So, coronavirus...

[Torquemada 1420]

They would be close to being overwhelmed regardless. To not be overwhelmed they need excess capacity. They have no excess capacity as any excess capacity would be engaged in tackling the massive waiting lists which had more than doubled in size even prior to the pandemic. The nhs has finite resources so more COVID cases means less people being treated for something else as resources/staff are shifted to treating COVID patients. Anti vaxxers are essentially denying someone else life changing/saving treatment.

Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

[Torquemada 1420]

My tolerance for the stupidity and selfishness of anti-vaxxers is very low. How nhs staff don't want to smash their stupid heads repeatedly against a wall instead of treating them I don't know.

Presumably the same for fatties (of which NHS staff themselves have an embarrassingly significant proportion), smokers and the Fri/Sat night drunken morons who block A&Es up and down the country?

[Sandstorm]

They would be close to being overwhelmed regardless. To not be overwhelmed they need excess capacity. They have no excess capacity as any excess capacity would be engaged in tackling the massive waiting lists which had more than doubled in size even prior to the pandemic. The nhs has finite resources so more COVID cases means less people being treated for something else as resources/staff are shifted to treating COVID patients. Anti vaxxers are essentially denying someone else life changing/saving treatment.

Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

[Biffer]

At all previous crossroads I've been fairly clear in my head that a lockdown was required before the Government caved to it. March 2020, Autumn 2020 and December 2020.

The picture is far less straight forward now though for me. Clearly hospitalisations will increase over the next few weeks, but the extent of that still seems to be in question. Essentially the game has changed with the increased level of immunity resulting from the vaccine that does seem to be very successful in guarding against the worst outcomes. I'm not saying that further restrictions may not be necessary, but it does seem that the impact of full lockdowns is reduced, where as the economic cost remains the same.

By many accounts ICU's are full of unvaccinated people (almost all through their choice). Whilst that won't always be the case, I'd be reticent to swallow another round of restrictions of the type we've seen in the past unless hospitals were being completely overwhelmed. And given the people I would mix with on a regular basis are non vulnerable and triple jabbed, I'd be inclined to ignore any restrictions on things like household mixing.

Hospitals are close to being overwhelmed in London and this will likely be the case across the country soon. Problem this time is that omicron is as we know very, very virulent and the NHS will like everywhere else see significant staff absences due to omicron infections, isolating or caring for kids/elderly relatives. Beds are not the issue - it is availability of staffed beds that is very problematic. If the NHS see's nursing staff absence of 10-20% on top of the existing 10% vacancies then the NHS will struggle to cope with additional volumes of patients. Example - An ICU bed requires a 1:1 qualified nurse to bed ratio 24/7 - add in additional qualified staff time to cover breaks plus doing additional tasks like rotating patients etc and then add in 20% on top to cover annual leave, training, etc it means you need about 6.5 to 7 qualified ICU nurses per bed. ICU ward of 10 beds requires 65 to 70 wte nurses which will mean about 80'ish nurses as many work part time. If you are down 8 because of vacancies already and then lose another 10 - 15 or more to absence then you can't staff 10 ICU beds safely with 60 ish staff. You either spread qualified staff more thinly or staff ICU beds with unqualified nurses - both very unsafe and contrary to guidance - or close 2 or 3 beds. This is the problem - these staff are knackered and at the end of their tether, they have been working flat out for best part of 2 years.

I was in hospital for an outpatient appt a few weeks ago. Because of infection control the clinic was running at 50% of patient numbers so they were running extra clinics. Nurse looking after me said she normally worked part time 2 days a week in run down to retirement but because of covid was now working 4 long days a week. She should have retired some months ago but agreed to stay on because of staff shortages and she didn't want to let her colleagues down. She is going in March and they can't recruit to her post. She was concerned but said she couldn't do it anymore. Individuals staff are overwhelmed!

I don’t doubt you but it’s strange they’re close to being overwhelmed with less than a quarter of the patients they had last year (1,900 v 8,000).

That's because they emptied the hospitals of other work last winter. That created a massive backlog and the NHS is under pressure from this as well.

[petej]

They would be close to being overwhelmed regardless. To not be overwhelmed they need excess capacity. They have no excess capacity as any excess capacity would be engaged in tackling the massive waiting lists which had more than doubled in size even prior to the pandemic. The nhs has finite resources so more COVID cases means less people being treated for something else as resources/staff are shifted to treating COVID patients. Anti vaxxers are essentially denying someone else life changing/saving treatment.

Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

if only twat Hancock and bumblecunt had played theme hospital they would know that as well as having to build it you have to staff it as well.

[Biffer]

They would be close to being overwhelmed regardless. To not be overwhelmed they need excess capacity. They have no excess capacity as any excess capacity would be engaged in tackling the massive waiting lists which had more than doubled in size even prior to the pandemic. The nhs has finite resources so more COVID cases means less people being treated for something else as resources/staff are shifted to treating COVID patients. Anti vaxxers are essentially denying someone else life changing/saving treatment.

Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Nightingales were empty because there was no staff

[Sandstorm]

Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Nightingales were empty because there was no staff

Nonsense. The army were ready to step in and perform life-saving treatments on a brand new virus - with no training - at a moment’s notice.

[Torquemada 1420]

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Agree. And SA data has shown hospitalisation 90% fewer than earlier variants which, if accurate and representative elsewhere, would mean Omicron would effectively have to be 11x more infectious (combined effects) which seems highly unlikely.

In fact, way more than 11x because earlier variants of COVID have already culled the majority of those most vulnerable to it.

[Torquemada 1420]

Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Nightingales were empty because there was no staff

You are correct in that there were no appropriate staff but that's not why they were empty! All that meant was had there been any patients, no-one was available to treat them.

[Sandstorm]

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Agree. And SA data has shown hospitalisation 90% fewer than earlier variants which, if accurate and representative elsewhere, would mean Omicron would effectively have to be 11x more infectious (combined effects) which seems highly unlikely.

In fact, way more than 11x because earlier variants of COVID have already culled the majority of those most vulnerable to it.

If you’re right, then Boris and Co are going to make the rest of the world look really stupid for shutting their nightclubs!

[JM2K6]

That is not what the SA data is saying

[Biffer]

Anyone who says the data is definitely saying something at this point is not to be trusted. I’ve got one degree in Astronomy, one in economics and I work in a science environment. So I’m reasonably good with numbers and statistics. And I don’t really understand what the data is saying.

[tabascoboy]

After Toby Young writes a Mail+ comment piece titled 'At last, Boris has placed his trust in the common sense of the British people, not the Cassandras in lab coats' many point out that in Greek mythology, Cassandra was cursed to utter true prophecies that were not believed

Toby Young is the General Secretary of the Free Speech Union.

Honestly why do these types bemoan loss of free speech when nothing's actually stopping them spouting utter BS in the press...?

[Happyhooker]

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Nightingales were empty because there was no staff

You are correct in that there were no appropriate staff but that's not why they were empty! All that meant was had there been any patients, no-one was available to treat them.

Wrong. In London the hospitals were screaming to send patients there. The doctors who set up the nightingales mentioned over and over about lack of staffing but were told just to get on with sorting out the infrastructure. When they opened very few staff were transferred over. If they had been staffed the london ICUs would have emptied themselves into there and there were plans for them to be an A&E type triage reception for new patients.

That this didn't happen was purely down to the lack of staffing.

Edit. Source - I used to play rugby with one of the clinical directors.

[robmatic]

After Toby Young writes a Mail+ comment piece titled 'At last, Boris has placed his trust in the common sense of the British people, not the Cassandras in lab coats' many point out that in Greek mythology, Cassandra was cursed to utter true prophecies that were not believed

Toby Young is the General Secretary of the Free Speech Union.

Honestly why do these types bemoan loss of free speech when nothing's actually stopping them spouting utter BS in the press...?

It's distressing that we give him so much attention. He's thick as mince and basically innumerate, and has somehow set himself up as an armchair epidemiologist.

[dpedin]

They would be close to being overwhelmed regardless. To not be overwhelmed they need excess capacity. They have no excess capacity as any excess capacity would be engaged in tackling the massive waiting lists which had more than doubled in size even prior to the pandemic. The nhs has finite resources so more COVID cases means less people being treated for something else as resources/staff are shifted to treating COVID patients. Anti vaxxers are essentially denying someone else life changing/saving treatment.

Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Cause of death data is published regularly - see attached for England and Wales for September. Covid deaths are for when these are identified as underlying cause of death. This also provides a 5 year average so you can see trends up or down.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... tember2021

[dpedin]

Going to get nasty!

[JM2K6]

After Toby Young writes a Mail+ comment piece titled 'At last, Boris has placed his trust in the common sense of the British people, not the Cassandras in lab coats' many point out that in Greek mythology, Cassandra was cursed to utter true prophecies that were not believed

Toby Young is the General Secretary of the Free Speech Union.

Honestly why do these types bemoan loss of free speech when nothing's actually stopping them spouting utter BS in the press...?

Because he's a thick, ugly, unpleasant troll of a man who refuses to change and will never stop being bitter that he isn't worshipped by the entire population. These absolute fucking inadequates and bizarre weird men - see also Brendan O'Neill, Darren Grimes, and their ilk - have no actual talent in anything useful but have dedicated themselves to spraying their horseshit everywhere, and everything that threatens that is treated as a personal assault to be stamped out forever.

[dpedin]

Nightingales were empty because there was no staff

You are correct in that there were no appropriate staff but that's not why they were empty! All that meant was had there been any patients, no-one was available to treat them.

Wrong. In London the hospitals were screaming to send patients there. The doctors who set up the nightingales mentioned over and over about lack of staffing but were told just to get on with sorting out the infrastructure. When they opened very few staff were transferred over. If they had been staffed the london ICUs would have emptied themselves into there and there were plans for them to be an A&E type triage reception for new patients.

That this didn't happen was purely down to the lack of staffing.

Edit. Source - I used to play rugby with one of the clinical directors.

That's my understanding as well. Lack of staff was main reason why they weren't used as planned, despite pleas for retired staff, students, etc to come and work. My understanding was they were going to be used as both a triaging centre with the hope they could turn around some patients with oxygen only, hence some imaging equipment was located there, and also as a hospice type facility for those who weren't eligible to get into/stay in ICU were they to be overrun and were going to die anyway.

[Hal Jordan]

After Toby Young writes a Mail+ comment piece titled 'At last, Boris has placed his trust in the common sense of the British people, not the Cassandras in lab coats' many point out that in Greek mythology, Cassandra was cursed to utter true prophecies that were not believed

Toby Young is the General Secretary of the Free Speech Union.

Honestly why do these types bemoan loss of free speech when nothing's actually stopping them spouting utter BS in the press...?

It's distressing that we give him so much attention. He's thick as mince and basically innumerate, and has somehow set himself up as an armchair epidemiologist.

Professional outrage grifter for hire and clicks.

[salanya]

119k cases

Well, Boris can congratulate himself on another record.

It may be less severe, but these numbers negate that. Poor NHS staff must be bricking it.

[SaintK]

119k cases

Well, Boris can congratulate himself on another record.

It may be less severe, but these numbers negate that. Poor NHS staff must be bricking it.

They appear to be dropping like flies, poor bastards!

The number of NHS staff off sick because of Covid is soaring, new figures show, raising fresh fears about how hospitals will be able to respond to any Omicron-driven surge in patients needing care.
One health service leader said the NHS was now facing “a double emergency” of growing numbers of people hospitalised with Covid alongside increasing sickness absence on the frontline.
The number of staff days lost to Covid across the NHS in England hit 124,855 last week, a 38% jump on the 90,277 seen the week before, according to the latest “winter sitreps” data published by NHS England.

[dpedin]

119k cases

Well, Boris can congratulate himself on another record.

It may be less severe, but these numbers negate that. Poor NHS staff must be bricking it.

SAGE warning on 20th December that testing behaviour and testing capacity may be affecting case data and that is problematic making interpretation of trends difficult - Sky News.

[Ymx]

So I’m day 5/6 after symptoms. So far it’s been a mild cold for me. Just a bit sneezy (not surprised it’s so infectious), but carried on working (from home of course). Others I know currently also similarly little affected. This is compared to others I know in from much weeks/earlier months (with no doubt delta) where it wiped them out.

So from my tiny sample set of experience, it’s very mild. Hopefully it gives me immunity from delta, although I’m fully vaxed as well, so fingers crossed I’m looking alright.

[Ymx]

I think it’s a sound move to reduce to 7 days based on consecutive days on negative lat flow. Should hopefully help the country in action better, esp NHS hospital staff, which i suspect is likely to be more an issue (staff in isolation) than any modest increase in the numbers going to hospital.

[Ovals]

So I’m day 5/6 after symptoms. So far it’s been a mild cold for me. Just a bit sneezy (not surprised it’s so infectious), but carried on working (from home of course). Others I know currently also similarly little affected. This is compared to others I know in from much weeks/earlier months (with no doubt delta) where it wiped them out.

So from my tiny sample set of experience, it’s very mild. Hopefully it gives me immunity from delta, although I’m fully vaxed as well, so fingers crossed I’m looking alright.

Good to hear you're on the mend and haven't suffered too much. Sounds like you'll be good for Xmas.

[dpedin]

119k cases

Well, Boris can congratulate himself on another record.

It may be less severe, but these numbers negate that. Poor NHS staff must be bricking it.

They appear to be dropping like flies, poor bastards!

The number of NHS staff off sick because of Covid is soaring, new figures show, raising fresh fears about how hospitals will be able to respond to any Omicron-driven surge in patients needing care.
One health service leader said the NHS was now facing “a double emergency” of growing numbers of people hospitalised with Covid alongside increasing sickness absence on the frontline.
The number of staff days lost to Covid across the NHS in England hit 124,855 last week, a 38% jump on the 90,277 seen the week before, according to the latest “winter sitreps” data published by NHS England.

Staff absence a major problem for coming weeks. Hearing of 6% nursing absence from covid alone in big board up here in Scotland - put that on top of nursing vacancies of 8-9% plus annual leave and other 'usual' sickness then it is pretty awful. Also care homes and wider social care sector the same so patients can't be discharged out of hospitals so causing major flow problems from the front door with large number of patients backing up in A&E.

[Sandstorm]

So I’m day 5/6 after symptoms. So far it’s been a mild cold for me. Just a bit sneezy (not surprised it’s so infectious), but carried on working (from home of course). Others I know currently also similarly little affected. This is compared to others I know in from much weeks/earlier months (with no doubt delta) where it wiped them out.

So from my tiny sample set of experience, it’s very mild. Hopefully it gives me immunity from delta, although I’m fully vaxed as well, so fingers crossed I’m looking alright.

How do you know you’ve got Omicron? Did anyone confirm it?

You might have Delta and be hard as nails!

[Ymx]

So I’m day 5/6 after symptoms. So far it’s been a mild cold for me. Just a bit sneezy (not surprised it’s so infectious), but carried on working (from home of course). Others I know currently also similarly little affected. This is compared to others I know in from much weeks/earlier months (with no doubt delta) where it wiped them out.

So from my tiny sample set of experience, it’s very mild. Hopefully it gives me immunity from delta, although I’m fully vaxed as well, so fingers crossed I’m looking alright.

How do you know you’ve got Omicron? Did anyone confirm it?

You might have Delta and be hard as nails!

Only indications being the symptoms seem consistent with it. But also that a contact I had pinged needed to take lat flows for 7 days. Opposed to when they ironically pinged us several weeks back before, and we were not asked to take lat flows after the PCR test.

[Sandstorm]

Well it sounds like you’ve got the new variant Sigma. First one out of the box. Good luck.

[Ymx]

Well it sounds like you’ve got the new variant Sigma. First one out of the box. Good luck.

Although I hear in the not too distant future the WHO might be releasing a new model in ‘22. Though I wouldn’t take it early as it’s likely a bit buggy. And hear they are having manufacturing issues out in China.

[notfatcat]

Is this one of the posters on here shown on the Beeb lead story?

Looks a bit tall and skinny so maybe not.

[Slick]

Is this one of the posters on here shown on the Beeb lead story?

Looks a bit tall and skinny so maybe not.

uncanny/not uncanny

[laurent]

Need to get tested tomorrow of all days

[Ovals]

Need to get tested tomorrow of all days

Bummer. Hope it's clear - Best of luck

[Sandstorm]

Need to get tested tomorrow of all days

Bummer. Hope it's clear - Best of luck

Good luck Laurent

[laurent]

Cheers

I have no symptoms and contact was around the 15th so hopefully nothing.

[Blackmac]

Last week I had a horrific cold which was so bad it caused me to twice do LFT tests, both of which proved negative. On Sunday I got my Moderna booster and lied through my teeth about no Covid symptoms, good health etc. My advice is, for the love of god don't. I think I had the most miserable 48 hours of my life. Absolutely horrific reaction.
Of course none of it was helped by my nurse wife constantly tutting and say "I told you so you stupid prick"

[Blackmac]

119k cases

Well, Boris can congratulate himself on another record.

It may be less severe, but these numbers negate that. Poor NHS staff must be bricking it.

So far Omicron itself has barely registered any uptick at my wife's hospital with regards to patients. It's the staff absence rates causing the problems. Just about every nurse with a school aged child seems to have it.

[Mahoney]

London admissions not looking good. > 40% rise between 18th Dec and 21st Dec.

Screenshot 2021-12-24 at 09.35.56.png (126.3 KiB) Viewed 1349 times

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... o_hospital