So, coronavirus...

[TheNatalShark]

It's a really impotent line of attack to try and stick "gov are idiots because they are happy/accepting with/of current deaths from Covid" because as much as you want to couch a question mark at the end of it, in my experience a vast majority of people in the UK simply are accepting of current death rates as opposed to renewed restrictions or measures. Particularly with little public context of figures.

The government is towing the public line in my opinion, not the other way around, and just screaming idiots won't garner any support.

Nor do I think the public opinion is one that can be laid at the feet of our media. It's as typically an uncaring/unloving British trait as any other major crises in the last century from the Jewish refugees, the Troubles, Thatcher's economic overhauls, the colony exits, etc...

There will be better arguments devoid of trying to trigger an emotional response from us.

[robmatic]

So we are up to 7 day average for covid deaths of 163 daily, which is roughly 1,150 a week and over 59,000 per annum. Excess deaths for last week are 1,722 over the 5 year average up to start of the pandemic (2015-2019), this equates to over 89,,000 additional deaths per annum if that was to continue.

The Blonde Bumblecunt says that he will not impose any further restrictions and that the covid numbers are as they planned for. This is interesting and I assume these levels of deaths are 'acceptable' and don't justify Plan B implementation? I wonder what level of death will be required in order for Plan B to be implemented? At what point will the pile of bodies get too high for even the Blonde Bumblecunt?

What is Plan B, and when would it stop? Are we aiming for zero covid deaths? Vaccine take-up in the UK is probably as good as it will get without compulsion and the virus is already endemic.

[Uncle fester]

It's a really impotent line of attack to try and stick "gov are idiots because they are happy/accepting with/of current deaths from Covid" because as much as you want to couch a question mark at the end of it, in my experience a vast majority of people in the UK simply are accepting of current death rates as opposed to renewed restrictions or measures. Particularly with little public context of figures.

The government is towing the public line in my opinion, not the other way around, and just screaming idiots won't garner any support.

Nor do I think the public opinion is one that can be laid at the feet of our media. It's as typically an uncaring/unloving British trait as any other major crises in the last century from the Jewish refugees, the Troubles, Thatcher's economic overhauls, the colony exits, etc...

There will be better arguments devoid of trying to trigger an emotional response from us.

Something to be said for that. In Ireland, public opinion is largely in favour of some form of restrictions. In places like shops, mask wearing is still very prevalent and shops will actively stop people not wearing masks.

[tabascoboy]

Our nearest small Vaccine Centre announced they "will NOT be offering any WALK IN appointments for any vaccination for the rest of this week, unless further information is announced.
If you arrive, you will be turned away at the bottom of the road to ease congestion around the area. The centre is completely overwhelmed with appointments at the moment, but should this change we will let you know."

So, it seems the demand is there but there's nothing like the commitment and urgency to provide sufficient capacity for the vaccination / booster jabs rollout compared to the first rollout earlier in the year, not in my locale anyway

[dpedin]

So we are up to 7 day average for covid deaths of 163 daily, which is roughly 1,150 a week and over 59,000 per annum. Excess deaths for last week are 1,722 over the 5 year average up to start of the pandemic (2015-2019), this equates to over 89,,000 additional deaths per annum if that was to continue.

The Blonde Bumblecunt says that he will not impose any further restrictions and that the covid numbers are as they planned for. This is interesting and I assume these levels of deaths are 'acceptable' and don't justify Plan B implementation? I wonder what level of death will be required in order for Plan B to be implemented? At what point will the pile of bodies get too high for even the Blonde Bumblecunt?

What is Plan B, and when would it stop? Are we aiming for zero covid deaths? Vaccine take-up in the UK is probably as good as it will get without compulsion and the virus is already endemic.

Again the false use of the dichotomy between do something and do nothing - letting covid run wild v zero covid!

We should try and minimise deaths as much as possible by using simple yet proven and effective PH measures such as mask wearing, social distancing as much as possible, working from home of possible, using cheap but effective ventilation options such as portable HEPA filters systems in busy areas like classrooms, workplaces, etc. We should be aiming to reduce covid deaths not accepting the ongoing increases that we have at the moment. Vaccine take up could have been faster and more focused - we could have increased kids earlier and more effectively - why has England only vaccinated half of the % of those 12-17 year olds as Scotland and Wales?

Vaccination by itself is not the answer - it has to be vaccination PLUS PH mitigations, as above, to get community transmission under control then we need an effective TT&T system based on local PH systems to keep any outbreaks under control.

As to when it would stop .... I don't know but certainly not in the run up to a winter when we have very very high covid case numbers, when we know covid will spread more virulently and when we know flu and other respiratory viruses will increase and ultimately see the NHS under huge if not intolerable pressures. We know the levels of covid and flu will recede as we move into spring and summer and in the interim we should be targeting the 25% of the pop who have yet to have their first jab over this period, and that includes kids from 5 to 12 year old who are now being vaccinated in the states. 75% vaccination rates are insufficient for 'herd immunity' latest data suggests we need 85%+ to begin to reduce community transmission.

There is no reason why we should accept the level of deaths we have - it could be brought to far lower levels if there was political will and leadership. As I said in my first post, what is the level of deaths that will force the Gov to reconsider their current strategy? I suspect once COP26 is finished the Gov will decide it is then politically expedient to move.

[Biffer]

So we are up to 7 day average for covid deaths of 163 daily, which is roughly 1,150 a week and over 59,000 per annum. Excess deaths for last week are 1,722 over the 5 year average up to start of the pandemic (2015-2019), this equates to over 89,,000 additional deaths per annum if that was to continue.

The Blonde Bumblecunt says that he will not impose any further restrictions and that the covid numbers are as they planned for. This is interesting and I assume these levels of deaths are 'acceptable' and don't justify Plan B implementation? I wonder what level of death will be required in order for Plan B to be implemented? At what point will the pile of bodies get too high for even the Blonde Bumblecunt?

What is Plan B, and when would it stop? Are we aiming for zero covid deaths? Vaccine take-up in the UK is probably as good as it will get without compulsion and the virus is already endemic.

Again the false use of the dichotomy between do something and do nothing - letting covid run wild v zero covid!

We should try and minimise deaths as much as possible by using simple yet proven and effective PH measures such as mask wearing, social distancing as much as possible, working from home of possible, using cheap but effective ventilation options such as portable HEPA filters systems in busy areas like classrooms, workplaces, etc. We should be aiming to reduce covid deaths not accepting the ongoing increases that we have at the moment. Vaccine take up could have been faster and more focused - we could have increased kids earlier and more effectively - why has England only vaccinated half of the % of those 12-17 year olds as Scotland and Wales?

Vaccination by itself is not the answer - it has to be vaccination PLUS PH mitigations, as above, to get community transmission under control then we need an effective TT&T system based on local PH systems to keep any outbreaks under control.

As to when it would stop .... I don't know but certainly not in the run up to a winter when we have very very high covid case numbers, when we know covid will spread more virulently and when we know flu and other respiratory viruses will increase and ultimately see the NHS under huge if not intolerable pressures. We know the levels of covid and flu will recede as we move into spring and summer and in the interim we should be targeting the 25% of the pop who have yet to have their first jab over this period, and that includes kids from 5 to 12 year old who are now being vaccinated in the states. 75% vaccination rates are insufficient for 'herd immunity' latest data suggests we need 85%+ to begin to reduce community transmission.

There is no reason why we should accept the level of deaths we have - it could be brought to far lower levels if there was political will and leadership. As I said in my first post, what is the level of deaths that will force the Gov to reconsider their current strategy? I suspect once COP26 is finished the Gov will decide it is then politically expedient to move.

Waah, Waah, you want another lockdown!

My precious right you commie!

Howl, something about spying, Qanon bullshit!





Just thought I'd save us all a bit of time.

[vball]

The vaccine will stop most of the spread and I understand the comparision to wearing a seat belt.

However, as more and more people get vaccinated, the number of of unvaccintated becomes less. In Scotland we are sitting at about 2500 new cases per day. So the 2500 as a % of unvaccinated must be rising. So if it stays constant and we continue to vaccinate at same rate, there will come a time when all have been vaccinated but we still get 2500 new cases per day. So it is if we vacccinate or not, we will still get 2500 cases per day for ever. So really what we are saying is 2500 what we would expect each and every day when we are all vaccinated and without vaccinations, the number will be far, far higher.

Or do I need more coffee ?

[fishfoodie]

The vaccine will stop most of the spread and I understand the comparision to wearing a seat belt.

However, as more and more people get vaccinated, the number of of unvaccintated becomes less. In Scotland we are sitting at about 2500 new cases per day. So the 2500 as a % of unvaccinated must be rising. So if it stays constant and we continue to vaccinate at same rate, there will come a time when all have been vaccinated but we still get 2500 new cases per day. So it is if we vacccinate or not, we will still get 2500 cases per day for ever. So really what we are saying is 2500 what we would expect each and every day when we are all vaccinated and without vaccinations, the number will be far, far higher.

Or do I need more coffee ?

I don't think this is true, since Delta; & I'll dig out an article I found a few weeks ago; but in essence, a study found that being vaccinated isn't retarding the spread, the way it had been expected (based on the early variants), but it does importantly, break the link with hospitalizations, & deaths.

So Ireland with >90% vaccinations is still seeing climbing positive tests; but our rickety health system is coping, & ICU usage has dropped slightly , even though our daily cases has doubled in the last month.

Vaccination stops you ending up in hospital (for Covid); but won't necessarily stop you from catching Covid

[Slick]

From being at COP yesterday, I think we are going to have a very decent rise in infections.

[Mahoney]

as more and more people get vaccinated, the number of of unvaccintated becomes less

No flies on you.

[Ymx]

[tc27]

This is good news:


Covid: Pfizer says antiviral pill 89% effective in high risk cases
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59178291

Another treatment already approved.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59163899

[vball]

as more and more people get vaccinated, the number of of unvaccintated becomes less

No flies on you.

Only the marks where they have been.

[dpedin]

The vaccine will stop most of the spread and I understand the comparision to wearing a seat belt.

However, as more and more people get vaccinated, the number of of unvaccintated becomes less. In Scotland we are sitting at about 2500 new cases per day. So the 2500 as a % of unvaccinated must be rising. So if it stays constant and we continue to vaccinate at same rate, there will come a time when all have been vaccinated but we still get 2500 new cases per day. So it is if we vacccinate or not, we will still get 2500 cases per day for ever. So really what we are saying is 2500 what we would expect each and every day when we are all vaccinated and without vaccinations, the number will be far, far higher.

Or do I need more coffee ?

I don't think this is true, since Delta; & I'll dig out an article I found a few weeks ago; but in essence, a study found that being vaccinated isn't retarding the spread, the way it had been expected (based on the early variants), but it does importantly, break the link with hospitalizations, & deaths.

So Ireland with >90% vaccinations is still seeing climbing positive tests; but our rickety health system is coping, & ICU usage has dropped slightly , even though our daily cases has doubled in the last month.

Vaccination stops you ending up in hospital (for Covid); but won't necessarily stop you from catching Covid

You need more coffee!

Vaccination doesn't stop infection or transmission - it does however make you less likely to transmit covid and you are infectious for a shorter period of time. It also, as said above, prevents most of those infected going on to develop severe disease and being hospitalised and dying. However remember that the vaccines were only ever 85% 'ish effective so there are still a chance of fully vaccinated folk who will develop covid and be very ill or even die. Also the vaccine wanes and over time and that's why for those most vulnerable we need booster shots.

Across the UK 25% of the pop have not been vaccinated - 11% are eligible but unvaccinated and 14% are kids who we currently don't vaccinate. This means approx 16 million folk in a pool able to contract and spread the virus.

All the above means that the Gov strategy of depending on vaccines alone is doomed to failure. We need to have all the other PH mitigations in place to try and control the community transmission of covid. This is not a lock down but sensible fairly unobtrusive measures like wearing masks.

7 day average for deaths is now 170 per day, 1,190 per week or 62,000 a year. Many of these are avoidable. It will get worse.

[dpedin]

What is Plan B, and when would it stop? Are we aiming for zero covid deaths? Vaccine take-up in the UK is probably as good as it will get without compulsion and the virus is already endemic.

Again the false use of the dichotomy between do something and do nothing - letting covid run wild v zero covid!

We should try and minimise deaths as much as possible by using simple yet proven and effective PH measures such as mask wearing, social distancing as much as possible, working from home of possible, using cheap but effective ventilation options such as portable HEPA filters systems in busy areas like classrooms, workplaces, etc. We should be aiming to reduce covid deaths not accepting the ongoing increases that we have at the moment. Vaccine take up could have been faster and more focused - we could have increased kids earlier and more effectively - why has England only vaccinated half of the % of those 12-17 year olds as Scotland and Wales?

Vaccination by itself is not the answer - it has to be vaccination PLUS PH mitigations, as above, to get community transmission under control then we need an effective TT&T system based on local PH systems to keep any outbreaks under control.

As to when it would stop .... I don't know but certainly not in the run up to a winter when we have very very high covid case numbers, when we know covid will spread more virulently and when we know flu and other respiratory viruses will increase and ultimately see the NHS under huge if not intolerable pressures. We know the levels of covid and flu will recede as we move into spring and summer and in the interim we should be targeting the 25% of the pop who have yet to have their first jab over this period, and that includes kids from 5 to 12 year old who are now being vaccinated in the states. 75% vaccination rates are insufficient for 'herd immunity' latest data suggests we need 85%+ to begin to reduce community transmission.

There is no reason why we should accept the level of deaths we have - it could be brought to far lower levels if there was political will and leadership. As I said in my first post, what is the level of deaths that will force the Gov to reconsider their current strategy? I suspect once COP26 is finished the Gov will decide it is then politically expedient to move.

Waah, Waah, you want another lockdown!

My precious right you commie!

Howl, something about spying, Qanon bullshit!





Just thought I'd save us all a bit of time.

This is closer to the truth than you probably imagine!

[Tichtheid]

Just booked a booster jab for early December.

I read the first "official" murmurings of an annual booster being in place from next year, some minister said as much this morning

[petej]

The vaccine will stop most of the spread and I understand the comparision to wearing a seat belt.

However, as more and more people get vaccinated, the number of of unvaccintated becomes less. In Scotland we are sitting at about 2500 new cases per day. So the 2500 as a % of unvaccinated must be rising. So if it stays constant and we continue to vaccinate at same rate, there will come a time when all have been vaccinated but we still get 2500 new cases per day. So it is if we vacccinate or not, we will still get 2500 cases per day for ever. So really what we are saying is 2500 what we would expect each and every day when we are all vaccinated and without vaccinations, the number will be far, far higher.

Or do I need more coffee ?

I don't think this is true, since Delta; & I'll dig out an article I found a few weeks ago; but in essence, a study found that being vaccinated isn't retarding the spread, the way it had been expected (based on the early variants), but it does importantly, break the link with hospitalizations, & deaths.

So Ireland with >90% vaccinations is still seeing climbing positive tests; but our rickety health system is coping, & ICU usage has dropped slightly , even though our daily cases has doubled in the last month.

Vaccination stops you ending up in hospital (for Covid); but won't necessarily stop you from catching Covid

You need more coffee!

Vaccination doesn't stop infection or transmission - it does however make you less likely to transmit covid and you are infectious for a shorter period of time. It also, as said above, prevents most of those infected going on to develop severe disease and being hospitalised and dying. However remember that the vaccines were only ever 85% 'ish effective so there are still a chance of fully vaccinated folk who will develop covid and be very ill or even die. Also the vaccine wanes and over time and that's why for those most vulnerable we need booster shots.

Across the UK 25% of the pop have not been vaccinated - 11% are eligible but unvaccinated and 14% are kids who we currently don't vaccinate. This means approx 16 million folk in a pool able to contract and spread the virus.

All the above means that the Gov strategy of depending on vaccines alone is doomed to failure. We need to have all the other PH mitigations in place to try and control the community transmission of covid. This is not a lock down but sensible fairly unobtrusive measures like wearing masks.

7 day average for deaths is now 170 per day, 1,190 per week or 62,000 a year. Many of these are avoidable. It will get worse.

Vaccines don't totally wane. Still have your T and B cells. If you have seen an age chart of the UK infections recently the spread has predominantly been in the u18s and spill over to their parents. Now dropping rapidly in the u18s. Masks etc at this point only delaying the inevitable endemic state. Not that this government isn't a bunch of incompetents but I'm totally unwilling to have restrictions considering the minor impact of COVID on the young (compared to the impact of restrictions) who have basically had a government (voted into power by the old) that has been a complete and utter set of cnuts to people under 30 for 10 years.

[Sandstorm]

Looks like the beginning of the pandemic in April 2020 we should have sent every kid between 5 and 18 to a Covid camp for 2 weeks, get them infected and then come home afterwards with immunity.

[petej]

Looks like the beginning of the pandemic in April 2020 we should have sent every kid between 5 and 18 to a Covid camp for 2 weeks, get them infected and then come home afterwards with immunity.

No, that would have been dumb at the time as we didn't have vaccines or the treatments or the understanding we have now. Due to the feckless nature of our government we have very much been the global canaries. The output of the UK's health and scientific bodies has been excellent impart due to this incompetence. The uk government screwed up massively in march 2020 and last autumn/winter.

[dpedin]

Trying to achieve herd immunity by letting the young get infected deliberately and then trying to achieve herd immunity by onward community transmission is criminal. We still don't know the long term health impact of what is still a relatively unknown virus, why potentially consign 1,000's of young folk to an uncertain long term health issues due to covid etc when we have a very effective vaccine and we can use some simple but effective PH mitigations to control cases? Also we know kids can transmit covid to others and the data shows that covid in the older age groups ie parents/grandparents, is rising again.

142,000 UK deaths from covid so far and currently 1,700 additional excess deaths per week compared with the 5 year average prior to covid would suggest the UK strategy has been and still is an abysmal failure. We are going to have a real shit winter folks!

[Uncle fester]

Trying to achieve herd immunity by letting the young get infected deliberately and then trying to achieve herd immunity by onward community transmission is criminal. We still don't know the long term health impact of what is still a relatively unknown virus, why potentially consign 1,000's of young folk to an uncertain long term health issues due to covid etc when we have a very effective vaccine and we can use some simple but effective PH mitigations to control cases? Also we know kids can transmit covid to others and the data shows that covid in the older age groups ie parents/grandparents, is rising again.

142,000 UK deaths from covid so far and currently 1,700 additional excess deaths per week compared with the 5 year average prior to covid would suggest the UK strategy has been and still is an abysmal failure. We are going to have a real shit winter folks!

I don't think Sandy was being completely serious.

[tabascoboy]

Booster jab booked for 4th December, exactly 6 months after the second jab.

[SaintK]

Booster jab booked for 4th December, exactly 6 months after the second jab.

Just got back from having mine. Good to see how many folk were waiting in line for theirs.
One of the staff said thay had been very quiet for a few weeks until this weekend as nobody was aware that you could just walk-in!!!
Perhaps if the NHS website ahd been clearer we would have seen more people having their booster by now.

[Insane_Homer]

262 Covid deaths registered in the last 24 hours

Plan A sucks arse

[Slick]

262 Covid deaths registered in the last 24 hours

Plan A sucks arse

Don't know what you're talking about, it's all over. Just ask any of the students round here

[Wrinkles]

262 Covid deaths registered in the last 24 hours

Plan A sucks arse

Or to put it another way, deaths up 2.6% over the past seven days and the lowest reported Tuesday total for three weeks. The number of Covid deaths “registered” in the last 24 hours was actually 34, although that will obviously rise.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... e_of_death

Good to see positive cases down 14.8% and hospitalisations down 7.8% week on week.

[petej]

262 Covid deaths registered in the last 24 hours

Plan A sucks arse

Or to put it another way, deaths up 2.6% over the past seven days and the lowest reported Tuesday total for three weeks. The number of Covid deaths “registered” in the last 24 hours was actually 34, although that will obviously rise.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... e_of_death

Good to see positive cases down 14.8% and hospitalisations down 7.8% week on week.

Yep. Really don't like seeing people using the deaths reported today as the number of deaths for the day as it fluctuates a lot, think the AVG is about 150 currently.

Boosters report is really good news. a 3rd dose is reducing the likelihood of symptomatic COVID by x20 for those who have had two doses and the antibody levels are higher than reported after 2doses.

Think I'm getting my booster by catching it. I got a positive lft yesterday (been testing myself whenever I catch a cold). Pretty unavoidable when you have small child that they and you will catch it. Just normal cold symptoms so far.

[Insane_Homer]

Good to see positive cases down 14.8% and hospitalisations down 7.8% week on week.

Schools have been off for the holidays, you don't expect that number to hold, do you?

[Wrinkles]

Good to see positive cases down 14.8% and hospitalisations down 7.8% week on week.

Schools have been off for the holidays, you don't expect that number to hold, do you?

Cases have been falling steadily since the 21st October peak (ie. before schools broke-up).

[FalseBayFC]

Good to see positive cases down 14.8% and hospitalisations down 7.8% week on week.

Schools have been off for the holidays, you don't expect that number to hold, do you?

Cases have been falling steadily since the 21st October peak (ie. before schools broke-up).

Kids have been back at school for ages now. And in areas like townships and informal settlements, kids probably have has as much social contact during their holidays as they do at school. Middle class kids don't play anymore in the street in "gangs" like we used to do. Remember the BMX tracks, arcade games at the tearoom etc.

[Insane_Homer]

Good to see positive cases down 14.8% and hospitalisations down 7.8% week on week.

Schools have been off for the holidays, you don't expect that number to hold, do you?

Cases have been falling steadily since the 21st October peak (ie. before schools broke-up).

Your 14.8% decline doesn't go back to the 21 Oct does it? it's for the last week.

It's a pity that the 7 day average deaths since 21 October has risen by 27.7%

[dpedin]

We have seen case numbers go up and down since middle of July - they seem to be fluctuating between 25k and 50k for the last 4 months with a number of peaks and troughs. Looking for a pattern over this period has been pretty pointless when you look back, we seem to be in a steady state. The 7 day rolling average for deaths - which is at c165 per day - has seen a gradual increase week on week which is pretty inevitable given the cumulative impact of the case numbers. Excess death rates per week are still well above the pre covid 5 year average. This is unsurprising and a reflection of the Gov strategy of allowing community transmission before we have vaccinated the levels required to control community transmission. I think as we move forward the key metric won't be cases but will be deaths due to covid and excess deaths.

The fluctuation of case numbers will reflect a whole range of things from reporting issues, local hotspots and spread (SW if England due to Immensa PCR scandal), schools being in/on holiday, impact of weather and driving folk indoors, major events, etc. I suspect we will see case numbers come down as less folk go to get tested if they have symptoms as they will probably be double/booster jabbed and will expect and have less serious illness and shrug it off as a cold/flu, etc.

Hopefully the impact of the booster jab will begin to show in death rates, the impact should kick in soon? However it seems the Gov and many in country have collectively come to a conclusion that c150 deaths a day, 1,050 a week or c55,000 per annum is an acceptable level of deaths from an avoidable disease? I say this as the lack of attention or concern this seems to attract would suggest folk are comfortable with this and it is the level at which we 'should just live with it'?

Personally I find this an unbelievably high level of avoidable deaths that we should 'just live with', particularly given that we were the first country to roll out what are very effective vaccines and have a wide range of fairly unobtrusive PH mitigation measures that we know for certain if deployed by everyone would reduce community transmission - wearing masks, some social distancing, working from home where possible, meeting outdoors, etc.

Spanish flu had 3 major waves. Some might suggest we have had our 3 waves, other suggest we haven't but might be lucky and because of vaccines avoid a 3rd wave, I hope so but worry this winter might see another peak in deaths.

[Paddington Bear]

Hopefully the impact of the booster jab will begin to show in death rates, the impact should kick in soon? However it seems the Gov and many in country have collectively come to a conclusion that c150 deaths a day, 1,050 a week or c55,000 per annum is an acceptable level of deaths from an avoidable disease? I say this as the lack of attention or concern this seems to attract would suggest folk are comfortable with this and it is the level at which we 'should just live with it'?

It's a fair position to hold but it should come with the caveat that you need to define at what point you would say we should live with it, factoring in that limiting the spread of covid comes with it's own significant costs, both to wider health and the economy.

[dpedin]

Hopefully the impact of the booster jab will begin to show in death rates, the impact should kick in soon? However it seems the Gov and many in country have collectively come to a conclusion that c150 deaths a day, 1,050 a week or c55,000 per annum is an acceptable level of deaths from an avoidable disease? I say this as the lack of attention or concern this seems to attract would suggest folk are comfortable with this and it is the level at which we 'should just live with it'?

It's a fair position to hold but it should come with the caveat that you need to define at what point you would say we should live with it, factoring in that limiting the spread of covid comes with it's own significant costs, both to wider health and the economy.

The problem is that we haven't seen any sensible Gov impact assessment of various PH mitigations. Indeed they haven't shared what their plans are, for example what the measures they are using to assess if Plan B needs to be implemented. However to date the Gov response to the covid19 pandemic has resulted in the worst economic impact of any of the G7 and would suggest they don't really know what they are doing. However I'm not sure wearing a mask indoors comes with a significant cost to the economy? I'm not sure improving ventilation indoors comes with a significant cost - opening doors and windows or buying portable HEPA ventilation for schools, colleges, workplaces is a significant cost? I'm not sure vaccine passport once implemented comes at a significant cost - parts of Europe seems to be surviving with it - mate just back from France who use it said their bars and restaurants were very busy. His NHS Scotland app was accepted there.

It's the virus itself that causes the health and economic costs and managing its spread and impact badly has a far higher cost to the country than what the Gov should have done and should be doing going forward. I'm not an epidemiologist but the current levels of deaths for an avoidable disease seems far too high to me. The problem is we have been hit by a novel disease and we don't really know an awful lot about it and its longer term health impacts. Rather than let it spread uncontrolled and keep our fingers crossed that long covid and related cases of cardiac, pulmonary, stroke, vascular type of issues go away we need to get it under control asap. We need to get covid case numbers down - using a combination of vaccination and PH mitigations - to a point to when our local PH teams can TT&T outbreaks and put in place local responses to control outbreaks. I would treat it more like measles rather than flu in the future - look at the GOv guidelines for managing measles outbreaks.

[Paddington Bear]

Hopefully the impact of the booster jab will begin to show in death rates, the impact should kick in soon? However it seems the Gov and many in country have collectively come to a conclusion that c150 deaths a day, 1,050 a week or c55,000 per annum is an acceptable level of deaths from an avoidable disease? I say this as the lack of attention or concern this seems to attract would suggest folk are comfortable with this and it is the level at which we 'should just live with it'?

It's a fair position to hold but it should come with the caveat that you need to define at what point you would say we should live with it, factoring in that limiting the spread of covid comes with it's own significant costs, both to wider health and the economy.

The problem is that we haven't seen any sensible Gov impact assessment of various PH mitigations. Indeed they haven't shared what their plans are, for example what the measures they are using to assess if Plan B needs to be implemented. However to date the Gov response to the covid19 pandemic has resulted in the worst economic impact of any of the G7 and would suggest they don't really know what they are doing. However I'm not sure wearing a mask indoors comes with a significant cost to the economy? I'm not sure improving ventilation indoors comes with a significant cost - opening doors and windows or buying portable HEPA ventilation for schools, colleges, workplaces is a significant cost? I'm not sure vaccine passport once implemented comes at a significant cost - parts of Europe seems to be surviving with it - mate just back from France who use it said their bars and restaurants were very busy. His NHS Scotland app was accepted there.

It's the virus itself that causes the health and economic costs and managing its spread and impact badly has a far higher cost to the country than what the Gov should have done and should be doing going forward. I'm not an epidemiologist but the current levels of deaths for an avoidable disease seems far too high to me. The problem is we have been hit by a novel disease and we don't really know an awful lot about it and its longer term health impacts. Rather than let it spread uncontrolled and keep our fingers crossed that long covid and related cases of cardiac, pulmonary, stroke, vascular type of issues go away we need to get it under control asap. We need to get covid case numbers down - using a combination of vaccination and PH mitigations - to a point to when our local PH teams can TT&T outbreaks and put in place local responses to control outbreaks. I would treat it more like measles rather than flu in the future - look at the GOv guidelines for managing measles outbreaks.

Is there any evidence that what you're suggesting is going to represent a major shift in cases?
Masks and ventilation help at the margins, absolutely, but Scotland for example as somewhere still much hotter on masks than England has had broadly comparable cases all year (with rises and falls at different intervals). Vaccine passports seem a bit unnecessary given our high levels of vaccination.
I'm not saying don't do these things, I'm suggesting they won't make the massive difference it's claimed they will. Cases are high because all businesses and schools are open. If you want to suppress the virus you have to close them. Anything else won't cause a meaningful shift and we should be realistic about that.

[Lemoentjie]

Very depressing Twitter thread of American parents virtue signalling their children wearing masks in places where they really don't need one...:



Maybe the most depressing:

[petej]

America is freaky. Also totally unnecessary to mask young children considering the risk of COVID to them. The jcvi calculations found the risk levels of COVID and the vaccine to be nearly the same in the 12-15 year olds.

[Lemoentjie]

America is freaky. Also totally unnecessary to mask young children considering the risk of COVID to them. The jcvi calculations found the risk levels of COVID and the vaccine to be nearly the same in the 12-15 year olds.

It's a country founded by English Puritans. The more you look, the more you see it.

[Biffer]

America is freaky. Also totally unnecessary to mask young children considering the risk of COVID to them. The jcvi calculations found the risk levels of COVID and the vaccine to be nearly the same in the 12-15 year olds.

Interesting difference in law - in the UK children are viewed as separate individuals with the right to make their own decisions, providing they are considered (in law if necessary) capable of doing so. So teenagers in the UK are entitled to make their own choice about being vaccinated. In the US, they're basically the property of their parents and have to do as is decided for them.

[dpedin]

It's a fair position to hold but it should come with the caveat that you need to define at what point you would say we should live with it, factoring in that limiting the spread of covid comes with it's own significant costs, both to wider health and the economy.

The problem is that we haven't seen any sensible Gov impact assessment of various PH mitigations. Indeed they haven't shared what their plans are, for example what the measures they are using to assess if Plan B needs to be implemented. However to date the Gov response to the covid19 pandemic has resulted in the worst economic impact of any of the G7 and would suggest they don't really know what they are doing. However I'm not sure wearing a mask indoors comes with a significant cost to the economy? I'm not sure improving ventilation indoors comes with a significant cost - opening doors and windows or buying portable HEPA ventilation for schools, colleges, workplaces is a significant cost? I'm not sure vaccine passport once implemented comes at a significant cost - parts of Europe seems to be surviving with it - mate just back from France who use it said their bars and restaurants were very busy. His NHS Scotland app was accepted there.

It's the virus itself that causes the health and economic costs and managing its spread and impact badly has a far higher cost to the country than what the Gov should have done and should be doing going forward. I'm not an epidemiologist but the current levels of deaths for an avoidable disease seems far too high to me. The problem is we have been hit by a novel disease and we don't really know an awful lot about it and its longer term health impacts. Rather than let it spread uncontrolled and keep our fingers crossed that long covid and related cases of cardiac, pulmonary, stroke, vascular type of issues go away we need to get it under control asap. We need to get covid case numbers down - using a combination of vaccination and PH mitigations - to a point to when our local PH teams can TT&T outbreaks and put in place local responses to control outbreaks. I would treat it more like measles rather than flu in the future - look at the GOv guidelines for managing measles outbreaks.

Is there any evidence that what you're suggesting is going to represent a major shift in cases?
Masks and ventilation help at the margins, absolutely, but Scotland for example as somewhere still much hotter on masks than England has had broadly comparable cases all year (with rises and falls at different intervals). Vaccine passports seem a bit unnecessary given our high levels of vaccination.
I'm not saying don't do these things, I'm suggesting they won't make the massive difference it's claimed they will. Cases are high because all businesses and schools are open. If you want to suppress the virus you have to close them. Anything else won't cause a meaningful shift and we should be realistic about that.

There is evidence that individually each of these things work in reducing transmission of covid - I can't be arsed going through all the evidence but you can google and find the peer reviewed papers. There are many. There is also some interesting research about mask wearing in the Spanish Flu epidemic in Canada that found that Calgary, which had a mask mandate had 2-3 times less cases and deaths than Edmonton which delayed implementing a mask mandate. (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10 ... 21.1891615) Whilst the virus are different and we can't use this as a direct like for like example it is a good case of the impact of a simple PH mitigation at a city/regional level.

It is not unreasonable to suggest that collectively simple proven PH mitigation will make a difference to covid rates nationally. However surely the decision should be based on caution and implement these pretty simple PH mitigations until it is proven otherwise and that they don't make a difference? The problem all along with our approach to covid has been to act too late and implement too slowly, by which time we have lost control of the community transmission rate. To repeat wearing masks, improved ventilation, socially distancing where possible, vaccine passports, etc is low cost and low hassle and has minimal impact on economy, etc. If we end up having to go into another lock down because we haven't taken action early enough that will be far, far more costly as we have already seen with the UK GDP and growth figures, the worst in the G7.

Vaccine passports - we have similar rates of vaccination than France and other European countries, indeed Israel who are reintroducing them has higher levels. However because of the Delta variant we need something in excess of 90% coverage before we even begin to approach 'herd immunity' levels. We can get there but it will need real effort and push from the Gov - we have done it with a range of other dangerous transmissible diseases like measles, mumps, rubella, polio, etc. The difficulty this time is we are having to vaccinate the whole pop from scratch but we are nearly there. Vaccine Passports are a tool to both prevent transmission and encourage those more reluctant to get vaccinated.

If we don't put in place vaccinations and PH mitigations we will struggle to get community transmission under control, we need both in place to get control and to minimise deaths over winter. I want to avoid a lock down as much as you do but we won't do that by doing nothing now! Cases are high because we are pretending the pandemic has finished and even the most basic PH mitigations have been ditched. We can get lower case rates and keep businesses and education open. However doing feck all apart from vaccinations, wishful thinking, ignoring a death toll of over 1,000 a week and wishing its gone will just lead us into another lock down.