So, coronavirus...

Where goats go to escape
petej
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laurent wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:04 pm 300 000 today in France

This is not going well.

The government refuses to close the schools or take drastic measures.

from a sample of hearsay a lot of classes have closed and some schools have gone on strike (because Blanquer is a liar)
220,000 in the UK. Is that a couple of days worth in France?

Does France have an equivalent to the UK prevalence studies?
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laurent
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Marylandolorian wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:24 pm
laurent wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:04 pm 300 000 today in France

This is not going well.

The government refuses to close the schools or take drastic measures.

from a sample of hearsay a lot of classes have closed and some schools have gone on strike (because Blanquer is a liar)
300k :wtf:
France as already things like the health/shots pass, masks mandatory inside, now they put a 5000 max occupancy in stadiums etc. What types of drastic measures would you like to see?
Closing the fucking schools would be a help to avoid further contamination in the non vaccinated population Bars and restaurants + curfew next. but at this stage it's rampant with > 10% of population contact cases.
petej
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laurent wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:35 pm
Marylandolorian wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:24 pm
laurent wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:04 pm 300 000 today in France

This is not going well.

The government refuses to close the schools or take drastic measures.

from a sample of hearsay a lot of classes have closed and some schools have gone on strike (because Blanquer is a liar)
300k :wtf:
France as already things like the health/shots pass, masks mandatory inside, now they put a 5000 max occupancy in stadiums etc. What types of drastic measures would you like to see?
Closing the fucking schools would be a help to avoid further contamination in the non vaccinated population Bars and restaurants + curfew next. but at this stage it's rampant with > 10% of population contact cases.
School closures are wrong when the young are at very, very low risk.

I was impressed to see the +ve in tests in Wales reported as 50% today.
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laurent
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petej wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:50 pm
laurent wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:35 pm
Marylandolorian wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:24 pm
300k :wtf:
France as already things like the health/shots pass, masks mandatory inside, now they put a 5000 max occupancy in stadiums etc. What types of drastic measures would you like to see?
Closing the fucking schools would be a help to avoid further contamination in the non vaccinated population Bars and restaurants + curfew next. but at this stage it's rampant with > 10% of population contact cases.
School closures are wrong when the young are at very, very low risk.

I was impressed to see the +ve in tests in Wales reported as 50% today.
They are spreading the virus in the rest of the population the fact that they are low risk is irrelevant.
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JM2K6
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laurent wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:02 pm
petej wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:50 pm
laurent wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:35 pm
Closing the fucking schools would be a help to avoid further contamination in the non vaccinated population Bars and restaurants + curfew next. but at this stage it's rampant with > 10% of population contact cases.
School closures are wrong when the young are at very, very low risk.

I was impressed to see the +ve in tests in Wales reported as 50% today.
They are spreading the virus in the rest of the population the fact that they are low risk is irrelevant.
It's not like he hasn't been told this a thousand times
petej
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laurent wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:02 pm
petej wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:50 pm
laurent wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:35 pm
Closing the fucking schools would be a help to avoid further contamination in the non vaccinated population Bars and restaurants + curfew next. but at this stage it's rampant with > 10% of population contact cases.
School closures are wrong when the young are at very, very low risk.

I was impressed to see the +ve in tests in Wales reported as 50% today.
They are spreading the virus in the rest of the population the fact that they are low risk is irrelevant.
It actually isn't irrelevant. It has a smaller impact than other NPIs for a big societal cost. It will undoubtedly be highlighted as a big mistake in future analysis. Closing schools will achieve little in the medium and long term.the unvaccinated are going to get infected all you might achieve is delaying this by a few weeks maybe a month at best.
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JM2K6
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Buying time allows for the unvaccinated to get vaccinated, for the unboosted to get boosted.

I'd be fine with schools not closing if a serious effort was made to make them covid-safe with proper ventilation, but in this country it's a disaster and I doubt France has done much better.
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Paddington Bear
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Closing schools is a massively immoral policy IMO and we will discover the effects of it in 10 years time or so.
Old men forget: yet all shall be forgot, But he'll remember with advantages, What feats he did that day
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laurent
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Paddington Bear wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:17 pm Closing schools is a massively immoral policy IMO and we will discover the effects of it in 10 years time or so.
We will discover the effects of not closing them a lot quicker ...
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Uncle fester
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laurent wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:21 pm
Paddington Bear wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:17 pm Closing schools is a massively immoral policy IMO and we will discover the effects of it in 10 years time or so.
We will discover the effects of not closing them a lot quicker ...
It's not like these guys will be held accountable in ten years time anyway.
robmatic
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JM2K6 wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:17 pm Buying time allows for the unvaccinated to get vaccinated, for the unboosted to get boosted.

I'd be fine with schools not closing if a serious effort was made to make them covid-safe with proper ventilation, but in this country it's a disaster and I doubt France has done much better.
There aren't that many unvaccinated left in the UK - and if they've held out this long I doubt they will be in a rush to get a jab now. Closing schools is a pretty blunt tool that probably doesn't have that much benefit at this stage of the pandemic.
sefton
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I’ve seen first hand the impact of closing schools, it should be a last resort, shut bars and sporting events before that.
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Uncle fester
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sefton wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:32 pm I’ve seen first hand the impact of closing schools, it should be a last resort, shut bars and sporting events before that.
What practical measures do work in schools?
Mask wearing is a tough ask, especially for young children but in busier classrooms, it's probably the only way forward.
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JM2K6
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robmatic wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:31 pm
JM2K6 wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:17 pm Buying time allows for the unvaccinated to get vaccinated, for the unboosted to get boosted.

I'd be fine with schools not closing if a serious effort was made to make them covid-safe with proper ventilation, but in this country it's a disaster and I doubt France has done much better.
There aren't that many unvaccinated left in the UK - and if they've held out this long I doubt they will be in a rush to get a jab now. Closing schools is a pretty blunt tool that probably doesn't have that much benefit at this stage of the pandemic.
If only that were true, eh.
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Margin__Walker
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Closing schools made sense before with ICUs overflowing with patients on ventilators and no mitigation in place pre vaccine.

It should absolutely be a last resort though and I don't think we are anywhere close to that now. It has a huge impact on children.
petej
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Margin__Walker wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:56 pm Closing schools made sense before with ICUs overflowing with patients on ventilators and no mitigation in place pre vaccine.

It should absolutely be a last resort though and I don't think we are anywhere close to that now. It has a huge impact on children.
Even then it was morally sketchy as child to child and child to adult transmission was low with the original and alpha and most the benefit came from childcare responsibilities lowering the number of contacts the parents had. The finger pointing at minor's is very shitty.
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salanya
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I agree that closing schools is one of the last resorts.

But if there aren't any healthy teachers to teach and look after the kids, there is a problem.

Hence they should have had some extra measures earlier, like limiting the thousands of football and darts fans (and other sports I'm sure) congregating. That prioritisation task shouldn't have been too difficult.

The issue isn't so much about the IC hospitalisations and deaths anymore, but the high infections which are damaging the functioning of society, and therefore the economy.
Let's hope we'll be out of this wave in a month or so, but we've really made things harder for ourselves.
Over the hills and far away........
sefton
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Staffing is the major issue, there wasn’t a supply teacher free in Merseyside before Christmas so we were doubling classes up.
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Margin__Walker
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salanya wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:54 pm I agree that closing schools is one of the last resorts.

But if there aren't any healthy teachers to teach and look after the kids, there is a problem.

Hence they should have had some extra measures earlier, like limiting the thousands of football and darts fans (and other sports I'm sure) congregating. That prioritisation task shouldn't have been too difficult.

The issue isn't so much about the IC hospitalisations and deaths anymore, but the high infections which are damaging the functioning of society, and therefore the economy.
Let's hope we'll be out of this wave in a month or so, but we've really made things harder for ourselves.
I guess then it depends on what % of those teachers are too Ill to work and what % are off work because they have a positive test/close contact and are seeing out the isolation period.

Ultimately that will have to be looked at as the rate of serious outcomes per infection continues to decrease as it has.
Slick
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Now that we have a variant that doesn’t seem to be causing so much human damage, and seem to have most people ( not kids of course) jagged who want to be, shouldn’t we be throwing vaccines at the rest of the world?

It all seems to have gone quiet on this front but it seems to me that we need to stop fucking about and get it out there
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Ymx
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Slick wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:56 am The family we have spent the last 2 days with have all tested positive on LFT. Great.
Fun waiting game for you then. Best get your groceries in, assuming your lat flows are all clear still.
Last edited by Ymx on Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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salanya
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Margin__Walker wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:07 pm
salanya wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:54 pm I agree that closing schools is one of the last resorts.

But if there aren't any healthy teachers to teach and look after the kids, there is a problem.

Hence they should have had some extra measures earlier, like limiting the thousands of football and darts fans (and other sports I'm sure) congregating. That prioritisation task shouldn't have been too difficult.

The issue isn't so much about the IC hospitalisations and deaths anymore, but the high infections which are damaging the functioning of society, and therefore the economy.
Let's hope we'll be out of this wave in a month or so, but we've really made things harder for ourselves.

I guess then it depends on what % of those teachers are too Ill to work and what % are off work because they have a positive test/close contact and are seeing out the isolation period.

Ultimately that will have to be looked at as the rate of serious outcomes per infection continues to decrease as it has.
It doesn't really matter for the school opening debate right now whether the teacher is ill or just infectious: they can't go into the school for at least a week. And seeing that the virus is still spreading, other staff will likely be off by the time the recovered teacher gets back. And some people still end up in hospital: we've nearly doubled hospitalisations in 2 weeks, which means being out of school for a good while longer.

And that's still ignoring other staff like cleaners, bus drivers, dinner ladies, nursery staff etc.

Again, hopefully the worst will be behind us in a few weeks, but the debate this wave isn't about keeping schools open and fewer hospitalisations: it's about having enough healthy, non-infectious people to staff schools, hospitals and other facets of society.
Over the hills and far away........
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salanya
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Slick wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:16 pm Now that we have a variant that doesn’t seem to be causing so much human damage, and seem to have most people ( not kids of course) jagged who want to be, shouldn’t we be throwing vaccines at the rest of the world?

It all seems to have gone quiet on this front but it seems to me that we need to stop fucking about and get it out there
Agree on that one.

Quite mad that we're talking about a 4th jab just over a year after the vaccine came into public circulation, where many people in the poorest countries haven't even had an opportunity to get 1 vaccination.
Over the hills and far away........
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Calculon
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sefton wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:32 pm I’ve seen first hand the impact of closing schools, it should be a last resort, shut bars and sporting events before that.


Same here, school closures have a massively negative effect on children, especially those from low-socioeconomic status households. Not fair to punish children to protect (mainly unvaccinated and often obese) adults.
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Calculon
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salanya wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:30 pm
Slick wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:16 pm Now that we have a variant that doesn’t seem to be causing so much human damage, and seem to have most people ( not kids of course) jagged who want to be, shouldn’t we be throwing vaccines at the rest of the world?

It all seems to have gone quiet on this front but it seems to me that we need to stop fucking about and get it out there
Agree on that one.

Quite mad that we're talking about a 4th jab just over a year after the vaccine came into public circulation, where many people in the poorest countries haven't even had an opportunity to get 1 vaccination.
If you're poor and living in a poor country get vaccinated is usually very low on your list of priorities. Throwing vaccines at these countries is not going to help much.
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laurent
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The schools will be almost all closed next week so what is the point ?

We are at 300000 positive a day what will it be friday 500000 ?

By not closing they made sure the country would shut down it seems.
petej
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laurent wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:54 pm The schools will be almost all closed next week so what is the point ?

We are at 300000 positive a day what will it be friday 500000 ?

By not closing they made sure the country would shut down it seems.
But you're not at 300000 a day. You've had two days of backlog after low counts. You are similar to the UK. Your dashboard doesn't seem to indicate when the days announced cases were tested unlike the UK one and to be fair the Welsh one.
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fishfoodie
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petej wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:17 pm
laurent wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:54 pm The schools will be almost all closed next week so what is the point ?

We are at 300000 positive a day what will it be friday 500000 ?

By not closing they made sure the country would shut down it seems.
But you're not at 300000 a day. You've had two days of backlog after low counts. You are similar to the UK. Your dashboard doesn't seem to indicate when the days announced cases were tested unlike the UK one and to be fair the Welsh one.
They're not at 300k, because just like the uk, & everywhere else; they don't have enough pcr tests processed to give them a true figure.
Biffer
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robmatic wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:31 pm
JM2K6 wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:17 pm Buying time allows for the unvaccinated to get vaccinated, for the unboosted to get boosted.

I'd be fine with schools not closing if a serious effort was made to make them covid-safe with proper ventilation, but in this country it's a disaster and I doubt France has done much better.
There aren't that many unvaccinated left in the UK - and if they've held out this long I doubt they will be in a rush to get a jab now. Closing schools is a pretty blunt tool that probably doesn't have that much benefit at this stage of the pandemic.
30% of over 12s in London haven't had a single shot of the vaccine.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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Enzedder
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Just 17 community cases here today, 16 delta. We cannot get it right down to nothing
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Ymx
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Enzedder wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:33 am Just 17 community cases here today, 16 delta. We cannot get it right down to nothing
You wait until Omicron spreads it’s wings. You’ll soon give up the ghost.
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FalseBayFC
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Ymx wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:31 am
Enzedder wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:33 am Just 17 community cases here today, 16 delta. We cannot get it right down to nothing
You wait until Omicron spreads it’s wings. You’ll soon give up the ghost.
NZ are very good at this Covid thing. I imagine them guarding their beaches like the Sentinelese people on the Andaman Islands with bows and arrows and Hakas. I think the world will look on with horrified fascination when they eventually open up and let her rip.
dpedin
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Biffer wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:18 am
robmatic wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:31 pm
JM2K6 wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:17 pm Buying time allows for the unvaccinated to get vaccinated, for the unboosted to get boosted.

I'd be fine with schools not closing if a serious effort was made to make them covid-safe with proper ventilation, but in this country it's a disaster and I doubt France has done much better.
There aren't that many unvaccinated left in the UK - and if they've held out this long I doubt they will be in a rush to get a jab now. Closing schools is a pretty blunt tool that probably doesn't have that much benefit at this stage of the pandemic.
30% of over 12s in London haven't had a single shot of the vaccine.
9.5m not eligible (kids etc) and 5.5m eligible but not vaccinated plus others not on the record ie refugees, illegal immigrants etc. That's aprox 15+m folk unvaccinated which is a pretty sizeable pool for covid to circulate in! Plus let's not forget about omicrons ability to reinfect those who have already have covid. Schools are an excellent breeding ground for infectious diseases and brilliant for seeding the rest of the population as kids go home to parents, grandparents, etc. Oh and lets not forget about long covid impact.

I cannot understand why the Gov didnt take the easy option of putting HEPA filtration/ventilation systems in every school over the summer months, relatively cheap option compared to disrupted supply lines, cancelled flights and trains and overwhelmed NHS with wards in tents in car parks.
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JM2K6
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That's what gets me with this government (and some of the anti-lockdown types, who seem to share some of the same thought processes). It's all well and good not wanting to do X, but how about putting effort into proper alternatives, rather than just doing nothing? You don't want to close schools - fine! So do what you can to make them safer. Every time there's a difficult decision they vacillate and talk a lot and do fucking nothing until they're left with doing something drastic or doing nothing at all. It doesn't need to be a binary choice.
dpedin
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JM2K6 wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:03 pm That's what gets me with this government (and some of the anti-lockdown types, who seem to share some of the same thought processes). It's all well and good not wanting to do X, but how about putting effort into proper alternatives, rather than just doing nothing? You don't want to close schools - fine! So do what you can to make them safer. Every time there's a difficult decision they vacillate and talk a lot and do fucking nothing until they're left with doing something drastic or doing nothing at all. It doesn't need to be a binary choice.
Exactly this! No one wants lock downs, economy knackered, NHS on its knees and schools closed etc.Taking sensible and low cost PH mitigations alongside the vaccination programme - masks, distancing where possible, WFH where possible, HEPA standard ventilation in schools, better ventilation, better and consistent communications, etc would mitigate some of the effect of the pandemic and enable the economy and schools to stay open. Doing nothing beyond vaccinations or minimal effort as this shower of a Gov seems to support just leads to more closures and bigger economic impact of covid. Worse still it means the NHS is struggling to cope with covid, particularly amongst the unvaccinated, and as a result other patients suffer due to cancelled ops etc. Gov cannot adopt a laissez faire approach to leadership during a pandemic, its primary role is to protect its people. Poor public health = poor economic health!
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Paddington Bear
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laurent wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:21 pm
Paddington Bear wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:17 pm Closing schools is a massively immoral policy IMO and we will discover the effects of it in 10 years time or so.
We will discover the effects of not closing them a lot quicker ...
I run a lot of training (for adults). It is something I am good at, I walk through the theory slowly, ask questions, stop for questions, work through examples, show demo videos etc. Then when I send groups off to have a practice, if they're doing so online at least 10% will do entirely the opposite of what they're supposed to do, and most of the rest do significantly worse than groups I train face to face. This is professional adults taking training that has direct consequences for their job.
I end each day I do it genuinely shattered from the energy it takes just to keep things running as they should do, normally this is the absolute doss part of my job.

Christ knows what it's like dealing with ordinary kids, let alone those with learning difficulties, difficult home set ups or lack of working space etc. I know there's plenty of research on the impact of the summer holidays on these kids, imagine lockdowns and virtual learning.

I know there's no perfect solutions but for me it's clear - if the trade off is between the education and wellbeing of kids and the health of the unvaccinated then fuck the unvaccinated. I have some sympathy for those from the former Eastern Bloc on their scepticism but in the end the unvaccinated have failed to do their civic duty and whilst it's their choice, it's time for them to take the consequences, not others.
Old men forget: yet all shall be forgot, But he'll remember with advantages, What feats he did that day
petej
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dpedin wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:33 pm
JM2K6 wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:03 pm That's what gets me with this government (and some of the anti-lockdown types, who seem to share some of the same thought processes). It's all well and good not wanting to do X, but how about putting effort into proper alternatives, rather than just doing nothing? You don't want to close schools - fine! So do what you can to make them safer. Every time there's a difficult decision they vacillate and talk a lot and do fucking nothing until they're left with doing something drastic or doing nothing at all. It doesn't need to be a binary choice.
Exactly this! No one wants lock downs, economy knackered, NHS on its knees and schools closed etc.Taking sensible and low cost PH mitigations alongside the vaccination programme - masks, distancing where possible, WFH where possible, HEPA standard ventilation in schools, better ventilation, better and consistent communications, etc would mitigate some of the effect of the pandemic and enable the economy and schools to stay open. Doing nothing beyond vaccinations or minimal effort as this shower of a Gov seems to support just leads to more closures and bigger economic impact of covid. Worse still it means the NHS is struggling to cope with covid, particularly amongst the unvaccinated, and as a result other patients suffer due to cancelled ops etc. Gov cannot adopt a laissez faire approach to leadership during a pandemic, its primary role is to protect its people. Poor public health = poor economic health!
This government is full of short term-ist, cost saving fuckwits. I've had 5+ years of total fuckwittery since Brexit and 10+ of austerity. The fact they are shit at everything bar bullshiting is not at all surprising. Johnson doesn't have a laissez faire approach to leadership as he does interfere. He is indecisive. I have no interest in expending any emotional energy being outraged at whatever dumb thing they have done.
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fishfoodie
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dpedin wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:33 pm
JM2K6 wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:03 pm That's what gets me with this government (and some of the anti-lockdown types, who seem to share some of the same thought processes). It's all well and good not wanting to do X, but how about putting effort into proper alternatives, rather than just doing nothing? You don't want to close schools - fine! So do what you can to make them safer. Every time there's a difficult decision they vacillate and talk a lot and do fucking nothing until they're left with doing something drastic or doing nothing at all. It doesn't need to be a binary choice.
Exactly this! No one wants lock downs, economy knackered, NHS on its knees and schools closed etc.Taking sensible and low cost PH mitigations alongside the vaccination programme - masks, distancing where possible, WFH where possible, HEPA standard ventilation in schools, better ventilation, better and consistent communications, etc would mitigate some of the effect of the pandemic and enable the economy and schools to stay open. Doing nothing beyond vaccinations or minimal effort as this shower of a Gov seems to support just leads to more closures and bigger economic impact of covid. Worse still it means the NHS is struggling to cope with covid, particularly amongst the unvaccinated, and as a result other patients suffer due to cancelled ops etc. Gov cannot adopt a laissez faire approach to leadership during a pandemic, its primary role is to protect its people. Poor public health = poor economic health!
Unfortunately the UK elected a lazy cunt as PM; who thinks his role, begins, & ends with doing cosplay photo ops; & who surrounded himself with a circus of cretins, who are primarily focused on enriching themselves, & their mates; & because they're basically bulletproof; there's no incentive not to fail miserably.
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laurent
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Paddington Bear wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:01 pm
laurent wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:21 pm
Paddington Bear wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:17 pm Closing schools is a massively immoral policy IMO and we will discover the effects of it in 10 years time or so.
We will discover the effects of not closing them a lot quicker ...
I run a lot of training (for adults). It is something I am good at, I walk through the theory slowly, ask questions, stop for questions, work through examples, show demo videos etc. Then when I send groups off to have a practice, if they're doing so online at least 10% will do entirely the opposite of what they're supposed to do, and most of the rest do significantly worse than groups I train face to face. This is professional adults taking training that has direct consequences for their job.
I end each day I do it genuinely shattered from the energy it takes just to keep things running as they should do, normally this is the absolute doss part of my job.

Christ knows what it's like dealing with ordinary kids, let alone those with learning difficulties, difficult home set ups or lack of working space etc. I know there's plenty of research on the impact of the summer holidays on these kids, imagine lockdowns and virtual learning.

I know there's no perfect solutions but for me it's clear - if the trade off is between the education and wellbeing of kids and the health of the unvaccinated then fuck the unvaccinated. I have some sympathy for those from the former Eastern Bloc on their scepticism but in the end the unvaccinated have failed to do their civic duty and whilst it's their choice, it's time for them to take the consequences, not others.
Was at the club rugby School today.

Missing about 10 kids already (covid)
All the kids will end up contaminated with the teachers likely getting it a few times.
Dinsdale Piranha
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A friend just got covid. He has spent the last couple of years going to ridiculous lengths to avoid giving it to his 102 year old dad.

He caught it from his dad :lolno: (who is fine)
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