What's going on in Ukraine?

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[Flockwitt]

https://www.dailykos.com/story/2022/6/1 ... our-HIMARS

Really good article on logistics. Himars range below.

Yeah there's been a fair bit of discussion about this. The US has over 400 of these systems themselves, let alone their allies. People have pointedly asked why more haven't been sent.

Actually there are probably even more issues than those pointed out. At this time of significant supply chain production problems given the number of rockets these things can fire, handing over a 100 of them could see the use outstrip production real quick. Probably the US has done the right thing here. Once they're in play, then easy to slip a few more in without having to make a song and dance about it at need also.

No question just 4 of them could fire non-stop day and night given the potential attacks of opportunity they'll have in their range. That's the great thing about the CAESERS, they just roll out and do serious damage every single day. With the 155mm ammo essentially unlimited they can use these at will.

[tabascoboy]

Rumours that there was another attack on the Russian forces and equipment on Snake Island - but very much unconfirmed at the moment. It's possible that the sinking of the Russian vessel a few days ago was to facilitate this.

[tabascoboy]

Lithuania has seriously pissed off the Russians:

Russia vows to respond if Lithuania doesn't allow transit of goods to Kaliningrad

Russia has said it will respond to protect its interests if Lithuania doesn't immediately lift its ban on the transit of some goods to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

Lithuanian authorities have banned the movement of goods which are sanctioned by the European Union across its territory - which includes the only rail route between mainland Russia and the province which is sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania.

Banned goods include coal, metals, construction materials and advanced technology.

"Lithuania's decision to blockade the Kaliningrad region is unprecedented and a violation of absolutely everything", declared Putin's talking head Peskov."

Er because nothing Russia has done in the last 4 months is a violation of anything?
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And to add the this the President of Kazakhstan refused again to recognise the so-called independence of the Luhansk and Donetsk Separatist states last week at the St Petersburg Economic Forum while Putin was in attendance.

Reports that Kazakhstan in response to Russia's blocking of Kazakh oil exports blocked 1,700 railcars with Russian coal on its territory, but this is claimed to be fake news.

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[Hellraiser]

Some new casualty figures starting to emerge; unofficial figures of 10-15,000 KIA for Ukraine, but some internal Russian military sources are estimating Russian KIA at 42,000.

[Ymx]

Yeah I was reading 50,000 including the mercs

That’s killed. So what could that add for injured and no longer fit for service.

It’s a crazy number of lives on all sides for this ego driven war of Putins.

[Uncle fester]

China lapping up all the surplus Russian oil.

BBC News - Ukraine war: Russia becomes China's biggest oil supplier
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61861849

[Dinsdale Piranha]

Yeah I was reading 50,000 including the mercs

That’s killed. So what could that add for injured and no longer fit for service.

It’s a crazy number of lives on all sides for this ego driven war of Putins.

To the extent that it's possible to guesstimate, 3:1 would be a decent starting point.

[Blake]

Yeah I was reading 50,000 including the mercs

That’s killed. So what could that add for injured and no longer fit for service.

It’s a crazy number of lives on all sides for this ego driven war of Putins.

So difficult to read much into Russian numbers because they lie so damn much and because you don’t always know if they include or exclude mercs, LPR and DPR fighters. Very convenient to leave those off the press releases because they aren’t “Russians”.

[Flockwitt]

Yep like those 200 husbands who have simply vanished.

Matters will come to a head soon enough. You know the Russians are scraping the barrel when army corps 1 is sending the crap old tanks to support army corps 2 in Popasna. Russia will do all they can to take the Severodonetsk salient. They can’t live with Ukraine holding the other side of the river. But that’s about it you’d have to assume at this point given their glacial progress to date.

A lot will depend on how much smack the new gear can put down on the Russian artillery and logistics through July. Like dear old
Denys smiling because the m777s took out an ammo dump in Izyum.

My personal opinion is that this won’t drag on for years. The modern weapons are just that much more lethal than WW1 for instance and something will have to give.

[tabascoboy]

Huge pro EU, anti Russian supported government protest in Georgia yesterday

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[Marylandolorian]

Russian journalist's Nobel Peace Prize fetches record $103.5 million at auction to aid Ukraine children

https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-n ... 022-06-21/

[Paddington Bear]

Yep like those 200 husbands who have simply vanished.

Matters will come to a head soon enough. You know the Russians are scraping the barrel when army corps 1 is sending the crap old tanks to support army corps 2 in Popasna. Russia will do all they can to take the Severodonetsk salient. They can’t live with Ukraine holding the other side of the river. But that’s about it you’d have to assume at this point given their glacial progress to date.

A lot will depend on how much smack the new gear can put down on the Russian artillery and logistics through July. Like dear old
Denys smiling because the m777s took out an ammo dump in Izyum.

My personal opinion is that this won’t drag on for years. The modern weapons are just that much more lethal than WW1 for instance and something will have to give.

People said that in WW1. A bit before that but Gatling was very hopeful that his gun was so lethal that it would render pitched battle and prolonged war pointless, and here we are.

[tabascoboy]

Maybe another update to this is due soon, I doubt that all losses have been verified but I wouldn't think it's too far off the mark

[Hellraiser]

[TheFrog]

Brave men, these guys fighting knowing that their lives hang on a thin thread. Hats off.

[TheFrog]

Yep like those 200 husbands who have simply vanished.

Matters will come to a head soon enough. You know the Russians are scraping the barrel when army corps 1 is sending the crap old tanks to support army corps 2 in Popasna. Russia will do all they can to take the Severodonetsk salient. They can’t live with Ukraine holding the other side of the river. But that’s about it you’d have to assume at this point given their glacial progress to date.

A lot will depend on how much smack the new gear can put down on the Russian artillery and logistics through July. Like dear old
Denys smiling because the m777s took out an ammo dump in Izyum.

My personal opinion is that this won’t drag on for years. The modern weapons are just that much more lethal than WW1 for instance and something will have to give.

I guess a key factor is the ability to maintain (actually repair) the gears as they wear out through combats and to supply the ammunition required to sustain the fight.

We hear conflicting messages on this and I would be relieved if there could be at least a confirmation from the ammunition manufacturers that their production rates are going up and fast enough.

[Hellraiser]

Yep like those 200 husbands who have simply vanished.

Matters will come to a head soon enough. You know the Russians are scraping the barrel when army corps 1 is sending the crap old tanks to support army corps 2 in Popasna. Russia will do all they can to take the Severodonetsk salient. They can’t live with Ukraine holding the other side of the river. But that’s about it you’d have to assume at this point given their glacial progress to date.

A lot will depend on how much smack the new gear can put down on the Russian artillery and logistics through July. Like dear old
Denys smiling because the m777s took out an ammo dump in Izyum.

My personal opinion is that this won’t drag on for years. The modern weapons are just that much more lethal than WW1 for instance and something will have to give.

I guess a key factor is the ability to maintain (actually repair) the gears as they wear out through combats and to supply the ammunition required to sustain the fight.

We hear conflicting messages on this and I would be relieved if there could be at least a confirmation from the ammunition manufacturers that their production rates are going up and fast enough.

Romania and Slovakia have recommenced production of 152mm ammunition to supply Ukraine.

[Hellraiser]

[petej]

Hopefully they perform as well as the Caesars.

[tabascoboy]

Rumours that there was another attack on the Russian forces and equipment on Snake Island - but very much unconfirmed at the moment. It's possible that the sinking of the Russian vessel a few days ago was to facilitate this.

Further news suggests that this is an ongoing operation that for security reasons info is being held back for now. Meanwhile it now seems that drilling platforms in the Black Sea taken over by Russia in 2014 that aren't that far away were attacked and one is on fire, with the personnel having been evacuated. They had been equipped for observation use, maybe radar. Since Ukraine demonstrated new anti-ship capability possibly with a Harpoon against the tug a few days ago, all these actions may be intended to convince Russia they no longer have carte blanche to use their Black Sea fleet for missile launches and completely put to bed thoughts of a amphibious based assault on Odesa.

[laurent]

Yep like those 200 husbands who have simply vanished.

Matters will come to a head soon enough. You know the Russians are scraping the barrel when army corps 1 is sending the crap old tanks to support army corps 2 in Popasna. Russia will do all they can to take the Severodonetsk salient. They can’t live with Ukraine holding the other side of the river. But that’s about it you’d have to assume at this point given their glacial progress to date.

A lot will depend on how much smack the new gear can put down on the Russian artillery and logistics through July. Like dear old
Denys smiling because the m777s took out an ammo dump in Izyum.

My personal opinion is that this won’t drag on for years. The modern weapons are just that much more lethal than WW1 for instance and something will have to give.

I guess a key factor is the ability to maintain (actually repair) the gears as they wear out through combats and to supply the ammunition required to sustain the fight.

We hear conflicting messages on this and I would be relieved if there could be at least a confirmation from the ammunition manufacturers that their production rates are going up and fast enough.

Romania and Slovakia have recommenced production of 152mm ammunition to supply Ukraine.

One of these will also make barrels

French defence sector has been asked to ramp production too

25% of or modern artillery has been shipped to Ukraine and there are orders to fill as well as rebuild our stock.

[fishfoodie]

Rumours that there was another attack on the Russian forces and equipment on Snake Island - but very much unconfirmed at the moment. It's possible that the sinking of the Russian vessel a few days ago was to facilitate this.

Further news suggests that this is an ongoing operation that for security reasons info is being held back for now. Meanwhile it now seems that drilling platforms in the Black Sea taken over by Russia in 2014 that aren't that far away were attacked and one is on fire, with the personnel having been evacuated. They had been equipped for observation use, maybe radar. Since Ukraine demonstrated new anti-ship capability possibly with a Harpoon against the tug a few days ago, all these actions may be intended to convince Russia they no longer have carte blanche to use their Black Sea fleet for missile launches and completely put to bed thoughts of a amphibious based assault on Odesa.

Some Russians may start to ask what the point of seizing Crimea was, if your ships are now more afraid of coming out of Port, & your action closed the Bosporus, & stirred up an angry neighbour, who's going to sink any ship with a Russian flag, & be cheered on by most of the rest of the world.

Oh; & now because they're acting like dicks, the Baltic will be a NATO zone now, surrounded by enemies.

[Flockwitt]

Yep like those 200 husbands who have simply vanished.

Matters will come to a head soon enough. You know the Russians are scraping the barrel when army corps 1 is sending the crap old tanks to support army corps 2 in Popasna. Russia will do all they can to take the Severodonetsk salient. They can’t live with Ukraine holding the other side of the river. But that’s about it you’d have to assume at this point given their glacial progress to date.

A lot will depend on how much smack the new gear can put down on the Russian artillery and logistics through July. Like dear old
Denys smiling because the m777s took out an ammo dump in Izyum.

My personal opinion is that this won’t drag on for years. The modern weapons are just that much more lethal than WW1 for instance and something will have to give.

People said that in WW1. A bit before that but Gatling was very hopeful that his gun was so lethal that it would render pitched battle and prolonged war pointless, and here we are.

That's not the parallel I was looking to draw there. Rather check out the videos on the CAESERs and their kill counts over a week. Drone enabled modern munitions can't be hidden from. Their reach is beyond the fortified front lines. This isn't like WWI where soldiers could just hunker down, or retreat to rear positions at need. There might be only 4 HIMARs sent, but consider the damage they can do firing every single day for the next six months - they've certainly got no lack of potential targets. By lethality what I mean is that the attrition stakes are constantly being notched up - in a way I don't believe is anything like sustainable "for years".

[Flockwitt]

Hopefully they perform as well as the Caesars.

These are the dogs bollocks and what Ukraine has got on order medium term from production supply.

[Hellraiser]

[fishfoodie]

Yep like those 200 husbands who have simply vanished.

Matters will come to a head soon enough. You know the Russians are scraping the barrel when army corps 1 is sending the crap old tanks to support army corps 2 in Popasna. Russia will do all they can to take the Severodonetsk salient. They can’t live with Ukraine holding the other side of the river. But that’s about it you’d have to assume at this point given their glacial progress to date.

A lot will depend on how much smack the new gear can put down on the Russian artillery and logistics through July. Like dear old
Denys smiling because the m777s took out an ammo dump in Izyum.

My personal opinion is that this won’t drag on for years. The modern weapons are just that much more lethal than WW1 for instance and something will have to give.

People said that in WW1. A bit before that but Gatling was very hopeful that his gun was so lethal that it would render pitched battle and prolonged war pointless, and here we are.

That's not the parallel I was looking to draw there. Rather check out the videos on the CAESERs and their kill counts over a week. Drone enabled modern munitions can't be hidden from. Their reach is beyond the fortified front lines. This isn't like WWI where soldiers could just hunker down, or retreat to rear positions at need. There might be only 4 HIMARs sent, but consider the damage they can do firing every single day for the next six months - they've certainly got no lack of potential targets. By lethality what I mean is that the attrition stakes are constantly being notched up - in a way I don't believe is anything like sustainable "for years".

and in WW I the shells would arrive in fits & starts & land randomly across the landscape.

In 2022, with MLRS, & Time-On-Target coordination, those 4x HIMARS, & associated artillery, can coordinate their fire, so that one minute Private Ivan is rubbing the sleep from his eyes, & 60 seconds later, everything for hundreds of meters around was carpeted with fire, with no time from the first explosion, to get his arse under cover.

With smart munitions the shells aren't even landing randomly, they're looking for that ferrous blob to punch into, or they're fuzed to explode at the perfect height to maximize the effect on Ivan cowering in his slit trench.

[Flockwitt]

Yeah the maths here is easy. The figure I saw was that one gps guided rocket is worth 12 dumb types the Russians use. There are 6 rockets per pod. Each pod can be fired and reloaded at need in minutes (unlike the Russian versions which are single rocket load). That is an awful lot of firepower that is only limited by ammo supply.

[Uncle fester]

Yep like those 200 husbands who have simply vanished.

Matters will come to a head soon enough. You know the Russians are scraping the barrel when army corps 1 is sending the crap old tanks to support army corps 2 in Popasna. Russia will do all they can to take the Severodonetsk salient. They can’t live with Ukraine holding the other side of the river. But that’s about it you’d have to assume at this point given their glacial progress to date.

A lot will depend on how much smack the new gear can put down on the Russian artillery and logistics through July. Like dear old
Denys smiling because the m777s took out an ammo dump in Izyum.

My personal opinion is that this won’t drag on for years. The modern weapons are just that much more lethal than WW1 for instance and something will have to give.

People said that in WW1. A bit before that but Gatling was very hopeful that his gun was so lethal that it would render pitched battle and prolonged war pointless, and here we are.

Don't forget that Russia actually did break in ww1 through a combination of military reversals and domestic unrest.

[fishfoodie]

Yep like those 200 husbands who have simply vanished.

Matters will come to a head soon enough. You know the Russians are scraping the barrel when army corps 1 is sending the crap old tanks to support army corps 2 in Popasna. Russia will do all they can to take the Severodonetsk salient. They can’t live with Ukraine holding the other side of the river. But that’s about it you’d have to assume at this point given their glacial progress to date.

A lot will depend on how much smack the new gear can put down on the Russian artillery and logistics through July. Like dear old
Denys smiling because the m777s took out an ammo dump in Izyum.

My personal opinion is that this won’t drag on for years. The modern weapons are just that much more lethal than WW1 for instance and something will have to give.

People said that in WW1. A bit before that but Gatling was very hopeful that his gun was so lethal that it would render pitched battle and prolonged war pointless, and here we are.

Don't forget that Russia actually did break in ww1 through a combination of military reversals and domestic unrest.

yeah. the poor pricks in the mud started asking themselves why they were dying, so one inbred cunt, could slightly improve their position over another inbred cunt.

Now they're dying by their thousands so that Vlad can loot another billion.

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

Oil refinery in Rostov, Russia. Some debate over what kind of drone this was and from where. Although it's not far from the border with Ukraine it is some distance from UA controlled territory and if launched from there would have entailed a long flight over Russia controlled Donbass.