UK Local & Assembly Elections 2022

[GogLais]

Almost the big 400 for Tory losses now. A remarkable battering.

Nice little test run for Labour, & the Lib Dems on cooperating, ahead of the main event.

Just saw someone suggest that the Tories might call a GE as early as this year, which does make a good bit of sense.

I get the point in what I’ve deleted but the obvious question would be why? Less than three years after the previous one and with a comfortable majority.

[fishfoodie]

Almost the big 400 for Tory losses now. A remarkable battering.

Nice little test run for Labour, & the Lib Dems on cooperating, ahead of the main event.

Just saw someone suggest that the Tories might call a GE as early as this year, which does make a good bit of sense.

I get the point in what I’ve deleted but the obvious question would be why? Less than three years after the previous one and with a comfortable majority.

I'll do the classic Irish thing & answer a question with a question

When I took redundancy from my last employer, I had a chat with a friend who was also deciding whether or not to take the offer; & we agreed that the decision came down to whether or we'd be better off staying, or taking a risk, & the money & going. I summed up my logic for taking the money & running with a question to him.

"Do you think this management can turn this shit show around ?"

If you were to ask Tory MPs that question; what do you think the majority would answer ?

[Rhubarb & Custard]

No chance Boris will call an election, he's been very clear we couldn't even have a Tory leadership contest on the back of him stepping down because that would be too distracting from the cost of living crisis and conflict in Ukraine. And if we know nothing else about Boris he's a man of his word!

[fishfoodie]

No chance Boris will call an election, he's been very clear we couldn't even have a Tory leadership contest on the back of him stepping down because that would be too distracting from the cost of living crisis and conflict in Ukraine. And if we know nothing else about Boris he's a man of his word!

[C69]

Watching the News reports this morning this shows that the zeitgeist is that the NI results show a massive seed change in Politics and opinion there.
Personally I think that the death of Unionism is being over played.

[Line6 HXFX]

The union is dead. People hate it, like Brexit there are no arguments for it that stand the test of reality..unless you are some former Scot, Welsh or Northern Irishist..who left to go to england, but long to either go back or bring their entire family there so want to keep the union link alive, for their own.lpersonal, unique to them economic reasons.
I mean I have no idea why you would want to inflict conservatism forever..on the nations you left, because emotionally you still feel attached to them.. .
.but hey ho.

[_Os_]

Spent awhile looking through the NI results. Picked Mid-Ulster for a closer look.

It's a rural constituency, the bigger urban areas are still very small Magherafelt/Cookstown/Coalisland. The country roads aren't uninhabited and have houses dotted around. Those houses often aren't small, among unionists it leans middle class.

Unionists there tend to not be moderate, the UUP lost ground there in 1970s when unionism shifted towards loyalism and in this constituency it never recovered. The UVF Mid-Ulster brigade has the reputation it does for a reason too. In Westminster elections before the 1990s nationalists and unionists had a roughly equal amount of voters, so whichever concentrated their votes into a single party won. But since Sinn Fein became the dominant nationalist party in the 90s and some boundary changes, it's been a Sinn Fein safe seat since 1997. In Westminster elections any unionist voter there, is purely voting on principle without any hope of winning.

Westminster elections since 1992:
2019: SF (20.4k), DUP (10.9k), SDLP (6.3k), Alliance (3.5k), UUP (2.6k)
2017: SF (25.4k), DUP (12.5k), SDLP (4.5k), UUP (3k), Alliance (1k)
2015: SF (19.9k), UUP (6.3k), DUP (5.4k), SDLP (5k), TUV (1.8k), UKIP (863), Alliance (778)
2013: SF (17.4k), Independent (12.7k), SDLP (6.4k), Alliance (487)
2010: SF (21.2k), DUP (5.8k), SDLP (5.8k), UUP (4.5k), TUV (2.9k), Alliance (397)
2005: SF (21.6k), DUP (10.6k), SDLP (7.9k), UUP (4.8k)
2001: SF (25.5k), DUP (15.5k), SDLP (8.3k)
1997: SF (20.2k), DUP (18.4k), SDLP (11.2k), Alliance (460)
1992: DUP (23k), SDLP (16.9k), SF (10.2k), Alliance (1.5k)

In NI Assembly elections unionist parties have gone from each fielding multiple candidates, with 3 or 4 MLAs being elected from unionist parties (from 5 or 6 seats), to each unionist party fielding a single candidate with only 1 unionist MLA being elected (from 5 seats) this election. The trend started in about 2011.

NI Assembly elections since 2011 (first preference).
2022: SF (10.8k), SF (8.1k), SF (8.2k), DUP (8.5k), SDLP (5.1k), TUV (3.8k), Alliance (2.1k), UUP (2.1k), Aontu (1.3k)
2017: SF (10.2k), DUP (9.5k), SF (7.8k), SF (8.1k), SDLP (6.4k), UUP (4.5k), TUV (1.2k), Alliance (1k)
2016: SF (7k), SDLP (6.2k), SF (6.1k), SF (5.8k), UUP (4.8k), DUP (3.6k), DUP (3.7k), TUV (1.8k), Alliance (471)
2011: SF (8.9k), DUP (7.1k), SDLP (5k), UUP (4.4k), SF (5.1k), SF (4.2k), SF (2.6k), TUV (2k), SDLP (1.2k), Alliance (398)

Sinn Fein now completely dominates nationalism, in this constituency SDLP was once the main nationalist party Sinn Fein then took most of that vote by the 2000s. In this 2022 election they've even taken some of that SDLP rump, the first preference SDLP vote in 2022 was very low (and it's unlikely SDLP lost those votes to Aontu). The amount of nationalist voters doesn't seem to have increased at all, they're just very concentrated in Sinn Fein.

Alliance has grown a lot, almost certainly all from former unionist voters. Alliance is now the biggest it has been in this constituency, both in Westminster and NI Assembly elections, although it's a bit smaller in NI Assembly first preferences probably because a unionist MLA can be elected. The interesting thing is it seems to be ending the UUP in this constituency, Alliance was smaller than UKIP in 2017 and became larger than the UUP in 2019 and the same size as the UUP in 2022. In the current political situation (where the UK is weakening), there seems little to distinguish a moderate unionist party from a liberal party, and then it just comes down to which party is better. UUP were all over the place on Brexit it (opposed it then supported it), Alliance always opposed it. There's probably further Alliance growth in eating the UUP vote, and the pitch is something like "we're a more competent party than any of the unionist parties, and when the border poll comes it's up to you". The UUP's problem is how to be a moderate version of something that increasingly does not exist?

The TUV are also growing. In this constituency DUP first preference losses in 2022 clearly went to them, but that's not enough to get TUV from 1.2k to 3.8k. It seems likely that between 2017 and 2022 there was movement between Alliance/UUP/DUP/TUV, and the outcome of that was a much larger Alliance and TUV, much smaller UUP, and marginally smaller DUP. Something similar seems to have happened in Westminster elections between 2017 and 2019, movement between Alliance/UUP/DUP, with the outcome being a marginally smaller UUP and DUP, and much larger Alliance.

Direction of travel looks like further consolidation of the nationalist vote into Sinn Fein, whilst the unionist vote could go two different directions. Either a majority consolidating around DUP/TUV (both trying to outbid each other and pulling themselves into a more extreme position) and a large minority basically abandoning unionism in favour of Alliance. Or something close to the reverse where most unionists opt for Alliance because they want some competent politicians to represent them (but refuse to ever vote for a party with any hint of Irish nationalism about it) and leave the constitutional question to any future border poll, whilst a large minority picks whichever of DUP/TUV wins the battle to be the authentic rump.

I wouldn't be surprised if Alliance takes most of the UUP's remaining vote over the next 10 years, and in constituencies like this where the DUP cannot win much, Alliance potentially becomes the dominant party representing unionists. There doesn't seem to be much stopping Sinn Fein's advance. United Ireland in the 2030s sometime?

[fishfoodie]

The UUP is a shambles. The DUP, & SF have central offices that rule with a rod of Iron, but the UUP is just individual constituencies, & as a result has no strategy, & any leader, is so in name only.

I don't think the Alliance support is solely from the UUP, it has a broad appeal from those who are fed up with the sectarian politics, & is very transfer friendly from the SDLP, & SF, as well as the UUP. The SDLP blamed a lot of their losses on Nationalist voters knowing that SF were in a position to secure the 1st Minister position, & that seems reasonable.

The SDLP has withered since the days of Hume & Mallon; they were giants, & it was always going to be hard to replace them. I'd like to see the party merge with the Alliance, & form a single viable Party.

[_Os_]

The UUP is a shambles. The DUP, & SF have central offices that rule with a rod of Iron, but the UUP is just individual constituencies, & as a result has no strategy, & any leader, is so in name only.

I don't think the Alliance support is solely from the UUP, it has a broad appeal from those who are fed up with the sectarian politics, & is very transfer friendly from the SDLP, & SF, as well as the UUP. The SDLP blamed a lot of their losses on Nationalist voters knowing that SF were in a position to secure the 1st Minister position, & that seems reasonable.

The SDLP has withered since the days of Hume & Mallon; they were giants, & it was always going to be hard to replace them. I'd like to see the party merge with the Alliance, & form a single viable Party.

Good point on the differing party structures, but isn't Alliance also not particularly centralised (which would be typical for a liberal party)?

I've tried to find polling on the support Alliance receives before. All I found was very general "do you vote for a party in the centre?" type stuff, which could refer to a few NI parties (mainly SDLP and Alliance). Alliance has also grown very quickly very recently, so a lot of that polling is dated. I think it's fair to say it's mostly former unionist voters that are boosting them on first preferences though, just looking at the numbers. Good point on the SDLP, from the perspective of the Alliance leadership they're going to be keen on attracting more than only former unionist voters, that means either taking SDLP voters or swallowing the SDLP down the road if they ever get big enough (the latter option has a lot more dangers).

[fishfoodie]

The UUP is a shambles. The DUP, & SF have central offices that rule with a rod of Iron, but the UUP is just individual constituencies, & as a result has no strategy, & any leader, is so in name only.

I don't think the Alliance support is solely from the UUP, it has a broad appeal from those who are fed up with the sectarian politics, & is very transfer friendly from the SDLP, & SF, as well as the UUP. The SDLP blamed a lot of their losses on Nationalist voters knowing that SF were in a position to secure the 1st Minister position, & that seems reasonable.

The SDLP has withered since the days of Hume & Mallon; they were giants, & it was always going to be hard to replace them. I'd like to see the party merge with the Alliance, & form a single viable Party.

Good point on the differing party structures, but isn't Alliance also not particularly centralised (which would be typical for a liberal party)?

I've tried to find polling on the support Alliance receives before. All I found was very general "do you vote for a party in the centre?" type stuff, which could refer to a few NI parties (mainly SDLP and Alliance). Alliance has also grown very quickly very recently, so a lot of that polling is dated. I think it's fair to say it's mostly former unionist voters that are boosting them on first preferences though, just looking at the numbers. Good point on the SDLP, from the perspective of the Alliance leadership they're going to be keen on attracting more than only former unionist voters, that means either taking SDLP voters or swallowing the SDLP down the road if they ever get big enough (the latter option has a lot more dangers).

As you say, they're very typically liberal; they don't rely on a central dogma, coming from a Leader, or some sacred party positions; their selling point is they are socially liberal, & non-sectarian.

If you're looking for what makes people join them, or vote for them, just look at the McIlroy generation. Anytime someone tries to paint him as a Nationalist, he brushes it off as something he's not interested in he, & many of his generation don't define themselves by their religion. The next step for the Alliance is to grow from their middle class demographic, & into the traditional working class one, where the SDLP, & Sinn Fein are on the nationalist side.