So, coronavirus...

[dpedin]

Impact of the not immensa labs south west screw up in the react COVID prevalence study.

I still think this should lead to a criminal investigation - it is inevitable that the 'deliberate' or at best incompetent' production of false negatives has led to a number of avoidable deaths. I believe the (Not NHS) Test and Trace organisation was responsible for award and monitoring of the contract?

[petej]

[quote=dpedin post_id=156614 time=1637064296 user_

Impact of the not immensa labs south west screw up in the react COVID prevalence study.

I still think this should lead to a criminal investigation - it is inevitable that the 'deliberate' or at best incompetent' production of false negatives has led to a number of avoidable deaths. I believe the (Not NHS) Test and Trace organisation was responsible for award and monitoring of the contract?

This sort of thing will nearly always be due to an accidental fuck up followed by various people in management positions arse covering (trying not to admit it) while desperately urging their minions to fix it in the background. It is possible someone internal deliberately sabotaged it but highly unlikely.

[dpedin]

[quote=dpedin post_id=156614 time=1637064296 user_

Impact of the not immensa labs south west screw up in the react COVID prevalence study.

I still think this should lead to a criminal investigation - it is inevitable that the 'deliberate' or at best incompetent' production of false negatives has led to a number of avoidable deaths. I believe the (Not NHS) Test and Trace organisation was responsible for award and monitoring of the contract?

This sort of thing will nearly always be due to an accidental fuck up followed by various people in management positions arse covering (trying not to admit it) while desperately urging their minions to fix it in the background. It is possible someone internal deliberately sabotaged it but highly unlikely.

My suspicion is that they were overwhelmed with samples and behind in reporting and just decided to not test batches and just declare them as negatives to help them catch up.

If this was a passenger jet crashing and some died because someone fucked up and folk then tried to cover their arses then they would end up in prison. If a building site didn't provide all safety requirements and systems and someone dies in an accident and they try and cover it up those responsible end up in prison. Providing these type of healthcare lab services are no different. If the owners/managers of this lab didn't have the correct quality systems in place, knew that they couldn't operate to the standards required and knowingly failed to implement the required improvements, etc then they are at fault. Criminal negligence, corporate manslaughter, call it what you want.

[petej]

[quote=dpedin post_id=156614 time=1637064296 user_

I still think this should lead to a criminal investigation - it is inevitable that the 'deliberate' or at best incompetent' production of false negatives has led to a number of avoidable deaths. I believe the (Not NHS) Test and Trace organisation was responsible for award and monitoring of the contract?

This sort of thing will nearly always be due to an accidental fuck up followed by various people in management positions arse covering (trying not to admit it) while desperately urging their minions to fix it in the background. It is possible someone internal deliberately sabotaged it but highly unlikely.

My suspicion is that they were overwhelmed with samples and behind in reporting and just decided to not test batches and just declare them as negatives to help them catch up.

If this was a passenger jet crashing and some died because someone fucked up and folk then tried to cover their arses then they would end up in prison. If a building site didn't provide all safety requirements and systems and someone dies in an accident and they try and cover it up those responsible end up in prison. Providing these type of healthcare lab services are no different. If the owners/managers of this lab didn't have the correct quality systems in place, knew that they couldn't operate to the standards required and knowingly failed to implement the required improvements, etc then they are at fault. Criminal negligence, corporate manslaughter, call it what you want.

I thought that people were given false positive and false negative results.

[petej]

Aircraft crash is also an easily identifiable cause of death. Catching covid due to a lab results is pretty tenuous and won't hold up in court. They might get payments withheld and a contract cancelled for being shit. With lft's I wouldn't bother with PCR testing outside of clinical settings. Waste of money.

[JM2K6]

re: the JCVI's recommendation: https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2251

linked from this here article https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/20 ... d-disaster which is a good read (dpedin linked it earlier)

[Slick]

Have Scottish Government mentioned anything about under 50's getting a booster yet?

[GrahamWa]

Have Scottish Government mentioned anything about under 50's getting a booster yet?

Think "she" said today that under 50s that didn't fall into the currently permitted categories wouldn't have reach 6 months (24 weeks) since the 2nd jag. So the booking portal hasn't open to them yet. Sturgeon is in the same bracket so she will know I suppose.

[dpedin]

[dpedin]

[quote=dpedin post_id=156614 time=1637064296 user_

This sort of thing will nearly always be due to an accidental fuck up followed by various people in management positions arse covering (trying not to admit it) while desperately urging their minions to fix it in the background. It is possible someone internal deliberately sabotaged it but highly unlikely.

My suspicion is that they were overwhelmed with samples and behind in reporting and just decided to not test batches and just declare them as negatives to help them catch up.

If this was a passenger jet crashing and some died because someone fucked up and folk then tried to cover their arses then they would end up in prison. If a building site didn't provide all safety requirements and systems and someone dies in an accident and they try and cover it up those responsible end up in prison. Providing these type of healthcare lab services are no different. If the owners/managers of this lab didn't have the correct quality systems in place, knew that they couldn't operate to the standards required and knowingly failed to implement the required improvements, etc then they are at fault. Criminal negligence, corporate manslaughter, call it what you want.

I thought that people were given false positive and false negative results.

Study quoted in Times suggesting that the Immensa scandal could have led to a an additional 26k to 76k cases and up to 100 additional covid deaths based on known fatality rates. Agree that this is difficult to confirm exact numbers but it's safe to say that telling c43k people that they were negative when they were positive will have led to an increase in transmission and deaths.

[Sandstorm]

Lab fuckup caused a huge spike in cases in W Berkshire after 18 months of very low numbers. We are still buckling under high case numbers 2 months later.

[petej]

re: the JCVI's recommendation: https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2251

linked from this here article https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/20 ... d-disaster which is a good read (dpedin linked it earlier)

FYI We were low on Pfizer and moderna. Devolved admins (Wales & Scotland) do publish data on vaccine stocks and deliveries and the distribution looked to be proportional to population size so could be estimated for England. Not sure England were squeezing out the extra doses as well. I think there was deliveries of pfizer early sept/late August from the 2nd order.

[Biffer]

Have Scottish Government mentioned anything about under 50's getting a booster yet?

Think "she" said today that under 50s that didn't fall into the currently permitted categories wouldn't have reach 6 months (24 weeks) since the 2nd jag. So the booking portal hasn't open to them yet. Sturgeon is in the same bracket so she will know I suppose.

She’s 51

[Dogbert]

Google is your friend

Scotland confirms Covid boosters for over-40s

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-59290426

[fishfoodie]

Aircraft crash is also an easily identifiable cause of death. Catching covid due to a lab results is pretty tenuous and won't hold up in court. They might get payments withheld and a contract cancelled for being shit. With lft's I wouldn't bother with PCR testing outside of clinical settings. Waste of money.

You'll have a lot more success in proving negligence; & given what we've seen so far; that shouldn't be too difficult.

All you'd need to do is quote the % of positive tests per 1k, seen in this lab, & national statistics that everyone watching the daily news conferences. That should be damning enough to show that the people administering the lab weren't paying any attention to the accuracy of their tests.

How could they possibly explain how they were seeing orders of magnitude less positive tests than any other lab in the Country ?

[Slick]

Google is your friend

Scotland confirms Covid boosters for over-40s

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-59290426

The good news is it’s coming

The bad news is Humza is on the case

[Dogbert]

Yet Scotland is the leading nation in the UK for the highest percentage of 1st / 2nd / and Booster vaccines administered. .....

Sounds like a disaster he is overseeing

[petej]

Yet Scotland is the leading nation in the UK for the highest percentage of 1st / 2nd / and Booster vaccines administered. .....

Sounds like a disaster he is overseeing

Generally it goes Wales, Scotland, England, NI for vaccine roll out speed but Scotland leads in uptake %. NI is always significantly behind the others.

[dpedin]

Yet Scotland is the leading nation in the UK for the highest percentage of 1st / 2nd / and Booster vaccines administered. .....

Sounds like a disaster he is overseeing

Generally it goes Wales, Scotland, England, NI for vaccine roll out speed but Scotland leads in uptake %. NI is always significantly behind the others.

??? - not sure what you mean by 'speed' of roll out? Vaccine uptake as a % of pop or as % of those eligible is as Dogbert has posted. Wales aren't far behind Scotland TBF. Both Scotland and Wales have an NHS structure which has made it more efficient in managing the roll out, whilst there are the usual problems and local cock ups given the scale of the task both have done better than England. NI has different issues which I down know enough about - I am sure others will comment on why their roll out has been slower.

[fishfoodie]

Yet Scotland is the leading nation in the UK for the highest percentage of 1st / 2nd / and Booster vaccines administered. .....

Sounds like a disaster he is overseeing

Generally it goes Wales, Scotland, England, NI for vaccine roll out speed but Scotland leads in uptake %. NI is always significantly behind the others.

??? - not sure what you mean by 'speed' of roll out? Vaccine uptake as a % of pop or as % of those eligible is as Dogbert has posted. Wales aren't far behind Scotland TBF. Both Scotland and Wales have an NHS structure which has made it more efficient in managing the roll out, whilst there are the usual problems and local cock ups given the scale of the task both have done better than England. NI has different issues which I down know enough about - I am sure others will comment on why their roll out has been slower.

Part of the problem in NI, is their NHS suffered from their Politicians playing silly buggers over flags, & the Cash-For-Ash corruption; & didn't do their jobs for a couple of years; & meanwhile the NHS was underfunded, & the Civil Service had no power to do anything but plug along.

You've also got an, anti-authority strain in all communities; that means that even if the authority is trying to save your life; the stupid pricks insist on doing the exact opposite.

[Biffer]

Yet Scotland is the leading nation in the UK for the highest percentage of 1st / 2nd / and Booster vaccines administered. .....

Sounds like a disaster he is overseeing

It's very noticeable that there's been a significant drop in deaths in Scotland over the last two weeks or so. From a 7 day average of about 110-120 to a seven day average of 50-60. Got to think that's related to the booster rollout?

[Biffer]

So this is not even pre-=print, it's data leaked to the Times of Israel about their booster rollout.

They're not seeing much waning after 9-10 months post 3rd shot

https://www.timesofisrael.com/pfizer-bo ... tial-data/

[petej]

Yet Scotland is the leading nation in the UK for the highest percentage of 1st / 2nd / and Booster vaccines administered. .....

Sounds like a disaster he is overseeing

It's very noticeable that there's been a significant drop in deaths in Scotland over the last two weeks or so. From a 7 day average of about 110-120 to a seven day average of 50-60. Got to think that's related to the booster rollout?

Yes. Cases in the earliest booster age groups have dropped significant (ie steeper and further than other age groups) in the last few weeks so it should be feeding through to deaths

[dpedin]

Yet Scotland is the leading nation in the UK for the highest percentage of 1st / 2nd / and Booster vaccines administered. .....

Sounds like a disaster he is overseeing

It's very noticeable that there's been a significant drop in deaths in Scotland over the last two weeks or so. From a 7 day average of about 110-120 to a seven day average of 50-60. Got to think that's related to the booster rollout?

Yes. Cases in the earliest booster age groups have dropped significant (ie steeper and further than other age groups) in the last few weeks so it should be feeding through to deaths

However notice an uptick in cases in younger age groups in last week or so - this in turn will feed through into other age groups over the next week or two. Time lag from school returning? Mate of mine currently isolating with covid probably caught from his kids.

[petej]

It's very noticeable that there's been a significant drop in deaths in Scotland over the last two weeks or so. From a 7 day average of about 110-120 to a seven day average of 50-60. Got to think that's related to the booster rollout?

Yes. Cases in the earliest booster age groups have dropped significant (ie steeper and further than other age groups) in the last few weeks so it should be feeding through to deaths

However notice an uptick in cases in younger age groups in last week or so - this in turn will feed through into other age groups over the next week or two. Time lag from school returning? Mate of mine currently isolating with covid probably caught from his kids.

My COVID is now just an annoying cough. Nearly fully recovered. Same for my toddler. Pretty much caught it bang on 6months after my 2nd jab. If I'd properly rested up for a couple of days I would be better by now.

The rate of growth has already peaked on this up swing and the downward pressure from boosters and infection should mean cases continue vaguely downwards.

[dpedin]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... tudy-finds

Looks like things like mask wearing, social distancing do make a difference to covid transmission!

[Flockwitt]

that is not good.

[Uncle fester]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... tudy-finds

Looks like things like mask wearing, social distancing do make a difference to covid transmission!

Yep, we could take my county as a consistent evidence that masks work. Maryland one of the top 5 most vaccinated states doesn’t have mask mandate indoor, but Montgomery co does, we have constantly over half less cases than the state.

Long Covid numbers for kids and adults, they never talk or show these numbers here, eye opening
dpedin wrote

The result:
11,219 child Covid hospitalisations [0-17]
72 child Covid deaths, to 29-Oct [ONS, 0-19]
69,000 #LongCovidKids

Think some people are putting too much hope in vaccines. We shouldn't need to go back to lockdown but we simply have to keep some sort of sensible mitigations.

[petej]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... tudy-finds

Looks like things like mask wearing, social distancing do make a difference to covid transmission!

Yep, we could take my county as a consistent evidence that masks work. Maryland one of the top 5 most vaccinated states doesn’t have mask mandate indoor, but Montgomery co does, we have constantly over half less cases than the state.

Long Covid numbers for kids and adults, they never talk or show these numbers here, eye opening
dpedin wrote

The result:
11,219 child Covid hospitalisations [0-17]
72 child Covid deaths, to 29-Oct [ONS, 0-19]
69,000 #LongCovidKids

Think some people are putting too much hope in vaccines. We shouldn't need to go back to lockdown but we simply have to keep some sort of sensible mitigations.

The vaccines have been superb. The 3rd jab is gonna be for everyone looking at the results. what the vaccines have been unable to do is protect the unvaccinated. Couldn't bear to think how bad letting this rip in the UK would have been without vaccines.

[dpedin]

Yep, we could take my county as a consistent evidence that masks work. Maryland one of the top 5 most vaccinated states doesn’t have mask mandate indoor, but Montgomery co does, we have constantly over half less cases than the state.

Long Covid numbers for kids and adults, they never talk or show these numbers here, eye opening
dpedin wrote

Think some people are putting too much hope in vaccines. We shouldn't need to go back to lockdown but we simply have to keep some sort of sensible mitigations.

The vaccines have been superb. The 3rd jab is gonna be for everyone looking at the results. what the vaccines have been unable to do is protect the unvaccinated. Couldn't bear to think how bad letting this rip in the UK would have been without vaccines.

Agreed - deaths would have been multiples higher both from covid and from NHS collapsing under the weight of patients and not treating others. We need to get boosters done fro everyone and extend vaccine to >5 year olds. I can't imagine what prevents folk from getting the vaccine, currently 10% across the UK eligible but not taken it, that's about 6 million folk. If we don't tackle this group of folk then we will have a huge pool for ongoing cases and deaths for some time yet. We really need to get the messaging and delivery to these groups better.

[Slick]

I seems to be everywhere at the moment. The last peaks I’ve maybe known a couple of people that have had, it but I think it’s over 10 people I know well this week alone.

About half of them were from the lunch with Brian Habana thing in Edinburgh a couple of weeks back mind you.

[petej]

2 weeks on now from 1st getting symptoms from COVID. Did a 10km run yesterday in my normal sub 50 min time. Haven't had blocked nose for about 5 days or so but lungs still getting rid of what I assume is dead cells, dead virus, mucus and white blood cells. voice is struggling. Blood o2 like 98-99% so all fine. I will still get a 3rd dose when I become eligible. My 3year old seems to have totally recovered.

[Uncle fester]

Yep, we could take my county as a consistent evidence that masks work. Maryland one of the top 5 most vaccinated states doesn’t have mask mandate indoor, but Montgomery co does, we have constantly over half less cases than the state.

Long Covid numbers for kids and adults, they never talk or show these numbers here, eye opening
dpedin wrote

Think some people are putting too much hope in vaccines. We shouldn't need to go back to lockdown but we simply have to keep some sort of sensible mitigations.

The vaccines have been superb. The 3rd jab is gonna be for everyone looking at the results. what the vaccines have been unable to do is protect the unvaccinated. Couldn't bear to think how bad letting this rip in the UK would have been without vaccines.

To clarify what I mean, there's a small proportion of people who cannot get vaccinated for genuine health reasons and those who even vaccines offer limited protection to. We as a society should be looking at sensible measures that will help protect them. Also even with vaccines, with a high transmission rate, there's more risk of vaccine-proof variants appearing. If mask wearing, hand washing and not packing into crowded social situations will slow down transmission, that's fine by me.

Like this doctor, my patience with the unvaccinated by choice is wearing thin.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... aring-thin

[dpedin]

Think some people are putting too much hope in vaccines. We shouldn't need to go back to lockdown but we simply have to keep some sort of sensible mitigations.

The vaccines have been superb. The 3rd jab is gonna be for everyone looking at the results. what the vaccines have been unable to do is protect the unvaccinated. Couldn't bear to think how bad letting this rip in the UK would have been without vaccines.

To clarify what I mean, there's a small proportion of people who cannot get vaccinated for genuine health reasons and those who even vaccines offer limited protection to. We as a society should be looking at sensible measures that will help protect them. Also even with vaccines, with a high transmission rate, there's more risk of vaccine-proof variants appearing. If mask wearing, hand washing and not packing into crowded social situations will slow down transmission, that's fine by me.

Like this doctor, my patience with the unvaccinated by choice is wearing thin.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... aring-thin

This 100%!

[dpedin]

Think some people are putting too much hope in vaccines. We shouldn't need to go back to lockdown but we simply have to keep some sort of sensible mitigations.

The vaccines have been superb. The 3rd jab is gonna be for everyone looking at the results. what the vaccines have been unable to do is protect the unvaccinated. Couldn't bear to think how bad letting this rip in the UK would have been without vaccines.

To clarify what I mean, there's a small proportion of people who cannot get vaccinated for genuine health reasons and those who even vaccines offer limited protection to. We as a society should be looking at sensible measures that will help protect them. Also even with vaccines, with a high transmission rate, there's more risk of vaccine-proof variants appearing. If mask wearing, hand washing and not packing into crowded social situations will slow down transmission, that's fine by me.

Like this doctor, my patience with the unvaccinated by choice is wearing thin.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... aring-thin

This 100%!

[dpedin]

Just when you thought the Immensa scandal couldn't get any worse .....

[petej]

Saw the immensa thing earlier and stand by my position that PCR should only be used in clinical settings and lfts in all over instances. Large scale PCR testing is a waste of money.

[tabascoboy]

At last a Booster Vaccination centre is going to open in my town, which will be a huge benefit to those struggling to find somewhere to get it. It'll be 2 weeks + before it opens and it'll just be a temporary cabin like structure but much needed extra capacity in a town centre location instead of the much harder to get to sites currently in use.

[petej]

Think some people are putting too much hope in vaccines. We shouldn't need to go back to lockdown but we simply have to keep some sort of sensible mitigations.

The vaccines have been superb. The 3rd jab is gonna be for everyone looking at the results. what the vaccines have been unable to do is protect the unvaccinated. Couldn't bear to think how bad letting this rip in the UK would have been without vaccines.

To clarify what I mean, there's a small proportion of people who cannot get vaccinated for genuine health reasons and those who even vaccines offer limited protection to. We as a society should be looking at sensible measures that will help protect them. Also even with vaccines, with a high transmission rate, there's more risk of vaccine-proof variants appearing. If mask wearing, hand washing and not packing into crowded social situations will slow down transmission, that's fine by me.

Like this doctor, my patience with the unvaccinated by choice is wearing thin.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... aring-thin

Disagree on the vaccine proof variants. Very little vaccine evasion so far. With so many having had it or been vaccinated the opportunities for mutations has decreased as people's immune systems react faster and kick it out quicker meaning less replication. I have little tolerance for those who won't get vaccinated and pity the doctors and nurses who have to treat the stupid knackers. As for those who can't have the vaccine or who have limited protection from the vaccine they are going to get it eventually regardless of what you do so unless you want them to wander around in NBC suits or isolation bubbles the whole time i worry what you propose would be a nugatory effort.

[Enzedder]

My son's partner is in health, specialises in helping paraplegics and tetraplegics at their own homes. (Bloody good money in that by the way - she earns a shitload more than I do).

One of her patients joined a group at a restaurant in Tauranga recently and has caught covid. She is a dead sitter to catch it as well (in fact she is caring for him right now) and chances are my son will too. I just hope all of their precautions work but she is sleeping in the guest room until this is over.