So, coronavirus...

[Rhubarb & Custard]

I then further pointed out that because Covid is now endemic to human populations everywhere that vaccines were going to be of limited use

Saying it's endemic to humans isn't the same as say the WHO noting it's gone from a pandemic to being endemic. I suspect absent of it simply being gone everyone would like for it to be endemic, but for that to happen you need contagion rates to fall dramatically, so infections don't spike and health systems get overloaded. If it becomes noted as endemic then some of what you seem to be hoping for will follow, but for now it's still a pandemic and so much of what you're pointing out is questionable as things stand, more a wish list to Santa than a critique of where we are.

[petej]

Bored of this hysteria. SA reporting Omicron admissions to hospital are 91% lower than previous variants. Some twonk on the beeb whining "but, but.... we have an older population in the UK". Yes, you w*nker. But SA has a much, much lower vaccination rate.

Just been told by a friend working in MK Hospital that there are currently TWELVE Corona cases in the entire hospital out of 1200 patients. He wasn't able to determine how many obesity bed blockers there were.

I do wonder if it displaced delta if UK hospital admissions could actually drop.

[dpedin]

I then further pointed out that because Covid is now endemic to human populations everywhere that vaccines were going to be of limited use

Saying it's endemic to humans isn't the same as say the WHO noting it's gone from a pandemic to being endemic. I suspect absent of it simply being gone everyone would like for it to be endemic, but for that to happen you need contagion rates to fall dramatically, so infections don't spike and health systems get overloaded. If it becomes noted as endemic then some of what you seem to be hoping for will follow, but for now it's still a pandemic and so much of what you're pointing out is questionable as things stand, more a wish list to Santa than a critique of where we are.

To repeat covid becoming endemic does not mean it becomes any less lethal it just means it is widespread across the population and therefore likely to kill more people. If we are really, really lucky omicron might be less harmful but we don't know for sure yet, I hope so! However lots of diseases are endemic without becoming 'less deadly' but what we have done is found ways to control them and reduce community spread more effectively ie vaccines and reduce illness and death as a result. We are pretty good at controlling diseases and reducing their harm ie measles, mumps, rubella, polio, rabies, etc but we are dealing with a new virus and it will take time to put everything in place globally. I would say we have done pretty well in 12 months to have developed and rolled out a pretty effective vaccine, another 12 months and we will have even better vaccines in place that will control the virus and transmission. In the interim we just need to do whatever we can to reduce illness and deaths ie wear a mask, distance, get jabbed, etc. It aint difficult but it needs strong leadership and good government and unfortunately in UK we have neither.

[_Os_]

I then further pointed out that because Covid is now endemic to human populations everywhere that vaccines were going to be of limited use

Saying it's endemic to humans isn't the same as say the WHO noting it's gone from a pandemic to being endemic. I suspect absent of it simply being gone everyone would like for it to be endemic, but for that to happen you need contagion rates to fall dramatically, so infections don't spike and health systems get overloaded. If it becomes noted as endemic then some of what you seem to be hoping for will follow, but for now it's still a pandemic and so much of what you're pointing out is questionable as things stand, more a wish list to Santa than a critique of where we are.

I've been saying this since near the start. The direction of travel is towards what I'm saying, so the wish list to Santa is happening. From memory I posted on it early in 2020 supported lockdowns and the rest, that lasted a week or so before it seemed obvious to me that mitigation would fail, then posted that a lot of this didn't make much sense (thinking about it when I got dog piled may have been then, 2020 and 2021 blend into one year).

And here we are. It's endemic, zero Covid is a failure. It will spike periodically, same as the flu does.

The Medical Advisory Committee to the SA government has just recommended ending all isolation based measures and all contact tracing, it's endemic now, so it's pointless.

Any strategy involves working backwards from a realistic end goal you desire. Zero Covid was never on the table, short of the virus just disappearing naturally (which could happen, but nothing can be done to bring that about, sometimes viruses do mysteriously disappear). So what is your desired end goal? Because if you support controls (of something that was only controllable at the very start, but China lied and kept everything secret early on in 2019 so that chance wasn't available) then you'll be supporting those controls forever.

I'm guessing that you like many people, wouldn't be okay with it if it were as deadly as flu (ie thousands dying a year)? So arbitrary pointless controls forever it is then, then complain when our rulers break those rules whilst demanding the same shameless untrustworthy leaders implement more rules? Seems stupid to me, but as I said, I shall check back in on the progress of the concentration camps etc next year.

[dpedin]

I then further pointed out that because Covid is now endemic to human populations everywhere that vaccines were going to be of limited use

Saying it's endemic to humans isn't the same as say the WHO noting it's gone from a pandemic to being endemic. I suspect absent of it simply being gone everyone would like for it to be endemic, but for that to happen you need contagion rates to fall dramatically, so infections don't spike and health systems get overloaded. If it becomes noted as endemic then some of what you seem to be hoping for will follow, but for now it's still a pandemic and so much of what you're pointing out is questionable as things stand, more a wish list to Santa than a critique of where we are.

I've been saying this since near the start. The direction of travel is towards what I'm saying, so the wish list to Santa is happening. From memory I posted on it early in 2020 supported lockdowns and the rest, that lasted a week or so before it seemed obvious to me that mitigation would fail, then posted that a lot of this didn't make much sense (thinking about it when I got dog piled may have been then, 2020 and 2021 blend into one year).

And here we are. It's endemic, zero Covid is a failure. It will spike periodically, same as the flu does.

The Medical Advisory Committee to the SA government has just recommended ending all isolation based measures and all contact tracing, it's endemic now, so it's pointless.

Any strategy involves working backwards from a realistic end goal you desire. Zero Covid was never on the table, short of the virus just disappearing naturally (which could happen, but nothing can be done to bring that about, sometimes viruses do mysteriously disappear). So what is your desired end goal? Because if you support controls (of something that was only controllable at the very start, but China lied and kept everything secret early on in 2019 so that chance wasn't available) then you'll be supporting those controls forever.

I'm guessing that you like many people, wouldn't be okay with it if it were as deadly as flu (ie thousands dying a year)? So arbitrary pointless controls forever it is then, then complain when our rulers break those rules whilst demanding the same shameless untrustworthy leaders implement more rules? Seems stupid to me, but as I said, I shall check back in on the progress of the concentration camps etc next year.

Which viruses that have been endemic have magically disappeared without any sensible PH appoach? Covid is not endemic in many countries around the world.

Please don't use the term 'concentration camps' in the context of covid - it is not appropriate and does a huge disservice to those who actually suffered locked up and dying in them!

[Torquemada 1420]

Bored of this hysteria. SA reporting Omicron admissions to hospital are 91% lower than previous variants. Some twonk on the beeb whining "but, but.... we have an older population in the UK". Yes, you w*nker. But SA has a much, much lower vaccination rate.

Just been told by a friend working in MK Hospital that there are currently TWELVE Corona cases in the entire hospital out of 1200 patients. He wasn't able to determine how many obesity bed blockers there were.

I do wonder if it displaced delta if UK hospital admissions could actually drop.

The SA data implies exactly that.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

I then further pointed out that because Covid is now endemic to human populations everywhere that vaccines were going to be of limited use

Saying it's endemic to humans isn't the same as say the WHO noting it's gone from a pandemic to being endemic. I suspect absent of it simply being gone everyone would like for it to be endemic, but for that to happen you need contagion rates to fall dramatically, so infections don't spike and health systems get overloaded. If it becomes noted as endemic then some of what you seem to be hoping for will follow, but for now it's still a pandemic and so much of what you're pointing out is questionable as things stand, more a wish list to Santa than a critique of where we are.

To repeat covid becoming endemic does not mean it becomes any less lethal it just means it is widespread across the population and therefore likely to kill more people. If we are really, really lucky omicron might be less harmful but we don't know for sure yet, I hope so! However lots of diseases are endemic without becoming 'less deadly' but what we have done is found ways to control them and reduce community spread more effectively ie vaccines and reduce illness and death as a result. We are pretty good at controlling diseases and reducing their harm ie measles, mumps, rubella, polio, rabies, etc but we are dealing with a new virus and it will take time to put everything in place globally. I would say we have done pretty well in 12 months to have developed and rolled out a pretty effective vaccine, another 12 months and we will have even better vaccines in place that will control the virus and transmission. In the interim we just need to do whatever we can to reduce illness and deaths ie wear a mask, distance, get jabbed, etc. It aint difficult but it needs strong leadership and good government and unfortunately in UK we have neither.

I was assuming in that comment if it's endemic we've found some manner of dealing with the ongoing reality of Covid19, similar perhaps to flu. And its prevalence was more at some manageable and sustained (if also somewhat seasonal) level, as opposed to the pandemic which sees uncontrollable spikes given normal social activity. It could in fairness be sustained, widespread and lethal, that's a fair point

[Torquemada 1420]

Which viruses that have been endemic have magically disappeared without any sensible PH appoach?

Are you suggesting this approach has been sensible? From where I'm sitting, it's looked more like headless chicken stuff.

[petej]

Dpedin, I think one of the most interesting articles I read over the summer from cell was discussing why there was only 4 endemic human coronaviruses when there are loads of coronaviruses. One of the reasons they thought there was is because there is a limited number of ways in which things can escape immunity or drift so there is only space or enough niche's for a limited number of endemic coronaviruses. We've seen convergent evolution of COVID-19 already. COVID could displace one of them

Something slightly different but also interesting has been found in bacteria with antibiotics where as it adapts to become resistant to one antibiotic it becomes vulnerable to something it was previously resistant to. Link below to a really interesting podcast episode that discusses this.


https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/ra ... -and-gamma

Two stories of surprisingly simple scientific discoveries one that seems straight out of sci-fi, and the other, directly from the past.

First, we head to the lab of neuroscientist Li-Huei Tsai to discover the power of flashing lights on an Alzheimer’s-addled (mouse) brain. In this segment, Li-Huei tells us about her team’s latest research, which also includes flashing sound, and ways in which light and sound together might retrieve lost memories. This new science is not a cure, and is far from a treatment, but it’s a finding so … simple, you won’t be able to shake it. Come join us for a lab visit, where we’ll meet some mice, stare at some light, and come face-to-face with the mystery of memory. We can promise you: by the end, you’ll never think the same way about Christmas lights again. Or jingle bells.

Then, what happens when you combine an axe-wielding microbiologist and a disease-obsessed historian? A strange brew that's hard to resist, even for a modern day microbe. In the war on devilish microbes, our weapons are starting to fail us. The antibiotics we once wielded like miraculous flaming swords seem more like lukewarm butter knives. But today we follow an odd couple to a storied land of elves and dragons. There, they uncover a 1000-year-old secret that makes us reconsider our most basic assumptions about human progress and wonder: What if the only way forward is backward?

[Biffer]

Bored of this hysteria. SA reporting Omicron admissions to hospital are 91% lower than previous variants. Some twonk on the beeb whining "but, but.... we have an older population in the UK". Yes, you w*nker. But SA has a much, much lower vaccination rate.

Just been told by a friend working in MK Hospital that there are currently TWELVE Corona cases in the entire hospital out of 1200 patients. He wasn't able to determine how many obesity bed blockers there were.

I do wonder if it displaced delta if UK hospital admissions could actually drop.

The SA data implies exactly that.

That can't be clearly stated yet. SA looks like it's had a disconnection between rates of case, hospitalisations and deaths, which is great. But we've already had that in the UK due to vaccination. What's not clear is if SA is seeing that effect (but coming substantially from prior infection) or if its an additional effect.

[Torquemada 1420]

I do wonder if it displaced delta if UK hospital admissions could actually drop.

The SA data implies exactly that.

That can't be clearly stated yet. SA looks like it's had a disconnection between rates of case, hospitalisations and deaths, which is great. But we've already had that in the UK due to vaccination. What's not clear is if SA is seeing that effect (but coming substantially from prior infection) or if its an additional effect.

Yes. I agree. Which is why I used the word "implies"!

[_Os_]

Which viruses that have been endemic have magically disappeared without any sensible PH appoach? Covid is not endemic in many countries around the world.

Please don't use the term 'concentration camps' in the context of covid - it is not appropriate and does a huge disservice to those who actually suffered locked up and dying in them!

The Asian flu virus appeared in the late 1950s did its thing, disappeared, then came back (antigenic shift) as the Hong Kong flu virus in the late 1960s. Then became a strain of seasonal flu. That's two pandemics both of which killed millions, and the exact process of each is in many ways mysterious (we know how it came back, but why did it come back, and why with such a big gap in time?). There's much about virus life cycles that's not understood (well, if you think viruses are "alive" enough to have a life cycle), if you Google "virus" and "upper atmosphere", you'll find lots of returns from 2018 of research describing how viruses travel around in the upper atmosphere (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41396-017-0042-4), maybe that's part of the answer and maybe it's nothing.

Yes, it being endemic now means it's unlikely to just disappear, but I'm not convinced anyone fully knows what's going on here beyond the broad brushstrokes (I'm old enough to recall when much more limited mitigation than happened in the end was supposed to limit UK deaths to 25k-50k). It likely is endemic basically everywhere, SA announced Omicron before it even sequenced the gnome fully. As soon as SA announced Belgium, Israel, Hong Kong announced they had cases within hours (so you either believe they could detect cases immediately within hours, or they already knew they had cases but there's so many variants they didn't care until someone else announced). Botswana has said the first Botswana Omicron cases in early November were from diplomats some of which were from Europe. This thing is way beyond mitigation and control now.

Once something is endemic public health measures will do little. As I've posted before, SA has endemic TB, every South African on here has had the BCG at birth immediately, some would've had the BCG again when they were teenagers, and some also again when they were conscripted into the military. The BCG is one of the most effective vaccines there is. SA's BCG vaccination is basically involuntary and has 100% coverage and has been that way for two generations, there's still endemic TB because the damp living conditions of many people have not been improved. Covid thrives indoors among groups of people (and seems to have a seasonal component), in other words the conditions for Covid are normal life. So you're not going to eliminate Covid through public health measures, and zero Covid doesn't look likely.

The Aussies are constructing rows of huts in remote locations where people must report to or face severe penalties. There are cases of this crippling people's lives (job losses etc). That has a strong whiff of concentration camp to me. Presumably every Aussie will have to do a stretch in one of these locations at some point in their lives, seeing as we're all getting Covid at some point, because it's endemic. But that's their look out, seems like madness to me.

[Uncle fester]

Would you fúck off with this agenda-driven shit?
For people working in sectors that are directly impacted by the hospital numbers, this has been the most fúcking awful years of our lives and we will be the ones who have to clean up the mess left by twats pushing their own twisted brand of "science".

[_Os_]

Would you fúck off with this agenda-driven shit?
For people working in sectors that are directly impacted by the hospital numbers, this has been the most fúcking awful years of our lives and we will be the ones who have to clean up the mess left by twats pushing their own twisted brand of "science".

I'm fully vaccinated (well unless boosters are the measure, which I don't qualify for anyway).

It's all an agenda, I remember when the agenda was get vaccinated then back to normal, and the agenda before that which was have a lockdown then back to normal.

What is your desired end point? How do you propose to live with endemic Covid?

This is what the MAC in SA says, the experts which advise the government. These are their answers. I'll go with their "twisted brand of science" until someone comes up with something better:
https://www.news24.com/news24/southafri ... e-20211219

If you have no answers for me, then good luck with unreasonable people.

[Biffer]

Would you fúck off with this agenda-driven shit?
For people working in sectors that are directly impacted by the hospital numbers, this has been the most fúcking awful years of our lives and we will be the ones who have to clean up the mess left by twats pushing their own twisted brand of "science".

I'm fully vaccinated (well unless boosters are the measure, which I don't qualify for anyway).

It's all an agenda, I remember when the agenda was get vaccinated then back to normal, and the agenda before that which was have a lockdown then back to normal.

What is your desired end point? How do you propose to live with endemic Covid?

This is what the MAC in SA says, the experts which advise the government. These are their answers. I'll go with their "twisted brand of science" until someone comes up with something better:
https://www.news24.com/news24/southafri ... e-20211219

If you have no answers for me, then good luck with unreasonable people.

What do you think endemic actually means?

[Uncle fester]

Would you fúck off with this agenda-driven shit?
For people working in sectors that are directly impacted by the hospital numbers, this has been the most fúcking awful years of our lives and we will be the ones who have to clean up the mess left by twats pushing their own twisted brand of "science".

I'm fully vaccinated (well unless boosters are the measure, which I don't qualify for anyway).

It's all an agenda, I remember when the agenda was get vaccinated then back to normal, and the agenda before that which was have a lockdown then back to normal.

What is your desired end point? How do you propose to live with endemic Covid?

This is what the MAC in SA says, the experts which advise the government. These are their answers. I'll go with their "twisted brand of science" until someone comes up with something better:
https://www.news24.com/news24/southafri ... e-20211219

If you have no answers for me, then good luck with unreasonable people.

"Whiff of concentration camps"
Yeah, you're a reasonable sort alright.

[salanya]

Would you fúck off with this agenda-driven shit?
For people working in sectors that are directly impacted by the hospital numbers, this has been the most fúcking awful years of our lives and we will be the ones who have to clean up the mess left by twats pushing their own twisted brand of "science".

Hear hear.

Let's hope Omicron is milder than the previous variants. But you still want to prevent spreading it in case you make others ill, and it can still make people poorly, whether just for a day or several weeks.
Meaning having to isolate and being off work.
Bit of a pain when you stack shelves or work in IT, but with serious consequences for oncologists, obstetricians but also firemen etc.
That's the concern for the wider society, and why measures need considering.

This pandemic is really showing people's true colours, and a general lack of empathy (anti-vaxxers, politicians and/or those with their own specific agenda without considering others).

[_Os_]

What do you think endemic actually means?

So now we're going to discuss the dictionary, when we can all Google the meaning of words. Endemic is something that's always there.

One of the dumbest things about all this, is you can read everything from actual scientists (journal articles and full press releases, not articles in the media filtered through journalists) and just repeat what they say. And it makes no difference, you will be told you're a moron. If you advocate for maximum mitigation, which has failed, no one questions that.

This from the first page first paragraph of the MAC's assessment sent to the minister of health:
"quarantine is only likely to be effective and/or practical in certain circumstances, and is an extreme, though sometimes necessary control measure for a disease outbreak. It is one potential control measure among many options, including isolation, and widespread testing campaigns. It does not generally have a role for endemic diseases, where control is not possible".
Just this block of text has three references from different US institutions/journal articles.

The whole of page two then goes on to describe that there should be no quarantine or isolation because it's now pointless (guess why dictionary dude), concluding with: "We propose that quarantining be discontinued with immediate effect" and "we further propose that contact tracing be stopped", and "this applies equally to vaccinated and non-vaccinated contacts". Page three continues explaining those recommendations. Page four the references.

So I read the top scientists advising my government, then I'm wrong and you want me to read the dictionary to you? I don't know where to go with that.

[Lemoentjie]

I do hope all the fatties who ask for lockdowns etc are equally as determined to lose their excess weight that puts them at risk not only for Covid, but many other problems that block up hospital beds.

[salanya]

I do hope all the fatties who ask for lockdowns etc are equally as determined to lose their excess weight that puts them at risk not only for Covid, but many other problems that block up hospital beds.

You seem obsessed with overweight people. Why ignore smokers, alcoholics, drug users? Or the elderly, who all take up a lot of health services too.

None of these are easy to fix, so perhaps we'll concentrate on the issue of the global pandemic first?

[Biffer]

What do you think endemic actually means?

So now we're going to discuss the dictionary, when we can all Google the meaning of words. Endemic is something that's always there.

One of the dumbest things about all this, is you can read everything from actual scientists (journal articles and full press releases, not articles in the media filtered through journalists) and just repeat what they say. And it makes no difference, you will be told you're a moron. If you advocate for maximum mitigation, which has failed, no one questions that.

This from the first page first paragraph of the MAC's assessment sent to the minister of health:
"quarantine is only likely to be effective and/or practical in certain circumstances, and is an extreme, though sometimes necessary control measure for a disease outbreak. It is one potential control measure among many options, including isolation, and widespread testing campaigns. It does not generally have a role for endemic diseases, where control is not possible".
Just this block of text has three references from different US institutions/journal articles.

The whole of page two then goes on to describe that there should be no quarantine or isolation because it's now pointless (guess why dictionary dude), concluding with: "We propose that quarantining be discontinued with immediate effect" and "we further propose that contact tracing be stopped", and "this applies equally to vaccinated and non-vaccinated contacts". Page three continues explaining those recommendations. Page four the references.

So I read the top scientists advising my government, then I'm wrong and you want me to read the dictionary to you? I don't know where to go with that.

It’s just the way you’re using endemic seems to carry some implication of lower risk, that’s why I asked. If that’s unintentional fair enough, but if you want to maintain that you’re looking at this in a purely scientific way, you need to make sure you use language better.

And I get my info from very good sources - I work for a Uk government science lab, so we’ve been getting in house briefings from leading scientists and researchers all the way through the pandemic. Head of vaccination research for the MRC, that kind of thing. Twenty or thirty minutes at a time, straight from the horses mouth, unfiltered by media. It also means I have access to medical and science journal full texts, so you can be guaranteed I’m using that as well.

[Calculon]

The SA data implies exactly that.

That can't be clearly stated yet. SA looks like it's had a disconnection between rates of case, hospitalisations and deaths, which is great. But we've already had that in the UK due to vaccination. What's not clear is if SA is seeing that effect (but coming substantially from prior infection) or if its an additional effect.

Yes. I agree. Which is why I used the word "implies"!

After the first and second waves there were hopeful predictions that the third (Delta) would be less severe due to increased immunity. That didn't happen. Just after this third wave the Omicron wave happened, which has resulted in a fall in hospitalization by 91 percent, and the death rate of people in hospital by two-thirds. Even discounting the data that the Omicron variant is poorer at infecting lung tissue than Delta, such a large effect being solely due to additional immunity is pretty unlikely and does suggest lower intrinsic severity.

[tabascoboy]

The rumour mill on Twatter says Johnson Is considering going back to Step 2 restrictions from Dec 27 for a month.

Time to stock up heavily on cheese and wine and plan some "work meetings" for NYE then ( need to wear a suit too of course )

[Dogbert]

The rumour mill on Twatter says Johnson Is considering going back to Step 2 restrictions from Dec 27 for a month.

Time to stock up heavily on cheese and wine and plan some "work meetings" for NYE then ( need to wear a suit too of course )

Will a Birthday suit suffice ?

[Wrinkles]

That can't be clearly stated yet. SA looks like it's had a disconnection between rates of case, hospitalisations and deaths, which is great. But we've already had that in the UK due to vaccination. What's not clear is if SA is seeing that effect (but coming substantially from prior infection) or if its an additional effect.

Yes. I agree. Which is why I used the word "implies"!

After the first and second waves there were hopeful predictions that the third (Delta) would be less severe due to increased immunity. That didn't happen. Just after this third wave the Omicron wave happened, which has resulted in a fall in hospitalization by 91 percent, and the death rate of people in hospital by two-thirds. Even discounting the data that the Omicron variant is poorer at infecting lung tissue than Delta, such a large effect being solely due to additional immunity is pretty unlikely and does suggest lower intrinsic severity.

In the UK, that’s exactly what did happen. Far fewer deaths for Delta compared to the first two waves.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

[TheFrog]

I think this will be my last post on Coronavirus on any forum because I am getting tired of lay people (me included) arguing about a disease scientists haven't quite yet understood. From individuals to news media, governments to unions, everything is very short term, all is emotional and there is very little space for constructive, calm analysis. Latest example is Omicron, when scientists ask for a bit more time before jumping to conclusions but where hysteria is already running wild among all camps.

So, I think best I can so is shut up given I have no expertise to bring to the debate.

Only thing I'd say before turning the page of COVID debates, is that I take heart in the curve showing daily deaths worldwide as it shows that wave after the wave, the trend is downward even as the contamination curve seems to show a stable trend. See below, you need to scroll down to see the chart.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[dpedin]

Which viruses that have been endemic have magically disappeared without any sensible PH appoach? Covid is not endemic in many countries around the world.

Please don't use the term 'concentration camps' in the context of covid - it is not appropriate and does a huge disservice to those who actually suffered locked up and dying in them!

The Asian flu virus appeared in the late 1950s did its thing, disappeared, then came back (antigenic shift) as the Hong Kong flu virus in the late 1960s. Then became a strain of seasonal flu. That's two pandemics both of which killed millions, and the exact process of each is in many ways mysterious (we know how it came back, but why did it come back, and why with such a big gap in time?). There's much about virus life cycles that's not understood (well, if you think viruses are "alive" enough to have a life cycle), if you Google "virus" and "upper atmosphere", you'll find lots of returns from 2018 of research describing how viruses travel around in the upper atmosphere (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41396-017-0042-4), maybe that's part of the answer and maybe it's nothing.

Yes, it being endemic now means it's unlikely to just disappear, but I'm not convinced anyone fully knows what's going on here beyond the broad brushstrokes (I'm old enough to recall when much more limited mitigation than happened in the end was supposed to limit UK deaths to 25k-50k). It likely is endemic basically everywhere, SA announced Omicron before it even sequenced the gnome fully. As soon as SA announced Belgium, Israel, Hong Kong announced they had cases within hours (so you either believe they could detect cases immediately within hours, or they already knew they had cases but there's so many variants they didn't care until someone else announced). Botswana has said the first Botswana Omicron cases in early November were from diplomats some of which were from Europe. This thing is way beyond mitigation and control now.

Once something is endemic public health measures will do little. As I've posted before, SA has endemic TB, every South African on here has had the BCG at birth immediately, some would've had the BCG again when they were teenagers, and some also again when they were conscripted into the military. The BCG is one of the most effective vaccines there is. SA's BCG vaccination is basically involuntary and has 100% coverage and has been that way for two generations, there's still endemic TB because the damp living conditions of many people have not been improved. Covid thrives indoors among groups of people (and seems to have a seasonal component), in other words the conditions for Covid are normal life. So you're not going to eliminate Covid through public health measures, and zero Covid doesn't look likely.

The Aussies are constructing rows of huts in remote locations where people must report to or face severe penalties. There are cases of this crippling people's lives (job losses etc). That has a strong whiff of concentration camp to me. Presumably every Aussie will have to do a stretch in one of these locations at some point in their lives, seeing as we're all getting Covid at some point, because it's endemic. But that's their look out, seems like madness to me.

Asian flu in late 1950's declined following the deployment of a vaccine in 1958'ish onwards - you can check this by googling it. The same virologists developed the vaccine for the following Hong Kong flu in late 1960's - again you can google it. Neither of these viruses magically disappeared - science and PH got them under control but to be fair it did take a while for the vaccines to be developed and deployed, just as we are seeing now with covid.

PH mitigations help avoid disease becoming endemic and then killing people! When done properly it will save lives and hold back community transmission until effective vaccines, medications, etc are developed and can be deployed. The likes of NZ, Japan and other are doing this successfully - see their covid death rates per 100k of pop - whereas the UK response has been awful - see our death rates. The difference for this has been the different PH responses.

BCG is an effective vaccine for TB but its level of efficacy is unclear - some suggest that it is about 60-80% so even with mass vaccination and regular boosters there will still be cases of TB and this will certainly be the case in countries where there is still a level of TB infections circulating for a number of reasons. WHO is trying to develop more effective vaccines for TB. I thought TB was a bacteria that was spread from person to person so not sure that damp living conditions are a cause but clearly close living arrangements with infected people will increase person to person spread. Again the seasonal element will be because of increased personal contacts, poor ventilations, no mask wearing, etc.

Your comparison of concentration camps with whatever the Aussies are building is still highly offensive and I suggest that you stop trying to justify your use of the term. We all know what you meant the using the term and it is not acceptable, please desist.

[dpedin]

Yes. I agree. Which is why I used the word "implies"!

After the first and second waves there were hopeful predictions that the third (Delta) would be less severe due to increased immunity. That didn't happen. Just after this third wave the Omicron wave happened, which has resulted in a fall in hospitalization by 91 percent, and the death rate of people in hospital by two-thirds. Even discounting the data that the Omicron variant is poorer at infecting lung tissue than Delta, such a large effect being solely due to additional immunity is pretty unlikely and does suggest lower intrinsic severity.

In the UK, that’s exactly what did happen. Far fewer deaths for Delta compared to the first two waves.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The Scottish data is interesting and hopeful? Although cases are increasing fast the hospitalisation rates don't seem to be following, although we have to allow for the time lag between cases and hospitalisations, it does appear hopeful. New admissions don't seem to be increasing in same proportion as before. Also hearing from mates that average length of stays is down for covid patients is down which is reducing pressure on beds. Medics are working out how to treat covid and have a better set of medications to choose from. However the main problem is staff absences due to infection, isolation and caring responsibilities, are on dramatic increase and this means fewer staffed beds available. Staff continue to get pulled from other areas to cover covid beds or being called out to support booster vaccination programme. Ongoing problem continues to be unvaccinated patients being admitted and needing ICU.

Fingers crossed!!!

Travelling Tabby website is a useful info source - updated daily. Pulls together data from a variety of sources and sets it out nicely.

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotlan ... s-tracker/

[Biffer]

After the first and second waves there were hopeful predictions that the third (Delta) would be less severe due to increased immunity. That didn't happen. Just after this third wave the Omicron wave happened, which has resulted in a fall in hospitalization by 91 percent, and the death rate of people in hospital by two-thirds. Even discounting the data that the Omicron variant is poorer at infecting lung tissue than Delta, such a large effect being solely due to additional immunity is pretty unlikely and does suggest lower intrinsic severity.

In the UK, that’s exactly what did happen. Far fewer deaths for Delta compared to the first two waves.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The Scottish data is interesting and hopeful? Although cases are increasing fast the hospitalisation rates don't seem to be following, although we have to allow for the time lag between cases and hospitalisations, it does appear hopeful. New admissions don't seem to be increasing in same proportion as before. Also hearing from mates that average length of stays is down for covid patients is down which is reducing pressure on beds. Medics are working out how to treat covid and have a better set of medications to choose from. However the main problem is staff absences due to infection, isolation and caring responsibilities, are on dramatic increase and this means fewer staffed beds available. Staff continue to get pulled from other areas to cover covid beds or being called out to support booster vaccination programme. Ongoing problem continues to be unvaccinated patients being admitted and needing ICU.

Fingers crossed!!!

Travelling Tabby website is a useful info source - updated daily. Pulls together data from a variety of sources and sets it out nicely.

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotlan ... s-tracker/

Well find out over the next week. Numbers only started to really kick up seven days ago. That’ll pass through to hospitalisations in the next week or ten days, if the timescales are the same as previous waves.

[Calculon]

Yes. I agree. Which is why I used the word "implies"!

After the first and second waves there were hopeful predictions that the third (Delta) would be less severe due to increased immunity. That didn't happen. Just after this third wave the Omicron wave happened, which has resulted in a fall in hospitalization by 91 percent, and the death rate of people in hospital by two-thirds. Even discounting the data that the Omicron variant is poorer at infecting lung tissue than Delta, such a large effect being solely due to additional immunity is pretty unlikely and does suggest lower intrinsic severity.

In the UK, that’s exactly what did happen. Far fewer deaths for Delta compared to the first two waves.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

I know, the obvious difference is that the UK had a massive vaccination drive before their third (Delta) wave

[petej]

In the UK, that’s exactly what did happen. Far fewer deaths for Delta compared to the first two waves.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The Scottish data is interesting and hopeful? Although cases are increasing fast the hospitalisation rates don't seem to be following, although we have to allow for the time lag between cases and hospitalisations, it does appear hopeful. New admissions don't seem to be increasing in same proportion as before. Also hearing from mates that average length of stays is down for covid patients is down which is reducing pressure on beds. Medics are working out how to treat covid and have a better set of medications to choose from. However the main problem is staff absences due to infection, isolation and caring responsibilities, are on dramatic increase and this means fewer staffed beds available. Staff continue to get pulled from other areas to cover covid beds or being called out to support booster vaccination programme. Ongoing problem continues to be unvaccinated patients being admitted and needing ICU.

Fingers crossed!!!

Travelling Tabby website is a useful info source - updated daily. Pulls together data from a variety of sources and sets it out nicely.

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotlan ... s-tracker/

Well find out over the next week. Numbers only started to really kick up seven days ago. That’ll pass through to hospitalisations in the next week or ten days, if the timescales are the same as previous waves.

London seems to be near toping out in cases (assuming it is not a testing capacity issue or a people not testing issue).

[fishfoodie]

What is the blithering idiot giving this news conference for ?

He's taking a lot of words, to say exactly nothing, & give zero clarity

[Deveron Boy]

Absolute dickhead. No direction lots of blah

However very clear that his cheese and wine party was ‘work’

[fishfoodie]

Absolute dickhead. No direction lots of blah

However very clear that his cheese and wine party was ‘work’

The pig-eyed, sack of shit has obviously been told by the experts, that there needed to be more restrictions; but the Cabinet told him, the MPs wouldn't wear it; & more letters/emails would go into the 1922 Chair; so he said; "Fuck It !", & now, they'll wait till hospitals in London run out of capacity; before doing anything.

[Lemoentjie]

I do hope all the fatties who ask for lockdowns etc are equally as determined to lose their excess weight that puts them at risk not only for Covid, but many other problems that block up hospital beds.

You seem obsessed with overweight people. Why ignore smokers, alcoholics, drug users? Or the elderly, who all take up a lot of health services too.

None of these are easy to fix, so perhaps we'll concentrate on the issue of the global pandemic first?

'Obsessed'? What are you talking about?

Yes, I think the same should be for alcoholics and drug users.

[dpedin]

Absolute dickhead. No direction lots of blah

However very clear that his cheese and wine party was ‘work’

The pig-eyed, sack of shit has obviously been told by the experts, that there needed to be more restrictions; but the Cabinet told him, the MPs wouldn't wear it; & more letters/emails would go into the 1922 Chair; so he said; "Fuck It !", & now, they'll wait till hospitals in London run out of capacity; before doing anything.

Last thing the Blonde Bumblecunt wants is to have to recall Parliament to get restrictions passed and have another 100+ of his MPs voting against him and then relying on Labour and SNP votes to get it through the house. He is fecked, he is a dead man walking and it is a feckin disaster for the country. Without the new restrictions then there isn't any need for Treasury to compensate leisure and entertainment industries for losses they are incurring as people vote with their feet and 'exercise caution'. He is literally selling them down the river, happy to let 1,000's of businesses go bust in order to save his own political skin! He is a cnut!

[petej]

Would you fúck off with this agenda-driven shit?
For people working in sectors that are directly impacted by the hospital numbers, this has been the most fúcking awful years of our lives and we will be the ones who have to clean up the mess left by twats pushing their own twisted brand of "science".

Hear hear.

Let's hope Omicron is milder than the previous variants. But you still want to prevent spreading it in case you make others ill, and it can still make people poorly, whether just for a day or several weeks.
Meaning having to isolate and being off work.
Bit of a pain when you stack shelves or work in IT, but with serious consequences for oncologists, obstetricians but also firemen etc.
That's the concern for the wider society, and why measures need considering.

This pandemic is really showing people's true colours, and a general lack of empathy (anti-vaxxers, politicians and/or those with their own specific agenda without considering others).

There's a concern for wider society? There is a concern for the elderly and unvaxxed. I don't think there is any concern for the u30s and minor's. A minor after thought for the UK government and UK media.

[Insane_Homer]

[Jockaline]

Absolute dickhead. No direction lots of blah

However very clear that his cheese and wine party was ‘work’

The pig-eyed, sack of shit has obviously been told by the experts, that there needed to be more restrictions; but the Cabinet told him, the MPs wouldn't wear it; & more letters/emails would go into the 1922 Chair; so he said; "Fuck It !", & now, they'll wait till hospitals in London run out of capacity; before doing anything.

Last thing the Blonde Bumblecunt wants is to have to recall Parliament to get restrictions passed and have another 100+ of his MPs voting against him and then relying on Labour and SNP votes to get it through the house. He is fecked, he is a dead man walking and it is a feckin disaster for the country. Without the new restrictions then there isn't any need for Treasury to compensate leisure and entertainment industries for losses they are incurring as people vote with their feet and 'exercise caution'. He is literally selling them down the river, happy to let 1,000's of businesses go bust in order to save his own political skin! He is a cnut!

Sunak, the heir apparent, as responsible if not more so. Looking after his own political skin, as is Truss to a lesser extent. The conservative right, Brexit crowd are in charge, Boris still their is just to soak up the wrath before they pounce.

[Jockaline]

The pig-eyed, sack of shit has obviously been told by the experts, that there needed to be more restrictions; but the Cabinet told him, the MPs wouldn't wear it; & more letters/emails would go into the 1922 Chair; so he said; "Fuck It !", & now, they'll wait till hospitals in London run out of capacity; before doing anything.

Last thing the Blonde Bumblecunt wants is to have to recall Parliament to get restrictions passed and have another 100+ of his MPs voting against him and then relying on Labour and SNP votes to get it through the house. He is fecked, he is a dead man walking and it is a feckin disaster for the country. Without the new restrictions then there isn't any need for Treasury to compensate leisure and entertainment industries for losses they are incurring as people vote with their feet and 'exercise caution'. He is literally selling them down the river, happy to let 1,000's of businesses go bust in order to save his own political skin! He is a cnut!

Sunak, the heir apparent, as responsible if not more so. Looking after his own political skin, as is Truss to a lesser extent. The conservative right, Brexit crowd are in charge, Boris only purpose now is to soak up the wrath before they pounce.