So, coronavirus...

[Uncle fester]

My son's partner is in health, specialises in helping paraplegics and tetraplegics at their own homes. (Bloody good money in that by the way - she earns a shitload more than I do).

One of her patients joined a group at a restaurant in Tauranga recently and has caught covid. She is a dead sitter to catch it as well (in fact she is caring for him right now) and chances are my son will too. I just hope all of their precautions work but she is sleeping in the guest room until this is over.

They both vaccinated?
It's not a fait accompli that they will catch it.
Engineer in our plant...wife sick but generic sick...gets tested as a precaution after a few days...shocked to come back positive.
Himself and their 3 kids didn't get it.

[JM2K6]

My son's partner is in health, specialises in helping paraplegics and tetraplegics at their own homes. (Bloody good money in that by the way - she earns a shitload more than I do).

One of her patients joined a group at a restaurant in Tauranga recently and has caught covid. She is a dead sitter to catch it as well (in fact she is caring for him right now) and chances are my son will too. I just hope all of their precautions work but she is sleeping in the guest room until this is over.

They both vaccinated?
It's not a fait accompli that they will catch it.
Engineer in our plant...wife sick but generic sick...gets tested as a precaution after a few days...shocked to come back positive.
Himself and their 3 kids didn't get it.

Yup. My sister and niece #1 got it, her fiance and niece #2 were just fine.

[Uncle fester]

The vaccines have been superb. The 3rd jab is gonna be for everyone looking at the results. what the vaccines have been unable to do is protect the unvaccinated. Couldn't bear to think how bad letting this rip in the UK would have been without vaccines.

To clarify what I mean, there's a small proportion of people who cannot get vaccinated for genuine health reasons and those who even vaccines offer limited protection to. We as a society should be looking at sensible measures that will help protect them. Also even with vaccines, with a high transmission rate, there's more risk of vaccine-proof variants appearing. If mask wearing, hand washing and not packing into crowded social situations will slow down transmission, that's fine by me.

Like this doctor, my patience with the unvaccinated by choice is wearing thin.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... aring-thin

Disagree on the vaccine proof variants. Very little vaccine evasion so far. With so many having had it or been vaccinated the opportunities for mutations has decreased as people's immune systems react faster and kick it out quicker meaning less replication. I have little tolerance for those who won't get vaccinated and pity the doctors and nurses who have to treat the stupid knackers. As for those who can't have the vaccine or who have limited protection from the vaccine they are going to get it eventually regardless of what you do so unless you want them to wander around in NBC suits or isolation bubbles the whole time i worry what you propose would be a nugatory effort.

Because the window hasn't broken yet, it's okay to keep hitting it?

Mutations can and do come about when the virus replicates. Most mutations are dead ends but every now and then, they can give rise to a new variant.

Reduce the number of available hosts & reduce their viral load, you reduce the number of replications and therefore you reduce probabilities for new variant.

Also, by making it harder for the virus to transfer to new hosts, you use selection pressure to point in the direction of weaker variants.

[Insane_Homer]

2 in our office over the last 2 weeks, both vaccinated. One with flu symptoms and very tired, not sure about the other.

Eligible for booster on 1 December.

Booster dose
If you think you're eligible for a booster dose and it's been more than 152 days (5 months) since your 2nd dose, please call the helpline on 119.

[Tichtheid]

There was a rather stark statement made by the German Health Minister the other night on tv news, he said that by the end of the winter he expected to have only the vaccinated, the recovered and the dead in his country.

I understand that some people cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons, and that is all the more reason for others to get vaccinated, it not only protects yourself and your family it protects others too.

What is the threshold needed for herd immunity? Isn't it more than 90% of population have to be fully vaccinated?

[JM2K6]

There was a rather stark statement made by the German Health Minister the other night on tv news, he said that by the end of the winter he expected to have only the vaccinated, the recovered and the dead in his country.

I understand that some people cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons, and that is all the more reason for others to get vaccinated, it not only protects yourself and your family it protects others too.

What is the threshold needed for herd immunity? Isn't it more than 90% of population have to be fully vaccinated?

Herd immunity can't really exist with Delta as things stand with our current vaccines - vaccinated people can still get infected, infect other people, and have serious medical problems (and even death) as a result of infection.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... d-mythical

[Tichtheid]

There was a rather stark statement made by the German Health Minister the other night on tv news, he said that by the end of the winter he expected to have only the vaccinated, the recovered and the dead in his country.

I understand that some people cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons, and that is all the more reason for others to get vaccinated, it not only protects yourself and your family it protects others too.

What is the threshold needed for herd immunity? Isn't it more than 90% of population have to be fully vaccinated?

Herd immunity can't really exist with Delta as things stand with our current vaccines - vaccinated people can still get infected, infect other people, and have serious medical problems (and even death) as a result of infection.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... d-mythical

mea culpa, wrong terminology, I saw a Nature article saying the same thing, that herd immunity isn't possible, but there must be a degree of vaccination whereby the spread is at a minimal level?

[Calculon]

There was a rather stark statement made by the German Health Minister the other night on tv news, he said that by the end of the winter he expected to have only the vaccinated, the recovered and the dead in his country.

I understand that some people cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons, and that is all the more reason for others to get vaccinated, it not only protects yourself and your family it protects others too.

What is the threshold needed for herd immunity? Isn't it more than 90% of population have to be fully vaccinated?

Herd immunity can't really exist with Delta as things stand with our current vaccines - vaccinated people can still get infected, infect other people, and have serious medical problems (and even death) as a result of infection.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... d-mythical

mea culpa, wrong terminology, I saw a Nature article saying the same thing, that herd immunity isn't possible, but there must be a degree of vaccination whereby the spread is at a minimal level?

Don't think it's really possible to separate the influence of % vaccination coverage from the multiple other factors influencing the spread of SARS cov2.

[Dinsdale Piranha]

There was a rather stark statement made by the German Health Minister the other night on tv news, he said that by the end of the winter he expected to have only the vaccinated, the recovered and the dead in his country.

I understand that some people cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons, and that is all the more reason for others to get vaccinated, it not only protects yourself and your family it protects others too.

What is the threshold needed for herd immunity? Isn't it more than 90% of population have to be fully vaccinated?

Herd immunity can't really exist with Delta as things stand with our current vaccines - vaccinated people can still get infected, infect other people, and have serious medical problems (and even death) as a result of infection.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... d-mythical

mea culpa, wrong terminology, I saw a Nature article saying the same thing, that herd immunity isn't possible, but there must be a degree of vaccination whereby the spread is at a minimal level?

Possibly not.

The COVID vaccines are much better at stopping you getting ill than stopping transmission. All the variants that have become dominant are better at transmission rather than being more harmful.

[dpedin]

Herd immunity can't really exist with Delta as things stand with our current vaccines - vaccinated people can still get infected, infect other people, and have serious medical problems (and even death) as a result of infection.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... d-mythical

mea culpa, wrong terminology, I saw a Nature article saying the same thing, that herd immunity isn't possible, but there must be a degree of vaccination whereby the spread is at a minimal level?

Possibly not.

The COVID vaccines are much better at stopping you getting ill than stopping transmission. All the variants that have become dominant are better at transmission rather than being more harmful.

Which is why we can't rely purely on vaccinations at this stage to control community transmission, cases and deaths. We need to have a range of PH mitigations ie masks, etc in place whilst we continue to vaccinate our population and get up to the max numbers possible.

[Tichtheid]

mea culpa, wrong terminology, I saw a Nature article saying the same thing, that herd immunity isn't possible, but there must be a degree of vaccination whereby the spread is at a minimal level?

Possibly not.

The COVID vaccines are much better at stopping you getting ill than stopping transmission. All the variants that have become dominant are better at transmission rather than being more harmful.

Which is why we can't rely purely on vaccinations at this stage to control community transmission, cases and deaths. We need to have a range of PH mitigations ie masks, etc in place whilst we continue to vaccinate our population and get up to the max numbers possible.

Because of the thread here on PR wingnuts on this subject, I had to go and look - it's like someone saying, "whatever you do, don't push that big red button"

Anyway, I see you're putting up the good fight against some real anti-science innumerate fuckwits.

There is a tweet about death rates from all causes running at double among the vaccinated population versus the unvaccinated - no one has pointed out which age group is unvaccinated and what is the likelihood of death by any cause by age in the UK, in short across the sexes 10 year olds have about a 1 in 10 000 chance of dying from any cause (they are the unvaccinated ones) whilst 70 years old have approximately a 1 in 50 chance of pegging it from any cause.

[dpedin]

Possibly not.

The COVID vaccines are much better at stopping you getting ill than stopping transmission. All the variants that have become dominant are better at transmission rather than being more harmful.

Which is why we can't rely purely on vaccinations at this stage to control community transmission, cases and deaths. We need to have a range of PH mitigations ie masks, etc in place whilst we continue to vaccinate our population and get up to the max numbers possible.

Because of the thread here on PR wingnuts on this subject, I had to go and look - it's like someone saying, "whatever you do, don't push that big red button"

Anyway, I see you're putting up the good fight against some real anti-science innumerate fuckwits.

There is a tweet about death rates from all causes running at double among the vaccinated population versus the unvaccinated - no one has pointed out which age group is unvaccinated and what is the likelihood of death by any cause by age in the UK, in short across the sexes 10 year olds have about a 1 in 10 000 chance of dying from any cause (they are the unvaccinated ones) whilst 70 years old have approximately a 1 in 50 chance of pegging it from any cause.

There are really some morons on PR! To be honest I have had to be at home for a day or two this week - getting new boiler fitted, car in garage - and was getting bored so decided to go back onto PR to wind up some of the morons there and have a bit of fun just by throwing in some facts and figures. I shouldn't be but I am constantly amazed about how thick some of them are or how easy it is to dismantle their nonsense and get them really angry. Ill get bored soon.

Comparing 10-60 year old vaccinated v unvaccinated death rates part way through a pandemic that kills older folk and part way through a vaccination programme that is working its way down through the age groups is just one example of the nonsense they post.

[robmatic]

Possibly not.

The COVID vaccines are much better at stopping you getting ill than stopping transmission. All the variants that have become dominant are better at transmission rather than being more harmful.

Which is why we can't rely purely on vaccinations at this stage to control community transmission, cases and deaths. We need to have a range of PH mitigations ie masks, etc in place whilst we continue to vaccinate our population and get up to the max numbers possible.

Because of the thread here on PR wingnuts on this subject, I had to go and look - it's like someone saying, "whatever you do, don't push that big red button"

Anyway, I see you're putting up the good fight against some real anti-science innumerate fuckwits.

There is a tweet about death rates from all causes running at double among the vaccinated population versus the unvaccinated - no one has pointed out which age group is unvaccinated and what is the likelihood of death by any cause by age in the UK, in short across the sexes 10 year olds have about a 1 in 10 000 chance of dying from any cause (they are the unvaccinated ones) whilst 70 years old have approximately a 1 in 50 chance of pegging it from any cause.

Unfortunately there is a significant number of people who are statistically illiterate and don't know it.

[dpedin]

Which is why we can't rely purely on vaccinations at this stage to control community transmission, cases and deaths. We need to have a range of PH mitigations ie masks, etc in place whilst we continue to vaccinate our population and get up to the max numbers possible.

Because of the thread here on PR wingnuts on this subject, I had to go and look - it's like someone saying, "whatever you do, don't push that big red button"

Anyway, I see you're putting up the good fight against some real anti-science innumerate fuckwits.

There is a tweet about death rates from all causes running at double among the vaccinated population versus the unvaccinated - no one has pointed out which age group is unvaccinated and what is the likelihood of death by any cause by age in the UK, in short across the sexes 10 year olds have about a 1 in 10 000 chance of dying from any cause (they are the unvaccinated ones) whilst 70 years old have approximately a 1 in 50 chance of pegging it from any cause.

Unfortunately there is a significant number of people who are statistically illiterate and don't know it.

Agreed! I'm quickly becoming bored with the nutters on PR now .. footie on tv and hopefully freezing my bollocks on the golf course tomorrow so someone else can take the reins and wind them up a bit more! Time for a G&T.

[Ovals]

Don't like the look of that new, highly mutated, variant from South Africa

[Uncle fester]

Don't like the look of that new, highly mutated, variant from South Africa

Yeah, no spike in this one or it's very different?

[Sandstorm]

Don't like the look of that new, highly mutated, variant from South Africa

Yeah, no spike in this one or it's very different?

Called the Rassie variant. No-one likes it.

[convoluted]

Some of us watched at least part of the NZ-India one-dayers last week.

Remember how just 6 months ago it seemed like 'Last one left alive in India turn the lights off'?
Yet the crowds at each of those recent games, hosted by three different cities, were packed in as tight as and with nary a mask to be seen.

Currently only 27% of the population is full vaxxed; 55% with at least one dose. But as far back as July, with only 13 % fully vaxxed, 68% had the antibodies (I believe today it's 97% in Delhi).

I'll let you who follow the covid science fill me in with the explanation of how it has all turned around in India.

[Enzedder]

How long will it be before a variant comes along that has fangs for teeth and has an ebola type mortality rate. I can almost sense it building up to something like that

[TB63]

Don't like the look of that new, highly mutated, variant from South Africa

Yeah, no spike in this one or it's very different?

27 different protein spikes.
Flights from 6 African countries banned.
Build a fort time..

[convoluted]

If this one does take off and the vaccines prove ineffective, betcha it's the Trumpie-mockers who head the stampede for "horse dewormer".

[mat the expat]

I'll be headed to the hills if this one gets into other countries

[FalseBayFC]

Its was discovered on 11 November so quite possibly been alive and circulating since October if not earlier.

[Calculon]

Don't like the look of that new, highly mutated, variant from South Africa

Yeah, no spike in this one or it's very different?

The spike protein allows the virus to bind to bind to the cell , and then fuse the viral and cellular envelopes. So it needs the spike protein to gain entry into the cell. The spike protein also plays an important role in disease severity by damaging vascular epithelial cells, inhibiting mitochondria and inflammation in the EC.

This variant has more mutations on the spike protein but the effect on transmissibility, ability to evade immune system, and disease severity is not fully understood.

[Slick]

Don't like the look of that new, highly mutated, variant from South Africa

Yeah, no spike in this one or it's very different?

27 different protein spikes.
Flights from 6 African countries banned.
Build a fort time..

Arrived just in time for our government really, we can now move on and blame everything on this in time for Christmas.

On a wider international level isn’t this exactly what we were told would happen if we didn’t do our best to ensure a more equitable spread of vaccines across the world?

[tc27]

Despite the travel ban I have no doubt the new variant is now everywhere including the UK. Optimistic scenerio is that its not as bad as thought and its dominance.cam be delayed.

[Paddington Bear]

This sounds like horrendous news. Does this ever end?

[Slick]

Despite the travel ban I have no doubt the new variant is now everywhere including the UK. Optimistic scenerio is that its not as bad as thought and its dominance.cam be delayed.

The rest of Europe to follow this afternoon

[dpedin]

Despite the travel ban I have no doubt the new variant is now everywhere including the UK. Optimistic scenerio is that its not as bad as thought and its dominance.cam be delayed.

Agreed that it is probably here, in minute numbers and hopefully our excellent genomic testing processes will pick it up, but at least the Blonde Bumblecunt and the Brexit Ultras have learnt from the Delta fiasco and acted quickly! They must have decided there are votes in it. I too am keeping fingers crossed that this mutation isn't as bad as feared but hearing that the scientists have previously done various computer modelling about possible mutations and this was one of their worst case scenarios ... the scientists on Twitter who know about this stuff aren't too optimistic. I understand work is underway to assess the impact on current vaccinations. If it is worst case and the vaccinations are not effective then it doesn't take long, just days for them to develop a new vaccine 'recipe' but production and roll out of a 4th booster will take time. (Actually my mates brother is scientist in AZ and speaking to him he says it would take him an afternoon to adapt the vaccine once he has the info from genomic sequencing)

If it turns out bad then we need to keep this mutation out of the country or at as low levels as possible for the winter and concurrently really accelerate vaccinations, including kids over 5, and boosters as much as possible. We also need messaging from the BB to start wearing masks, social distancing, improve ventilation, etc and really work hard to slow down community transmission over the winter to avoid this mutation escaping into wider communities as much as possible.

If this mutation ends up as the worst case scenario then we need to get serious again about covid but I'm not too sure the current PM and his Gov have the credibility, leadership ability or skills to do this.

[Slick]

This sounds like horrendous news. Does this ever end?

I’ve been having the same thoughts this morning, how the hell do we end this. It’s quite depressing.

It really looks like we are going to have to get more draconian and we are 100% going to have to stop with the platitude bollocks and get the rest of the world vaccinated

[Slick]

Cardiff and Scarlets on their way back home from SA

[Biffer]

This sounds like horrendous news. Does this ever end?

I’ve been having the same thoughts this morning, how the hell do we end this. It’s quite depressing.

It really looks like we are going to have to get more draconian and we are 100% going to have to stop with the platitude bollocks and get the rest of the world vaccinated

Fundamentally, remember this is not unique. We've had worse pandemics in human history and they've passed. We've got better medicine and science to work our way through this one. Respiratory pandemics generally last a couple of years, and maybe have one or two recurring outbreaks in the three or four years after that, but they tend to be shorter and localised. I reckon once we're through this NH winter we'll be pretty much past it, although it'll have an effect on our health systems for a long time, primarily because it'll still be a threat to those who have underlying conditions.

What it'll do otherwise is turbocharge the work of this century - the century of Biotech. Human lifespans will increase by 20-30 years thus century.

[Slick]

This sounds like horrendous news. Does this ever end?

I’ve been having the same thoughts this morning, how the hell do we end this. It’s quite depressing.

It really looks like we are going to have to get more draconian and we are 100% going to have to stop with the platitude bollocks and get the rest of the world vaccinated

Fundamentally, remember this is not unique. We've had worse pandemics in human history and they've passed. We've got better medicine and science to work our way through this one. Respiratory pandemics generally last a couple of years, and maybe have one or two recurring outbreaks in the three or four years after that, but they tend to be shorter and localised. I reckon once we're through this NH winter we'll be pretty much past it, although it'll have an effect on our health systems for a long time, primarily because it'll still be a threat to those who have underlying conditions.

What it'll do otherwise is turbocharge the work of this century - the century of Biotech. Human lifespans will increase by 20-30 years thus century.

Thanks, that makes me feel a bit better.

Invitation to my 125th in the post

[dpedin]

I’ve been having the same thoughts this morning, how the hell do we end this. It’s quite depressing.

It really looks like we are going to have to get more draconian and we are 100% going to have to stop with the platitude bollocks and get the rest of the world vaccinated

Fundamentally, remember this is not unique. We've had worse pandemics in human history and they've passed. We've got better medicine and science to work our way through this one. Respiratory pandemics generally last a couple of years, and maybe have one or two recurring outbreaks in the three or four years after that, but they tend to be shorter and localised. I reckon once we're through this NH winter we'll be pretty much past it, although it'll have an effect on our health systems for a long time, primarily because it'll still be a threat to those who have underlying conditions.

What it'll do otherwise is turbocharge the work of this century - the century of Biotech. Human lifespans will increase by 20-30 years thus century.

Thanks, that makes me feel a bit better.

Invitation to my 125th in the post

Biffer - you can't be Scottish showing this unending optimism and belief in human nature! Where is the pessimistic Calvinism we are proud of?

[Calculon]

Despite the travel ban I have no doubt the new variant is now everywhere including the UK. Optimistic scenerio is that its not as bad as thought and its dominance.cam be delayed.

. I too am keeping fingers crossed that this mutation isn't as bad as feared but hearing that the scientists have previously done various computer modelling about possible mutations and this was one of their worst case scenarios ... the scientists on Twitter who know about this stuff aren't too optimistic. I understand work is underway to assess the impact on current vaccinations.
.

Worth noting that the scientists working on this in SA are fairly relaxed about the new variant. They think it likely that the vaccine will continue to offer high levels of protect against hospitalisations and deaths. Also the severity of infection likely to be similar to delta.

we will find out within the next few weeks.

Best case scenario is of course that severity of infection is less than that for delta.

[GogLais]

I’ve been having the same thoughts this morning, how the hell do we end this. It’s quite depressing.

It really looks like we are going to have to get more draconian and we are 100% going to have to stop with the platitude bollocks and get the rest of the world vaccinated

Fundamentally, remember this is not unique. We've had worse pandemics in human history and they've passed. We've got better medicine and science to work our way through this one. Respiratory pandemics generally last a couple of years, and maybe have one or two recurring outbreaks in the three or four years after that, but they tend to be shorter and localised. I reckon once we're through this NH winter we'll be pretty much past it, although it'll have an effect on our health systems for a long time, primarily because it'll still be a threat to those who have underlying conditions.

What it'll do otherwise is turbocharge the work of this century - the century of Biotech. Human lifespans will increase by 20-30 years thus century.

Thanks, that makes me feel a bit better.

Invitation to my 125th in the post

Just did one of these online how long will I live things. I gave me 89, I’m 72 and I thought “What the hell am I going to do for the next 17 years?”. Ok if I’m healthy for most of it I guess.

[Biffer]

Fundamentally, remember this is not unique. We've had worse pandemics in human history and they've passed. We've got better medicine and science to work our way through this one. Respiratory pandemics generally last a couple of years, and maybe have one or two recurring outbreaks in the three or four years after that, but they tend to be shorter and localised. I reckon once we're through this NH winter we'll be pretty much past it, although it'll have an effect on our health systems for a long time, primarily because it'll still be a threat to those who have underlying conditions.

What it'll do otherwise is turbocharge the work of this century - the century of Biotech. Human lifespans will increase by 20-30 years thus century.

Thanks, that makes me feel a bit better.

Invitation to my 125th in the post

Biffer - you can't be Scottish showing this unending optimism and belief in human nature! Where is the pessimistic Calvinism we are proud of?

Ach, we're a country of scientific progress, invention and parties. It's not all shite.

[dpedin]

[Rinkals]

[petej]

Not a lack of vaccine in SA. Hopefully, the delayed doses go somewhere they are needed and wanted. I suspect thanks to the social media giants vaccination drives have been undermined.

https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2021/south-a ... ions-slow/