more cases (and deaths) than in the rest of europe - despite having stolen a march on getting the vaccines out there.

[dpedin]

Daily cases up to 45K today. In my locality they've gone up by a factor of 7 in the last month.

Still can't understand why we're seeing so many more cases (and deaths) than in the rest of europe - despite having stolen a march on getting the vaccines out there.

Schools are now main centres of transmission - case numbers in 10-19 year olds is 2-4 times that of other age groups in England. 40-49 age group also rising which I presume is the parents of kids coming home infected? Scotland saw the same pattern a few weeks ago as our schools went back earlier, we are now seeing the same effect in England. However Scotland retained some PH mitigations such as mask wearing on public transport and in shops, etc so we might see higher number of cases and a longer period of high case numbers in England as a result? The cold weather due this weekend which will drive folk indoors isn't going to help

The lack of basic PH mitigation in many schools/colleges is a staggering disaster and numbers of children being hospitalised or being really ill, whilst still very, very small is rising. Exposing kids to a virus we still don't know enough about yet and could possibly lead to longer term health issues whilst we have a safe and effective vaccination available is criminal.

The other issue is that vaccination is plateauing in those age groups that are eligible but who have yet to take it up. 12% of the pop who are eligible have still not been vaccinated which, along with the 14% who aren't eligible (kids) means we have c25% of the pop unvaccinated, roughly about 16 million. With the new Delta variant I think we needed about 90-95% vaccinated to control community transmission, we are obviously quite a bit away from that.

Why have we more cases and deaths than most other countries in Europe? Not sure we want to down that route again but suffice to say whilst we went early with vaccination roll out many European countries are now ahead of the UK - France, Belgium, Norway, Ireland, Italy, Iceland, Malta, etc have all vaccinated more folk per 100k of pop than we have, though not by much.

[salanya]

I'm still surprised how quiet/nonchalant the media coverage is about the Covid number increases.
I know that thanks to vaccinations the number of deaths has greatly reduced, but 150 people dying a day is still a high number, and a lot of families impacted. And we that those who don't die spend long times in hospital (7000 people in hospital currently) and there are the long covid concerns.

And it's not like there are any issues around NHS and the numbers of nurses and GPs.....

But what I'm astonished by is that there still isn't more research, and more insistence on research, on why it's affecting the UK population so much worse. General health of the population and levels of obesity are clearly one contributing factor, but there has to be more to it, considering the difference in casualty rates.

This government is lucky we live in a Trumpian age: one day the issue is pig farmers, then it's petrol delivery, yesterday it was the giant government screw ups on handling the pandemic, today it's the GP numbers and tomorrow it'll be transport/logistics issues again.
Shit washed away with more shit and then more shit - the question is if the drain will ever get blocked for some of it to actually stick?

[fishfoodie]

This winter will be crucial.

If it's a cold, snowy winter; or the French decide to do a little squeezing on their end of the chunnel; or the EU might grow a set, & start to apply some trade sanctions, or any of a dozen other things; the public might have no choice, but to take notice.

The UK is like a car, with no brakes, & a drunk driver, careering down a twisty mountain road. It might make the corners initially, but they're going faster, & faster; & these individual crisis, show how close to the edge they are; & how they urgently need someone to take control.

[Sandstorm]

A woman I know well picked up 3 friends in her car and went to Bath for lunch on Tuesday. When they sat down to lunch, one of them announced she tested positive for Covid the day before. Now all 4 are sick.

The original bitch refuses to cancel her flight to Turkey tomorrow “I’m going on holiday!!”

[Insane_Homer]

[Ovals]

I'm still surprised how quiet/nonchalant the media coverage is about the Covid number increases.
I know that thanks to vaccinations the number of deaths has greatly reduced, but 150 people dying a day is still a high number, and a lot of families impacted. And we that those who don't die spend long times in hospital (7000 people in hospital currently) and there are the long covid concerns.

And it's not like there are any issues around NHS and the numbers of nurses and GPs.....

But what I'm astonished by is that there still isn't more research, and more insistence on research, on why it's affecting the UK population so much worse. General health of the population and levels of obesity are clearly one contributing factor, but there has to be more to it, considering the difference in casualty rates.

This government is lucky we live in a Trumpian age: one day the issue is pig farmers, then it's petrol delivery, yesterday it was the giant government screw ups on handling the pandemic, today it's the GP numbers and tomorrow it'll be transport/logistics issues again.
Shit washed away with more shit and then more shit - the question is if the drain will ever get blocked for some of it to actually stick?

It s odd how the media are giving the Government a free pass on the Covid figures - there should be much more pressure on them to explain why we're performing so much worse than the rest of europe - and then to improve what we're doing - and save some lives,

[Slick]

I'm still surprised how quiet/nonchalant the media coverage is about the Covid number increases.
I know that thanks to vaccinations the number of deaths has greatly reduced, but 150 people dying a day is still a high number, and a lot of families impacted. And we that those who don't die spend long times in hospital (7000 people in hospital currently) and there are the long covid concerns.

And it's not like there are any issues around NHS and the numbers of nurses and GPs.....

But what I'm astonished by is that there still isn't more research, and more insistence on research, on why it's affecting the UK population so much worse. General health of the population and levels of obesity are clearly one contributing factor, but there has to be more to it, considering the difference in casualty rates.

This government is lucky we live in a Trumpian age: one day the issue is pig farmers, then it's petrol delivery, yesterday it was the giant government screw ups on handling the pandemic, today it's the GP numbers and tomorrow it'll be transport/logistics issues again.
Shit washed away with more shit and then more shit - the question is if the drain will ever get blocked for some of it to actually stick?

It s odd how the media are giving the Government a free pass on the Covid figures - there should be much more pressure on them to explain why we're performing so much worse than the rest of europe - and then to improve what we're doing - and save some lives,

I think the truth is that few people care any longer. People just want to get on with it.

[I like neeps]

Conversative MP stabbed at his mps surgery in constituency. Ffs that is appalling.

Maybe we should change the total to UK politics thread.

[salanya]

I'm still surprised how quiet/nonchalant the media coverage is about the Covid number increases.
I know that thanks to vaccinations the number of deaths has greatly reduced, but 150 people dying a day is still a high number, and a lot of families impacted. And we that those who don't die spend long times in hospital (7000 people in hospital currently) and there are the long covid concerns.

And it's not like there are any issues around NHS and the numbers of nurses and GPs.....

But what I'm astonished by is that there still isn't more research, and more insistence on research, on why it's affecting the UK population so much worse. General health of the population and levels of obesity are clearly one contributing factor, but there has to be more to it, considering the difference in casualty rates.

This government is lucky we live in a Trumpian age: one day the issue is pig farmers, then it's petrol delivery, yesterday it was the giant government screw ups on handling the pandemic, today it's the GP numbers and tomorrow it'll be transport/logistics issues again.
Shit washed away with more shit and then more shit - the question is if the drain will ever get blocked for some of it to actually stick?

It s odd how the media are giving the Government a free pass on the Covid figures - there should be much more pressure on them to explain why we're performing so much worse than the rest of europe - and then to improve what we're doing - and save some lives,

I think the truth is that few people care any longer. People just want to get on with it.

People don't care much because they don't see much. We're not seeing people on ventilators anymore, or crying nurses having a breakdown.
The media are scarily powerful in influencing people, and their behaviour.

[Ovals]

Conversative MP stabbed at his mps surgery in constituency. Ffs that is appalling.

Maybe we should change the total to UK politics thread.

That's shocking news - it sounds very serious, they sent in an air ambulance. Hope he survives and makes full recovery.

[dpedin]

Just the 45,000 cases reported today but who knows what the true number is given 43,000 false negatives were reported by the dodgy Immensa private lab in Wolverhampton over Sept/Oct? 410 cases per 100k of pop is apparently ok according to the Blonde Bumblecunt and we are on the right trajectory, whatever that is? Only averaging 120 deaths per day over previous 7 days so still not piling the bodies up high enough to warrant a mention on the news. Pandemic is over guys, woo hoo!

[Slick]

Just the 45,000 cases reported today but who knows what the true number is given 43,000 false negatives were reported by the dodgy Immensa private lab in Wolverhampton over Sept/Oct? 410 cases per 100k of pop is apparently ok according to the Blonde Bumblecunt and we are on the right trajectory, whatever that is? Only averaging 120 deaths per day over previous 7 days so still not piling the bodies up high enough to warrant a mention on the news. Pandemic is over guys, woo hoo!

Not being facetious, genuine question, what would you like to be done at this stage?

[dpedin]

Just the 45,000 cases reported today but who knows what the true number is given 43,000 false negatives were reported by the dodgy Immensa private lab in Wolverhampton over Sept/Oct? 410 cases per 100k of pop is apparently ok according to the Blonde Bumblecunt and we are on the right trajectory, whatever that is? Only averaging 120 deaths per day over previous 7 days so still not piling the bodies up high enough to warrant a mention on the news. Pandemic is over guys, woo hoo!

Not being facetious, genuine question, what would you like to be done at this stage?

The facetious but accurate answer would be not to start from here! In many ways the horse has bolted because of our Gov PH, or lack of it, strategy but in answer I would suggest probably what most other countries are doing to keep case numbers down? Simple proven public health mitigations like mandatory mask wearing on public transport and in enclosed areas, better ventilation and filtration in enclosed areas including schools/colleges/Unis, increase the vaccine uptake, have started vaccinated kids earlier, roll out vaccine to younger kids, etc. I would also include a vaccine passport for entry into pubs, clubs and indoor venues.

The gov messaging of 'get back into the office', 'pandemic has finished', etc has been awful along with the images of cabinet meeting full of ministers without a single one wearing a mask, etc because 'they weren't strangers' has sent out completely the wrong message in terms of controlling community transmission of covid. You would almost think that they were trying to attain herd immunity through infection rather than through vaccination which is a dangerous strategy for a virus we still don't know the longer term health implications of. With a covid death rate of 7-10 times that of flu it is an erroneous comparison despite what many in Gov are trying to have us believe ie Patel this morning. 'Having to live with covid' in effect means that a large number of folk will die with covid unless we get more folk vaccinated and, for those more at risk, get their boosters.

[salanya]

Just the 45,000 cases reported today but who knows what the true number is given 43,000 false negatives were reported by the dodgy Immensa private lab in Wolverhampton over Sept/Oct? 410 cases per 100k of pop is apparently ok according to the Blonde Bumblecunt and we are on the right trajectory, whatever that is? Only averaging 120 deaths per day over previous 7 days so still not piling the bodies up high enough to warrant a mention on the news. Pandemic is over guys, woo hoo!

Not being facetious, genuine question, what would you like to be done at this stage?

I'd like the media and politicians to still report this properly, and to reiterate the message that this isn't over, so for the health and safety of everybody, to still get the basics in (washing hands, face mask inside in public spaces, keeping away from others if any symptoms).

Not scaremongering, there is other serious news as well; the vaccinations mean that the worst is behind us and we do have to get on with life as much as possibly. But emphasise this needs to be done safely, otherwise there are still severe potential consequences.
And let's still have some reality coverage: over 100 people dying a day on average, over 7000 people in hospital, people on ventilators, nurses stressed and stretched. The NHS is in trouble, and winter is still to come.
And let's have some honesty: the UK is suffering much more severely than the rest of Western Europe - questions should be asked and answered.

[Slick]

Just the 45,000 cases reported today but who knows what the true number is given 43,000 false negatives were reported by the dodgy Immensa private lab in Wolverhampton over Sept/Oct? 410 cases per 100k of pop is apparently ok according to the Blonde Bumblecunt and we are on the right trajectory, whatever that is? Only averaging 120 deaths per day over previous 7 days so still not piling the bodies up high enough to warrant a mention on the news. Pandemic is over guys, woo hoo!

Not being facetious, genuine question, what would you like to be done at this stage?

The facetious but accurate answer would be not to start from here! In many ways the horse has bolted because of our Gov PH, or lack of it, strategy but in answer I would suggest probably what most other countries are doing to keep case numbers down? Simple proven public health mitigations like mandatory mask wearing on public transport and in enclosed areas, better ventilation and filtration in enclosed areas including schools/colleges/Unis, increase the vaccine uptake, have started vaccinated kids earlier, roll out vaccine to younger kids, etc. I would also include a vaccine passport for entry into pubs, clubs and indoor venues.

The gov messaging of 'get back into the office', 'pandemic has finished', etc has been awful along with the images of cabinet meeting full of ministers without a single one wearing a mask, etc because 'they weren't strangers' has sent out completely the wrong message in terms of controlling community transmission of covid. You would almost think that they were trying to attain herd immunity through infection rather than through vaccination which is a dangerous strategy for a virus we still don't know the longer term health implications of. With a covid death rate of 7-10 times that of flu it is an erroneous comparison despite what many in Gov are trying to have us believe ie Patel this morning. 'Having to live with covid' in effect means that a large number of folk will die with covid unless we get more folk vaccinated and, for those more at risk, get their boosters.

Thanks (and Salanya). The horse has indeed bolted, we are not going to get people back into masks, particularly down South - I’m off with the family to London tomorrow and dreading it to be honest.

I just don’t know why they dropped the basic stuff, there doesn’t seem to be significant numbers of people moaning about it up here. Although in fairness, the obvious come back to that is that our figures have been equally shite throughout. I guess there are just sections of society that have given up

[dpedin]

Not being facetious, genuine question, what would you like to be done at this stage?

The facetious but accurate answer would be not to start from here! In many ways the horse has bolted because of our Gov PH, or lack of it, strategy but in answer I would suggest probably what most other countries are doing to keep case numbers down? Simple proven public health mitigations like mandatory mask wearing on public transport and in enclosed areas, better ventilation and filtration in enclosed areas including schools/colleges/Unis, increase the vaccine uptake, have started vaccinated kids earlier, roll out vaccine to younger kids, etc. I would also include a vaccine passport for entry into pubs, clubs and indoor venues.

The gov messaging of 'get back into the office', 'pandemic has finished', etc has been awful along with the images of cabinet meeting full of ministers without a single one wearing a mask, etc because 'they weren't strangers' has sent out completely the wrong message in terms of controlling community transmission of covid. You would almost think that they were trying to attain herd immunity through infection rather than through vaccination which is a dangerous strategy for a virus we still don't know the longer term health implications of. With a covid death rate of 7-10 times that of flu it is an erroneous comparison despite what many in Gov are trying to have us believe ie Patel this morning. 'Having to live with covid' in effect means that a large number of folk will die with covid unless we get more folk vaccinated and, for those more at risk, get their boosters.

Thanks (and Salanya). The horse has indeed bolted, we are not going to get people back into masks, particularly down South - I’m off with the family to London tomorrow and dreading it to be honest.

I just don’t know why they dropped the basic stuff, there doesn’t seem to be significant numbers of people moaning about it up here. Although in fairness, the obvious come back to that is that our figures have been equally shite throughout. I guess there are just sections of society that have given up

The game changer was letting the Delta variant come into the country unchecked. It is many times more transmissible than the original covid variant. Instead of trying to limit the spread of Delta it was almost the opposite and we let it take a real stronghold in the community. Scotland hasn't been much better than rest of UK but does have lower death counts on all three measures than England - within 28 days, death cert and excess deaths. We have also had a bit better success in vaccination rates and this seems to have an impact. My worry is that England are a few weeks behind Scotland - whilst we have peaked in cases we are still seeing the death time lag this has still to hit England and with the number of cases then the deaths will increase over next few weeks.

Another worry is that the lack of PH mitigations won't just let covid cases and deaths continue but also allow flu and other respiratory diseases, for which we haven't built up immunity, to spread freely over the winter. RSV in young kids is already peaking at over 40% of average and earlier in the year than normal and the worry is the NHS, already at breaking point, is going to collapse if flu, etc take hold. It would make a lot of sense to re-introduce basic PH mitigations to prevent this happening but I suspect the politics of mask wearing will get in the way of a sensible and pragmatic PH approach.

[GogLais]

Not being facetious, genuine question, what would you like to be done at this stage?

The facetious but accurate answer would be not to start from here! In many ways the horse has bolted because of our Gov PH, or lack of it, strategy but in answer I would suggest probably what most other countries are doing to keep case numbers down? Simple proven public health mitigations like mandatory mask wearing on public transport and in enclosed areas, better ventilation and filtration in enclosed areas including schools/colleges/Unis, increase the vaccine uptake, have started vaccinated kids earlier, roll out vaccine to younger kids, etc. I would also include a vaccine passport for entry into pubs, clubs and indoor venues.

The gov messaging of 'get back into the office', 'pandemic has finished', etc has been awful along with the images of cabinet meeting full of ministers without a single one wearing a mask, etc because 'they weren't strangers' has sent out completely the wrong message in terms of controlling community transmission of covid. You would almost think that they were trying to attain herd immunity through infection rather than through vaccination which is a dangerous strategy for a virus we still don't know the longer term health implications of. With a covid death rate of 7-10 times that of flu it is an erroneous comparison despite what many in Gov are trying to have us believe ie Patel this morning. 'Having to live with covid' in effect means that a large number of folk will die with covid unless we get more folk vaccinated and, for those more at risk, get their boosters.

Thanks (and Salanya). The horse has indeed bolted, we are not going to get people back into masks, particularly down South

Same round here. Had to use Merseyrail at a busy time last week and almost literally nobody else apart from us was wearing a mask, in spite of the signs saying that they should be worn. The idea that you might help others as well as yourself by wearing one obviously has no traction.

[Sandstorm]

Same round here. Had to use Merseyrail at a busy time last week and almost literally nobody else apart from us was wearing a mask, in spite of the signs saying that they should be worn. The idea that you might help others as well as yourself by wearing one obviously has no traction.

From Boris down, the message has been: "Get two jabs, you're bullet-proof!"

[Niegs]

Australian politician not wanting Ted Cruz' love:

[tc27]

Not sure its masks that matter as much (anecdotally proven by areas of the UK with tougher mask rules like Scotland having higher rates currently) its pretty much the return to 'normal' behaviour that much more common in the UK than the continent.

I doubt either the national or devolved governments have the courage yet to ban indoor gatherings or mass public events - they may be forced to if the current trend doesn't start to show signs of peaking.

It is worth considering we are no where near the number of hospitalizations, ventilations or deaths we faced in previous peaks so the vaccine effect is still stunning.

[Slick]

Same round here. Had to use Merseyrail at a busy time last week and almost literally nobody else apart from us was wearing a mask, in spite of the signs saying that they should be worn. The idea that you might help others as well as yourself by wearing one obviously has no traction.

From Boris down, the message has been: "Get two jabs, you're bullet-proof!"

I've just got off the train down to London. The girl behind us had a call from her boss:

"yeah, it's been pretty tough, I had to go back because the whole family had COVID and I needed to help out. As a precaution I'll stay out of the office this week.

"Not yet, but I've got some lateral flow tests at my flat so I'll do one when I get back"

You stupid fucking bint, you're on a fucking packed train, and not wearing a mask the whole time. My wife is now paranoid as we were meant to be going to see some elderly relatives, albeit outside and disctanced.

[JM2K6]

Not sure its masks that matter as much (anecdotally proven by areas of the UK with tougher mask rules like Scotland having higher rates currently) its pretty much the return to 'normal' behaviour that much more common in the UK than the continent.

I doubt either the national or devolved governments have the courage yet to ban indoor gatherings or mass public events - they may be forced to if the current trend doesn't start to show signs of peaking.

It is worth considering we are no where near the number of hospitalizations, ventilations or deaths we faced in previous peaks so the vaccine effect is still stunning.

It's not that straightforward, as it's also about crowded indoor spaces, large events, and other factors. Where it's been possible to do a direct comparison, e.g. the Indian study on villages with and without masks, the difference has been stark.

Agree the vaccine effect is excellent, but it's a numbers game - a huge number of infections means breakthrough cases are rising, we're running at 85% bed occupancy now and that's before any winter wave of other illnesses hits. We're not in good shape.

[convoluted]

Given that this thread has prompted 300 pages, the following 45-minute discussion should be of intense interest to all.

However, it punctures much of the entrenched dogma expressed here.
Hence, many will not want to even listen.

But should you have a child, or any family member not at risk and you are thinking of getting them jabbed, then you need to at least give some consideration to what you will hear.
Given that early treatments are so effective (but which are belittled for both political and profit reasons), and given the comments on the vaccines, I now wish I'd not had my double dose 4 months ago.

No, the speakers are not Q-Anon White Supremacist Conspiracy Theorists ... they are introduced at the start. One was critical in developing the vaccine, another has 'arguably treated more covid patients than anyone in the world' and so on ... ignore what they say at the peril of your child-teenager whom you are lining up for the shots.

[JM2K6]

I also wish you hadn't had your double dose. Covid conspiracy theorists are a fucking threat to public health.

[Mahoney]

Did a quick check on two panel members:

Robert Malone: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arc ... ic/619734/

And Richard Urso, the Hydroxychloroquine doc. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22446-z "We found that treatment with hydroxychloroquine is associated with increased mortality in COVID-19 patients, and there is no benefit of chloroquine. Findings have unclear generalizability to outpatients, children, pregnant women, and people with comorbidities."

[Enzedder]

8 doctors, Convoluted??? 8???

I would rather listen to the 100,000 who are strongly in favour.

[dpedin]

In Scotland c4.2m people have been given at least one dose of vaccine, 5 people have died as a direct result of the vaccine, 11,260+ have died from covid. I prefer the odds of having the vaccine and not dying from covid.

[tabascoboy]

Quite a few posts there to read, the tl;dr is the booster program needs to kick into high gear fast

[Rinkals]

I don't doubt that there will be resurgences of the virus once winter sets in and people move indoors.

The hope is that the levels of vaccinated will be high enough to mitigate this.

[Paddington Bear]

I think the point with the UK is the move indoors has already happened. The messaging on ventilation has never got through and people just plain don't like being cold. Not a great recipe.

[dpedin]

I think the point with the UK is the move indoors has already happened. The messaging on ventilation has never got through and people just plain don't like being cold. Not a great recipe.

Almost 50,000 cases in UK yesterday and things look like it is getting worse. I agree the move to indoor entertainment is underway and the increase in cases will lead to a steady increase in cases over next few weeks. We will also see increase in other flu/respiratory viruses spread given our drop in immunity to them. With 26% of the pop still not vaccinated - mix of kids and those who for a variety of reasons are eligible but haven't taken the vaccine - means there is still a huge pool of people who could still catch covid. The gov aim of achieving herd immunity through infection as well as vaccine is going well - It's going to be another difficult winter.

[GogLais]

I think the point with the UK is the move indoors has already happened. The messaging on ventilation has never got through and people just plain don't like being cold. Not a great recipe.

Almost 50,000 cases in UK yesterday and things look like it is getting worse. I agree the move to indoor entertainment is underway and the increase in cases will lead to a steady increase in cases over next few weeks. We will also see increase in other flu/respiratory viruses spread given our drop in immunity to them. With 26% of the pop still not vaccinated - mix of kids and those who for a variety of reasons are eligible but haven't taken the vaccine - means there is still a huge pool of people who could still catch covid. The gov aim of achieving herd immunity through infection as well as vaccine is going well - It's going to be another difficult winter.

Indeed. About 40k cases per day over three months is getting on for 6% of the total population. Some of those will be people that have been vaccinated (like my son and his wife who have just had it) but then the 40k is bound to be (substantially?) less than the real figure.
It's interesting - some friends of ours have been far more cautious than we have. We haven't been reckless but have been on several UK holidays and travelled a fair bit by train over the last few months and have got away with it. I don't know whether we've been lucky or whether they've locked themselves away far more that they needed to. Roll on the booster jab!

[tabascoboy]

Guess new mutations will be a thing every few months

Covid-19: New mutation of Delta variant under close watch in UK

Officials are keeping a close watch on a new descendant of the Delta variant of Covid that is causing a growing number of infections. Delta is the UK's dominant variant, but latest official data suggests 6% of Covid cases that have been genetically sequenced are of a new type.

AY.4.2, which some are calling "Delta Plus", contains mutations that might give the virus survival advantages. Tests are under way to understand how much of a threat it may pose. Experts say it is unlikely to take off in a big way or escape current vaccines.

It is not yet considered a variant of concern, or a variant under investigation - the categories assigned to variants and the level of risk associated with them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58965650

[SaintK]

I think the point with the UK is the move indoors has already happened. The messaging on ventilation has never got through and people just plain don't like being cold. Not a great recipe.

Almost 50,000 cases in UK yesterday and things look like it is getting worse. I agree the move to indoor entertainment is underway and the increase in cases will lead to a steady increase in cases over next few weeks. We will also see increase in other flu/respiratory viruses spread given our drop in immunity to them. With 26% of the pop still not vaccinated - mix of kids and those who for a variety of reasons are eligible but haven't taken the vaccine - means there is still a huge pool of people who could still catch covid. The gov aim of achieving herd immunity through infection as well as vaccine is going well - It's going to be another difficult winter.

Indeed. About 40k cases per day over three months is getting on for 6% of the total population. Some of those will be people that have been vaccinated (like my son and his wife who have just had it) but then the 40k is bound to be (substantially?) less than the real figure.
It's interesting - some friends of ours have been far more cautious than we have. We haven't been reckless but have been on several UK holidays and travelled a fair bit by train over the last few months and have got away with it. I don't know whether we've been lucky or whether they've locked themselves away far more that they needed to. Roll on the booster jab!

........and rising, Not a good look at all!!!

The UK has reported its highest number of Covid deaths for seven months, with 223 deaths recorded within 28 days of a positive test for the virus.

The daily death rate, which has not been as high since 9 March, brought the weekly toll to 911, a near-15% rise on the week.

A further 43,738 coronavirus cases were reported, down slightly on Monday’s figure, though daily hospitalisations continued to rise, reaching 921, up 10% on the week.

After a bumpy September, confirmed cases have risen steadily in October with Covid rates soaring among largely unvaccinated secondary schoolchildren, and infections spilling over into older, more vulnerable age groups.

The spread of infections beyond younger people has driven up cases in those aged 50 and over, a trend that has started to push up hospitalisations and death rates.

[tabascoboy]

The way things are going there's every chance of another "do we have to cancel Christmas dilemma?"

[salanya]

See, this annoys me:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58973185

'No 10 is keeping a close on eye on rising Covid cases'
'Boris is expecting a hard winter'
'We'll only go to Plan B if things get really bad'

That's just so empty and passive. Why not try and communicate, and at least attempt to avoid things getting worse?!

Some simple messages: 'cases are rising, remember to wear a face mask on public transport', 'cases are rising amongst children, make sure everybody washes hands regularly and coughs in a tissue', 'if you're going back into work, remember your hands, face, space'. 'We are keeping an eye on things, and encourage everyone to do those basics again to avoid catching Covid and passing it on'.

I know we all know these things, but the message has been that we're getting back to normal, and it's been a testing period so people look for the hope and security to think it's all over.
But we're not there yet, and we've been saying for months that winter will get bad. So why not communicate how we can try and prevent it, and get people engaged with the subject again. Not all will, and there's no need for panic stations, but just message the basics to reaffirm the seriousness of the disease and the difficult place the NHS is in.

We need to live with Covid, so let's do that, rather than pretending it's not really there (until things get really bad).

[Insane_Homer]

“I think our approach is working” Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng tells BBCBreakfast

as nearly 1,000 a week are still dying from it... &