So, coronavirus...

[Margin__Walker]

At all previous crossroads I've been fairly clear in my head that a lockdown was required before the Government caved to it. March 2020, Autumn 2020 and December 2020.

The picture is far less straight forward now though for me. Clearly hospitalisations will increase over the next few weeks, but the extent of that still seems to be in question. Essentially the game has changed with the increased level of immunity resulting from the vaccine that does seem to be very successful in guarding against the worst outcomes. I'm not saying that further restrictions may not be necessary, but it does seem that the impact of full lockdowns is reduced, where as the economic cost remains the same.

By many accounts ICU's are full of unvaccinated people (almost all through their choice). Whilst that won't always be the case, I'd be reticent to swallow another round of restrictions of the type we've seen in the past unless hospitals were being completely overwhelmed. And given the people I would mix with on a regular basis are non vulnerable and triple jabbed, I'd be inclined to ignore any restrictions on things like household mixing.

[Marylandolorian]

Ok guys I have some good news about a new vaccine and it’s true, not coming from twitter or facebk.
A lab near Washington DC has developed a vaccine that is effective against COVID-19 and all its variants, even Omicron, as well as previous SARS-origin viruses .Phase 1 had great result and is under review before starting Phase2
Sorry I can’t say more, but it should be a press release very soon.

[dpedin]

At all previous crossroads I've been fairly clear in my head that a lockdown was required before the Government caved to it. March 2020, Autumn 2020 and December 2020.

The picture is far less straight forward now though for me. Clearly hospitalisations will increase over the next few weeks, but the extent of that still seems to be in question. Essentially the game has changed with the increased level of immunity resulting from the vaccine that does seem to be very successful in guarding against the worst outcomes. I'm not saying that further restrictions may not be necessary, but it does seem that the impact of full lockdowns is reduced, where as the economic cost remains the same.

By many accounts ICU's are full of unvaccinated people (almost all through their choice). Whilst that won't always be the case, I'd be reticent to swallow another round of restrictions of the type we've seen in the past unless hospitals were being completely overwhelmed. And given the people I would mix with on a regular basis are non vulnerable and triple jabbed, I'd be inclined to ignore any restrictions on things like household mixing.

Hospitals are close to being overwhelmed in London and this will likely be the case across the country soon. Problem this time is that omicron is as we know very, very virulent and the NHS will like everywhere else see significant staff absences due to omicron infections, isolating or caring for kids/elderly relatives. Beds are not the issue - it is availability of staffed beds that is very problematic. If the NHS see's nursing staff absence of 10-20% on top of the existing 10% vacancies then the NHS will struggle to cope with additional volumes of patients. Example - An ICU bed requires a 1:1 qualified nurse to bed ratio 24/7 - add in additional qualified staff time to cover breaks plus doing additional tasks like rotating patients etc and then add in 20% on top to cover annual leave, training, etc it means you need about 6.5 to 7 qualified ICU nurses per bed. ICU ward of 10 beds requires 65 to 70 wte nurses which will mean about 80'ish nurses as many work part time. If you are down 8 because of vacancies already and then lose another 10 - 15 or more to absence then you can't staff 10 ICU beds safely with 60 ish staff. You either spread qualified staff more thinly or staff ICU beds with unqualified nurses - both very unsafe and contrary to guidance - or close 2 or 3 beds. This is the problem - these staff are knackered and at the end of their tether, they have been working flat out for best part of 2 years.

I was in hospital for an outpatient appt a few weeks ago. Because of infection control the clinic was running at 50% of patient numbers so they were running extra clinics. Nurse looking after me said she normally worked part time 2 days a week in run down to retirement but because of covid was now working 4 long days a week. She should have retired some months ago but agreed to stay on because of staff shortages and she didn't want to let her colleagues down. She is going in March and they can't recruit to her post. She was concerned but said she couldn't do it anymore. Individuals staff are overwhelmed!

[dpedin]

Ok guys I have some good news about a new vaccine and it’s true, not coming from twitter or facebk.
A lab near Washington DC has developed a vaccine that is effective against COVID-19 and all its variants, even Omicron, as well as previous SARS-origin viruses .Phase 1 had great result and is under review before starting Phase2
Sorry I can’t say more, but it should be a press release very soon.

Say something about this on Twatter - developed in a military lab or something - it looks very promising indeed.

[Sandstorm]

Ok guys I have some good news about a new vaccine and it’s true, not coming from twitter or facebk.
A lab near Washington DC has developed a vaccine that is effective against COVID-19 and all its variants, even Omicron, as well as previous SARS-origin viruses .Phase 1 had great result and is under review before starting Phase2
Sorry I can’t say more, but it should be a press release very soon.

Say something about this on Twatter - developed in a military lab or something - it looks very promising indeed.

DC you say? Is it Domestos based?

[JM2K6]

Ok guys I have some good news about a new vaccine and it’s true, not coming from twitter or facebk.
A lab near Washington DC has developed a vaccine that is effective against COVID-19 and all its variants, even Omicron, as well as previous SARS-origin viruses .Phase 1 had great result and is under review before starting Phase2
Sorry I can’t say more, but it should be a press release very soon.

Say something about this on Twatter - developed in a military lab or something - it looks very promising indeed.

It's a phase 1 trial and the findings haven't been checked yet. It's pretty irresponsible of them to wank on about it already, but hey, US military...

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2 ... ts/360089/


All that being said, I hope they're absolutely right.

[Biffer]

Ok guys I have some good news about a new vaccine and it’s true, not coming from twitter or facebk.
A lab near Washington DC has developed a vaccine that is effective against COVID-19 and all its variants, even Omicron, as well as previous SARS-origin viruses .Phase 1 had great result and is under review before starting Phase2
Sorry I can’t say more, but it should be a press release very soon.

Not really news to anyone who keeps up with the science - a universal coronavirus vaccine has been in the news multiple times in the last 18 months.

[Ymx]

Is that the one which is also needleless? Yeah I read about that.

https://www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/ ... a-9231251/

[Ymx]

Oh, a US version.

[Wrinkles]

At all previous crossroads I've been fairly clear in my head that a lockdown was required before the Government caved to it. March 2020, Autumn 2020 and December 2020.

The picture is far less straight forward now though for me. Clearly hospitalisations will increase over the next few weeks, but the extent of that still seems to be in question. Essentially the game has changed with the increased level of immunity resulting from the vaccine that does seem to be very successful in guarding against the worst outcomes. I'm not saying that further restrictions may not be necessary, but it does seem that the impact of full lockdowns is reduced, where as the economic cost remains the same.

By many accounts ICU's are full of unvaccinated people (almost all through their choice). Whilst that won't always be the case, I'd be reticent to swallow another round of restrictions of the type we've seen in the past unless hospitals were being completely overwhelmed. And given the people I would mix with on a regular basis are non vulnerable and triple jabbed, I'd be inclined to ignore any restrictions on things like household mixing.

Hospitals are close to being overwhelmed in London and this will likely be the case across the country soon. Problem this time is that omicron is as we know very, very virulent and the NHS will like everywhere else see significant staff absences due to omicron infections, isolating or caring for kids/elderly relatives. Beds are not the issue - it is availability of staffed beds that is very problematic. If the NHS see's nursing staff absence of 10-20% on top of the existing 10% vacancies then the NHS will struggle to cope with additional volumes of patients. Example - An ICU bed requires a 1:1 qualified nurse to bed ratio 24/7 - add in additional qualified staff time to cover breaks plus doing additional tasks like rotating patients etc and then add in 20% on top to cover annual leave, training, etc it means you need about 6.5 to 7 qualified ICU nurses per bed. ICU ward of 10 beds requires 65 to 70 wte nurses which will mean about 80'ish nurses as many work part time. If you are down 8 because of vacancies already and then lose another 10 - 15 or more to absence then you can't staff 10 ICU beds safely with 60 ish staff. You either spread qualified staff more thinly or staff ICU beds with unqualified nurses - both very unsafe and contrary to guidance - or close 2 or 3 beds. This is the problem - these staff are knackered and at the end of their tether, they have been working flat out for best part of 2 years.

I was in hospital for an outpatient appt a few weeks ago. Because of infection control the clinic was running at 50% of patient numbers so they were running extra clinics. Nurse looking after me said she normally worked part time 2 days a week in run down to retirement but because of covid was now working 4 long days a week. She should have retired some months ago but agreed to stay on because of staff shortages and she didn't want to let her colleagues down. She is going in March and they can't recruit to her post. She was concerned but said she couldn't do it anymore. Individuals staff are overwhelmed!

I don’t doubt you but it’s strange they’re close to being overwhelmed with less than a quarter of the patients they had last year (1,900 v 8,000).

[petej]

They would be close to being overwhelmed regardless. To not be overwhelmed they need excess capacity. They have no excess capacity as any excess capacity would be engaged in tackling the massive waiting lists which had more than doubled in size even prior to the pandemic. The nhs has finite resources so more COVID cases means less people being treated for something else as resources/staff are shifted to treating COVID patients. Anti vaxxers are essentially denying someone else life changing/saving treatment.

[Sandstorm]

They would be close to being overwhelmed regardless. To not be overwhelmed they need excess capacity. They have no excess capacity as any excess capacity would be engaged in tackling the massive waiting lists which had more than doubled in size even prior to the pandemic. The nhs has finite resources so more COVID cases means less people being treated for something else as resources/staff are shifted to treating COVID patients. Anti vaxxers are essentially denying someone else life changing/saving treatment.

Don’t forget to add the number of NHS staff who are self-isolating at home.

[dpedin]

They would be close to being overwhelmed regardless. To not be overwhelmed they need excess capacity. They have no excess capacity as any excess capacity would be engaged in tackling the massive waiting lists which had more than doubled in size even prior to the pandemic. The nhs has finite resources so more COVID cases means less people being treated for something else as resources/staff are shifted to treating COVID patients. Anti vaxxers are essentially denying someone else life changing/saving treatment.

This plus there is a cumulative effect of having covid over the last 18-24 months. Big backlogs have developed but also many on these will have become more urgent due to having to wait longer during covid and can't be delayed any longer. Also covid patients have a longer length of stay than most other 'normal' patients. For example many will go into ICU following an operation but will only be in there for a day or two at most before going into a general surgical ward - say after cardiac operation. So you have short length of stays and quicker turnaround of beds - operations can be planned ahead knowing that an ICU bed will be available. However covid patients can stay in an ICU bed for weeks without anyone knowing if they will live or die and when they will get out of the ICU. And then of course you need to have separate ICU for covid and non covid patients which can be difficult and might mean use of recovery areas normally used for surgery in order to access gasses etc thus putting a theatre or two out of action. Then you need two separate teams of staff to cover the two different ICUs which is inherently more staff intensive. I know a small DGH not far away from me which only has 5 ICU beds - one covid patient means the whole ICU is not available for non covid patients due to the logistics and infection control issues. As a result all other planned operations need to be cancelled until covid patients is out of ICU.

Just looking at bed numbers or patient numbers is over simplistic and doesn't tell anything like the whole story!

[Ovals]

It’s a Tuesday. Tuesdays nearly always have the highest reported figure each week.

To put the number into context, reported deaths are up 0.9% week-on-week and the last time 172 deaths were actually registered in a single day was 1st November. No day in the last month has got above 150 and the average is currently 115. Hospitalisations are up 2.2% but it’s been reported the majority of patients in hospital in London with Omicron were admitted for other reasons, so it may be fair to assume the same elsewhere.

Too early to be sure, but it’s beginning to look like cases may have peaked last Wednesday (the numbers announced each day are reports, not the day tests were taken).

I think you might have been a bit too optimistic

Possibly, but 106,122 is the number reported today, not the number who tested positive today. 15th December is still the highest by sample date (103,281), followed by the 16th (96,254), then the 14th (94,963). Other days over 80,000 are the 29th December last year, plus 13th, 17th & 20th December this year. 20th December looks possible for a new record as reports tend to lag by a day or two. It’s currently showing 81,760, exactly the same as the previous Monday.

However, the number who tested positive on the 22nd will also increase significantly over the next few days as the data catches up. Best to just use the moving average which is stil trending upwards.

[dpedin]

I was playing golf with a Doc last week. For his specialty in Embra they currently only have access to only one theatre instead of the usual four. Covid plus staffing issues and winter pressures has meant the theatre/recovery space in a couple has been required plus theatre staff are scarce and currently redeployed into covid or other areas. They are only doing emergency or urgent surgery, the docs are fighting over access to the one theatre and are operating whenever they can night or day, weekends, etc. Huge backlogs and no end in sight I am afraid with omicron.

[Slick]

I see young people, 30-49 has now overtaken over 60’s in hospitals in Scotland due to vaccination levels in that group

[dpedin]

I see young people, 30-49 has now overtaken over 60’s in hospitals in Scotland due to vaccination levels in that group

Wow!

[petej]

They would be close to being overwhelmed regardless. To not be overwhelmed they need excess capacity. They have no excess capacity as any excess capacity would be engaged in tackling the massive waiting lists which had more than doubled in size even prior to the pandemic. The nhs has finite resources so more COVID cases means less people being treated for something else as resources/staff are shifted to treating COVID patients. Anti vaxxers are essentially denying someone else life changing/saving treatment.

This plus there is a cumulative effect of having covid over the last 18-24 months. Big backlogs have developed but also many on these will have become more urgent due to having to wait longer during covid and can't be delayed any longer. Also covid patients have a longer length of stay than most other 'normal' patients. For example many will go into ICU following an operation but will only be in there for a day or two at most before going into a general surgical ward - say after cardiac operation. So you have short length of stays and quicker turnaround of beds - operations can be planned ahead knowing that an ICU bed will be available. However covid patients can stay in an ICU bed for weeks without anyone knowing if they will live or die and when they will get out of the ICU. And then of course you need to have separate ICU for covid and non covid patients which can be difficult and might mean use of recovery areas normally used for surgery in order to access gasses etc thus putting a theatre or two out of action. Then you need two separate teams of staff to cover the two different ICUs which is inherently more staff intensive. I know a small DGH not far away from me which only has 5 ICU beds - one covid patient means the whole ICU is not available for non covid patients due to the logistics and infection control issues. As a result all other planned operations need to be cancelled until covid patients is out of ICU.

Just looking at bed numbers or patient numbers is over simplistic and doesn't tell anything like the whole story!

I just find the overwhelmed not overwhelmed back and forth a bit futile. Can the nhs treat more COVID patients? The answer is clearly yes as they did so last January but at a cost which is others not being treated. Even looking at patient numbers and bed numbers and understanding a basic model is better. BBC should put one together where you increase the number of covid patients and the number of patients (ratio of patients from shouldn't be 1:1) being treated for other conditions decreases and the nhs back log increases.

My tolerance for the stupidity and selfishness of anti-vaxxers is very low. How nhs staff don't want to smash their stupid heads repeatedly against a wall instead of treating them I don't know.
Edit: Johnson being forced to play theme hospital and other similar games like sim city would have been more useful than classics.

[Torquemada 1420]

Ok guys I have some good news about a new vaccine and it’s true, not coming from twitter or facebk.
A lab near Washington DC has developed a vaccine that is effective against COVID-19 and all its variants, even Omicron, as well as previous SARS-origin viruses .Phase 1 had great result and is under review before starting Phase2
Sorry I can’t say more, but it should be a press release very soon.

No worries. The UK Govt will cancel any orders anyway unless there are backhanders to members of the Tory party.

[Sandstorm]

My tolerance for the stupidity and selfishness of anti-vaxxers is very low. How nhs staff don't want to smash their stupid heads repeatedly against a wall instead of treating them I don't know.

Let’s treat unvaccinated Covid patients at home. A nurse will pop in once a day with some more O2 and another shot of dexi.

Then we can bring in all those jabbed patients who need cancer treatments and hip operations safely and make full use of ICUs.

[Torquemada 1420]

They would be close to being overwhelmed regardless. To not be overwhelmed they need excess capacity. They have no excess capacity as any excess capacity would be engaged in tackling the massive waiting lists which had more than doubled in size even prior to the pandemic. The nhs has finite resources so more COVID cases means less people being treated for something else as resources/staff are shifted to treating COVID patients. Anti vaxxers are essentially denying someone else life changing/saving treatment.

Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

[Torquemada 1420]

My tolerance for the stupidity and selfishness of anti-vaxxers is very low. How nhs staff don't want to smash their stupid heads repeatedly against a wall instead of treating them I don't know.

Presumably the same for fatties (of which NHS staff themselves have an embarrassingly significant proportion), smokers and the Fri/Sat night drunken morons who block A&Es up and down the country?

[Sandstorm]

They would be close to being overwhelmed regardless. To not be overwhelmed they need excess capacity. They have no excess capacity as any excess capacity would be engaged in tackling the massive waiting lists which had more than doubled in size even prior to the pandemic. The nhs has finite resources so more COVID cases means less people being treated for something else as resources/staff are shifted to treating COVID patients. Anti vaxxers are essentially denying someone else life changing/saving treatment.

Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

[Biffer]

At all previous crossroads I've been fairly clear in my head that a lockdown was required before the Government caved to it. March 2020, Autumn 2020 and December 2020.

The picture is far less straight forward now though for me. Clearly hospitalisations will increase over the next few weeks, but the extent of that still seems to be in question. Essentially the game has changed with the increased level of immunity resulting from the vaccine that does seem to be very successful in guarding against the worst outcomes. I'm not saying that further restrictions may not be necessary, but it does seem that the impact of full lockdowns is reduced, where as the economic cost remains the same.

By many accounts ICU's are full of unvaccinated people (almost all through their choice). Whilst that won't always be the case, I'd be reticent to swallow another round of restrictions of the type we've seen in the past unless hospitals were being completely overwhelmed. And given the people I would mix with on a regular basis are non vulnerable and triple jabbed, I'd be inclined to ignore any restrictions on things like household mixing.

Hospitals are close to being overwhelmed in London and this will likely be the case across the country soon. Problem this time is that omicron is as we know very, very virulent and the NHS will like everywhere else see significant staff absences due to omicron infections, isolating or caring for kids/elderly relatives. Beds are not the issue - it is availability of staffed beds that is very problematic. If the NHS see's nursing staff absence of 10-20% on top of the existing 10% vacancies then the NHS will struggle to cope with additional volumes of patients. Example - An ICU bed requires a 1:1 qualified nurse to bed ratio 24/7 - add in additional qualified staff time to cover breaks plus doing additional tasks like rotating patients etc and then add in 20% on top to cover annual leave, training, etc it means you need about 6.5 to 7 qualified ICU nurses per bed. ICU ward of 10 beds requires 65 to 70 wte nurses which will mean about 80'ish nurses as many work part time. If you are down 8 because of vacancies already and then lose another 10 - 15 or more to absence then you can't staff 10 ICU beds safely with 60 ish staff. You either spread qualified staff more thinly or staff ICU beds with unqualified nurses - both very unsafe and contrary to guidance - or close 2 or 3 beds. This is the problem - these staff are knackered and at the end of their tether, they have been working flat out for best part of 2 years.

I was in hospital for an outpatient appt a few weeks ago. Because of infection control the clinic was running at 50% of patient numbers so they were running extra clinics. Nurse looking after me said she normally worked part time 2 days a week in run down to retirement but because of covid was now working 4 long days a week. She should have retired some months ago but agreed to stay on because of staff shortages and she didn't want to let her colleagues down. She is going in March and they can't recruit to her post. She was concerned but said she couldn't do it anymore. Individuals staff are overwhelmed!

I don’t doubt you but it’s strange they’re close to being overwhelmed with less than a quarter of the patients they had last year (1,900 v 8,000).

That's because they emptied the hospitals of other work last winter. That created a massive backlog and the NHS is under pressure from this as well.

[petej]

They would be close to being overwhelmed regardless. To not be overwhelmed they need excess capacity. They have no excess capacity as any excess capacity would be engaged in tackling the massive waiting lists which had more than doubled in size even prior to the pandemic. The nhs has finite resources so more COVID cases means less people being treated for something else as resources/staff are shifted to treating COVID patients. Anti vaxxers are essentially denying someone else life changing/saving treatment.

Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

if only twat Hancock and bumblecunt had played theme hospital they would know that as well as having to build it you have to staff it as well.

[Biffer]

They would be close to being overwhelmed regardless. To not be overwhelmed they need excess capacity. They have no excess capacity as any excess capacity would be engaged in tackling the massive waiting lists which had more than doubled in size even prior to the pandemic. The nhs has finite resources so more COVID cases means less people being treated for something else as resources/staff are shifted to treating COVID patients. Anti vaxxers are essentially denying someone else life changing/saving treatment.

Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Nightingales were empty because there was no staff

[Sandstorm]

Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Nightingales were empty because there was no staff

Nonsense. The army were ready to step in and perform life-saving treatments on a brand new virus - with no training - at a moment’s notice.

[Torquemada 1420]

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Agree. And SA data has shown hospitalisation 90% fewer than earlier variants which, if accurate and representative elsewhere, would mean Omicron would effectively have to be 11x more infectious (combined effects) which seems highly unlikely.

In fact, way more than 11x because earlier variants of COVID have already culled the majority of those most vulnerable to it.

[Torquemada 1420]

Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Nightingales were empty because there was no staff

You are correct in that there were no appropriate staff but that's not why they were empty! All that meant was had there been any patients, no-one was available to treat them.

[Sandstorm]

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Agree. And SA data has shown hospitalisation 90% fewer than earlier variants which, if accurate and representative elsewhere, would mean Omicron would effectively have to be 11x more infectious (combined effects) which seems highly unlikely.

In fact, way more than 11x because earlier variants of COVID have already culled the majority of those most vulnerable to it.

If you’re right, then Boris and Co are going to make the rest of the world look really stupid for shutting their nightclubs!

[JM2K6]

That is not what the SA data is saying

[Biffer]

Anyone who says the data is definitely saying something at this point is not to be trusted. I’ve got one degree in Astronomy, one in economics and I work in a science environment. So I’m reasonably good with numbers and statistics. And I don’t really understand what the data is saying.

[tabascoboy]

After Toby Young writes a Mail+ comment piece titled 'At last, Boris has placed his trust in the common sense of the British people, not the Cassandras in lab coats' many point out that in Greek mythology, Cassandra was cursed to utter true prophecies that were not believed

Toby Young is the General Secretary of the Free Speech Union.

Honestly why do these types bemoan loss of free speech when nothing's actually stopping them spouting utter BS in the press...?

[Happyhooker]

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Nightingales were empty because there was no staff

You are correct in that there were no appropriate staff but that's not why they were empty! All that meant was had there been any patients, no-one was available to treat them.

Wrong. In London the hospitals were screaming to send patients there. The doctors who set up the nightingales mentioned over and over about lack of staffing but were told just to get on with sorting out the infrastructure. When they opened very few staff were transferred over. If they had been staffed the london ICUs would have emptied themselves into there and there were plans for them to be an A&E type triage reception for new patients.

That this didn't happen was purely down to the lack of staffing.

Edit. Source - I used to play rugby with one of the clinical directors.

[robmatic]

After Toby Young writes a Mail+ comment piece titled 'At last, Boris has placed his trust in the common sense of the British people, not the Cassandras in lab coats' many point out that in Greek mythology, Cassandra was cursed to utter true prophecies that were not believed

Toby Young is the General Secretary of the Free Speech Union.

Honestly why do these types bemoan loss of free speech when nothing's actually stopping them spouting utter BS in the press...?

It's distressing that we give him so much attention. He's thick as mince and basically innumerate, and has somehow set himself up as an armchair epidemiologist.

[dpedin]

They would be close to being overwhelmed regardless. To not be overwhelmed they need excess capacity. They have no excess capacity as any excess capacity would be engaged in tackling the massive waiting lists which had more than doubled in size even prior to the pandemic. The nhs has finite resources so more COVID cases means less people being treated for something else as resources/staff are shifted to treating COVID patients. Anti vaxxers are essentially denying someone else life changing/saving treatment.

Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Cause of death data is published regularly - see attached for England and Wales for September. Covid deaths are for when these are identified as underlying cause of death. This also provides a 5 year average so you can see trends up or down.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... tember2021

[dpedin]

Going to get nasty!

[JM2K6]

After Toby Young writes a Mail+ comment piece titled 'At last, Boris has placed his trust in the common sense of the British people, not the Cassandras in lab coats' many point out that in Greek mythology, Cassandra was cursed to utter true prophecies that were not believed

Toby Young is the General Secretary of the Free Speech Union.

Honestly why do these types bemoan loss of free speech when nothing's actually stopping them spouting utter BS in the press...?

Because he's a thick, ugly, unpleasant troll of a man who refuses to change and will never stop being bitter that he isn't worshipped by the entire population. These absolute fucking inadequates and bizarre weird men - see also Brendan O'Neill, Darren Grimes, and their ilk - have no actual talent in anything useful but have dedicated themselves to spraying their horseshit everywhere, and everything that threatens that is treated as a personal assault to be stamped out forever.

[dpedin]

Nightingales were empty because there was no staff

You are correct in that there were no appropriate staff but that's not why they were empty! All that meant was had there been any patients, no-one was available to treat them.

Wrong. In London the hospitals were screaming to send patients there. The doctors who set up the nightingales mentioned over and over about lack of staffing but were told just to get on with sorting out the infrastructure. When they opened very few staff were transferred over. If they had been staffed the london ICUs would have emptied themselves into there and there were plans for them to be an A&E type triage reception for new patients.

That this didn't happen was purely down to the lack of staffing.

Edit. Source - I used to play rugby with one of the clinical directors.

That's my understanding as well. Lack of staff was main reason why they weren't used as planned, despite pleas for retired staff, students, etc to come and work. My understanding was they were going to be used as both a triaging centre with the hope they could turn around some patients with oxygen only, hence some imaging equipment was located there, and also as a hospice type facility for those who weren't eligible to get into/stay in ICU were they to be overrun and were going to die anyway.

[Hal Jordan]

After Toby Young writes a Mail+ comment piece titled 'At last, Boris has placed his trust in the common sense of the British people, not the Cassandras in lab coats' many point out that in Greek mythology, Cassandra was cursed to utter true prophecies that were not believed

Toby Young is the General Secretary of the Free Speech Union.

Honestly why do these types bemoan loss of free speech when nothing's actually stopping them spouting utter BS in the press...?

It's distressing that we give him so much attention. He's thick as mince and basically innumerate, and has somehow set himself up as an armchair epidemiologist.

Professional outrage grifter for hire and clicks.