So, coronavirus...

[Line6 HXFX]

The Mrs ward has gone Covid again. Thought wesaw the back of this.
Brings back memories of the worry and stress of last time, and to think she did it with little or no PPE, no vaccinations and testing, with patients coughing all around here and the air thick of it.

You honestly don't fucking deserve her. Don't worry, I don't either.

Brave, dedicated, committed, beautiful woman my Mrs, as are they all.

[Calculon]

Prioritising cost over quality assurance. Group think, overconfidence in your procedure.

You're also making the assumption that someone in government understands the numbers. It may have taken a week or ten days to convince them and then the same length of time to convince their boss. There's also an assumption that someone in government is looking at trends in this way. It was amateur statisticians on twitter that brought a focus to it, not government analysis.

I'm assuming someone at the the actual lab doing the testing is recording, archiving and doing some basic analysis of the results

Wasn’t it a new thing to this company that they were completely unsuited to doing?

Idk. For us it was standard to record the results and analyse them. And by analyse I just mean taking a look at them to see if there were any obvious trends/strange results.

[Biffer]

I'm assuming someone at the the actual lab doing the testing is recording, archiving and doing some basic analysis of the results

Wasn’t it a new thing to this company that they were completely unsuited to doing?

Idk. For us it was standard to record the results and analyse them. And by analyse I just mean taking a look at them to see if there were any obvious trends/strange results.

Given the company didn’t exist three months before they got a £120million contract I’m going to say it was new to them

[Calculon]

I don't really see the relevance, if the lab is new or has been around for several years, I thought it was something that was done as standard. Again, all the PCR and other ID tests we did was on a much smaller scale so it is easier to keep an eye on things. I was also slightly paranoid in ensuring I got the right results as getting it wrong, for some of the tests, could have fatal consequences.

[dpedin]

I don't really see the relevance, if the lab is new or has been around for several years, I thought it was something that was done as standard. Again, all the PCR and other ID tests we did was on a much smaller scale so it is easier to keep an eye on things. I was also slightly paranoid in ensuring I got the right results as getting it wrong, for some of the tests, could have fatal consequences.

Absolutely! I suspect that having 43,000 false negatives will lead to a number of avoidable deaths, it will just be difficult to prove which deaths. Any lab large or small would have all the QA systems and processes in place as standard and wouldn't have let something so bad on this scale go unnoticed for so long. You would also assume that the accreditation process would ensure the QA systems existed and sought evidence they worked before giving them a stamp of approval. You would also assume that the QA and accreditation requirements would be specified in the contracting process and the lab would have to demonstrate it had everything in place in order to win the contract and that there would be a process of due diligence run by the purchaser to ensure this was done.

Lots of questions to be answered, from procurement onwards. It would be interesting to see how rigorous and speedy this is investigated and how well it is reported. I suspect the Gov will try and hide all this away.

[fishfoodie]

I don't really see the relevance, if the lab is new or has been around for several years, I thought it was something that was done as standard. Again, all the PCR and other ID tests we did was on a much smaller scale so it is easier to keep an eye on things. I was also slightly paranoid in ensuring I got the right results as getting it wrong, for some of the tests, could have fatal consequences.

You seem to be labouring under the misapprehension that the company was setup to provide a robust service for the Public ?

Boy, have I got news for you !

This company; like dozens of others; was setup to gouge the taxpayer, & provide millions to whatever scumbags set it up. Any benefit for the public was incidental; & setting up a quality system that tracked the accuracy of the test results, was plainly regarded as not a priority. The history of UK Track & Trace can be summed up in a single word; "incompetence" !

... or two, if you want to include; "Corrupt"

[Ymx]

Jesus. Not sure Super Cindy has positioned this so well.

[Biffer]

I don't really see the relevance, if the lab is new or has been around for several years, I thought it was something that was done as standard. Again, all the PCR and other ID tests we did was on a much smaller scale so it is easier to keep an eye on things. I was also slightly paranoid in ensuring I got the right results as getting it wrong, for some of the tests, could have fatal consequences.

Absolutely! I suspect that having 43,000 false negatives will lead to a number of avoidable deaths, it will just be difficult to prove which deaths. Any lab large or small would have all the QA systems and processes in place as standard and wouldn't have let something so bad on this scale go unnoticed for so long. You would also assume that the accreditation process would ensure the QA systems existed and sought evidence they worked before giving them a stamp of approval. You would also assume that the QA and accreditation requirements would be specified in the contracting process and the lab would have to demonstrate it had everything in place in order to win the contract and that there would be a process of due diligence run by the purchaser to ensure this was done.

Lots of questions to be answered, from procurement onwards. It would be interesting to see how rigorous and speedy this is investigated and how well it is reported. I suspect the Gov will try and hide all this away.

There's a lot of assumptions being made about the professionalism of these companies set up at very short notice in something of a panic.

And it'll be more than re than 43,000. If you assume an R number of 5 these people will have caused another 200-250,000 cases as they thought they were OK to go out, go to work and socialise.

[tc27]

Two days of fairly substantial drops in cases for the UK - reasonable to hope that the current wave has peaked.

[convoluted]

Jesus. Not sure Super Cindy has positioned this so well.

By Xmas, the new social divide will be Boosted damning the Unboosted.

[Sandstorm]

Two days of fairly substantial drops in cases for the UK - reasonable to hope that the current wave has peaked.

Half term. It'll bounce again in 3 weeks time.

I always said it was the children. Even when I knew it was the bears.......

[tc27]

Two days of fairly substantial drops in cases for the UK - reasonable to hope that the current wave has peaked.

Half term. It'll bounce again in 3 weeks time.

I always said it was the children. Even when I knew it was the bears.......

Surely too soon for that to become obvious in testing - and testing numbers have remained stable.

[dpedin]

Two days of fairly substantial drops in cases for the UK - reasonable to hope that the current wave has peaked.

Half term. It'll bounce again in 3 weeks time.

I always said it was the children. Even when I knew it was the bears.......

Surely too soon for that to become obvious in testing - and testing numbers have remained stable.

A trend of 2 days is not a trend unfortunately, however 7 day average has also fallen a little. We need to see about 7 days of decline in a row to be sure there is a real trend. Agree that schools being off for half term could probably be driving rates down. Unfortunately hospitalisations and deaths will already be baked in and expect to see them rise over next few weeks.

[tc27]

To temper my earlier optimism my wife just got back from an awful shift in her ward. She's now seen so many die from Covid that she can recognise the pattern very early on - people who have it but seem 'ok' but very quickly require more and more oxygen until they are so deprived they end up ripping the mask off because they are desperate to try and breathe more and think the mask (that's keeping them alive) is stopping it. Past a certain point death becomes inevitable and the last contact with families in the best case scenario is via a tablet (she had someone die for non covid reasons in the 'safe' part of the ward and remarked how 'nice' it was to have a death with the family present to way it should be - sounds a bit harsh but nurses are pretty hardened to this)

Unfortunately most of her patients are fully vaccinated but because of there age are not considered worth sending to ITU to be ventilated.

Anyway please encourage anyone you know who is eligible to get the booster.

[Slick]

To temper my earlier optimism my wife just got back from an awful shift in her ward. She's now seen so many die from Covid that she can recognise the pattern very early on - people who have it but seem 'ok' but very quickly require more and more oxygen until they are so deprived they end up ripping the mask off because they are desperate to try and breathe more and think the mask (that's keeping them alive) is stopping it. Past a certain point death becomes inevitable and the last contact with families in the best case scenario is via a tablet (she had someone die for non covid reasons in the 'safe' part of the ward and remarked how 'nice' it was to have a death with the family present to way it should be - sounds a bit harsh but nurses are pretty hardened to this)

Unfortunately most of her patients are fully vaccinated but because of there age are not considered worth sending to ITU to be ventilated.

Anyway please encourage anyone you know who is eligible to get the booster.

This is horrendous.

[dpedin]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -pcr-tests

Immensa Lab scandal just gets worse and worse. Why the hell is Immensa still providing PCR testing, even in other of their labs? Why is our Gov trying to protect a private lab, set up only months before, who they gave a dodgy £112m deal? Why is our Gov denying that telling 43,000 folk with covid that they didn't have covid hasn't had an impact on infection rates in the region involved? Where is the urgent investigation? This just stinks.

[dpedin]

Interesting thread of impact of Immensa Lab failures.

[Sandstorm]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -pcr-tests

Immensa Lab scandal just gets worse and worse. Why the hell is Immensa still providing PCR testing, even in other of their labs? Why is our Gov trying to protect a private lab, set up only months before, who they gave a dodgy £112m deal? Why is our Gov denying that telling 43,000 folk with covid that they didn't have covid hasn't had an impact on infection rates in the region involved? Where is the urgent investigation? This just stinks.

If only we had a group in this country who could stand up and shout loudly about it. Some sort of opposite-side Party to the one in power.......

[GogLais]

Re the booster - the system for getting it seems either very flexible or chaotic, take your pick. The six months from second jab expires this week for me. I’ve heard nothing from my GP practice or the NHS, the NHS webpage says ring 119 if you haven’t heard after six months and one week. On the off chance we rang a local health centre and were told we could come in today for one.
There needs to be a lot more publicity about this and other precautions, not just ministers mentioning it in passing in interviews. Has the added benefit of a bit more money for MP’s chums in advertising.

[dpedin]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -pcr-tests

Immensa Lab scandal just gets worse and worse. Why the hell is Immensa still providing PCR testing, even in other of their labs? Why is our Gov trying to protect a private lab, set up only months before, who they gave a dodgy £112m deal? Why is our Gov denying that telling 43,000 folk with covid that they didn't have covid hasn't had an impact on infection rates in the region involved? Where is the urgent investigation? This just stinks.

If only we had a group in this country who could stand up and shout loudly about it. Some sort of opposite-side Party to the one in power.......

They are shouting but I think we have already found that the current Gov doesn't give a shit as there is no chance their party of Brexit Ultras MPs are going to vote against them. Even the feckin Speaker of the House can't get them to abide by the usual rules and protocols re the budget. They don't give a fuck and when they are held to account they then go after those involved - the judiciary/Supreme Court spring to mind. The Immensa Lab scandal is another that they will ignore and promise a report which will take months/years and they know everyone will have forgotten about when it finally reports.

[tc27]

Another encouraging data point today indicating a decline - for context:

Edit - English data only but my impression is the data from Wales/Scot/NI is showing similar declines.



Also strikes me that the breathless and panicky commentary during the period of rising daily infections seems to go completely unchallenged even when events prove it to be premature - and yet those same voices will be uncritically repeated the next time the infection rate rises.

[Sandstorm]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -pcr-tests

Immensa Lab scandal just gets worse and worse. Why the hell is Immensa still providing PCR testing, even in other of their labs? Why is our Gov trying to protect a private lab, set up only months before, who they gave a dodgy £112m deal? Why is our Gov denying that telling 43,000 folk with covid that they didn't have covid hasn't had an impact on infection rates in the region involved? Where is the urgent investigation? This just stinks.

If only we had a group in this country who could stand up and shout loudly about it. Some sort of opposite-side Party to the one in power.......

They are shouting but I think we have already found that the current Gov doesn't give a shit as there is no chance their party of Brexit Ultras MPs are going to vote against them. Even the feckin Speaker of the House can't get them to abide by the usual rules and protocols re the budget. They don't give a fuck and when they are held to account they then go after those involved - the judiciary/Supreme Court spring to mind. The Immensa Lab scandal is another that they will ignore and promise a report which will take months/years and they know everyone will have forgotten about when it finally reports.

Need mainstream Press to turn against them too.

[salanya]

Another encouraging data point today indicating a decline - for context:

Edit - English data only but my impression is the data from Wales/Scot/NI is showing similar declines.



Also strikes me that the breathless and panicky commentary during the period of rising daily infections seems to go completely unchallenged even when events prove it to be premature - and yet those same voices will be uncritically repeated the next time the infection rate rises.

There is no need for panic, but there is a need for action to prevent further hurt and issues.
Great that daily infection numbers are below 50k again, but 40k daily cases is still a huge amount. And the consequences of that are still ongoing and coming: 3 weeks ago there were around 6500 people in hospital, whereas now it's 8700 and rising. Today the daily death report is 263. We may be desensitised to these numbers, but that's a lot of people.

By next week, the start of November, we may well have 10k people in hospitals again, and that's with the winter season still to come, with warnings that flu and similar illnesses will hit harder this winter.
The NHS was already struggling before Covid, and now they've had nearly 2 years of running flat out, with more to come.

The concerns aren't about Covid on its own, it's the effect on a service that is already struggling and understaffed. This will impact all other care and healthcare services, from hip operations to cancer care to paediatrics, which is at this stage (and for a long time to come) the biggest problem.

[dpedin]

Another encouraging data point today indicating a decline - for context:

Edit - English data only but my impression is the data from Wales/Scot/NI is showing similar declines.



Also strikes me that the breathless and panicky commentary during the period of rising daily infections seems to go completely unchallenged even when events prove it to be premature - and yet those same voices will be uncritically repeated the next time the infection rate rises.

There is no need for panic, but there is a need for action to prevent further hurt and issues.
Great that daily infection numbers are below 50k again, but 40k daily cases is still a huge amount. And the consequences of that are still ongoing and coming: 3 weeks ago there were around 6500 people in hospital, whereas now it's 8700 and rising. Today the daily death report is 263. We may be desensitised to these numbers, but that's a lot of people.

By next week, the start of November, we may well have 10k people in hospitals again, and that's with the winter season still to come, with warnings that flu and similar illnesses will hit harder this winter.
The NHS was already struggling before Covid, and now they've had nearly 2 years of running flat out, with more to come.

The concerns aren't about Covid on its own, it's the effect on a service that is already struggling and understaffed. This will impact all other care and healthcare services, from hip operations to cancer care to paediatrics, which is at this stage (and for a long time to come) the biggest problem.

This!

Also you still need 7 days of drop in numbers to say if there is a trend, not sure from the graph if the 'case nos/case nos 7 days a week before' shows this - can't tell from graphic.

UK 7 day average for deaths is still running at 140 which is still 980 per week and over 50,000 per annum. Excess deaths last week running at 1,668 per week more than 5 year ave pre pandemic. All this would suggest we have a long way to go to get out of the woods. Let see how winter goes.

Sounds to me like the 'breathless and panicky commentary' has a point?

[Sandstorm]

1000 died per day in January and the country rightly went mental.
246 died today and no-one seems to care.

It’s very weird and very sad.

[salanya]

1000 died per day in January and the country rightly went mental.
246 died today and no-one seems to care.

It’s very weird and very sad.

Yeah, we're really desensitised to the numbers.
I stand by my previous comments that the media are mainly responsible for this: they stopped in large parts showing clips of hospital patients and NHS staff. And no, I don't want them to dramatise and scaremonger, but we have to be visually reminded from time to time that Covid has the potential to do huge damage to the human body, and see the impact of going on ventilators, the care it requires, the wider impact on the NHS etc.
Numbers and words are for information, but as a 21st century society we mostly need visuals to engage with a subject.

Obviously the government haven't helped, as the PR-game of vaccinations has finished now (as most western countries have caught up). They don't want to go back to any measures (and the costs of them), so this government's choice is to ignore or downplay, rather than focusing on messaging to keep vigilant and put us in the best position to avoid the return of Covid measures and casualties.

Of course we're all tired of Covid, and technically we all know (and most acknowledge) the realities of it. But if you're not reminded occassionally, it slowly fades in significance, and words and numbers no longer have the same impact.

[Happyhooker]

Also re testing numbers. It's half term and a huge amount of testing takes place in schools.

[shaggy]

1000 died per day in January and the country rightly went mental.
246 died today and no-one seems to care.

It’s very weird and very sad.

Yeah, we're really desensitised to the numbers.
I stand by my previous comments that the media are mainly responsible for this: they stopped in large parts showing clips of hospital patients and NHS staff. And no, I don't want them to dramatise and scaremonger, but we have to be visually reminded from time to time that Covid has the potential to do huge damage to the human body, and see the impact of going on ventilators, the care it requires, the wider impact on the NHS etc.
Numbers and words are for information, but as a 21st century society we mostly need visuals to engage with a subject.

Obviously the government haven't helped, as the PR-game of vaccinations has finished now (as most western countries have caught up). They don't want to go back to any measures (and the costs of them), so this government's choice is to ignore or downplay, rather than focusing on messaging to keep vigilant and put us in the best position to avoid the return of Covid measures and casualties.

Of course we're all tired of Covid, and technically we all know (and most acknowledge) the realities of it. But if you're not reminded occassionally, it slowly fades in significance, and words and numbers no longer have the same impact.

The media has stopped the reports inside hospitals because they are not generating hits. If they persist in stories that gain no traction they quickly lose their audience. It is a commercial decision in many cases.

[tc27]

1000 died per day in January and the country rightly went mental.
246 died today and no-one seems to care.

It’s very weird and very sad.

Yeah, we're really desensitised to the numbers.
I stand by my previous comments that the media are mainly responsible for this: they stopped in large parts showing clips of hospital patients and NHS staff. And no, I don't want them to dramatise and scaremonger, but we have to be visually reminded from time to time that Covid has the potential to do huge damage to the human body, and see the impact of going on ventilators, the care it requires, the wider impact on the NHS etc.
Numbers and words are for information, but as a 21st century society we mostly need visuals to engage with a subject.

Obviously the government haven't helped, as the PR-game of vaccinations has finished now (as most western countries have caught up). They don't want to go back to any measures (and the costs of them), so this government's choice is to ignore or downplay, rather than focusing on messaging to keep vigilant and put us in the best position to avoid the return of Covid measures and casualties.

Of course we're all tired of Covid, and technically we all know (and most acknowledge) the realities of it. But if you're not reminded occassionally, it slowly fades in significance, and words and numbers no longer have the same impact.

A couple of technical points - Tuesdays are always 'peak death' reporting day and include deaths from the days of the week - again the 7 day rate is the one that matters here.

Secondly there has being no real decline in absolute testing numbers as of yesterday so its not that.

We can quite reasonably talk about tougher rules for masks and vaccination passports but do the current levels of deaths and infections require a return to spring/winter 2020 style social distancing and the enormous economic and social costs of that? Does anyone have a number in mind?

Again to clarify- I am not one of those who thinks there isn't a problem - as I said before I support mask rules and vaccine passports for public events. However the only proven way to decisively drive down infections and deaths is a full lockdown and social distancing measures - how many people actually support this?

[salanya]

TC27: nobody (here) is saying we need to go back to lockdown measures.

Obviously we are in a much better situation than we were 18 or 9 months ago, with the vaccine the biggest contributor to that.
Several of us are pointing out that despite this, the numbers are still high, and to protect ourselves, others and the NHS specifically, the community at large should be actively engaged and encouraged to take Covid seriously still, and adhere to the basic hygiene measures.
That way the numbers will be curbed more, fewer lives badly impacted, and we wouldn't even need to mention possibilities of any form of lockdown.

In summary: we got society and the economy going again, let's protect it by not ignoring Covid and its impact, but by taking it seriously and doing the basics well.

[dpedin]

TC27: nobody (here) is saying we need to go back to lockdown measures.

Obviously we are in a much better situation than we were 18 or 9 months ago, with the vaccine the biggest contributor to that.
Several of us are pointing out that despite this, the numbers are still high, and to protect ourselves, others and the NHS specifically, the community at large should be actively engaged and encouraged to take Covid seriously still, and adhere to the basic hygiene measures.
That way the numbers will be curbed more, fewer lives badly impacted, and we wouldn't even need to mention possibilities of any form of lockdown.

In summary: we got society and the economy going again, let's protect it by not ignoring Covid and its impact, but by taking it seriously and doing the basics well.

Exactly - it is this scaremongering about 'full lockdown' that is preventing a sensible approach and adoption of sensible and relatively simple PH mitigations. I am not sure if folk do this deliberately or through ignorance?

Wearing masks indoors/shops/transport, social distancing where possible, better ventilation (keeping doors and windows open where possible), working from home where possible, etc are all easy to do and don't have any real impact on day to day life. Its not stopping me living an almost 'normal' life. However this could be enough to stop covid cases and flu type bugs increasing over winter and thus stopping unbearable pressure on NHS. It would also be the best way of avoiding a 'full lockdown' which no-one wants. It would also be useful to have a full and functioning TT&T system that is spewing out 43,000 false negatives!

The only reason the Gov has not pushed for these simple measures is that its plan is to try and achieve herd immunity more quickly through infection within the younger age groups. Apart from being immoral and irresponsible this is dangerous when we have perfectly good and effective vaccines which if rolled out to everyone, kids included, and paired with the simple PH measures I mentioned would achieve a far better outcome quicker and more safely. It would also have less impact on the economy.

[dpedin]

Cases, hospitalisations, ICU and deaths all up today! 7 day average for deaths at 144 - 1,000 a week or 52,000 a year. 7 day average of cases is going slightly down but as expected 7 day average for deaths going up.

If the Blonde Bumblecunt is saying that there is nothing in these numbers that they didnt expect and are within their plans and therefore they are not going to implement further restrictions then this implies that they have planned for and are comfortable within 50k deaths a year? I can only assume the bodies aren't piling up high enough to take any actions to mitigate the spread? I hate to think what the actual number of deaths would need to be for them to trigger Plan B!

[Ymx]

It’s the kids !!

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ons-by-age

[Ymx]

[Ymx]

Half term. It'll bounce again in 3 weeks time.

I always said it was the children. Even when I knew it was the bears.......

Right you are. 7 times more prevalent, the pubescent spreading little bastards.

[fishfoodie]

Half term. It'll bounce again in 3 weeks time.

I always said it was the children. Even when I knew it was the bears.......

Right you are. 7 times more prevalent, the pubescent spreading little bastards.

This is why getting them vaccinated; or at least a decent chunk of them vaccinated; before sending them all back to school was a no-brainer.

Unfortunately; no-brain would be a significant improvement on those running the UK.

Irelands figures are still high; despite having had the over 12s approved, & a good uptake since late August.

[dpedin]

Half term. It'll bounce again in 3 weeks time.

I always said it was the children. Even when I knew it was the bears.......

Right you are. 7 times more prevalent, the pubescent spreading little bastards.

This is why getting them vaccinated; or at least a decent chunk of them vaccinated; before sending them all back to school was a no-brainer.

Unfortunately; no-brain would be a significant improvement on those running the UK.

Irelands figures are still high; despite having had the over 12s approved, & a good uptake since late August.

High case numbers in school age kids was always going to happen given we sent them back to school unvaccinated and with minimal or no PH mitigations. You would almost think it was premeditated way of achieving herd immunity via infection? However kids have parents and grandparents and with Delta variant this means that infection within households and relatives was pretty obvious. Chuck in a lab that was sending out 43,000 false negatives and a virus with an R of 7-10 and guess what! This is criminal negligence, nowhere else in the world, bar Brazil, is exposing its pop deliberately to a dangerous and relatively unknown virus in order to achieve pop immunity, which is never going to be achieved in this way. Is it any wonder we still have c1,000 deaths a week. Criminal.

[Ymx]

Obviously I’m not talking about the dodgy lab … But in terms of managing it once you’ve 90% vaccinated, (and ideally the 12-16’s covered), what actually is/was the other option apart from live with it?

There is no way this thing is not going to burn through our population. And possibly better it does sooner while the vaccinations are more effective.

[fishfoodie]

Obviously I’m not talking about the dodgy lab … But in terms of managing it once you’ve 90% vaccinated, (and ideally the 12-16’s covered), what actually is/was the other option apart from live with it?

There is no way this thing is not going to burn through our population. And possibly better it does sooner while the vaccinations are more effective.

Keep doing the simple PH measures that have done all the hard yards this far !

Let people work from home (Ireland, has now gone from aiming for this to reduce in Oct/Nov, to conceding it can't happen till Spring)

Businesses already have all the shields, masks, etc in place; so keep using them, & tell people that social distancing is still best if they have the space.

It's all about minimizing the risks where we a lot of the hard work is done; & then keep pushing vaccination, & start shooting the anti-vaxxer cunts scaring people*



* may not be completely legal; but we have to start thinking about doing it in a limited & specific way.

[Ymx]

But surely it’s not something we will be able to avoid. And it’s better to catch it now than later whilst vaccinations are most effective, and not to mention to catch it before the next dangerous strain inevitably comes along - and take the edge of that one.

Shooting anti vaxxers sounds like one way to keep the covid linked deaths lower.