So, coronavirus...

[fishfoodie]

A lot of care and penmanship has gone into that:

'lut bsv nidus,
Bois Jruse''


Can the man actually write?!

I think that's Latin for; "Get back to work, you plebs"

[Blackmac]

If you were listening that is not what she said from the 3,117 new case yes 110 were confirmed to be down to Omicron , however the S gene dropout - a good indication of Omicron levels - is currently present in 27.5% of cases

Is more down to your understanding of the data that has been presented , rather than any SG Arithmetic

That is certainly not the way she put it. She described how Omicron is indicated by the S gene drop out and then said that they now represent 27.5% of all cases. It's completely splitting hairs to suggest otherwise and we all know that is exactly the way she wanted it to be interpreted.

Precisely , The interpretation is that exactly that the variant now represents 27.5% , That's exactly what she was trying to get over - on purpose , or guess what people would gab onto the 'only 110 out of 3117
Which figure do you think is more accurate 3.52% ( 110/3117) or the 27.5% presented by the S gene dropout ?

Or do you believe that the SG 'just got the "arithmetic wrong "

No, I think they are deliberately misrepresenting the true scale of the Omicron issue in order to further their obvious aim of discouraging socialising during the festive season.

Also can you explain why only 110 of around 1000 have been confirmed. Surely they are either positive Omicron cases or not.

[Dogbert]

That is certainly not the way she put it. She described how Omicron is indicated by the S gene drop out and then said that they now represent 27.5% of all cases. It's completely splitting hairs to suggest otherwise and we all know that is exactly the way she wanted it to be interpreted.

Precisely , The interpretation is that exactly that the variant now represents 27.5% , That's exactly what she was trying to get over - on purpose , or guess what people would gab onto the 'only 110 out of 3117
Which figure do you think is more accurate 3.52% ( 110/3117) or the 27.5% presented by the S gene dropout ?

Or do you believe that the SG 'just got the "arithmetic wrong "

No, I think they are deliberately misrepresenting the true scale of the Omicron issue in order to further their obvious aim of discouraging socialising during the festive season.

Also can you explain why only 110 of around 1000 have been confirmed. Surely they are either positive Omicron cases or not.

I'm no medical expert , but my understanding is this - The S gene drop out is a marker for the presence of the Omnicron variant , but not definite proof - The definite proof can only be confirmed by a genome scan

The S gene dropout test is a useful surrogate and a quick fix. Other variants and mutations can also cause a dropout. I suspect that they will only confirm a Positive for Omnicron with a full Genome sequence

So its a bit more complicated than "either positive Omicron cases or not"

If any of the above is incorrect - then maybe another poster who has more experience can confirm / clarify

The best information that all the governments / devolved administrations in the UK is that this variant is much more infectious and will shortly become dominant , with the potential for large numbers of Hospitalisations

Do you believe that all the administrations are 'scaremongering' ( or just the Scottish one )

[petej]

That is certainly not the way she put it. She described how Omicron is indicated by the S gene drop out and then said that they now represent 27.5% of all cases. It's completely splitting hairs to suggest otherwise and we all know that is exactly the way she wanted it to be interpreted.

Precisely , The interpretation is that exactly that the variant now represents 27.5% , That's exactly what she was trying to get over - on purpose , or guess what people would gab onto the 'only 110 out of 3117
Which figure do you think is more accurate 3.52% ( 110/3117) or the 27.5% presented by the S gene dropout ?

Or do you believe that the SG 'just got the "arithmetic wrong "

No, I think they are deliberately misrepresenting the true scale of the Omicron issue in order to further their obvious aim of discouraging socialising during the festive season.

Also can you explain why only 110 of around 1000 have been confirmed. Surely they are either positive Omicron cases or not.

I would assume because not all labs test can confirm s-gene drop out and not all s-gene drop outs will be omicron and not all omicron will have s-gene drop outs but most will so it is a fair assumption. I think it takes further effort and testing to confirm omicron so you will sample some of the results (say 400 as 110 is 27.5% of 400) randomly to get validate the s-gene drop out% is correct say to say +-0.5%.

[Sandstorm]

If 3% of new infections are Omicron, then that’s bad. It means the more dangerous Delta is still running wild out there.

So restrictions are still a good idea IMO.

[Blackmac]

Precisely , The interpretation is that exactly that the variant now represents 27.5% , That's exactly what she was trying to get over - on purpose , or guess what people would gab onto the 'only 110 out of 3117
Which figure do you think is more accurate 3.52% ( 110/3117) or the 27.5% presented by the S gene dropout ?

Or do you believe that the SG 'just got the "arithmetic wrong "

No, I think they are deliberately misrepresenting the true scale of the Omicron issue in order to further their obvious aim of discouraging socialising during the festive season.

Also can you explain why only 110 of around 1000 have been confirmed. Surely they are either positive Omicron cases or not.

I'm no medical expert , but my understanding is this - The S gene drop out is a marker for the presence of the Omnicron variant , but not definite proof - The definite proof can only be confirmed by a genome scan

The S gene dropout test is a useful surrogate and a quick fix. Other variants and mutations can also cause a dropout. I suspect that they will only confirm a Positive for Omnicron with a full Genome sequence

So its a bit more complicated than "either positive Omicron cases or not"

If any of the above is incorrect - then maybe another poster who has more experience can confirm / clarify

The best information that all the governments / devolved administrations in the UK is that this variant is much more infectious and will shortly become dominant , with the potential for large numbers of Hospitalisations

Do you believe that all the administrations are 'scaremongering' ( or just the Scottish one )

I'm not a conspiracy theorist and given the fact I have spent my whole life in public service I always presume that governments are trying to do right by the population. Whilst I don't think they are looking to do any harm I certainly think that they have seized on the opportunity of Omicron to impose their will without having to legislate too much. Sadly I also think both the current Scottish and Westminster governments are rotten to the core and completely untrustworthy.

I'll admit I do not understand the science behind the testing situation but if they are only able to confirm 10% of the potential Omicron cases on a daily basis we either have a significant public health failing or as I sadly believe, they are deliberately overstating the problem to frighten the populace into compliance. PHE are claiming over 200000 cases with only 4000 confirmed.

If the testing is lagging so far behind are we soon to see the massive increase in cases they are predicting.

[fishfoodie]

If 3% of new infections are Omicron, then that’s bad. It means the more dangerous Delta is still running wild out there.

So restrictions are still a good idea IMO.

You're falling into the trap of not running the numbers.

It sounds good, when you hear that, virus A, kills only 1% of the people it infects; versus virus B; that kills 10% of the people that it infects.

That is, until you find out that A is 50x more transmissible; so even the lack of lethality; is more than made up by the transmissably; & that is even before you consider the fact that vaccines deal more effectively with Delta, than Omicron.

Most of the UK is immunized against Delta; either thru vaccine, or because they were exposed to it.

Omicron is a risk; because it is vastly more infectious than Delta; & it is arriving at the worst possible time of the year; & when vaccines are at a low ebb

[Dogbert]

No, I think they are deliberately misrepresenting the true scale of the Omicron issue in order to further their obvious aim of discouraging socialising during the festive season.

Also can you explain why only 110 of around 1000 have been confirmed. Surely they are either positive Omicron cases or not.

I'm no medical expert , but my understanding is this - The S gene drop out is a marker for the presence of the Omnicron variant , but not definite proof - The definite proof can only be confirmed by a genome scan

The S gene dropout test is a useful surrogate and a quick fix. Other variants and mutations can also cause a dropout. I suspect that they will only confirm a Positive for Omnicron with a full Genome sequence

So its a bit more complicated than "either positive Omicron cases or not"

If any of the above is incorrect - then maybe another poster who has more experience can confirm / clarify

The best information that all the governments / devolved administrations in the UK is that this variant is much more infectious and will shortly become dominant , with the potential for large numbers of Hospitalisations

Do you believe that all the administrations are 'scaremongering' ( or just the Scottish one )

I'm not a conspiracy theorist and given the fact I have spent my whole life in public service I always presume that governments are trying to do right by the population. Whilst I don't think they are looking to do any harm I certainly think that they have seized on the opportunity of Omicron to impose their will without having to legislate too much. Sadly I also think both the current Scottish and Westminster governments are rotten to the core and completely untrustworthy.

I'll admit I do not understand the science behind the testing situation but if they are only able to confirm 10% of the potential Omicron cases on a daily basis we either have a significant public health failing or as I sadly believe, they are deliberately overstating the problem to frighten the populace into compliance. PHE are claiming over 200000 cases with only 4000 confirmed.

If the testing is lagging so far behind are we soon to see the massive increase in cases they are predicting.

There simply is no need to genome sequence every expected Omnicron case - simple statistics will give you a perfectly reliable figure, so the full genome sequence is not required , so its not a case of public health failure.

Testing is not lagging behind - there is quite a bit of spare testing capacity , in fact there were less than 30K tests yesterday , compared with nearly 60K on the 10th of December

[Blackmac]

I'm no medical expert , but my understanding is this - The S gene drop out is a marker for the presence of the Omnicron variant , but not definite proof - The definite proof can only be confirmed by a genome scan

The S gene dropout test is a useful surrogate and a quick fix. Other variants and mutations can also cause a dropout. I suspect that they will only confirm a Positive for Omnicron with a full Genome sequence

So its a bit more complicated than "either positive Omicron cases or not"

If any of the above is incorrect - then maybe another poster who has more experience can confirm / clarify

The best information that all the governments / devolved administrations in the UK is that this variant is much more infectious and will shortly become dominant , with the potential for large numbers of Hospitalisations

Do you believe that all the administrations are 'scaremongering' ( or just the Scottish one )

I'm not a conspiracy theorist and given the fact I have spent my whole life in public service I always presume that governments are trying to do right by the population. Whilst I don't think they are looking to do any harm I certainly think that they have seized on the opportunity of Omicron to impose their will without having to legislate too much. Sadly I also think both the current Scottish and Westminster governments are rotten to the core and completely untrustworthy.

I'll admit I do not understand the science behind the testing situation but if they are only able to confirm 10% of the potential Omicron cases on a daily basis we either have a significant public health failing or as I sadly believe, they are deliberately overstating the problem to frighten the populace into compliance. PHE are claiming over 200000 cases with only 4000 confirmed.

If the testing is lagging so far behind are we soon to see the massive increase in cases they are predicting.

There simply is no need to genome sequence every expected Omnicron case - simple statistics will give you a perfectly reliable figure, so the full genome sequence is not required , so its not a case of public health failure.

Testing is not lagging behind - there is quite a bit of spare testing capacity , in fact there were less than 30K tests yesterday , compared with nearly 60K on the 10th of December

Sorry, didn't mean testing I was referring to the sequencing. From what I know positive cases are getting told if they have Omicron or not so that doesn't seem to marry up with your suggestion that there is no need to sequence every case.

I am maybe being a bit thick here but I also don't follow your claim that statistics will give a perfectly accurate Omicron rate. If they are going to do that should todays stated Omicron rate not have been 27.4% of 3117.

[Ymx]

https://ukhsa.blog.gov.uk/2021/12/08/in ... doing-now/

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) is an important component of our surveillance to identify cases of different variants, following a positive PCR test result. This process can take a few days, so we use a marker known as ‘S gene target failure’ to identify possible Omicron cases rapidly and inform public health action. The Omicron variant of the virus has a number of mutations which mean that the S gene does not show up in PCR results. This referred to as S gene dropout or S gene target failure and it can be used as marker for this variant pending the WGS results.

And some other Sciency stuff on S Gene Dropout being used
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... t-failure/
.

[Biffer]

No, I think they are deliberately misrepresenting the true scale of the Omicron issue in order to further their obvious aim of discouraging socialising during the festive season.

Also can you explain why only 110 of around 1000 have been confirmed. Surely they are either positive Omicron cases or not.

I'm no medical expert , but my understanding is this - The S gene drop out is a marker for the presence of the Omnicron variant , but not definite proof - The definite proof can only be confirmed by a genome scan

The S gene dropout test is a useful surrogate and a quick fix. Other variants and mutations can also cause a dropout. I suspect that they will only confirm a Positive for Omnicron with a full Genome sequence

So its a bit more complicated than "either positive Omicron cases or not"

If any of the above is incorrect - then maybe another poster who has more experience can confirm / clarify

The best information that all the governments / devolved administrations in the UK is that this variant is much more infectious and will shortly become dominant , with the potential for large numbers of Hospitalisations

Do you believe that all the administrations are 'scaremongering' ( or just the Scottish one )

I'm not a conspiracy theorist and given the fact I have spent my whole life in public service I always presume that governments are trying to do right by the population. Whilst I don't think they are looking to do any harm I certainly think that they have seized on the opportunity of Omicron to impose their will without having to legislate too much. Sadly I also think both the current Scottish and Westminster governments are rotten to the core and completely untrustworthy.

I'll admit I do not understand the science behind the testing situation but if they are only able to confirm 10% of the potential Omicron cases on a daily basis we either have a significant public health failing or as I sadly believe, they are deliberately overstating the problem to frighten the populace into compliance. PHE are claiming over 200000 cases with only 4000 confirmed.

If the testing is lagging so far behind are we soon to see the massive increase in cases they are predicting.

Can you explain why they want discourage socialising during the festive season?

[Blackmac]

I'm no medical expert , but my understanding is this - The S gene drop out is a marker for the presence of the Omnicron variant , but not definite proof - The definite proof can only be confirmed by a genome scan

The S gene dropout test is a useful surrogate and a quick fix. Other variants and mutations can also cause a dropout. I suspect that they will only confirm a Positive for Omnicron with a full Genome sequence

So its a bit more complicated than "either positive Omicron cases or not"

If any of the above is incorrect - then maybe another poster who has more experience can confirm / clarify

The best information that all the governments / devolved administrations in the UK is that this variant is much more infectious and will shortly become dominant , with the potential for large numbers of Hospitalisations

Do you believe that all the administrations are 'scaremongering' ( or just the Scottish one )

I'm not a conspiracy theorist and given the fact I have spent my whole life in public service I always presume that governments are trying to do right by the population. Whilst I don't think they are looking to do any harm I certainly think that they have seized on the opportunity of Omicron to impose their will without having to legislate too much. Sadly I also think both the current Scottish and Westminster governments are rotten to the core and completely untrustworthy.

I'll admit I do not understand the science behind the testing situation but if they are only able to confirm 10% of the potential Omicron cases on a daily basis we either have a significant public health failing or as I sadly believe, they are deliberately overstating the problem to frighten the populace into compliance. PHE are claiming over 200000 cases with only 4000 confirmed.

If the testing is lagging so far behind are we soon to see the massive increase in cases they are predicting.

Can you explain why they want discourage socialising during the festive season?

Obviously the increased level of socialising would likely lead to an increased level of transmission and infection, regardless of Omicron. I'm not against the suggestion that there should be some restraint, but the governments have pretty much lost the moral authority to try and convince the public of the dangers, and the public, at this stage are pretty much beyond listening or caring. I think Omicron, while concerning, has provided them with the ideal tool to use to hammer the position home. I think they are exaggerating the risk and some of the rhetoric they are using to make their point is verging on the irresponsible and they are creating unnecessary panic.

[Paddington Bear]

Did an annual Christmas pub crawl last night, albeit depleted from those who came back positive on LFTs. In at least three Central London pubs in the run up to Christmas we were the only customers, only one (a spoons) was anything like busy. We've locked down by stealth with no support for hospitality businesses. Heart goes out to them - would usually be standing room at the bar in most of them.

[Blackmac]

https://ukhsa.blog.gov.uk/2021/12/08/in ... doing-now/

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) is an important component of our surveillance to identify cases of different variants, following a positive PCR test result. This process can take a few days, so we use a marker known as ‘S gene target failure’ to identify possible Omicron cases rapidly and inform public health action. The Omicron variant of the virus has a number of mutations which mean that the S gene does not show up in PCR results. This referred to as S gene dropout or S gene target failure and it can be used as marker for this variant pending the WGS results.

And some other Sciency stuff on S Gene Dropout being used
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... t-failure/
.

Two people I know were informed they had the variant within 12 hours of PCR test. So are they using the S gene dropout indicator to inform individuals that they have the Omicron variant but not using it to make up the daily figures until they have further confirmation. Hence my question about the correct daily figure lagging behind by a few days as the current difference between the daily figures and the infection statistic (the 27.4%) are vast.

[Blackmac]

Did an annual Christmas pub crawl last night, albeit depleted from those who came back positive on LFTs. In at least three Central London pubs in the run up to Christmas we were the only customers, only one (a spoons) was anything like busy. We've locked down by stealth with no support for hospitality businesses. Heart goes out to them - would usually be standing room at the bar in most of them.

That is essentially my theory. If they had legislated to shut down hospitality they would have had to put a huge financial support structure in place. Panic the public into doing it for you and you are off the hook.

[Blackmac]

Yesterday Sturgeon said that Delta hospitalises 4% of cases. This morning she has just stated it hospitalises 2%. Good to have such a reliable source.

[JM2K6]

Yesterday Sturgeon said that Delta hospitalises 4% of cases. This morning she has just stated it hospitalises 2%. Good to have such a reliable source.

Do you have a link to her statement this morning?

[Blackmac]

Yesterday Sturgeon said that Delta hospitalises 4% of cases. This morning she has just stated it hospitalises 2%. Good to have such a reliable source.

Do you have a link to her statement this morning?

Just been on an interview with Lorraine Kelly.

[petej]

Yesterday Sturgeon said that Delta hospitalises 4% of cases. This morning she has just stated it hospitalises 2%. Good to have such a reliable source.

Do you have a link to her statement this morning?

Yesterday Sturgeon said that Delta hospitalises 4% of cases. This morning she has just stated it hospitalises 2%. Good to have such a reliable source.

Delta 4% and omicron 2%?

[Blackmac]

Yesterday Sturgeon said that Delta hospitalises 4% of cases. This morning she has just stated it hospitalises 2%. Good to have such a reliable source.

Do you have a link to her statement this morning?

Yesterday Sturgeon said that Delta hospitalises 4% of cases. This morning she has just stated it hospitalises 2%. Good to have such a reliable source.

Delta 4% and omicron 2%?

Nope, thats what she said yesterday. This morning it became 2% and 1%.

[I like neeps]

Did an annual Christmas pub crawl last night, albeit depleted from those who came back positive on LFTs. In at least three Central London pubs in the run up to Christmas we were the only customers, only one (a spoons) was anything like busy. We've locked down by stealth with no support for hospitality businesses. Heart goes out to them - would usually be standing room at the bar in most of them.

That is essentially my theory. If they had legislated to shut down hospitality they would have had to put a huge financial support structure in place. Panic the public into doing it for you and you are off the hook.

And conveniently have the party who should be the party of workers agree to it without any financial support. Well done messrs Johnson and Starmer.

[Blackmac]

I see Javid's claim of 200000 cases on Monday is being ridiculed. Likely to be more like 40000.
As I've said I understand the need for caution but object to the complete bullshit and dishonesty.

[petej]

I see Javid's claim of 200000 cases on Monday is being ridiculed. Likely to be more like 40000.
As I've said I understand the need for caution but object to the complete bullshit and dishonesty.

It might be in total though the tested positive is likely to be near 40,000. The fear being propagated now is disproportionate to the risk. This dishonesty is unfair on the population who by and large have been sensible despite sensationalist reporting and silly politicians and not really needed the threats as much as it has been used.

[Tichtheid]

Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh on 14 December 2021.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coron ... mber-2021/

it contains the following;

In recent months, the proportion of Delta cases needing hospital care has been around 2%.

[Blackmac]

Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh on 14 December 2021.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coron ... mber-2021/

it contains the following;

In recent months, the proportion of Delta cases needing hospital care has been around 2%.

Yeah, apologies my mistake.

[Tichtheid]

Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh on 14 December 2021.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coron ... mber-2021/

it contains the following;

In recent months, the proportion of Delta cases needing hospital care has been around 2%.

Yeah, apologies my mistake.

There is a 4% figure, but it's in relation to testing

For about 95% of all cases in Scotland, tests are currently processed in a way that allows us to know if the S gene is present or not.

This shows that Omicron cases are increasing exponentially - faster than any variant that has gone before.

When I made a statement to Parliament last week, around 4% of cases showed the S Gene drop out. By Wednesday it was 7%, on Friday it was above 15%.

Today, it is 27.5%

We estimate that the doubling time is two to three days - more rapid than anything experienced in the pandemic so far.

There are so many figures to keep up with in this.

[Blackmac]

Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh on 14 December 2021.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coron ... mber-2021/

it contains the following;

Yeah, apologies my mistake.

There is a 4% figure, but it's in relation to testing

For about 95% of all cases in Scotland, tests are currently processed in a way that allows us to know if the S gene is present or not.

This shows that Omicron cases are increasing exponentially - faster than any variant that has gone before.

When I made a statement to Parliament last week, around 4% of cases showed the S Gene drop out. By Wednesday it was 7%, on Friday it was above 15%.

Today, it is 27.5%

We estimate that the doubling time is two to three days - more rapid than anything experienced in the pandemic so far.

There are so many figures to keep up with in this.

I think that is the problem. I'm no scientist but also not exactly stupid and despite some best efforts on here I struggle to understand the difference in S gene dropout detection and the daily positive cases. If it takes say a couple of days to carry out the full sequencing examination, yesterdays figures were potentially 27.4% of 3117 then surely in a couple of days, on completion of full sequencing of todays tests we will see a jump to around 850ish??

That's why I asked are the full positive results lagging a day or two behind,

[Uncle fester]

I'm no medical expert , but my understanding is this - The S gene drop out is a marker for the presence of the Omnicron variant , but not definite proof - The definite proof can only be confirmed by a genome scan

The S gene dropout test is a useful surrogate and a quick fix. Other variants and mutations can also cause a dropout. I suspect that they will only confirm a Positive for Omnicron with a full Genome sequence

So its a bit more complicated than "either positive Omicron cases or not"

If any of the above is incorrect - then maybe another poster who has more experience can confirm / clarify

The best information that all the governments / devolved administrations in the UK is that this variant is much more infectious and will shortly become dominant , with the potential for large numbers of Hospitalisations

Do you believe that all the administrations are 'scaremongering' ( or just the Scottish one )

I'm not a conspiracy theorist and given the fact I have spent my whole life in public service I always presume that governments are trying to do right by the population. Whilst I don't think they are looking to do any harm I certainly think that they have seized on the opportunity of Omicron to impose their will without having to legislate too much. Sadly I also think both the current Scottish and Westminster governments are rotten to the core and completely untrustworthy.

I'll admit I do not understand the science behind the testing situation but if they are only able to confirm 10% of the potential Omicron cases on a daily basis we either have a significant public health failing or as I sadly believe, they are deliberately overstating the problem to frighten the populace into compliance. PHE are claiming over 200000 cases with only 4000 confirmed.

If the testing is lagging so far behind are we soon to see the massive increase in cases they are predicting.

Can you explain why they want discourage socialising during the festive season?

Mike Ryan from WHO has said we won't beat Covid with lockdown or vaccination alone. It needs to be a range of measures to slow it down and social distancing has to be one of those.

[petej]

Blackmac,

You aren't going to sequence the lot. You will randomly sample a smaller but statistically significant number of them.

You can can also infer a growth rate for omicron and extrapolate it but probably only for few days or week before it becomes too uncertain.

[Calculon]

There's also a case, not for fearmongering, but emphasising worst cases that is scientific. Using the precautionary principle is important when you've only got one of something, like a global environment or a global population. If we'd applied it more in earlier waves in the UK, there might not be as many dead.

I don't really understand this term "precautionary principle". What exactly does it mean, just a fancy way of saying "better safe than sorry"? It seems a phrase that can be used to justify whatever precautions (restrictions) are deemed necessary, whatever the actual nature of the resistrictions, and without then having to lay out a clear cost/ bennefit rationale of said restrictions. Which admittedly can be very hard to do consideing the somewhat unpredictable nature of this pandemic.

The UK along with most countries made loads of mistakes in the beginning. Most people , including myself, completely underestimated the impact the virus would have. So I can't be too critical of decisions taken in the first few months. Even those taken by shitty politicians.

I don't understand that final paragraph. Are you holding governments to the same standard as a layman with no specialist knowledge or access to scientific data?

Yeah, I should not have said most people. My point was it was a pretty unprecedented situation, there were conflicting scientific advice, I mean the UK's chief medical officer who is an epidemiologist told the public in March 2020 not to wear masks and not to change their daily routine. While the political decisions had to be informed by the science, other factors also had to be considered, so I cut the politicians some slack in those first few months .

I'm not quite a layperson in epidemiology or virology, most scientific data is published, and my predictions were wrong.

[Biffer]

I'm not a conspiracy theorist and given the fact I have spent my whole life in public service I always presume that governments are trying to do right by the population. Whilst I don't think they are looking to do any harm I certainly think that they have seized on the opportunity of Omicron to impose their will without having to legislate too much. Sadly I also think both the current Scottish and Westminster governments are rotten to the core and completely untrustworthy.

I'll admit I do not understand the science behind the testing situation but if they are only able to confirm 10% of the potential Omicron cases on a daily basis we either have a significant public health failing or as I sadly believe, they are deliberately overstating the problem to frighten the populace into compliance. PHE are claiming over 200000 cases with only 4000 confirmed.

If the testing is lagging so far behind are we soon to see the massive increase in cases they are predicting.

Can you explain why they want discourage socialising during the festive season?

Mike Ryan from WHO has said we won't beat Covid with lockdown or vaccination alone. It needs to be a range of measures to slow it down and social distancing has to be one of those.

I know. What I'm trying to understand from Blackmac is what he's on about. He acknowledges that we should decrease our socialising in order to prevent the virus spreading but goes off on a rant when the SNP try to get people to do it. It's not clear where the line is for him other than if the SNP are saying it it has to be shouted down.

[Happyhooker]

Did an annual Christmas pub crawl last night, albeit depleted from those who came back positive on LFTs. In at least three Central London pubs in the run up to Christmas we were the only customers, only one (a spoons) was anything like busy. We've locked down by stealth with no support for hospitality businesses. Heart goes out to them - would usually be standing room at the bar in most of them.

That is essentially my theory. If they had legislated to shut down hospitality they would have had to put a huge financial support structure in place. Panic the public into doing it for you and you are off the hook.

They tried to get away with this in march 2020. Around the 7th march boris gave a speech effectively saying "we're not shutting pubs, but don't go to pubs" the week running up to the 19th they were eerily quiet and it was only when the numbers went through the roof that they felt they had to order them shut

[Blackmac]

Can you explain why they want discourage socialising during the festive season?

Mike Ryan from WHO has said we won't beat Covid with lockdown or vaccination alone. It needs to be a range of measures to slow it down and social distancing has to be one of those.

I know. What I'm trying to understand from Blackmac is what he's on about. He acknowledges that we should decrease our socialising in order to prevent the virus spreading but goes off on a rant when the SNP try to get people to do it. It's not clear where the line is for him other than if the SNP are saying it it has to be shouted down.

No, nothing to do with the SNP specifically. It's the way all the governments are going about it. The rhetoric they are using, tsunamis etc and the blatant exaggeration of the current situation is clearly designed to create a greater impression of the risk than they currently understand. As others have said, it is lockdown by the back door without the governments having to wear the financial consequences.

[tc27]

Well..lets hope Omicron is mild in most people because in cases numbers looks like we are going to set some new records:

[petej]

Mike Ryan from WHO has said we won't beat Covid with lockdown or vaccination alone. It needs to be a range of measures to slow it down and social distancing has to be one of those.

I know. What I'm trying to understand from Blackmac is what he's on about. He acknowledges that we should decrease our socialising in order to prevent the virus spreading but goes off on a rant when the SNP try to get people to do it. It's not clear where the line is for him other than if the SNP are saying it it has to be shouted down.

No, nothing to do with the SNP specifically. It's the way all the governments are going about it. The rhetoric they are using, tsunamis etc and the blatant exaggeration of the current situation is clearly designed to create a greater impression of the risk than they currently understand. As others have said, it is lockdown by the back door without the governments having to wear the financial consequences.

I know what you mean with the overstating of risk. The uncertainty overall is far lower than it was in March 2020 and the risk is lower as well. People need to accept they are going to get this multiple times in their life.

A bit of research today showed that omicron is 70x better at replicating in nose and throat cells than delta but 10x worse at replicating in lung cells.

[Calculon]

Please send the link!

[petej]

Please send the link!

https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20 ... ss_release

[Calculon]

Please send the link!

https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20 ... ss_release

Thanks, that would support the difference in symptoms we are seeing between the two strains.

[Slick]

My wife’s place has had every single booking for tonight and tomorrow night cancel

In other news, feel totally shite after the booster yesterday

[petej]

My wife’s place has had every single booking for tonight and tomorrow night cancel

In other news, feel totally shite after the booster yesterday

Moderna?

Please send the link!

https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20 ... ss_release

Thanks, that would support the difference in symptoms we are seeing between the two strains.

And the speed of spread.