So, coronavirus...

[dpedin]

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/saji ... 75551.html

A lot of anti vax mob going to latch on to this guy.

Steve James, a consultant anaesthetist at King’s College Hospital in London who has worked in the ICU since early 2020 treating Covid patients, told Sajid Javid why he did not believe in vaccination.

Mr James told the PA news agency he did not believe Covid-19 was causing “very significant problems” for young people, adding that his patients in the ICU had been “extremely overweight” with multiple other co-morbidities.

…

He told Sajid Javid he was “not happy” about the new rules. He said: “I have not had a vaccination. I do not want to have a vaccination. The vaccines are reducing transmission only for about eight weeks for Delta, with Omicron it’s probably less.

“And for that, I would be dismissed if I don’t have a vaccine? The science isn’t strong enough.” He told the minister that a colleague held the same position.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dont ... -9kzfk8qs7

Watched that clip on BBC news last night, Javid was virtually speechless and the other medical staff somewhat embarrassed!!!

I am not surprised.

I have worked with and have a lot of friends who are doctors, GPs, dentists and hospital consultants. I play golf with lots of them. Doctors are just normal people who had an aptitude for academic work and did well at school and Uni exams! As a result there is the same broad range of people in the profession including some, a few, who are real ignorant, rude numpties as there are in every other profession. Whilst extremely knowledgable about their own specialties they can be very uninformed or indeed ignorant about others. Most docs know the limits of their expertise and will say so and seek advice from others but unfortunately a few are like politicians, believe their own hype and think, because they come from a privileged background in many cases, they are superior beings. These guys are the General Melchetts from Blackadder! Like the doctor in the clip these are the most dangerous ones! On the other hand some of the docs I have met have been incredibly clever and have amazed me with the astonishing things they achieve in their field ... as are some of the engineers, accountants, teachers, etc I have had the pleasure I of working with/meeting.

[dpedin]

Get vaccinated/boosted!

[dpedin]

Cant see any obvious big dip in testing numbers:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing


Its obvious we have reached the peak IMO.

There have been well reported problems with LFT kit supply and access to PCR testing around the country since Christmas - for example see article from NE from a few days ago https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk ... s-22630353.

Problems with PCR testing capacity has driven the Gov to change policy and if you are asymptomatic but positive with a LFT then you won't need to have a PCR test as of 11th. The supply issues with LFT kits is why the Gov is supplying them directly to the identified 100,000 key workers to ensure they can keep essential services going. How many folk who use a LFT only then report the result on line?

To be honest with 1 in 15 in England currently having covid - 3.3 million - as per latest ONS report - then mass PCR testing is now a waste of time and resource, there is not sufficient capacity to measure the number of new cases. We will continue to do PCR testing for key groups and in order to be able to do genomic testing and monitoring but using PCR tests as a measure of cases across England and the UK is now not feasible, hence the Gov taking a more targeted approach.

See the attached re counting covid cases

https://fullfact.org/health/lateral-flo ... -counting/

[dpedin]

Get vaccinated/boosted!

Another graph showing benefits of vaccination, if your not vaccinated I am not sure omicron is all that mild!

[Blackmac]

Get vaccinated/boosted!

Jesus. How can people argue the effectiveness.

[SaintK]

Spoiler

Show

Get vaccinated/boosted!

Jesus. How can people argue the effectiveness.

The loons on PR will..........continually

[Ymx]

Is it just me or is there a different tone coming through from news now.

Admittedly the real agenda in this one is to swipe at the NHS govt mishandling over the years.

But seem to be less doomed click bait stories than of Dec time.

Or perhaps it’s because of my reading of certain stories and what then gets promoted for me to read.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59909860

Is this NHS crisis really worse than ones before?

The headlines were terrifying. Hospitals facing intolerable pressures as patients left dying in corridors, the BBC reported.
It got so bad that 68 leading A&E doctors wrote to the prime minister to spell out their concerns.

This is not now though. It was the winter of 2017-18 - the last bad flu season when more than 300 people a day were dying from that virus at one point.

And that was not even a one-off. In January 2016 hospitals were cancelling routine operations, telling patients to stay away from A&E if they could, and emergency treatment areas were being set up outside some units - just as they are now.

The truth is the past decade has been a story of lengthening waits and declining performance.
A&E waits are the best barometer of this. The proportion of patients waiting less than four hours - a key metric in measuring NHS effectiveness - has been gradually eroded.

I don’t recall that for some reason. 300 a day deaths?

[Ymx]

Omicron is ‘first ray of light’ in Covid pandemic, claims expert

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/omic ... 75618.html

[fishfoodie]

Is it just me or is there a different tone coming through from news now.

Admittedly the real agenda in this one is to swipe at the NHS govt mishandling over the years.

But seem to be less doomed click bait stories than of Dec time.

Or perhaps it’s because of my reading of certain stories and what then gets promoted for me to read.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59909860

Is this NHS crisis really worse than ones before?

The headlines were terrifying. Hospitals facing intolerable pressures as patients left dying in corridors, the BBC reported.
It got so bad that 68 leading A&E doctors wrote to the prime minister to spell out their concerns.

This is not now though. It was the winter of 2017-18 - the last bad flu season when more than 300 people a day were dying from that virus at one point.

And that was not even a one-off. In January 2016 hospitals were cancelling routine operations, telling patients to stay away from A&E if they could, and emergency treatment areas were being set up outside some units - just as they are now.

The truth is the past decade has been a story of lengthening waits and declining performance.
A&E waits are the best barometer of this. The proportion of patients waiting less than four hours - a key metric in measuring NHS effectiveness - has been gradually eroded.

I don’t recall that for some reason. 300 a day deaths?

Or ... are the Tories astro-turfing ?

do the Tories use the; "inefficiency", of the NHS; as a justification for ramping up the privatization ?

Everything can be spun as a problem with the NHS; & not the Tories.

100,000 vacancies; well the private sector is a much nicer place to work... etc, etc

[Ymx]

It’s definitely not written in favour of the Tories, it’s the beeb after all.

This should not come as a surprise, as NHS spending has been squeezed.

Between 2010 and 2019 the amount spent on health was well below that traditionally given since the birth of the NHS, making it difficult to keep up with the needs of the ageing population.

During that period, the Tories have been in power - albeit with the Lib Dems for the first five years.

[Biffer]

I don’t recall that for some reason. 300 a day deaths?

That's because it doesn't get mentioned.

A bad winter flu season has maybe 20,000 deaths. That's 65-70 days at 300/day

[dpedin]

I don’t recall that for some reason. 300 a day deaths?

That's because it doesn't get mentioned.

A bad winter flu season has maybe 20,000 deaths. That's 65-70 days at 300/day

We don't have 20,000 deaths due to flu. These are the numbers for deaths from flu and pneumonia - they are coded together in the death stats. Flu deaths are actually a lot smaller. Pneumonia can be caused by flu, lots will be but there are lots of other reasons why folk get pneumonia and die from it. See https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transpar ... 019and2020

[Ymx]

Another graph showing benefits of vaccination, if your not vaccinated I am not sure omicron is all that mild!

Why don’t we have this more readily published?

Covid deaths as split by vaccinated v unvaccinated

[Ymx]

Found this. Sounds like it’s been adjusted for age / per 100k

ASMR



The top number is a “tiny” bit higher than the others

[Biffer]

I don’t recall that for some reason. 300 a day deaths?

That's because it doesn't get mentioned.

A bad winter flu season has maybe 20,000 deaths. That's 65-70 days at 300/day

We don't have 20,000 deaths due to flu. These are the numbers for deaths from flu and pneumonia - they are coded together in the death stats. Flu deaths are actually a lot smaller. Pneumonia can be caused by flu, lots will be but there are lots of other reasons why folk get pneumonia and die from it. See https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transpar ... 019and2020

Yeah, but that’s where the three hundred deaths a day figure comes from, flu and pneumonia.

[TheFrog]

Found this. Sounds like it’s been adjusted for age / per 100k

ASMR



The top number is a “tiny” bit higher than the others

Suspect this doesn't include Omicron's impact and is a study dating back a few months.

Interesting to see the rise in numbers 21 dats after the second jab. Wonder if this is linked to the age of the population in that sample or not.

Once again, impossible to interpret data without the full backdrop.

[TheFrog]

I don’t recall that for some reason. 300 a day deaths?

That's because it doesn't get mentioned.

A bad winter flu season has maybe 20,000 deaths. That's 65-70 days at 300/day

We don't have 20,000 deaths due to flu. These are the numbers for deaths from flu and pneumonia - they are coded together in the death stats. Flu deaths are actually a lot smaller. Pneumonia can be caused by flu, lots will be but there are lots of other reasons why folk get pneumonia and die from it. See https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transpar ... 019and2020

Puku shared some relevant charts (from an NHS report) here:

https://forum.planetrugby.com/viewtopic ... tart=54720

Don't manage to get the pictures link on my phone and therefore can't post them directly. But one post shows the impact of COVID vs Flu.

[Niegs]

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/saji ... 75551.html

A lot of anti vax mob going to latch on to this guy.



https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dont ... -9kzfk8qs7

Watched that clip on BBC news last night, Javid was virtually speechless and the other medical staff somewhat embarrassed!!!

I am not surprised.

I have worked with and have a lot of friends who are doctors, GPs, dentists and hospital consultants. I play golf with lots of them. Doctors are just normal people who had an aptitude for academic work and did well at school and Uni exams! As a result there is the same broad range of people in the profession including some, a few, who are real ignorant, rude numpties as there are in every other profession. Whilst extremely knowledgable about their own specialties they can be very uninformed or indeed ignorant about others. Most docs know the limits of their expertise and will say so and seek advice from others but unfortunately a few are like politicians, believe their own hype and think, because they come from a privileged background in many cases, they are superior beings. These guys are the General Melchetts from Blackadder! Like the doctor in the clip these are the most dangerous ones! On the other hand some of the docs I have met have been incredibly clever and have amazed me with the astonishing things they achieve in their field ... as are some of the engineers, accountants, teachers, etc I have had the pleasure I of working with/meeting.

I've wondered, especially after becoming friends with some nurses who've complained about their doctors, if 'doctor' is a lot like politics or business CEOs where a good number are massive egoists who do it for the money and prestige before the, you know, helping people thing? I've certainly taught a few students in private schools who were 'destined' to do it (i.e. pushed into it by parents) for the honour without expressing any desire to make a difference in people's lives.

A beef I have with reporting things like the above, at least with our media, is that they seem to be including among 'healthcare workers' people like chiropractors, naturopaths, and care home employees.

[dpedin]

That's because it doesn't get mentioned.

A bad winter flu season has maybe 20,000 deaths. That's 65-70 days at 300/day

We don't have 20,000 deaths due to flu. These are the numbers for deaths from flu and pneumonia - they are coded together in the death stats. Flu deaths are actually a lot smaller. Pneumonia can be caused by flu, lots will be but there are lots of other reasons why folk get pneumonia and die from it. See https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transpar ... 019and2020

Yeah, but that’s where the three hundred deaths a day figure comes from, flu and pneumonia.

Yeh but the 20k+ deaths are for both flu and pneumonia and pneumonia can be caused by a range of viral, bacterial and fungal infections. There will be a number of medical conditions for which patients will go on to develop pneumonia and possibly die from it.

The notes to the data also say that the numbers are for where flu and pneumonia were mentioned anywhere on the death certificate and not just the underlying cause of death. This will inflate the numbers - many of the number will include patients who died with pneumonia not because of it.

The true figure of death due to influenza in 2019 is probably somewhere between the 1,223 who were coded as for dying with flu and the 26,342 who died from either flu and pneumonia.

[petej]

We don't have 20,000 deaths due to flu. These are the numbers for deaths from flu and pneumonia - they are coded together in the death stats. Flu deaths are actually a lot smaller. Pneumonia can be caused by flu, lots will be but there are lots of other reasons why folk get pneumonia and die from it. See https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transpar ... 019and2020

Yeah, but that’s where the three hundred deaths a day figure comes from, flu and pneumonia.

Yeh but the 20k+ deaths are for both flu and pneumonia and pneumonia can be caused by a range of viral, bacterial and fungal infections. There will be a number of medical conditions for which patients will go on to develop pneumonia and possibly die from it.

The notes to the data also say that the numbers are for where flu and pneumonia were mentioned anywhere on the death certificate and not just the underlying cause of death. This will inflate the numbers - many of the number will include patients who died with pneumonia not because of it.

The true figure of death due to influenza in 2019 is probably somewhere between the 1,223 who were coded as for dying with flu and the 26,342 who died from either flu and pneumonia.

You are treading on thin ice with that point. A lot of COVID patients die with pneumonia and other respiratory infections. An awful lot of COVID patients die due to co-morbidities particularly very old people or fat people or diabetic people or people with dementia. At this point with the immunity wall as it is in the UK now I suspect next winter COVID very much will be comparable to flu.

[dpedin]

Yeah, but that’s where the three hundred deaths a day figure comes from, flu and pneumonia.

Yeh but the 20k+ deaths are for both flu and pneumonia and pneumonia can be caused by a range of viral, bacterial and fungal infections. There will be a number of medical conditions for which patients will go on to develop pneumonia and possibly die from it.

The notes to the data also say that the numbers are for where flu and pneumonia were mentioned anywhere on the death certificate and not just the underlying cause of death. This will inflate the numbers - many of the number will include patients who died with pneumonia not because of it.

The true figure of death due to influenza in 2019 is probably somewhere between the 1,223 who were coded as for dying with flu and the 26,342 who died from either flu and pneumonia.

You are treading on thin ice with that point. A lot of COVID patients die with pneumonia and other respiratory infections. An awful lot of COVID patients die due to co-morbidities particularly very old people or fat people or diabetic people or people with dementia. At this point with the immunity wall as it is in the UK now I suspect next winter COVID very much will be comparable to flu.

It is a complicated picture and I don't disagree with some of what you say but the only point I was making was about the claim of 20k+ deaths due to flu not being accurate. I was trying to show why this not be an accurate figure - I think the ONS data shows why this is the case. However all the ONS death data is wholly dependant on what individual doctors put down as underlying cause of death and other causes of death on the death certificate, they are different, as I mention in my post and as noted in the footnote to the ONS data.

I don't make any claims about the cause of death, underlying cause of death or co-morbidities of people dying with or because of covid, you do. This is a whole other discussion.

I honestly hope you are correct about next winter and covid and share some of your optimism however it all depends on what other variants of concern appear over the next 9-12 months and if they escape the vaccine and if they are more virulent. We didn't really know much about omicron 2-3 months ago and only one month ago Delta was still the dominant variant and yet Omicron is now dominant and has spread across the world very very quickly. Until we really super charge mass vaccinations across the under-developed world we are really going forward with our fingers crossed.

[Wrinkles]

I don’t recall that for some reason. 300 a day deaths?

That's because it doesn't get mentioned.

A bad winter flu season has maybe 20,000 deaths. That's 65-70 days at 300/day

We don't have 20,000 deaths due to flu. These are the numbers for deaths from flu and pneumonia - they are coded together in the death stats. Flu deaths are actually a lot smaller. Pneumonia can be caused by flu, lots will be but there are lots of other reasons why folk get pneumonia and die from it. See https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transpar ... 019and2020

The one time I know I had flu was just after Christmas 1999. According to the figures, that winter saw around 45,000 excess deaths (53,000 given the current population), and that was without routinely testing people to see if they had flu. Would be interesting to know how many had it that winter.

[petej]

You are treading on thin ice with that point. A lot of COVID patients die with pneumonia and other respiratory infections. An awful lot of COVID patients die due to co-morbidities particularly very old people or fat people or diabetic people or people with dementia. At this point with the immunity wall as it is in the UK now I suspect next winter COVID very much will be comparable to flu.

It is a complicated picture and I don't disagree with some of what you say but the only point I was making was about the claim of 20k+ deaths due to flu not being accurate. I was trying to show why this not be an accurate figure - I think the ONS data shows why this is the case. However all the ONS death data is wholly dependant on what individual doctors put down as underlying cause of death and other causes of death on the death certificate, they are different, as I mention in my post and as noted in the footnote to the ONS data.

I don't make any claims about the cause of death, underlying cause of death or co-morbidities of people dying with or because of covid, you do. This is a whole other discussion.

I honestly hope you are correct about next winter and covid and share some of your optimism however it all depends on what other variants of concern appear over the next 9-12 months and if they escape the vaccine and if they are more virulent. We didn't really know much about omicron 2-3 months ago and only one month ago Delta was still the dominant variant and yet Omicron is now dominant and has spread across the world very very quickly. Until we really super charge mass vaccinations across the under-developed world we are really going forward with our fingers crossed.

You've rather wonderfully posted about flu and pneumonia and not being due to flu which is funnily very similar to the argument around COVID and the whole with covid and due to covid which is what I was admittedly indirectly trying to point out. Personally, I wouldn't have debated the flu number because I know similar arguments can made around COVID. This is the very reason we have deaths within 28 days of a positive test metric because we needed something that was easy to count.

[dpedin]

You are treading on thin ice with that point. A lot of COVID patients die with pneumonia and other respiratory infections. An awful lot of COVID patients die due to co-morbidities particularly very old people or fat people or diabetic people or people with dementia. At this point with the immunity wall as it is in the UK now I suspect next winter COVID very much will be comparable to flu.

It is a complicated picture and I don't disagree with some of what you say but the only point I was making was about the claim of 20k+ deaths due to flu not being accurate. I was trying to show why this not be an accurate figure - I think the ONS data shows why this is the case. However all the ONS death data is wholly dependant on what individual doctors put down as underlying cause of death and other causes of death on the death certificate, they are different, as I mention in my post and as noted in the footnote to the ONS data.

I don't make any claims about the cause of death, underlying cause of death or co-morbidities of people dying with or because of covid, you do. This is a whole other discussion.

I honestly hope you are correct about next winter and covid and share some of your optimism however it all depends on what other variants of concern appear over the next 9-12 months and if they escape the vaccine and if they are more virulent. We didn't really know much about omicron 2-3 months ago and only one month ago Delta was still the dominant variant and yet Omicron is now dominant and has spread across the world very very quickly. Until we really super charge mass vaccinations across the under-developed world we are really going forward with our fingers crossed.

You've rather wonderfully posted about flu and pneumonia and not being due to flu which is funnily very similar to the argument around COVID and the whole with covid and due to covid which is what I was admittedly indirectly trying to point out. Personally, I wouldn't have debated the flu number because I know similar arguments can made around COVID. This is the very reason we have deaths within 28 days of a positive test metric because we needed something that was easy to count.

You've lost me now!

[fishfoodie]

It is a complicated picture and I don't disagree with some of what you say but the only point I was making was about the claim of 20k+ deaths due to flu not being accurate. I was trying to show why this not be an accurate figure - I think the ONS data shows why this is the case. However all the ONS death data is wholly dependant on what individual doctors put down as underlying cause of death and other causes of death on the death certificate, they are different, as I mention in my post and as noted in the footnote to the ONS data.

I don't make any claims about the cause of death, underlying cause of death or co-morbidities of people dying with or because of covid, you do. This is a whole other discussion.

I don't know if I've made the statement on here; but I've said it to friends:

"The UK is seeing lower death rates now; because they killed so many vulnerable people last year":

Whether it gets logged as; Flu, or Pneumonia; or Covid; if you're vulnerable: & no one is making any efforts to shield you; you die from whatever is going around.

Last year the UK did SFA to protect the vulnerable groups over Christmas; & they died in large numbers in the New Year; & because they can't die twice; now the UK's mortality numbers look a bit better; because they could only die the once.

I think the overall excess death figures are going to be what ultimately ends up what Governments get judged by; & it's not hard to see the 150k figure for the UK; being multiplied by x2.

[Calculon]

That would have marginal impact. There will still be millions of vulnerable people, and of course each year thousands of people will become (more) vulnerable due to developing comorbidities.
The lower death rate is due to increased immunity and a variant causing less severe disease.

Shielding the vulnerable is fine as long as it doesn't mean locking down society.

[dpedin]

It is a complicated picture and I don't disagree with some of what you say but the only point I was making was about the claim of 20k+ deaths due to flu not being accurate. I was trying to show why this not be an accurate figure - I think the ONS data shows why this is the case. However all the ONS death data is wholly dependant on what individual doctors put down as underlying cause of death and other causes of death on the death certificate, they are different, as I mention in my post and as noted in the footnote to the ONS data.

I don't make any claims about the cause of death, underlying cause of death or co-morbidities of people dying with or because of covid, you do. This is a whole other discussion.

I don't know if I've made the statement on here; but I've said it to friends:

"The UK is seeing lower death rates now; because they killed so many vulnerable people last year":

Whether it gets logged as; Flu, or Pneumonia; or Covid; if you're vulnerable: & no one is making any efforts to shield you; you die from whatever is going around.

Last year the UK did SFA to protect the vulnerable groups over Christmas; & they died in large numbers in the New Year; & because they can't die twice; now the UK's mortality numbers look a bit better; because they could only die the once.

I think the overall excess death figures are going to be what ultimately ends up what Governments get judged by; & it's not hard to see the 150k figure for the UK; being multiplied by x2.

Except we are not seeing lower deaths rates! Excess deaths - from all causes - have been higher than expected every week since July last year, by about 1,500 a week when compared to the 5 year average prior to covid.

[dpedin]

It is a complicated picture and I don't disagree with some of what you say but the only point I was making was about the claim of 20k+ deaths due to flu not being accurate. I was trying to show why this not be an accurate figure - I think the ONS data shows why this is the case. However all the ONS death data is wholly dependant on what individual doctors put down as underlying cause of death and other causes of death on the death certificate, they are different, as I mention in my post and as noted in the footnote to the ONS data.

I don't make any claims about the cause of death, underlying cause of death or co-morbidities of people dying with or because of covid, you do. This is a whole other discussion.

I honestly hope you are correct about next winter and covid and share some of your optimism however it all depends on what other variants of concern appear over the next 9-12 months and if they escape the vaccine and if they are more virulent. We didn't really know much about omicron 2-3 months ago and only one month ago Delta was still the dominant variant and yet Omicron is now dominant and has spread across the world very very quickly. Until we really super charge mass vaccinations across the under-developed world we are really going forward with our fingers crossed.

You've rather wonderfully posted about flu and pneumonia and not being due to flu which is funnily very similar to the argument around COVID and the whole with covid and due to covid which is what I was admittedly indirectly trying to point out. Personally, I wouldn't have debated the flu number because I know similar arguments can made around COVID. This is the very reason we have deaths within 28 days of a positive test metric because we needed something that was easy to count.

You've lost me now!

This might help - tweet from UK National ICU Report. He goes on to say 'So Covid (excluding the crazy peaks) is double the ICU healthcare burden of pneumonia and more than ten times that of Flu. Do not compare Covid with Flu! Covid is far more destructive.'

[Calculon]

And here we go, 25 cases of “ Deltacron” detected in Cyprus

[mos_eisely_]

And here we go, 25 cases of “ Deltacron” detected in Cyprus

[petej]

You've rather wonderfully posted about flu and pneumonia and not being due to flu which is funnily very similar to the argument around COVID and the whole with covid and due to covid which is what I was admittedly indirectly trying to point out. Personally, I wouldn't have debated the flu number because I know similar arguments can made around COVID. This is the very reason we have deaths within 28 days of a positive test metric because we needed something that was easy to count.

You've lost me now!

This might help - tweet from UK National ICU Report. He goes on to say 'So Covid (excluding the crazy peaks) is double the ICU healthcare burden of pneumonia and more than ten times that of Flu. Do not compare Covid with Flu! Covid is far more destructive.'

My point was about convenient metrics. deaths within 28 days of a positive test is a convenient metric (though actually one that becomes less good with such a high prevalence of covid-do you know why?), combining flu and pneumonia is convenient as you aren't going to run a test for every respiratory infections on everyone that dies.

You link another spanner engaged in the twitter covid battle of fuckwits. in many ways the similarities between the covid is dreadful numpties and anti lockdown numpties is funny. They are both totally locked into their identities and belief systems with a tendency to treat variables as constants. Covids destructiveness is decreasing through increased population immunity (vaccination and/or infection) and a decrease in severity (though that could go the other way as well) which actually the ICNARC graph indicates nicely. I do love that the ICNARC graph has the omicron wave admission in December to be similar to Dec 16, 17, 18, 19 pneumonia admission it confirms that the spanner is indeed a numpty.

[dpedin]

You've lost me now!

This might help - tweet from UK National ICU Report. He goes on to say 'So Covid (excluding the crazy peaks) is double the ICU healthcare burden of pneumonia and more than ten times that of Flu. Do not compare Covid with Flu! Covid is far more destructive.'

My point was about convenient metrics. deaths within 28 days of a positive test is a convenient metric (though actually one that becomes less good with such a high prevalence of covid-do you know why?), combining flu and pneumonia is convenient as you aren't going to run a test for every respiratory infections on everyone that dies.

You link another spanner engaged in the twitter covid battle of fuckwits. in many ways the similarities between the covid is dreadful numpties and anti lockdown numpties is funny. They are both totally locked into their identities and belief systems with a tendency to treat variables as constants. Covids destructiveness is decreasing through increased population immunity (vaccination and/or infection) and a decrease in severity (though that could go the other way as well) which actually the ICNARC graph indicates nicely. I do love that the ICNARC graph has the omicron wave admission in December to be similar to Dec 16, 17, 18, 19 pneumonia admission it confirms that the spanner is indeed a numpty.

You are correct - the impact of vaccination and boosters has so far reduced the number of admissions into ICU of patients with omicron - no one is disputing this but this really wasn't the point of the discussion! The original point was the overcounting of flu admission by combining flu and pneumonia patients. Helpfully the graphs I posted show the difference between all pneumonia admissions and flu admissions as defined by the ICNARC, based on medical coding by doctors, which I thought would be the interesting point given that this is what we were discussing? He and the ICNARC also make the point that covid, even with the omicron variant, is still much more serious than flu. If you look at both graphs, allowing for differences in scales, then this becomes clear.

I'm not really sure what it is you have about fully qualified and practicing medics and how qualified you are to call a medical consultant a 'spanner' or a 'fuckwit'? However all this guy is actually doing is copy graphs from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre Report published on 7th January ... I suppose they are all spanners and fuckwits too?

[Ymx]

Yeah, lay off the language.

I must admit I had it in my head that omicron coupled with vaccinations had reduced covid to pretty much flu levels of deaths, if not less.

Just on the over reporting. Both are over reported. Flu being coupled with pneumonia. Covid with … well absolutely anything else they may have had (even probably flu). Even counting those catching this infectious bastard in the hospitals from staff and other patients.

The 2 measures are the 28 day one which has become less meaningful because of how infectious it is. So many incidental infections.

The other being the death certificate, but which is a several weeks out of date (not great for measuring omicron yet).

[Ymx]

Provisional data in grey. Really old for the certified covid deaths

[Ymx]

I guess to put it in perspective. Covid as a fraction.




It’s now very small in comparison with general weekly deaths.

Also it slightly dismisses the theory of vulnerable already dead.

[fishfoodie]

I guess to put it in perspective. Covid as a fraction.




It’s now very small in comparison with general weekly deaths.

Also it slightly dismisses the theory of vulnerable already dead.

that graph looks extra-ordinarily unlikely !

Is the UK the only Country on the planet not seeing excess deaths ?

[Ymx]

It’s real from ons. Scroll down page for chart.

The excess are those just above the black marker.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... cember2021

[Biffer]

I guess to put it in perspective. Covid as a fraction.




It’s now very small in comparison with general weekly deaths.

Also it slightly dismisses the theory of vulnerable already dead.

that graph looks extra-ordinarily unlikely !

Is the UK the only Country on the planet not seeing excess deaths ?

Not sure where you're getting 'no excess deaths' from on that graph. It shows 1500-2000 or so excess every week since the summer in the UK, and 5-10,000 some weeks in last winter's peak.

[tc27]

I guess to put it in perspective. Covid as a fraction.




It’s now very small in comparison with general weekly deaths.

Also it slightly dismisses the theory of vulnerable already dead.

that graph looks extra-ordinarily unlikely !

Is the UK the only Country on the planet not seeing excess deaths ?

Not sure where you're getting 'no excess deaths' from on that graph. It shows 1500-2000 or so excess every week since the summer in the UK, and 5-10,000 some weeks in last winter's peak.

What I think eyeballing that chart is particularly post vaccines is could you convince most people that that it justifies shuttering up and possibly forever closing parts of the hospitability industry, stopping swathe of amateur sports activities and closing stadiums? All whilst suppressing economic activity and printing and creating billions in extra debt to finance.

I realize the Y axis is in thousands and very death is a tragedy in its own way but the context is we live in a nation of 65 million people...at some point a decision on the cost benefit of further restrictions has to be taken.

[Slick]

that graph looks extra-ordinarily unlikely !

Is the UK the only Country on the planet not seeing excess deaths ?

Not sure where you're getting 'no excess deaths' from on that graph. It shows 1500-2000 or so excess every week since the summer in the UK, and 5-10,000 some weeks in last winter's peak.

What I think eyeballing that chart is particularly post vaccines is could you convince most people that that it justifies shuttering up and possibly forever closing parts of the hospitability industry, stopping swathe of amateur sports activities and closing stadiums? All whilst suppressing economic activity and printing and creating billions in extra debt to finance.

I realize the Y axis is in thousands and very death is a tragedy in its own way but the context is we live in a nation of 65 million people...at some point a decision on the cost benefit of further restrictions has to be taken.

I think most people have made that decision already. I don't think I've spoken to anyone recently who hasn't been critical of the current situation in Scotland and is just moving on. My worry is if we don't open up things like hospitality and sporting events sharpish then folk are even going to start abandoning simple measures like mask wearing as they have had enough. Critical couple of weeks coming.