So, coronavirus...

[dpedin]

Immensa scandal isn't going away anytime soon. How and why they got the contracts and what due diligence was put in place will be interesting?

[petej]

Some of the antibody testing results have come in. Looks like protection against infection will be much reduced for the vaxxed. Those vaxxed and been infected it holds up much better against infection (pretty good for the UK considering our crapness about people getting infected and our on-going delta wave).

[Kiwias]

A timely description of life in the emergency ward of a US hospital in a state with low vaccination rates.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/08/opin ... 4c004ee1ce

Like in the rest of Michigan, an overwhelming majority of patients in our hospital are unvaccinated, including 98 percent of acute critical care patients. Given that only about 62 percent of Michigan residents have had at least one dose of vaccine, lagging behind the national rate by about nine points, I fear we won’t see an end to the tide of sick people anytime soon, and hospitals can absorb only so many surges.

With every shift, I see the strain people sick with Covid-19 put on my hospital. Their choice to not get vaccinated is not personal. It forces patients with ruptured appendixes and broken bones to wait for hours in my emergency department; it postpones surgeries for countless other people and burns out doctors and nurses.

[Rinkals]

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article ... -debunked/

Ironically, South Africa has one of the best developed networks for molecular or PCR testing in the world — in all likelihood better than that of Canada — because the same technique is used for HIV viral load testing for which the country, over the past two decades, has developed an exceptionally well-established infrastructure because of its high HIV burden. At the beginning of the Covid pandemic, South Africa was therefore able to start with Covid testing much quicker than many other countries.

Across the Atlantic, France revealed its own set of rules: Only French and EU residents, diplomats and flight crews are allowed to disembark on French soil if a plane passed through a southern African country; regardless of whether those people were exposed to potentially infected people in those countries or not; if they have the correct passport, they can disembark.

Absurdly, sequencing data from South Africa, published in the journal Nature, shows that Europe was responsible for more than 80% of the early introductions of SARS-CoV-2 infections in South Africa. And although most flights, regardless of which country, were put on hold around the world, including in South Africa, Europe didn’t face any selective restrictions from our government.

[Biffer]

South Africa does indeed have a very good infrastructure for genetic sequencing and testing but the problem is scale. When you look at the number of tests carried out per head of population it's still way too low to monitor the pandemic properly. That's not a criticism, it's very difficult for a country that isn't high income to do it, and let's face it even most of those haven't done it in an exemplary way. For comparison SA has done around 370k tests for every million people, the UK has done about 5.5million for every million people. Botswana has done double the rate of tests that South Africa has done, it's one of the leaders in Africa.

My point here is that this is a key area for long term investment from overseas aid. It makes massive sense domestically and internationally. High value jobs, the associated education, exportable services etc can all come from this area, helping Southern Africa to become a leader in viral, genomic analysis. The benefit to the world community is increased monitoring and advance highlighting of future pandemic threats.

[Calculon]

What type of tests? Its not a competition to see who can test or sequence the most. SA will never be able to get the percentage cases sequenced to anywhere the likes of the UK or the USA, especially when case numbers are high. Nor should it even attempt to do this. It’s about targeting the right samples, and then having the knowledge and infrastructure to analyse and publicise the results quickly. As far as the discovery of Omicron in SA it appears to that a few GP’s noticed unusual symptoms in their patients, sent their samples for PCR ID, The lab they sent it to (Lancet laboratories) had the basic knowledge to realise that the results looked a bit strange (no S band on the gel), had the foresight then to get the samples sequenced and once this was done the results where quickly analysed and released to the world. Lancet laboratories is just an ordinary private and commercial laboratory that anyone can use to get their PCR COVID test done for around 34 quid. Obviously nothing like Immensa labs and maybe the pressure of testing high numbers led to the Immensa lab scandal. The whole process from collecting samples to having the new variant publicised happened within something like a week, in the USA it would have taken a month.

[Biffer]

What type of tests? Its not a competition to see who can test or sequence the most. SA will never be able to get the percentage cases sequenced to anywhere the likes of the UK or the USA, especially when case numbers are high. Nor should it even attempt to do this. It’s about targeting the right samples, and then having the knowledge and infrastructure to analyse and publicise the results quickly. As far as the discovery of Omicron in SA it appears to that a few GP’s noticed unusual symptoms in their patients, sent their samples for PCR ID, The lab they sent it to (Lancet laboratories) had the basic knowledge to realise that the results looked a bit strange (no S band on the gel), had the foresight then to get the samples sequenced and once this was done the results where quickly analysed and released to the world. Lancet laboratories is just an ordinary private and commercial laboratory that anyone can use to get their PCR COVID test done for around 34 quid. Obviously nothing like Immensa labs and maybe the pressure of testing high numbers led to the Immensa lab scandal. The whole process from collecting samples to having the new variant publicised happened within something like a week, in the USA it would have taken a month.

Of course it's not a competition and South Africa has, as I said, a very good infrastructure, but it's limited in scale. And the better your test and trace capability is, the more you can follow the way outbreaks develop, which gives you more options around public health management. The UK having a shower of arseholes giving their mates contracts doesn't mean that is untrue.

All I'm saying here is that there's an opportunity to invest in building that capability further in South Africa which will result in a win-win both domestically and in the wider international community.

[Sandstorm]

So what have you guys got planned for the evening of the 18th?

[tabascoboy]

Two doses of a Covid vaccine are not enough to stop you catching the Omicron variant, UK scientists have warned.

Early analysis of UK Omicron and Delta cases showed the vaccines were less effective at stopping the new variant.

However, a third booster dose significantly increased protection to around 75%.

The UK Health Security Agency said vaccines were still likely to offer good protection against severe Covid that needed hospital treatment.

The concern since the heavily mutated Omicron variant first emerged was that it would make vaccines less effective.

Scientists analysed data from 581 Omicron cases and thousands of Delta cases to calculate how effective the vaccines were against the new variant.

It showed a dramatic drop in effectiveness for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine and a significant drop off for two doses of Pfizer.

However, the third dose increased the protection against getting Covid symptoms to between 70 and 75%.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005

Hopefully a combination of the two mitigates the drop from AZ alone...

[petej]

Combinations with AZ and mRNA vaccines seem to work well on the antibody levels.

I think we can end the travel bans.

[Lemoentjie]

On Dec. 10, the World Health Organization told us no omicron cases reported up to that date had resulted in death, but "it is still early in the clinical course of disease and this may change."

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/omicron-deaths/

All this panic over a variant that hasn't resulted in any deaths

[Calculon]

On Dec. 10, the World Health Organization told us no omicron cases reported up to that date had resulted in death, but "it is still early in the clinical course of disease and this may change."

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/omicron-deaths/

All this panic over a variant that hasn't resulted in any deaths

You still refusing to get vaccinated?

[GogLais]

On Dec. 10, the World Health Organization told us no omicron cases reported up to that date had resulted in death, but "it is still early in the clinical course of disease and this may change."

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/omicron-deaths/

All this panic over a variant that hasn't resulted in any deaths

So you're telling us that it hasn't resulted in any deaths and quoting something that says it's still early in the course of the disease?

[Calculon]

No confirmed deaths from Omicron and mounting evidence it causes less severe infections than Delta. Community transmission of Omicron in the UK makes the travel ban even more nonsensical.

[Sandstorm]

No confirmed deaths from Omicron and mounting evidence it causes less severe infections than Delta. Community transmission of Omicron in the UK makes the travel ban even more nonsensical.

Yeah, we agree. Good news for patients everywhere.

[GogLais]

No confirmed deaths from Omicron and mounting evidence it causes less severe infections than Delta. Community transmission of Omicron in the UK makes the travel ban even more nonsensical.

Isn't the issue that Omicron may not cause more severe infections but it does look that it may spread much more effectively? It's a a bit early for deaths anyway. You may well be right that the horse has bolted re travel.

[Uncle fester]

No confirmed deaths from Omicron and mounting evidence it causes less severe infections than Delta. Community transmission of Omicron in the UK makes the travel ban even more nonsensical.

Brits are expecting between 25k and 75k deaths under current restrictions.

BBC News - Covid: Omicron study suggests major wave in January
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59621029

[Biffer]

No confirmed deaths from Omicron and mounting evidence it causes less severe infections than Delta. Community transmission of Omicron in the UK makes the travel ban even more nonsensical.

Isn't the issue that Omicron may not cause more severe infections but it does look that it may spread much more effectively? It's a a bit early for deaths anyway. You may well be right that the horse has bolted re travel.

Yep. The 'less severe' thing might be an artifact of increased immune escape.

[Calculon]

No confirmed deaths from Omicron and mounting evidence it causes less severe infections than Delta. Community transmission of Omicron in the UK makes the travel ban even more nonsensical.

Isn't the issue that Omicron may not cause more severe infections but it does look that it may spread much more effectively? It's a a bit early for deaths anyway. You may well be right that the horse has bolted re travel.

Milder infections but yes, and it seems that your current restrictions are doing little to slow the spread. So unless you're prepared to do another lockdown..... Assessments of severity including deaths in south Africa is taking the lag factor into account. So definitely not to early to notice an increase in covid deaths which isn't happening, but will get a better picture within next few weeks.

[Calculon]

No confirmed deaths from Omicron and mounting evidence it causes less severe infections than Delta. Community transmission of Omicron in the UK makes the travel ban even more nonsensical.

Brits are expecting between 25k and 75k deaths under current restrictions.

BBC News - Covid: Omicron study suggests major wave in January
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59621029

The NHS seems to be always on the point of being overwhelmed. Covid is becoming endemic, seasonal and generally less severe, this variant is part of that. You might have a few more tough winters ahead.

[Lemoentjie]

On Dec. 10, the World Health Organization told us no omicron cases reported up to that date had resulted in death, but "it is still early in the clinical course of disease and this may change."

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/omicron-deaths/

All this panic over a variant that hasn't resulted in any deaths

So you're telling us that it hasn't resulted in any deaths and quoting something that says it's still early in the course of the disease?

It's been around since October. Tens of thousands of cases.

[petej]

No confirmed deaths from Omicron and mounting evidence it causes less severe infections than Delta. Community transmission of Omicron in the UK makes the travel ban even more nonsensical.

Brits are expecting between 25k and 75k deaths under current restrictions.

BBC News - Covid: Omicron study suggests major wave in January
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59621029

The NHS seems to be always on the point of being overwhelmed. Covid is becoming endemic, seasonal and generally less severe, this variant is part of that. You might have a few more tough winters ahead.

By design. It is ran lean to minimise cost but that gives you no excess capacity and low resilience.

[Calculon]

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/omicron-deaths/

All this panic over a variant that hasn't resulted in any deaths

So you're telling us that it hasn't resulted in any deaths and quoting something that says it's still early in the course of the disease?

It's been around since October. Tens of thousands of cases.

Not of confirmed cases, which helps with no confirmed deaths figure. You still anti vax?

[GogLais]

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/omicron-deaths/

All this panic over a variant that hasn't resulted in any deaths

So you're telling us that it hasn't resulted in any deaths and quoting something that says it's still early in the course of the disease?

It's been around since October. Tens of thousands of cases.

First identified on 24 November according to WHO, obviously it would have been around before then, I've no idea how long before. But even say late October, you'd only be seeing any significant rise in deaths about now and anyway there wouldn't have been that many cases of Omicron in late October/early November.

[Calculon]

Lag between cases and deaths obviously vary a lot but one study found it to be on average around 8 days. It might be longer with Omicron in South Africa but all indications from hospitals is that the symptoms are milder than in the previous 3 waves, quite noticeably so.

The Omicron wave in Gauteng appears to have already peaked and is starting to fall, so there won't be any restrictions brought in.

Gauteng, South Africa has peaked with case levels similar to Delta, but with deaths expected to be 25 times lower.

[GogLais]

Lag between cases and deaths obviously vary a lot but one study found it to be on average around 8 days. It might be longer with Omicron in South Africa but all indications from hospitals is that the symptoms are milder than in the previous 3 waves, quite noticeably so.

The Omicron wave in Gauteng appears to have already peaked and is starting to fall, so there won't be any restrictions brought in.

Gauteng, South Africa has peaked with case levels similar to Delta, but with deaths expected to be 25 times lower.

Eight days between cases and deaths? Off the top of my head in the UK I'd guess it's a week or two between a case beginning and entry to hospital and death two or three weeks later, with wide variations no doubt. Of course I'll be delighted if it pans out like you say but I wouldn't blame the UK Gov't if turns out that they over-reacted when faced with a mutation that seemed to spread far more quickly.

[Calculon]

? Lag between when case is reported and death, not when infection occurs. I've only read the abstract.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8431868/


This might turn out to be an amazingly short wave

Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
1/

Everybody likes graphs

This from a variant with around 5 times more antibody evasion than Beta, which has itself more than Delta. There will be many, many breakthrough infections, mostly all mild.

Maybe this will translate differently in the UK but seems unlikely to be that different. Despite the rapid increase in case numbers, from around 200 a day to 20,000, SA government unlikely to introduce restrictions. Those that exist are very, very lax. The SA medical fraternity are relaxed about Omicron, bigger pressure on the health service is because of isolation of hospital staff because of positive test. Not because of number of patients or the severity of their illness.

[Ymx]

The SA medical fraternity are relaxed about Omicron, bigger pressure on the health service is because of isolation of hospital staff because of positive test. Not because of number of patients or the severity of their illness.

That’s a really interesting point. Staff reduced due to needing to isolate, which affects capacity.

Perhaps once more is known about it, it becomes treated more like a regular illness for medical staff (who I assume are all vaxed).

[tabascoboy]

Lag between cases and deaths obviously vary a lot but one study found it to be on average around 8 days. It might be longer with Omicron in South Africa but all indications from hospitals is that the symptoms are milder than in the previous 3 waves, quite noticeably so.

The Omicron wave in Gauteng appears to have already peaked and is starting to fall, so there won't be any restrictions brought in.

Gauteng, South Africa has peaked with case levels similar to Delta, but with deaths expected to be 25 times lower.

Eight days between cases and deaths? Off the top of my head in the UK I'd guess it's a week or two between a case beginning and entry to hospital and death two or three weeks later, with wide variations no doubt. Of course I'll be delighted if it pans out like you say but I wouldn't blame the UK Gov't if turns out that they over-reacted when faced with a mutation that seemed to spread far more quickly.

Think it's good to be a little wary of direct comparisons between SA and the UK since while it is summer there it is winter here and we saw a distinct change in the effects of COVID in our summer. Add our cold, wet weather into the mix, people spending more time in unventilated indoor spaces and you'd expect that along with the seasonal increase of flu it might well impact somewhat more. Let's hope anyway that the vaccine and booster combination does help stem any surge in serious cases.

[Biffer]

Main criticism of UK govt action previously has been how slow they were to react both at the start of the pandemic and before Christmas last year. If we’re over reacting quickly this time, I’m ok with that.

[Ymx]

Speaking of which, the SA red list is now looking ridiculous to continue with, given that omicron is going to be our main strain in about a week.

[Calculon]

Speaking of which, the SA red list is now looking ridiculous to continue with, given that omicron is going to be our main strain in about a week.

Purely political decision. The government was slaughtered last time for not acting quick enough so now they have to appear extra tough to appease the voters.

[Rinkals]

Does anyone get the Telegraph?

My Sister subscribes and she tells me that there is an article which claims that the parties at Number 10 proves that the virus is a hoax.

Is this a widely held view in the UK?

[tabascoboy]

The UK's coronavirus alert level has been raised from three to four due to the spread of Omicron, the UK's chief medical officers have said.

The last time the UK was at level four was in May.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due to make a televised statement on Covid on BBC One at 20:00 GMT on Sunday.

He is expected to provide an update on the booster programme. The BBC has been told there will not be any more new rules announced.

On Sunday evening, the chief medical officers for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland said they were recommending the alert level is raised from three to four - signifying that Covid is spreading fast.

Risks are measured by a five-level, colour-coded system - level four means a high or rising level of transmission.

That system is separate and independent from any government decisions on easing or tightening rules.

[petej]

Does anyone get the Telegraph?

My Sister subscribes and she tells me that there is an article which claims that the parties at Number 10 proves that the virus is a hoax.

Is this a widely held view in the UK?

No.
The telegraph more than any other paper in the UK including the tabloids is pretty much a Johnson fanzine. He worked for them for a very long time.

[petej]

Speaking of which, the SA red list is now looking ridiculous to continue with, given that omicron is going to be our main strain in about a week.

Purely political decision. The government was slaughtered last time for not acting quick enough so now they have to appear extra tough to appease the voters.

Pretty much the whole uk scientific community has pointed out it is pointless for the last week. France, Switzerland dropped the travel bans a few of days ago.

[Sandstorm]

Does anyone get the Telegraph?

My Sister subscribes and she tells me that there is an article which claims that the parties at Number 10 proves that the virus is a hoax.

Is this a widely held view in the UK?

Mate, your sister is a moron. Anything she tells you is wrong or stupid.

[salanya]

Main criticism of UK govt action previously has been how slow they were to react both at the start of the pandemic and before Christmas last year. If we’re over reacting quickly this time, I’m ok with that.

Technically I agree.

But at the same time I feel this current government Omicron scare and Boris' booster broadcast tonight is all about spin and deflection. The motivation is probably (and I only say 'probably' to be kind) still mostly about protecting his own position, rather than the health of the nation.

[FalseBayFC]

The SA medical fraternity are relaxed about Omicron, bigger pressure on the health service is because of isolation of hospital staff because of positive test. Not because of number of patients or the severity of their illness.

That’s a really interesting point. Staff reduced due to needing to isolate, which affects capacity.

Perhaps once more is known about it, it becomes treated more like a regular illness for medical staff (who I assume are all vaxed).

My daughter is a speech and hearing therapy student in 4th year. They also do swallowing and dysphagia therapy. A lot of severe Covid patients have voice and swallowing issues. She's been on the wards at Tygerberg for a year now. Had a J and J shot and recently a booster. Fourth wave has hit Cape Town but still not much pressure on the wards. They're already building capacity for January when shit gets real. Omicron might be mild but the infection rates are ramping up so quickly that we may be overwhelmed by a tsunami.

[Rinkals]

Does anyone get the Telegraph?

My Sister subscribes and she tells me that there is an article which claims that the parties at Number 10 proves that the virus is a hoax.

Is this a widely held view in the UK?

No.
The telegraph more than any other paper in the UK including the tabloids is pretty much a Johnson fanzine. He worked for them for a very long time.

My mother and two sisters have a subscription and I'll swear that they have become ultra fascists as a direct result.

Mind you, that they listen to Julia Hartly-Brewer doesn't help, either.

They regard the pandemic as a ploy to cow a pliant population over what they regard as nothing more than a mild cold.